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QB Justin Herbert, LAC (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
dont get me wrong. regular season counts more than pre season. but some players are late bloomers, so it never hurts to keep a pulse on it. because of where Chark is at, hes being drafted at the very end of drafts. so the risk of getting a guy like that is practically zero. I've noted the guy has talent but to date has never been able to put it all together (though he did have one season where he hit 1000 yards) so I think there is a chance it can happen. right now I'm not overly sure what to make of the reports because hes the best wr but Herbert isnt in camp. the situation can change a whole lot once hes throwing the balls, so I'm being patient and watching at this point. I'm not telling anyone to pick him early. Im just saying hes a guy worth watching at this point.
I trust his results in NFL games over the past few seasons more than this year's training camp reports.
greenmountaingoat
Footballguy
The Chargers should try to get Zappe for a 7th. He's not a starter but the kid has some brass ones. It's hard to not root for him after watching him leave it all out there on the field last year. He's got a level of compete that's apparent. If the OL gels and gets a little bit of a push for him up front, he'd be servicable IMO.
greenmountaingoat
Footballguy
The other thing about the article that people forgot: Herbert is awesome.
Gr00vus
Footballguy
Yeah, people express disappointment with Herbert last season. That they won any games, or had any success, was mainly attributable to him. We saw what happened to the team when he wasn't there - they were absolute garbage.
Chaka
Footballguy
Late bloomers? He's going to be collecting social security by the time he finally breaks out.dont get me wrong. regular season counts more than pre season. but some players are late bloomers, so it never hurts to keep a pulse on it. because of where Chark is at, hes being drafted at the very end of drafts. so the risk of getting a guy like that is practically zero. I've noted the guy has talent but to date has never been able to put it all together (though he did have one season where he hit 1000 yards) so I think there is a chance it can happen. right now I'm not overly sure what to make of the reports because hes the best wr but Herbert isnt in camp. the situation can change a whole lot once hes throwing the balls, so I'm being patient and watching at this point. I'm not telling anyone to pick him early. Im just saying hes a guy worth watching at this point.
I trust his results in NFL games over the past few seasons more than this year's training camp reports.
Seventh year breakout isn't something I generally consider with players.
He was decent in 2019 but not so much since. He also has trouble staying on the field, missing time in every season.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Harbaugh trades for Heineken from Atlanta
Starting to get a bad vibe about the long term success and any FF relevance for Herbert in the foreseeable future
Is Herbert in Harbaugh's long term plans? I wonder when I keep seeing things that don't really help Herbert that much.
I could see Herbert possibly in another team's uniform before he signs the next contract
Starting to get a bad vibe about the long term success and any FF relevance for Herbert in the foreseeable future
Is Herbert in Harbaugh's long term plans? I wonder when I keep seeing things that don't really help Herbert that much.
I could see Herbert possibly in another team's uniform before he signs the next contract
Chaka
Footballguy
Come on. Heinicke and Harbaugh's long, or short term plans for Herbert are separate and entirely unrelated conditions.
VikingFrog
Footballguy
I punted on QB by stacking up big RBs and WRs in auction superflex league and my QBs are Stafford and Herbert.
We recently moved to 5 pt passing tds, instead of 4, so not overly concerned about either’s legs.
Tau837
Footballguy
Come on, man. You can't be serious with this.
zamboni
Footballguy
I agree with the above that Herbert is being pretty undervalued this year, mainly on the commonly accepted narrative that Harbaugh/Roman will very rarely throw the ball.
While it’s easy to see them being one of the most run heavy teams in the league, one has to think that Harbaugh is astute enough to know that he’s not in college any more, and that it’s 2024 not 1994. Plus, can the team stay in games enough to avoid having to air it out?
While it’s easy to see them being one of the most run heavy teams in the league, one has to think that Harbaugh is astute enough to know that he’s not in college any more, and that it’s 2024 not 1994. Plus, can the team stay in games enough to avoid having to air it out?
