Predicting the divisional winners (1 Viewer)

[David Yudkin]

Since the NFL went to 8 divisions, only 13 teams have repeated as division winners (out of 32 eligible teams). That works out to only 40% of the time.

This year, I see many people predicting 6, 7, even all 8 teams potentially repeating. In the four years with 8 divisions, repeat winners have accounted for 2, 4, 3, and 4 division titles in that time (listing the total in each year).

Yet this year I see almost unanimously NE, IND, SD, CHI, and NO as locks and many others still picking BAL, and PHI. I also see a lot of folks still picking SEA.

As I've outlined in several other threads, there are normally THREE teams that make the playoffs that had losing records the season before. (With so many teams ending up at 8-8 that one may be hard to repeat this year.)

Is this season that much different where so many people are looking for a repeat of last year?

 

[Bri]

Since the NFL went to 8 divisions, only 13 teams have repeated as division winners (out of 32 eligible teams). That works out to only 40% of the time.This year, I see many people predicting 6, 7, even all 8 teams potentially repeating. In the four years with 8 divisions, repeat winners have accounted for 2, 4, 3, and 4 division titles in that time (listing the total in each year).Yet this year I see almost unanimously NE, IND, SD, CHI, and NO as locks and many others still picking BAL, and PHI. I also see a lot of folks still picking SEA.As I've outlined in several other threads, there are normally THREE teams that make the playoffs that had losing records the season before. (With so many teams ending up at 8-8 that one may be hard to repeat this year.)Is this season that much different where so many people are looking for a repeat of last year?

Good points made. Not sure I agree with NO, but the other 4 locks.I guess no one wants to predict an unfortunate injury to Peyton, Tom, Urlacher, or Tomlinson.That's always an unfortunate possibility.Supe winners often run into all sorts of almost unbelievable bad luck the following year, so I guess the guy that's never hurt getting hurt would fit that bill.As far as the whole league-I've seen the stats leading to display parity as much as everyone else but I tend to think there's some NBA-itis in the NFL. Not that they don't try but the way teams suddenly play better after the midway point. I've often felt like the Pats were guilty of this in previous years. Never been able to put my finger on what it is, BB prepares players better? better schemes? but it did seem to happen.I do think talent wise there's some real clear gaps and the parity stuff just doesn't show that. I think that's why the locks are as such to people picking division winners.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Since the NFL went to 8 divisions, only 13 teams have repeated as division winners (out of 32 eligible teams). That works out to only 40% of the time.This year, I see many people predicting 6, 7, even all 8 teams potentially repeating. In the four years with 8 divisions, repeat winners have accounted for 2, 4, 3, and 4 division titles in that time (listing the total in each year).Yet this year I see almost unanimously NE, IND, SD, CHI, and NO as locks and many others still picking BAL, and PHI. I also see a lot of folks still picking SEA.As I've outlined in several other threads, there are normally THREE teams that make the playoffs that had losing records the season before. (With so many teams ending up at 8-8 that one may be hard to repeat this year.)Is this season that much different where so many people are looking for a repeat of last year?

As we all know you know, asking someone to pick their division winners is a different question than asking someone how many of the eight division winners will repeat. I sure wish I could make my division picks like this:Awesome team from last year that stays awesomeAwesome team from last year that drops but still wins the divisionTeam with comeback player of the year + coach of the yearTeam that comes out of nowhere to be hugeTeam with league MVP plus a top 5 defenseTeam that was good last year and awesome this yearTeam that made a huge leap forward this yearTeam that was excellent two years ago, stunk last year, and is excellent againI'd probably hit on most of those 8 division winners

 

[smcindoe]

Is this season that much different where so many people are looking for a repeat of last year?

Not different at all. Every year, people's "predictions" are basically last year's standings with each team moved up or down by one win, maybe two if they had many offseason changes. I've seen experts predicting the Saints would win the Super Bowl -- these are the same guys who had them finishing last a year ago. What changed? Not much, except the prevoius year's standings they're basically copying.This isn't even just a football phenomenom. The Hockey News annual yearbook for this season is predicting the same champion, same finals matchup, and 14 of the 16 same playoff teams as last year. Way to go out on a limb.

Just the usual case of folks chasing their tails...