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QB Match Ups to Exploit/Avoid Week 6... (1 Viewer)

Good Stuff MoP as usual, although I have my doubts about Favre being a top 10 play this week. They play against a Skins defense who that is only allowing 12 PPG. They have also only allowed 2 passing TDs through four weeks. I can see maybe 200+ yards and a TD, but not much else. JMO. :lmao: Overall Good job!
If you notice, i don't have him under my must starts so I share in what you are saying. Good stuff.
Yikes! Sorry MoP, the top 10 list that Packer 7 had up is what I was referring to. Sorry about that. I KNEW you would not put Favre in as a top 10 play this week! :yes:
 
I think you and I are the only ones who think Hasslebeck is a decent start this week.

FBg currently ranked at #22, vs the saints. :lmao:

Know I know Branch is out, but the Saints D is horrible.
I have Hasselbeck significantly higher than that, although not in the elite group, because you can't expect that passing offense to hum like it usually does with Engram moved out of his comfort zone in the slot, Pollard banged up, and no Branch to occupy the deep safety. Maybe Obomanu can make up for some of the loss of Branch, but that remains to be seen. The passing offense was stalled out on the side of the road last week, against a sometimes vulnerable Pittsburgh secondary, but Hasselbeck seemed uncomfortable and looked like he was pressing once Branch was out - trying instead of just doing...But the trump card here is still the Saints D - they have made every QB they have faced look good, except Carr - and that just tells you the bad play of Carr trumps the bad play of even the worst defense. It does get tougher if you have the option of McNair, Huard, or Warner, who have good matchups and better weapons.
I thought I read that Engram was staying put and Obama would step into the #2 role. :yes: Great job, MOP. Love the upgrade. I don't see how Hass isn't top 12 at a minimum. Over-reaction to last week, I guess.
Agree, I don't think Engram will be moved at all. Obomanu(WW pick up) and Wallace will likely split some time on the outside with Burleson lining up opposite and Engram tearing his usual path down the middle. Game is at home too...I see Hass somewhere in the 200-250 range possibly and 2 TD is not out of the question for him. Remember, that rushing attack for Seattle ain't exactly lighting it up either.
 
Thanks for putting in the effort MoP. Great work. :lmao: For those of you who are subscribers and are asking for more of this other than the QBs that Mop was so kind to display, check out the defensive game logs. Go to Target Details then choose a team season summary and then click on Def. game logs. Info right at your fingertips for every team.

This is a great feature.
I didn't even know that existed, very nice Wheelhouse.

Edited to add: Seriously folks...if you subscribe, follow what Wheelhouse just pointed out step by step...the 1st page is not the page you want to stop clicking into...the game logs are hard to find but just look at the bar across the top...that is awesome.

You just gotta keep clicking around on the subscriber info, there is more and more stuff I keep finding out about...that is awesome Wheel, thanks.

 
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I think you and I are the only ones who think Hasslebeck is a decent start this week.

FBg currently ranked at #22, vs the saints. :lmao:

Know I know Branch is out, but the Saints D is horrible.
I have Hasselbeck significantly higher than that, although not in the elite group, because you can't expect that passing offense to hum like it usually does with Engram moved out of his comfort zone in the slot, Pollard banged up, and no Branch to occupy the deep safety. Maybe Obomanu can make up for some of the loss of Branch, but that remains to be seen. The passing offense was stalled out on the side of the road last week, against a sometimes vulnerable Pittsburgh secondary, but Hasselbeck seemed uncomfortable and looked like he was pressing once Branch was out - trying instead of just doing...But the trump card here is still the Saints D - they have made every QB they have faced look good, except Carr - and that just tells you the bad play of Carr trumps the bad play of even the worst defense. It does get tougher if you have the option of McNair, Huard, or Warner, who have good matchups and better weapons.
I thought I read that Engram was staying put and Obama would step into the #2 role. :yes: Great job, MOP. Love the upgrade. I don't see how Hass isn't top 12 at a minimum. Over-reaction to last week, I guess.
Agree, I don't think Engram will be moved at all. Obomanu(WW pick up) and Wallace will likely split some time on the outside with Burleson lining up opposite and Engram tearing his usual path down the middle. Game is at home too...I see Hass somewhere in the 200-250 range possibly and 2 TD is not out of the question for him. Remember, that rushing attack for Seattle ain't exactly lighting it up either.
Looks like Bloom was right on.Found this on CBS...

