QB Justin Herbert, LAC (2 Viewers)

[Tau837]

I strongly doubt Herbert will be a top 10 fantasy QB in 2025. (Note: I'm only commenting on fantasy here... I definitely think he is a top 10 NFL QB.)

I think it’ll depend on whether they sign or draft more receiving help.

Herbert was very solid as a SF QB in FF.

I just looked at my MFL league. He was QB12 in that 16 team league, which makes him well above average QB2 in SF.

You don’t see a scenario where he could move up 2 spots in the rankings? Really?

ETA - in my more QB-heavy CBS league he was QB13, a mere 20 points off of QB10.

That’s 1 year in the new system. Seems likely he’d be better with that year under his belt, no? He also came into the season nursing a high ankle sprain IIRC.

Just remembered it was plantar fasciitis.

I didn't comment on his value as a QB2. I'm sure he is a good to great QB2. My assertion was that he isn't going to be a top 10 QB.

Do I see a scenario where he *could* be a top 10 QB? Sure, I can see a scenario. I just think it is a very unlikely scenario.

Will he be better with a year under Roman? (And with better IOL and better targets?) Sure, I expect so. But will the running game be better? I expect so. Does that mean more rushing attempts? I think that is probably the case.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I strongly doubt Herbert will be a top 10 fantasy QB in 2025. (Note: I'm only commenting on fantasy here... I definitely think he is a top 10 NFL QB.)

I think it’ll depend on whether they sign or draft more receiving help.

Herbert was very solid as a SF QB in FF.

I just looked at my MFL league. He was QB12 in that 16 team league, which makes him well above average QB2 in SF.

You don’t see a scenario where he could move up 2 spots in the rankings? Really?

ETA - in my more QB-heavy CBS league he was QB13, a mere 20 points off of QB10.

That’s 1 year in the new system. Seems likely he’d be better with that year under his belt, no? He also came into the season nursing a high ankle sprain IIRC.

Just remembered it was plantar fasciitis.

I didn't comment on his value as a QB2. I'm sure he is a good to great QB2. My assertion was that he isn't going to be a top 10 QB.

Do I see a scenario where he *could* be a top 10 QB? Sure, I can see a scenario. I just think it is a very unlikely scenario.

Will he be better with a year under Roman? (And with better IOL and better targets?) Sure, I expect so. But will the running game be better? I expect so. Does that mean more rushing attempts? I think that is probably the case.

Right but he WAS the QB12

You said you “strongly doubt” he’ll be a top 10 QB.

The idea that he couldn’t possible score ~30 more points strikes me as a little silly, all due respect.

I don’t know why anyone would strongly doubt that considering this was his 1st year in that system and he was *already* the QB12.

That’s irrespective of whether it’s 1 QB or SF. Top 10 seems pretty realistic given his age, ability & circumstance.

 

[Tau837]

I strongly doubt Herbert will be a top 10 fantasy QB in 2025. (Note: I'm only commenting on fantasy here... I definitely think he is a top 10 NFL QB.)

I think it’ll depend on whether they sign or draft more receiving help.

Herbert was very solid as a SF QB in FF.

I just looked at my MFL league. He was QB12 in that 16 team league, which makes him well above average QB2 in SF.

You don’t see a scenario where he could move up 2 spots in the rankings? Really?

ETA - in my more QB-heavy CBS league he was QB13, a mere 20 points off of QB10.

That’s 1 year in the new system. Seems likely he’d be better with that year under his belt, no? He also came into the season nursing a high ankle sprain IIRC.

Just remembered it was plantar fasciitis.

I didn't comment on his value as a QB2. I'm sure he is a good to great QB2. My assertion was that he isn't going to be a top 10 QB.

Do I see a scenario where he *could* be a top 10 QB? Sure, I can see a scenario. I just think it is a very unlikely scenario.

Will he be better with a year under Roman? (And with better IOL and better targets?) Sure, I expect so. But will the running game be better? I expect so. Does that mean more rushing attempts? I think that is probably the case.

Right but he WAS the QB12

You said you “strongly doubt” he’ll be a top 10 QB.

The idea that he couldn’t possible score ~30 more points strikes me as a little silly, all due respect.

I don’t know why anyone would strongly doubt that considering this was his 1st year in that system and he was *already* the QB12.

That’s irrespective of whether it’s 1 QB or SF. Top 10 seems pretty realistic given his age, ability & circumstance.

Well, you also thought I was silly to say the Chargers would have a much better defense and would be in the top half of the league in rushing attempts in 2024. You thought I was silly to predict that Herbert would have a career low in passing attempts per game, and that in turn would affect his fantasy performance. Yet all of those things happened,.

Also, he wasn't QB12 universally. As I previously posted, in a fairly standard scoring league of mine, he was QB14 in total points and QB16 in ppg, ignoring QBs who played only a single game. For QBs who play most of the games, PPG is much more important IMO. It may be true depending upon the scoring system that there wasn't a big gap this year between Herbert and QB10, yet that gap existed.

I stand by what I wrote, then and now.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I strongly doubt Herbert will be a top 10 fantasy QB in 2025. (Note: I'm only commenting on fantasy here... I definitely think he is a top 10 NFL QB.)

I think it’ll depend on whether they sign or draft more receiving help.

Herbert was very solid as a SF QB in FF.

I just looked at my MFL league. He was QB12 in that 16 team league, which makes him well above average QB2 in SF.

You don’t see a scenario where he could move up 2 spots in the rankings? Really?

ETA - in my more QB-heavy CBS league he was QB13, a mere 20 points off of QB10.

That’s 1 year in the new system. Seems likely he’d be better with that year under his belt, no? He also came into the season nursing a high ankle sprain IIRC.

Just remembered it was plantar fasciitis.

I didn't comment on his value as a QB2. I'm sure he is a good to great QB2. My assertion was that he isn't going to be a top 10 QB.

Do I see a scenario where he *could* be a top 10 QB? Sure, I can see a scenario. I just think it is a very unlikely scenario.

