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QB Patrick Mahomes II, KC (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
I-ROK
Footballguy
GordonGekko
Footballguy
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Anarchy99
Footballguy
And you are underestimating just how much a team could roster with $40+ million. Yes, Mahomes will be better than Lamar, Kyler, or the next Deshaun. But that team could also have Aaron Donald, DeAndre Hopkins, and someone else on top of it. That was what I was driving at . . . not just comparing QBs.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
It works both ways. The team with the Uber expensive QB will need to do really well drafting to fill up the team. And other teams will need to draft well to find the next big thing at QB. Either way, if a team can’t draft they won’t go far. Unless they are NE.
rockaction
Footballguy
To those saying it's team-friendly: How much land does one man need?
He's more than set for life. He's on his way to being somebody who could be involved in partial ownership, if that's the measuring stick.
Good work all around. Tying it to the cap assumes the cap trends upwards. As one person pointed out, in this pandemic, nothing is certain. There may be more uncertainties to come. Better to get the money now.
He's more than set for life. He's on his way to being somebody who could be involved in partial ownership, if that's the measuring stick.
Good work all around. Tying it to the cap assumes the cap trends upwards. As one person pointed out, in this pandemic, nothing is certain. There may be more uncertainties to come. Better to get the money now.
wgoldsph
Footballguy
With the increase in cap four years from now he'll cost as much as the next big thing and be an even better player than he is right now. This deal might cause some cap strain, sure, but you're getting the best current qb who's started his career on a historical pace, in his 3rd year in the league. Ten years of a Marino/Manning/Farve combo at qb is worth the price.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
Seems like a smart deal for KC actually. Only $10M as a signing bonus, small annual salaries and really big roster bonuses each year. It basically turns into one year deals that would leave very little dead cap space if they cut him. As is, it looks like 2027 could be the big decision year: a $49M roster bonus due that year.
They’ll still find it hard to maintain a Super Bowl team giving 20% of their cap to one player each year IMO, but paying him that much was going to happen anyway so I think they seem to have done a good job protecting themselves long term while also locking up Mahomes. And Mahomes made sure he’ll get paid boatloads assuming his play doesn’t fall off a cliff.
They’ll still find it hard to maintain a Super Bowl team giving 20% of their cap to one player each year IMO, but paying him that much was going to happen anyway so I think they seem to have done a good job protecting themselves long term while also locking up Mahomes. And Mahomes made sure he’ll get paid boatloads assuming his play doesn’t fall off a cliff.
GordonGekko
Footballguy
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The Frankman
Footballguy
Truebluey
Footballguy
Yes it will be interesting to see. Only 200 yards tonight. I could see Dak having a much better year, but it's way early to say.
And unless KC cleans up its run blocking inside the 5, they are gonna need Mahomes to throw to get it in the end zone.
LawFitz
Footballguy
KC D did a fairly solid job through 3 qts tonight, until garbage time hit.
That's now a trend that dates back through the NFL playoffs last year and the latter part of last regular season. They probably aren't a top 10 unit, but if they can hover around average or better, it may limit Myhomie from justifying his ADP price, especially if their running game performs. That said, CEH looked soft at the goal line. Maybe just first game jitters. Maybe not.
Milkman
Footballguy
Yeah running issues at the GL might help but another problem is they are going to kill everybody. So unless they are going to start running up scores similar to the 2007 Patriots he simply won't need to throw that much.
Wigglytuff's Gruff
Footballguy
He doesn't need to throw very much.
Still gonna have nearly 400 ff points if he scores like he did tonight every game.
Still gonna have nearly 400 ff points if he scores like he did tonight every game.
The Frankman
Footballguy
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Truebluey
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
And Dak and Allen. Russ -- and the four other guys -- have come out on fire, the other four guys especially relatively to passing QBs in standard 4 pt. pass touchdown leagues where that extra six is golden for the running QB. Russ was extraordinarily mobile, but I no longer think of his rushing prowess when considering him. Might be that time in his career, though I can't tell because he seems pretty comfy in the pocket.Which may be, like, 200 points less than Russ, Kyler and Cam.
But back to the topic of the thread. Mahomes rushed for over fifty yards yesterday when everything broke down -- the LA Chargers have a mighty good defense that flummoxed Joe Burrow the week before last and now Mahomes this one.
I'm heavily invested in Mahomes. I'd rather he stay injury-free than have to rush the ball often, much like Wilson. For standard fantasy, those two aren't quite as valuable season-long as the runners, but they're still up there and passable.
