QB Matt Ryan, IND (1 Viewer)

[FF Ninja]

I have to yammer about the past 5 years, if I only yammer about last year like you do, it's recency bias whatever it is you want to call only looking at recent results.

Are you kidding me right now? I've clearly been focusing on the last THREE YEARS. Again, stop being dense. The reason I'm focusing on the past THREE YEARS is that's how long Todd Haley has been the Pit O.C. I don't see the point in trying to project this year based on a totally different offense.

Some people...

 

[BroadwayG]

So let me get this straight. In the past 3 years, the only time he's finished QB6 was last year, his only 30TD season was last year, his only 600 attempt season was last year, his only 65% completion rate was last year, his only 4500 yard season was last year. And his ranking of QB5 in redraft isn't recency bias?

 

[Sabertooth]

Correct.

 

[skinsrule05]

I have to yammer about the past 5 years, if I only yammer about last year like you do, it's recency bias whatever it is you want to call only looking at recent results.

Are you kidding me right now? I've clearly been focusing on the last THREE YEARS. Again, stop being dense. The reason I'm focusing on the past THREE YEARS is that's how long Todd Haley has been the Pit O.C. I don't see the point in trying to project this year based on a totally different offense.

Some people...

Step away from the keyboard. I do think Broadway is just messing with you trying to stir you up. It looks like it worked.

You are correct, the right way to look at Roethlesberger is over the last 3 years (since the offense changed). Going prior to that is pointless for projecting this year.

 

[Freelove]

The bias you see toward Ben isn't because of the relative bump in his recent results. It's because he's the unquestioned starting QB of a team with (arguably) the best WR in football, (arguably) the best RB in football -- who is also an amazing passing game weapon, (arguably) the most exciting young field stretching WR in the game, and an OC who has shown he knows how to (and intends to) maximize all that stuff. You take every team in the league, blow them up, and reassemble the parts at random, and any decent QB that accidentally landed in that situation would (and should) be drafted pretty damn high in the average FF draft.

Ben's scheme and surrounding talent are as good as any QB's in football. It's the fact that his talent is clearly a notch below Luck and Rodgers that keeps him in that second tier.

Ryan's surrounding talent isn't on the same level. That's why he belongs below Ben.

 

[LittlePhatty]

I have to admit I like a gutsy call OP. It's much easier to predict failure because it happens far more often than greatness. So props to the bold prediction.

And if the Falcons D is as bad as last year he might have to throw for 5k to win any games at all.

 

[Freelove]

I have to admit I like a gutsy call OP. It's much easier to predict failure because it happens far more often than greatness. So props to the bold prediction.

And if the Falcons D is as bad as last year...

...then the Quinn hiring will have been a complete disaster. :(

 

[BroadwayG]

Ben YPA under new OC:

2012 - 7.26

2013 - 7.30

2014 - 8.14

What projection method should we use to project Ben's 2015 YPA? Circle One

A) It increased by .84 from '13 to '14 so it's safe to project a similar increase at 8.98 YPA

B) We should forget about 2012 and 2013 and just use 2014 data so it's safe to project him at 8.14 YPA again

C) He's got another year in the system to learn so he's going to get a little better so it's safe to project him a little higher at 8.50 YPA

D) We should use an average so maybe it's safe to project him at 7.56 YPA

E) Remember the games where he had a YPA over 10? If we extrapolate them out to 16 games he should hit over 10 YPA!!!!11!

F) We'll use a weighted average to place more emphasis on recent results 1/6 2012 + 1/3 2013 + 1/2 2014 = 7.7 YPA

Once you come to the logical conclusion that Ben will need to pull a few more 6 TD games out of his backside to approach his numbers from last year which got him to QB6, you'll realize that he's extremely overvalued currently with his QB5 status.