Will he be better with a year under Roman? (And with better IOL and better targets?) Sure, I expect so. But will the running game be better? I expect so. Does that mean more rushing attempts? I think that is probably the case.

Right but he WAS the QB12

You said you “strongly doubt” he’ll be a top 10 QB.

The idea that he couldn’t possible score ~30 more points strikes me as a little silly, all due respect.

I don’t know why anyone would strongly doubt that considering this was his 1st year in that system and he was *already* the QB12.

That’s irrespective of whether it’s 1 QB or SF. Top 10 seems pretty realistic given his age, ability & circumstance.

Well, you also thought I was silly to say the Chargers would have a much better defense and would be in the top half of the league in rushing attempts in 2024. You thought I was silly to predict that Herbert would have a career low in passing attempts per game, and that in turn would affect his fantasy performance. Yet all of those things happened,.

Also, he wasn't QB12 universally. As I previously posted, in a fairly standard scoring league of mine, he was QB14 in total points and QB16 in ppg, ignoring QBs who played only a single game. For QBs who play most of the games, PPG is much more important IMO. It may be true depending upon the scoring system that there wasn't a big gap this year between Herbert and QB10, yet that gap existed.

I stand by what I wrote, then and now.

Fair.

I guess I don’t see a huge challenge with Herbert scoring 30-50 more points. There were times he didn’t have his TE1, or multiple WRs available to him, and as good as McConkey was, he’s not a prototypical WR1.

QB had a lot of bad drops early & I do expect them to add depth in the draft or FA.

I looked at 3 of my other leagues. He ranged from QB 12-to-QB14. The gap was about ~50 points.

I could pretty easily see him moving up the QB ranks in 2025.

As for the defense, as a Henley shareholder I was thrilled to see them improve. Cap tip for sure - you nailed that one.

But it sure seems like Herbert finished quite a bit higher than you & others believed he would.

I suppose time will tell if Herbert can score just a little more in 2025 or not. I don’t think it’s a huge reach to believe he can.

 

[Gr00vus]

It seems like Harbaugh and Roman want to make Herbert into a modern day Aikman. He could carry a team if he had to, but they'd prefer that he didn't have to, and don't want to run the team or the offense that way. Dominate the lines of scrimmage, chew up lots of clock on offense, balance the run and the pass. IIRC Aikman was a borderline QB1 for FF purposes most years.

 

[zamboni]

It seems like Harbaugh and Roman want to make Herbert into a modern day Aikman. He could carry a team if he had to, but they'd prefer that he didn't have to, and don't want to run the team or the offense that way. Dominate the lines of scrimmage, chew up lots of clock on offense, balance the run and the pass. IIRC Aikman was a borderline QB1 for FF purposes most years.

This is my concern as well as a Herbert keeper league owner. That they continue to play on the slow side and have a truly balanced offense. Great for real life games but not as great for fantasy.

All that said, the offense did prove to be more pass happy than expected, so maybe Harbaugh and Roman aren’t as set in their ways as we thought - and want Herbert to be the true emgine.

What will be interesting in the offseason is who the RB will be next year with Dobbins as a FA. If Dobbins returns as the primary guy with no upstart drafted rookie, I’m all in the passing game because I don’t see Dobbins driving the offense. If they do get a good rookie/FA that can carry the load, I’d be a bit more concerned about pass volume/TDs.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

All that said, the offense did prove to be more pass happy than expected, so maybe Harbaugh and Roman aren’t as set in their ways as we thought - and want Herbert to be the true emgine.

I think they were more efficient than they were pass happy.

They took more deep shots off of PA as well - and that made for some quality FF starts.

I see no reason why Herbert can’t be better in 2025 with another year in the system and (hopefully) more, and better developed weapons.

For much of the year he was either playing hurt, missing his TE, or down a receiver (or in QJs case, burdened by drops).

While he may lack the ceiling of some of the elite FF QBs, his floor is relatively consistent & safe. From week 6 on (after he healed up & the BYE) in the league I have him, he went:
18.8
19.6
31.6
26.9
25.2
32.3
20.6
12.4
18.6
18.75
29.6
33.8
Week 18 DNP

5-10% improvement in 2025 would make him a top 8-10 FF QB.

I don’t see that as an unrealistic projection.

 

[Tau837]

the offense did prove to be more pass happy than expected

How so? The offense ranked #28 in pass attempts.

 

[zamboni]

the offense did prove to be more pass happy than expected

How so? The offense ranked #28 in pass attempts.

Fair - in % terms, they actually had the 24th highest pass/run ratio (through week 17):

NFL Run/Pass Ratios - 2024

Run/Pass ratios for the 2024 NFL season.

fftoday.com

Heading into the season, seemed like the general consensus would be a much higher run/pass ratio - their measure really wasn’t out of whack with other more seemingly pass friendly offenses.

I think the relative low number of pass attempts points to a slower pace, which is indeed a fantasy issue.

 

[zamboni]

I think the relative low number of pass attempts points to a slower pace, which is indeed a fantasy issue.

Just to add some more data to it, the Chargers were indeed down towards the bottom regarding plays per game - and 6 fewer per game compared to 2023:

NFL Football Stats - NFL Team Plays per Game | TeamRankings.com

NFL Football plays per game, by team.

www.teamrankings.com

 

[Tau837]

I think the relative low number of pass attempts points to a slower pace, which is indeed a fantasy issue.

Just to add some more data to it, the Chargers were indeed down towards the bottom regarding plays per game - and 6 fewer per game compared to 2023:

NFL Football Stats - NFL Team Plays per Game | TeamRankings.com

NFL Football plays per game, by team.

www.teamrankings.com

I pointed out this tendency earlier in the thread:

When Harbaugh and Roman were in SF, they finished #24, #30, #31, and #20 in number of offensive plays. Granted, that was with Smith/Kaepernick, not Herbert.

As for run/pass ratios, the Chargers called passing plays on 57.7% of their offensive plays, which ranked #23. (Called passing plays include passing attempts, sacks, and scrambles, which are distinct from called QB runs.) I would not take encouragement from the fact they ranked #23, since the league has fairly recently had a number of teams go run heavy -- PHI, GB, BAL, DET, PIT, IND, ATL, BUF, LAR are the teams that had a lower percentage of passing plays.

