Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Bruh
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QB Justin Fields, NYJ (4 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
FairWarning
Footballguy
That was the game where he regressed. Basically a product of the team just falling apart from lack of talent, injuries, and how good the Eagles were. You may be right about fantasy stats vs real performance, but that’s the case with many of these newer running qbs.
DocHolliday
Footballguy
TheDirtyWord
Footballguy
For as much as people aren’t bought into Fields as a passer…does he need to be great in this area?
Lamar Jackson (2022)
203 completions
326 attempts
2242 yards
17 TD’s
7 INT’s
Justin Fields (2022)
192 completions
318 attempts
2242 yards
17 TD’s
11 INT’s
Lamar Jackson (2022)
203 completions
326 attempts
2242 yards
17 TD’s
7 INT’s
Justin Fields (2022)
192 completions
318 attempts
2242 yards
17 TD’s
11 INT’s
DocHolliday
Footballguy
Fields is going to have a huge season. I hope the other guys in my FF league stay away from him due to his passing struggles last season. Unfortunately most of them are wise enough to see the potential too.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Hard not to when he scored ~50 3 weeks in a row. Kinda stands out a little. lol
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Fields ended the year ranked as the #7 fantasy QB based on total points and ppg last year. Hard to think that people think he will do worse with more weapons and healthier bodies.
DocHolliday
Footballguy
I won't speak for others, but in my case, I've always liked Fields a bunch, but I also think VERY highly of Bryce Young. I'd have been ok either way.
I'd mostly agree, but I think the theory would be that better weapons means less running. Like, he won't be running 15+ times if he actually has open WRs.
I don't think his fantasy production comes down, but I do think its possible it doesn't really go up, its just distributed more evenly.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Fields accounted for 25 combined TD last year. If the offense is better, maybe that gets pushed to 30. My leagues count each TD the same, so that would be a net gain. The Bears were Bottom 10 in scoring last season, and maybe they get more points on the board in general. They were Bottom 3 in offensive plays. Maybe they can pick up more first downs and extend drives. League average was 1066 plays. CHI had 993. Who knows if they can run 75 more plays, but one would think if they could, that would benefit Fields. As you mentioned, maybe he runs less, but there might be minimal impact overall.
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
Jacob Infante
@jacobinfante24
Putting it out there: Justin Fields will be the best QB in the NFC North by the end of the year.
I don’t think he’s the best right now, but he’s easily the most talented and finally has a better supporting cast around him.
Good time for him to take the next step. #Bears
smbkrypt24
Footballguy
Where do you value him in 2023 rookie picks? Where do you value him compared to veteran QBs?
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Because of his legs, outside of Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, and Hurts, I value him more than most QBs in fantasy. I probably value Lawrence more too, but it is close. I value him more than Herbert. As for the rookies, I value him more than AR, but that could change. If he was in the 2023 draft knowing what I currently know about him, I would slot him in the 1.4 and 1.8 range.
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smbkrypt24
Footballguy
Is that a wide range based on team needs or just a rough guess answer?
That seems more like you are just slightly over consensus opinion.
You basically have him as QB5 when he's going as QB8 in FFPC one QB leageus with Lawrence who you also say you are high on, Herbert and Lamar who can also run being the difference in your ranking vs current consensus. I'm sure other leagues differ but in this format the difference between QB5 and QB8 is basically a mid 4th to a mid 5th.
None of that seems to rise to level of grossly undervalued to me, but no biggie.
Personally I think he's going where he should be going in dynasty, as QB8 and I'm pretty much in agreement with him going as QB6 in redraft as well which is where he's been going in this format. I have concerns that I'm sure are echoed by others regarding his projected longevity vs some of the others.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
My best answer. Where do you think he fits in the 2023 draft?
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JohnnyU
Footballguy
When I said grossly undervalued I was mainly pointing toward public opinion, including trades, more than where he is actually going in startups. I believe what you said about perceived longevity has a lot to do with it.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I’d take it easily, but many people just keep believing QBs in 1QB leagues have no value - when my experience shows otherwise.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Just one example of a trade I offered. Of course I have Hurts, Young, AR, Lance, and Purdy, in addition to Fields. Hurts was a WW add before he was a thing. Took AR at 1.09 and Young at 2.05. Lance 1.12(2021) and Purdy $35 BB waivers.
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
It’s either stubbornness that you won’t pay for a QB and/or some one that doesn’t value Fields enough because even in 1QB leagues he can give an advantage most weeks.
Fields would do way more for his team than LaPorta and a future second.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
My example of grossly undervalued.
TheDirtyWord
Footballguy
QB's at the top of the food chain do. Much like Kelce/Edwards at TE. But once you get to QB6/7, the delta isn't worth the squeeze.
Think there is a very good argument Fields is closer to the top of the food chain than the middle of the road guys.
I'm assuming that team with Cousins and Howell just sucks, and he's playing for 2024 or later.
efactor
Footballguy
Agree. His ADP has fallen into the 5th round. I know that doesn't mean that much now but if it stays there, I'll be owning a lot of Fields
ericttspikes
Footballguy
As a Bears fan, Justin Fields ADP of QB #6 is crazy to me. Not sure I see the upside compared to last years bonkers rushing #'s and his QB 11 finish in FFPC. I mean, I suppose he could justify that, but seems like a big risk compared with guys like Burrow and Jackson going right there with him in the same round usually. Huge bet on keeping his rushing numbers and adding big passing numbers. Would love to see it as a fan, but tough for me to make that bet. Don't see that much improvement from the Bears offense in general. Floor also seems way lower than guys like Herbert or Lawrence who get drafted after him IMO. Would love to be wrong as a fan.
