Projections are finally finished (1 Viewer)

[Unlucky]

I'm finally done. I started out posting a new thread for each team, but I haven't had time to do that for the 2nd half of the teams.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I project players to play a full season unless they are currently injured. Two reasons for this: you can't predict injuries, and I want to see how players rank relative to each other on a PPG basis. Therefore, the number of RBs that get 1000 yds is historically higher than normal. I know this. Some of these guys will get hurt and not play 16 games, thus the numbers won't be there at the end of the season.

I really struggled to not be high on everyone. It's the time of year when everyone is going to be better than last year.

This caused me to feel like my projections are really bland. Safe. I hate that! I end up with similar rankings as everyone else, and that is NOT how you win at FF.

So, go ahead and rip them apart. I dare you. Have at it.

http://www.phenomsff.com/projections/index.html

 

[OCC]

I'm finally done. I started out posting a new thread for each team, but I haven't had time to do that for the 2nd half of the teams.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I project players to play a full season unless they are currently injured. Two reasons for this: you can't predict injuries, and I want to see how players rank relative to each other on a PPG basis. Therefore, the number of RBs that get 1000 yds is historically higher than normal. I know this. Some of these guys will get hurt and not play 16 games, thus the numbers won't be there at the end of the season.

I really struggled to not be high on everyone. It's the time of year when everyone is going to be better than last year.

This caused me to feel like my projections are really bland. Safe. I hate that! I end up with similar rankings as everyone else, and that is NOT how you win at FF.

So, go ahead and rip them apart. I dare you. Have at it.

http://www.phenomsff.com/projections/index.html

One of the best set of projections I've seen. =)

 

[JAA]

VY is going to have more rushing TDs than Brown+White+Henry?

not so sure

 

[obxlegends]

I'm finally done. I started out posting a new thread for each team, but I haven't had time to do that for the 2nd half of the teams.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I project players to play a full season unless they are currently injured. Two reasons for this: you can't predict injuries, and I want to see how players rank relative to each other on a PPG basis. Therefore, the number of RBs that get 1000 yds is historically higher than normal. I know this. Some of these guys will get hurt and not play 16 games, thus the numbers won't be there at the end of the season.

I really struggled to not be high on everyone. It's the time of year when everyone is going to be better than last year.

This caused me to feel like my projections are really bland. Safe. I hate that! I end up with similar rankings as everyone else, and that is NOT how you win at FF.

So, go ahead and rip them apart. I dare you. Have at it.

http://www.phenomsff.com/projections/index.html

I really enjoyed the projections. I can tell a lot of thought went into it. My lingering question is you have 12 RB's having 1,300 yard rushing seasons when last year there were only 7. What's the reason for this jump in your opinion?Thanks again for your hard work.

 

[Blackjacks]

I'm finally done. I started out posting a new thread for each team, but I haven't had time to do that for the 2nd half of the teams.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I project players to play a full season unless they are currently injured. Two reasons for this: you can't predict injuries, and I want to see how players rank relative to each other on a PPG basis. Therefore, the number of RBs that get 1000 yds is historically higher than normal. I know this. Some of these guys will get hurt and not play 16 games, thus the numbers won't be there at the end of the season.

I really struggled to not be high on everyone. It's the time of year when everyone is going to be better than last year.

This caused me to feel like my projections are really bland. Safe. I hate that! I end up with similar rankings as everyone else, and that is NOT how you win at FF.

So, go ahead and rip them apart. I dare you. Have at it.

http://www.phenomsff.com/projections/index.html

I really enjoyed the projections. I can tell a lot of thought went into it. My lingering question is you have 12 RB's having 1,300 yard rushing seasons when last year there were only 7. What's the reason for this jump in your opinion?Thanks again for your hard work.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

Great work unlucky.

 

[Brutis]

Best set of Projections I've seen so far. Not your run of the mill cookie cutter ones.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Good work, as always, Mike.

A little confused on the Jets projections. You have them throwing 510 times, which seems really high. I'm not sure why you're increasing the team pass attempts now that the Jets have a legitimate rushing attack. Last year, NY averaged 3.5 YPC, and this year you have them at 4.0. Yet you have the Jets rushing 36 fewer times, while also passing more effectively (YPA and TD/INT ratio). Projecting the Jets to pass for 3600+ yards seems a bit high, and as a result, I think you've overprojected Coles and Cotchery.

