QB Justin Herbert, LAC (3 Viewers)

[FairWarning]

if they rush him back, teams will target his ribs.

Might as well paint a bullseye on the site of the injury.

If it were hockey, would this be classified as a upper or lower body injury?

I’m sitting Herbert this week for Goff. It may be a big running day for LAC.

 

[FairWarning]

Justin Herbert (ribs) is questionable for Week 3 against the Jaguars.​

Sportsbooks opened the week with the Chargers as double-digit favorites. That number dwindled throughout the week until it cratered to -3 in favor of the Chargers on Friday. Sharp money is not buying Herbert suiting up for this game. The franchise passer is dealing with fractured rib cartilage after taking a hard hit in Week 2. If he plays, Herbert will be a risky QB1 bet. Fantasy managers should have a waiver wire option in mind for Sunday because Herbert now looks to be on the wrong side of questionable.
Sep 23, 2022, 4:57 PM ET

I don’t know if he’s going to play, but I don’t think this “Vegas” argument means much. Unless the people placing these bets are insiders who know non-public information about the severity of the injury — and if that’s what’s happening, it would be a huge scandal — then Vegas is guessing just as much as we are

Vegas doesn’t really know. That’s not to say they are not setting a line and will take Jax money all day at +3. In theory, they are gambling also. I do think there will be some late LA money as the masses come in from LA for the weekend.

The real Vegas advantage here is we are playing Jax +3-110 while the house gets LA -3+110. That vig really adds up.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Justin Herbert (ribs) is questionable for Week 3 against the Jaguars.​

Sportsbooks opened the week with the Chargers as double-digit favorites. That number dwindled throughout the week until it cratered to -3 in favor of the Chargers on Friday. Sharp money is not buying Herbert suiting up for this game. The franchise passer is dealing with fractured rib cartilage after taking a hard hit in Week 2. If he plays, Herbert will be a risky QB1 bet. Fantasy managers should have a waiver wire option in mind for Sunday because Herbert now looks to be on the wrong side of questionable.
Sep 23, 2022, 4:57 PM ET

I don’t know if he’s going to play, but I don’t think this “Vegas” argument means much. Unless the people placing these bets are insiders who know non-public information about the severity of the injury — and if that’s what’s happening, it would be a huge scandal — then Vegas is guessing just as much as we are

Vegas doesn’t really know. That’s not to say they are not setting a line and will take Jax money all day at +3. In theory, they are gambling also. I do think there will be some late LA money as the masses come in from LA for the weekend.

The real Vegas advantage here is we are playing Jax +3-110 while the house gets LA -3+110. That vig really adds up.

LAC were double digit favorites before the line moved. Someone knows something.

I know that fractured rib cartilage injuries are all about pain tolerance and risk of further injury.

I also know that it’s medically unwise to start a QB just 10 days after such an injury. Typically a 2-4 week healing, even with a flak jacket he’s at significant risk of not finishing the game, IMO.

And he looked really hurt last week.

I’m no rocket scientist, but I’m betting that’s what Vegas is basing the line movement on.

That Chase Daniels took every 1st team snap at practice while Herbert did some light throwing on the side also seems like a big clue.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Justin Herbert (ribs) is questionable for Week 3 against the Jaguars.​

Sportsbooks opened the week with the Chargers as double-digit favorites. That number dwindled throughout the week until it cratered to -3 in favor of the Chargers on Friday. Sharp money is not buying Herbert suiting up for this game. The franchise passer is dealing with fractured rib cartilage after taking a hard hit in Week 2. If he plays, Herbert will be a risky QB1 bet. Fantasy managers should have a waiver wire option in mind for Sunday because Herbert now looks to be on the wrong side of questionable.
Sep 23, 2022, 4:57 PM ET

I don’t know if he’s going to play, but I don’t think this “Vegas” argument means much. Unless the people placing these bets are insiders who know non-public information about the severity of the injury — and if that’s what’s happening, it would be a huge scandal — then Vegas is guessing just as much as we are

Vegas is guessing.

But not like we are.

Vegas is much, much, much much much better at guessing than we are.

I’d initially read 2-4 weeks for this sort of injury. One bad hit to that spot and could be significant. Seems medically irresponsible to start Herbert.

