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Predict the Week 17 flex game! (1 Viewer)

bicycle_seat_sniffer said:
Does jax have anything to play for??  Figure they might sandbag since tenn v jax is likely first round matchup
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A win could knock out a divisional opponent.  

A Steelers victory tonight vs Texans would lock Jags into 3 seed.  So chances are anybody with nagging injury (Fournette, Cam Robinson, Hurns, Lee) would probably rest.

Titans beat Jags first matchup.  If Titans win in week 17, it could set up shades of 1999 when McNair and company beat Jags 3x.

 
JaxBill said:
A win could knock out a divisional opponent.  

A Steelers victory tonight vs Texans would lock Jags into 3 seed.  So chances are anybody with nagging injury (Fournette, Cam Robinson, Hurns, Lee) would probably rest.

Titans beat Jags first matchup.  If Titans win in week 17, it could set up shades of 1999 when McNair and company beat Jags 3x.
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Ok so nothing to play for other than to get the stink of that SF game from their mouths

 
So John Harbaugh is voicing his displeasure at Ravens game moving to 425 NYE. He is worried about fan attendance.

First, what difference does 425 make? Fans can still get wherever they need well before midnight.

Second, I'd be embarrassed if I were a Ravens fan where the coach has called you out.

I get he's going for "us against the world" but seems awfully whiny.

 
JaxBill said:
So John Harbaugh is voicing his displeasure at Ravens game moving to 425 NYE. He is worried about fan attendance.

First, what difference does 425 make? Fans can still get wherever they need well before midnight.

Second, I'd be embarrassed if I were a Ravens fan where the coach has called you out.

I get he's going for "us against the world" but seems awfully whiny.
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He is a Harbaugh, whining is what they do. 

 
Any reason they can't/don't schedule all of the AFC games in one time slot and the NFC in the other?  That would completely eliminate any flex problems in week 17

 
tjnc09 said:
Any reason they can't/don't schedule all of the AFC games in one time slot and the NFC in the other?  That would completely eliminate any flex problems in week 17
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Because KC is on the road (and the Rams are no longer in St. Louis), all four AFC/NFC West games have to take place at 4:00.

 
tjnc09 said:
Why do they have to be at 4:00 though?
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Good luck getting the family up at 6am on a Sunday, to head to the 7am tailgate, for a 10am kickoff.  Is it even legal to sell beer that early? :P

 
Deamon said:
Good luck getting the family up at 6am on a Sunday, to head to the 7am tailgate, for a 10am kickoff.  Is it even legal to sell beer that early? :P
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That's easy, just don't have any home games East of Kansas in week 17. 

;)

 
-OZ- said:
That's easy, just don't have any home games East of Kansas in week 17. 

;)
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I remember reading somewhere when the Rams were still in St. Louis that one of the schedule rules was that either they or the Chiefs had to have a home game in Week 17 in order to maximize flexibility. But now all four NFC West teams are in the Pacific time zone

 
JaxBill said:
So John Harbaugh is voicing his displeasure at Ravens game moving to 425 NYE. He is worried about fan attendance.

First, what difference does 425 make? Fans can still get wherever they need well before midnight.

Second, I'd be embarrassed if I were a Ravens fan where the coach has called you out.

I get he's going for "us against the world" but seems awfully whiny.
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He is upset because it ruins his plans to make his traditional 6 hour New Year's guac dip

-QG

 
Damn, meant to revive this thread before Week 1. Still worth putting our bets in now. A reminder of the ground rules

  • All Week 17 games are divisional matchups
  • The NFL reserves the right to flex any game it wants
  • The most important criteria appears to be that the game has to matter for both teams, independent of the result from any other game.
  • As we learned last year, if no game meets the criteria, there will be no Sunday night game
  • 2018 schedule here
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Let's break this down into categories:

No f'in way

  • Browns-Ravens
  • Dolphins-Bills
  • Raiders-Chiefs
  • Falcons-Bucs (not letting Week 1 sway me from that)
  • Cards-Seahwaks
Possible but unlikely

  • Cowboys-Giants
  • Colts-Titans
  • Jets-Pats
  • Lions-Packers (again, trying not to overreact to Week 1, but hard to see Vikes not contending)
Could happen

  • 49ers-Rams (if SF makes the leap)
  • Bears-Vikings (ditto Chicago)
  • Chargers-Broncos
Most likely candidates