 

[nygiants56]

I'm finally done. I started out posting a new thread for each team, but I haven't had time to do that for the 2nd half of the teams.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I project players to play a full season unless they are currently injured. Two reasons for this: you can't predict injuries, and I want to see how players rank relative to each other on a PPG basis. Therefore, the number of RBs that get 1000 yds is historically higher than normal. I know this. Some of these guys will get hurt and not play 16 games, thus the numbers won't be there at the end of the season.

I really struggled to not be high on everyone. It's the time of year when everyone is going to be better than last year.

This caused me to feel like my projections are really bland. Safe. I hate that! I end up with similar rankings as everyone else, and that is NOT how you win at FF.

So, go ahead and rip them apart. I dare you. Have at it.

http://www.phenomsff.com/projections/index.html

I dunno, putting Maroney down for 14 tds is reaching..you're fishing with that one... No NE RB has scored more than 13 TDs since Bellichick began coaching up there. They spread the ball around. Moss is likely to see 10-13 TDs, more than any WR Brady has ever thrown to..Just can't see Maroney scoring that many times, let alone rushing for 1200+ yards, with his bum shoulder and all..

you do know SA's is dealing with a broken foot and is going to 30 on august 30th, right? I mean, 1500+ yards and 18 rush tds for a 30 something RB is kind of unheard of..its not a common thing.

Morency is out 2 weeks with a knee injury ALREADY ( go figure, this guy is ALWAYS hurt), yet you have him down for 1120 yards ?

Brandon Jacobs scoring 13 TDS and rushing for over 1300+ yards, is wishful thinking, imo..Droughns is on the roster, the O-line is banged up and piece-meal, and Kevin Gilbride is going to use a lot of chuck-n-duck passing plays..the defense is slipping,badly. Time of Possession for the Giants should be down significantly.

Portis has a bum shoulder and knee tendinitis, but you're projecting 296 carries, the 3rd highest amount of carries in his NFL career? Betts will most definitely see more than 144 carries..Portis' knee is already acting up!

Just don't see LT rushing for 1775 this season,thats the second highest total of his career. I think they use Turner more than ever, to rest LT, he's is,afterall, 28 with 2050 carries to his name..thats a LOT of work thru the years for a RB..

Vincent Jackson is in his 3rd season, the breakout year for WR's. He figures to score a bunch of TDs around the goalline with his height..Tomlinson should probably get somewhere around 1350-1400 yards, 16-18 tds..50 receptions.

Torry Holt has only once caught more that 10 tds in a season, yet you have him down for 13 tds and 98 receptions,at the age of 31..despite the fact he went 9 games last season without a TD.

thanks for the work , I like a lot of the other projections..!

 

[Chase Stuart]

you do know SA's is dealing with a broken foot and is going to 30 on august 30th, right? I mean, 1500+ yards and 18 rush tds for a 30 something RB is kind of unheard of..its not a common thing.

1500+ rushing yards has been reached six times by 30 or older players, and five more times by 29 year old RBs.

 

[Unlucky]

Good work, as always, Mike.A little confused on the Jets projections. You have them throwing 510 times, which seems really high. I'm not sure why you're increasing the team pass attempts now that the Jets have a legitimate rushing attack. Last year, NY averaged 3.5 YPC, and this year you have them at 4.0. Yet you have the Jets rushing 36 fewer times, while also passing more effectively (YPA and TD/INT ratio). Projecting the Jets to pass for 3600+ yards seems a bit high, and as a result, I think you've overprojected Coles and Cotchery.

Yeah, that one really bugged me. It makes no sense. However, the Jets had one of the easiest schedules last year, and I feel it will be much tougher going this year, thus having to pass more often late in games. Plus, I like Cotchery's talent enough to give him those numbers, despite the system.

 

[NYGus]

I'm finally done. I started out posting a new thread for each team, but I haven't had time to do that for the 2nd half of the teams.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I project players to play a full season unless they are currently injured. Two reasons for this: you can't predict injuries, and I want to see how players rank relative to each other on a PPG basis. Therefore, the number of RBs that get 1000 yds is historically higher than normal. I know this. Some of these guys will get hurt and not play 16 games, thus the numbers won't be there at the end of the season.

