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Projections now posted (1 Viewer)

Unlucky

Unlucky

Phenom
It's now Midnight Mountain Time. I'm on Indy. 19 teams to go. Takes me about 20 to 25 minutes per team. You do the math!

EDIT - ALL DONE. 12 straight hours total, plus 3 or 4 earlier in the week after spending 3 or 4 getting my spreadsheet ready.

Have at it!

 
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Unlucky said:
KC, MIA, and MIN done. 14 to go. I hope you are all enjoying your sleep.
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You think you're the only nut who projects stats at this hour? I'm just wrapping up the Jets going alphabetically, although I move much slower so I'm sure you'll pass me. And I have no intention of finishing tonight.Also, I need to get in a Phenoms league so there's a point to all this late-night stat-crunching.
 
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Spartans Rule said:
Unlucky said:
KC, MIA, and MIN done. 14 to go. I hope you are all enjoying your sleep.
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You think you're the only nut who projects stats at this hour? I'm just wrapping up the Jets going alphabetically, although I move much slower so I'm sure you'll pass me. And I have no intention of finishing tonight.Also, I need to get in a Phenoms league so there's a point to all this late-night stat-crunching.
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I thought I was the only nut. Aren't you on the East coast? 4:30 AM for you!It's now 3 AM here. Just finished NE and NO. 12 to go. Can I stay awake and sane for 6 more hours? Thanks to Sobe NoFear, you bet!
 
Jets and Raiders are done. I love Randy Moss, but somehow contained myself a little bit this year.

Was starting to contemplate going to bed, but I can't quit with just 9 teams to go. I'd hate to let you guys down.

 
Not soon enough...have to leave for work and we can't surf the net there....was hoping to email them to my work account.

At least I have something to look forward to tonight. :banned:

 
I'm flying now! Just 5 teams to go. Might be done by 8 AM Mountain time. Should only take a few minutes after that to post them.

 
Just TEN and WAS to go. T-minus 1 hour to projections being posted and me getting totally ripped. I can't wait to sleep.

 
I'm going to bed. I'll respond later to criticism.

Also, note that I really haven't looked at other's rankings/projections yet. I feel like these are kind of bland and conservative. Didn't step out onto many limbs. Maybe I did?

 
Unlucky said:
I'm going to bed. I'll respond later to criticism. Also, note that I really haven't looked at other's rankings/projections yet. I feel like these are kind of bland and conservative. Didn't step out onto many limbs. Maybe I did?
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Actually you seem to take a fairly strong stance on who's going to start at RB for each team (Thomas Jones, Tatum Bell, etc.)Also, your Detroit Lions WR projections are a mess after Roy Williams. Corey Bradford is expected to start but isn't even on your list. Scottie Vines may not even make the team.Stats for WR1s seem high in general, but as long as they're proportionate to each other, it evens out.Overall, good stuff.
 
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can't see Boldin and Fitz finishing with 98 and 95 catches this year, as Edge will certainly allow them to run more.

Wilford finishes ahead of M. Jones? Highly unlikely IMO.

I am high on Brooks too, but wow. Don't see that happening.

And 19 rush tds for Portis is reaching....plus the 375 yds receiving puts him ahead of LT. With that many weapons in Washington I don't see Portis getting that many receptions. But LT might see around 60 rec with Rivers at QB...imo

 
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Very interesting Unlucky, I always enjoy your projections. You must think this is the year of the juiced ball!

2005= 13 RBs with 1200+ rushing yards. You predict 19 in 2006.

2005= 9 WRs with 1200+ receiving yards. You predict 13 in 2006.

Should be a great year for FF!

 
EXCELLENT work, as usual Unlucky. I see you're as bullish on Portis as I am this year.

Your projections are always an annual read for me and many others - thanks for sharing your hard work and putting it out there for everyone to see. :thumbup:

 
UNLUCKY

Amazing job dude.

I have one request, and perhaps its just something Im missing.

Under passing and rushing, you have the yearly totals dating back to 2001. Can we get the same for rec #s?