Bottom line, the Chargers offense in 2024 was predictable before the season. And IMO right now there is little reason to expect it to change much going forward barring unexpected situations (e.g., multiple RB injuries, defense falls apart).

 

[zamboni]

PHI, GB, BAL, DET, PIT, IND, ATL, BUF, LAR are the teams that had a lower percentage of passing plays.

Yup - and all those QBs struggled fantasy wise other than PHI, DET, and BUF. Hurts and Allen obviously due to their own rushing prowess and Goff due to a fast paced offense and high-end efficiency.

 

[zamboni]

Feel bad for the guy. He definitely played terribly - worst time to have by far his worst game of the season - and he’s going to have to face a ton of criticism for the next 8 months. Certainly wasn’t all his fault though, with him being under duress all night, receivers dropping balls, only Ladd getting separation, and suspect conservative playcalling.

Hopefully he’ll use this as motivation for next year, they’ll upgrade his weapons and the OL, and he’ll come out firing next year.

 

[joey]

Feel bad for the guy. He definitely played terribly - worst time to have by far his worst game of the season - and he’s going to have to face a ton of criticism for the next 8 months. Certainly wasn’t all his fault though, with him being under duress all night, receivers dropping balls, only Ladd getting separation, and suspect conservative playcalling.

Hopefully he’ll use this as motivation for next year, they’ll upgrade his weapons and the OL, and he’ll come out firing next year.

I watched it on fast forward mostly on my DVR and, yeah, Herbert seemed under pressure so often. And at least one of the INTs was a tip that I’d put on the receiver.

 

[Faust]

Herbert (4 INTs) critical of play as Chargers' season ends

 

[Ghost Rider]

Feel bad for the guy. He definitely played terribly - worst time to have by far his worst game of the season - and he’s going to have to face a ton of criticism for the next 8 months. Certainly wasn’t all his fault though, with him being under duress all night, receivers dropping balls, only Ladd getting separation, and suspect conservative playcalling.

Hopefully he’ll use this as motivation for next year, they’ll upgrade his weapons and the OL, and he’ll come out firing next year.

I watched it on fast forward mostly on my DVR and, yeah, Herbert seemed under pressure so often. And at least one of the INTs was a tip that I’d put on the receiver.

Plenty of blame to go around, but some of those INTs were not good. The first, when they had a 6-0 lead and had just gotten a turnover in Houston territory, was horrific. He just launched it into double coverage, and right at a time where they had a chance to take control of the game. Some drops and poor o-line play doomed them as well, but his decision making is just questionable far too often.

 

[King of the Jungle]

Feel bad for the guy. He definitely played terribly - worst time to have by far his worst game of the season - and he’s going to have to face a ton of criticism for the next 8 months. Certainly wasn’t all his fault though, with him being under duress all night, receivers dropping balls, only Ladd getting separation, and suspect conservative playcalling.

Hopefully he’ll use this as motivation for next year, they’ll upgrade his weapons and the OL, and he’ll come out firing next year.

Agree to a tee. As a big fan of his it was a tough watch as you know he wanted it badly. I was surprised he didn’t take off more with the pressure that he was under and the lack of weapons stood out. When they settled for FGs in the beginning and didn’t capitalize on the early turnover I had a feeling they were in trouble. He played poorly and will have to live with it until next year. The monkey gets bigger and like you said, hopefully he uses it as motivation.

 

[zamboni]

Feel bad for the guy. He definitely played terribly - worst time to have by far his worst game of the season - and he’s going to have to face a ton of criticism for the next 8 months. Certainly wasn’t all his fault though, with him being under duress all night, receivers dropping balls, only Ladd getting separation, and suspect conservative playcalling.

Hopefully he’ll use this as motivation for next year, they’ll upgrade his weapons and the OL, and he’ll come out firing next year.

Agree to a tee. As a big fan of his it was a tough watch as you know he wanted it badly. I was surprised he didn’t take off more with the pressure that he was under and the lack of weapons stood out. When they settled for FGs in the beginning and didn’t capitalize on the early turnover I had a feeling they were in trouble. He played poorly and will have to live with it until next year. The monkey gets bigger and like you said, hopefully he uses it as motivation.

Also agree on the bolded - not sure why he didn't use his legs more - he's obviously not Lamar but he has that skillset. Maybe his lingering injuries this year prevented him from taking off - not sure.

Also agree that the first INT was a killer and I'm sure he would love to have that back after they were up 6-0 and had a chance to take over the game.

 

[Tau837]

his decision making is just questionable far too often

I have to disagree with this, at least insofar as you seem to write this to characterize how he typically plays, not just how he played in this one game.

Yes, in this one game some of his decisions were poor... although PFF only showed him with 3 turnover worthy plays on 32 attempts... not great but at least a little unlucky that all 3 of them were turnovers. This was arguably the worst game of his career, so it was not typical of his play. He played with one of worst interior OLs and one of the worst groups of passing targets in the NFL this season, and it showed big time yesterday.

I expect another offseason to recover from the mess inherited by Hortiz and Harbaugh will enable the Chargers to add a legit TE1, a better RB, another WR1/2 caliber WR, and an improved IOL, through either an upgrade at C or at RG, or both. I expect that will help Herbert to be much better in 2025, assuming he and the other key offensive players can stay healthy.

 

[Tau837]

Feel bad for the guy. He definitely played terribly - worst time to have by far his worst game of the season - and he’s going to have to face a ton of criticism for the next 8 months. Certainly wasn’t all his fault though, with him being under duress all night, receivers dropping balls, only Ladd getting separation, and suspect conservative playcalling.

Hopefully he’ll use this as motivation for next year, they’ll upgrade his weapons and the OL, and he’ll come out firing next year.