I really struggled to not be high on everyone. It's the time of year when everyone is going to be better than last year.

This caused me to feel like my projections are really bland. Safe. I hate that! I end up with similar rankings as everyone else, and that is NOT how you win at FF.

So, go ahead and rip them apart. I dare you. Have at it.

http://www.phenomsff.com/projections/index.html

One of the best set of projections I've seen. =)

I agree. Nice job. Be prepared for people to rip you about having Steve Smith so low.

 

[Unlucky]

My replies are in bold

I dunno, putting Maroney down for 14 tds is reaching..you're fishing with that one... No NE RB has scored more than 13 TDs since Bellichick began coaching up there. They spread the ball around. Moss is likely to see 10-13 TDs, more than any WR Brady has ever thrown to..

Just can't see Maroney scoring that many times, let alone rushing for 1200+ yards, with his bum shoulder and all..

The NE offense is going to be awesome, and Maroney will be the guy on the ground. Dillon ran for 13 last year, with Maroney getting 6, and now that Dillon is gone, projecting 14 for Maroney is fishing? I believe NE has spread the ball around because they have had a lot of mediocre talent, thus nobody deserved all of the looks. Troy Brown had 101 catches in 2001 and 97 in 2002 with Brady as the QB. You think Moss, still just 30 years old, isn't better than Troy Brown was?

you do know SA's is dealing with a broken foot and is going to 30 on august 30th, right? I mean, 1500+ yards and 18 rush tds for a 30 something RB is kind of unheard of..its not a common thing.

I agree. But who else is going to carry the ball, Maurice Morris? You have to realize that I'm putting Alexander on that pace, but he might miss time and not reach those numbers. I'm sure you'll find a lot of 30+ RBs that were on pace for 1500+ and 18, but missed a couple of games and didn't get there. Right now, I'm confident in Alexander's health. When I learn something different, I'll adjust

Morency is out 2 weeks with a knee injury ALREADY ( go figure, this guy is ALWAYS hurt), yet you have him down for 1120 yards ?

I haven't updated this. His numbers need to come down.

Brandon Jacobs scoring 13 TDS and rushing for over 1300+ yards, is wishful thinking, imo..Droughns is on the roster, the O-line is banged up and piece-meal, and Kevin Gilbride is going to use a lot of chuck-n-duck passing plays..the defense is slipping,badly. Time of Possession for the Giants should be down significantly.

I like Jacobs' talent. For me, it came down to his YPC, which has been good. I trust that he can handle the load. Droughns is crap. He had one good season in Denver, which makes every RB look like gold.

Portis has a bum shoulder and knee tendinitis, but you're projecting 296 carries, the 3rd highest amount of carries in his NFL career? Betts will most definitely see more than 144 carries..Portis' knee is already acting up!

Again, I'm assuming Portis plays 16 games. You can judge how likely that is, and this is one where I agree it's not that likely. But to state that I'm projecting the 3rd highest carries in his career - he's only played 5 seasons and one of those he played 8 games! So, I'm saying this will be his 2nd LOWEST number of carries in a full season

Just don't see LT rushing for 1775 this season,thats the second highest total of his career. I think they use Turner more than ever, to rest LT, he's is,afterall, 28 with 2050 carries to his name..thats a LOT of work thru the years for a RB..

Vincent Jackson is in his 3rd season, the breakout year for WR's. He figures to score a bunch of TDs around the goalline with his height..Tomlinson should probably get somewhere around 1350-1400 yards, 16-18 tds..50 receptions.

Two words for you: Norv Turner

Torry Holt has only once caught more that 10 tds in a season, yet you have him down for 13 tds and 98 receptions,at the age of 31..despite the fact he went 9 games last season without a TD.

I have Holt for 10 TDs.

thanks for the work , I like a lot of the other projections..!

Thanks for the feedback! I really do appreciate it. It either helps me reinforce my thoughts, or realize that I'm an idiot.