One thing to watch: The way the Chiefs dynamic is going, I'm not sure how good their receiving corps is sans Watkins. It's really a bunch of unproven guys with speed. You could almost see the defense keying on CEH out of the backfield, as if that were a focal point of this past game. This sort of development (not great receivers available and CEH's being keyed-on) doesn't bode well for either Mahomes or CEH in fantasy right now, especially the receivers and Mahomes. It's always better if you're surrounded by guys like Lamb, Gallup, and Cooper than Hill, Robinson, Hardman. Game plans vary from week-to-week, though, and who knows what other defenses have in store for Patrick and the passing game.
He still has Kelce, too, but teams are likely to double both Kelce and Hill and let the rest of the defense play one-on-one with the others.
Regardless, I have Mahomes on a dynasty team and in redraft on one team in Superflex. I'm giving him a long, long leash before officially wondering what's up. He hasn't been anything close to bad the first two games. That said, I'd pass on him in the first or second of redraft standards for these reasons listed above.
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Truebluey
Footballguy
Very nice analysis Rockaction. Pretty much my thoughts exactly, and yes, their receiving corps doesn't inspire much trepidation.
CEH is an interesting factor here. Defenses can't double both Kelce and Hill and also bracket CEH, so CEH out of the backfield receiving is likely to be used often. As it was during Sunday's comeback. He made some nice catches, including a beauty for 25 yards in contested coverage that was wiped out by a holding call.
Also a lot depends on gamescript. I still don't see the Chiefs trailing a lot, which also minimizes Mahomes passing potential.
In short, he's got one of the most reliable floors of any QB, but you likely greatly overpaid to get him this year, given that a Minshew/streaming combo will likely give you similar points.
CEH is an interesting factor here. Defenses can't double both Kelce and Hill and also bracket CEH, so CEH out of the backfield receiving is likely to be used often. As it was during Sunday's comeback. He made some nice catches, including a beauty for 25 yards in contested coverage that was wiped out by a holding call.
Also a lot depends on gamescript. I still don't see the Chiefs trailing a lot, which also minimizes Mahomes passing potential.
In short, he's got one of the most reliable floors of any QB, but you likely greatly overpaid to get him this year, given that a Minshew/streaming combo will likely give you similar points.
lardonastick
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
TLEF316
Footballguy
Took Mahomes at 3.5 and although he obviously hasn't been bad, I am regretting it. VBD had him and Jackson as the clear top choices at this point but considering how far the next tier of guys fell (and how well they're doing) its clear I made a mistake.
I probably would have taken Mike Evans ) and the taken a QB in the 7th.
So I could have had Evans and Russell Wilson instead of Mahomes and Cooks.
Told myself going in that I wouldn't take a QB early. But I love watching the guy play (and he got me to the finals last year) and DD said it was a good move. So I pulled the trigger. I'll know better next year.
I probably would have taken Mike Evans ) and the taken a QB in the 7th.
So I could have had Evans and Russell Wilson instead of Mahomes and Cooks.
Told myself going in that I wouldn't take a QB early. But I love watching the guy play (and he got me to the finals last year) and DD said it was a good move. So I pulled the trigger. I'll know better next year.
rockaction
Footballguy
I still think he's extravagantly priced in dynasty. He's like QB11 right now, and one, according to trade calcs, should expect at least a first round pick in return, probably plus something else worthy. He's basically ranked as QB1, but I don't see enough rushing yards to sustain dominance. Plus, like upthread, Chiefs receivers outside of Tyreek aren't really that good once you get past the speed aspect (which you can never really totally do, but still...)
But to your point: I would not take him in standard redraft. I'd pass and let everybody else have him at that ADP. I did take him first-round Superflex, but his VBD was in line with my pick and floor is so important in the league I'm in for that.
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Truebluey
Footballguy
That's my feeling also. Although I clearly made a mistake in the one league I took him early in, it IS fun to have him for once (never have before) and take pure, unadulterated joy out of every amazing play he makes. Although I am sure Russ owners feel the same way this year.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
What are people worried about? He had a down week 1, but he scored 29 in my format this week and we know the ceiling goes higher. I guess it’s different if you overdrafted in redraft, but as a dynasty owner it’s smooth sailing.
rockaction
Footballguy
I don't think anybody is worried. But I get the sneaking suspicion that he's probably just not necessarily QB1 in dynasty scoring like all the publications have him. He's worth a high first according to them. That's tough in 1 QB leagues to be that valuable. *shrugs* Least that's what I was trying to convey.
The Frankman
Footballguy
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Craig_MiamiFL
Footballguy
Congrats on the soon to be father!
https://twitter.com/JortsEthan/status/1311081579985461248/photo/1
https://twitter.com/JortsEthan/status/1311081579985461248/photo/1
rockaction
Footballguy
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
Half a billion to hand it off and keep the other team in the game.....Reid let BB get in his head and played conservative....no swag...too many handoffs early in downs.....and then “needing” to get a conversion on third.....need to let Mahomes eat on early downs...
