projecting touchdowns (1 Viewer)

[moleculo]

this applies both pre-season projections and weekly projections - how do people do this?

TD's seem like a pretty random thing. They very much occur with flip-of-the-coin randomness. A RB will get pulled @ the goal line, a WR might bobble the ball as he falls to the ground, etc. Yet, those 6 points from a TD are huge and arguably, what FF is driven by.

I don't have a good feeling as to how predictable TD's are, especially for a given player. Has anyone ever done a study on the accuracy of predicting TD's?

 

[zoobird]

Not sure about whether anyone has studied the accuracy of projected TD forecasts by various services, and I know a lot more about fantasy baseball than football. That said, here are some thoughts on your question:

-I'd agree that TDs probably have higher variance from year to year than other stats (like receptions or yards)

-To large degree, the key isn't 'skill' (which past performance would be most useful for analyzing) as much as health, playing time, or situational usage

-Extreme results (whether on the low end when adjusted for playing time/situation or on the high end) are likely to regress towards average the next season.

 

[GregR_2]

You're playing an averages game when projecting for the season. How much do you expect the team to score in general. What kind of distribution will they have in rush vs pass in the red zone? How will they distribute red zone carries. Are some players more of a red zone target than others?

You try to factor those in, along with the schedule they play and the talent of the player and what they've done in the past, and make your best guess.

For weekly results, you could just average the numbers over each of their games (i.e. if you project them at 8 TDs on the year that's 0.5 TDs per game to put in their projection for each week). Or you could do more and factor in things like opponent, points allowed by the defense, the quality of their run vs pass defense, etc, and again, make a best guess and try to come up with a number.

 

[dparker713]

Predicting TDs week to week: Unpossible