I thought it was medically irresponsible for him to finish that week 2 game.

This line moving isn’t Vegas guessing, it’s them adjusting the line based on the money coming in - the theory here is the “sharps” know something and the money was pouring in on Jax - to the point Vegas is “forced” to lower the line and get money in on both sides.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Justin Herbert (ribs) is questionable for Week 3 against the Jaguars.​

Sportsbooks opened the week with the Chargers as double-digit favorites. That number dwindled throughout the week until it cratered to -3 in favor of the Chargers on Friday. Sharp money is not buying Herbert suiting up for this game. The franchise passer is dealing with fractured rib cartilage after taking a hard hit in Week 2. If he plays, Herbert will be a risky QB1 bet. Fantasy managers should have a waiver wire option in mind for Sunday because Herbert now looks to be on the wrong side of questionable.
Sep 23, 2022, 4:57 PM ET

I don’t know if he’s going to play, but I don’t think this “Vegas” argument means much. Unless the people placing these bets are insiders who know non-public information about the severity of the injury — and if that’s what’s happening, it would be a huge scandal — then Vegas is guessing just as much as we are

Vegas is guessing.

But not like we are.

Vegas is much, much, much much much better at guessing than we are.

I’d initially read 2-4 weeks for this sort of injury. One bad hit to that spot and could be significant. Seems medically irresponsible to start Herbert.

I thought it was medically irresponsible for him to finish that week 2 game.

This line moving isn’t Vegas guessing, it’s them adjusting the line based on the money coming in - the theory here is the “sharps” know something and the money was pouring in on Jax - to the point Vegas is “forced” to lower the line and get money in on both sides.

Ok, better stated.

 

[FairWarning]

Jax is trendy also. The public usually doesn’t bet dogs much. I could never play them at 3 when there was better numbers all week.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Justin Herbert (ribs) is questionable for Week 3 against the Jaguars.​

Sportsbooks opened the week with the Chargers as double-digit favorites. That number dwindled throughout the week until it cratered to -3 in favor of the Chargers on Friday. Sharp money is not buying Herbert suiting up for this game. The franchise passer is dealing with fractured rib cartilage after taking a hard hit in Week 2. If he plays, Herbert will be a risky QB1 bet. Fantasy managers should have a waiver wire option in mind for Sunday because Herbert now looks to be on the wrong side of questionable.
Sep 23, 2022, 4:57 PM ET

I don’t know if he’s going to play, but I don’t think this “Vegas” argument means much. Unless the people placing these bets are insiders who know non-public information about the severity of the injury — and if that’s what’s happening, it would be a huge scandal — then Vegas is guessing just as much as we are

Vegas is guessing.

But not like we are.

Vegas is much, much, much much much better at guessing than we are.

I’d initially read 2-4 weeks for this sort of injury. One bad hit to that spot and could be significant. Seems medically irresponsible to start Herbert.

I thought it was medically irresponsible for him to finish that week 2 game.

Do you have a medical degree or practice in that field or are you guessing (not at the Vegas level ).

Neither. I’m saying what I know about that injury.

And I would be surprised if he 1. Plays tomorrow, or 2. If he does play that he finishes the game.

I never claimed to have any special medical knowledge or to be a medical professional. They’re just likeC my opinion, maaaan.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Jax is trendy also. The public usually doesn’t bet dogs much. I could never play them at 3 when there was better numbers all week.

I only wish I’d caught the line when it was double digits.

 

[zamboni]

if they rush him back, teams will target his ribs.

Might as well paint a bullseye on the site of the injury.

If it were hockey, would this be classified as a upper or lower body injury?

If it were hockey, it wouldn't even be an issue and would be disclosed once the season ended.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

if they rush him back, teams will target his ribs.

Might as well paint a bullseye on the site of the injury.

If it were hockey, would this be classified as a upper or lower body injury?

If it were hockey, it wouldn't even be an issue and would be disclosed once the season ended.

Eh - it’s an incredibly painful injury. Even hockey players are effected by rib injuries. Especially with the hits they take.

 

[zamboni]

if they rush him back, teams will target his ribs.