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Chaka
Footballguy
They also don't really have a dynamic backfield committee.
TheWinz
Footballguy
NFL and FF are 2 totally different things. Just think, through Herbert's 13 weeks last year, he was QB9... right behind Sam Howell.
Tau837
Footballguy
As a Chargers fan, I am expecting the Chargers to be top 10 in the league in rush attempts and top 10-15 in defense. I expect that, in turn, to lead to Herbert attempting the fewest passes per game of his career. Not saying he will "rarely throw" but expect him to have in the area of 34 passing attempts per game.
It is also worth noting that it is a big change in targets for him this year. Players on the Chargers in 2023 but not in 2024 (including WR Allen, WR Williams, RB Ekeler, TE Everett, and TE Parham) were on the receiving end of a lot of Herbert's career production. Per PFR:
- Those players were on the receiving end of 1584 of Herbert's 2355 career targets (67%); in 2023, they accounted for 332 of 443 (75%).
- Those players were on the receiving end of 83 of Herbert's 114 career passing TDs (73%); in 2023, they accounted for 16 of 20 (80%).
If he remains healthy, I could see 4300 passing yards and 30 passing TDs. Given he is opening the season with a plantar fascia injury, I doubt he will have much rushing production, maybe 200 rushing yards and 2 TDs. In a typical scoring league, that would be about 367 points, which last season would have been QB6... but that is just 21.59 ppg, which last season would have been QB14. Basically, that is Goff's 2023 season in terms of fantasy points.
This could still make Herbert a value at his ADP, since the most recent ADP I saw for him was QB17. But not really a big value there.
Tau837
Footballguy
Well, I had a 10 team, start 2Q, PPR redraft yesterday, and I jumped on board the Herbert value train. QBs flew off the board, and I took Herbert at 4.5 as the 16th QB drafted. I was last to draft a QB, and 6 teams had 2 before I took him. I followed with Lawrence and Stafford as the 18th and 20th QBs drafted to form (hopefully) a solid committee.
Neil Beaufort Zod
Footballguy
This is maybe the only scenario where I'd feel good about Herbert.
Todem
Footballguy
I have zero concerns about this stud. Fantasy wise this may be a slight regression with stats.....real life...he will probably be right back in the top 5 in the league conversation in short order.
He finally has a legit coach. Huge upgrade. He will make his less than stellar WR corps look good because he is that talented.
Huge overractions about this guy. I am a huge fan. The Chargers can legit be a SB contender inside 2 seasons with Harbough steering the ship. Higher draft picks, a franchise QB and a HC who actually knows what they are doing is a great cocktail.
Everyone is talking about Houston.......next year people may be talking about the Chargers in due time. This is year 1 of a rebuild and they have a top 5 talent at QB.
He finally has a legit coach. Huge upgrade. He will make his less than stellar WR corps look good because he is that talented.
Huge overractions about this guy. I am a huge fan. The Chargers can legit be a SB contender inside 2 seasons with Harbough steering the ship. Higher draft picks, a franchise QB and a HC who actually knows what they are doing is a great cocktail.
Everyone is talking about Houston.......next year people may be talking about the Chargers in due time. This is year 1 of a rebuild and they have a top 5 talent at QB.
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ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
Took him late as my second QB in two leagues where I mostly punted on QB until the late rounds (my QB1s in those leagues are Trevor and Tua). The injury is obviously the biggest X factor, but I'm not worried about Harbaugh and Roman at all. Even the "run-heavy" teams in the NFL still throw plenty enough for QBs to put up top numbers. And they're both really good coaches who IMO will resuscitate the LA offense overall.
