Jene Bramel
Footballguy
1. I'd prefer not to make this an advice-for-my-team thread. Strategy and decision-making discussion is welcome, but please keep questions as general as possible.
2. Fire away.
2. Fire away.
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Preseason Q&A (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Jene Bramel
- Start date
OK, nice and general.
Seattle LB situation - Wright vs Wagner - Who starts where and when?
Ravens DL/LB with Suggs down anything their to mine as I'm not feeling it?
NOS Martez Wilson is getting some DE looks in OTAs your thoughts?
MLB Shepard in Buffalo what do you put the odds at that he plays 3 downs? Seems like they go big nickel to me.
Thanks as always!
Seattle LB situation - Wright vs Wagner - Who starts where and when?
Ravens DL/LB with Suggs down anything their to mine as I'm not feeling it?
NOS Martez Wilson is getting some DE looks in OTAs your thoughts?
MLB Shepard in Buffalo what do you put the odds at that he plays 3 downs? Seems like they go big nickel to me.
Thanks as always!
5-ish Finkle
Footballguy
B-but....everyone cares about my team.
Fullback Fro
yesno
What's going on with EJ Henderson. Is he officially done?
Raymell McKigney
Footballguy
Runs on from Tones 2nd question, do you see much value for Paul Kruger? I'm guessing no if he is taking on Jarret Johnson's old role but would like to hear your thoughts.
In super deep leagues, would love to hear of which rookies at all IDP positions you have on your watch lists.....to be honest it doesn't even have to be rookies
In super deep leagues, would love to hear of which rookies at all IDP positions you have on your watch lists.....to be honest it doesn't even have to be rookies
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Cato
Footballguy
Hey all, just joined a league where need to start 3 DT. (IDP only league.) Always learning but feel I might know the least about this position.
Any chance of having a top 30 DT ranking only? Love the context of the DT mixed into the DE, but where the league is DT required more depth would be helpful. (selfish and hopefully generally helpful request.)
Any DT sleepers to keep an eye on? Any chance Muhammad Wilkerson, Jared Odrick, Pernell McPhee, or others move to DT? Not sure if their talent/versatility supports it, and frankly the number of fronts defenses play have me guessing at what their bases truly are sometimes. (Jets being rumored to be moving to 4-3 for example, but not sure if the base is 46, etc.)
Hopefully that's general enough, and thank you,
Any chance of having a top 30 DT ranking only? Love the context of the DT mixed into the DE, but where the league is DT required more depth would be helpful. (selfish and hopefully generally helpful request.)
Any DT sleepers to keep an eye on? Any chance Muhammad Wilkerson, Jared Odrick, Pernell McPhee, or others move to DT? Not sure if their talent/versatility supports it, and frankly the number of fronts defenses play have me guessing at what their bases truly are sometimes. (Jets being rumored to be moving to 4-3 for example, but not sure if the base is 46, etc.)
Hopefully that's general enough, and thank you,
Raymell McKigney
Footballguy
One DT I like this year who seems to be on every WW is Randy Starks in Miami. Fairly sure he will be a 3 down player and will be shifting around the line, not purely at tackle.
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treat88
Footballguy
1. Matt Shaughnessy - is he a 34 DE now and does that leave any likelihood for meaningful production?
2. Erin Henderson - 3 down backer? Increased upside if Brinkley's hip continues to ail him?
3. Henry Melton - is he the next DT to take that step up to relevancy and become rosterable?
2. Erin Henderson - 3 down backer? Increased upside if Brinkley's hip continues to ail him?
3. Henry Melton - is he the next DT to take that step up to relevancy and become rosterable?
Raymell McKigney
Footballguy
1) It's a multiple front, not a pure 34. He is going to be a stud, if you can get him cheaply, make a move now!2) He will be a 3 down backer, IMO its Henderson and not Brinkley is the guy to own outside of Greenway. Henderson looks to me to be a low end LB2/high end LB3'treat88 said:
Jene Bramel
Footballguy
Seattle LB situation - Wright vs Wagner - Who starts where and when?All signs currently point to Wright at SLB and Wagner at MLB. Opinions from pre-draft talent evaluators were mixed on whether Wagner could handle that role, but I'm a believer. I don't think Barrett Ruud is a major threat after his missed time in minicamp and OTAs and it should be Wagner's job to lose in camp. I think there's a very good chance Wagner will play alongside Wright in subpackages, too.