Might as well paint a bullseye on the site of the injury.

If it were hockey, would this be classified as a upper or lower body injury?

If it were hockey, it wouldn't even be an issue and would be disclosed once the season ended.

Eh - it’s an incredibly painful injury. Even hockey players are effected by rib injuries. Especially with the hits they take.

Of course they're affected, but they don't talk about it. What happens in the ribs stays in the ribs.

 

[Tau837]

Daniel Popper is the Chargers senior writer at the Athletic. From his articles the past two days:

Herbert did some light throwing Tuesday before taking Wednesday off. He threw again Thursday, participating in individual drills. Herbert said sitting out Friday’s practice was part of the treatment plan for the week.

“You want to make sure that he actually goes out there to throw to see how he feels, and then you want to get back to resting,” Staley said Friday. “So that was the thought process. Put him through individual, get him out there, throw, perform the plan, and then see where he is. We’re using today as a rest day and seeing where we go here over the weekend.”

When asked how Herbert looked throwing Thursday, Staley said: “He looked good. He’s tough. He doesn’t feel great by any means, but he was able to go out there and throw the football. And I think a lot of it was seeing his response to each throw, and then obviously after practice and this morning. So we’re just going to keep knowing more as we go.”

I think it is 50-50 heading into the weekend. The Chargers are going to give Herbert Friday and Saturday to continue to rest his fractured rib cartilage. The plan is for Herbert to work out Sunday before the game, and then the Chargers will make their decision.

Staley said Friday that Herbert “doesn’t feel great by any means.” It is going to come down to pain management and comfort for Herbert. It is also early in the season, and the Chargers do not want to risk losing Herbert for any more games than they have to at this stage. We will see how Herbert looks pregame on Sunday.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I put it at 25% chance he starts. Friday’s 1st team reps for the backup is the giveaway.

 

[smbkrypt24]

Justin Herbert (ribs) is questionable for Week 3 against the Jaguars.​

Sportsbooks opened the week with the Chargers as double-digit favorites. That number dwindled throughout the week until it cratered to -3 in favor of the Chargers on Friday. Sharp money is not buying Herbert suiting up for this game. The franchise passer is dealing with fractured rib cartilage after taking a hard hit in Week 2. If he plays, Herbert will be a risky QB1 bet. Fantasy managers should have a waiver wire option in mind for Sunday because Herbert now looks to be on the wrong side of questionable.
Sep 23, 2022, 4:57 PM ET

I don’t know if he’s going to play, but I don’t think this “Vegas” argument means much. Unless the people placing these bets are insiders who know non-public information about the severity of the injury — and if that’s what’s happening, it would be a huge scandal — then Vegas is guessing just as much as we are

Vegas is guessing.

But not like we are.

Vegas is much, much, much much much better at guessing than we are.

I’d initially read 2-4 weeks for this sort of injury. One bad hit to that spot and could be significant. Seems medically irresponsible to start Herbert.

I thought it was medically irresponsible for him to finish that week 2 game.

Do you have a medical degree or practice in that field or are you guessing (not at the Vegas level ).

Neither. I’m saying what I know about that injury.

And I would be surprised if he 1. Plays tomorrow, or 2. If he does play that he finishes the game.

I never claimed to have any special medical knowledge or to be a medical professional. They’re just likeC my opinion, maaaan.

Right it’s your opinion maaaan…but to say it’s medically irresponsible based on no medical experience or direct knowledge of the extent of the injury.
Now that sounds irresponsible to make that claim maaaan.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Justin Herbert (ribs) is questionable for Week 3 against the Jaguars.​

Sportsbooks opened the week with the Chargers as double-digit favorites. That number dwindled throughout the week until it cratered to -3 in favor of the Chargers on Friday. Sharp money is not buying Herbert suiting up for this game. The franchise passer is dealing with fractured rib cartilage after taking a hard hit in Week 2. If he plays, Herbert will be a risky QB1 bet. Fantasy managers should have a waiver wire option in mind for Sunday because Herbert now looks to be on the wrong side of questionable.
Sep 23, 2022, 4:57 PM ET

I don’t know if he’s going to play, but I don’t think this “Vegas” argument means much. Unless the people placing these bets are insiders who know non-public information about the severity of the injury — and if that’s what’s happening, it would be a huge scandal — then Vegas is guessing just as much as we are

Vegas is guessing.