Agree to a tee. As a big fan of his it was a tough watch as you know he wanted it badly. I was surprised he didn’t take off more with the pressure that he was under and the lack of weapons stood out. When they settled for FGs in the beginning and didn’t capitalize on the early turnover I had a feeling they were in trouble. He played poorly and will have to live with it until next year. The monkey gets bigger and like you said, hopefully he uses it as motivation.

Also agree on the bolded - not sure why he didn't use his legs more - he's obviously not Lamar but he has that skillset. Maybe his lingering injuries this year prevented him from taking off - not sure.

Also agree that the first INT was a killer and I'm sure he would love to have that back after they were up 6-0 and had a chance to take over the game.

I haven't rewatched the game, but I have heard it stated on a Chargers podcast today that Houston did a very good job of maintaining discipline in their interior defensive line and not allowing holes for Herbert to scramble up the middle. He is not one who typically tries to scramble to the outside, and that is generally where the pressure was coming from, so not sure how easy that would have been anyway.

 

[Faust]

Jim Harbaugh says Chargers let down Justin Herbert in playoffs

 

[zamboni]

We should all be lucky to have someone in our lives love us like Harbaugh loves Herbert.

 

[scothawk]

They need Keenan Allen back

 

[zamboni]

They need Keenan Allen back

Not the 2025 version - besides, looks like they have a new Mr. Dependability in Ladd.

 

[steelcityman]

Can LAC spend up for Higgins? Get in a bidding war with 3-4 teams?

 

[menobrown]

Can LAC spend up for Higgins? Get in a bidding war with 3-4 teams?

They have the 4 or 5th most projected cap space so yes but does not strike me as Harbaughs' MO to get into a bidding war for a WR.

Not sure this can happen in FA, but what a Harbaugh/Roman offense really needs to unlock IMO is a big time pass catching TE. Not a hybrid type TE, a legit two way pass catching type. I'd be very interested to see if the Baltimore to LA pipeline combined with both Andrews and Likely entering last year of their deals might lead to a trade between the two teams?

Expect to see a ton of mock drafts putting Colston Loveland on the Chargers.

 

[King of the Jungle]

Herbert had a great season, a real bummer to see it end the way it did. Detractors will hold it over him until he gets over the hump. I think he will make people forget about his 0-2 playoff record soon enough.

 

[travdogg]

They need Keenan Allen back

Not the 2025 version - besides, looks like they have a new Mr. Dependability in Ladd.

No reason they couldn't have both. Neither are limited to being slot players. If Allen is cheap its probably a solid enough fit. I think that's a better (bang for your buck wise anyway) than signing Tee Higgins.

 

[zamboni]

They need Keenan Allen back

Not the 2025 version - besides, looks like they have a new Mr. Dependability in Ladd.

No reason they couldn't have both. Neither are limited to being slot players. If Allen is cheap its probably a solid enough fit. I think that's a better (bang for your buck wise anyway) than signing Tee Higgins.

I think Godwin would be a better FA pickup, even if more expensive than Allen (but cheaper than Higgins).

 

[Ray_T]

All that said, the offense did prove to be more pass happy than expected, so maybe Harbaugh and Roman aren’t as set in their ways as we thought - and want Herbert to be the true emgine.

I think they were more efficient than they were pass happy.

They took more deep shots off of PA as well - and that made for some quality FF starts.

I see no reason why Herbert can’t be better in 2025 with another year in the system and (hopefully) more, and better developed weapons.

For much of the year he was either playing hurt, missing his TE, or down a receiver (or in QJs case, burdened by drops).

While he may lack the ceiling of some of the elite FF QBs, his floor is relatively consistent & safe. From week 6 on (after he healed up & the BYE) in the league I have him, he went:
18.8
19.6
31.6
26.9
25.2
32.3
20.6
12.4
18.6
18.75
29.6
33.8
Week 18 DNP

5-10% improvement in 2025 would make him a top 8-10 FF QB.

I don’t see that as an unrealistic projection.

in a 2 QB or superflex league, hes excellent to have as your second QB. QB1 upside and a good floor level.

in a 1 QB league, hes borderline. talent is still there, but the gameplan of the team will not revolve around him lighting it up offensively with his arm. You will get a few games where it will happen, but its not gonna be the primary way they attack other teams.

I do think that if they add a talented player at WR he could be a consistent QB1 producer. but I think it is more likely they bring in another beast on the O line or D line with their first round pick and then draft a WR in round 2 who will likely take a year or two to develop to a point where hes impactful.

but I like the long term direction of this offense.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

in a 2 QB or superflex league, hes excellent to have as your second QB. QB1 upside and a good floor level.

in a 1 QB league, hes borderline. talent is still there, but the gameplan of the team will not revolve around him lighting it up offensively with his arm. You will get a few games where it will happen, but its not gonna be the primary way they attack other teams.

I do think that if they add a talented player at WR he could be a consistent QB1 producer. but I think it is more likely they bring in another beast on the O line or D line with their first round pick and then draft a WR in round 2 who will likely take a year or two to develop to a point where hes impactful.

but I like the long term direction of this offense.

No argument with any of this.

If I miss on the top 10 QB in redraft and go with a matchup-based QBBC, I could definitely see grabbing Herbert late & hoping for incremental improvement. His coaching situation should keep his ADP fairly depressed regardless of whether they make a splash in FA at WR.

And ya never know - he could have some sneaky upside. But definitely a much better QB2 in SF than QB1 in 1 QB. No question.

 

[TheWinz]

For all QB's with at least 50% of his team's starts...
2024 - QB13 PPG
2023 - QB11 PPG
2022 - QB14 PPG
2021 - QB3 PPG
2020 - QB8 PPG

Herbert has been a GREAT FF QB in 1 season, that's it. For some reason, I think people have this idea of him as a better fantasy option than he really is. Then again, here are Tom Brady's first 5 seasons as starter:
2001 - QB23
2002 - QB10
2003 - QB11
2004 - QB15
2005 - QB4

 

[steelcityman]

Can LAC spend up for Higgins? Get in a bidding war with 3-4 teams?