 

[TripItUp]

Ben YPA under new OC:

2012 - 7.26

2013 - 7.30

2014 - 8.14

What projection method should we use to project Ben's 2015 YPA? Circle One

A) It increased by .84 from '13 to '14 so it's safe to project a similar increase at 8.98 YPA

B) We should forget about 2012 and 2013 and just use 2014 data so it's safe to project him at 8.14 YPA again

C) He's got another year in the system to learn so he's going to get a little better so it's safe to project him a little higher at 8.50 YPA

D) We should use an average so maybe it's safe to project him at 7.56 YPA

E) Remember the games where he had a YPA over 10? If we extrapolate them out to 16 games he should hit over 10 YPA!!!!11!

F) We'll use a weighted average to place more emphasis on recent results 1/6 2012 + 1/3 2013 + 1/2 2014 = 7.7 YPA

Once you come to the logical conclusion that Ben will need to pull a few more 6 TD games out of his backside to approach his numbers from last year which got him to QB6, you'll realize that he's extremely overvalued currently with his QB5 status.

Not to mention the Steelers have a more difficult passing schedule this year. Sell high on Big Ben!

 

[L_O_D]

Matt Ryan’s yards per completion is pretty consistently between 11 and 12, except 2013. Give him 600 Attempts, He’s going to get about 400 completions for 4500ish yards. Not really different from what he’s been doing right along, and not out of line for a Kyle Shanahan offense.

The upside is in the fact that Matt Ryan is the best QB Kyle Shanahan has ever had, and Kyle Shanahan adapts his offense to suit the players.

Most of Shanahan’s more talented QBs have a yards per completion around 12, but last season Hoyer was at 13.7 on 242 attempts. If Ryan managed that, He’d be looking at 5480 yards…or if Kyle decides to throw more since he’s got more talent at QB/WR than he’s ever had, with 425 attempts@12YPC Matt Ryan ends up at 5100 yards.

Matt Ryan offers a nice floor, along with some upside potential this season.

Great real-life QB, fun to watch, he can ball and they like to throw. He has a great and consistent year-end season total. Have you ever owned the guy? I owned him last year...my league scoring of course (6pt TD) points/Home/Away

38H_14A_29H_27A_19A_15H_14A_20H_16A_16A_20H_25H_40A{Green Bay]_25H_18A_8H. Notice any trends?

On the road, he just can't play for some reason. Every year. Check the data. ATL Dome - usually lights out, but not always. You lose your week if ATL is on the road and you are up against a Top 3-5 QB. And I see 2 big weeks where he might carry you to a W. Only 2. A lot of duds. I mean a lot if duds.

Great real QB. Marginal fantasy QB. Heavy yards. Limited TD's. Buyer beware.

 

[dschuler]

5000 is more likely this season than 4500

 

[rg176bnc]

If Ryan throws for 5k both WRs careers will be over. IMO both are to fragile to handle that kind of work

 

[bostonfred]

Published Fri Aug 21 8:19:00 p.m. ET 2015

(Rotoworld)Matt Ryan completed 4-of-5 passes for 75 yards and a touchdown in the Falcons' second preseason game against the Jets.

Analysis: Ryan has more touchdown passes (2) than incompletions (1) this preseason and has led the Falcons' first-team offense to a touchdown on every drive. Though Ryan could see his volume decrease with OC Kyle Shanahan in town, the defense is bad enough and Julio Jones is good enough for Ryan to remain in the QB1 conversation this season.

 

[georg013]

Did Julio Jones get washed ashore by Revis Island or did he sit this one out?

 

[bigmarc27]

Did Julio Jones get washed ashore by Revis Island or did he sit this one out?

Threw to Julio once in the endzone, Revis got called for the hold for the first down. That was it.

 

[VaTerp]

I definetly remember the Tommy Maddox 5000 yard thread from another site and it was the first thing I thought about.

I like Ryan this year. I think he's been good value the last few years even as O-line issues and injuries have prevented him from reaching his ceiling IMO. ATL could, of course, have those same issues this year but he remains an attractive option for me as long as the price is right.

 

[LittlePhatty]

Good news: Julio

Bad news: Interceptions. Holy crap, there were some bad throws. I think the Eagles dropped an easy third INT, maybe a fourth somewhere in there too.

