Oh, you're back. The guy who said that we should be trading Hurts this offseason lolI've been giving it some thought, and I'm really starting to think, the top 3 QBs should be ordered differently. After assessing the 2022 season as a whole as a slightly down year for QBs, it helped me realize that perhaps the dominance that Hurts/Allen/Mahomes had over the field, wasn't because they were good, it's because everyone else was... worse.
On the surface those seem like the same thing, but when it comes to analyzing data, statistically, we're trying to assess what's most likely to happen next.
So, lets just start with the 3 top QBs and challenge the order of them simply with 2022 in mind. (Yahoo scoring for this part)
Mahomes averaged 24.8 points per game, threw 5,250 yards, 41 TDs and another 4TDs on the ground. So, 5,600 total yards and 45 total TDs. To average 24.8ppg.
Allen 5000 total yards, 42 total TDs, to average 25.3ppg.
Hurts 4400 total yards, 35 total TDs, to average 25.3ppg.
If we just look at those 3 stat lines, and I asked you who has the most room to grow, or the easiest path to duplicate their '22 season fantasy stats, who would you pick?
For me... even though I think Mahomes is very likely to repeat his season year over year, if we're being realistic, the chances of 5600/45 is not very high. But, obviously we've seen him have the 50TD season, so it's not out of the realm of possibility. But keep in mind, that even in Mahomes' 5300/52 TD season... he only averaged 26.7ppg. I'm not downplaying this at all, just illustrating that the 'upside' we know Mahomes has, doesn't translate to a notable jump in fantasy production. 1.9ppg is good, but we're talking about absolute ceilings here essentially.
Allen's 5,000/42 seems well within reason, with potential to grow with Gabe healthy, Cook fully integrated, and the addition of Kincaid.
To support that, take note that since Diggs has showed up, Allen over the past 3 years has averaged 24.9, 24.2, and 25.2. His rushing help's modulate his production from year to year, whereas Mahomes has a bit more fluctuation in his production due to being reliant on his passing TD total. Over the past 5 years, Mahomes has has an every other year dip, starting in 2018 it looks like so: 26.7, 20.7, 25.0, 21.8, 24.8. Because of this, I actually think Allen offers the safest floor for year over year production between these 2, and if you were predicting which one hasn't hit their ceiling yet, it seems like Allen is a better bet.
Hurts on the other hand, obviously has the shortest track record, making him the riskiest of these 3 in my opinion. But with that risk, you get the upside, and I actually think we started seeing it last year, and perhaps many didn't notice. Let's not forget that it was AJB's first season with Hurts after being traded, it was only D.Smith's 2nd year, and now they have swapped Sanders for Swift, a premier pass catching back.
Regardless, from his '22 stats totaling only 4400 yards and 35TDs, its interesting to think about what his ceiling could be, in the event he were able to approach the 40-45TD range. These figures are slightly skewed, because Hurts missed 2 games last year, full disclosure there, but I'm really just trying to think about this from the perspective of... if I'm investing a 3rd round pick in one of these guys, not only which one is most likely to repeat, but which one is the least likely to regress, and which one has the most room to grow, to potentially rival the 28.1ppg 2018 Lamar Jackson season. I'm not predicting 1200 rushing yards for Hurts, but if Hurts can hit that 43TD mark, suddenly a guy who was already the best QB in PPG for 2022, now jumps into a tier ahead of the other 2.
I mentioned this might have happened when we weren't noticing last year, because of Hurts' missed games, it doesn't show up as clearly when stat diving, but I want you to consider this, from week 10 to week 18, Jalen Hurts was averaging 26.5PPG, a full 2.5 more than Mahomes was over the 2nd half of the season, and this also includes the game where Hurts failed to break double digits against the Giants in week 18. Because both of these QBs went to the superbowl, our data pool gets even bigger. From week 10 through the SB, Mahomes averaged 23.0ppg. Basically, Mahomes was just a machine from the start of the season to the end of the season, there appear to be no flukes, fluctuations, waves, just consistent performance every single week. From week 10 through the SB, Hurts was averaging 26.3ppg. A full 3.3ppg advantage over Mahomes. Allen from week 10, to the DP, averaged 22.5ppg for what it's worth.
