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QB Russell Wilson, PIT (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter ImTheScientist
- Start date
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Never said that was my POV, I downplayed his abilities for a long long time, hard to argue about Russ when he was in a Seattle uniform
Good try GM
pollardsvision
Footballguy
At anything other than a 1-year vet minimum contract, Russ is almost certainly a terrible signing.
But this is as low risk as it gets. They could cut him in training camp because TJ Watt doesn't like the way he dresses and it doesn't matter.
General Malaise
Footballguy
Never said that was my POV, I downplayed his abilities for a long long time, hard to argue about Russ when he was in a Seattle uniform
Good try GM
I was just looking back to when he signed with Denver and this post of your made me chuckle. I don't think there's a person alive who thinks he's a 1st ballot HOF now. It is INCREDIBLY hard to make the NFL HOF and he's not close, IMO. He'll need another SB win at least to get consideration.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
We'll see. Wilson is the 21st highest rated QB based on PFR HOL Monitor Score. Everyone ranked above him is either in or will be in with the only two guys that would spark much discussion being Matt Ryan and Philip Rivers. There are 8 guys rated lower than him already in (plus Eli). Wilson probably isn't a first-ballot lock, but I suspect he will get in.
Godsbrother
Footballguy
I am not sure that many Steelers fans were wishing for Wilson or think he is an elite QB. He should be an upgrade from Pickett, is signed for league minimum, and can be cut at any point if need be with minimal hit against the cap.
There really isn't much downside in the move and the team can use their draft and cap space on other areas of need for at least one year.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
?? He's betting on himself. He's making 40+ million this year.
By taking a one year deal for basically no money counting on Pittsburgh's cap, it gives them (and Russ) the best chance for success, and he can sign a deal next year.
The Steelers got him basically free, but you think he absolutely could not have gotten any guaranteed money for 2025?? Like, not even a couple million?
Yeesh
General Malaise
Footballguy
We'll see. Wilson is the 21st highest rated QB based on PFR HOL Monitor Score. Everyone ranked above him is either in or will be in with the only two guys that would spark much discussion being Matt Ryan and Philip Rivers. There are 8 guys rated lower than him already in (plus Eli). Wilson probably isn't a first-ballot lock, but I suspect he will get in.
The 8 guys rated below him played in a much different era for QBs than he has played in. Voters know that. I also think that with only 1 SB win, it's not enough to offset some of the other knocks against him and his 2022 season will be judged harshly by the voters. Rightfully so, he stunk.
He's also going to be eligible around the same time frame as Aaron Rodgers who will be a 1st ballot HOF. And, to your point, the Matt Ryans, Eli Mannings and Philip Rivers will continue to get nominations which could hurt Wilson. Matt Stafford too might stand in his way.
The average HOFm score for QBs is 108. Wilson is at 88.37 AND TRENDING THE WRONG WAY. I suppose a career resurgence is possible, but going up against Baltimore and Cleveland 4 times.....yeah, good luck, Russ. And, about Ryan and Rivers, they have scores of 106 and 98 respectively. Wilson DOES have the SB and another close loss (which he caused by throwing the pick).
I don't see it for Russ. I FOR SURE don't see 1st ballot.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
IMO, there are too many HOFers. There are several that I never would have inducted into my HOF, so I am in no rush for Russ to get in. That being said, I don't believe HOF Monitor Score ebbs and flows and goes up and down. I believe it's a compilation of points based on a formula . . . meaning that a player accumulates points and does not lose them with poor play. Points are awarded based on things like individual honors and awards, championships, and career totals. Even a mediocre Wilson will continue to accumulate more points the longer he plays. If he plays a couple more seasons, he will likely pass the 4 guys in front of him on the HOF Monitor Score list. Even with a losing record with the Broncos, he still has a .614 career winning percentage as a starter. I don't think he really needs to do much more other than play another 2-3 years . . . and he might not even need that to get in.
General Malaise
Footballguy
Interesting. I was not familiar with this score until today, but I find it odd that Wilson could have 2-3 more dismal years and it won't impact his score? That's dumb. You have to take the good with the bad, which is PROBABLY going to be an issue for Eli next year.
They take only 5 modern era candidates. That's not a lot of spots for a lot of really good eligible players and it's creating a logjam that's only going to get more congested. Antonio Gates, Reggie Wayne, Torry Holt just to name a few.....they're waiting to get in. You think Russ leapfrogs them? I don't buy it; not unless he finds a way to recreate the magic under an OC who just got fired for failing to utilize some of the best young talent in the NFL.
