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QB Kyler Murray, ARZ (1 Viewer)

cloppbeast said:
It happens. Mistakes have learned me to tread cautiously. Saved me from Ronald Jones ii last year. But maybe you've had a better time planting your flag than me.

But I'm sure you can admit Carson Wentz+ or Russell Wilson+ is a bit irrational based on probability. You're basically depending on Murray being in Luck/Mahomes territory for trade to pay off.
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Not exactly. If you see Murray as a similar FF player as Wilson then the guy who’s 9 years younger should definitely be worth more. 

He doesn’t have to be Mahomes for someone to value him over Wilson/Wentz. 

 
PigSkinMan said:
Not exactly. If you see Murray as a similar FF player as Wilson then the guy who’s 9 years younger should definitely be worth more. 

He doesn’t have to be Mahomes for someone to value him over Wilson/Wentz. 
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The crazy thing is with his rushing ability he's got a higher ceiling than Mahomes the next 3-4 years. His peak projects to be shorter but it's going to be amazing. 

 
@Milkman

It's really great seeing you go to the mattresses here.  We should assign a poster to each thread to fight to the death for their guy.

 
Andy Dufresne said:
I'm not 100% with Milkman on all of this but I'm sort of in agreement on Wilson.

His numbers are a bit deceptive. If you think his TD/attempt ratio is sustainable then you're fine. But Seattle was 32nd in attempts last year (by 10 to Tennessee and 28, 28! to Miami. He had one 300+ yard passing game last year (and another almost).
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Both Wilson and Murray are underrated imo. Wilson's TD ratio isn't sustainable but neither is his low number of attempts. He very likely will have more attempts in every season the rest of his career (when healthy). 

Big Ben and Brady were game managers on a run 1st team once too. When you're as good a QB as ben/brady/russ eventually the offense runs through you. 

 
cloppbeast said:
An argument for an older back end qb1 is not an argument for Murray imo. Why use an asset at all to get Murray when Roethlisberger is so cheap? You'd be better off trading Wentz for a RB or WR with potential.

As for DLF, perhaps theyre wrong. If they represent the consnsus, perhaps it's wrong. Wouldn't be the first time.
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I think his point was that it's so easy to get a back end QB1 that it lessens the risk of a high ceiling/low floor guy like Murray because you can always just replace him if he hits that floor. 

This differs from other positions where floor matters more because it's not as easy to find a high floor replacement. Floor is almost irrelevant to me for QBs in 1qb leagues. 

 
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matuski said:
Nah, he can have his opinions... I'm just wondering what the upside is in trading perhaps the most consistent top 10 QB in the league, plus picks?

He would have to be BETTER than Wilson just to break even.
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Is that really that outlandish? 

Wilson averaged 18.7ppg last year. RG3 as a rookie averaged 21.3ppg on only 393 pass attempts. Wilson's career best season was only 21.7ppg.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
Both Wilson and Murray are underrated imo. Wilson's TD ratio isn't sustainable but neither is his low number of attempts. He very likely will have more attempts in every season the rest of his career (when healthy). 

Big Ben and Brady were game managers on a run 1st team once too. When you're as good a QB as ben/brady/russ eventually the offense runs through you. 
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True but Seattle started to run the offense through Russell Wilson then had a change of heart and are getting back to running the ball more. They just lost Baldwin to retirement too. I don't think they are planning on unleashing Wilson this year......

 
FreeBaGeL said:
Is that really that outlandish? 

Wilson averaged 18.7ppg last year. RG3 as a rookie averaged 21.3ppg on only 393 pass attempts. Wilson's career best season was only 21.7ppg.
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I think it is a gamble to assume Murray will be better in a given year, an even bigger gamble to assume it consistently year after year (Wilson top 10 shoe in).

I also think there are some large assumptions going into the amount of plays I see people predicting for AZ.  

 
matuski said:
I think it is a gamble to assume Murray will be better in a given year, an even bigger gamble to assume it consistently year after year (Wilson top 10 shoe in).

I also think there are some large assumptions going into the amount of plays I see people predicting for AZ.  
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Well we are talking ceiling/floors here so there are certainly no assumptions being made. Murray has an exponentially higher chance of flaming out and turning into nothing than Wilson does. In 1qb leagues though who really cares that much?

