Projected 2009 Win Loss Records... (1 Viewer)

[Ministry of Pain]

I'm sure this will keep changing, but for today let's see what we have.

AFC East

New England 14-2: Return of Tom Brady, a bunch of early to mid 2nd round picks to retool and reload the defense, gotta like their chances.

New York Jets 10-6: Not sure of the offense yet but Ryan is going to light a fire under that defense. This may change but let's give them an outside playoff chance.

Miami 8-8: I think a tougher schedule and the inability to get better is going to set them back. Resigning all the guys they did is great but a lot of them were just simply OK to begin with. They barely won the majority of the games they did...I just cannot see them increasing their win total form last year.

Buffalo 7-9: More fun to watch on offense.

AFC North

Pittsburgh 12-4: Sounds about right...2 SB in the last 4 seasons, nuff said.

Baltimore 9-7: Another team I think takes a step back.

Cleveland 5-11: Trading away KWII, don't think they know quite what they want to do yet...work in progress

Cincinnati 5-11: See above

AFC South

Jacksonville 11-5: OL is going to be healthy and rready to roll. Full dose of MJD, I like this team to be right there and maybe take the division.

Houston 10-6: I'm going out on a limb and saying that all these great picks in the draft they have made over the past several years finally pay off and Kubiak earns the respect he rightfully deserves.

Indy 8-8: Gonna be a long 1st year for Jim Caldwell...I don't see Tony Dungy aroudn the building any more...some doubters of Dungy will see what a difference he does make to an orginization...Indy was not doing well when Dungy got there, look for a slow steady slide down.

Tennessee 6-10: Haynesworth gone and they actually think Kerry COllins can get it done...gonna be a long year in Tennessee I am afraid.

AFC West

San Diego 10-6: Contingent on LT staying put and Merriman returning to full strength.

Kansas City 9-7: This is my dark horse in the AFC right now. Not quite ready to get thru the roof excited but I like everything Scott Pioli is doing and I am quickly gainin a lot more respect for the Chiefs.

Denver 4-12: Turmoil right now

Oakland 3-13: Could they get even worse?

NFC East

NY Giants 14-2: They are building the best DL we have seen since maybe the Dungylead Vikings teams in the late 80s/early 90s with Doleman, Millard, and the rest of the bunch they were wrecking havoc and racking sacks left and right. We probably have to go back further...I'll leave the Steel Curtain alone but this group is not only good but they now have a small rotation that will keep them all fresh late into the 2nd half.

Dallas 10-6: Here is my theory. They get rid of TO and they do what they are designed to do best right now...exploit the most talented overall backfield threesome in the legue. I want Felix Jones lined up i the slot form time to time, I want to see marion barber run it right at the defenses, I want to see (who's the other guy) that guy get the ball 5-10 touches a game to keep everyone fresh. Defense should be good too.

Philadelphia 6-10: Dawkins and Tra Thomasare gone...I have always been a fan of Reid and how the Eagles maintain competitve, and I'm sure they will beat this projection but I just don't see where they ahve the talent loaded up like others in their division.

Washington 4-12: Someday Daniel Snyder will learn that no matter how much you pay these guys to come play for you that they lack the necessary heart in order to actually win you games.

NFC North

Minnesota 12-4: QB...check, all systems GO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Chicago 6-10: Smoke and mirrors only works for so long

Green Bay 5-11: Just keeps getting worse

Detroit 1-15: Good Luck!!!

NFC South

New Orleans 10-6: Defense finally able to just hold teams in check once in awhile.

Carolina 10-6: Gritty

Atlanta 9-7: I haven't figured it out yet but I think they will have a hard time even hitting this.

Tampa Bay 4-12: Raise your hand if you think they look lost

NFC West

San Fran 10-6: Singletary is cooking up something

Arizona 10-6: Maybe they can repeat some of last year.

St Louis 6-10: They will get better.

Seattle 6-10: They have problems

Some of this has no real basis in reality quit yet but actually I do think there are some teams that are heading in the right direction.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

nice

I think you are way off on the AFC South.

Jax is closer to the bottom than the top IMO. Tennessee is 9-7 at worst. Indy takes that Division

 

[SuperJohn96]

I doubt we have TWO 10 win teams from the NFC West. They didn't even have ONE last year.

ETA: Hmm...didn't realize SFO had 7 Ws last year. So maybe you're not too far off there.

I'm also on board with the AFC West stinking and KCC rising, as well as Indy dropping.