In most leagues Fields was QB6 last year, and that was missing 2 games, and not really being unleashed until over a month into the season. He had arguably the worst weapons in the NFL for most of last season, which are at least league average now.
QB6 feels closer to his floor than his ceiling to me. I can understand preferring Burrow's safety, or Lamar's track record, but guys like Herbert and Lawrence feel a clear level below Fields to me. If Fields keeps his rushing numbers and adds big passing numbers, he's gonna be QB1. Its unlikely, but is a reflection of what his potential ceiling is.
Why don't you see improvement from the Bears offense? They are basically better at every position group than they were a year ago, and Fields has another year in the system, a system he was clearly improving in as the season went on.
Drake Hater
Footballguy
Indeed. Early last season he couldn't make a read fast enough. At some point, the play calling became friendlier to his style and his running (and Herbert's) opened up that offense and kept defenses off kilter many times. The Bears also play some poor defenses in that division. Probably my top QB target at the moment.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Seems like it would be difficult for his rushing numbers to stay at that level if he became a better passer.
I agree, it would be difficult, but not impossible. The Bears offense could just be a lot better in general, but its not as likely the defense is. Obviously that would be a best case scenario, but not a completely unrealistic one. That's the case for Fields upside being QB1 overall.
Personally I think he's closer to QB5, and like I said can totally understand preferring Burrow and especially Lamar, but I think the dropoff is after them. I don't see anywhere near that same level of upside with Herbert or Lawrence, unless Ekeler's rushing TD's crater and become Herbert TD's, which is unlikely given Kellen Moore hasn't shied from being run 1st at the GL in his playcalling history. The chance that it does though, probably isn't a bad tiebreaker between Herbert/Lawrence. Well, that and Herbert has just been a better QB so far.
ericttspikes
Footballguy
I've only done FFPC drafts so far where his ADP is currently QB 6 and where he ranked QB 11 last year. I looked at a distance scoring league I was in last year where you get 10 pts for rushing TDs over 50 yards and he placed QB 6 there, which made sense since he had some monster runs late last year.
There are plenty of fans on sports radio here in Chicago who think Fields is a legit franchise, MVP type QB. I just need to see more before coming to that conclusion. His ADP is a top tier 2 QB now, very little value compared to last year. I just think his running upside last year was out of necessity. They didn't plan on running him that much, but realized they had to because they sucked so bad. They really had few other options of moving the ball. Lack of talent at all positions. The coaches have stated they want to change that in 23. They don't want him running for the second most yards ever by a QB. Whether they can move the ball other ways is TBD.
I do think they will be marginally improved on offense. I'm just unclear on what that means for Fields fantasy stats. Does passing more mean running less? What is the net/net of that stats wise? His fantasy upside is clearly in his running ability. I don't see the Bears being able to increase his passing stats in a significant way and still have him run for 1,000+ and 8TDs in 23.
Adding DJ Moore should help. Other guys like Foreman/Johnson help losing Monty. Tonyan might do some things as back up TE, but not exactly a huge upgrade in talent. Hopefully Mooney and Claypool can be healthier and contribute more regularly and maybe get something out of Velus Jones.
The big question I have is can the Bears run more plays this year, and how many more? They ranked 30th in plays run last year and were the top rushing team in the NFL. Can they run more plays and still be the top rushing team? I'm not sure about that. D had some additions but still projected to be bad. Not sure they can be counted on to get the ball for the offense much more than last year, but that is a possibility I suppose.
They do play in a bad division, but I feel this will still be a bad team competing for 3rd in the division. Like I said, I'm hoping to be surprised and Justin out performs his top 6 ADP to become a part of the big 3, but Field's ADP is too rich for my blood at the moment.
candian fantasy guy
Footballguy
FYI, the only reason JF is QB11 on FFPC is because they count week 18 for some ridiculous reason. He was QB 6 after week 17 and didn’t play week 18.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Well, of course, he is their only quarterback. Who else is going to throw for 4000 yards on the Bears in 2023?
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Dude. As a Bears fan you don't understand what a coup it would be. Daddy would love to see a 4000 yard passer for the Bears. And 1000 on the ground, shhhhhhhhhip.Well, of course, he is their only quarterback. Who else is going to throw for 4000 yards on the Bears in 2023?
If he gets anywhere close to 4000, it will take a career year from Moore, Kmet, and at least one more WR/RB to have gaudy stats. Hard to see it happening. But if it does then either Mooney or Claypool is a big value right now.
InDitkaWeTrust
Footballguy
Amen. If he throws for 3500, shows much improved progress and still keeps the rushing shoes on, I'll be on the moon!Dude. As a Bears fan you don't understand what a coup it would be. Daddy would love to see a 4000 yard passer for the Bears. And 1000 on the ground, shhhhhhhhhip.Well, of course, he is their only quarterback. Who else is going to throw for 4000 yards on the Bears in 2023?
If he gets anywhere close to 4000, it will take a career year from Moore, Kmet, and at least one more WR/RB to have gaudy stats. Hard to see it happening. But if it does then either Mooney or Claypool is a big value right now.