  • Eagles-Washington
  • Jags-Texans
  • Panthers-Saints
  • Bengals-Steelers
I'll put a stake in the ground for Bengals-Steelers. I see Cinci rebounding this year, and I don't see either other team in the division contending. My second-place vote is for Jags-Texans

 
zftcg said:
Damn, meant to revive this thread before Week 1. Still worth putting our bets in now. A reminder of the ground rules

Let's break this down into categories:

No f'in way

  • Browns-Ravens
  • Dolphins-Bills
  • Raiders-Chiefs
  • Falcons-Bucs (not letting Week 1 sway me from that)
  • Cards-Seahwaks
Possible but unlikely

  • Cowboys-Giants
  • Colts-Titans
  • Jets-Pats
  • Lions-Packers (again, trying not to overreact to Week 1, but hard to see Vikes not contending)
Could happen

  • 49ers-Rams (if SF makes the leap)
  • Bears-Vikings (ditto Chicago)
  • Chargers-Broncos
Most likely candidates

  • Eagles-Washington
  • Jags-Texans
  • Panthers-Saints
  • Bengals-Steelers
I'll put a stake in the ground for Bengals-Steelers. I see Cinci rebounding this year, and I don't see either other team in the division contending. My second-place vote is for Jags-Texans
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Eagles @ Washington. Both teams will have 10 wins 

 
zftcg said:
Damn, meant to revive this thread before Week 1. Still worth putting our bets in now. A reminder of the ground rules

Let's break this down into categories:

No f'in way

  • Browns-Ravens
  • Dolphins-Bills
  • Raiders-Chiefs
  • Falcons-Bucs (not letting Week 1 sway me from that)
  • Cards-Seahwaks
Possible but unlikely

  • Cowboys-Giants
  • Colts-Titans
  • Jets-Pats
  • Lions-Packers (again, trying not to overreact to Week 1, but hard to see Vikes not contending)
Could happen

  • 49ers-Rams (if SF makes the leap)
  • Bears-Vikings (ditto Chicago)
  • Chargers-Broncos
Most likely candidates

  • Eagles-Washington
  • Jags-Texans
  • Panthers-Saints
  • Bengals-Steelers
I'll put a stake in the ground for Bengals-Steelers. I see Cinci rebounding this year, and I don't see either other team in the division contending. My second-place vote is for Jags-Texans
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Time for a mid-season check-in. I actually think the categories I laid out at the beginning of the season have held up pretty well. I might bump Bears-Vikings up a little and Jags-Texans down, but both remain plausible. 

At this point, I think the top candidates are Eagles-Washington and Panthers-Saints. The former is more likely to be an elimination game. The latter might be two teams that are just fighting for playoff positioning, but as we've seen in the past, the NFL doesn't mind flexing that type of game. And Bengals-Steelers is still very much in the mix, though as of right now the Steelers look like they may be pulling away from the rest of the division.

 
zftcg said:
Time for a mid-season check-in. I actually think the categories I laid out at the beginning of the season have held up pretty well. I might bump Bears-Vikings up a little and Jags-Texans down, but both remain plausible. 

At this point, I think the top candidates are Eagles-Washington and Panthers-Saints. The former is more likely to be an elimination game. The latter might be two teams that are just fighting for playoff positioning, but as we've seen in the past, the NFL doesn't mind flexing that type of game. And Bengals-Steelers is still very much in the mix, though as of right now the Steelers look like they may be pulling away from the rest of the division.
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Eagles-Skins moving up, Panthers-Saints moving down.

Colts-Titans maybe moving up.  Will see what happens tomorrow.

 
Long Ball Larry said:
Eagles-Skins moving up, Panthers-Saints moving down.

Colts-Titans maybe moving up.  Will see what happens tomorrow.
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Agree on Panthers-Saints. Not sure I buy the other two: Washington is fading (and Dallas seems to be in the driver's seat). Similarly, hard to imagine Houston won't be in the mix for AFC South. 

I'd go so far as to say the likeliest scenarios are either Bears-Vikings or nobody. Unless the Saints collapse and the Panthers rebound (and they do play each other once before Week 17), I really don't see anyone else.

 
Long Ball Larry said:
Chances rising
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Vikes only need to pick up one more game on the Bears ... and as it happens, they're playing the Rams next week (though Minnesota is at Seattle).

No other game is in play at this point. Saints are up four on Carolina with four to play. Washington-Philly would  require a Dallas collapse (and a Washington non-collapse). What's unfortunate is that KC isn't playing LAC, since that division may go down to the wire.