When I break down the games and see how Hurts seemed to steadily progress upward as the season went on, combined with his room for growth, his upside at the QB position (among this tier) is the most appealing to me. It's easy to create a narrative that it was the development of Smith, or the chemistry with AJB. It's also easy to point to a 3 game stretch from week 13-15 where Hurts put up 34, 30, 34, and perhaps it's just coincidence. 13 rushing TDs is unlikely to repeat, but as long as they come through the air, it won't be a massive loss, but if they go to a RB on the ground (Penny) then it could be detrimental, but you're still just chasing a 17 week pace of 40TD.
For what it's worth his week 10-SB pace would extrapolate to 341/523 3804/22 + 190/980/20. 4800 total yards, 42 total TDs, 447 fantasy points. I went back to 2010 and no QB has ever scored that many points before. Lamar Jackson only played 15 games in 2019 and scored 421. Mahomes was at 427 in 2018.
I was curious if maybe splitting games was personal bias, or skewing the data, so I just went back and took the average of his entire season out of curiosity.
Week 1 through the SuperBowl. 18 games. He averaged 20/30/237/1.38 + 11/50/1 25.4ppg
17 week long season would equate to: 342/515/4032/23 + 187/855/17 for 432 fantasy points. Eclipsing both Lamar and Mahomes as listed above, the highest season I can find in my data, which goes back to 2001.
I think I'm changing my 1st tier of QBs to Hurts, Allen, Mahomes. Unless I draft Kelce, then I'm probably stacking. As always, we rank in a vacuum, but we do not draft in one.
The bigger question is... if we acknowledge that the point gap from QB1,2,3 to the field was inflated last year, and likely not indicative of what we can expect this year, how much are we over valuing the top 3 QBs at the moment, or more importantly, which of the QB in the next tier, is most likely to close that gap, for a noticeable discount. My guess is Herbert and Lamar, these would be the 2 QBs I try to target the hardest this year. Unfortunately draft position tends to dictate strategy in my opinion, due to the nature of cliffs, tiers, and dead zones. If I'm in the early-mid section of the 3rd round, I'm probably not drafting the top 3 QBs unless the WR/RB gap really hits me. However if I'm in the back half of the 3rd/4th, it's probably an easy decision. The early part of the draft has a good chance to land Herbert/Lamar at the 4/5 wrap, but I do not think the same is true for the 5/6 wrap for the people at the back half of the draft. Because of that, if I'm in spots 1-6, I'm more inclined to gamble on Herbert/Lamar falling to me in the 4/5 wrap. But if I'm in spots 7-12, I'm probably just taking one of those elite 3, and not risking missing the next tier at the 5/6 wrap.
Just my .02 and outlook on the board... as of today.
Via GoHawks:
"Allen played half the season with a partially torn UCL. It impacted his ability to throw and even altered his mechanics to an extent. You bring up what Hurts did later in the season, but Allen suffered the injury in week 9. In week 1-8 he averaged 28.1 PPG. 447-point pace is a lot. Allen was on pace for 478 points before his injury. That's just absolutely bonkers. "
LOL !!! Hurts was dominant ??? and Now he's in the Mahomes / Allen converstaion ??? WTF is going on here??
He was 10th in passing Yds and 14th in passing TDs ... WITH THE BEST ROSTER IN THE NFL!!!!!!!!!!!!
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QB Jalen Hurts, PHI (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter elguapo07
- Start date
Oh, you're back. The guy who said that we should be trading Hurts this offseason lol
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
Are we talking fantasy or real-world here?
For fantasy, to ignore Hurts rushing numbers seems ludicrous. 4th among QBs in yards, 1st in TDs. And he did that missing 2 games.
For real world, Hurts doesn't turn the ball over and was 4th in QBR and Passer Rating. That's pretty dominant.