 

[Dodge]

Oh god, Giants 14-2? I don't think I've ever seen anyone say that before.

 

[dgreen]

Minnesota 12-4: QB...check, all systems GO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Wait, are we talking about Sage here?

 

[Mr. Brownstone]

I'm sure this will keep changing, but for today let's see what we have.AFC SouthJacksonville 11-5: OL is going to be healthy and rready to roll. Full dose of MJD, I like this team to be right there and maybe take the division.

No way. I'd be shocked if they don't finish last in their division.

 

[puckalicious]

GB will take NFC North this year, or at least be within a game of MIN for the lead. Probably about 9-10 wins for whoever the division winner is. Bears? Who is their QB again? I seriously don't know. I'd give em 8 wins tops. And the Lions will be at the bottom again so it really doesn't matter how many wins we put here. I'll say 4.

IND at 8-8?

That takes balls. I like it.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

A team with Kellen Clemens or Brett Ratliff at QB will not win 10 games.

 

[bigreese82]

Haynesworth will make a difference but the Titans have always used a DL rotation. Haynesworth was not an every down player. The Titans passing game should be better than last year with the additions of Washington and Holt . The OL is intact...Secondary has basically 3 pro bowlers...veteran LBs . I see then losing 5 games tops

 

[nittanylion]

IMO, End-of-Season Standings predicted today have to be projected with 'today' in mind.

As of today:

NFC East: pretty much spot-on, I'm sorry to say from the POV of a Redskins fan - 'skins just aren't getting better fast enough to catch up to the rest of the Division this year.

NFC North: I'd flip-flop Green Bay and Chicago, slot the Packers at about .500 and probably give the Lions a few more 'W's.

NFC South: Carolina, Atlanta and New Orleans are all pretty evenly matched, IMO. All 3 ought to win a minimum of 10 games, and all 3 ought to make the playoffs, likely at the expense of an NFC East team. Tampa Bay needs a few Seasons to gget back on track.

NFC West: Love ya, MOP, but it's tough to project a Team that doesn't have an legitimate NFL-caliber QB to log more than 7 W's (just under .500) - and that's if everything else works out perfectly. Until the 49'ers have one, there's no way they see 8 W's, much less 10. I think the rest of it is reasonable, although if the Rams continue to have the OffSeason they are having, they could log a few more W's.

AFC East: Pats strong as ever, but Miami is still on the upswing. I'd swap them with the Jets, and log the Jets at 7-9 for the same reason I downgraded the 49'ers - there's not a legitimate NFL-caliber QB on that roster right now.

AFC North: Looks about right to me.

AFC South: Jacksonville has plenty of work to do this Season. Winning the Division is WAAAAY down the bottom of the list. Indy's the class of the Division right now - maybe no Dungy, but Peyton hasn't gone anywhere, and he's the nuts, bolts, keys and engine. I acknowledge Houston is on the rise, but Tennessee and Jeff Fisher aren't regressing, even with Haynesworth out of the picture. Collins can get it done, and 3 Playoff Teams ought to come from here.

AFC West: Looks about right, even if LT doesn't come back. KC is close, but like the Jets and Ravens, should get bumped from the Playoff Field by Tennessee/Houston.

2009 Projected Playoffs:

NYG, Minn, Car, Ariz / two of Dal/No/Atl

NEP, Pitt, Ind, SDC / two of Mia/Tenn/Hou

That's as far as I'm going for now.

 

[SuperJohn96]

2009 Projected Playoffs:NYG, Minn, Car, Ariz / two of Dal/No/AtlNEP, Pitt, Ind, SDC / two of Mia/Tenn/HouThat's as far as I'm going for now.

WAY TO GO OUT ON A LIMB......and include 10 of the 12 playoff teams from 2009, along with the 2009 AFC and NFC pre-season favourites (NEP/DAL) bub.