I only like Wilson more than the consensus for his underrated upside. I don't really care that he has a top 10 QB floor because unless you're in very deep roster leagues (I'm not, majority FFPC leagues actually) you can stream that kind of production with relative ease. 

Murray hitting it big is surprisingly attainable. Again RG3 put up ppg equal to Wilson's career best with only 3200 yards passing and 20 passing tds. That kind of passing production seems very attainable for a top end passing prospect in a Kingsbury offense. And if anything I think Murray is a better runner than RG3 so he might not even need 3200/20 passing to hit that 22ppg number. 

And then there is the upside beyond that. If Murray is as good a runner as Lamar Jackson (I think he is personally) then he only needs to be a Ryan Tannehill level passer to be arguably the best fantasy QB ever. 

And good god what if he ends up being as good a passer as Matt Stafford or Matt Ryan? 

 
FreeBaGeL said:
Well we are talking ceiling/floors here so there are certainly no assumptions being made. Murray has an exponentially higher chance of flaming out and turning into nothing than Wilson does. In 1qb leagues though who really cares that much?

I only like Wilson more than the consensus for his underrated upside. I don't really care that he has a top 10 QB floor because unless you're in very deep roster leagues (I'm not, majority FFPC leagues actually) you can stream that kind of production with relative ease. 

Murray hitting it big is surprisingly attainable. Again RG3 put up ppg equal to Wilson's career best with only 3200 yards passing and 20 passing tds. That kind of passing production seems very attainable for a top end passing prospect in a Kingsbury offense. And if anything I think Murray is a better runner than RG3 so he might not even need 3200/20 passing to hit that 22ppg number. 

And then there is the upside beyond that. If Murray is as good a runner as Lamar Jackson (I think he is personally) then he only needs to be a Ryan Tannehill level passer to be arguably the best fantasy QB ever. 

And good god what if he ends up being as good a passer as Matt Stafford or Matt Ryan? 
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If he proves a worthy NFL passer, no coach is going to run him like Lamar Jackson.

This is the lesson learned from a player you referenced yourself in RG3.

 
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FreeBaGeL said:
Well we are talking ceiling/floors here so there are certainly no assumptions being made. Murray has an exponentially higher chance of flaming out and turning into nothing than Wilson does. In 1qb leagues though who really cares that much?

I only like Wilson more than the consensus for his underrated upside. I don't really care that he has a top 10 QB floor because unless you're in very deep roster leagues (I'm not, majority FFPC leagues actually) you can stream that kind of production with relative ease. 

Murray hitting it big is surprisingly attainable. Again RG3 put up ppg equal to Wilson's career best with only 3200 yards passing and 20 passing tds. That kind of passing production seems very attainable for a top end passing prospect in a Kingsbury offense. And if anything I think Murray is a better runner than RG3 so he might not even need 3200/20 passing to hit that 22ppg number. 

And then there is the upside beyond that. If Murray is as good a runner as Lamar Jackson (I think he is personally) then he only needs to be a Ryan Tannehill level passer to be arguably the best fantasy QB ever. 

And good god what if he ends up being as good a passer as Matt Stafford or Matt Ryan? 
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This man gets it.

 
Josh Weinfuss @joshweinfuss

Kyler Murray not only throws an accurate ball, he throws a strong ball. He just complete a pass to Christian Kirk in 7 on 7 that was tipped Tramaine Brock Sr. But it wasn’t enough to knock the pass off its course.
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Blake Allen Murf @blakemurphy7

I might get a lot of people who totally disagree with this but I have a take after a few live practices and we’ll see cause things can change but...

I think that it’s clear so far that Kyler’s floor might be higher than Josh Rosen’s ceiling.  Certainly his camp highs/lows are>>>
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Training Camp Buzz: Fitz impressed by Kyler Murray

Excerpt:

» In his 16-year career, receiver Larry Fitzgerald has seen a lot of offensive evolution. From journeymen like Brian Hoyer and Josh McCown to established names like Kurt Warner and Carson Palmer, Fitzgerald has had the opportunity to field passes from players all across the spectrum.