But not like we are.

Vegas is much, much, much much much better at guessing than we are.

I’d initially read 2-4 weeks for this sort of injury. One bad hit to that spot and could be significant. Seems medically irresponsible to start Herbert.

I thought it was medically irresponsible for him to finish that week 2 game.

Do you have a medical degree or practice in that field or are you guessing (not at the Vegas level ).

Neither. I’m saying what I know about that injury.

And I would be surprised if he 1. Plays tomorrow, or 2. If he does play that he finishes the game.

I never claimed to have any special medical knowledge or to be a medical professional. They’re just likeC my opinion, maaaan.

Right it’s your opinion maaaan…but to say it’s medically irresponsible based on no medical experience or direct knowledge of the extent of the injury.
Now that sounds irresponsible to make that claim maaaan.

No, it’s medically irresponsible based on what I watched live. Dude could barely move, and I know enough about the injury to know it can get worse with more contact.

You don’t have to be a doctor to know that.

 

[Smack Tripper]

I own him and hope he sits, would rather he gets right

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I own him and hope he sits, would rather he gets right

If I were a Herbert shareholder I’d feel the same. As a Williams shareholder across 3 leagues I hope they rest Herbert and get him right.

While every player is 1 hit away from missing a lot of time, with Herbert is a much more specific situation.

 

[menobrown]

No, it’s medically irresponsible based on what I watched live. Dude could barely move, and I know enough about the injury to know it can get worse with more contact

I'm not so sure about this. I for sure don't think it's medically irresponsible because there is no danger associated with the injury. It's just a matter of pain management and I can guarantee you he's going to suit up with this injury and need shots to get through a game it's just a matter of if it's this week or following next few weeks.

 

[menobrown]

I own him and hope he sits, would rather he gets right

The problem with this is the season would be over by the time he totally heals up. "Get right" can be defined differently and if it's defined as totally healthy that won't be happening this season as this injury takes approximately 6 months to fully heal. So again as I said in the previous post it's just a matter of managing the pain and hoping the farther away he is from the injury he experiences less pain.

Saying all that I don't agree with your notion. Where this a soft tissue injury I would also want him to sit but this is just not that kind of injury where he needs an extra week to get over the injury and have it not re-occur or linger. He just might need an extra week or so to be able to handle the pain from this injury but that's not the same thing to me. In other words he won't be healed next week or the week after or next month, just likely experience less pain.

So personally I hope he can handle the pain and play this week but I don't think he will. I was feeling solid about him playing this week but that line movement turned me. Those sharks got ahold of some insider info and they know.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

No, it’s medically irresponsible based on what I watched live. Dude could barely move, and I know enough about the injury to know it can get worse with more contact

I'm not so sure about this. I for sure don't think it's medically irresponsible because there is no danger associated with the injury. It's just a matter of pain management and I can guarantee you he's going to suit up with this injury and need shots to get through a game it's just a matter of if it's this week or following next few weeks.

If hit again it can result in further injury. Rib yes, playing comes down to pain tolerance, but that’s after some healing time. In the immediate aftermath more hits to the same spot can absolutely cause further injury.

It seemed very short-sighted at the time to keep him out there, especially when it became obvious they weren’t going to win regardless.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Those sharks got ahold of some insider info and they know.

Daniel’s took every first team rep in practice on Friday.

Not sure how mysterious the insider info is. lol

 

[menobrown]

If hit again it can result in further injury

I think another poster did not agree with this assessment and I don't either. I think further hits can delay the process in healing but I don't think it leads to further injury.

 

[menobrown]

Those sharks got ahold of some insider info and they know.

Daniel’s took every first team rep in practice on Friday.

Not sure how mysterious the insider info is. lol

1. He'd be pretty far from the only player to not practice all week and play.

2. He was never going to practice this week when the line was 7+ , because again he's dealing with an injury were he needs a shot to handle the pain. This is not like say Kamara who practiced a little with this injury because the act of throwing the football causes pain. Herbert needs a shot just to be able to throw and they are not going to do that for practice.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

If hit again it can result in further injury

I think another poster did not agree with this assessment and I don't either. I think further hits can delay the process in healing but I don't think it leads to further injury.