 
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With the Bears clinching the NFC North, I think it's all but impossible for a Week 17 game to meet the standard required for a Sunday night flex. For example, the Eagles and Washington could theoretically be playing for the NFC East title in Week 17, but that would only be the case if Dallas loses its final two; there's no way the league would flex the game if Dallas could beat the Giants earlier in the day and render Washington-Philly meaningless (also: JOHNSON! FOLES! FOR ALL THE MARBLES ON SNF!)

Meanwhile, Indy and Tenn are playing in Week 17 and are both in contention for the No. 6 seed, but I'm fairly certain Baltimore can't be eliminated next week, which means Indy-Tenn can't be flexed without knowing the result of Ravens-Browns.

Looks like we'll be getting a pre-New Year's Eve night off a week from Sunday. Take advantage of the opportunity to reacquaint yourself with your family.

ETA: I was wrong. If Baltimore loses @ LAC next week and Indy and Tenn both win at home (over Giants/Washington), then the winner of their Week 17 game would be 10-6, while Ravens could only get to 9-7. Since all three of those Week 16 outcomes are what would be expected (FiveThirtyEight says both Indy and Tenn have a 74% chance of winning next week, while Baltimore has only a 34% chance), I'd say there are decent odds that Indy-Tenn will be the flex game.

 
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Any chance Chargers in Denver happening?  KC plays at Seattle so if they end up losing in Seattle and SD can win next weekend, the divisional game for the #1 seed could be up in the air (assuming KC beats oakland in the morning leaving SD to win and take the division).

 
kylechoffman said:
Any chance Chargers in Denver happening?  KC plays at Seattle so if they end up losing in Seattle and SD can win next weekend, the divisional game for the #1 seed could be up in the air (assuming KC beats oakland in the morning leaving SD to win and take the division).
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Problem is it will be meaningless for Denver, and the league wants a game where both teams have something to play for. Also, they have to decide the week before, so they wouldn't want it dependent on KC's result.

 
I agree that it's going to be Titans-Colts or it will be another year of non-flexing. For it to be Titans-Colts, they both need to win this week and the Ravens needs to lose. All those outcomes will be favored. At that point, Titans-Colts becomes a de facto playoff game, which is what the NFL wants in these Week 17 flex match-ups. 

 
zftcg said:
With the Bears clinching the NFC North, I think it's all but impossible for a Week 17 game to meet the standard required for a Sunday night flex. For example, the Eagles and Washington could theoretically be playing for the NFC East title in Week 17, but that would only be the case if Dallas loses its final two; there's no way the league would flex the game if Dallas could beat the Giants earlier in the day and render Washington-Philly meaningless (also: JOHNSON! FOLES! FOR ALL THE MARBLES ON SNF!)

Meanwhile, Indy and Tenn are playing in Week 17 and are both in contention for the No. 6 seed, but I'm fairly certain Baltimore can't be eliminated next week, which means Indy-Tenn can't be flexed without knowing the result of Ravens-Browns.

Looks like we'll be getting a pre-New Year's Eve night off a week from Sunday. Take advantage of the opportunity to reacquaint yourself with your family.

ETA: I was wrong. If Baltimore loses @ LAC next week and Indy and Tenn both win at home (over Giants/Washington), then the winner of their Week 17 game would be 10-6, while Ravens could only get to 9-7. Since all three of those Week 16 outcomes are what would be expected (FiveThirtyEight says both Indy and Tenn have a 74% chance of winning next week, while Baltimore has only a 34% chance), I'd say there are decent odds that Indy-Tenn will be the flex game.
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asking a lot, but if CAR loses tonight and Minnesota loses next week AND PHI And WAS win next week, PHI-WAS  could be for the last playoff spot. 

 
Long Ball Larry said:
asking a lot, but if CAR loses tonight and Minnesota loses next week AND PHI And WAS win next week, PHI-WAS  could be for the last playoff spot. 
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You're right, and those outcomes don't seem so outlandish. Philly over Houston would be the biggest upset, followed by Washington over Tenn.

Carolina only matters because they beat the Eagles and hold a tiebreaker. So they only have to lose one of their next two games for this scenario to come into play.

 
Long Ball Larry said:
asking a lot, but if CAR loses tonight and Minnesota loses next week AND PHI And WAS win next week, PHI-WAS  could be for the last playoff spot. 
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Just realized that because Washington and Tenn play each other this week, the flex game could be either Indy-Tenn or Phi-Wash (or neither), but there's no way both could be eligible. We'll know by Saturday afternoon which of the two scenarios is still in play.

 
Ted Lange as your Bartender said:
So with the Ravens winning and the Redskins losing, I'm pretty sure there's no remaining "play-in" game scenario left.  Another year of no SNF week 17 flex?
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Colts/Titans will be for 2nd wild card spot if the Colts win tomorrow and the Steelers lose. That will be the obvious flexed game if that is the scenario following tomorrow's games. 