They have the 4 or 5th most projected cap space so yes but does not strike me as Harbaughs' MO to get into a bidding war for a WR.

Not sure this can happen in FA, but what a Harbaugh/Roman offense really needs to unlock IMO is a big time pass catching TE. Not a hybrid type TE, a legit two way pass catching type. I'd be very interested to see if the Baltimore to LA pipeline combined with both Andrews and Likely entering last year of their deals might lead to a trade between the two teams?

Expect to see a ton of mock drafts putting Colston Loveland on the Chargers.

A big time TE would certainly help, and McConkey looks very capable, didnt know he could run that fast until he housed that long one last week. There are 3-4 TEs in this draft that could help them opening week next year. I have my eye on the TE from Texas, Helm.

 

[Tau837]

For all QB's with at least 50% of his team's starts...
2024 - QB13 PPG
2023 - QB11 PPG
2022 - QB14 PPG
2021 - QB3 PPG
2020 - QB8 PPG

One way to look at this:

• 2020 - Great performance, especially given he was a rookie unexpectedly thrust into the starting role when Tyrod's lung was punctured just before game 2
• 2021 - Great performance
• 2022 - Fractured rib cartilage late in game 2 and was clearly affected for several weeks; in ppg, he was QB7 in first 2 games and QB12 in the final 8 weeks, excluding Howell, who played just 1 game
• 2023 - Fractured index finger on his throwing hand in week 14; in weeks 1-13, he was healthy and was QB9 in ppg
• 2024 - Was affected by multiple foot/ankle injuries, but had a poor fantasy performance for the season that isn't reasonable to attribute to those injuries

Looking at 2022 and 2023 this way shows that Herbert was a very good fantasy QB when healthy in 2020-2023. That makes 2024 look like an anomaly. But will 2025 be more similar to 2020-2023 or 2024?

I would rank the contributing factors in this order, most negative impact to least:

• The biggest problem was OC Roman, and he will be back in 2025. Not only that, Harbaugh has said all coaches, and thus all offensive coaches, will be back. That is unfortunate for Herbert's fantasy prospects, although there is some benefit in not having to learn a new offense for just the second time in Herbert's career.
• The next biggest problem was the passing game targets. Even with McConkey having a stellar rookie season, the Chargers' group of targets was quite possibly the worst in the league. I expect this will be addressed by adding at least one stronger WR to fit into their top 3 WRs and a much stronger TE1, likely a rookie. If true, this will be positive for Herbert.
• The next biggest problem was the interior OL. Their poor performance contributed to the running game being ineffective and also allowed too much interior pressure on Herbert. I expect this will be addressed by adding at least one new starter, hopefully two. If true, this will be positive for Herbert.
• The least important but still impactful problem was that the Chargers RB group was weak and could not stay healthy. For a team that wants to run as much as Harbaugh does, that hurts. I expect they will have some sort of upgrade in this group, which could help Herbert, depending on whether they go hunting in the bargain bin or use more substantial resources here.

I expect the net outcome will be better fantasy performance for Herbert in 2025, but still not a top 10 fantasy QB.

 

[Ray_T]

For all QB's with at least 50% of his team's starts...
2024 - QB13 PPG
2023 - QB11 PPG
2022 - QB14 PPG
2021 - QB3 PPG
2020 - QB8 PPG

One way to look at this:

• 2020 - Great performance, especially given he was a rookie unexpectedly thrust into the starting role when Tyrod's lung was punctured just before game 2
• 2021 - Great performance
• 2022 - Fractured rib cartilage late in game 2 and was clearly affected for several weeks; in ppg, he was QB7 in first 2 games and QB12 in the final 8 weeks, excluding Howell, who played just 1 game
• 2023 - Fractured index finger on his throwing hand in week 14; in weeks 1-13, he was healthy and was QB9 in ppg
• 2024 - Was affected by multiple foot/ankle injuries, but had a poor fantasy performance for the season that isn't reasonable to attribute to those injuries

Looking at 2022 and 2023 this way shows that Herbert was a very good fantasy QB when healthy in 2020-2023. That makes 2024 look like an anomaly. But will 2025 be more similar to 2020-2023 or 2024?

I would rank the contributing factors in this order, most negative impact to least:

• The biggest problem was OC Roman, and he will be back in 2025. Not only that, Harbaugh has said all coaches, and thus all offensive coaches, will be back. That is unfortunate for Herbert's fantasy prospects, although there is some benefit in not having to learn a new offense for just the second time in Herbert's career.
• The next biggest problem was the passing game targets. Even with McConkey having a stellar rookie season, the Chargers' group of targets was quite possibly the worst in the league. I expect this will be addressed by adding at least one stronger WR to fit into their top 3 WRs and a much stronger TE1, likely a rookie. If true, this will be positive for Herbert.
• The next biggest problem was the interior OL. Their poor performance contributed to the running game being ineffective and also allowed too much interior pressure on Herbert. I expect this will be addressed by adding at least one new starter, hopefully two. If true, this will be positive for Herbert.
• The least important but still impactful problem was that the Chargers RB group was weak and could not stay healthy. For a team that wants to run as much as Harbaugh does, that hurts. I expect they will have some sort of upgrade in this group, which could help Herbert, depending on whether they go hunting in the bargain bin or use more substantial resources here.

I expect the net outcome will be better fantasy performance for Herbert in 2025, but still not a top 10 fantasy QB.

yes, and Herbert was getting beat up. The O line wasnt doing as good a job of protecting him and he was getting hurt.

The team recognized this but the WR were taking up too much salary cap space so the decision was made to let them go and draft anew.

the Line is better, but still could stand to improve some. I wouldnt be surprised to see them take someone in the first 3 rounds to add to the depth there. and possibly another WR, TE, or RB. I think the team definitely needs one more playmaker in that offense.

a RB who can stay healthy would be nice. but I could see a TE or WR being added to the mix.

its also worth noting that Harbaugh is considered a running coach, but the QB performed decently under Harbaugh too. Not #1 good, but Kaep was pretty decent under Harbaugh and I think Herbert is far more talented than he was. so this coaching staff isnt a death sentence.