What I know for sure is that additional hits prevent healing.

With this injury, while not a “broken rib”, it’s a break in the cartilage that holds the rib in place.

Healing is typically ~6 months total, but in the 1st month after the injury it’s important to protect the area.

Even with a flak jacket, it is exceedingly difficult to protect the ribs while playing football.

Again, not a doctor, but I do real stuff doctors have written about this.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Those sharks got ahold of some insider info and they know.

Daniel’s took every first team rep in practice on Friday.

Not sure how mysterious the insider info is. lol

1. He'd be pretty far from the only player to not practice all week and play.

2. He was never going to practice this week when the line was 7+ , because again he's dealing with an injury were he needs a shot to handle the pain. This is not like say Kamara who practiced a little with this injury because the act of throwing the football causes pain. Herbert needs a shot just to be able to throw and they are not going to do that for practice.

Different injuries. Kamara has bruised ribs, not fractured cartilage, according to reports.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Complete recovery from Rib Cartilage Injury is approximately six monthsbecause the cartilages are slow to heal since they receive little blood supply. It is advised that you rest properly and avoid strenuous activities to allow the body to reduce the inflammation of the cartilage and heal properly.

 

[menobrown]

Those sharks got ahold of some insider info and they know.

Daniel’s took every first team rep in practice on Friday.

Not sure how mysterious the insider info is. lol

1. He'd be pretty far from the only player to not practice all week and play.

2. He was never going to practice this week when the line was 7+ , because again he's dealing with an injury were he needs a shot to handle the pain. This is not like say Kamara who practiced a little with this injury because the act of throwing the football causes pain. Herbert needs a shot just to be able to throw and they are not going to do that for practice.

Different injuries. Kamara has bruised ribs, not fractured cartilage, according to reports.

According to the reporting of Dr. Chao it's the same injury.

 

[menobrown]

Healing is typically ~6 months total, but in the 1st month after the injury it’s important to protect the area.

Right and he's not sitting out a month less yet 6 months so this whole "I hope he does not play so he wont' make it worse" spiel makes no sense to me because he's going to play with this well before it's healed.

I'll leave this thread now with my last comment that his ability to manage the pain is the ONLY thing at play here for determining when he can suit up. There is nothing else at play here.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Here’s @Joe Bryant on the twitters;

https://twitter.com/football_guys/status/1573681615473180672?s=46&t=diVJYU2C358KgIgfGSIvpQ

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Healing is typically ~6 months total, but in the 1st month after the injury it’s important to protect the area.

Right and he's not sitting out a month less yet 6 months so this whole "I hope he does not play so he wont' make it worse" spiel makes no sense to me because he's going to play with this well before it's healed.

I'll leave this thread now with my last comment that his ability to manage the pain is the ONLY thing at play here for determining when he can suit up. There is nothing else at play here.

Except the risk of extending the duration of healing of course, which you’re disregarding for some reason.

I agree he won’t sit out for 6 months.

I don’t see why he wouldn’t miss one game to get a little healed up. Then it’d be 17 days between injury & suiting up, which would make logical sense from a risk management perspective.

Because, again, taking hits can ****** the healing process, especially early after injury.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

******

Guess this gets past the language filter now. Obviously you used it in a proper context - just caught my attention since Joe was a huge opponent of the word.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

******

Guess this gets past the language filter now. Obviously you used it in a proper context - just caught my attention since Joe was a huge opponent of the word.

Yes, I would never use it in the offensive context. Didn’t even occur to me as I was typing it, but yeah - the new filter might need some tweaking.

 

[Joe Bryant]

Here's latest from our Dr. Jene Bramel.

Practice Participation: Wed - Limited | Thurs - Limited | Fri - DNP

Herbert has a painful rib cartilage injury. He told reporters he felt good throwing during Thursday's practice and wouldn't decide on his status until before game time.

