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QB Josh Allen, BUF (2 Viewers)

If Allen becomes a decent QB, it's pretty much in spite of the Bills organization. They've done just about everything wrong in his development.

-Spent by far the lowest amount in the whole league on offense line (it shows)

-Put no pass receiving talent on the team

-Put a washed up RB and a bunch of low talent veterans out there giving now run game

-Abandoned the plan to let him sit and learn just 1 half into the season because the only other QB on the roster was the worst QB statistically in the Super Bowl era

-Had exactly zero veteran QBs around for Allen to learn from

They literally did EVERYTHING wrong in his development and stacked the deck against him. I'm not sure that they could have sabotaged him more if they straight up tried.

 
not a lot of fantasy playoffs love for this guy, eh?

i'm intrigued and considering him this week.

but... the lions have allowed 62 QB rushing yards all year and they've faced jimmy g, dak, aaron rodgers, russell wilson, trubisky, cam... 

 
oswizzle said:
Starting him over A-Rod...Winston....L.Jackson

J.Allen is a stud in the making 
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Wow.

Only thing that has me worried this week is that Detroit has allowed like 56 yards rushing to QBs ALL YEAR.

Gotta have that sweet sweet rushing floor! I saw Detroit has played a bunch of mobile QBs like Cam and Rodgers, but those guys aren't rushing for 100 yards every week either.

 
Skoo said:
Wow.

Only thing that has me worried this week is that Detroit has allowed like 56 yards rushing to QBs ALL YEAR.

Gotta have that sweet sweet rushing floor! I saw Detroit has played a bunch of mobile QBs like Cam and Rodgers, but those guys aren't rushing for 100 yards every week either.
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That is the stat giving me pause also. The teams he has run on, get run on. Doesn't mean he can't do it, just not liking the odds this week enough to trust my playoff hopes on it. 

 
shadyridr said:
Between him and cousins. I might just play it safe and role with cousins due to his matchup
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I have the same dilemma.

Thing is, is Cousins really safer at this point? Allen has put up 20+ points in all 3 games since the bye, while Cousins has put up 30, 8, and 10 the last three weeks.

I know what you mean as Cousins "feels" safer, but with the rushing Allen might have the higher floor.

 
I have Wentz and Trubisky.  Was going to start Wentz but now rolling with Trubisky.  Allen is a FA and I may pick him up but I can't imagine starting him in a plafoff game.

 
ericttspikes said:
That is the stat giving me pause also. The teams he has run on, get run on. Doesn't mean he can't do it, just not liking the odds this week enough to trust my playoff hopes on it. 
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I'm not saying that stat is not a problem, but this is what the QB's did those weeks:

Det vs mobile QBs
@Dal  L24-26
Dak 17/27 255 2 TD
Elliot 155

Vs GB w31-24
Rodgers 442 3TD
Jones/Williams 5.5+/carry

@Chi L22-34
Trub 355 3Td pass
No Run gm- Trub 1 rush TD

Vs Car 20-19
Cam 357 3TD
Caf 4.0/carry

I've got an Allen or Wilson decision in these 2 FFPC championship weeks and it's killing me. Talking myself into Allen for the higher ceiling.

 
I love Mitch and Allen. I think Mitch rolls this weekend and Allen should have a decent floor. I hate Winston on the road in Baltimore though... so much so that I dropped him for bench depth.

 
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Jed said:
I'm not saying that stat is not a problem, but this is what the QB's did those weeks:

Det vs mobile QBs
@Dal  L24-26
Dak 17/27 255 2 TD
Elliot 155

Vs GB w31-24
Rodgers 442 3TD
Jones/Williams 5.5+/carry

@Chi L22-34
Trub 355 3Td pass
No Run gm- Trub 1 rush TD

Vs Car 20-19
Cam 357 3TD
Caf 4.0/carry

I've got an Allen or Wilson decision in these 2 FFPC championship weeks and it's killing me. Talking myself into Allen for the higher ceiling.
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Tip of the cap to all that have the stones to start Allen. I'm sticking with Rodgers and not all that confident about it, but tough to bench a proven commodity vs. an unknown in the playoffs. These are interesting stats, but I'm not sure Allen is there yet as a passer or the Buffalo O can duplicate some of these. Should be interesting to see. What seems to be clear is that if Allen isn't running wild, his floor is really low.

 
Faust shared this article on how the rookie QBs have progressed and it is really good.

NFL rookie QB progress reports: What 2018 picks have shown so far

...Allen is deriving a significant amount of his value from his work as a runner. It's unprecedented, actually.

...the typical quarterback generates only about 9.7 percent of his expected points added as a runner.