 

[zamboni]

The least important but still impactful problem was that the Chargers RB group was weak and could not stay healthy. For a team that wants to run as much as Harbaugh does, that hurts. I expect they will have some sort of upgrade in this group, which could help Herbert, depending on whether they go hunting in the bargain bin or use more substantial resources here.

This point concerns me regarding Herbert’s fantasy prospects, as it cuts both ways. On one hand, a strong running game will improve the overall offense and make it more efficient. But the running game is too good, then Herbert becomes even more of a game manager and his fantasy stats will suffer. So yes, it depends on who they have running the ball.

 

[TheWinz]

I expect the net outcome will be better fantasy performance for Herbert in 2025, but still not a top 10 fantasy QB.

Agreed. I was only trying to point out that his fantasy performances in 2020 & 2021 have made him an overvalued fantasy QB for the last 3 years. Most of the leagues I play in are 12-teamers, so I consider QB's 1-3 as awesome, 4-6 as very good, QB's 7-9 as good, and QB's 10-12 as acceptable. To this point in his career, he has 1 awesome season and a few stretches of good FF performances. Otherwise, if he was in your FF lineup, you were likely losing ground on most of the rest of your league.

 

[zamboni]

While hard to be overly optimistic, it’s also backwards looking to think that his fantasy prospects can’t change with a better ecosystem.

 

[zamboni]

One day into free agency and not a whole lot of optimism that Herbert's fantasy prospects will improve much this year. Basically all the top WR FAs have been spoken for, Palmer is gone, and they signed Najee Harris, the last of which increasingly accentuates Harbaugh's desire for a very run heavy scheme. With likely no top notch rookie WRs coming in the draft, and probably another rookie RB to join the fold, Herbert's fantasy prospects look a lot like what we saw last year.

 

[King of the Jungle]

One day into free agency and not a whole lot of optimism that Herbert's fantasy prospects will improve much this year. Basically all the top WR FAs have been spoken for, Palmer is gone, and they signed Najee Harris, the last of which increasingly accentuates Harbaugh's desire for a very run heavy scheme. With likely no top notch rookie WRs coming in the draft, and probably another rookie RB to join the fold, Herbert's fantasy prospects look a lot like what we saw last year.

A real bummer to see as a Herbert fan. Even if they land a top TE in the draft, that position has historically taken time to adjust to at the next level. Keenan Allen coming back makes sense at this point as you need warm bodies. Ugh…

 

[zamboni]

One day into free agency and not a whole lot of optimism that Herbert's fantasy prospects will improve much this year. Basically all the top WR FAs have been spoken for, Palmer is gone, and they signed Najee Harris, the last of which increasingly accentuates Harbaugh's desire for a very run heavy scheme. With likely no top notch rookie WRs coming in the draft, and probably another rookie RB to join the fold, Herbert's fantasy prospects look a lot like what we saw last year.

A real bummer to see as a Herbert fan. Even if they land a top TE in the draft, that position has historically taken time to adjust to at the next level. Keenan Allen coming back makes sense at this point as you need warm bodies. Ugh…

They won't get Warren unless they move up big time, so that's probably out of reach. Seems like the only WRs of note they can add at this point are a Keenan reunion or landing Kupp from across town, but I don't see either of them as big needle movers at this point.

Justin will just have to be a game manager - and obviously better than his last game.

 

[King of the Jungle]

One day into free agency and not a whole lot of optimism that Herbert's fantasy prospects will improve much this year. Basically all the top WR FAs have been spoken for, Palmer is gone, and they signed Najee Harris, the last of which increasingly accentuates Harbaugh's desire for a very run heavy scheme. With likely no top notch rookie WRs coming in the draft, and probably another rookie RB to join the fold, Herbert's fantasy prospects look a lot like what we saw last year.

A real bummer to see as a Herbert fan. Even if they land a top TE in the draft, that position has historically taken time to adjust to at the next level. Keenan Allen coming back makes sense at this point as you need warm bodies. Ugh…

They won't get Warren unless they move up big time, so that's probably out of reach. Seems like the only WRs of note they can add at this point are a Keenan reunion or landing Kupp from across town, but I don't see either of them as big needle movers at this point.

Justin will just have to be a game manager - and obviously better than his last game.

Diggs, Amari, Cooks, Hopkins, Mike Williams, Josh Reynolds, Chark… could assemble a geriatric ward if they need to…Herbert can’t be too excited at this point. Maybe they go after Higgins, as of today they are worse off than last year.

 

[zamboni]

Diggs, Amari, Cooks, Hopkins, Mike Williams, Josh Reynolds, Chark… could assemble a geriatric ward if they need to…

Right - forgot about those guys too. Basically in the same realm as Allen and Kupp, if not below, at this juncture. The fact that we haven't heard a sniff about any of these guys tells you all you need to know about their perceived value around the league at this stage.

 

[satch]

I'm bullish on Herbert in 2025. They signed Najee and drafted Hampton in round one, so the run game should be solid. McConkey looks like the real deal, and they just drafted 6'3" 210 Tre Harris in round two, a "Prototypical big-body, physical, strong-framed possession receiver who can win from multiple positions and fill the outside receiver role." (Bleacher Report) They also have Quentin Johnston, who could take another step forward in year three, and Mike Williams, who provides another big target in the red zone.

Going into year two under Harbaugh, Herbert and the boys should be more comfortable and confident in this offensive system. The offense should be able to move the ball with relative ease, and could be one of the more consistent offenses in the league. Herbert's fantasy success won't be tied to pass volume, but to all the pieces coming together. A well-rounded, fundamentally sound offense that moves the ball consistently and provides scoring opportunities. While they may not have a bunch of superstars on offense, a rising tide lifts all boats. With the undeniably talented Herbert under center and a steady Harbaugh at the helm, the Chargers' ship is coming in.