 

[Sinrman]

As of right now (3/10/09):

AFC East

New England 12-4

New York Jets 8-8

Buffalo 8-8

Miami 6-10

AFC North

Pittsburgh 12-4

Baltimore 8-8

Cleveland 5-11

Cincinnati 5-11

AFC South

Indy 11-5

Tenn 9-7

Houston 8-8

Jax 6-10

AFC West

San Diego 9-7

Kansas City 8-8

Denver 7-9

Oakland 3-13

NFC East

NY Giants 10-6

Washington 9-7

Dallas 8-8

Philly 7-9

NFC North

Minnesota 10-6

Green Bay 8-8

Chicago 8-8

Detroit 3-13

NFC South

New Orleans 10-6

Carolina 9-7

Atlanta 9-7

Tampa Bay 4-12

NFC West

Arizona 10-6

San Fran 8-8

Seattle 6-10

St Louis 4-12

 

[Frenchy Fuqua]

Boy I don't see the Pats going 14-2 with that D and this schedule:

Home: Buffalo, Miami, N.Y. Jets, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Baltimore, Atlanta, Carolina

Away: Buffalo, Miami, N.Y. Jets, Houston, Indianapolis, Denver, New Orleans, Tampa Bay

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

I think the AFC is pretty cut and dry barring major injuries the following teams are locks: NE,Pitt,Indy,SD.

That only leaves two open spots, I expect Balt and Miami to faulter some and not make it, Tennessee should be right back in there. That leaves one spot. not sure who but since we are guessing I'll take the NYJ - I expect them to add Garcia or someone.

The NFC is wide open, NYG,Minny,Carolina,Arz all are the division favorites IMO with Dallas,Atl and NO are serious challenegers to division titles. Philly and Washington while tough dont get it done this year.

 

[nittanylion]

2009 Projected Playoffs:NYG, Minn, Car, Ariz / two of Dal/No/AtlNEP, Pitt, Ind, SDC / two of Mia/Tenn/HouThat's as far as I'm going for now.

WAY TO GO OUT ON A LIMB......and include 10 of the 12 playoff teams from 2009, along with the 2009 AFC and NFC pre-season favourites (NEP/DAL) bub.

Guess I just don't see much changing at the top!Seriously, though - these are mid-March predictions. Outside of the first wave of Free Agency, not much has changed from 2008, so for the snapshot called 'today', that's what it looks like to me...we've all seen many times over that anything is possible, but this coming Season, I just don't see much change in the status quo.

 

[Ghost of Bill Walsh]

I'm sure this will keep changing, but for today let's see what we have.

NFC West

San Fran 10-6: Singletary is cooking up something

Arizona 10-6: Maybe they can repeat some of last year.

St Louis 6-10: They will get better.

Seattle 6-10: They have problems

NFC West

1.Arizona 11-5: Warner's back and I think they find a way to keep Boldin for at least this year. If one of the better rated rookie RB's is left they take him in Rd.1 and work them into being the lead back. If they can't get one of these top 5(Moreno,McCoy,S.Greene,D.Brown,B.Wells) in the 1st there's no sense trading up to take rb they can probably get inthe 3rd like R.Jennings,J.Johnson, J.Ringer or Peerman.They're defense played better late but they need to get help there as well. I can see them winning the division again but it might be tougher if they don't get somewhat of a running game. I see them finishing no worse than 10-6.

2. San Francisco 49ers 9-7: We have so many need areas hard to predict who they'll take at #10. Singletary IS taking over but I think it's paramount he have a good first NFL draft. I keep hearing QB Sanchez @10. I'm not convinced yet he's a franchise QB to take that high,( see experiment #1 Alex Smith), so Singletary may go defense @10. I like the Brandon Jones signing and I think he'll fit good in S.F. Can he be a #1 guy, don't know. The Niners are still pretty high on Jason Hill and Josh Morgan. Will Ike Bruce,who led the49ers last year in receiving be back, possibly.If they're gonna compete for the division I don't think he's the guy to get them there. I say go with the 3 young amigos(insert gratuitous hip thrust) Jones,Hill,Morganand see how they fare. Shaun Hill is not a franchise QB,IMO, but could be decent enoughuntil theyfind they're franchise QB, which they may not get this year. Help Gore out some and I think they'll finish no worse than 2nd in the division.

3. Seattle 8-8: Will Hasselbeck hold up all year? They better hope so since getting Houshyomama. If they have to rely on Wallace it's gonna be tough. Still getting TJH automatically boosts their offense. Just don't think even with him they'll win the division. There's the possibility they could go 9-7 for 2nd place.

4. St.Louis Rams 6-10: Jackson may get back to form but I think they're hurtin' like a lot of other teams to put together a solid winning team on both sides of the ball.

 

[PranksterJD]

I feel like people are sleeping on Seattle. I'm not sure they're division winning material, but with only a few key pieces they could be much better than the 6 wins that most are giving them credit for.