It's not in the same universe as Allen. With three games to go in his rookie season, he is unquestionably the most run-heavy quarterback of the past decade. Allen has generated 69.4 percent of his expected points on the ground, which is the most from a quarterback (with a minimum of 200 passes) by a considerable margin:

...To be more specific, 57.6 percent of Allen's points added have come on scrambles, which is more than 20 percentage points higher than the second-highest quarterback in recent memory, who was Colin Kaepernick during the 2016 campaign. There's virtually no way Allen can keep this up over any length of time,

As a passer, though, it's difficult to see any signs of improvement from Allen. His numbers are horrific -- he ranks last among qualifying signal-callers in passer rating (62.8) and QBR on pass attempts (26.8) -- 
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I agree with everything said in the article but it is a progress report to this date, I see Allen's development over a period of years like an old school quarterback.

I didn't anticipate the sort of off-scale running production but to develop pocket passer skills it is a long term projection.

 
Bracie Smathers said:
Faust shared this article on how the rookie QBs have progressed and it is really good.

NFL rookie QB progress reports: What 2018 picks have shown so far

I agree with everything said in the article but it is a progress report to this date, I see Allen's development over a period of years like an old school quarterback.

I didn't anticipate the sort of off-scale running production but to develop pocket passer skills it is a long term projection.
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I'm not sure that it's accurate to say that he hasn't shown any progress as a passer. While he still abandons the pocket too soon at times, he has shown more willingness to hang there at times as well. 

I also think that he has shown some improvement on going through reads as well. Some of the things he is doing demonstrates that he is reading the defense pre-snap, reading the key defender, and then delivering the ball to the correct receiver.

Another thing he's improved on since the beginning of the year is throwing with some anticipation and trusting what he sees. He was gun-shy and missing open windows early on. Since coming back from the injury, he has displayed much less hesitation in pulling the trigger.

Lastly, I thought the article was unfair to Allen. For Darnold and Rosen, it made a whole lot of excuses for them due to the lack of talent around them. That's probably fair. But Allen may have the least amount of talent around him of all of them. The O-line has been brutally bad, the running game has been non-existent, and the WRs have been lead by a fossilized Kelvin Banjamin that was beyond lazy for the first month of the season before actually trying but still managing to drop about half of the passes thrown his way, second year replacement level guy Zay Jones, undrafted FA rookie Robert Foster, and TE Charles Clay who can't catch a cold. When your receivers can't get open, drop the ball when they do actually get open, the running game averages less than 3 yards per carry, the O-line gets you hit on 35%+ of your drawbacks, and you're constantly behind the sticks because of all the penalties your guys take, it's tough to have success as a QB. 

I don't know if Josh Allen is ever going to develop into a good NFL QB or a great passer, but I think this ESPN article comes across as biased in how much it gives Darnold and Rosen passes for their poor performance while not mentioning any of the surrounding talent issues for Buffalo.

 
JFS171 said:
Debating him vs Matt Ryan, though Ryan at home has had a very solid floor
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debating him vs. deshaun watson against a higher scoring team in the semis. right now josh is in the lineup but all the experts say that's a mistake. (3 pt passing TD league. no penalties for turnovers.)

i've held josh for much of the year. but actually starting him is TOUGH!

 
Is it just me or is this guy continually being ignored by fantasy analysts?

#1 QB over the past 4 weeks, yet all I see for him is that he's a "deep streaming option".

I guess it's the running so much that messes with everyone's analysis, but it just seems like the whole fantasy community is sleeping on this guy. He's on Buffalo with no one to throw to, I guess people just can't make sense of it.

 
Skoo said:
Is it just me or is this guy continually being ignored by fantasy analysts?

#1 QB over the past 4 weeks, yet all I see for him is that he's a "deep streaming option".

I guess it's the running so much that messes with everyone's analysis, but it just seems like the whole fantasy community is sleeping on this guy. He's on Buffalo with no one to throw to, I guess people just can't make sense of it.
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Both him and Robert Foster.

Although I would be extremely hesitant to start any rookie QB against Belichick. 

 But yeah, clearly there is a built in bias that has caused the vast majority of the fantasy community to overlook Allen and Foster.

 
The fantasy community told me to bench Josh Allen and Robert Foster last week for Cam Newton and Josh Reynolds despite the fact that my eyes and gut were telling me to do the opposite.  Thankfully, I trusted what I was seeing and didn't listen to them.  Would have not made my league championship game if I did.

 
Which would have been more surprising?  Allen and Foster being shut down by Detroit, or Newton and Reynolds being shut down in their respective matchups?

With Detroit having an excellent track record of shutting down running QBs and a solid matchup CB, it soesn’t seem unreasonable to think that Newton and Reynolds getting blanked was the less likely option.  (I do think analysts are undervaluing the Saints defense, but thatks for another thread.)

We all know we, and every analyst is often wrong.  But thatks an odd one to choose to call them out on imo.

 
I benched him for cousins last week and despite the great matchup for cousins he as disappointing again. Won't make that mistake again. NE defense sucks and I expect a lot of running and garbage time. 