Bobby Engram, WR SEA

News: Bobby Engram walked into Mike Holmgren's office and told his coach he was ready for the larger, lead role that the Seahawks need filled in their depleted passing game. "When he walked in the door, I knew exactly what he was going to say: Everyone wants to play more," Holmgren said of his veteran receiver, who will replace the injured Deion Branch as the starting flanker when Seattle hosts New Orleans on Sunday night. Engram's 19 catches through five games are second on the team to Branch's 22. His two touchdown receptions are tied for the team lead with Nate Burleson. Now Engram is moving from his slot position as QB Matt Hasselbeck's trusted target on third down to the outside, lead role on early downs. In three wide-receiver sets, Engram will go back into the slot and Ben Obomanu, a seventh-round draft choice in 2006, will go outside.

Analysis: Consider Engram a solid start for Week 6 against the Saints. He should be a No. 2 Fantasy WR in all lineups.

 
I think you and I are the only ones who think Hasslebeck is a decent start this week.

FBg currently ranked at #22, vs the saints. :shrug:

Know I know Branch is out, but the Saints D is horrible.
I have Hasselbeck significantly higher than that, although not in the elite group, because you can't expect that passing offense to hum like it usually does with Engram moved out of his comfort zone in the slot, Pollard banged up, and no Branch to occupy the deep safety. Maybe Obomanu can make up for some of the loss of Branch, but that remains to be seen. The passing offense was stalled out on the side of the road last week, against a sometimes vulnerable Pittsburgh secondary, but Hasselbeck seemed uncomfortable and looked like he was pressing once Branch was out - trying instead of just doing...But the trump card here is still the Saints D - they have made every QB they have faced look good, except Carr - and that just tells you the bad play of Carr trumps the bad play of even the worst defense. It does get tougher if you have the option of McNair, Huard, or Warner, who have good matchups and better weapons.
I thought I read that Engram was staying put and Obama would step into the #2 role. :no: Great job, MOP. Love the upgrade. I don't see how Hass isn't top 12 at a minimum. Over-reaction to last week, I guess.
Agree, I don't think Engram will be moved at all. Obomanu(WW pick up) and Wallace will likely split some time on the outside with Burleson lining up opposite and Engram tearing his usual path down the middle. Game is at home too...I see Hass somewhere in the 200-250 range possibly and 2 TD is not out of the question for him. Remember, that rushing attack for Seattle ain't exactly lighting it up either.
Looks like Bloom was right on.Found this on CBS...

Bobby Engram, WR SEA

News: Bobby Engram walked into Mike Holmgren's office and told his coach he was ready for the larger, lead role that the Seahawks need filled in their depleted passing game. "When he walked in the door, I knew exactly what he was going to say: Everyone wants to play more," Holmgren said of his veteran receiver, who will replace the injured Deion Branch as the starting flanker when Seattle hosts New Orleans on Sunday night. Engram's 19 catches through five games are second on the team to Branch's 22. His two touchdown receptions are tied for the team lead with Nate Burleson. Now Engram is moving from his slot position as QB Matt Hasselbeck's trusted target on third down to the outside, lead role on early downs. In three wide-receiver sets, Engram will go back into the slot and Ben Obomanu, a seventh-round draft choice in 2006, will go outside.

Analysis: Consider Engram a solid start for Week 6 against the Saints. He should be a No. 2 Fantasy WR in all lineups.
Great that he will be on the field more but he still assumes his 3rd down in the slot role, that is what I care about. He's a security blanket for Hass, and he moves the sticks.
 
Great breakdown MoP. Solid.

I just wanted to chime in on Garrard and his stats for the year to give a clearer picture why some may be a little higher on him that you. He is throwing at about 68% completion, only has one game so far this year under 25 attempts and has thrown a TD a game (no INTs) along with around 20 yards rushing per game. He is VASTLY better on his reads and progressions than last year, when he might as well have thrown the ball to the safeties considering his routes were jumped so often, and has a great sense of when to run and make the play with his legs. Personally, I think the Jags are going to lean on him more as the year goes on and he will come off the leash a bit more game by game. He hasn't keyed in on any reciever and is simply going to the open guy, and I think that is the first sign he is truly maturing as a QB.

