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QB Russell Wilson, NYG (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter ImTheScientist
- Start date
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
NFL Player news | Broncos 'tailoring' offense around Russell Wilson
"They are tailoring things around him...
...departure from how Seattle's offense ... Pete Carroll emphasized a conservative, run-based system...
... emphasize rolling pockets and deep shots while de-emphasizing the intermediate throws that Wilson has struggled
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Pat Thorman@Pat_Thorman
This quote from Russ after the 2020 season gives a good idea of what tailoring the offense will look like.
LINK to quote from Wilson
"They are tailoring things around him...
...departure from how Seattle's offense ... Pete Carroll emphasized a conservative, run-based system...
... emphasize rolling pockets and deep shots while de-emphasizing the intermediate throws that Wilson has struggled
---------------------------------------------
Pat Thorman@Pat_Thorman
This quote from Russ after the 2020 season gives a good idea of what tailoring the offense will look like.
LINK to quote from Wilson
It is short and intermediate routes that move the chains and eat up the clock. Wilson's deep shots resulted in 1) quick scores, 2) incomplete passes ultimately resulting in turning the ball over on downs, and 3) interceptions. Seattle was last in the NFL in time of possession a full 2 mins and 4 sec behind the 31st worst team. The next closest gap between teams was 30 seconds. Wilson's failure to succeed in short and intermediate routes left Seattle's defense on the field way too long.
It has been suggested the Wilson's failure to succeed with the shorter routes is due to his height, or lack there of, and inability to spot open receivers. Opposing teams have noted Wilson's successes and failures and have adapted to take away his successes. "Rolling pockets and deep shots" are just more of the same.
If Wilson is able to succeed, it will be because of Denver's ability to run the ball which opens the RPO.
Being a short QB has to have an effect on the ability to hit some of the over the middle shorter routes. Kyler Murray is constantly back peddling to see over the line.
Russ has a better running game, better offensive line and a more offensive minded coach. Both RB’s are excellent receivers. He will always prefer the deep ball because of his ability to extend plays and then drop it in the bucket.
I feel confident he can extend drives more often than in Seattle given his new surroundings.
Seattle's O-line was ranked well below average largely because Wilson held onto the ball so long. I've seen a few metrics that suggest Seattle's O-line was comparable with Denver's O-line. Seattle's WRs, at least the top two, are as good or better than Denver's. As a forever Seattle fan, I'll be watching with great interest, whether Wilson can recapture his past magic. He's a fine person and no one works harder, but his legs are older, and I think his best days are behind him. I'll be rooting for him, but I have my doubts that he can achieve the results Denver fans are anticipating.
I bet you could argue in some ways Russ made the line look better. He had one of the highest pressure rates in the NFL. Duane Brown had his worst year since he was a rookie. Coming into this year the Hawks are predicted to be the worst O line. Denver is ranked middle of the pack with a good chance to take a step forward.
I remember when people were saying Brady’s best days were behind him about ten years ago. I think Russ is rejuvenated and should have a solid year. He’s not gonna run for 800 yards but he can still maneuver in the pocket just fine. The Broncos just need a professional QB.
The Hawks have the better WR duo for sure. Sutton and Jeudy are hoping to be unlocked by Russ.. Patrick and Albert O are both very solid as well.
Tau837
Footballguy
But how much of this is because Seattle's top 2 played mostly with Wilson at QB, and Denver's top 2 played mostly with Bridgewater, Lock, and Flacco? I expect multiple Denver receivers to have career years this season. I don't expect any Seattle receiver to have a career year.
There is no easy way to prove or disprove this. There is no question Wilson himself contributed to sacks, but I think there is also very little question that the Seahawks (Carroll and Schneider) under-prioritized OL and it contributed. It is also true that the Seahawks offense called more longer developing pass plays than most teams, which also contributed.
Over the past 5 years, per PFF, Wilson was sacked 234 times, and 64 of those were his fault. That is an average of about 13 sacks per year that were his fault, and about 34 per year that were not his fault. In 2021, the average team gave up 39 sacks, and every QB bears responsibility for some of the sacks his team gave up. Without doing a deeper analysis, it doesn't seem likely that Wilson is the primary reason the Seahawks OL has been generally viewed as bad at pass protection over the past several years. And, of course, while he may have held the ball or run into ~13 sacks per year while trying to make plays, he made a lot of big plays, and I am quite certain the calculus on it works out in the team's favor.