EDIT: And by that I mean position by position. Obviously overall passing and rec numbers would be the same.

Thanks

 
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Only 49 receptions for LT?

Over 100 catches for old man Marvin?

Breakout year for Andre Johnson?

 
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Not that it has much FF impact, but you are on crack if you think JP Losman is only going to throw 40-some passes this year.

Also, what's up with Trent Green falling off the face of the earth? He goes from about a perrenial top 5 to one of the worst FF QBs in the league?

 
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Frenchy Fuqua said:
Very interesting Unlucky, I always enjoy your projections. You must think this is the year of the juiced ball!2005= 13 RBs with 1200+ rushing yards. You predict 19 in 2006.
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he's definitely not a fan of projecting a RBBCRhodes, TJones, Bell, Bush, etc.
 
Thanks Unlucky...I like some of your projections...and I think it's good to see some projections that are not simply run of the mill you can find anywhere stuff.

I am high on Aaron Brooks as well. Crummy defense but has a lot of weapons around him, somewhat similar to NO but maybe the out doors in Oakland will wake him up.

I like the Bell and Taylor projections too.

 
Disagree on many of your QB numbers, for example

Brooks at #2

Warner at #23

while their respective WR rankings are

RMoss #5

Porter MID 40s

Fitz#7

Boldin#8

makes no sense,

there are many other

scenarios that make little

sense with your ranking system.

....I do appreciate the effort. :thumbup:

 
Ron_Mexico said:
Disagree on many of your QB numbers, for exampleBrooks at #2Warner at #23while their respective WR rankings areRMoss #5Porter MID 40sFitz#7Boldin#8makes no sense,there are many otherscenarios that make littlesense with your ranking system.....I do appreciate the effort. :thumbup:
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How does that not make sense? He shows complete numbers for every team where the passing and receiving numbers match. Anomalies as you described above happen every year and they're explained to the finest detail by the projections.
 
Spartans Rule said:
Ron_Mexico said:
Disagree on many of your QB numbers, for exampleBrooks at #2Warner at #23while their respective WR rankings areRMoss #5Porter MID 40sFitz#7Boldin#8makes no sense,there are many otherscenarios that make littlesense with your ranking system.....I do appreciate the effort. :thumbup:
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How does that not make sense? He shows complete numbers for every team where the passing and receiving numbers match. Anomalies as you described above happen every year and they're explained to the finest detail by the projections.
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:goodposting: No clue what Mexico is thinking.Brooks runs, Brooks has several WRs he will throw to in UNLUCKY's projections as opposed to basically Boldin and Fitz, and he'll almost certainly throw for more TDs.
 
diesel7982 said:
Spartans Rule said:
Ron_Mexico said:
Disagree on many of your QB numbers, for exampleBrooks at #2Warner at #23while their respective WR rankings areRMoss #5Porter MID 40sFitz#7Boldin#8makes no sense,there are many otherscenarios that make littlesense with your ranking system.....I do appreciate the effort. :thumbup:
Click to expand...
How does that not make sense? He shows complete numbers for every team where the passing and receiving numbers match. Anomalies as you described above happen every year and they're explained to the finest detail by the projections.
Click to expand...
:goodposting: No clue what Mexico is thinking.Brooks runs, Brooks has several WRs he will throw to in UNLUCKY's projections as opposed to basically Boldin and Fitz, and he'll almost certainly throw for more TDs.
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I think Ron's point is partially valid. The thing he may have missed is the fact that Leinart is projected to throw for about 500 yards, and a couple TDs.The thing that is still a bit wacky is the fact that Boldin/Fitz make up for about 55-60% of the teams Receptions and Yards, but they make up for like 82% of the TDs. I would have to imagine other players will combine to catch more than 4 TDs this season.
 
I appreciate your effort and these look nice and all. But predicting an injury to Rex Grossman by the 2nd or 3rd game is pretty ballsy. And I assume you are predicting an injury to D. Foster as well or do you really believe Deangelo will get that many carries? Did you predict an injury to Volek too or do you think Young will take over that soon?

 
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