Houston is around 15th or so in pass defense on the year, and I think this will be a solid match-up - as AFC south divisional games are wont to be.

ETA: I'm obviously a jags fan. I don't think my glasses are too teal colored however.

 
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I think you and I are the only ones who think Hasslebeck is a decent start this week.

FBg currently ranked at #22, vs the saints. :confused:

Know I know Branch is out, but the Saints D is horrible.
I have Hasselbeck significantly higher than that, although not in the elite group, because you can't expect that passing offense to hum like it usually does with Engram moved out of his comfort zone in the slot, Pollard banged up, and no Branch to occupy the deep safety. Maybe Obomanu can make up for some of the loss of Branch, but that remains to be seen. The passing offense was stalled out on the side of the road last week, against a sometimes vulnerable Pittsburgh secondary, but Hasselbeck seemed uncomfortable and looked like he was pressing once Branch was out - trying instead of just doing...But the trump card here is still the Saints D - they have made every QB they have faced look good, except Carr - and that just tells you the bad play of Carr trumps the bad play of even the worst defense. It does get tougher if you have the option of McNair, Huard, or Warner, who have good matchups and better weapons.
I thought I read that Engram was staying put and Obama would step into the #2 role. :confused: Great job, MOP. Love the upgrade. I don't see how Hass isn't top 12 at a minimum. Over-reaction to last week, I guess.
Agree, I don't think Engram will be moved at all. Obomanu(WW pick up) and Wallace will likely split some time on the outside with Burleson lining up opposite and Engram tearing his usual path down the middle. Game is at home too...I see Hass somewhere in the 200-250 range possibly and 2 TD is not out of the question for him. Remember, that rushing attack for Seattle ain't exactly lighting it up either.
Looks like Bloom was right on.Found this on CBS...

Bobby Engram, WR SEA

News: Bobby Engram walked into Mike Holmgren's office and told his coach he was ready for the larger, lead role that the Seahawks need filled in their depleted passing game. "When he walked in the door, I knew exactly what he was going to say: Everyone wants to play more," Holmgren said of his veteran receiver, who will replace the injured Deion Branch as the starting flanker when Seattle hosts New Orleans on Sunday night. Engram's 19 catches through five games are second on the team to Branch's 22. His two touchdown receptions are tied for the team lead with Nate Burleson. Now Engram is moving from his slot position as QB Matt Hasselbeck's trusted target on third down to the outside, lead role on early downs. In three wide-receiver sets, Engram will go back into the slot and Ben Obomanu, a seventh-round draft choice in 2006, will go outside.

Analysis: Consider Engram a solid start for Week 6 against the Saints. He should be a No. 2 Fantasy WR in all lineups.
Great that he will be on the field more but he still assumes his 3rd down in the slot role, that is what I care about. He's a security blanket for Hass, and he moves the sticks.
You raise a good point, he does most of his damage against nickel corners on 3rd down, and he should still be able to do that, so Engrams outlook is good. On first and second down, Hasselbeck loses the big play option on the outside - Engram is just not a guy who is going to burn corners deep or break free for the big play with any consistency, the home run threat that Branch provided evaporates, and a dimension of the Seattle passing game that pads Hasselbeck's numbers goes with it. The absence of Branch also allows the secondary to tighten up a little bit. Of course, again I come back to the lapses in NO's secondary so far this year, and think it may not matter, that as long as Hasselbeck is seeing the field and throwing well, the big plays will come because the Saints will basically give the Seahawks engraved invitations to make them.
 
