DoubleG
Footballguy
First off, there are a number of ways to do projections at the beggining of the year. This thought has slowly crept into my mind (actually the D. Moore situation has forced it to). There was a comment in the thread about said WR - something to the effect that "you don't simply figure out a % of last years passing numbers, then assign a piece of the pie to Moore - he is the type of player that makes the pie bigger."
Now, the hyperbole about Moore aside, that brings a few things into the discussion in regards to projections - specifically in regards to QBs and WRs. Some of those questions are based on how you actually do projections in the first place.
Question 1: When doing yearly projections, do you start with the QB, then assign his WRs a % of his numbers? (This is how I do it, as it seems to make the most sense) - or do you go at it from the opposite angle - do the WRs, then add them up to get a QB total?
Question 2: (And this is the one I'm curious about and the reason for the thread) When players emerge, how do you "adjust" your projections for both that player and the QB?
Question 3: As you go through the season, do you go back to annual rankings and "assign" a certain % to this particular week? In other words, if we took the time to add up everyone's weekly projections, would they come out equal too their annual projections? Do you "subtract" already played weeks? Put another way, if your QB starts off "hot", do you actually lower expectations for the rest of the season, as you presume he will end up near his projections, or do you change your projections?
Obviously, I am looking at this from a QB/WR perspective, but the same (esepcially the "adjust weekly expectation based on annual projections" aspect) could apply to RBs.
Or, do most of you "throw out" annual projections once the season starts and "roll with the flow"?
Now, the hyperbole about Moore aside, that brings a few things into the discussion in regards to projections - specifically in regards to QBs and WRs. Some of those questions are based on how you actually do projections in the first place.
Question 1: When doing yearly projections, do you start with the QB, then assign his WRs a % of his numbers? (This is how I do it, as it seems to make the most sense) - or do you go at it from the opposite angle - do the WRs, then add them up to get a QB total?
Question 2: (And this is the one I'm curious about and the reason for the thread) When players emerge, how do you "adjust" your projections for both that player and the QB?
Question 3: As you go through the season, do you go back to annual rankings and "assign" a certain % to this particular week? In other words, if we took the time to add up everyone's weekly projections, would they come out equal too their annual projections? Do you "subtract" already played weeks? Put another way, if your QB starts off "hot", do you actually lower expectations for the rest of the season, as you presume he will end up near his projections, or do you change your projections?
Obviously, I am looking at this from a QB/WR perspective, but the same (esepcially the "adjust weekly expectation based on annual projections" aspect) could apply to RBs.
Or, do most of you "throw out" annual projections once the season starts and "roll with the flow"?