 

[cr8f]

He's no Marcus Mariota.

 

[SeanTaylor21]

Good news: Julio

Bad news: Interceptions. Holy crap, there were some bad throws. I think the Eagles dropped an easy third INT, maybe a fourth somewhere in there too.

On his interceptions and should have been interceptions, he wasn't even finished with his dropback before having to try and make a play. That offensive line is a downright nightmare and owners have to hope Jake Long will help.

I don't remember him having a good OL ever... makes me wonder what he could be IF he ever has time.

 

[lod01]

Good news: Julio

Bad news: Interceptions. Holy crap, there were some bad throws. I think the Eagles dropped an easy third INT, maybe a fourth somewhere in there too.

On his interceptions and should have been interceptions, he wasn't even finished with his dropback before having to try and make a play. That offensive line is a downright nightmare and owners have to hope Jake Long will help.

I don't remember him having a good OL ever... makes me wonder what he could be IF he ever has time.

He went into last season with a very good OL coached by Mike Tice, then 4/5th got hurt and they picked up bums off the street. Tice worked wonders with them but he's gone now. I think they cut some of those guys without a real plan. Long should step right in. No idea why he is even unemployed....other than injuries and teams not wanting to guarantee a contract.

 

[iamkoza]

He's a low end qb1, just like the last several years. I don't see any reason to move him up out down the qb rankings based on Monday night

 

[Manster]

Good news: Julio

Bad news: Interceptions. Holy crap, there were some bad throws. I think the Eagles dropped an easy third INT, maybe a fourth somewhere in there too.

On his interceptions and should have been interceptions, he wasn't even finished with his dropback before having to try and make a play. That offensive line is a downright nightmare and owners have to hope Jake Long will help.

I don't remember him having a good OL ever... makes me wonder what he could be IF he ever has time.

They sure ran the ball effectively monday though.....maybe more about eagles defense though, I dunno.

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

Matt Ryan completed 24-of-36 passes for 285 yards and two touchdowns in the Falcons' Week 3 win over Dallas.

Ryan locked on to Julio Jones all game, targeting him 20 times. He led the Falcons to 25 unanswered points after falling behind early, with both of his touchdowns going to Jones in the second half. Ryan now has 946 yards and a 5:2 TD/INT ratio through three games. He’ll be a low-end QB1 for Week 4.

Sep 27 - 4:15 PM

 

[BroadwayG]

Matt Ryan comfortably sitting at QB8. Ben R getting set for another long session hooked up to the extrapolation machine.

 

[Meatwad Reloaded]

Their offense will start kicking into gear soon and I think we will be seeing some nice numbers from our friend MattyIce from here on out.

 

[Faust]

The golden age of Matt Ryan:

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/13811979/matt-ryan-30-just-entering-prime-nfl

 

[Faust]

Falcons QB Ryan 4th-youngest to 30,000 yards

 

[RBM]

Pretty bad today. Never seen an o line with such a drastic difference in pass blocking against run blocking.

 

[Chaka]

Really remarkable how pedestrian the passing game looks so far this season. I hold out hope that with the way Freeman is performing that defenses will have to loosen up a little in their focus on JJ and maybe things will open up in the second half. But I don't know how anyone cannot be disappointed with Ryan from a fantasy perspective. Frankly I am a little disappointed with JJ too. He is on pace for some huge numbers (133 catches, 1,668 yards & 11 TDs) but he's really tapered off from that ridiculous 3 game start to open the season and his 3 games prior to yesterday must have been a huge drought for his fantasy owners. Is it a health issue or are defenses so keyed on stopping him and the Falcons other WR/TEs so limited that he is just unable to overcome it?

 

[lod01]

Pretty bad today. Never seen an o line with such a drastic difference in pass blocking against run blocking.

Now we have. Atrocious pass blocking and Ryan with 90 targets to Julio already. A true 3 down TE would really work wonders but the previous regime was so awful, they missed numerous opportunities to upgrade.