Hasselbeck is a big part of this, and while he looked particularly unhealthy last year I think it was mainly because they kept trying to get him back as early as they could, and that was communicated to the media poorly ( and often ). Get this guy in there for 14-16 games, add a 2nd round RB and it really wouldn't surprise me to see 8 or 10 wins out of this team.

 

[Toads]

I feel like people are sleeping on Seattle. I'm not sure they're division winning material, but with only a few key pieces they could be much better than the 6 wins that most are giving them credit for.

Hasselbeck is a big part of this, and while he looked particularly unhealthy last year I think it was mainly because they kept trying to get him back as early as they could, and that was communicated to the media poorly ( and often ). Get this guy in there for 14-16 games, add a 2nd round RB and it really wouldn't surprise me to see 8 or 10 wins out of this team.

SEA is a borderline .500 team because of it's pass DEF....ranked pretty close to last in the league in '08.Fixing the OFF, getting a reliable WR....that's only a small part of fixing this outfit. They need to be able to get the OFF on the field to be able to win more games and getting the DEF off the field is the gateway to that purpose.

More stops....less points given up.....that's the ticket in SEA.

 

[Buddy Ball 2K3]

The Giants offense is going to be horrible this year. I believe they have a very hard time reaching 12 wins let alone 14.

 

[Workhorse]

Boy I don't see the Pats going 14-2 with that D and this schedule:

Home: Buffalo, Miami, N.Y. Jets, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Baltimore, Atlanta, Carolina

Away: Buffalo, Miami, N.Y. Jets, Houston, Indianapolis, Denver, New Orleans, Tampa Bay

"That D" could be quite a bit better, at least in the secondary, which was their achillles heal last season. Adding Leigh Bodden and Springs will go a long way toward shoring up the CBs. Plus, they have all those Day 1 draft picks available and still have some cap room. The Patriots defense could be surprisingly good this coming season.

 

[The Hank]

My predictions:

AFC NORTH

Pittsburgh Steelers - 14-2

Baltimore Ravens - 8-8

Cincinnati Bengals - 6-10

Cleveland Browns - 4-12

AFC EAST

Miami Dolphins - 12-4

New England Patriots - 11-5

New York Jets - 10-6

Buffalo Bills - 7-9

AFC SOUTH

Houston Texans - 11-5

Indianapolis Colts - 10-6

Tennessee Titans - 7-9

Jacksonville Jaguars - 6-10

AFC WEST



San Diego Chargers - 11-5

Kansas City Chiefs - 8-8

Denver Broncos - 7-9

Oakland Raiders - 3-13

NFC NORTH

Minnesota Vikings - 12-4

Green Bay Packers - 10-6

Chicago Bears - 8-8

Detroit Lions - 2-14

NFC EAST



New York Giants - 13-3

Dallas Cowboys - 10-6

Philadelphia Eagles - 8-8

Washington Redskins - 7-9

NFC SOUTH

New Orleans Saints - 11-5

Carolina Panthers - 10-6

Atlanta Falcons - 9-7

Tampa Bay Buccanneers - 5-11

NFC WEST

Arizona Cardinals - 12-4

Seattle Seahawks - 9-7

San Francisco 49ers - 7-9

St. Louis Rams - 4-12

PLAYOFFS

AFC: PIT, MIA, HOU, SD, NE, NYJ

NFC: MIN, NYG, NO, ARI, CAR, DAL

SUPERBOWL

PIT vs. NYG

Winner: PIT = 24-13

 

[Tanner9919]

The Giants offense is going to be horrible this year. I believe they have a very hard time reaching 12 wins let alone 14.

as a Giants fan, I hope you're wrong.. ;-)if the Giants do not get Plax back in the folds, I'd expect them to throw the kitchen sink at Cleveland for Braylon, perhaps its just a waiting game for now, until Plax's court date later this month ( I believe it's in late March ).

if the Giants take a step back, one team that will likely rise in 2009, is the Washington Redskins..I'm not sure why Ministry of Pain ( thread's originator) had them down for a 4-12 season, but one only needs to look at the easy-as-pie schedule to see that the Redskins are playoff bound, almost by default - as if to say, they need to REALLY screw things up to miss the post season..they're more than capable of looking like the hapless Raiders, but when you play St Louis, Atl, Oak, Det, Denver, KC, N.O., TB, and a defensively challenged NFC East with key free agent losses in both Dallas and Philly, one gets the idea that the Redskins will be a 10-6 or 11-5 team in 2009, good enough for a playoff spot..

hey, Miami made the post-season in 2008, as did Az, and neither team did well during the 2007 season...

there's no way Washington finishes just 4-12...that schedule is just too easy !

