Predraft thoughts - strategies - how it turned out (1 Viewer)

[JayMan]

Obviously, the season is young... really young... but there were a gazillion threads on draft strategy just prior to the start of the season - 2 comes to mind:

1. Don't waste a high pick on a QB;

2. Drop Portis to the second or even third! round because of his shoulder and Duckett's trade.

First off --- "Let the others draft Peyton / Carson and settle for a few QBs and play the matchups"

This is a common draft strategy to grab 3 or even 4 RBs with your first 5 picks - add a good WR or a great TE to that mix... and then look at the David Carr / Chris Simms / Mark Brunell trio (for example) to try and exploit easy matchups... It obvisouly add depth to your team - but it might be cumbersome to figure out who to start on a given week-end, only to bang your head on the wall when you see that Grossman is tossing a few TDs here and there...

Speaking of Grossman, if your league isn't too sold on QBs - he probably was on the WW at the beginning of the year... you had the fortune of grabbing him - and now you feel all hot and ready to go to war with him... against the owner of... ooops, Donovan MacNabb...

It seems that it might not be a bad idea after all to lock up Eli Manning with your 5th pick - rather than grabbing Reuben Droughns to keep your bench warm... or even look at Carson Palmer / Matt Hasselbeck earlier... why not Peyton Manning in the 2nd round?...

Obvisouly, it all depends on your scoring system / roster requirements... but I'm certain the owners of Carson Palmer have a better feeeling about their team on sunday morning than those having to rely on Jake Delhomme...

Of course, it is easy to look at it afterwards - it always depends on who you picked on draft day... Tom Brady was certainly in that "elite" gang and has not panned out (as expected) since... while Brett Favre / Kurt Warner could be had cheaper and have played "FF wise" to the likeing of their owners...

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Other thought --- "Don't look at Clinton Portis prior to the 20th pick"

He's got a bum shoulder - the Redskins traded for TJ Duckett who simply has to put on his helmet when his team is inside the 5 for the opponents to say "let's not run the play - we'll give you 6 points" - there must be more to it than a simple shoulder subluxation - we need to downgrade Portis in the 20s...

All valid thoughts prior to the draft... but alot of overreaction related to it... It was a toss-up between Clinton Portis and Tiki Barber before the shoulder incident... he hurts himself and then we see guys trading him for Kevan Barlow or else...

Let's take a deep breath here... there is a case for defending Barber, Rudi Johnson or even Brian Westbrook drafted ahead of Portis... put those who passed on him for Ronnie Brown / Steven Jackson / Cadillac Williams... or even Chester Taylor or Julius Jones! must not feel to good about themselves...

Portis is a yardage-machine (ala LT, ala Barber)...and he will also get his share of GL TDs - not more than he averaged in the past (and I don't say that he's a tremendous GL back) - but not going from 10TDs a year to 2 - even with TJ around...

When you have the chance to grab an uberstud in the second round! - if he's to miss one or two weeks, you have to take him... the NFL is a long season... Everyone is an injury risk - especially a RB - especially all RBs...

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Let's look at the big picture before jumping the gun - credibility is something that someone can lose rather quickly...

 

[tangfoot]

Week 3 scoring of the 11 started QBs in my league.

QBs are a crapshoot and should not be picked early. I wanted Eli this year, and he went in the early 4th in all of my leagues, far earlier than I was comfortable taking him.

33.08 - M. Hasselbeck

31.06 - B. Favre

28.22 - C. Palmer

23.94 - D. McNabb

23.00 - E. Manning

20.76 - P. Manning

18.62 - D. Carr

16.56 - S. McNair

13.22 - D. Culpepper

11.24 - K. Warner

7.76 - B. Johnson

I own Culpepper and played against Peyton. I lost that matchup, but not badly. And the guy who started Favre is sitting prettiest of all. Let someone else overpay for the QB.