Ravens DL/LB with Suggs down anything their to mine as I'm not feeling it?
Depends on whether the Ravens are willing to let Courtney Upshaw play 60+ snaps per week. That looks unlikely for now. I think Paul Kruger has some upside in big play leagues and I like Pernell McPhee as a Marques Douglas / Dwan Edwards / Cory Redding type rotational DL3. But there's no obvious every-week fantasy starter in this group.
NOS Martez Wilson is getting some DE looks in OTAs your thoughts?
I think Wilson has always been a scouting report athlete. Athleticism only takes you so far in the NFL. It would appear that the Saints don't think he can be an every-down OLB so they're looking for ways to get him on the field in subpackages. Given the lack of pass rushing options, it's worth giving Wilson a shot. It's not a good sign for his long-term fantasy value unfortunately.
MLB Shepard in Buffalo what do you put the odds at that he plays 3 downs? Seems like they go big nickel to me.
Without an injury, less than 20%. Dave Wannstedt has already said that they'll approach the subpackages as they did last year and that Nick Barnett is the only definite every-down linebacker. There's room for Sheppard to impress in camp, but there's been little to suggest the Bills are planning to make a change now.
Ravens DL/LB with Suggs down anything their to mine as I'm not feeling it?
Depends on whether the Ravens are willing to let Courtney Upshaw play 60+ snaps per week. That looks unlikely for now. I think Paul Kruger has some upside in big play leagues and I like Pernell McPhee as a Marques Douglas / Dwan Edwards / Cory Redding type rotational DL3. But there's no obvious every-week fantasy starter in this group.
NOS Martez Wilson is getting some DE looks in OTAs your thoughts?
I think Wilson has always been a scouting report athlete. Athleticism only takes you so far in the NFL. It would appear that the Saints don't think he can be an every-down OLB so they're looking for ways to get him on the field in subpackages. Given the lack of pass rushing options, it's worth giving Wilson a shot. It's not a good sign for his long-term fantasy value unfortunately.
MLB Shepard in Buffalo what do you put the odds at that he plays 3 downs? Seems like they go big nickel to me.
Without an injury, less than 20%. Dave Wannstedt has already said that they'll approach the subpackages as they did last year and that Nick Barnett is the only definite every-down linebacker. There's room for Sheppard to impress in camp, but there's been little to suggest the Bills are planning to make a change now.
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Jene Bramel
Footballguy
Jene Bramel
Footballguy
Not officially, but it's not a good sign that Lofa Tatupu and Barrett Ruud are getting looks earlier than Henderson has. Surprising, too, because I felt Henderson was very good between the tackles last year. Sure seems like a few teams could use an Andra Davis type veteran. Maybe it was a contract demand or yet-to-be-revealed offseason surgery that has his return on hold / market cooled.
Jene Bramel
Footballguy
In super deep leagues, would love to hear of which rookies at all IDP positions you have on your watch lists.....to be honest it doesn't even have to be rookies
It's really difficult to answer these questions without knowing league specifics.Shallower leagues might have guys like Derrick Morgan or Donald Butler still available. Somewhat deeper leagues might have Robert Quinn or Erin Henderson on the wire. Deep rosters are probably looking at Michael Bennett or Kavell Conner.I think the best plan is to cross-check my watch lists in the tier threads and the back end of my rankings on the website with your lists to look for guys I think have rosterable value in 2012.
Jene Bramel
Footballguy
I'll try to have a top 30 DT and CB rank list ready for camp. I don't generate those myself because there's no circumstance where I would draft the, say, 17th DT or CB from my list. I'll enter a draft or offseason with a list of 5-15 names I'm comfortable rostering. If I miss on those names, I'd rather wait and play matchups early in the season while examining trends to find the next Geno Atkins or Tim Jennings.High upside, risk-reward sleepers in the Atkins mold? Christian Ballard, maybe Arthur Jones. At CB? Aaron Williams, Jimmy Smith, Dre Kirkpatrick, maybe Aaron Berry.Wilkerson, Odrick and McPhee are all capable of playing DT, but all three are currently listed as DE at Rotoworld and aren't likely to be moved.If the Jets are serious about lining up in a 4-3 base predominantly, you may see Wilkerson moved. But I don't see it happening.