 
They seemed to all be getting hung up on the 'ole "shutting down running QBs" metric and thinking that's all Allen had going for him.  I knew Allen was going to have a crap game in terms of running yardage compared to recent weeks.  But I also knew he was capable of exploiting passing mismatches against them (something Trubisky did as well when he couldn't run against them) with Ansah shut down and Slay still dealing with a gimpy ankle thanks in large part to building more trust with Foster.  Wasn't expecting much more than 200-250 yards and a score.  He gave me two scores and no picks.  Felt that was an easy call over the possibility of agonizing on a Monday night matchup with a clearly ailing Cam trying to hold some kind of matchup lead.

Not feeling nearly so jolly about a road date with the Pats but given what's available on the wire in my league I may just have to stick it out.  Garbage time winfall could be huge but I'm actually worried more about the stout Bills defense not making that an option.  Having a healthy running back on the field to take the focus off Allen would probably help.

 
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Arodin said:
Which would have been more surprising?  Allen and Foster being shut down by Detroit, or Newton and Reynolds being shut down in their respective matchups?

With Detroit having an excellent track record of shutting down running QBs and a solid matchup CB, it soesn’t seem unreasonable to think that Newton and Reynolds getting blanked was the less likely option.  (I do think analysts are undervaluing the Saints defense, but thatks for another thread.)

We all know we, and every analyst is often wrong.  But thatks an odd one to choose to call them out on imo.
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Detroit had not "shut down" running QBs. Those "running QBs" have absolutely lit up Detroit with huge passing days in large part to lots of deep balls. Allen and Foster have been doing a good bit of damage with the deep ball. So assuming that Allen would be shut down was an assumption based on a bad premise.

The Saints, since Week 10, lead the league for fewest points given up.

 
Who is starting this guy in their championships? I have Goff and I am seriously considering it. Allen is QB1 in the last 4 weeks in my league. NE is a great matchup. Hard to see him completely implode after being just amazing since he's come back from injury. 

 
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Dr. Dan said:
Who is starting this guy in their championships? I have Goff and I am seriously considering it. Allen is QB1 in the last 4 weeks in my league. NE is a great matchup. Hard to see him completely implode after being just amazing since he's come back from injury. 
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🙌

I have started the following QBs this year: Derek Carr, Ryan Tannehill, Blake Bortles (a lot), Alex Smith, Marcus Mariota, Josh Allen, and I'm surely forgetting some other sucktastic QB. Allen is my savior.

 
Hankmoody said:
Championship week and I'm seriously considering him over Rodgers. 
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This is the kind of decisions I'm interested in. Not that I equate Goff = Rodgers, but Rodgers is about as plug and play as it gets. If someone is starting Allen over Rodgers (and someone who I know of to some degree from postings), then starting him over Goff is a no brainer. 

 
He handily outscored Luck this week (who would have cost me the game had I not also played vs Brees) and has a nice floor it seems. What are the chances Brees/Luck both give single digit performances in the same week while this guy outscores both? 1 in a zillion I suspect.

 
Just going to throw this out there again as a brake on the idea that starting Allen may be a no-brainer: Rookie QBs typically fare very poorly against Bill Belichick. He knows how to confuse and hurry them and they usually struggle against his defenses.

 
GroveDiesel said:
Just going to throw this out there again as a brake on the idea that starting Allen may be a no-brainer: Rookie QBs typically fare very poorly against Bill Belichick. He knows how to confuse and hurry them and they usually struggle against his defenses.
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My thoughts exactly. 

I'm back and forth again between Allen and Winston. The Patriots overall ranking against the pass is deceptive, as least in a historical context.

While Winston, on paper, looks to have the worse match up, I'm leaning towards starting him because I'm afraid that Allen brings a very low floor to this weeks match up. In the bigger picture, Allen has shown me something this year. He has made some big plays, and while still raw, has done pretty well in light of the fact his supporting cast is poor. 

 
GroveDiesel said:
Just going to throw this out there again as a brake on the idea that starting Allen may be a no-brainer: Rookie QBs typically fare very poorly against Bill Belichick. He knows how to confuse and hurry them and they usually struggle against his defenses.
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I found this article... old (from 2017). It makes the point you've made, however, when you look at it- sure, bad rookie QBs struggle vs the patriots. While good rookie QBs have done quite well (Luck, Big Ben, Wilson, Watson- see below) 

This article was discussing Watson coming to NE to face the Patriots. Watson put up 300/2/2, rushed for 40 yards, and a 90 QBR (I'd take that from Allen in a heartbeat!) 

So it stands to reason that good rookie QBs can fair well vs the Patriots. Whereas bad rookie QBs don't do well. I think that can be said about most teams, not just BB... 

 
On one hand, I'm always excited to see a Buffalo player become fantasy-relevant.  Especially when it's our rookie QB who we're hoping becomes the cornerstone of our franchise for the next decade and change.

On the other hand, I and all other Bills fans know what happens when you buy into this team at critical times.  Just saying.

 
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