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Price is Right opinion (1 Viewer)

bro1ncos

bro1ncos

Footballguy
InterBoard League Representative
Discussion my 2 roommates and I had this morning.

Situation is during the spinning of the big wheel to see who goes to the Showcase. First 2 spinners get 80 cents. 3rd spinner gets 80 too and has the option to spin again and get a 5-20 to win or stand on 80 and all 3 players get 1 more spin and high spin wins. If you get $1 you get $1000 bonus.

Question was do you take 1 more spin and try to better your 80? Basically you eliminate the other 2 players a chance to spin again. You still have a shot of spinning a 20 to get the $1000 bonus. If you go 25+ you are eliminated. 

 
Gotta stand on 80 and go to the three-way spin -off.

The odds of exceeding 20 on a second spin are 4 in 5 (80%) -- so a 20% chance you surpass the other two with 80. The odds of coming out on top after a three-way spin-off are 1 in 3 -- 33% trumps 20%. 

 
You have a 20% chance (4/20) to get 20 or less on an extra spin, and a 5% chance of getting the bonus.

If you go to a 3-way spin-off, I'd think your chance would be 33-1/3% of winning, so that seems to be the higher EV. 

 
So by the above math, you would want to spin again if tied at 65 or lower.  And possibly at 70, if you want to trade a couple points of probability for a shot at the $1K bonus.

 
heckmanm said:
You have a 20% chance (4/20) to get 20 or less on an extra spin, and a 5% chance of getting the bonus.

If you go to a 3-way spin-off, I'd think your chance would be 33-1/3% of winning, so that seems to be the higher EV. 
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I'm sure there will be someone, but this doesn't seem to be a case where anyone could see it the other way. It's simple math. The odds say spinning again is the wrong move..

 
Your chance of winning the second spinoff is better than 1/3 if you get to go last, because you get to see the other spins before you go . it's like the house edge in blackjack. 

If the first player gets anything under .60, they are going to spin again, so they go bust all the time. Think about if you spin a 40 cent spin to start, you're going to go again, and then 65, 70, 75, 80, 85, 90, 95 and 1.00 all bust you.  That's a huge advantage. 

Second spinners make mistakes too. If the first spinner doesn't bust they have an easy decision, but if they do they may make a sub optimal decision. 

Let's say the second spinner gets a .65. That seems like you have a 1/3 chance of winning, right? But actually you are better than that. If you get a 70, 75, 80, 85, 90, 95 or 1.00 on your first spin, you win outright. That's 7 out of 20 outcomes. And one of them is the dollar which gets you a b onus spin for extra money. 

 But if you spin any number 65 or less, you will always have exactly seven more numbers that win it for you. If you spin .05, then 65, 70, 75, 80, 85, 90 and 95 win it. If you spin 65, the. 05, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30 and 35 win it. 

So you win 35 percent of the time on your first spin, and 65 percent of the time you spin again, winning 35 percent of the time. 

You're a 57.75/42.25 percent favorite when your opponent stands on 65 cents.  

You should never give up that advantage for a 1 in 5 chance at a win right now. In fact if both your opponents tied at 50 cents and you spin a .50, you should still go to overtime. 

 
bostonfred said:
Your chance of winning the second spinoff is better than 1/3 if you get to go last, because you get to see the other spins before you go . it's like the house edge in blackjack. 

If the first player gets anything under .60, they are going to spin again, so they go bust all the time. Think about if you spin a 40 cent spin to start, you're going to go again, and then 65, 70, 75, 80, 85, 90, 95 and 1.00 all bust you.  That's a huge advantage. 

Second spinners make mistakes too. If the first spinner doesn't bust they have an easy decision, but if they do they may make a sub optimal decision. 

Let's say the second spinner gets a .65. That seems like you have a 1/3 chance of winning, right? But actually you are better than that. If you get a 70, 75, 80, 85, 90, 95 or 1.00 on your first spin, you win outright. That's 7 out of 20 outcomes. And one of them is the dollar which gets you a b onus spin for extra money. 

 But if you spin any number 65 or less, you will always have exactly seven more numbers that win it for you. If you spin .05, then 65, 70, 75, 80, 85, 90 and 95 win it. If you spin 65, the. 05, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30 and 35 win it. 

So you win 35 percent of the time on your first spin, and 65 percent of the time you spin again, winning 35 percent of the time. 

You're a 57.75/42.25 percent favorite when your opponent stands on 65 cents.  

You should never give up that advantage for a 1 in 5 chance at a win right now. In fact if both your opponents tied at 50 cents and you spin a .50, you should still go to overtime. 
Click to expand...
Spinoff is only one spin per person, period.

 
bostonfred said:
Your chance of winning the second spinoff is better than 1/3 if you get to go last, because you get to see the other spins before you go . it's like the house edge in blackjack. 

If the first player gets anything under .60, they are going to spin again, so they go bust all the time. Think about if you spin a 40 cent spin to start, you're going to go again, and then 65, 70, 75, 80, 85, 90, 95 and 1.00 all bust you.  That's a huge advantage. 

Second spinners make mistakes too. If the first spinner doesn't bust they have an easy decision, but if they do they may make a sub optimal decision. 

Let's say the second spinner gets a .65. That seems like you have a 1/3 chance of winning, right? But actually you are better than that. If you get a 70, 75, 80, 85, 90, 95 or 1.00 on your first spin, you win outright. That's 7 out of 20 outcomes. And one of them is the dollar which gets you a b onus spin for extra money. 

 But if you spin any number 65 or less, you will always have exactly seven more numbers that win it for you. If you spin .05, then 65, 70, 75, 80, 85, 90 and 95 win it. If you spin 65, the. 05, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30 and 35 win it. 

