(KFFL) Early indications are the Tennessee Titans are leaning toward giving QB Zach Mettenberger a chance to prove himself as the full-time starter rather than using the No. 2 overall pick in the 2015 NFL Draft on Oregon QB Marcus Mariota or Florida State QB Jameis Winston. "We like Zach, and I think Zach has the tools to play and start in the league," general manager Ruston Webster said.
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QB Zach Mettenberger (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Bracie Smathers
- Start date
cstu
Footballguy
"We have no interest in Winston so if Mariota isn't there as we expect then we'll stick with Mettenberger".
msommer
Footballguy
FUBAR
Footballguy
Hoping this is true. Not so much that I think Mettenberger is a future stud as neither of these guys likely are worth the pick and if Mettenberger isn't, next year can yield a better qb.
FUBAR
Footballguy
That's what we want to hear. Don't know he's right, but confidence is good.
Mentioned it in the Hundley thread, but I'm actually hoping the Titans skip on a QB until the late rounds and take a late round flier on Sean Mannion, Chris Bonner or Taylor Heinicke. Bonner in particular is a project with potential.
I don't want Mett and Mariotta.
I do very much like Mett and want him. If they draft Mariotta though, I want to see if a team will give up a good amount for a giant arm that seems like the cheapest QB ever.
A team with cap problems, a team that seems done if their QB gets hurt...I bet there is a suitor that could provide a decent (not great) player in return and fill a hole the Titans have.
I do very much like Mett and want him. If they draft Mariotta though, I want to see if a team will give up a good amount for a giant arm that seems like the cheapest QB ever.
A team with cap problems, a team that seems done if their QB gets hurt...I bet there is a suitor that could provide a decent (not great) player in return and fill a hole the Titans have.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I felt the same way about him as a prospect.
With all the quality weapons he had to work with, he really didn't do a whole lot with that. Watching the games I would see Landry and Beckham repeatedly bailing Mettenberger out on poorly placed passes requiring them to come back to the ball and play through defenders. Many of those throws were scary and risked interceptions if the receiver didn't make a play on the ball.
This is on a team that mostly ran the ball and was working a lot out of play action. Great supporting cast all around him.
There were some questions about Beckhams lack of production. Particularly in 2012 that I think rightly falls on Metternberger not being that good of a QB.
EastonBlues22
Footballguy
I'm not saying Mettenberger is the future in TEN, but 22 TDs isn't that unusual given that he only had 296 pass attempts his senior year.
That's basically the same TD/PA rate that both Bridgewater and Carr had.
That's basically the same TD/PA rate that both Bridgewater and Carr had.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Here are Mettenbergers college stats
2011 he only had 11 attempts.
2012 Louisiana State SEC JR QB 13games 207cmp 352pass attempts (27pa/game) 58.8% 2609yards 7.4ypa 12TD 7int
2013 Louisiana State SEC SR QB 12games 192cmp 296pass attempts (24.6 pa/game) 64.9% 3082 10.4 10.7 22TD 8int
He greatly improved as a senior, but he did so in part by reducing his pass attempts/game.
His 12TD in 2012 were with both Beckham and Landry to work with as well. The excuse given is that he was still recovering from injury in 2012.
2012 and 2013 stats it is 648 pass attempts .0524 TD/attempt
Teddy Bridgewater
2011 Louisville FR QB 13games 191cmp 296pass attempts 64.5% 7.2 y/a 6.3 14TD 12int
2012 Louisville SO QB 13games 287cmp 419pass attempts 68.5% 8.9 y/a 9.3 27TD 8int
2013 Louisville JR QB 13games 303cmp 427pass attempts 71.0% 9.3 y/a 31TD 4int
2012 and 2013 stats is 846 pass attempts .0685 TD/attempt
Derek Carr
2011 Fresno State SO QB 13 279cmp 446 pass attempts 62.6% 7.9 y/a 26TD 9int
2012 Fresno State JR QB 13 344cmp 511 pass attempts 67.3% 8.0 y/a 37TD 7int
2013 Fresno State SR QB 13 453cmp 659 pass attempts 68.7% 7.7 y/a 50TD 8int
2012 and 2013 1170 pass attempts .0743 TD/attempt
It seems to me that a QB on fewer pass attempts should have better efficiency on those attempts because the defense is not as focused on stopping the pass. Yet despite the higher volume of attempts both Bridgewater and Carr were better.
That is why they were drafted much higher than Mettenberger was.
But when you consider the quality of talent Mett had to work with, Beckham 1st round pick Landry 2nd round pick Hill 2nd round pick Blue 6th round pick as well as offensive linemen who were taken in 2014 draft (and defensive players) I don't think it is an unfair criticism to say I expect Mettenberger to be able to do more with what he had to work with. If he were a good QB.
2011 he only had 11 attempts.