The Football Freak said:
Great breakdown MoP. Solid.I just wanted to chime in on Garrard and his stats for the year to give a clearer picture why some may be a little higher on him that you. He is throwing at about 68% completion, only has one game so far this year under 25 attempts and has thrown a TD a game (no INTs) along with around 20 yards rushing per game. He is VASTLY better on his reads and progressions than last year, when he might as well have thrown the ball to the safeties considering his routes were jumped so often, and has a great sense of when to run and make the play with his legs. Personally, I think the Jags are going to lean on him more as the year goes on and he will come off the leash a bit more game by game. He hasn't keyed in on any reciever and is simply going to the open guy, and I think that is the first sign he is truly maturing as a QB. Houston is around 15th or so in pass defense on the year, and I think this will be a solid match-up - as AFC south divisional games are wont to be.ETA: I'm obviously a jags fan. I don't think my glasses are too teal colored however.
Duly noted, good stuff.
 
The Football Freak said:
Great breakdown MoP. Solid.I just wanted to chime in on Garrard and his stats for the year to give a clearer picture why some may be a little higher on him that you. He is throwing at about 68% completion, only has one game so far this year under 25 attempts and has thrown a TD a game (no INTs) along with around 20 yards rushing per game. He is VASTLY better on his reads and progressions than last year, when he might as well have thrown the ball to the safeties considering his routes were jumped so often, and has a great sense of when to run and make the play with his legs. Personally, I think the Jags are going to lean on him more as the year goes on and he will come off the leash a bit more game by game. He hasn't keyed in on any reciever and is simply going to the open guy, and I think that is the first sign he is truly maturing as a QB. Houston is around 15th or so in pass defense on the year, and I think this will be a solid match-up - as AFC south divisional games are wont to be.ETA: I'm obviously a jags fan. I don't think my glasses are too teal colored however.
Duly noted, good stuff.
Thanks. I know it is pretty obvious stuff, but after three nice wins and his solid play, I see his stats getting better as the season goes on. As much as I hated how disrespectfully it was done, I understand now why Leftwich became expendable.
 
Love this stuff every week. Great analysis.

I love this format as well.

I have only one suggestion noted in bold below.

Not a big deal, it would just make for easier reference.

Thanks for all the great work.

Baltimore:

Week 1: Carson Palmer 20/32, 194, 2TD…considering the Qb, I don’t think this was that bad.

Week 2: Kellen Clemens 19/37, 260, TD/2INT…got the job done, but not the best.

Week 3: Warner/Leinart 24/40, 311, 2 TD…They were ahead by about 20 at one point…then they started to get soft. Had a hammer lock on Leinart though.

Week 4: Derek Anderson 10/18 204, 2 TD/INT…3rd game of 2+ TD for the season.

Week 5: Trent Dilfer 12/19, 126, TD/INT…look at the Qb here before you give them any kudos.

Week 6:This weeks QB's name

I don’t think they are studs but you have to take into account they are stiff stiff stiff against the run. Teams would rather take their chances thru the air really. In fact I think they still do have a pretty solid secondary. I wouldn’t just wheel out my Qb against them and expect great numbers against them.
 
Washington:

Week 1: Trent Green, Pass: 24 - 38 - 219 - 1 TD / 0 INT

Week 2: Donovan McNabb, Pass: 28 - 46 - 240 - 0 TD / 0 INT

Week 3: Eli Manning, Pass: 21 - 36 - 232 - 1 TD / 2 INT

Week 4: Bye

Week 5: Jon Kitna, Pass: 16 - 29 - 106 - 0 TD / 2 INT

This is somewhat impressive. They have a very solid secondary. My question and I hope Skins fans will take the time to educate us on their DL…where is the pressure coming form because without getting heat on the Qb, no secondary can survive. They shut down McNabb, Manning was meh, and what they did to Kitna was criminal. Now they will have their hands full with Brett Favre this weekend but I am thinking they are up to the challenge. Imagine the Skins at 4-1…are they really that good? I don’t think Green bay is all that great so they certainly are beatable.
I'd be interested in additional analysis of this as well.
 