However, Herbert did not throw or practice on Friday and Chase Daniel took all the first-team reps. Brandon Staley told reporters Herbert's missed Friday workout was part of the plan. That seems unlikely. It's much more likely that Herbert's Thursday workout wasn't as reassuring as hoped.

Prior to Herbert's comments to the media on Friday, betting markets shifted aggressively toward the Jaguars. Previously a touchdown favorite, the line quickly moved four points toward the Jaguars during the Chargers' Friday practice. Both factors are worrisome indicators for Herbert's chances of playing.

A pain-killing injection between Herbert's ribs and kevlar padding may allow him enough relief to play. Herbert may choose not to have an injection -- the Chargers' team doctor is currently defending a malpractice suit after a complication with a similar injection to Tyrod Taylor in 2019.

Even with an injection, this injury will be difficult to manage throughout the game. All rotational movements will be affected and in-game aggravations are possible. Los Angeles declared starting center Corey Linsley out with a knee injury, which won't make the team any more comfortable allowing Herbert to play.

The Chargers haven't ruled Herbert out but the line movement in the betting market is a clear indication that sharp bettors believe Herbert will not play.

I'll update through the weekend.

 

[Tau837]

Here's latest from our Dr. Jene Bramel.

However, Herbert did not throw or practice on Friday and Chase Daniel took all the first-team reps. Brandon Staley told reporters Herbert's missed Friday workout was part of the plan. That seems unlikely. It's much more likely that Herbert's Thursday workout wasn't as reassuring as hoped.

Daniel Popper reported (after Friday's practice) that the plan for Herbert entering the week was to throw on Tuesday and Thursday and not throw on Wednesday and Friday. I'm sure he reported that because Staley said it, but he is the Chargers beat reporter and has plenty of connections within the organization. He is not a mouthpiece reporter for the organization.

I am also skeptical that HC Staley would outright lie about not practicing Friday being part of the plan for the week. (This would also seem to imply that others would have to lie about it if asked, like Herbert, OC Lombardi, etc.) Since Staley has arrived, the Chargers have been very conservative in handling player injuries. IMO it is much more likely the Chargers purposefully had a very cautious practice plan than that they had a different plan and Staley lied about it.

Here's latest from our Dr. Jene Bramel.

Prior to Herbert's comments to the media on Friday, betting markets shifted aggressively toward the Jaguars. Previously a touchdown favorite, the line quickly moved four points toward the Jaguars during the Chargers' Friday practice. Both factors are worrisome indicators for Herbert's chances of playing.

...

The Chargers haven't ruled Herbert out but the line movement in the betting market is a clear indication that sharp bettors believe Herbert will not play.

I think this is a misperception. Vegas lines move for two reasons. The first reason is to balance the money coming in both sides of the line. The second reason is because of new information. In this case, the only new information throughout the week was the practice reports. If Vegas moved the line significantly because Herbert didn't practice Friday, it seems to me they simply made the same assumption that most posters in this thread have made, that Herbert not practicing on Friday was not part of the plan. But be clear about it, that is an assumption. They don't know anything we do not.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

No, it’s medically irresponsible based on what I watched live. Dude could barely move, and I know enough about the injury to know it can get worse with more contact

I'm not so sure about this. I for sure don't think it's medically irresponsible because there is no danger associated with the injury. It's just a matter of pain management and I can guarantee you he's going to suit up with this injury and need shots to get through a game it's just a matter of if it's this week or following next few weeks.

Getting shots from the Chargers team doctor is medically irresponsible

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

No, it’s medically irresponsible based on what I watched live. Dude could barely move, and I know enough about the injury to know it can get worse with more contact

I'm not so sure about this. I for sure don't think it's medically irresponsible because there is no danger associated with the injury. It's just a matter of pain management and I can guarantee you he's going to suit up with this injury and need shots to get through a game it's just a matter of if it's this week or following next few weeks.

Getting shots from the Chargers team doctor is medically irresponsible

And according to Joe’s tweets, *it’s the same doctor!*

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Here's latest from our Dr. Jene Bramel.

However, Herbert did not throw or practice on Friday and Chase Daniel took all the first-team reps. Brandon Staley told reporters Herbert's missed Friday workout was part of the plan. That seems unlikely. It's much more likely that Herbert's Thursday workout wasn't as reassuring as hoped.