Jene Bramel
Footballguy
1. Matt Shaughnessy - is he a 34 DE now and does that leave any likelihood for meaningful production?I don't think the Raiders have the linebackers to play a 3-4 base often enough to worry over yet. Shaughnessy is much more likely to be an elephant edge rusher in the front than a 3-4 end. I still think there's value in Shaughnessy. His bottom line wasn't tremendous before his shoulder issues last year, but there were signs of life bubbling under the surface. And 2012 is a contact year for him, too.
2. Erin Henderson - 3 down backer? Increased upside if Brinkley's hip continues to ail him?
The one year contract is goofy but don't let it cloud the fantasy outlook too much. Henderson is an every-down linebacker on a team with a questionable MLB and safety group and one that may decide to play the run without Antoine Winfield, too. I've never been impressed with Brinkley as anything more than between-the-tackles run defender and he's never proven he can do that well in the NFL. I may miss the boat on him, but he's not a priority target for me, especially at his current hype.
3. Henry Melton - is he the next DT to take that step up to relevancy and become rosterable?
Melton is what he is. A situational 3-technique with lots of weekly fantasy variance. You might get 7-8 sacks from him if you guess the matchups correctly (or are willing to fade the 8-10 games a season he puts up very little) but it's highly unlikely that we'll see him top 35 solos in any season and turn himself into a consistent fantasy DT2 or more.
2. Erin Henderson - 3 down backer? Increased upside if Brinkley's hip continues to ail him?
The one year contract is goofy but don't let it cloud the fantasy outlook too much. Henderson is an every-down linebacker on a team with a questionable MLB and safety group and one that may decide to play the run without Antoine Winfield, too. I've never been impressed with Brinkley as anything more than between-the-tackles run defender and he's never proven he can do that well in the NFL. I may miss the boat on him, but he's not a priority target for me, especially at his current hype.
3. Henry Melton - is he the next DT to take that step up to relevancy and become rosterable?
Melton is what he is. A situational 3-technique with lots of weekly fantasy variance. You might get 7-8 sacks from him if you guess the matchups correctly (or are willing to fade the 8-10 games a season he puts up very little) but it's highly unlikely that we'll see him top 35 solos in any season and turn himself into a consistent fantasy DT2 or more.
J Giles Band
Footballguy
What difference in production (if any) do you expect from guys like Cameron Wake and Kamerion Wimbley moving from rush OLB to DE?
Jene Bramel
Footballguy
More concerned about Wimbley's tackle numbers than Wake but I think both are 40-8 or better players this year. Both are capable of performing well from a three point stance.
Jene Bramel
Footballguy
I like to think of a team's fantasy value in terms of a triangle. I'm willing to project three defenders to elite numbers if the talent and opportunity are there. The talent is there in SF but there could be a question of opportunity if the Niners offense improves enough to increase the number of extended drives or length of time they have a lead of more than a touchdown.There's precedent for multiple linebackers, including two ILBs, having elite fantasy value. Some situations, like the early Texans' 3-4 years, can support big numbers from two ILBs from even below average talent.Bowman is much more likely to regress multiple tiers than Willis, but I think Bowman can still threaten the 92-95 solo tackle plateau alongside Willis.
5-ish Finkle
Footballguy
Well, in that case....'Jene Bramel said:B-but....everyone cares about my team.Never thought I'd see 5-ish speechless.
Akeem Ayers: Expecting a large bump in production? 3-down player this year or big play only type? What's the Magic 8 Ball say?
Jene Bramel
Footballguy
Think that depends on how Zach Brown performs in camp. If he's impressive enough to win a starting job, he's probably going to challenge for nickel snaps.I think there's a chance that Ayers improves regardless, but it'll be hard for him to have more than marginal matchup value -- even in an every-down situation.Well, in that case....'Jene Bramel said:B-but....everyone cares about my team.
Akeem Ayers: Expecting a large bump in production? 3-down player this year or big play only type? What's the Magic 8 Ball say?
cr8f
Footballguy
Well Brown certainly has motivation. He heard people call him soft so we'll see how he responds. I like his speed if he can work off blocks and tackle.
Lofa getting looks? I haven't heard anything what am I missing?