Terpman22
Footballguy
I respect these takes. I am basically on the same page, but considering the system should be the same, the entire offense, sans the starting RG and RB are all the same. He has improved every single year since a freshman in college at getting "just a little bit better" each year. Its really really hard to for me to see him regressing this year , even if the schedule looks tougher. All training camp reports are basically saying he looks even more locked in with his guys this year, and the ball location/back shoulder throws have taken a step forward. I gotta figure he should at least have a floor of his passing metrics of last year for this year, and I'd say the rushing yards will probably be close to last year. The rushing TD's 8+ floor. Should be a nice year for him again, but I'm sure if/when he proves it again this year there will still be this silly talk of "Well if he was on X team or Y team he would suck" which is always fun.
I mean, dude clearly doesn't like Hurts, that's for sure.
I'm not anywhere near that down on Hurts, but I'm open to the possibility that last year may have been a career year, or that the NFL could figure him out a bit. So I'm not ready (NFL-wise) to say he's on the level of Mahomes or Allen, or probably even Burrow. NFL-wise, I think he's in that next tier with Herbert and Lamar, and maybe Aaron Rodgers still? He has another year like last year, or if he improves, I'll move him up, but I want to be careful overvaluing one season, both good (Hurts) and bad (Rodgers)
For sure. I don't think many Eagles fans are saying he's better than Mahomes/Allen/Burrow, but I think top 6 in the NFL is very real. For fantasy purposes, he's in the clear top 3 with Allen/Mahomes in any order you want to put it.
I don't disagree that it could have been a career year, but I feel he can keep it up or even keep up close to as good as he was last year. All I know is that there's no way I'd take Daniel Jones as my QB over him.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
@travdogg, these are fair takes on Hurts.
At the end of last season, I wasn't convinced the Eagles should have signed him to an extension and I wanted to see him do it another year. But the thing that is really making me change my opinion on Hurts is he has a Kobe Bryant-like work ethic. Everything about the guy is working on getting better. Reports from Eagles camp are that Hurts has been near flawless in his decision making and has been even better than last year. That's why I'm almost certain that last season isn't going to be some outlier season. I think the only thing that will derail Hurts is injuries.
MCFootball123
Footballguy
From a fantasy perspective the most compelling thing in my opinion is how few fantasy points he scored in the 4th quarter last year. Something like 8%? Their schedule was a joke last year. Let's say Hurts is anywhere similar to last year, just the fact there is no way they won't be in more competitive situations late in games this year. I have him as my easy number 1.
I understand the notion that one would want a player to "prove himself" more than one year. But there is so much more than just the player. When the o-line and skill positions are what they are in Philly - it's much easier for me to see a repeat or better season than a fall off.
I understand the notion that one would want a player to "prove himself" more than one year. But there is so much more than just the player. When the o-line and skill positions are what they are in Philly - it's much easier for me to see a repeat or better season than a fall off.
Can you imagine how expensive he would have been if he had a great year this year??
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
You explain it well
Offensive Line allows him to make plays even when they aren't there initially
The weapons with AJ Brown, Smith, Goedert, decent pass catching RBs and WR reserves that can make plays too.
He can pass, he can make plays with his legs when needed, no problem with anyone thinking he might finish QB1 this year despite what we know about Mahomes.
Most of us that watched him last season, don't need to see him prove himself again.
Philly is my pick to return to the Super Bowl in the NFC, some teams end up winning their 2nd time, Miami '71-'72'-73,
Igglz have the offense you need to win in today's NFL, their defense is pretty good too but might need some time to gel, the offense will score 30+ a game.
I would like to have AJB and Hurts plus one of the RBs at a discount. Not sure you can do that in the Draft the way they come off the board but it's worth trying.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
Then he'd be worth every penny.
If he regresses to the "can't read defenses" Hurts, the Eagles are done contending until they can release him in 2027.
Which scenario is more costly?
I'd say paying him 60 mil a year would be more costly. Howie manipulated the cap so well that this huge deal doesn't really hurt us at all.
And I think they've done their due diligence on him and have seen the guy every day for a few years that they're confident he won't pull a Wentz. All signs are pointing towards him continuing to improve too.
The Frankman
Footballguy
Amused to Death
Footballguy
Regressing or just not on the same page with his new OC? Yeah, he's made some poor decisions and throws but he still finished last night with a 78% completion rate and a healthy 8.4 yds/att. He just doesn't look like he's comfortable and maybe not trusting where his receivers are going to be.