TripItUp
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Tau837
Footballguy
Be careful what you wish for. He is the best QB in the franchise's 46 year history. You might not have another QB as good as Wilson for 20+ years... maybe never.
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He's been in the league 10 yrs, and here are his sack % rankings: 5, 4, 5, 2, 12, 6, 5, 9, 1, 10.
But, on the flip side, he hasn't been below 13th in adjusted net yards per pass attempt. What does this mean to me? Sure, he gives up sacks, but he makes up for it with limited INT's and a decent amount of TD's. His 6.2 TD% and 1.8 INT% stands up against the best QB's in the league.
I wonder if he will finally finish outside the top 12 in sack % with DEN?
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Dacomish
Footballguy
Where this is true, I can see PH's stance - he made it very apparent he wouldn't resign and wanted out, thus getting some decent value for him rather than getting nothing is still worth seeing him go.
Do I wish we had him to compete this year - of course, but I also have resigned myself that this will be a lean year and not got my expectations I had for the last 10. I actually hope they can get a decent QB in the draft next year and build around them.
Is what it is....
No question the Seahawks had a great run with Wilson. His escapability allowed WRs to get open deep. His legs aren't what they used to be and his ability to buy time has diminished. He has never been proficient at moving the chains with short and intermediate passes. Is that because of his short stature or his love of the deep ball? Seahawks were last in time of possession in the NFL by a full 2 minutes.
Everyone is pointing the finger at Pete Carroll for the Wilson's failures the last 1 and 1/2 years. They may be right, but 2022 will answer the question of whose to blame for the Seahawks recent failures.
Tau837
Footballguy
IMO the Seahawks effectively chose an aging Carroll with an outdated philosophy over Wilson. I don't just mean this past offseason. They should have moved on from Carroll after the 2017 season when it became evident that the years of historically elite defense were over. They should have committed to a younger coach with a philosophy better suited to the modern NFL.
But, failing that, they certainly should have moved on from Carroll since then when it became apparent that a choice was needed between Wilson and Carroll. I think the team could have salvaged its relationship with Wilson and kept him as a career-long Seahawk. I expect the next 7 or so seasons to yield worse results without Wilson than they would have with him. Probably much worse.
I've no sources, just the local radio talk, but it has been said that Wilson got special treatment from the coaching staff and that the players were not at all pleased with Wilson's my way or I'm out of here attitude. Again from radio talk (710 KIRO), players saw Wilson as being phony and only caring about his public image. This is not the Wilson we had come to know, and perhaps there are some sour grapes, but a few players, at least, were glad to see Wilson move on.
Tau837
Footballguy
I doubt there is much substance there, but, regardless, I stand by my take. The Seahawks will have to get pretty lucky to find a QB of his caliber in the foreseeable future.
I hope Wilson has a successful stint in Denver, and I'll be rooting for him, but from a fantasy standpoint, I won't be investing in him at his current ADP. His game is not necessarily one that will age well. It was his elusiveness that allowed him to buy time and find receivers deep. Watching him, his legs are just not as quick as before. During his prime he was in the same fantasy tier as Brady, Brees, Rodgers, and Manning. Those QBs are all primarily pocket passers and that allows/allowed them to play deep into their 30's and in the case of Brees and Brady into their 40's. Wilson is not a pocket passer and because his legs are aging, I believe he is being over hyped. Denver, IMO, can have success if they emphasize the run and mix in the RPO. Wilson can have success as well that way, but from what I've heard from Denver, is that Wilson is dictating the offense. That is something that Manning and Brady had/have earned the right to do. Wilson has not earned that right IMO.
habsfan
Footballguy
This dovetails with the discussion about Seattle's diminishing o-line over the past number of years. Problems are always more nuanced than a simple "it's Wilson" or "it's the o-line". I think the problem is that they had a dominant defence + healthy Lynch (then Carson) + Wilson who could compensate for a subpar o-line and over time they aged and lost pieces and simply couldn't / didn't "restock" well enough to avoid the typical life cycle of "Super Bowl calibre team to rebuild" that many teams go through.
Boring take but I think Wilson is still very good and he's very clearly on Father Time's watch list.
Russ is going in the 8th round in my drafts. If he was going in the 6th I’d say no thanks but the 8th is easy money. He’s not gonna run for 800 yards again but he could get 3-400. I think he has plenty of escape ability left. He’s motivated and has plenty of weapons. The Broncos will be playing in plenty of high scoring games.He reminds me of Brady from last year going in the 8th. You talk about easy money.