 

[bostonfred]

I think the Pats are one of the hardest teams to set the over/under for. The real question is Tom Brady's health. Right now, it's assumed to be pretty good. Now might be a good time to buy that line at 11.5 or so for the under. Then if there's a scare with his knee, and the line dips, you can buy the over, which might dip down to 10 or lower on the news. If there isn't, you just bet the Pats all year.

I really like their chances to end up at 10-11 wins this year without Brady, and I like their chances to have another record breaking year if he's 100%. It seems like a good opportunity, especially if you're already inclined to root against them.

 

[Ron_Mexico]

Boy I don't see the Pats going 14-2 with that D and this schedule:

Home: Buffalo, Miami, N.Y. Jets, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Baltimore, Atlanta, Carolina

Away: Buffalo, Miami, N.Y. Jets, Houston, Indianapolis, Denver, New Orleans, Tampa Bay

I agree with FF.I'd love to see it, but I think their schedule is brutal.

12-4 sounds more realistic.

 

[shredhead]

Denver 4-12: Turmoil right now

How's that kind bud tastin MoP? :needasmiliesmokingreeferhereenver's overhyped turmoil will be long over by training camp. They have been one of the more active teams in free agency and have done a lot to change the defense. The offense will be top 10 again, and I look for improvement on the defensive side of the ball. We'll see what happens in the draft. I actually think Denver will be a better team next season. I don't know if the record will indicate improvement as they will have a harder schedule. I look for them to hover around .500 again. Put Denver at 8-8 or 9-7 and put KC at 6-10 or 7-9 I think that will be closer to the end of season standings.I like the idea of this thread. I will post my full predictions when I can. I hope this thread keeps going. I'd like to see people update their predictions after the draft and into training camp.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Anyone still think Denver is not a complete loss of cabin pressure at this point? I am one of the few that stands behind Cutler. McDaniels may move on and become a great HC in the NFL but the fact is he is super young...a lot of starting Qbs are older than he is, he simply does not have the track record as a HC to get caught with his hands in the cookie jar and recover.

BTW: Who is the GM for Denver right now? I rate him pretty low right now as McDaniel should not be getting all the heat.

I clipped this form RedZone, only about 2 hrs old at the moment.

Divorce in Denver Inevitable?

Mike Klis reports in the Denver Post it now appears a real possibility the two sides are headed for a divorce based on irreconcilable differences.

"I'm very disappointed," Broncos owner Pat Bowlen said Sunday of the feud between his quarterback and first-year coach. "I'm disappointed in the whole picture, not just disappointed that we might lose our star quarterback."

Asked to clarify, Bowlen said he is steadfastly supports his new coach and his disappointment lies in the way Cutler has handled the situation.

Friction between Cutler and McDaniels appears to have escalated following a meeting Saturday. Attending the meeting were Cutler, his agent Bus Cook, McDaniels and Broncos general manager Brian Xanders.

The Broncos say no ultimatums were given during the Saturday meeting, which the team characterized as mild-mannered, with no raised voices. However, no reconciliation was reached.

15/3/2009 5:01 PM

I think the parents selling their house is the final nail in the coffin for me. I never thought the two sides would be able to come together on this anyways. Is Pat regretting the SHanny fire about now? Not sure but I am sure he feels like he is going to look foolish for Cutler leaving.

 

[ScottyFargo]

Anyone still think Denver is not a complete loss of cabin pressure at this point? I am one of the few that stands behind Cutler.

No man, Denver is in quite a pickle.

 

[Pat Patriot]

Boy I don't see the Pats going 14-2 with that D and this schedule:

Home: Buffalo, Miami, N.Y. Jets, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Baltimore, Atlanta, Carolina

Away: Buffalo, Miami, N.Y. Jets, Houston, Indianapolis, Denver, New Orleans, Tampa Bay

I agree with FF.I'd love to see it, but I think their schedule is brutal.

12-4 sounds more realistic.

Where are the 4 losses? I see at worst a 7-1 home record. Tenn, Balt, and Carolina probably are the toughest games but the Pats should win 2 of 3.The threats on the road are Houston and New Orleans.

As has been said earlier in the thread, Indy is on the way down. Denver is not as good as years past. Jets dont have a QB. Miami will fall back to the pack.