I think I've had Herbert on at least one roster every year he's been in the league, so maybe this is just my bias talking, but I think he's a mid-QB1 this year
I think I've had Herbert on at least one roster every year he's been in the league, so maybe this is just my bias talking, but I think he's a mid-QB1 this year
zamboni
Footballguy
Agree with this for the most part. I think the broad concern about the Chargers being completely run heavy has scared off a lot of drafters and made Herbert a nice value.
eighsse2
Footballguy
I mean it really should be concerning that they lost their two very good vet WR's, leaving Palmer (
), Chark (), McConkey (
but still ) and Johnston (
). Not to mention also losing possibly the most prolific pass-catching RB in the game.
Pip's Invitation
Footballguy
I was more concerned about the foot injury. And I thought there were a lot of good QB options this year who didn’t have things like foot injuries.
zamboni
Footballguy
Fair points, although with a less robust run game, one can argue that the offense will flow even more through Herbert and if he's all that, he should be able to elevate those around him.I mean it really should be concerning that they lost their two very good vet WR's, leaving Palmer (
WaltonGoggins
Footballguy
Herbert most likely to sit his replacement is.....Easton Stick? lol
Herbert (ankle) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game at Pittsburgh.
Spin: Herbert told Kris Rhim of ESPN.com on Friday that the injury he sustained during the Chargers' Week 2 win in Carolina is a high right-ankle sprain, which didn't allow him to practice until Thursday. During that session, he was spotted with a heavy tape job on his right ankle, per Rhim. Herbert also relayed Friday that it's "yet to be decided" whether he'll be able to play Sunday, so if the quarterback ultimately can't go, Easton Stick would get the call under center for Los Angeles.
Herbert (ankle) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game at Pittsburgh.
Spin: Herbert told Kris Rhim of ESPN.com on Friday that the injury he sustained during the Chargers' Week 2 win in Carolina is a high right-ankle sprain, which didn't allow him to practice until Thursday. During that session, he was spotted with a heavy tape job on his right ankle, per Rhim. Herbert also relayed Friday that it's "yet to be decided" whether he'll be able to play Sunday, so if the quarterback ultimately can't go, Easton Stick would get the call under center for Los Angeles.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Where are you seeing most likely to sit?
He’s Q. Has been saying he’s gonna start. I know he might sit, but I haven’t seen any reporting saying he’s most likely to sit.
In fact it was reported an hour ago that Herbert is pushing to play.
He also played through it after it happened.
VikingFrog
Footballguy
The guy has been a warrior in his career when it comes to playing through injury. So agree with you that I’m not sure why everyone is assuming he’s sitting.
Having said that. I’m tasked with deciding between a gimpy Herbert and Stafford without anyone to throw to. So I’m almost hopeful he sits and makes my decision easy for me.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Niners D is a little easier to pass against. So there’s that.
That said, I have no option - my Herbert share is in SF, and I have Stick. So I’ll likely roll with whomever is starting because my alternative is uh, Tyler Lockett.
Still put it at about 70% Herbert starts. Dude is tough. And he did play through it. My only concern is he gets rolled up on early and I’m stuck wishing I’d started Lockett.
Gr00vus
Footballguy
The other problem is, even if he does play, he's not going to do a whole lot.Niners D is a little easier to pass against. So there’s that.
That said, I have no option - my Herbert share is in SF, and I have Stick. So I’ll likely roll with whomever is starting because my alternative is uh, Tyler Lockett.
Still put it at about 70% Herbert starts. Dude is tough. And he did play through it. My only concern is he gets rolled up on early and I’m stuck wishing I’d started Lockett.
karl.Racki
Footballguy
TJ Watt Flu?
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Hard to say.The other problem is, even if he does play, he's not going to do a whole lot.Niners D is a little easier to pass against. So there’s that.
That said, I have no option - my Herbert share is in SF, and I have Stick. So I’ll likely roll with whomever is starting because my alternative is uh, Tyler Lockett.
Still put it at about 70% Herbert starts. Dude is tough. And he did play through it. My only concern is he gets rolled up on early and I’m stuck wishing I’d started Lockett.