 

[Unlucky]

Also, if someone has some time: where do my projections differ the most from the "consensus". I haven't really paid attention to everyone else's projections/rankings yet, so I want to know where I stray. This is the key to success - having those couple of guys that outperform, and avoiding those that underperform. Even if I'm not accurate on how much they'll over/under perform, just being correct about the guys that are under/over valued will lead to building successful fantasy teams.

 

[WarRedbirds]

Kevan Barlow doesn't figure into the mix?

W. PARKER PIT RB 340 1496 4.40 13 6 1 48 394 8.2 2 3 276 328 N. DAVENPORT PIT RB 75 285 3.80 1 10 100 10.0 1 51 56 V. HAYNES PIT RB 15 63 4.20 0 15 113 7.5 0 18 25

 

[Chase Stuart]

Good work, as always, Mike.A little confused on the Jets projections. You have them throwing 510 times, which seems really high. I'm not sure why you're increasing the team pass attempts now that the Jets have a legitimate rushing attack. Last year, NY averaged 3.5 YPC, and this year you have them at 4.0. Yet you have the Jets rushing 36 fewer times, while also passing more effectively (YPA and TD/INT ratio). Projecting the Jets to pass for 3600+ yards seems a bit high, and as a result, I think you've overprojected Coles and Cotchery.

Yeah, that one really bugged me. It makes no sense. However, the Jets had one of the easiest schedules last year, and I feel it will be much tougher going this year, thus having to pass more often late in games. Plus, I like Cotchery's talent enough to give him those numbers, despite the system.

The Jets had one of the toughest schedules last year.

 

[Deuce'sWild]

Not too high on DeAngelo Williams I see?

 

[4 - Digit Shark]

Kevan Barlow doesn't figure into the mix?

W. PARKER PIT RB 340 1496 4.40 13 6 1 48 394 8.2 2 3 276 328 N. DAVENPORT PIT RB 75 285 3.80 1 10 100 10.0 1 51 56 V. HAYNES PIT RB 15 63 4.20 0 15 113 7.5 0 18 25

Local reports I've heard say Barlow hasn't been showing much so far at camp. Who knows if he'll even be around at the start of the season. Then again Haynes is still coming back from last years knee injury, so he's no lock to be around either.

 

[3C's]

Kevan Barlow doesn't figure into the mix?

W. PARKER PIT RB 340 1496 4.40 13 6 1 48 394 8.2 2 3 276 328 N. DAVENPORT PIT RB 75 285 3.80 1 10 100 10.0 1 51 56 V. HAYNES PIT RB 15 63 4.20 0 15 113 7.5 0 18 25

Good chance he gets cut.

 

[AB in DC]

On a completely separate note, a big for your blank template, which is the best template for projections that I've seen.

 

[Snotbubbles]

I doubt 17 RBs get 10+ rushing TDs next season.

 

[Jayrod]

I doubt 17 RBs get 10+ rushing TDs next season.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I project players to play a full season unless they are currently injured. Two reasons for this: you can't predict injuries, and I want to see how players rank relative to each other on a PPG basis. Therefore, the number of RBs that get 1000 yds is historically higher than normal. I know this. Some of these guys will get hurt and not play 16 games, thus the numbers won't be there at the end of the season.

 

[Deuce'sWild]

Would you have the balls to draft Big Ben in front of Brees?

 

[John Maddens Lunchbox]

Droughns is crap eh?

How many other guys have got 1000 yards in friggin Cleveland in the last 10 years?

 

[TaxMan]

I doubt Randy Moss catches 80+ balls in that offense.

I think Javon Walker is way too low, so does McGahee. McGahee should be in for a big big year. McNair likes to dump off too so Willis receptions will be more than 24.

I also dont believe AD will carry the rock 280+ times unless Chester gets hurt.

other than that, great job

 

[swirvenirvin]

FYI Marcus Robinson is on IR give those catches to shaun mcdonald

 

[My Hope Street Alias]

Great stuff, thanks. Wow, Peterson leaving Taylor in the dust.