I see at worst 13-3.

 

[Chase Stuart]

The Simple Rating System can help form a baseline here. Each team's rating is equal to its margin of victory plus its strength of schedule rating, where a tough schedule has a positive rating.

BAL 8.8 1.0 9.8PIT 7.8 2.0 9.8TEN 8.8 0.1 8.9NYG 8.3 0.1 8.4PHI 7.9 -0.1 7.8IND 4.9 1.5 6.5CAR 5.3 0.3 5.6SDG 5.8 -0.8 5.0NOR 4.4 -0.3 4.0MIN 2.9 1.2 4.0NWE 6.3 -2.4 3.9ATL 4.1 -0.3 3.8GNB 2.4 0.4 2.9TAM 2.4 -0.1 2.3CHI 1.6 0.5 2.1DAL - 0.2 0.8 0.6NYJ 3.1 -2.8 0.2HOU - 1.8 1.3 - 0.4MIA 1.8 -2.3 - 0.5WAS - 1.9 0.2 - 1.8ARI 0.1 -1.9 - 1.9JAX - 4.1 1.5 - 2.5BUF - 0.4 -3.0 - 3.3CLE - 7.4 2.7 - 4.7SFO - 2.6 -2.7 - 5.3DEN - 4.9 -0.9 - 5.8CIN -10.0 3.0 - 7.0OAK - 7.8 0.3 - 7.5SEA - 6.1 -1.5 - 7.6KAN - 9.3 0.1 - 9.2DET -15.6 2.4 -13.1STL -14.6 -0.5 -15.1That reads: the Ravens outscored their opponents by 8.8 PPG, their opponents were 1.0 PPG better than average (after adjusting their margin of victory by the SOS of their opponents) which gives them an ultimate rating of 9.8. We've discussed the SRS several times here and it's far from perfect but it's: 1) simple and 2) better, as a predictive tool, than using win-loss record. This means the '08 Ravens were 9.8 points better than average, the Chargers were 5.0 points better than average, and the Rams were 15.1 points below average.http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=538

The SRS has a lot of uses, including some predictive ability for the next season.

For example, the correlation coefficient between team winning percentage in Year N and team winning percentage in Year N+1 is 0.29; that means there’s a mild correlation between winning percentages from year to year. But the correlation coefficient of each team’s SRS score in Year N and the team’s Year N+1 winning percentage is 0.32, a slight increase. Perhaps more importantly, teams with average SRS ratings and really high or really low winning percentages, generally come back to the pack the next season.

We can also create a formula to predict winning percentage in Year N+1. After performing a regression, the best-fit formula to predict Wins in Year N+1 is 16 * (0.503 + SRS_Yr_N * .01). That means every additional point of SRS is worth just 0.16 wins the following year. That doesn’t sound very convincing, even if it may be true. No doubt part of the problem is injuries the next year are unpredictable and compress the ratings, and the SRS of course ignores any and all off-season changes. That being said, here’s a list of the projected number of wins for each team:

Here would be the 2009 predicted standings:
9.6 BAL9.6 PIT9.4 TEN9.3 NYG9.3 PHI9.0 IND8.9 CAR8.8 SDG8.6 NOR8.6 MIN8.6 NWE8.6 ATL8.5 GNB8.4 TAM8.3 CHI8.1 DAL8.0 NYJ7.9 HOU7.9 MIA7.7 WAS7.7 ARI7.6 JAX7.5 BUF7.3 CLE7.2 SFO7.1 DEN6.9 CIN6.8 OAK6.8 SEA6.5 KAN5.9 DET5.6 STLThe obvious takeaway there is that the standings are tightly packed. That's correct, though; they should be tightly packed. Teams are pretty close in talent in the NFL, and small free agent moves, draft picks, coaching changes, luck and injuries can make a big difference. I remember last year a bunch of people here thought the '08 Bears had no chance of a winning record, and their O/U of 8 wins was absurd. But the SRS projected them as an 8.2 win team, Vegas had them as an 8 win team, and they won 9 games. Anyway, this is just a decent starting point for projections, and certainly a better one than last year's win-loss record. A typical off season of moves and we'd expect Detroit to have 6 more wins in '09; if they go 6-10, that won't mean the coach or GM did an amazing job or something out of the ordinary happened.