Niners D is a little easier to pass against. So there’s that.
That said, I have no option - my Herbert share is in SF, and I have Stick. So I’ll likely roll with whomever is starting because my alternative is uh, Tyler Lockett.
Still put it at about 70% Herbert starts. Dude is tough. And he did play through it. My only concern is he gets rolled up on early and I’m stuck wishing I’d started Lockett.
I'd actually be surprised if he plays. It's a non division game, and it would be much worse if they throw him out there and he aggravates it. Let him rest up and see if he can play the next 2 division games vs KC and Denver.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
I think you are underestimating on how stubborn to his methodology Harbaugh is. I do believe there will be games that will require them to pass more for sure, however Jim has his brand of football and will follow that if the game allows him to do so.
zamboni
Footballguy
Fair point. At some point though, he’s going to realize that he’s playing NFL defenses again, not Northwestern’s. But we’ll see.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
I do agree he is a good enough coach to realize when they need to shift gears a bit, I just do not think we will see too many games where the goal is to come out throwing it all over the yard unless they fall behind. I do think as the offense develops they will start utilizing play-action more to keep the defense honest. If Herbert can be efficient with those shots his numbers should creep up a bit. But Jim loves controlling possession and wearing down the opposition’s defense, that is his strategy and I don’t see him breaking away from that as long as the game allows him to do so. The team will have some tougher tests in the future and it will be interesting to see how they adjust to those.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I understand the logic. But if the player wants to play and is healthy enough to play, every win matters.Niners D is a little easier to pass against. So there’s that.
That said, I have no option - my Herbert share is in SF, and I have Stick. So I’ll likely roll with whomever is starting because my alternative is uh, Tyler Lockett.
Still put it at about 70% Herbert starts. Dude is tough. And he did play through it. My only concern is he gets rolled up on early and I’m stuck wishing I’d started Lockett.
I'd actually be surprised if he plays. It's a non division game, and it would be much worse if they throw him out there and he aggravates it. Let him rest up and see if he can play the next 2 division games vs KC and Denver.
With Herbert, this is a very winnable game. Without Herbert, probably more like a coin flip. If he can go, they’ll play him.
I agree it would be better for the team to sit him for a week, but that doesn’t always factor in a weather player starts or not.
Agree with all of thisI understand the logic. But if the player wants to play and is healthy enough to play, every win matters.Niners D is a little easier to pass against. So there’s that.
That said, I have no option - my Herbert share is in SF, and I have Stick. So I’ll likely roll with whomever is starting because my alternative is uh, Tyler Lockett.
Still put it at about 70% Herbert starts. Dude is tough. And he did play through it. My only concern is he gets rolled up on early and I’m stuck wishing I’d started Lockett.
I'd actually be surprised if he plays. It's a non division game, and it would be much worse if they throw him out there and he aggravates it. Let him rest up and see if he can play the next 2 division games vs KC and Denver.
With Herbert, this is a very winnable game. Without Herbert, probably more like a coin flip. If he can go, they’ll play him.
I agree it would be better for the team to sit him for a week, but that doesn’t always factor in a weather player starts or not.
My only fear is every time Red Zone cuts to The Steelers/Chargers game it's Herbert getting sacked again...limping off the field....yelling "I'm O.K...I'm O.K..."
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Yep. Or an OL gets shoved back into him.
Do you think T.J Watt would have a football orgasm if he sees Herbert trotting out to start the game?Yep. Or an OL gets shoved back into him.
massraider
Footballguy
For sure. Herbert is gonna have big games.
But I don't wanna be counting on him. Because if the game script allows pounding the ball, they will.
And Herbert doesn't have the weapons for them to be airing it out. It's Quentin and McConkey. That's not great.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Hey! Phrasing!
VikingFrog
Footballguy
So hesitant to play him due to fear of reinjury and the Steelers pass rush. But I may have to.