They have the 11 day mini-bye this week so hopefully they can work out whatever issues they have in the passing game right now.
dschuler
Footballguy
They will probably start 6-0. But there are clear problems in the offense and has nothing to do with not being on the same page. If anything, the offense is too vanilla and the first read on plays isn’t open as often as last year. He seems very hesitant, even on runs. You mentioned his stats but that literally all came on two plays.
Outside of two plays he was 16/21 76 YDS 1 INT 4 Sacks. Not saying he’s a scrub, but he’s clearly struggling from his MVP level last year.
Amused to Death
Footballguy
I definitely agree (as will most Eagles' fans) the offense has problems. Some of it is Jalen, some of it is the new OC, some of it is the O line not pass protecting as well as they should (they do have a new RG who has not been very reliable so far, 2nd year player and future C Cam Jurgens).
Let's not cherry pick stats and say yeah but if we remove his 2 best plays....
dschuler
Footballguy
Let’s also not use a stat line to say everything is okay
Amused to Death
Footballguy
Go back and read what I said. Twice.
dschuler
Footballguy
A healthy 8.4 yds /att? All because of two plays, why bring it up?
Amused to Death
Footballguy
Yes, he's regressing.
ETA: I posted his numbers from last night because despite the issues, the yd/att and comp% are still very respectable. They are what they are. No need to take out his best plays to prove a point.
Oof, these didn't age well. (Not like they were ever good in the first place)
Terpman22
Footballguy
I haven't seen much from this guy lately, he was all over the place when Jones got that deal though.
Chaka
Footballguy
Cold dead fingers, bub.
Insein
Footballguy
I don't even have a backup on my roster. Instant reject on any Hurts offer for me right now.
Amused to Death
Footballguy
Just before kickoff, they showed the Eagles production this year vs. '22 (points/game, yds/game) and this year they were ahead in both. There's a reason the Lombardi isn't awarded in October.
Taking a lot of big hits though...never good
ProstheticRGK
Footballguy
Hopefully, with the Writer's strike over, that means the new script has been released for the rest of the season and Eagles win Super Bowl. Starting tomorrow,
RenegadeRoy
Footballguy
Big test for Hurts and the Birds coming out of the bye: @KC, BUF, SF, @DAL
I've kicked around the idea of moving him in SF leagues where I have him. Also nervous about the potential knee injury becoming a thing. But he's just so dang good, and the Brotherly Shove is like a special move.
I've kicked around the idea of moving him in SF leagues where I have him. Also nervous about the potential knee injury becoming a thing. But he's just so dang good, and the Brotherly Shove is like a special move.
Terpman22
Footballguy
I would ask for "alot" in SF if you are moving him. I've said this in the Eagles thread, but this part of the schedule, compared to what we though of it before the season, doesn't look "as tough" but yeah, still a tough stretch. KC D is no joke this year, but neither is AJ Brown. Buffalo seems to be an OK/good team and they have lost quite a few key defensive players. SF, we will see what team shows up. I know Purdy has thrown quite a few INTs as of late, and that D has been subpar for all the $$$ they got invested in it, but they will probably be very eager for revenge in that game. And we always find a way to lose in Dallas and in Seattle (not on this list, but that follows the Dallas game)
With that said, his knee bone bruise "should" be better, but I'm not super optimistic we will see the dynamic runner this year like we saw last year.
Good news is, he is really really becoming a very good/great pocket passer.
RenegadeRoy
Footballguy
Oh yeah, I've been trying to split him into two other QBs (my QB2s are... rough). Had a Hurts/Nico for Stroud/Goff/Bijan trade brewing but other manager got cold feet. Honestly, I wasn't 100% on it either.
Good news about the upcoming schedule is that those offenses are pretty good, so scoring should be up/necessary instead of PHI steamrolling teams in the first half and Hurts chilling in the second.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
Buffalo isn't good on the road.
bolldpt
Footballguy
Wow! How crazy would that be
TartanLion
Footballguy
FFS
Walked into this week with a fully healthy dynasty team.
Olave ankle
Pittman and Moss injured during game
Now this with Hurts
FFS
Walked into this week with a fully healthy dynasty team.
Olave ankle
Pittman and Moss injured during game
Now this with Hurts
FFS