 

[Unlucky]

Good work, as always, Mike.A little confused on the Jets projections. You have them throwing 510 times, which seems really high. I'm not sure why you're increasing the team pass attempts now that the Jets have a legitimate rushing attack. Last year, NY averaged 3.5 YPC, and this year you have them at 4.0. Yet you have the Jets rushing 36 fewer times, while also passing more effectively (YPA and TD/INT ratio). Projecting the Jets to pass for 3600+ yards seems a bit high, and as a result, I think you've overprojected Coles and Cotchery.

Yeah, that one really bugged me. It makes no sense. However, the Jets had one of the easiest schedules last year, and I feel it will be much tougher going this year, thus having to pass more often late in games. Plus, I like Cotchery's talent enough to give him those numbers, despite the system.

The Jets had one of the toughest schedules last year.

The Jets beat the following teams: TEN week 1 (they sucked), @BUF, MIA, DET, @NE (lone quality win), HOU, @GB, @MIN, @MIA, OAK. 9 of their 10 wins were against bad teams.

 

[Unlucky]

Would you have the balls to draft Big Ben in front of Brees?

No. Nor would you ever need to. If both are there, take Brees and then take Ben 4 rounds later.

 

[Unlucky]

Not too high on DeAngelo Williams I see?

I'm still not quite sold on him. I'm not sure that he's that much better than Foster, although some will disagree with me. To me, if he was really that much better, he would have gotten more playing time last year. I may be proven wrong, but I'd rather pass on a guy that outperforms my projections than draft a guy that underperforms my projections.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

Not too high on DeAngelo Williams I see?

I'm still not quite sold on him. I'm not sure that he's that much better than Foster, although some will disagree with me. To me, if he was really that much better, he would have gotten more playing time last year. I may be proven wrong, but I'd rather pass on a guy that outperforms my projections than draft a guy that underperforms my projections.

Maybe, but my "feeling" while reading stuff about Fox down here is that he is more of a "play the vet over the rookie" type than the average NFL coach. I think the only way that Williams was going to get a lot more carries than Foster last year was if he looked like Reggie Bush. Henning may have had something to do with that as well and he's gone now. Maybe I'm misreading the situation though.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Good work, as always, Mike.

A little confused on the Jets projections. You have them throwing 510 times, which seems really high. I'm not sure why you're increasing the team pass attempts now that the Jets have a legitimate rushing attack. Last year, NY averaged 3.5 YPC, and this year you have them at 4.0. Yet you have the Jets rushing 36 fewer times, while also passing more effectively (YPA and TD/INT ratio). Projecting the Jets to pass for 3600+ yards seems a bit high, and as a result, I think you've overprojected Coles and Cotchery.

Yeah, that one really bugged me. It makes no sense. However, the Jets had one of the easiest schedules last year, and I feel it will be much tougher going this year, thus having to pass more often late in games. Plus, I like Cotchery's talent enough to give him those numbers, despite the system.

The Jets had one of the toughest schedules last year.

The Jets beat the following teams: TEN week 1 (they sucked), @BUF, MIA, DET, @NE (lone quality win), HOU, @GB, @MIN, @MIA, OAK. 9 of their 10 wins were against bad teams.

I don't think that's how you judge whether a schedule is tough.http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/nfl06.htm

The Jets had the 8th hardest schedule last year according to that list.

 

[AnonymousBob]

Not too high on DeAngelo Williams I see?

I'm still not quite sold on him. I'm not sure that he's that much better than Foster, although some will disagree with me. To me, if he was really that much better, he would have gotten more playing time last year. I may be proven wrong, but I'd rather pass on a guy that outperforms my projections than draft a guy that underperforms my projections.

Maybe, but my "feeling" while reading stuff about Fox down here is that he is more of a "play the vet over the rookie" type than the average NFL coach. I think the only way that Williams was going to get a lot more carries than Foster last year was if he looked like Reggie Bush. Henning may have had something to do with that as well and he's gone now. Maybe I'm misreading the situation though.

If he likes to give more work to the the guy with seniority why would DeAngelo get more carries than DeShaun?

 

[evilempire]

Also, if someone has some time: where do my projections differ the most from the "consensus". I haven't really paid attention to everyone else's projections/rankings yet, so I want to know where I stray. This is the key to success - having those couple of guys that outperform, and avoiding those that underperform. Even if I'm not accurate on how much they'll over/under perform, just being correct about the guys that are under/over valued will lead to building successful fantasy teams.