The Football Freak said:
Great breakdown MoP. Solid.I just wanted to chime in on Garrard and his stats for the year to give a clearer picture why some may be a little higher on him that you. He is throwing at about 68% completion, only has one game so far this year under 25 attempts and has thrown a TD a game (no INTs) along with around 20 yards rushing per game. He is VASTLY better on his reads and progressions than last year, when he might as well have thrown the ball to the safeties considering his routes were jumped so often, and has a great sense of when to run and make the play with his legs. Personally, I think the Jags are going to lean on him more as the year goes on and he will come off the leash a bit more game by game. He hasn't keyed in on any reciever and is simply going to the open guy, and I think that is the first sign he is truly maturing as a QB. Houston is around 15th or so in pass defense on the year, and I think this will be a solid match-up - as AFC south divisional games are wont to be.ETA: I'm obviously a jags fan. I don't think my glasses are too teal colored however.
Hope you dont mind I copied this into the Garrard thread.
 
Good stuff. Another thing that would be great is if after the stats of each QBs output, someone listed their average stats/week for that QB as well. Then you could calculate the difference between the QB average and their weekly performance. Average all the weekly differences for a team's D and you come up with that team's overall modifier scores against QBs. Maybe this is already done somewhere. So, here's an example of the first couple of teams. I'm ignoring average completion numbers for the averages in this example, although in my league that takes into account yds/attempt and sacks, that may be interesting. Fumbles and rushing yards aren't counted in the examples either.

New England:

Chad Pennington 16/21, 167, 2TD || Average: 203 yds, 1.5 TDs, 1.25 ints || Difference: -36 yds, .5 TDs, -1.25 ints

Phillip Rivers 19/30, 179, 2 TD and 2 INT || Average: 231 yds, 1.4 TDs, 1.2 ints || Difference: -52 yds, .8 TDs, -.8 int

Trent Edwards 10/20, 97, 0TD || Average: 169 yds, .33 TD, 1 int || Difference: -72 yds, -.33 Tds, -1 int

Carson Palmer 21/35, 234, 1TD and 2 INT || Average: 293 yds, 2.5 TDs, 1.5 ints || Difference: -59 yds, -1 TD, .5 int

Derek Anderson 22/43 287, 2TD, 3INT || Average: 250 yds, 2.2 TDs, 1.6 ints || Difference: 37 yds, -.2 TD, 1.4 int

New England's QB Adjustment Score/week: -36 yds, -0 TDs, -.2 ints

Buffalo:

Jay Cutler 22/39, 304 TD/INT || Average: 232 yds, .8 TD, 1.2 ints || Difference: 72 yds, .2 TD, -.2 int

Big Ben 21/34, 242, TD/INT || Average: 203 yds, 1.8 TDs, .6 int || Difference: 39 yds, -.8 TD, .4 int

Tom Brady 23/29, 311, 4TD || Average: 277 yds, 3.2 TDs, .4 int || Difference: 34 yds, .8 TD, -.4 int

Pennington 32/39, 290, TD/2INT || Average: 203 yds, 1.5 TDs, 1.25 ints || Difference: 87 yds, -.5 TD, .75 ints

Tony Romo 29/50 309, 2TD/5INT || Average: 302 yds, 2.6 TDs, 1.6 ints || Difference: -7 yds, -.6 TD, 3.4 ints

Buffalo's QB Adjustment Score/week: +45 yds, -.3 TDs, +.8 ints

 
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Washington:

Week 1: Trent Green, Pass: 24 - 38 - 219 - 1 TD / 0 INT

Week 2: Donovan McNabb, Pass: 28 - 46 - 240 - 0 TD / 0 INT

Week 3: Eli Manning, Pass: 21 - 36 - 232 - 1 TD / 2 INT

Week 4: Bye

Week 5: Jon Kitna, Pass: 16 - 29 - 106 - 0 TD / 2 INT

This is somewhat impressive. They have a very solid secondary. My question and I hope Skins fans will take the time to educate us on their DL…where is the pressure coming form because without getting heat on the Qb, no secondary can survive. They shut down McNabb, Manning was meh, and what they did to Kitna was criminal. Now they will have their hands full with Brett Favre this weekend but I am thinking they are up to the challenge. Imagine the Skins at 4-1…are they really that good? I don’t think Green bay is all that great so they certainly are beatable.
I'd be interested in additional analysis of this as well.
To touch on the bolded part, the 'Skins front four have done a decent job all year of putting pressure on QBs. In the Detroit game last week they didn't call even one blitz the entire game. Even when they're not getting sacks (they are averaging 2.6/game) they are pressuring/collapsing the pocket enough to make QBs have to move around or at least worry about them (this was certainly the case in the Philly game, IIRC). And if QBs are worrying about the pass rush they're not fully focused downfield.The pass rush this year is light years ahead of what it was last season (it should be easy to improve on nonexistent :clap: ). Cornelius Griffin has stayed relatively healthy, Andre Carter is finally showing he can be the beast DE that he was signed to be (watch how he abuses Detroit's LT to get the safety, starts at 1:49), and 2nd year DT Anthony Montgomery could very well be the most improved player in the NFL, much less the team.