Sign me up!
Manster
Footballguy
I agree
with this. Russ Wilson is going to thrive in Denver. Seattle is much worse off, and it will be very apparent on the field. Franchise QB's of Wilsons caliber are unicorns.
Tau837
Footballguy
This part of your post applies to how Wilson handles being under pressure.
In 2020, among 30 QBs graded by PFF who had at least 100 dropbacks under pressure, here is how Wilson performed:
- #4 in overall grade
- #3 in passing grade
- #10 in rushing grade
- #2 in big time throw percentage
- #8 in turnover worthy play percentage
- #5 in adjusted completion percentage
- #5 in yards per attempt
- #1 in passing TDs
- #2 in passing first downs
- #3 in NFL passer rating
- #4 in average depth of target
You say this as if his prime is past. I disagree that any QB who is gifted with the level of talent Wilson has and works as hard as he is known to work is past his prime at age 33. Like all QBs who play long NFL careers, no doubt some of his physical talent will erode, but that is made up for by improving in the mental aspect of the game, reading defenses, etc.
Your take completely ignores any advantage Wilson will gain by moving from the most conservative offensive philosophy in the NFL (Carroll) to an offensive-minded head coach who intends to #LetRussCook. I think that will be positively impactful.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I have one league member that moved to Boulder and has adopted all the Denver teams so I’m worried about him but my goal is to get Wilson in Round 8/9.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I disagree on the point that Wilson hasn’t earned the right to dictate the offense. There’s only so many elite QBs in the NFL and more teams should do whatever it takes to get one.
https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/09/07/seattle-seahawks-dismantling-rift-russell-wilson-pete-carroll
Here is a link to a 2018 article that describes the Seattle looker room and the relationship between Wilson and many of his team mates. There was no honeymoon in the locker room, but some of what is described here probably exists to some degree in every locker room.
In 2020 Pete Carroll "let Russ cook". Wilson was the hottest fantasy QB in the league for the first 8 games. After that opposing teams started taking away the deep ball. Wilson either couldn't (short of stature) or wouldn't look for the short or intermediate pass. He either failed to see the wide open receiver or choose not to make the short pass or intermediate pass and looked for the long ball. I watched this time and time again. His drives never ate the clock. Either the Hawks scored quickly, turned the ball over quickly due to a long incompletion on 1st and 10, or turned the ball over via an interception. Our defense was on the field far too long. We used to win the 4th quarter. No more. The Seahawks were in every game last year, but lost in the 4th quarter. Time of possession is so important over a long season.
Denver in 2021 was 8th overall in time of possession. Seattle was 32nd. The total difference in time of possession between the #1 team and the 31st team was 5 minutes and 16 seconds. Seattle was a full 2 minutes and 4 seconds behind the 31st team Jacksonville. Maybe this is unfair, but I blame Russell Wilson for his inability to move the chains and his all or nothing approach.
I've made my case, effectively or not, but as I evaluate the Broncos and Russell Wilson in 2022, I will primarily look at time of possession. I hope the honeymoon lasts and I'm shown to be way of course, but not afraid to take the criticism.
Thanks for listening.
Here is a link to a 2018 article that describes the Seattle looker room and the relationship between Wilson and many of his team mates. There was no honeymoon in the locker room, but some of what is described here probably exists to some degree in every locker room.
In 2020 Pete Carroll "let Russ cook". Wilson was the hottest fantasy QB in the league for the first 8 games. After that opposing teams started taking away the deep ball. Wilson either couldn't (short of stature) or wouldn't look for the short or intermediate pass. He either failed to see the wide open receiver or choose not to make the short pass or intermediate pass and looked for the long ball. I watched this time and time again. His drives never ate the clock. Either the Hawks scored quickly, turned the ball over quickly due to a long incompletion on 1st and 10, or turned the ball over via an interception. Our defense was on the field far too long. We used to win the 4th quarter. No more. The Seahawks were in every game last year, but lost in the 4th quarter. Time of possession is so important over a long season.
Denver in 2021 was 8th overall in time of possession. Seattle was 32nd. The total difference in time of possession between the #1 team and the 31st team was 5 minutes and 16 seconds. Seattle was a full 2 minutes and 4 seconds behind the 31st team Jacksonville. Maybe this is unfair, but I blame Russell Wilson for his inability to move the chains and his all or nothing approach.