I think, just off the top of my head, having Palmer down around sixth definitely deviates from the masses -- but you shouldn't kick yourself about it because that's how people win at this hobby. You have to have convictions in your projections. You also have Brandon Jacobs well higher and Reggie Bush well lower than most people feel. Among receivers the Steve Smith thing stands out. But I like how you have Lee Evans in the top 10. A few of my projections include -- Bulger No. 2 among QBs, Brees No. 8 McGahee No. 8 among RBs, Ronnie Brown No. 9, MJD No. 17 and Brandon Jacobs No. 29. Reggie Wayne No. 1 among WRs, Evans No. 6, Mark Clayton No. 14, Calvin No. 31 Nice job, unlucky. Keep 'em coming.

 

[Mr. Pink]

Good work, as always, Mike.

A little confused on the Jets projections. You have them throwing 510 times, which seems really high. I'm not sure why you're increasing the team pass attempts now that the Jets have a legitimate rushing attack. Last year, NY averaged 3.5 YPC, and this year you have them at 4.0. Yet you have the Jets rushing 36 fewer times, while also passing more effectively (YPA and TD/INT ratio). Projecting the Jets to pass for 3600+ yards seems a bit high, and as a result, I think you've overprojected Coles and Cotchery.

Yeah, that one really bugged me. It makes no sense. However, the Jets had one of the easiest schedules last year, and I feel it will be much tougher going this year, thus having to pass more often late in games. Plus, I like Cotchery's talent enough to give him those numbers, despite the system.

The Jets had one of the toughest schedules last year.

The Jets beat the following teams: TEN week 1 (they sucked), @BUF, MIA, DET, @NE (lone quality win), HOU, @GB, @MIN, @MIA, OAK. 9 of their 10 wins were against bad teams.

I don't think that's how you judge whether a schedule is tough.http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/nfl06.htm

The Jets had the 8th hardest schedule last year according to that list.

I gotta agree with Chase here. Miami (2), NE, Oak, Min and GB had very good defenses last season. Buffalo was middle of the pack. Ten, Det, and Houston, agreed...not so good.

 

[Roc Pile]

where is kenny irons....?

 

[tommyGunZ]

Look forward to your projections every year Unlucky. Thanks for sharing.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

Not too high on DeAngelo Williams I see?

I'm still not quite sold on him. I'm not sure that he's that much better than Foster, although some will disagree with me. To me, if he was really that much better, he would have gotten more playing time last year. I may be proven wrong, but I'd rather pass on a guy that outperforms my projections than draft a guy that underperforms my projections.

Maybe, but my "feeling" while reading stuff about Fox down here is that he is more of a "play the vet over the rookie" type than the average NFL coach. I think the only way that Williams was going to get a lot more carries than Foster last year was if he looked like Reggie Bush. Henning may have had something to do with that as well and he's gone now. Maybe I'm misreading the situation though.

If he likes to give more work to the the guy with seniority why would DeAngelo get more carries than DeShaun?

I mean that he likes to keep the vet involved and maybe trusts him more in certain situations. Now maybe that was legitimate, like in blitz pickups. But I think it was a factor and anyone downgrading Williams because Foster still got a decent number of carries last year is probably overstating it.

 

[Jetdoc]

By the way, it's Explanation, not Explaination.

 

[H.K.]

Droughns is crap eh?How many other guys have got 1000 yards in friggin Cleveland in the last 10 years?

He's got Jacobs slated for 315 carries for the Giants, good for 83% of ALL RB carries for NYG. Barber only had that level of workload one season, and there is no comparison between the two players talent level or situation to justify 315 carries. Assuming Jacobs actually lasts 16 games, he'll be closer to half those carries at the end of the year.

 

[GECKO]

Nice Job indeed Unlucky.Evilempire, I am impressed with your ranking. I would, however, like to know your thoughts on Harrison, Holt CJ and SS because I too am high on Wayne but not sure were I would rank him among these WR's.

Reggie Wayne No. 1 among WRs, Evans No. 6, Mark Clayton No. 14, Calvin No. 31

 

[code]

where is kenny irons....?

After looking over the numbers I was coming in here to post the same question...