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Shane Falco
Footballguy
signed in Atlanta
Raymell McKigney
Footballguy
I think this is a great question and will expand on it somewhat. What value do you see for slot corners these days in the NFL? I'm guessing it's probably more of a matchup thing though would like your insight Jene. Guys like this are going to be getting 40 to 60% of snaps in subpackage looks based on the matchup I'm thinking. How do you see this one Jene?'Ashem said:
Jene Bramel
Footballguy
'Ashem said:
Nickel corners can have lots of fantasy value. They have to have a very high point-to-snap ratio, but it's possible. Richard Marshall was a CB1 in his first two seasons despite seeing only nickel duty. But that's rare. I wouldn't put them at the bottom of the list, but you'll need a compelling reason (very high matchup value, skill set that's likely to support tackle numbers, etc) to draft/hold one. As RMc notes, the trend toward spread base offensive sets will increase the likelihood that a slot corner will hold consistent value.The angle you'll want to watch is the corner who plays outside against traditional sets and slides inside in nickel/dime sets. Those players -- if they can tackle -- are primed for very good numbers. It's not a common scenario (though it's becoming moreso lately) but it's supported the value of guys like Ronde Barber and others in past seasons.
5-ish Finkle
Footballguy
Speaking of Ronde....if that switch to Free Safety is permanent(and it appears it will be), does it pretty much squash any value he had remaining? Or would that all be predicated on whether he is/isn't going to be covering the slot in subs?
Jene Bramel
Footballguy
Slot coverage will prop his value up some, but I think Mark Barron will make it very difficult for Barber to push above 65 solos if he plays FS in the base defense.
Cato
Footballguy
Absolutely and thank you, I've actually held off responding, as I was hoping he would drop to me in a draft, and not sure who's trolling these boards.
Cato
Footballguy
Thanks Jene, for your thoughts, much appreciated. Have Ngata, Casey, Starks, Ballard in a 10 team, start 3 DT league. Knowing Wilkerson, not likely to be moved, helped crystalize strategy for me. Thanks.
Ashem
Footballguy
I took over a rebuild in an IDP dynasty league. About 200 IDP's are rostered. We start 2 DL, 2 LB, 2 DB, + 1 Flex.
Is it best to grab a bunch of young guys and high draft picks off of the WW and hope they develop, even if they're not MLB/WLB, 4-3 DE's, and SS since most of those are rostered, or is there so much turnover that it's better to wait until preseason or Week 1 and just grab a few guys who look like they might produce because of injury, position change, change of scheme, etc.?
Is it best to grab a bunch of young guys and high draft picks off of the WW and hope they develop, even if they're not MLB/WLB, 4-3 DE's, and SS since most of those are rostered, or is there so much turnover that it's better to wait until preseason or Week 1 and just grab a few guys who look like they might produce because of injury, position change, change of scheme, etc.?
GridironMenace
Footballguy
Trade all of your good veteran talent for young, high upside rookies or 2nd year players. I mean, all of your good players. Get value for them. Acquire picks. I realize that means essentially not competing at all this season, but 1 year of pain equals several years of success.'Ashem said:
Jene Bramel
Footballguy
Year-to-year turnover is the primary issue.I'd take a three-pronged approach.1) Deal any defensive player that isn't talented enough to stay in the elite tiers after a scheme change or increase in competiton.2) Target young players who are talented enough to stay in the elite tiers but haven't been given the opportunity yet. Don't get discouraged if there aren't any right now. They will present themselves often enough.3) Err on the side of rostering offensive upside over defensive flyers whenever possible.In the meantime, stream replacement level talent (or worse) off the free agent list when you need lineup fillers.'Ashem said:
Benchwarmers
Footballguy
If you have a list or a couple at each position you really like, it would be helpful. Thanks for all your work.
Paging Dr. Jene....
Can you give me your take on the following guys for this season (and perhaps a few down the road)?
Jerod Mayo. Can he approach 100 solo's again? Even if he plays 3 down WLB in their 4-3, I don't even know what kind of defensive scheme they are running this year. Was his big seasons due to his position and opportunity only?
D'Qwell Jackson. Is he really elite? Or is he more like Kirk Morrison was for several seasons, whose fantasy golden value crashed and burned faster than anyone that I can just about ever think of. Is he one of those guys who gets a million tackles because nobody else is there to get them? I don't want to overpay for him this summer if there is any chance that he could move outside. He got paid big time, and probably for the last time, so will he have the motivation to make those extra tackles when he doesn't have to?