I've made my case, effectively or not, but as I evaluate the Broncos and Russell Wilson in 2022, I will primarily look at time of possession. I hope the honeymoon lasts and I'm shown to be way of course, but not afraid to take the criticism.
Thanks for listening.
Tau837
Footballguy
A lot of this falls squarely on Carroll. He chose to let his players behave in a way many coaches would not. Some of it also falls on strong personalities like Richard Sherman. I agree that this probably exists to a degree in many locker rooms, and I think that circumstances empowered by Carroll contributed to this situation getting ugly more publicly than is typical.
You are ignoring facts. Seattle started 5-0 and Russ was cooking. All was good. Then they lost 3 of 4 and Carroll panicked and shut down the cooking, even though the team scored 34 or more points in 3 of those 4 games.
Wilson averaged 37 pass attempts in the first 9 games, then 32 pass attempts in the final 7 games. But it isn't just that:
- He had 28 passing TDs (8.4% TD percentage) in the first 9 games, compared to 12 (5.4%) in the final 7
- He averaged 8.35 YPA in the first 9 games, compared to 6.35 YPA in the final 7 games
Well, you were talking about the last 8 games of 2020 here, and Wilson had 5 interceptions in those games. So "turned the ball over via an interception" doesn't seem to really carry much weight.
Yes, the defense was on the field too long. Because the defense was bad and couldn't get off the field. The Seahawks were:
- #22 in yards allowed
- #26 in first downs allowed
- #27 in 3rd down conversion percentage allowed
- #19 in red zone TD percentage allowed
- #19 in defensive penalties and #21 in defensive penalty yards
- #17 in ending opposing drives with turnovers
Oh, and as for 1st and 10, Wilson was 152/203 (74.9%) for 1754 yards (8.6 YPA), 66 1st downs, 9 TDs, and 3 interceptions on the season in that situation, with a 109.1 NFL passer rating. So I don't think there were too many long incompletions on 1st and 10 that killed drives.
Tau837
Footballguy
By the way, do you expect to win the 4th quarter much without Wilson? Do you expect to be in every game without Wilson? Do you expect to win time of possession without Wilson?
Perhaps it will be instructive to monitor these metrics.
I appreciate your input, that is what these forums are for. You make good points and I'm not here to argue. I'll slink back into my hole, but will be watching Denver from afar. I'll return to this thread mid season ready and willing to admit I was wrong, or happily praise the QB I once thought could do no wrong.
Tau837
Footballguy
I didn't mean to come across negatively, just meaning to present counterpoints. I certainly don't think you need to "slink back to your hole." It is an interesting conversation IMO.
Poor choice of words on my part. I did not find your post to be negative at all and you were merely supporting your point of view and that is why we come here. I recognize I'm in the minority with my opinions about Russell Wilson although far less in the minority within the Seahawk community.
VikingFrog
Footballguy
Odd fantasy perspective that this thread popping to the top made me think about.
People looooove Tyreek and Waddle. But hate Tua.
People like Sutton and Jeudy, but assume Russ is gonna cook.
Something has to give.
Tyreek ADP: 21
Waddle ADP: 43
Sutton ADP: 51
Jeudy ADP: 67
Tua ADP: 125
Wilson ADP: 82
ADPs off a quick Google search on Fantasy Pros.
People looooove Tyreek and Waddle. But hate Tua.
People like Sutton and Jeudy, but assume Russ is gonna cook.
Something has to give.
Tyreek ADP: 21
Waddle ADP: 43
Sutton ADP: 51
Jeudy ADP: 67
Tua ADP: 125
Wilson ADP: 82
ADPs off a quick Google search on Fantasy Pros.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
I'm looking at ADP consensus of 5 sites ppr (from this site)
Tyreek ADP: 24
Waddle ADP: 40
Sutton ADP: 37
Jeudy ADP: 59
Denver has Hamler have no idea who Miami's 3rd receiver is
VikingFrog
Footballguy
What are the QBs ADPs?
Ray Barboni
Footballguy
Big fan of the ‘ballers as well. Even bigger fan of Russ. That said, the actual video of Russ and the “unliiiimted” quote is no doubt corny, borderline :cringe:
Excited to see him unleashed in Denver though. One of my favorite players to watch.
Wilson is 81 (QB10)
Tua 127 (QB 16)
VikingFrog
Footballguy
That’s still a fairly large difference for Russell who has his WRs average rank significantly lower than Tua.
I completely understand the eyeball test going on here. I’m just commenting on the ADP and expectations of the general public.