 

[zamboni]

I'm bullish on Herbert in 2025. They signed Najee and drafted Hampton in round one, so the run game should be solid. McConkey looks like the real deal, and they just drafted 6'3" 210 Tre Harris in round two, a "Prototypical big-body, physical, strong-framed possession receiver who can win from multiple positions and fill the outside receiver role." (Bleacher Report) They also have Quentin Johnston, who could take another step forward in year three, and Mike Williams, who provides another big target in the red zone.

Going into year two under Harbaugh, Herbert and the boys should be more comfortable and confident in this offensive system. The offense should be able to move the ball with relative ease, and could be one of the more consistent offenses in the league. Herbert's fantasy success won't be tied to pass volume, but to all the pieces coming together. A well-rounded, fundamentally sound offense that moves the ball consistently and provides scoring opportunities. While they may not have a bunch of superstars on offense, a rising tide lifts all boats. With the undeniably talented Herbert under center and a steady Harbaugh at the helm, the Chargers' ship is coming in.

I agree with you, although I’m not as bullish on Herbert from a pure fantasy standpoint. The offense sure seems to be built around the run game: While Herbert may be efficient, the volume seems to be an issue and it’s not like he runs a ton (maybe slightly more than the average QB). We all want Herbert to be that air it out gunslinger from his first few years, but that was in a much different scheme.

 

[satch]

I'm bullish on Herbert in 2025. They signed Najee and drafted Hampton in round one, so the run game should be solid. McConkey looks like the real deal, and they just drafted 6'3" 210 Tre Harris in round two, a "Prototypical big-body, physical, strong-framed possession receiver who can win from multiple positions and fill the outside receiver role." (Bleacher Report) They also have Quentin Johnston, who could take another step forward in year three, and Mike Williams, who provides another big target in the red zone.

Going into year two under Harbaugh, Herbert and the boys should be more comfortable and confident in this offensive system. The offense should be able to move the ball with relative ease, and could be one of the more consistent offenses in the league. Herbert's fantasy success won't be tied to pass volume, but to all the pieces coming together. A well-rounded, fundamentally sound offense that moves the ball consistently and provides scoring opportunities. While they may not have a bunch of superstars on offense, a rising tide lifts all boats. With the undeniably talented Herbert under center and a steady Harbaugh at the helm, the Chargers' ship is coming in.

I agree with you, although I’m not as bullish on Herbert from a pure fantasy standpoint. The offense sure seems to be built around the run game: While Herbert may be efficient, the volume seems to be an issue and it’s not like he runs a ton (albeit maybe slightly more than the average QB). We all want Herbert to be that air it out gunslinger from his first few years, but that was in a much different scheme.

I agree that volume and lack of rushing will prevent him from being an elite fantasy QB. Herbert’s fantasy success will come from consistency and efficiency. He won’t have enough blow up games to be top 3, but should be consistently good and have enough big games to be top 5-7 by season’s end. Look at what he did from week 8 and beyond in 2024. I think it’s reasonable to think he builds on that trend in year two of this system.

Perhaps “bullish” was the wrong word, I just think Herbert is going to be a great value in 2025. The kind of QB you can wait on, stack a team around, and still feel great about your QB on a weekly basis.

 

[zamboni]

I'm bullish on Herbert in 2025. They signed Najee and drafted Hampton in round one, so the run game should be solid. McConkey looks like the real deal, and they just drafted 6'3" 210 Tre Harris in round two, a "Prototypical big-body, physical, strong-framed possession receiver who can win from multiple positions and fill the outside receiver role." (Bleacher Report) They also have Quentin Johnston, who could take another step forward in year three, and Mike Williams, who provides another big target in the red zone.

Going into year two under Harbaugh, Herbert and the boys should be more comfortable and confident in this offensive system. The offense should be able to move the ball with relative ease, and could be one of the more consistent offenses in the league. Herbert's fantasy success won't be tied to pass volume, but to all the pieces coming together. A well-rounded, fundamentally sound offense that moves the ball consistently and provides scoring opportunities. While they may not have a bunch of superstars on offense, a rising tide lifts all boats. With the undeniably talented Herbert under center and a steady Harbaugh at the helm, the Chargers' ship is coming in.

I agree with you, although I’m not as bullish on Herbert from a pure fantasy standpoint. The offense sure seems to be built around the run game: While Herbert may be efficient, the volume seems to be an issue and it’s not like he runs a ton (albeit maybe slightly more than the average QB). We all want Herbert to be that air it out gunslinger from his first few years, but that was in a much different scheme.

I agree that volume and lack of rushing will prevent him from being an elite fantasy QB. Herbert’s fantasy success will come from consistency and efficiency. He won’t have enough blow up games to be top 3, but should be consistently good and have enough big games to be top 5-7 by season’s end. Look at what he did from week 8 and beyond in 2024. I think it’s reasonable to think he builds on that trend in year two of this system.

Perhaps “bullish” was the wrong word, I just think Herbert is going to be a great value in 2025. The kind of QB you can wait on, stack a team around, and still feel great about your QB on a weekly basis.

Fair points, although I think 5-7 may be optimistic. He did have a really nice stretch from week 8 on last year, although I think a lot of that had to do with a lack of running game with Dobbins getting hurt/slowing down and Gus and Vidal just not getting it done as well.

 

[TheWinz]

I'm bullish on Herbert in 2025. They signed Najee and drafted Hampton in round one, so the run game should be solid. McConkey looks like the real deal, and they just drafted 6'3" 210 Tre Harris in round two, a "Prototypical big-body, physical, strong-framed possession receiver who can win from multiple positions and fill the outside receiver role." (Bleacher Report) They also have Quentin Johnston, who could take another step forward in year three, and Mike Williams, who provides another big target in the red zone.

Going into year two under Harbaugh, Herbert and the boys should be more comfortable and confident in this offensive system. The offense should be able to move the ball with relative ease, and could be one of the more consistent offenses in the league. Herbert's fantasy success won't be tied to pass volume, but to all the pieces coming together. A well-rounded, fundamentally sound offense that moves the ball consistently and provides scoring opportunities. While they may not have a bunch of superstars on offense, a rising tide lifts all boats. With the undeniably talented Herbert under center and a steady Harbaugh at the helm, the Chargers' ship is coming in.