And all of those experiences lead him to 2019 where he will take on the challenge of playing with No. 1 overall pick Kyler Murray, the 20th QB Fitzgerald has played with.

He's been asked several times during the offseason about how Murray looks and, during Sunday's edition of Inside Training Camp Live, Fitz was asked once again by one of his former QBs (Warner) how Murray looks. His reply is a real eye-opener.

"I've never seen a quarterback come in so quickly and be able to command an offense," Fitzgerald told Warner. "I mean, from Day 1, he's out there checking the different plays, sliding the line, different protections, getting us in screens when blitzes are coming. His understanding of the offense is crazy.

"I think that's going to give us a great advantage, to play fast from the first preseason game all the way to the start of the regular season and giving him the keys to the car and letting him is going to be great for us."

Brace yourselves, Cards fan; the good times could start rolling real soon.
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What do u guys think KM's value is in a dynasty Superflex league?  Thinking of making a big trade offer. I have Andrew Luck and Cam Newton... Thinking of offering Cam and my 1 next year. 

 
Royalsfan420 said:
What do u guys think KM's value is in a dynasty Superflex league?  Thinking of making a big trade offer. I have Andrew Luck and Cam Newton... Thinking of offering Cam and my 1 next year. 
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Cam should be worth more than Kyler right now.  If he isn't, then now is a bad time to trade Cam. 

 
Royalsfan420 said:
What do u guys think KM's value is in a dynasty Superflex league?  Thinking of making a big trade offer. I have Andrew Luck and Cam Newton... Thinking of offering Cam and my 1 next year. 
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I like KM but this feels like an overpayment offer, and I am also very bullish on the 2020 NFL Draft Class as it looks to be rich in WR, QB, and RB prospects.

While a draft class can change dramatically over the course of one year and it can be human nature to be optimistic with future draft classes, I think those who can accrue multiple 2020 draft picks will be rewarded.

 
kittenmittens said:
Cam should be worth more than Kyler right now.  If he isn't, then now is a bad time to trade Cam. 
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I don’t play superflex or dynasty, but Cam is a decent value in redraft this year. ECR 10, he’s been top-4 in all five seasons he’s played 16 games.

Like Murray but only if he falls to QB12 or so. Which seems very unlikely.

 
BobbyLayne said:
I don’t play superflex or dynasty, but Cam is a decent value in redraft this year. ECR 10, he’s been top-4 in all five seasons he’s played 16 games.

Like Murray but only if he falls to QB12 or so. Which seems very unlikely.
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Yeah, Cam is already pretty much what we hope Murray is.  I hope Murray can produce similar fantasy numbers to Cam.  Cam has that huge size to go with his speed to stay healthy and get those rushing yards and TDs, but Murray is more accurate of a passer.  Murray is a lot younger, but he could bust. 

 
kittenmittens said:
Yeah, Cam is already pretty much what we hope Murray is.  I hope Murray can produce similar fantasy numbers to Cam.  Cam has that huge size to go with his speed to stay healthy and get those rushing yards and TDs, but Murray is more accurate of a passer.  Murray is a lot younger, but he could bust. 
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It’s probably just a perception thing but if I draft a running QB - safe floor because of rushing yards & TDs - then I feel compelled to draft a drop back QB late. Whereas if I draft a non-mobile QB, I’m perfectly content drafting only one & picking up the bye week filled when the need arises. Every single year there’s a surprise QB on the wire.

 
kittenmittens said:
Yeah, Cam is already pretty much what we hope Murray is.  I hope Murray can produce similar fantasy numbers to Cam.  Cam has that huge size to go with his speed to stay healthy and get those rushing yards and TDs, but Murray is more accurate of a passer.  Murray is a lot younger, but he could bust. 
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I'm trying real hard not to buy the hype. in one league I'm going for him I have Goff and dak, two very promising young QBs. To upgrade from either to Murray, even best case scenario if he is a top 3 qb, I'm not sure hes worth the cost...