Green Bay may be the best OL they've faced so far, though. I'm not sure how they compare to Philly, but the 'Skins D sacked McNabb 3 times and had him shuffling his feet for alot of the game. If they can do something similar with Favre, I think they can force him to make some of his famous ill-advised throws, and hopefully the secondary will be ready to capitalize on them.

ETA: Carter video link

 
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Good stuff. Another thing that would be great is if after the stats of each QBs output, someone listed their average stats/week for that QB as well. Then you could calculate the difference between the QB average and their weekly performance. Average all the weekly differences for a team's D and you come up with that team's overall modifier scores against QBs. Maybe this is already done somewhere. So, here's an example of the first couple of teams. I'm ignoring average completion numbers for the averages in this example, although in my league that takes into account yds/attempt and sacks, that may be interesting. Fumbles and rushing yards aren't counted in the examples either.New England:Chad Pennington 16/21, 167, 2TD || Average: 203 yds, 1.5 TDs, 1.25 ints || Difference: -36 yds, .5 TDs, -1.25 intsPhillip Rivers 19/30, 179, 2 TD and 2 INT || Average: 231 yds, 1.4 TDs, 1.2 ints || Difference: -52 yds, .8 TDs, -.8 intTrent Edwards 10/20, 97, 0TD || Average: 169 yds, .33 TD, 1 int || Difference: -72 yds, -.33 Tds, -1 intCarson Palmer 21/35, 234, 1TD and 2 INT || Average: 293 yds, 2.5 TDs, 1.5 ints || Difference: -59 yds, -1 TD, .5 intDerek Anderson 22/43 287, 2TD, 3INT || Average: 250 yds, 2.2 TDs, 1.6 ints || Difference: 37 yds, -.2 TD, 1.4 intNew England's QB Adjustment Score/week: -36 yds, -0 TDs, -.2 intsBuffalo:Jay Cutler 22/39, 304 TD/INT || Average: 232 yds, .8 TD, 1.2 ints || Difference: 72 yds, .2 TD, -.2 intBig Ben 21/34, 242, TD/INT || Average: 203 yds, 1.8 TDs, .6 int || Difference: 39 yds, -.8 TD, .4 intTom Brady 23/29, 311, 4TD || Average: 277 yds, 3.2 TDs, .4 int || Difference: 34 yds, .8 TD, -.4 intPennington 32/39, 290, TD/2INT || Average: 203 yds, 1.5 TDs, 1.25 ints || Difference: 87 yds, -.5 TD, .75 intsTony Romo 29/50 309, 2TD/5INT || Average: 302 yds, 2.6 TDs, 1.6 ints || Difference: -7 yds, -.6 TD, 3.4 intsBuffalo's QB Adjustment Score/week: +45 yds, -.3 TDs, +.8 ints
"He got so busy during the intramural/tax season, the Warden allowed for a small staff."That one's for Andy, and I seriously would need a staff of people to start going in that direction. I am but one person, but please feel free to volunteer and do this for all 32 teams, would be great.
 
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That one's for Andy, and I seriously would need a staff of people to start going in that direction. I am but one person, but please feel free to volunteer and do this for all 32 teams, would be great.
Yeah, I didn't actually think that anyone would do that, although it's exactly the type of thing I'd love a service or someone provide. Actually, since you don't have to do a person's average twice, it would only be about twice as much work per week as long as you were keeping things up-to-date. I can also imagine a spreadsheet that would do/calculate it all if you just entered in the weekly stats once for each QB each week, which is being done here anyway. It would take some time to set up the sheet though.
 

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