 

[jon_mx]

Week 3 scoring of the 11 started QBs in my league.QBs are a crapshoot and should not be picked early. I wanted Eli this year, and he went in the early 4th in all of my leagues, far earlier than I was comfortable taking him. ....I own Culpepper and played against Peyton. I lost that matchup, but not badly. And the guy who started Favre is sitting prettiest of all. Let someone else overpay for the QB.

Not badly? You lost 10 points at QB. Certainly there are surprises at QB that you can pickup late, but you could have gotton Frank Gore in the 6th round this year too. You can try to crapshoot every week and pick up a good matchup, but I will take the consistancy of a Peyton Manning any week. Over a season, Manning is going to significantly outscore a make shift of mediocre QBs by more than 100 points. Manning, McNabb, or Palmer are not a crapshoot.

 

[Keys Myaths]

There are just as many high-scoring QBs taken in the later rounds as in the early rounds.

Remember, before this week, Hasselbeck was crap. Brady has been crap all year. They were the OTHER two of the top four QBs taken.

If you're saying you'd ONLY take Carson and Peyton, that's one thing...but drafting a QB early means taking a chance on one of the top 5 guys. Two of them have played like crap for most of the year so far.

QBs are just as risky as RBs, and they're in MUCH greater supply.

 

[tangfoot]

Week 3 scoring of the 11 started QBs in my league.QBs are a crapshoot and should not be picked early. I wanted Eli this year, and he went in the early 4th in all of my leagues, far earlier than I was comfortable taking him. ....I own Culpepper and played against Peyton. I lost that matchup, but not badly. And the guy who started Favre is sitting prettiest of all. Let someone else overpay for the QB.

Not badly? You lost 10 points at QB. Certainly there are surprises at QB that you can pickup late, but you could have gotton Frank Gore in the 6th round this year too. You can try to crapshoot every week and pick up a good matchup, but I will take the consistancy of a Peyton Manning any week. Over a season, Manning is going to significantly outscore a make shift of mediocre QBs by more than 100 points. Manning, McNabb, or Palmer are not a crapshoot.

If you are strictly talking about Peyton here, that's one thing. But remember where he was drafted. Late first or early 2nd round. I'll gladly take my RB/RB or RB/WR picks ahead of him and lose the QB matchup by 7 points every week. If you are talking about any QB other than Peyton, I'll gladly take 2 starting in the 6th round and play matchups all year, while filling out my bench with lots of talent.

 

[jon_mx]

Week 3 scoring of the 11 started QBs in my league.QBs are a crapshoot and should not be picked early. I wanted Eli this year, and he went in the early 4th in all of my leagues, far earlier than I was comfortable taking him. ....I own Culpepper and played against Peyton. I lost that matchup, but not badly. And the guy who started Favre is sitting prettiest of all. Let someone else overpay for the QB.

Not badly? You lost 10 points at QB. Certainly there are surprises at QB that you can pickup late, but you could have gotton Frank Gore in the 6th round this year too. You can try to crapshoot every week and pick up a good matchup, but I will take the consistancy of a Peyton Manning any week. Over a season, Manning is going to significantly outscore a make shift of mediocre QBs by more than 100 points. Manning, McNabb, or Palmer are not a crapshoot.

If you are strictly talking about Peyton here, that's one thing. But remember where he was drafted. Late first or early 2nd round. I'll gladly take my RB/RB or RB/WR picks ahead of him and lose the QB matchup by 7 points every week. If you are talking about any QB other than Peyton, I'll gladly take 2 starting in the 6th round and play matchups all year, while filling out my bench with lots of talent.

Its all a matter of luck. I have had my best seasons going with Peyton/Moss at 12th and 13th and getting lucky at RB in later rounds. You have a better chance at finding a fill in at QB, but there are decent RB's to be had in later rounds, and sometimes you really find a gem. I would rather have Peyton on my roster than L. Jordan, R. Bush, C. Williams, or K. Jones for instance. Once the obvious elite runners are gone, you can take a gamble at RB or you can get guarenteed stud numbers at WR and RB. If Peyton throws for 38+ TDs, 4500 yards, he is well worth it.