Donald Butler. Is he going to be a 3 down player this year? I can see him blowing up like Mayo did a few seasons ago, same role if he stays in there all game. Could be a great steal later this summer? It's just been a realy long time (Donnie Edwards era) since a San Diego ILB was a true beast.
Jon Beason/Luke Keuchly. What do you expect to go down in Carolina camp this next month? Beason appears to be 100% healthy, but where those two guys will be lining up has all been just speculation. MLB and WLB, both 3 down players, but who plays where? Or are they both guaranteed 3 down? I can't believe he is still there, but Thomas Davis will get playing time somewhere. And Anderson has played a ton of 3 downs himself over the past 2 seasons.
Thanks for any thoughts you guys may have.
Can you give me your take on the following guys for this season (and perhaps a few down the road)?
Jerod Mayo. Can he approach 100 solo's again? Even if he plays 3 down WLB in their 4-3, I don't even know what kind of defensive scheme they are running this year. Was his big seasons due to his position and opportunity only?
D'Qwell Jackson. Is he really elite? Or is he more like Kirk Morrison was for several seasons, whose fantasy golden value crashed and burned faster than anyone that I can just about ever think of. Is he one of those guys who gets a million tackles because nobody else is there to get them? I don't want to overpay for him this summer if there is any chance that he could move outside. He got paid big time, and probably for the last time, so will he have the motivation to make those extra tackles when he doesn't have to?
Donald Butler. Is he going to be a 3 down player this year? I can see him blowing up like Mayo did a few seasons ago, same role if he stays in there all game. Could be a great steal later this summer? It's just been a realy long time (Donnie Edwards era) since a San Diego ILB was a true beast.
Jon Beason/Luke Keuchly. What do you expect to go down in Carolina camp this next month? Beason appears to be 100% healthy, but where those two guys will be lining up has all been just speculation. MLB and WLB, both 3 down players, but who plays where? Or are they both guaranteed 3 down? I can't believe he is still there, but Thomas Davis will get playing time somewhere. And Anderson has played a ton of 3 downs himself over the past 2 seasons.
Thanks for any thoughts you guys may have.
Jene Bramel
Footballguy
I'd be more worried about the development of Kelvin Sheppard cutting into Wilson's numbers, although the improved defensive line could decrease the number of snaps the defense sees overall. The move to Wannstedt's system shouldn't be a major issue either way.Byrd is a bigger concern. His numbers are going to be more sensitive to opportunity, and like Atogwe and other FS whose strong tackle numbers don't necessarily match their run support capability, there's going to be variance. The defensive line could keep his big play numbers well above average and make the tackle variance more palatable.
Jene Bramel
Footballguy
Jerod Mayo. Can he approach 100 solo's again? Even if he plays 3 down WLB in their 4-3, I don't even know what kind of defensive scheme they are running this year. Was his big seasons due to his position and opportunity only?
The Patriots will be multiple again this year, and I think the mix ultimately will be determined by how quickly they are able to decide where Jones and Hightower fit. His big seasons were as much talent as opportunity. 100 solos is possible but tough since he won't be playing inside the box. Even if Spikes continues to struggle with durability, Mayo may not be a long term option inside with Hightower on the roster now. I'd put Mayo's likely ceiling outside the top ten and in the solid LB2 range.
D'Qwell Jackson. Is he really elite? Or is he more like Kirk Morrison was for several seasons, whose fantasy golden value crashed and burned faster than anyone that I can just about ever think of. Is he one of those guys who gets a million tackles because nobody else is there to get them? I don't want to overpay for him this summer if there is any chance that he could move outside. He got paid big time, and probably for the last time, so will he have the motivation to make those extra tackles when he doesn't have to?
Jackson is a strong talent, but not elite. His numbers will be sensitive to surrounding cast, but the Browns are still relatively weak in the back seven. As long as Jackson stays healthy and inside, he's a threat for 95+ solos.
Donald Butler. Is he going to be a 3 down player this year? I can see him blowing up like Mayo did a few seasons ago, same role if he stays in there all game. Could be a great steal later this summer? It's just been a realy long time (Donnie Edwards era) since a San Diego ILB was a true beast.