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

Boy I don't see the Pats going 14-2 with that D and this schedule:

Home: Buffalo, Miami, N.Y. Jets, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Baltimore, Atlanta, Carolina

Away: Buffalo, Miami, N.Y. Jets, Houston, Indianapolis, Denver, New Orleans, Tampa Bay

I agree with FF.I'd love to see it, but I think their schedule is brutal.

12-4 sounds more realistic.

Where are the 4 losses? I see at worst a 7-1 home record. Tenn, Balt, and Carolina probably are the toughest games but the Pats should win 2 of 3.The threats on the road are Houston and New Orleans.

As has been said earlier in the thread, Indy is on the way down. Denver is not as good as years past. Jets dont have a QB. Miami will fall back to the pack.

I see at worst 13-3.

13-3 at WORST?!?!?That is not an easy schedule, and the Pats D is not elite enough to guarantee 13 wins. I'm not saying they can't or won't reach 13+ wins.... but that simply cannot be their floor.

Serious homer-colored glasses.

 

[MaddHatter]

AFC East

3 New England 11-5

Miami 9-7

Buffalo 7-9

NY Jets 5-11

AFC North

1 Pittsburgh 13-3

6 Cincinnati 9-7

Baltimore 9-7

Cleveland 3-13

AFC South

2 Indianapolis 12-4

5 Houston 10-6

Jacksonville 5-11

Tennessee 3-13

AFC West

4 San Diego 10-6

Kansas City 9-7

Denver 4-12

Oakland 2-14

AFC Wild Card

New England over Cincinnati

San Diego over Houston

AFC Divisional

New England over Indianapolis

Pittsburgh over San Diego

AFC Championship

Pittsburgh over New England

NFC East

2 NY Giants 11-5

Philadelphia 9-7

Dallas 9-7

Washington 5-11

NFC North

3 Green Bay 10-6

6 Minnesota 10-6

Chicago 6-10

Detroit 4-12

NFC South

1 New Orleans 14-2

5 Atlanta 11-5

Carolina 5-11

Tampa Bay 3-13

NFC West

4 Arizona 10-6

San Francisco 8-8

St. Louis 6-10

Seattle 2-14

NFC Wild Card

Minnesota over Green Bay

Atlanta over Arizona

NFC Divisional

New Orleans over Minnesota

NY Giants over Atlanta

NFC Championship

New Orleans over NY Giants

Super Bowl

New Orleans over Pittsburgh

(Eagles, not Saints fan here)

 

[Ripleys]

another year, another thread where the majority pick the Skins to win 4-5 games. Check out their schedule, they win at least 8-9 games, maybe more if Hanesworth is still hungry after his payday.

 

[puckalicious]

I haven't checked, but is everyone considering the maximum possible wins/losses for the entire league when making projections?

32 teams x 16 games / 2 = 256 total available "wins" and 256 total available "losses".

I get the feeling most predictions here are just gut feelings and not based on going through each team's 2009 schedule and adding up W's and L's, which I am certainly guilty of myself.

 

[bcr8f]

NFC NorthMinnesota 12-4: QB...check, all systems GO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Chicago 6-10: Smoke and mirrors only works for so longGreen Bay 5-11: Just keeps getting worseDetroit 1-15: Good Luck!!!

Rosenfels?

 

[Ministry of Pain]

NFC NorthMinnesota 12-4: QB...check, all systems GO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Chicago 6-10: Smoke and mirrors only works for so longGreen Bay 5-11: Just keeps getting worseDetroit 1-15: Good Luck!!!

Rosenfels?

Hey Bcr,They won 10 games last year without much of a QB...no reason to think Sage couldn't flourish with a nice OL and great running game behind him.

 

[Steel Dillo]

AFC North

Steelers - 11-5

They kept the team together for the most part (not sure thats a good thing with the o-line), with the only real losses to the championship team being Nate Washington & McFadden. Both should be replaceable.

Bengals - 9-7

Palmer's back and the defense actually woke up last year. Losing Housh hurts some, but Coles can fill that role if healthy. Benson was a nice suprise.

Ravens - 7-9

The offense will be a little better than last year, but I just have a feeling that the defense is in for a let down with the loss of the DC, Bart Scott & Jim Leonard (very under-rated safety).

Browns - 5-11

As a Quinn owner, I'm hoping for the best, but I don't see much development. Lewis needs to be relegated to a Bettis role & let someone else take over as the lead dog (Wells???). Brickhands Edwards inspires no confidence & unless Mangini can fix that defense, they are in for another long year.