I agree with you, although I’m not as bullish on Herbert from a pure fantasy standpoint. The offense sure seems to be built around the run game: While Herbert may be efficient, the volume seems to be an issue and it’s not like he runs a ton (maybe slightly more than the average QB). We all want Herbert to be that air it out gunslinger from his first few years, but that was in a much different scheme.

Fantasy-wise, Herbert takes a major hit with Harbaugh. Last year was a very good season for the Chargers. They finished 11-6, and had their best season since Herbert took over in 2020. It was also Herbert's worst fantasy season. He had career lows in:
- Completions per game
- Attempts per game
- Passing yards per game
- Passing TD's per game

And he did this while having his highest passer rating season, and leading the league in interception percentage. Simply put, Harbaugh asked him to be a game manager, and he rose to the challenge. Last year, the Chargers were 28th in pass attempts. That was by design. In a 12-team league, I would put him as a fringe starter.

 

[satch]

I'm bullish on Herbert in 2025. They signed Najee and drafted Hampton in round one, so the run game should be solid. McConkey looks like the real deal, and they just drafted 6'3" 210 Tre Harris in round two, a "Prototypical big-body, physical, strong-framed possession receiver who can win from multiple positions and fill the outside receiver role." (Bleacher Report) They also have Quentin Johnston, who could take another step forward in year three, and Mike Williams, who provides another big target in the red zone.

Going into year two under Harbaugh, Herbert and the boys should be more comfortable and confident in this offensive system. The offense should be able to move the ball with relative ease, and could be one of the more consistent offenses in the league. Herbert's fantasy success won't be tied to pass volume, but to all the pieces coming together. A well-rounded, fundamentally sound offense that moves the ball consistently and provides scoring opportunities. While they may not have a bunch of superstars on offense, a rising tide lifts all boats. With the undeniably talented Herbert under center and a steady Harbaugh at the helm, the Chargers' ship is coming in.

I agree with you, although I’m not as bullish on Herbert from a pure fantasy standpoint. The offense sure seems to be built around the run game: While Herbert may be efficient, the volume seems to be an issue and it’s not like he runs a ton (albeit maybe slightly more than the average QB). We all want Herbert to be that air it out gunslinger from his first few years, but that was in a much different scheme.

I agree that volume and lack of rushing will prevent him from being an elite fantasy QB. Herbert’s fantasy success will come from consistency and efficiency. He won’t have enough blow up games to be top 3, but should be consistently good and have enough big games to be top 5-7 by season’s end. Look at what he did from week 8 and beyond in 2024. I think it’s reasonable to think he builds on that trend in year two of this system.

Perhaps “bullish” was the wrong word, I just think Herbert is going to be a great value in 2025. The kind of QB you can wait on, stack a team around, and still feel great about your QB on a weekly basis.

Fair points, although I think 5-7 may be optimistic. He did have a really nice stretch from week 8 on last year, although I think a lot of that had to do with a lack of running game with Dobbins getting hurt/slowing down and Gus and Vidal just not getting it done as well.

I wonder about that too when evaluating Herbert from week 8 on. It could be exactly what you said, or, it could be Harbaugh realizing what he has in Herbert, Herbert getting more comfortable with the system or maybe all of the above.

Harbaugh definitely wants to run the ball as evidenced by bringing in Najee & Hampton, but he also loves Herbert and just gave him Harris to pair with McConkey. The Chargers may just have a very good, well balanced offense that allows for a strong running game and Herbert to build on what he did from week 8 on.

 

[satch]

I'm bullish on Herbert in 2025. They signed Najee and drafted Hampton in round one, so the run game should be solid. McConkey looks like the real deal, and they just drafted 6'3" 210 Tre Harris in round two, a "Prototypical big-body, physical, strong-framed possession receiver who can win from multiple positions and fill the outside receiver role." (Bleacher Report) They also have Quentin Johnston, who could take another step forward in year three, and Mike Williams, who provides another big target in the red zone.

Going into year two under Harbaugh, Herbert and the boys should be more comfortable and confident in this offensive system. The offense should be able to move the ball with relative ease, and could be one of the more consistent offenses in the league. Herbert's fantasy success won't be tied to pass volume, but to all the pieces coming together. A well-rounded, fundamentally sound offense that moves the ball consistently and provides scoring opportunities. While they may not have a bunch of superstars on offense, a rising tide lifts all boats. With the undeniably talented Herbert under center and a steady Harbaugh at the helm, the Chargers' ship is coming in.

I agree with you, although I’m not as bullish on Herbert from a pure fantasy standpoint. The offense sure seems to be built around the run game: While Herbert may be efficient, the volume seems to be an issue and it’s not like he runs a ton (maybe slightly more than the average QB). We all want Herbert to be that air it out gunslinger from his first few years, but that was in a much different scheme.

Fantasy-wise, Herbert takes a major hit with Harbaugh. Last year was a very good season for the Chargers. They finished 11-6, and had their best season since Herbert took over in 2020. It was also Herbert's worst fantasy season. He had career lows in:
- Completions per game
- Attempts per game
- Passing yards per game
- Passing TD's per game

And he did this while having his highest passer rating season, and leading the league in interception percentage. Simply put, Harbaugh asked him to be a game manager, and he rose to the challenge. Last year, the Chargers were 28th in pass attempts. That was by design. In a 12-team league, I would put him as a fringe starter.

It was also Herbert’s first year in Harbaugh’s system, and a tale of two seasons for Herbert fantasy-wise. I as discussed above, I’d be interested to know what kind of numbers Herbert would’ve been on pace for if we extrapolate weeks 8-18 over a full season, and where that would’ve landed him among fantasy QBs at end of season. If I have time I’ll run the numbers.

I think Harbaugh understands that using Herbert as merely a game manager is a blatant waste of unique talent. Otherwise, why not trade Herbert and go with a lesser game manager type? I think Harbaugh established his run-first system, and will now try to exploit Herbert’s talent on top of that.