If Tyreek and Waddle perform to their ADP, Tua has to be a top ten QB.
not sure about that, the guys ahead of him all have potential to have very good seasons and don't see how can put him higher than any of them:
11-15:
Lance
Rodgers
Stafford
Carr
Cousins
VikingFrog
Footballguy
Let me rephrase.
If Waddle and Hill live up to ADP expectations… Tua has to be at least QB10… where Russell is currently ranked.
BoltBacker
Footballguy
Let's use the Clay projections as an example because they are free and we can compare without revealing any FBG paid content:
Hill wr8
Waddle wr17
Wilson wr68
Gesicki te15
Jeudy wr20
Sutton wr24
Hamler wr75
Okwuoingoihsouulnhusue$%#@ te24
This is why it's important to have projections rather than rankings. Clay has Wilson(qb10) and Tua(qb14) closer than most, and even then I think he has some questionable projections to make Wilson that far above Tua. First, he has Wilson with about twice as many rushing yards as Tua and I'm not so sure about that. Then he has Gesicki regressing to te15, lowest he's actually finished since he was a rookie. Then he has Okwu finishing as te24 and his coach has him playing in the 4th quarter of EXHIBITION GAMES because he "needs the work" so I'm not sure where he falls on the den te depth chart at this point.
Personally, I think both Hill/Waddle are being projected and drafted at their ceiling. But I also think Gesicki/Wilson are being projected closer to their floor so the overall MIA team projection isn't all that bad. Unless you think the whole den/Wilson thing isn't going to work and they are still a losing team and forced to pass the ball I'm having a hard time believing all the "Wilson could even finish top 5!" talk. Wilson is going from a losing team that was behind all season with better receivers to a winning team that (many think) will have the lead more often and worse receivers. Clay has Wilson passing for 4088 yards and he has done that before...... three times out of ten pro-bowl caliber seasons. Even if someone was in the minority and thought that Juedy/Sutton are just as good as Hill/Waddle I would argue the gap between Gesicki/Wilson and Okwu/Hamler is much bigger than most people think. I certainly think that gap is larger than Clay thinks it is.
It's not that I'm saying Tua > Wilson, I'm just saying I'd take Tua@~120ish over Wilson@~75ish in almost every draft I'm in.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Hi. I'm the 2021 Season. Actual stats, not projections.
ARIZONA
MINNESOTA
SEATTLE
Always a good idea to check projections and make sure they tie out. In the case of John Clay, they do - quite precisely for receptions, yards, targets, rushing stats. Targets are usually 12-20 unaccounted for, which mirrors IRL stats (throways from out of pocket, or trying to chart where Taylor Heinicke might have been trying to throw it.) Anyway, the popular Clay Projections always reconcile - buyer beware bc not all premium sites are that meticulous.
ARIZONA
- WR18 - top ten guy who was a FF bust bc injuries
- WR32 - meh
- WR45 - older than dirt
- team TE - 21st
- QB4 - legs were a big part of the story, until they weren't
- WR1 - by a country mile, historically an all-time greatest type season
- WR15 - PPG, generally reliable dude but missed almost half the season
- even without the #2 wideout the Rams WRs were 3rd in the league over the last 5 weeks in PPG, the train just kept rolling
- team TE - 27th
- QB11 - amazing szn for a beloved athlete but those darn INTs and pick 6s eh...plus virtually no rushing ability, or close to it.
MINNESOTA
- WR4 - league winner type guy
- WR15 - PPG basis bc he missed 4G per usual, but still a solid WR2 the first 3/4 of your FF season
- team TE - 28th
- QB12 - dafuq man, how can you have two top options and a backend of the starters QB? Math is weird, man
SEATTLE
- WR14 - borderline WR1 manchild beast mode
- WR16 - solid WR2
- team TE - 23rd
- QB13 - of little value in 1 quarterback leagues, probably dead last if this was your guy (& before you say he was hurt, another QB also missed 3 G and finished QB4 PPG & QB10 overall v QB16 for this guy)
Always a good idea to check projections and make sure they tie out. In the case of John Clay, they do - quite precisely for receptions, yards, targets, rushing stats. Targets are usually 12-20 unaccounted for, which mirrors IRL stats (throways from out of pocket, or trying to chart where Taylor Heinicke might have been trying to throw it.) Anyway, the popular Clay Projections always reconcile - buyer beware bc not all premium sites are that meticulous.