 
Royalsfan420 said:
What do u guys think KM's value is in a dynasty Superflex league?  Thinking of making a big trade offer. I have Andrew Luck and Cam Newton... Thinking of offering Cam and my 1 next year. 
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He's worth 2 Cams + some.........

 
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Faust said:
I like KM but this feels like an overpayment offer, and I am also very bullish on the 2020 NFL Draft Class as it looks to be rich in WR, QB, and RB prospects.

While a draft class can change dramatically over the course of one year and it can be human nature to be optimistic with future draft classes, I think those who can accrue multiple 2020 draft picks will be rewarded.
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I tend to agree, though the hype on Murray is so high that if you want him right now you probably have to overpay unless you know for sure the guy who owns him isn't fully on the train. 

As far as Cam, I love him, but I could see the guy holding Murray not biting at all given the difference in age and Cam's health.

 
I didn't have a 1 this year..traded it in another trade...so would be like I drafted KM as my 1 this year...(which I would have), then just didn't sign Cam

 
I have KM in my dynasty and would not trade him for Cam straight up. I question Cam’s longevity since he relies on his legs for QB1 value and he’s already 30.

I’m also quite high on KM, I believe he has the highest ceiling of a rookie FF QB since Luck/RG3 with his throwing/running ability. 

I just hope he can stay healthy unlike the 2 mentioned above. 

 
I hold the number one pick this year in my keeper league rookie draft and while I usually eschew drafting qbs and just stream them weekly or draft a few and roll with who I drafted I have to admit I’m intrigued by his passing and running potential in that offense. I’m just gonna wait until preseason games start and then see how he looks and make a decision based on the games and camp news. 

Im definitely intrigued tho

 
finfansteve said:
I hold the number one pick this year in my keeper league rookie draft and while I usually eschew drafting qbs and just stream them weekly or draft a few and roll with who I drafted I have to admit I’m intrigued by his passing and running potential in that offense. I’m just gonna wait until preseason games start and then see how he looks and make a decision based on the games and camp news. 

Im definitely intrigued tho
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Unless you’re rolling out Rosen in a 1QB league, it would be a mistake to take him that high. Jacobs is far safer and potentially better for your prospects this season. 

 
tangfoot said:
Unless you’re rolling out Rosen in a 1QB league, it would be a mistake to take him that high. Jacobs is far safer and potentially better for your prospects this season. 
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I’m still leaning that way but I’ll admit I’ll be watching him up until draft day. If he can generate a ton of points like some are saying on this board (possible greatest fantasy asset or something like that ever) I have to at least consider him

 
Assuming Murray isnwhat Milkman says he is, how many more fp/g is that above your current qb. And is that worth the investment? 

And what if hes good but not as good as many say? 

And what if he busts?

The only way taking him so high is worth it is if he is the greatest fantasy asset of all time. Otherwise you're just pissing a 1st round pick away on JAQ

 
finfansteve said:
I hold the number one pick this year in my keeper league rookie draft and while I usually eschew drafting qbs and just stream them weekly or draft a few and roll with who I drafted I have to admit I’m intrigued by his passing and running potential in that offense. I’m just gonna wait until preseason games start and then see how he looks and make a decision based on the games and camp news. 

Im definitely intrigued tho
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Trade down and draft him. If you can’t trade picks then draft Jacobs and work out a deal with whoever ends up drafting Murray after the draft ends.

 
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In my dynasty where I already have Luck and Wentz, I have the 1.2 and 1.3 picks, and I'm seriously considering taking Murray with one of those picks. Almost 100% certain the 1.1 will go Jacobs. I have Gurley, so I was already thinking either Sanders/Montgomery/Henderson, and maybe 2 of those 3. But Murray intrigues me a lot, because I think his floor is so much higher. AZ will be throwing a LOT. 

 
Shrek said:
In my dynasty where I already have Luck and Wentz, I have the 1.2 and 1.3 picks, and I'm seriously considering taking Murray with one of those picks. Almost 100% certain the 1.1 will go Jacobs. I have Gurley, so I was already thinking either Sanders/Montgomery/Henderson, and maybe 2 of those 3. But Murray intrigues me a lot, because I think his floor is so much higher. AZ will be throwing a LOT. 
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super flex?

 
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