They really need to get Hardy in to get mix.

 

[LittlePhatty]

2,002 yards but only 9 TDs through 7 games. And the INTs aren't helping of course.

This is exactly how it was last year too, but for some reason I thought it would change this year.

 

[Sabertooth]

Ryan out

Cutler in

 

[Van Dyman]

Ryan out

Cutler in

Interesting. I was considering buying low on Ryan...either that or grabbing Cutler off the wire. Romo owner.

 

[ratbast]

2,002 yards but only 9 TDs through 7 games. And the INTs aren't helping of course.

This is exactly how it was last year too, but for some reason I thought it would change this year.

Didnt it change last year? Im stuck with him and riding the lows. Hoping for a rebound. Im counting on Freeman wearing down and his wrs getting healthy.

 

[(HULK)]

I might cut him when he hits the bye.

 

[Faust]

Matt Ryan denies inconsistent play caused by injuries

 

[Andrew74]

I had high hopes for him this year. He was okay last year behind an injury-riddle OL, so I figured with a healthy OL and the continued beasting of Julio he would take that next step. But he's going in the wrong direction and is on my bench (for Brees) until he can put up some consistently good numbers.

 

[Sabertooth]

Matt Ryan denies inconsistent play caused by injuries

So did Luck.

 

[LittlePhatty]

You know that feeling you get when your starting QB is on a bye, and it's actually a relief because you finally have the best reason of all to send his under-performing ### to the bench?

 

[Chaka]

You know that feeling you get when your starting QB is on a bye, and it's actually a relief because you finally have the best reason of all to send his under-performing ### to the bench?

He's my highest rated QB and I benched him for Eli and Tyrod Taylor twice so far this season, and have been trying to dish him for weeks.

 

[lod01]

He's playing like a rookie. Watching replays, he flat out locks onto the primary receiver. Is there someone on that coaching staff that can let him know how awful he looks?

 

[LittlePhatty]

They probably would have won if he'd just completely stopped passing after that 3rd TD.

 

[Chaka]

He's playing like a rookie. Watching replays, he flat out locks onto the primary receiver. Is there someone on that coaching staff that can let him know how awful he looks?

Isn't Shanahan supposed to be some kind of passing game genius?

 

[iamkoza]

He's playing like a rookie. Watching replays, he flat out locks onto the primary receiver. Is there someone on that coaching staff that can let him know how awful he looks?

Isn't Shanahan supposed to be some kind of passing game genius?

he can't make scrubs and broken down old guys like roddy white/tamme/hankerson all of a sudden good at football...?

 

[lod001]

He's playing like a rookie. Watching replays, he flat out locks onto the primary receiver. Is there someone on that coaching staff that can let him know how awful he looks?

Isn't Shanahan supposed to be some kind of passing game genius?

he can't make scrubs and broken down old guys like roddy white/tamme/hankerson all of a sudden good at football...?

Hankerson is terrible, Roddy is toast and has no separation anymore and the team has ignored TE's for the last 4 drafts, but man, that play action stupidity from the endzone was inexcusable. Ryan just spun around did not scan the field even though he had time to. There was no pressure and he fired the ball towards a tightly covered Tamme and the LB dropped back and it hit him right in the numbers. Even if the LB follows Coleman, Tamme had no chance to catch the pass. The call was awful and the execution was even more so.

 

[Faust]

Arthur Blank, Dan Quinn voice support for Matt Ryan amid slide

 

[lod01]

Arthur Blank, Dan Quinn voice support for Matt Ryan amid slide

......It's starts with me,'' Ryan said. "I've got to be better in terms of decision-making.

He says this every week now. He should just record it and skip the actual interview. Just turn the recorder on and leave the podium. Shanahan sucks balls.

 

[RBM]

Starting to really hate this guy.

 

[LittlePhatty]

Same story every week it seems. Lots of yards, maybe 1 TD, and 3 INTs and/or fumbles.

 

[Andrew74]

Just think how awesome Julio would be if Ryan was just decent. #### you, Matt.