Daniel Popper reported (after Friday's practice) that the plan for Herbert entering the week was to throw on Tuesday and Thursday and not throw on Wednesday and Friday. I'm sure he reported that because Staley said it, but he is the Chargers beat reporter and has plenty of connections within the organization. He is not a mouthpiece reporter for the organization.

I am also skeptical that HC Staley would outright lie about not practicing Friday being part of the plan for the week. (This would also seem to imply that others would have to lie about it if asked, like Herbert, OC Lombardi, etc.) Since Staley has arrived, the Chargers have been very conservative in handling player injuries. IMO it is much more likely the Chargers purposefully had a very cautious practice plan than that they had a different plan and Staley lied about it.

Here's latest from our Dr. Jene Bramel.

Prior to Herbert's comments to the media on Friday, betting markets shifted aggressively toward the Jaguars. Previously a touchdown favorite, the line quickly moved four points toward the Jaguars during the Chargers' Friday practice. Both factors are worrisome indicators for Herbert's chances of playing.

...

The Chargers haven't ruled Herbert out but the line movement in the betting market is a clear indication that sharp bettors believe Herbert will not play.

I think this is a misperception. Vegas lines move for two reasons. The first reason is to balance the money coming in both sides of the line. The second reason is because of new information. In this case, the only new information throughout the week was the practice reports. If Vegas moved the line significantly because Herbert didn't practice Friday, it seems to me they simply made the same assumption that most posters in this thread have made, that Herbert not practicing on Friday was not part of the plan. But be clear about it, that is an assumption. They don't know anything we do not.

I don’t know if they’d outright lie, but most teams try to play it close to the vest so opponents are forced to prepare for multiple scenarios.

 

[Joe Bryant]

I think this is a misperception. Vegas lines move for two reasons. The first reason is to balance the money coming in both sides of the line. The second reason is because of new information. In this case, the only new information throughout the week was the practice reports. If Vegas moved the line significantly because Herbert didn't practice Friday, it seems to me they simply made the same assumption that most posters in this thread have made, that Herbert not practicing on Friday was not part of the plan. But be clear about it, that is an assumption. They don't know anything we do not.

Hi @Just Win Baby

When the line was Chargers - 7, what did you think the chances of Herbert playing were?
After the line moved to Chargers - 3, what do you think the chances of Herbert playing are?

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

Question for anyone whose backup option is playing in a 1:00 game (Wentz, Goff, Winston, etc). If we don’t get any additional info before the early games tomorrow, what will you do?

 

[Ghost Rider]

Vegas always knows what is going on, so I am sure the insider info is indicating that Herbert is unlikely to play, but, like was said, teams do not always like to come out and say it if they don't have to, that way their opponent isn't totally sure for whom to prepare.

 

[BladeRunner]

Question for anyone whose backup option is playing in a 1:00 game (Wentz, Goff, Winston, etc). If we don’t get any additional info before the early games tomorrow, what will you do?

I'll be going with Kirk Cousins.

 

[waiver wire]

Question for anyone whose backup option is playing in a 1:00 game (Wentz, Goff, Winston, etc). If we don’t get any additional info before the early games tomorrow, what will you do?

my choices are : herbert , Wentz , Carr
took Herbert out this afternoon and put Wentz in

 

[Tau837]

I think this is a misperception. Vegas lines move for two reasons. The first reason is to balance the money coming in both sides of the line. The second reason is because of new information. In this case, the only new information throughout the week was the practice reports. If Vegas moved the line significantly because Herbert didn't practice Friday, it seems to me they simply made the same assumption that most posters in this thread have made, that Herbert not practicing on Friday was not part of the plan. But be clear about it, that is an assumption. They don't know anything we do not.

Hi @Just Win Baby

When the line was Chargers - 7, what did you think the chances of Herbert playing were?
After the line moved to Chargers - 3, what do you think the chances of Herbert playing are?

I posted about 24 hours ago in the Chargers thread that I thought it was 95% likely he will play. That was after the line moved, and my opinion didn't change because of what happened with the line. I fully recognize I am in the minority.