I've had Butler in my top 20 since the winter -- well above consensus -- and it's a hedge. Now that we're through the final waves of free agency and the Chargers haven't added a veteran presence, he's going up still higher in my tiers. The only potential rub is an unexpected spike in the development on Jonas Mouton, but I think it's now a near lock that Butler is seen as the centerpiece of the ILB group.
Jon Beason/Luke Keuchly. What do you expect to go down in Carolina camp this next month? Beason appears to be 100% healthy, but where those two guys will be lining up has all been just speculation. MLB and WLB, both 3 down players, but who plays where? Or are they both guaranteed 3 down? I can't believe he is still there, but Thomas Davis will get playing time somewhere. And Anderson has played a ton of 3 downs himself over the past 2 seasons.
We should get our first indication of their expected alignment this afternoon. If it's Kuechly inside immediately, it'll take poor play to see a change. If it's Beason inside, anything is possible over the coming weeks-months. They'll both play every-down, I'd think. Anderson is not a stud talent, Davis is an extreme durability risk. How much either plays depends on how healthy Davis looks, what the preferred subpackages are and whether we see more 3-4 than last year.
The Patriots will be multiple again this year, and I think the mix ultimately will be determined by how quickly they are able to decide where Jones and Hightower fit. His big seasons were as much talent as opportunity. 100 solos is possible but tough since he won't be playing inside the box. Even if Spikes continues to struggle with durability, Mayo may not be a long term option inside with Hightower on the roster now. I'd put Mayo's likely ceiling outside the top ten and in the solid LB2 range.
D'Qwell Jackson. Is he really elite? Or is he more like Kirk Morrison was for several seasons, whose fantasy golden value crashed and burned faster than anyone that I can just about ever think of. Is he one of those guys who gets a million tackles because nobody else is there to get them? I don't want to overpay for him this summer if there is any chance that he could move outside. He got paid big time, and probably for the last time, so will he have the motivation to make those extra tackles when he doesn't have to?
Jackson is a strong talent, but not elite. His numbers will be sensitive to surrounding cast, but the Browns are still relatively weak in the back seven. As long as Jackson stays healthy and inside, he's a threat for 95+ solos.
Donald Butler. Is he going to be a 3 down player this year? I can see him blowing up like Mayo did a few seasons ago, same role if he stays in there all game. Could be a great steal later this summer? It's just been a realy long time (Donnie Edwards era) since a San Diego ILB was a true beast.
I've had Butler in my top 20 since the winter -- well above consensus -- and it's a hedge. Now that we're through the final waves of free agency and the Chargers haven't added a veteran presence, he's going up still higher in my tiers. The only potential rub is an unexpected spike in the development on Jonas Mouton, but I think it's now a near lock that Butler is seen as the centerpiece of the ILB group.
Jon Beason/Luke Keuchly. What do you expect to go down in Carolina camp this next month? Beason appears to be 100% healthy, but where those two guys will be lining up has all been just speculation. MLB and WLB, both 3 down players, but who plays where? Or are they both guaranteed 3 down? I can't believe he is still there, but Thomas Davis will get playing time somewhere. And Anderson has played a ton of 3 downs himself over the past 2 seasons.
We should get our first indication of their expected alignment this afternoon. If it's Kuechly inside immediately, it'll take poor play to see a change. If it's Beason inside, anything is possible over the coming weeks-months. They'll both play every-down, I'd think. Anderson is not a stud talent, Davis is an extreme durability risk. How much either plays depends on how healthy Davis looks, what the preferred subpackages are and whether we see more 3-4 than last year.
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We Tigers
Footballguy
Jene, the Lions' DL production has shifted all over the line the past two seasons. You have both Avril and Suh ranked pretty well this year. Any thoughts on if Avril's holdout will be an issue, and what has increased your confidence in Suh after he became more of a pressure-but-low-stats DT following his super rookie year?
On The Rocks
Footballguy
Jene - I'm in a very competivie 10 player league with no chumps. The league is going into it's 26th year.
I just wanted to say thanks to you and the other IDP Experts on FBG - in the years I have been fortunate to win the league or finish in the top three ($$$) - it is soley due to the IDP advantage I gain by reading the stuff of guys like you and Norton. This thread is great! Thanks fo the help!
I just wanted to say thanks to you and the other IDP Experts on FBG - in the years I have been fortunate to win the league or finish in the top three ($$$) - it is soley due to the IDP advantage I gain by reading the stuff of guys like you and Norton. This thread is great! Thanks fo the help!