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Leeroy Jenkins
Footballguy
Cutting him and his $1.2MM salary isn't a big deal. Not like this team has won a playoff game since 2016. It is 100% worth the gamble, especially given that Pickett just is a bust.
I agree with this. He’s easily worth a backup pay of $10MM next year so he didn’t like whatever 25 offers were and said I’ll be back next spring to take the bags.
Tau837
Footballguy
Look at it like this.
- In the past 6 HOF classes, only 1 QB has been inducted - Peyton in the class of 2021.
- We should expect Eli, Brees, and Roethlisberger to each get in within 1-2 years of becoming eligible in the classes of 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively.
- Brady will be a first ballot inductee in the class of 2028.
- We should expect Rodgers to get in first ballot whenever he retires... that means class of 2030 or later.
- IMO Rivers will get in, but who knows how long it will take after he becomes eligible in the class of 2026.
Then Wilson will likely become eligible sometime around the class of 2033 or later. Then it will be a number of years before the likes of Mahomes, Jackson, Allen, et al. will become eligible. IMO the timing makes it more likely Wilson will make it. The only QB I didn't name above who might contend for a non-senior spot in a similar timeframe as Wilson would be Stafford (assuming Ryan is out), but Wilson is more worthy than Stafford.
As of today, Wilson's resume includes (all statistics regular season only unless otherwise noted):
- 2020 Walter Payton MOY
- 3 top 4 finishes in OPOY
- 2nd team All Pro in 2019
- 9 Pro Bowls
- #5 in consecutive games started (QBs only)
- #19 in career passes completed
- #20 in career passes attempted
- #20 in career completion percentage
- #19 in career passing yards
- #14 in career YPA
- #14 in career total offense
- #134 in career rushing yards (all positions)
- #3 in career rushing yards (QBs only)
- #3 in career rushing yards, postseason (QBs only)
- #5 in career yards per rushing attempt (all positions)
- #13 in career TD passes
- #15 in career TD percentage
- #8 in career interception percentage
- #4 in career NFL passer rating
- #10 in career game winning drives
- #9 in career comebacks
- Made 2 Super Bowls, won 1
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Forget stats for a minute. How many years was he even the best player on his own team? When he WAS the best player….how successful was the team?
Tau837
Footballguy
How many years was Eli the best player on his own team? Seems like a question HOF voters rarely (if ever) ask themselves.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
I don’t think Eli belongs in the HOF either
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
With regards to the Hall of Fame, I think the narrative works against Wilson at this point more than any stats work in his favor. I think he needs a resurgence and a return to be really good/great again to give himself a real chance. Fair or not, I think many are now forgetting just how good he really was for close to a decade in Seattle, plus many foolishly think that he was just along for the ride when they won the Super Bowl (the Legion of Boom gets most of the credit). Even when talking about their offense, Marshawn Lynch seemingly gets more credit for it than Wilson. I don't think he's getting in without somewhat of a return to form.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
Saw on social media today. If Wilson plays well . . . "Steel got it!"
fred_1_15301
Footballguy
If Russ is back to old Russ, I will gladly take whatever cheesy catch phrases come with him.
“Steeler country, let’s smelt”
I doubt it.
When Russ signed he figured he had to “compete” with Kenny? So now he “competes” with Fields right?
In either scenario Pickett/Fields only play if Russ gets hurt, Russ stinks, or Steelers feel they’re out of it.
IMO nothing changes for Russ.
5-ish Finkle
Footballguy
This.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Russ is now the back up in Pittsburgh
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Except that Fields has significantly more upside than Pickett. Which should make him more of a threat to Russ’ job security, if he even has any.
JoeSteeler
Footballguy
From what I read Fields has been told he will be the backup. Of course if Wilson is bad, Fields will get a chance.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
With every 2nd QB signed so far this statement has come out by the team. It’s a canned PR thing, and I believe it’s meaningless.
JoeSteeler
Footballguy
I guess it’s possible but this is coming from a Pittsburgh reporter.
5-ish Finkle
Footballguy
WHICH Pittsburgh reporter? If it's Dulac, he basically reports whatever the team tells him to. The team could tell him to report the sky was green, and he'd do it.
None of that matters anyway, really. As Steelers fans are well aware, Mike Tomlin is Mike Tomlin. Wilson's signing is a total "Tomlin" move. He's done this before: Former megastar, veteran QB needs an opportunity to "reboot"/extend his career, in hopes he catches lightning in a bottle. It didn't work with Vick (and was a touch different since they still had a productive (but oft injured) Ben at the time), but that was certainly the hope. All local honks back then basically confirmed that Tomlin was the heavy, heavy impetus behind that signing, not Kevin Colbert.
