Abortion will no doubt be a topic of discussion and this will provide him an opportunity to score some points.
Most of your post makes a lot of sense - and I agree with virtually everything posted in terms of what each candidate needs to do. I do have to take issue with one thing you said - the above sentence. Based on recent gallup numbers (
here) - If 50% of Americans are pro-life, with only 41% identifying themselves as pro-choice, wouldn't that lose him points? Especially with independent voters, of whom 47% are pro-life as compared to 41% pro-choice. That's a huge swing from where both groups were in 2008. My point is, that in 2008 he could have (and probably did) score points against the Republicans by making his pro-choice stance clear - in 2012, when more independents and more of the general population claim to be pro-life, I am not so sure that will work nearly as well as it did 4 years ago.