Jene Bramel
Footballguy
Not too worried about Avril's holdout. He doesn't have a new scheme to learn and his skill set isn't dependent on camp reps. The primary issue there will be whether he can survive his first week in pads without a conditioning injury.I'm reworking my tiers this week for the feature series Bloom and I do each August and I'm dropping Suh a bit. I think the his stat line is probably somewhere between his 2010 and 2011 seasons, with his ultimate upside dependent on the success of his adjustments (and the team's game plan, too) to how offensive lines have been approaching him in the run game. There's still 40/8 potential with upside in him. His perceived value / ADP is the all-important factor on whether or not he should end up on your team.
southeastjerome
Footballguy
Jene, you helped me the past two years to identify a breakout player who would produce a high sack total. Two years ago you gave me Cam Wake, last year it was Von Miller. Who are a couple breakout sack guys?
Jene Bramel
Footballguy
I'll have a feature on undervalued IDPs next week'southeastjerome said:
crossesfingers, but I like Robert Quinn, Adrian Clayborn, Bruce Irvin at DL and Justin Houston at LB as new 10+ sack threats you can find outside the consensus top 20 at their positions.
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
Jackson is more than a Kirk Morrison-type of talent. He didn't get tackles becaue no-one else was there to make them. Jackson wasn't in the correct scheme for years as both Romeo Crennel and Eric Mangini ran a 3-4 base D. Things changed dramatically for him last year when Shurmur brought in **** Juroun and his 4-3 defensive scheme and the Browns used their top pick on DT Phil Taylor who lead all rookie defensie linemen in tackles and Taylor was paired with vastly underrated DT Ahtyba Rubin to form a solid wall in front of D'Qwell so he was 'covered' when he came up to plug holes. Many times in the Crennel/Mangini years Jackson was 'uncovered' and his role was to come-up and take on OG's who outweighed him by fifty to sventy five pounds.
He is not a fit for a 3-4 base where he was expected to fill gaps 'uncovered' and shed blocks. He's a bit smaller and faster and last year he showed how explosive he can be.
He is not going to moved outside. That rumor started when it was announced that SLB Scott Fujita was facing a suspension and one of the writers spit-balled the theory that rookie ILB James Michael Johnson would take over in the middle and that D'Qwell would move to the weakside with WLB Chris Gocong moving over to the strong side to cover for Fujita.
Naw, not likely and no evidence of that happening in camp.
More than likely Gocong moves to the strong side as he did last year when Fujita got injured and veteran backup Kaluka Mauvau fills in on the weak side. Jackson hasn't been shuffled in camp and their hasn't been any chatter hat he would be moved.
I will say that camp reports have been glowing about the rookie, James Michael Johnson. He looks really good in his drops and very fluid with range. If anything he looks like he is a natural in pass protection so I think the coaches will find a spot for him in cover packages.
Per Jene's assessment of the back seven, um people in general look backwards when asked how they perceive a group of players.
Last year was the first in Juroun's defense and they finished in the top ten in the entire NFL. The weakness was in stopping the run with the focus point being RDE.
The Browns eschew free agency and prefer to build via the draft but they acted aggressively find two top run defenders at RDE, Frosty Rucker and Jauqua Parker, both rated near the top of all NFL defensive linemen in plugging the run.
The Browns then drafted two rookie DTs and both are getting lots or reps since both DT Phil Taylor, torn pec, and DT Ahytaba Rubin slight tear of pelvic muscle are out. Both DT John Hughes and DT/DE Billy Wynn have looked good.
The back seven looks stronger as well as SS T.J. Ward is back after landing on IR early last year. The team had three of their four wins before Ward went down and only won one more game all year with him out. He looks even more beastly this year. Last year a late round rookie FS Eric Hagg got a shot late in the year and played well. This year he has looked great and is now establishing himself as the new free safety starter. Last year the only major weakness in the secondary was with elder CB Sheldon Brown as he has lost his speed. Blazing fast second year corner Buster Skrine is challenging Brown's starting corner position opposite rock solid CB Joe Haden.
Gocong really suprised last year when he had to fill-in for Fujita on the strong side. D'Qwell looked fantastic and had his first injury free year after he had a massive DT wall in front of him and without the 'un-covered' gap filling responsibilities of the past.