2012 Louisiana State SEC JR QB 13games 207cmp 352pass attempts (27pa/game) 58.8% 2609yards 7.4ypa 12TD 7int
2013 Louisiana State SEC SR QB 12games 192cmp 296pass attempts (24.6 pa/game) 64.9% 3082 10.4 10.7 22TD 8int
He greatly improved as a senior, but he did so in part by reducing his pass attempts/game.
His 12TD in 2012 were with both Beckham and Landry to work with as well. The excuse given is that he was still recovering from injury in 2012.
2012 and 2013 stats it is 648 pass attempts .0524 TD/attempt
Teddy Bridgewater
2011 Louisville FR QB 13games 191cmp 296pass attempts 64.5% 7.2 y/a 6.3 14TD 12int
2012 Louisville SO QB 13games 287cmp 419pass attempts 68.5% 8.9 y/a 9.3 27TD 8int
2013 Louisville JR QB 13games 303cmp 427pass attempts 71.0% 9.3 y/a 31TD 4int
2012 and 2013 stats is 846 pass attempts .0685 TD/attempt
Derek Carr
2011 Fresno State SO QB 13 279cmp 446 pass attempts 62.6% 7.9 y/a 26TD 9int
2012 Fresno State JR QB 13 344cmp 511 pass attempts 67.3% 8.0 y/a 37TD 7int
2013 Fresno State SR QB 13 453cmp 659 pass attempts 68.7% 7.7 y/a 50TD 8int
2012 and 2013 1170 pass attempts .0743 TD/attempt
It seems to me that a QB on fewer pass attempts should have better efficiency on those attempts because the defense is not as focused on stopping the pass. Yet despite the higher volume of attempts both Bridgewater and Carr were better.
That is why they were drafted much higher than Mettenberger was.
But when you consider the quality of talent Mett had to work with, Beckham 1st round pick Landry 2nd round pick Hill 2nd round pick Blue 6th round pick as well as offensive linemen who were taken in 2014 draft (and defensive players) I don't think it is an unfair criticism to say I expect Mettenberger to be able to do more with what he had to work with. If he were a good QB.
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EastonBlues22
Footballguy
He reduced his PA/G by 2.5 attempts, and Bridgewater had Devante Parker. <shrug>
Not sure why you bothered to include 2012, as it doesn't change the fact that they had the same TD rate their draft year. When Russell Wilson had his historic 2011, did everyone blow off his draft year success by saying his completion percentage and TD:INT ratios were much worse his previous three years, or that they didn't count because he only threw 309 PAs his senior year (down from 527 the year before)?
If they did, I sure don't remember hearing about it. All I remember is that if he fit the physical prototype a little bit better, he would have been a high first round pick.
Mettenberger isn't Wilson, but that's not the point.
With college QBs, we're basically looking for multi-year starters with some success, and it's expected to see improvement from year to year with the draft year numbers being pretty good. Earlier success is generally better than later success, but I don't think anyone averages their collegiate stats in the way you did above when comparing the relative quality of two QB draft prospects. The last year is much more important than what came before.
P.S. I get the impression that you believe I think Mettenberger is on par with Bridgewater and Carr as QB prospects. I don't. I'm just pointing out that his 22 TD total was misleading based on fewer attempts, and that the actual rate was comparable with other reasonable QB prospects.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Well that is why I ran the numbers, because of your point being that 22TD would be similar if you account for the increased pass attemtpts. Which is to show that Mettenbergers 22TDs do not match up to the TD per attempt numbers of Teddy and Carr. Both Teddy and Carr produced a higher ratio of TD/pass attempt.
I use the 2012 numbers so as to make a larger sample. This is usually how I would project TDs for any QB.
It isn't just the TD that are more efficient however. The completion percentage and pretty much everything is less efficient when it comes to Mettenberger. Yet he had 2 star WR to work with. To be fair Teddy did have DeVante Parker and Carr had Davante Adams.
I use the 2012 numbers so as to make a larger sample. This is usually how I would project TDs for any QB.
It isn't just the TD that are more efficient however. The completion percentage and pretty much everything is less efficient when it comes to Mettenberger. Yet he had 2 star WR to work with. To be fair Teddy did have DeVante Parker and Carr had Davante Adams.
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EastonBlues22
Footballguy
If that's the way you typically do it, that's fair. If I was going to do something like that, I would do a (significantly) weighted average...but to each their own. 
The numbers I was looking at:
2013:
Mettenberger - 7.43 TD%
Bridgewater - 7.26 TD%
Carr - 7.59%
Mettenberger had the worst TD:INT ratio of the three his senior year, but it wasn't abysmal. He also had the best Y/A of the three.
Figured Mettenberger was a 3rd or 4th rounder before the draft, and was surprised when he fell all the way to the 6th. I think his talent level is above that.
Perhaps somewhat ironically, I own all three of them in my 2QB dynasty league (heavy QB scoring tied to PA and Comp%). Picked Bridgewater with the 1.01, Carr with the 2.10, and picked up Mettenberger as a UDFA immediately after the rookie draft.