So you win 35 percent of the time on your first spin, and 65 percent of the time you spin again, winning 35 percent of the time. 

You're a 57.75/42.25 percent favorite when your opponent stands on 65 cents.  

You should never give up that advantage for a 1 in 5 chance at a win right now. In fact if both your opponents tied at 50 cents and you spin a .50, you should still go to overtime. 
Click to expand...
That's all great and all but you only get one spin in the spinoff, dummy!!

 
Opened thread up thinking it was just going to be asking for my opinion of the show, in general.... so will just say that I've been watching since I was a kid (watching while home sick was always a treat) and now that I'm working from home, I watch on Wednesdays with my Mom at the parents' place even though they are all re-runs at this point.  Thanks, COVID!

 
Within the past year my kids were on a Price is Right kick and we'd watch during lunch.  There was something similar where the first two contestants were tied with $0.50 and the third contestant's first spin was also $0.50.  I thought this was a pretty easy call to spin again and have a 50/50 shot to win it outright vs going to a three way spinoff with a 33/33/33 chance.

Spoiler alert:

The guy chose the spin off and lost.

 
bro1ncos said:
Discussion my 2 roommates and I had this morning.

Situation is during the spinning of the big wheel to see who goes to the Showcase. First 2 spinners get 80 cents. 3rd spinner gets 80 too and has the option to spin again and get a 5-20 to win or stand on 80 and all 3 players get 1 more spin and high spin wins. If you get $1 you get $1000 bonus.

Question was do you take 1 more spin and try to better your 80? Basically you eliminate the other 2 players a chance to spin again. You still have a shot of spinning a 20 to get the $1000 bonus. If you go 25+ you are eliminated. 
Click to expand...
Go for the spinoff.  As others stated, 20% chance of improving your 80 without busting, but 33.3% for the spinoff.  There's only a 5% chance of getting the 20 for the $1000 bonus, so it's not much of a factor.  I think if you spin 100 in the spinoff you get the $1000, but I'm not positive.  If so, then it's not a factor at all.

 
rick6668 said:
Go for the spinoff.  As others stated, 20% chance of improving your 80 without busting, but 33.3% for the spinoff.  There's only a 5% chance of getting the 20 for the $1000 bonus, so it's not much of a factor.  I think if you spin 100 in the spinoff you get the $1000, but I'm not positive.  If so, then it's not a factor at all.
Click to expand...
Not that it changes the spinoff being the absolute right choice, because the goal should be to make it to the showcase showdown, but getting the $1,000 bonus would also get you a bonus spin with a 3 in 20 chance of at least $10,000 (1 in 20 chance at another $25,000 if you spin $1, $10,000 if you spin .05 or .10). And, to your question, you do get the $1,000 bonus (and the bonus spin for $10/25k) if you spin a $1 in the one-spin spinoff, anyway.

 
My mother was a contestant on the show once. She wore my collegiate sweater there and my friends saw it.

They were joking around calling me white trash. I asked them what they were doing watching the show.

Win!

 
bostonfred said:
Your chance of winning the second spinoff is better than 1/3 if you get to go last, because you get to see the other spins before you go . it's like the house edge in blackjack. 
Click to expand...
You're right that after the first roll of the second spinoff, the odds for the last person change. But they don't necessarily rise above 33% -- the odds can also go markedly down depending on what number the first spinner gets. If that first spinner gets 0.95, say, the odds for the second and third spinners plummet.

However, in the instant before the second spinoff begins, each of the contestant's odds are 1 in 3. Events then quickly adjust those odds as they work through the spins.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Lehigh98 said:
Within the past year my kids were on a Price is Right kick and we'd watch during lunch.  There was something similar where the first two contestants were tied with $0.50 and the third contestant's first spin was also $0.50.  I thought this was a pretty easy call to spin again and have a 50/50 shot to win it outright vs going to a three way spinoff with a 33/33/33 chance.

Spoiler alert:

The guy chose the spin off and lost.
Click to expand...
Horrible decision.  Got what he deserved.

 
trader jake said:
Horrible decision.  Got what he deserved.
Click to expand...
I think he didn't realize that it was a one spin spinoff (which I also didn't realize at the time as I'm not that current on PiR rules) and he still had an advantage.

 
Price is right is a CG staple, it’s played on every mess deck in the fleet at lunch time. Also, you don’t interrupt the CO during the show case showdown unless there is a true emergency.

 
bro1ncos said:
This was pretty good. Crazy how that guy tracked and memorized all those prizes. It paid off.
Click to expand...
Not for him. Some other guy won both showcases.

I really liked this doc, the main guy seems pretty sweet, if weirdly obsessive about Price is Right. Drew Carey was such a tool when this went down, he thought they cheated, so didn't celebrate the perfect bid.

I really liked the doc on the guy who gamed Press Your Luck back in the day. He taped episodes on VHS, and watched them over and over, memorizing the patterns of the board, and went on and just cleaned up. Made more interesting by the rest of his life:

Larson used his cash winnings to pay taxes and invested most of the rest in bad real estate deals. As a result, he lost all of his winnings within two years of the show's taping. He later fled Ohio while under investigation for fraud. He was found to be living in Florida when he died of throat cancer at the age of 49.
Click to expand...
 
Wife and I went when Barker was still the emcee. This was right after Happy Gilmore came out so of course he took questions from the audience during breaks. Sat in the third row. Had fun, didn't get called. And we didn't get called because 1) we are ugly and 2) you have to be high energy ALL DAY!!! This was an all day event back then. This one guy who everyone in the line hated cause he was such an utter D bag, of course got called up. But still had fun.
 
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