Add in two rookie DTs, two vetern top run plugging RDEs, two rookie LBs (James Michael Johnson and Acho), the healthy return of SS T.J. Ward, the emmergence of FS Eric Hagg, the emmergence of CB Buster Skrine, and then add another rookie DB just as a topper into the mix and the back seven of the Browns defense has an excellent shot to improve in a big way.
We're talking about the ninth ranked defense in terms of yardage given up and the fifth rated defense in the entire NFL in terms of scoring so I would have to respectfully point out to DR Jene that this isn't the same defense as last year who had just switched over to the 4-3 and was starting two rookies on the line and who had question lingering over MLB D'Qwell Jackson's health.
I pointed out to people last year that D'Qwell was in for a monster season.
I see no reason to doubt he'll have another fantastic season.
He's more elite than Kirk Morrison but YMMV.
Jene Bramel
Footballguy
Good stuff, Bracie.
I didn't mean to imply that Jackson's talent was on par with Morrison's. While I don't think he is an elite MLB talent, he is a very good player.
My comment on the relatively weak back seven was in respect to competition for tackles rather than overall team defensive strength. I remain higher on Ward than most for fantasy purposes but I don't see any other clearly above league average talents capable of stealing tackles. Hagg and JMJ could provide more competition but I'll reserve judgment until I see it, since I have reservations on JMJ and have never seen Hagg play.
Since I've Jackson ranked as my LB1 overall and have him at the top of my elite tier, I think it is hard to argue that I've underrated him or am in doubt that he'll again be a strong fantasy option. It is worth noting, however, that an improving defense would not necessarily be a good thing for Jackson. Fewer snaps, fewer rushing attempts faced and a better surrounding cast would not work in his favor.
I didn't mean to imply that Jackson's talent was on par with Morrison's. While I don't think he is an elite MLB talent, he is a very good player.
My comment on the relatively weak back seven was in respect to competition for tackles rather than overall team defensive strength. I remain higher on Ward than most for fantasy purposes but I don't see any other clearly above league average talents capable of stealing tackles. Hagg and JMJ could provide more competition but I'll reserve judgment until I see it, since I have reservations on JMJ and have never seen Hagg play.
Since I've Jackson ranked as my LB1 overall and have him at the top of my elite tier, I think it is hard to argue that I've underrated him or am in doubt that he'll again be a strong fantasy option. It is worth noting, however, that an improving defense would not necessarily be a good thing for Jackson. Fewer snaps, fewer rushing attempts faced and a better surrounding cast would not work in his favor.
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
Ward made a big impact as a rookie in Mangini's/Rob Ryan's defense.Rob loves to utlize press coverage so he can move his strong safety up in the box and that is when Ward was a monster.I gave a head's up very early the year T.J. came into the league. Last year I cautioned people off of Ward since the scheme had changed and he would not be coming up in the box as much and would be used more in coverage.You have D'Qwell listed properly. He's the clean up man in Juroun's defense but I wouldn't use the term 'weak' to describe the back seven but in strict IDP terms their are three guys to target on the Browns defense.1. LB D'Qwell Jackson2. DT Ahtyba Rubin3. DE Jabaal SheardWildcard deep sleeperFS Eric Hagg
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
Good question.I see him as a deep sleeper/flyer type of guy who no-one is talking about and the time to uncover sleepers is when no-one is talking about them.
I consider him a deep sleeper since he is young and unheralded and he is getting a shot to start at free safety.
The schedule for the Browns this year looks like it is set perfectly for a free safety to take advantage of.
All AFCN teams havae talented QBs so that is six games against, Big Ben, Andy Dalton, and Joe Flacco. Then their NFC slate is against the NFCE which means games against, Romo, Vick, Eli, and RG III. The other schedule includes games against, Buffalo, Indy (Luck), SD (Rivers), OAK (Palmer), KC. and Denver (Peyton).
The schedule looks like any starting DB on the Browns will get lots of opportunities.
I do not know what Eric Hagg will do but I do consider him a deep sleeper due to opportunity and the fact that he's flying under the radar of many people since he hasn't been officially listed as a starter but all reports show he's working with the first team and all reports are positive.
He would be a bargain and he might suprise since he looks like a starting free safety on a team who is going to face tons of top QB competition this year.