 
Ghost Rider said:
Colts/Titans will be for 2nd wild card spot if the Colts win tomorrow and the Steelers lose. That will be the obvious flexed game if that is the scenario following tomorrow's games. 
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True, but you're overlooking the possibility that NBC could invoke the "No games involving Blaine Gabbert" clause of its contract to prevent it from being flexed.

 
I think next week’s Bears-Vikings game could be totally meaningless if the Vikes win and Eagles lose today (assuming the Rams and Saints clinch the top 2 spots). They would go into Week 17, guaranteed to play each other the next week in the First Round, right? What a garbage game that would be (the meaningless Week 17 game, I mean)

Or, if the Eagles win today, the Bears could either try to eliminate the Vikings in Week 17 (which would get them a first round game vs Philly) or tank to set up the rematch vs the Vikings. If I’m the Bears in that scenario, I rest Week 17 and avoid a game vs the Super Bowl champs 

 
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The_Man said:
I think next week’s Bears-Vikings game could be totally meaningless if the Vikes win and Eagles lose today (assuming the Rams and Saints clinch the top 2 spots). They would go into Week 17, guaranteed to play each other the next week in the First Round, right? What a garbage game that would be (the meaningless Week 17 game, I mean)

Or, if the Eagles win today, the Bears could either try to eliminate the Vikings in Week 17 (which would get them a first round game vs Philly) or tank to set up the rematch vs the Vikings. If I’m the Bears in that scenario, I rest Week 17 and avoid a game vs the Super Bowl champs 
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It’s possible.  The Bears could still get the 2 seed and a bye with a Rams loss so they may want to keep the heat on.

 
Ted Lange as your Bartender said:
Well they’d be eliminated from a WC spot.  They could still take the division with a win and a ravens loss in week 17
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How about this? Steelers lose, Colts win, they play Tenn next Sunday night. Earlier in the day, Steelers win, Ravens win to take the AFCN, and then Colts-Titans tie on SNF. Tenn definitely loses the tiebreaker based on conference record, but Pitt and Indy would have the same record, and beyond that I have no idea who wins.

Personally, I would love to see SNF ticking down to the end of OT and Steelers hanging out at Tomlin's house cheering for a tie.

 
I think Ravens-Browns is most likely if Pittsburgh loses tonight.

If Pittsburgh wins then I think it's probably an ugly ugly Bengals-Steelers match-up simply because it is the most likely win and your in lose and your out scenario.

Though I guess if the Steelers win then it could be Houston/Jacksonville  since Houston would be playing for something and possibly elimination as well.

-QG

 
QuizGuy66 said:
I think Ravens-Browns is most likely if Pittsburgh loses tonight.

If Pittsburgh wins then I think it's probably an ugly ugly Bengals-Steelers match-up simply because it is the most likely win and your in lose and your out scenario.

Though I guess if the Steelers win then it could be Houston/Jacksonville  since Houston would be playing for something and possibly elimination as well.

-QG
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They won't flex a game if it's meaningless to one team. They just won't have SNF.

If Steelers lose, it will be Tenn-Indy playing win or go home for the 6 seed (or possibly the division if Houston loses). Otherwise nothing.

 
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Won’t flex Baltimore because if Pittsburgh loses earlier in the day, it’s meaningless. Gonna be Colts-Titans

 
Yeah Indy/Tennessee it is.

They've done the non-flex before?

Anyway I am sure that Cincy/Pitt and Baltimore/Cleveland will be at the same time now - presumably 1pm.  If Seattle hasn't clinched they'll probably put them and the team(s) that can knock them out all at 4

-QG

 
QuizGuy66 said:
Yeah Indy/Tennessee it is.

They've done the non-flex before?

Anyway I am sure that Cincy/Pitt and Baltimore/Cleveland will be at the same time now - presumably 1pm.  If Seattle hasn't clinched they'll probably put them and the team(s) that can knock them out all at 4

-QG
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Weren’t all the games with playoff implications at 4 last year?

 
zftcg said:
Wow. I didn't realize that was even an option. Makes sense, though. 

I also wonder whether the game being on New Year's Eve played a role. In a year where ratings have been down, a meaningless SNF game while everyone is out partying could generate even worse press.

Here's the story. All games with playoff implications have been moved to 4:00: http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000898321/article/nfl-finalizes-week-17-schedule-no-sunday-night-football-game
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Well yes they were

 
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