In Coach T/the Steelers' minds, it probably amounts to nothing more than this: "We want a playoff win. Now." If Wilson pops and gets them one and then leaves, the team benefits (comp picks, etc) and has Fields (whom Tomlin has an absolute "lust" for) to turn to in a year. If Wilson sucks, same outcome. If Wilson pops and gets them a playoff win and they decide to retain him for the remainder of his career, they have an asset in Fields that they could move for other assets if they chose to. I am not saying I agree with any of this. I am merely stating I think this is where THEY are coming from.
The only way Fields plays more than 50% of the snaps this season, in my mind at least, is due to a Russ injury. They'll give up less compensation if he doesn't, so they have a motivation to limit his playing time baked into the scenario already. He's probably going to get some packages in the RZ/etc, but if Russ stays healthy? Fields remains #2. Tomlin looked like a ****ing butcher's dog the day they had the presser to announce they signed Russ. He wants Wilson to start this year, make no mistake.
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Stoneworker
Footballguy
The Steelers aren't going to pick up Fields' $25mm 5th year option, because that would limit their future flexibility vis-a-vis Wilson. So both Fields and Wilson will be free agents in 2025.
If Wilson "pops and gets a playoff win and the Steelers decide to retain him," then there is no way Fields stays. He's young and will leave for greener pastures. He won't be "an asset the Steelers can move for other assets."
Assuming no injuries and decent on-field performance, whichever QB finishes 2024 as the starter will get a new contract for 2025 and beyond.
The other guy is gone because he won't want to sign a contract to be a backup with the same team that just benched him.
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Not sure how anyone can possibly say this.
It's also coming from Tomlin's mouth.
I've watched a lot of Russel Wilson the last two years.
This is a real possibility and the worst thing that could happen for the Steelers. The Steelers won a decent amount of games last year with terrible QB's. They will certainly win games this year as well. If I'm a Steelers fan I would hope to commit to Fields long term or neither of these guy's.
5-ish Finkle
Footballguy
This is accurate, as I forgot about JFs contract. Its early here.
The rest i'll stand by. Tomlin wants Russ starting in '24 if he's not hurt.
And yeah, come 2025 only one guy is on the team, clearly. Likely Fields, since I dont think their offense is getting them the playoff win Rooney covets regardless of who the QB is.
So have the Steelers and I've watched a lot of both of them.
cdclopper
Footballguy
Yeah but how much justin fields have you watched?
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Best shape of his life SNZ is upon us.
My observation of Russ the last 2 years. • 2023 was better than 2022, but that’s a very low bar.
• Russ was great when he had escapability & could extend plays.
• Russ can’t run like that any more.
• Russ is slower than many/most of the LB & DE chasing him now.
• Russ isn’t a great pocket passer.
Verdict: Russ can’t cook.
Fields will get a chance this year.
(TheHuddle) Pittsburgh Steelers QB Russell Wilson - then with the Denver Broncos - finished with the fourth-lowest bad throw percentage in the league among qualified passers at 13.2%, according to Pro Football Reference. Analysis: Wilson may not have been a fit in head coach Sean Payton's offense - or Denver, for that matter - but the bad-throw percentage and number of bad throws (55) were at their lowest since at least 2018. Now in Pittsburgh and in a run-based offense that will likely allow him to improvise more than he could under Payton, it should surprise no one if Wilson bounces back to be a quality QB2 option in 2024.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
tl;dr:
He sucked less. But make no mistake, he did suck.
Root around long enough & you might find a handful of stats that could lead you to believe he’s still starting caliber in the right situation.
Just don’t turn on the tape whilst doing this exercise.
Drake Hater
Footballguy
Russ has never been king of the bad throws, even going back to his college days at NC State and Wisconsin. I don't think this is anything to really pin down and say it points to a potentially good year from him. His weaknesses are elsewhere.
crushedspirit
Footballguy
When a QB throws 27% of his passes behind the line of scrimmage, (highest out of 509 QBs since 2005), and 67% within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage, (2nd highest out of 509 QBs since 2005), you get a former chef who can only cook hot dogs now.
Oh there's more from the source with some 2023 numbers seen here,
https://x.com/SharpFootball/status/1765153034315706614
I expect much the same with more moonballs. He can't throw over the middle so good luck TEs or anyone running routes there. It's Pickens or bust and teams will know that.
***he will feed the backs as well no doubt***
Oh there's more from the source with some 2023 numbers seen here,
https://x.com/SharpFootball/status/1765153034315706614
I expect much the same with more moonballs. He can't throw over the middle so good luck TEs or anyone running routes there. It's Pickens or bust and teams will know that.
***he will feed the backs as well no doubt***
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