I don't really see what that has to do with my post. My post is predicated on the fact that the plan all week was that Herbert was not going to practice on Friday, as has been reported. He threw on Tuesday and Thursday and reportedly exhibited no disconfort. I fully recognize throwing on Tuesday and Thursday is not the same as playing QB as it is played in a game... but the Chargers have said this was their plan, and that is consistent with how the Chargers have treated player injuries under Staley... with caution.

So if you believe this was the plan, there has been no new information. If you believe the team is misrepresenting the situation, then you might believe the fact that he didn't practice on Friday is new information. I don't believe that, because I don't believe the head coach, Herbert, and beat writers close to the team would all report it as the plan if it really wasn't.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Question for anyone whose backup option is playing in a 1:00 game (Wentz, Goff, Winston, etc). If we don’t get any additional info before the early games tomorrow, what will you do?

I’m struggling with this a little in a 16-team
SF.

I’d very much like to play Daniel if he plays. QBs rule SF, and the Chargers are loaded with playmakers.

if I go with Daniel and if Herbert starts, I’ve got Aiyuk to plug in at SF.

If I knew Daniel *wasn’t* playing before the early games, I’d probably roll with Breece Hall over Aiyuk.

So that’s my gamble. And I might wanna start Aiyuk over Hall anyway, so….

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

So if you believe this was the plan, there has been no new information.

Herbert basically declared himself a GTD, so that seems like some pretty significant new information.

 

[Schmeabs]

I think he is playing

 

[Tau837]

So if you believe this was the plan, there has been no new information.

Herbert basically declared himself a GTD, so that seems like some pretty significant new information.

New how? He was listed as questionable on Wednesday. That is not doubtful (probably won't play) or probable (probably will play). It means he is 50/50. That's what GTDs are... player warms up on gameday and is either good to go or he isn't.

I disagree there has been any significant new info.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

So if you believe this was the plan, there has been no new information.

Herbert basically declared himself a GTD, so that seems like some pretty significant new information.

New how? He was listed as questionable on Wednesday. That is not doubtful (probably won't play) or probable (probably will play). It means he is 50/50. That's what GTDs are... player warms up on gameday and is either good to go or he isn't.

I disagree there has been any significant new info.

Chronologically speaking, it’s new info.

Whether it’s significant or not is a matter of opinion. I find it significant. IMO the jig is up.

Gabriel Davis was listed as questionable right up until he was listed as out. I don’t buy into the official designations any more. They’re all full of it.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

So if you believe this was the plan, there has been no new information.

Herbert basically declared himself a GTD, so that seems like some pretty significant new information.

New how? He was listed as questionable on Wednesday. That is not doubtful (probably won't play) or probable (probably will play). It means he is 50/50. That's what GTDs are... player warms up on gameday and is either good to go or he isn't.

I disagree there has been any significant new info.

Just fyi the NFL eliminated probable as an injury designation a few years back. There is now only questionable or doubtful

 

[Joe Bryant]

I posted about 24 hours ago in the Chargers thread that I thought it was 95% likely he will play. That was after the line moved, and my opinion didn't change because of what happened with the line. I fully recognize I am in the minority.

I don't really see what that has to do with my post. My post is predicated on the fact that the plan all week was that Herbert was not going to practice on Friday, as has been reported. He threw on Tuesday and Thursday and reportedly exhibited no disconfort. I fully recognize throwing on Tuesday and Thursday is not the same as playing QB as it is played in a game... but the Chargers have said this was their plan, and that is consistent with how the Chargers have treated player injuries under Staley... with caution.

So if you believe this was the plan, there has been no new information. If you believe the team is misrepresenting the situation, then you might believe the fact that he didn't practice on Friday is new information. I don't believe that, because I don't believe the head coach, Herbert, and beat writers close to the team would all report it as the plan if it really wasn't.

Thanks. What it has to do with your post is you seem confident Herbert will play even after the news and line movement and I was trying to see more precisely how confident you were.

When you say you're 95% confident he'll start, that is super helpful to better understand your position.

If your 2 QBs were Davis Mills with a 1:00 PM start and Justin Herbert with a 4:05 start, you'd start Herbert, right?

I ask as these are the real world type questions I'm fielding.