The numbers I was looking at:
2013:
Mettenberger - 7.43 TD%
Bridgewater - 7.26 TD%
Carr - 7.59%
Mettenberger had the worst TD:INT ratio of the three his senior year, but it wasn't abysmal. He also had the best Y/A of the three.
Figured Mettenberger was a 3rd or 4th rounder before the draft, and was surprised when he fell all the way to the 6th. I think his talent level is above that.
Perhaps somewhat ironically, I own all three of them in my 2QB dynasty league (heavy QB scoring tied to PA and Comp%). Picked Bridgewater with the 1.01, Carr with the 2.10, and picked up Mettenberger as a UDFA immediately after the rookie draft.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Well I think one of the common mistakes people make when evaluating players is only looking at the last season of their statistics. I always try to look at 3 years when possible. I compromise with Mettenberger and only look at two because he was injured in 2011.
I agree it is good to see that he improved in 2013. But as you mentioned, this was his senior season. So he was a year ahead of the other QB in his development at this point. So in that sense it would be more fair to compare all 3 QBs by their junior seasons. Mettenberger didn't perform well enough to declare for the NFL draft as a junior like the other two were. That is why he returned for a senior season. So although these were all 2013 stats. You are comparing a senior season to junior seasons.
It is difficult to compare college stats at all, because teams run different offenses with very different supporting casts and competition. If you could somehow put Carr or Bridgewater on those same LSU teams, I would think they would have performed much better than Mettenberger did in the same situation. But there is no way to do that. They played in a spread offense while Mett played in a "pro style" Coryell offense than ran the ball more than they passed.
This is one of the things considered a plus about Mett, was that he played in a offense more similar to what NFL teams do than Carr.
I admit I am a bit harsh when it comes to Mettenberger due to how he was often mocked to the Vikings in the pre draft process. I watched these QBs a lot with a critical eye because I knew the Vikings were looking for a QB after drafting Christian Ponder who failed. The narratives at that time was that Mett was a perfect fit for a Norv Turner Coryell offense that emphasizes down field passing. Then I watch Mett play and I see his flaws in ball placement, and I really did not want the Vikings to have anything to do with him.
Some well respected people like Greg Cosell said good things about Mettenberger. It is all about arm strength for these people. Which is a strength that Mett does have. He can throw the ball on a rope because of that. But he does not show good touch or anticipation. The accuracy is erratic. I did not see such criticisms of him by some evaluators like Cosell and others. I considered their analysis to be incomplete, and only based on his arm strength. Which at that time Norv Turner was making clear that arm strength is not an important trait for a successful QB to have, compared to timing, pocket pressence, ball placement and so many other characteristics of QB play.
People questioned Beckhams transition to the NFL due to the poor performance numbers he had in 2012. This is something that gave me pause regarding him as well. But after watching quite a bit of LSU games. I came to the conclushion that the poor numbers were due to Mettenberger moreso than Beckham or Landry, who I honestly think made him look like a much better QB than he is.
I agree it is good to see that he improved in 2013. But as you mentioned, this was his senior season. So he was a year ahead of the other QB in his development at this point. So in that sense it would be more fair to compare all 3 QBs by their junior seasons. Mettenberger didn't perform well enough to declare for the NFL draft as a junior like the other two were. That is why he returned for a senior season. So although these were all 2013 stats. You are comparing a senior season to junior seasons.
It is difficult to compare college stats at all, because teams run different offenses with very different supporting casts and competition. If you could somehow put Carr or Bridgewater on those same LSU teams, I would think they would have performed much better than Mettenberger did in the same situation. But there is no way to do that. They played in a spread offense while Mett played in a "pro style" Coryell offense than ran the ball more than they passed.
This is one of the things considered a plus about Mett, was that he played in a offense more similar to what NFL teams do than Carr.
I admit I am a bit harsh when it comes to Mettenberger due to how he was often mocked to the Vikings in the pre draft process. I watched these QBs a lot with a critical eye because I knew the Vikings were looking for a QB after drafting Christian Ponder who failed. The narratives at that time was that Mett was a perfect fit for a Norv Turner Coryell offense that emphasizes down field passing. Then I watch Mett play and I see his flaws in ball placement, and I really did not want the Vikings to have anything to do with him.
Some well respected people like Greg Cosell said good things about Mettenberger. It is all about arm strength for these people. Which is a strength that Mett does have. He can throw the ball on a rope because of that. But he does not show good touch or anticipation. The accuracy is erratic. I did not see such criticisms of him by some evaluators like Cosell and others. I considered their analysis to be incomplete, and only based on his arm strength. Which at that time Norv Turner was making clear that arm strength is not an important trait for a successful QB to have, compared to timing, pocket pressence, ball placement and so many other characteristics of QB play.
People questioned Beckhams transition to the NFL due to the poor performance numbers he had in 2012. This is something that gave me pause regarding him as well. But after watching quite a bit of LSU games. I came to the conclushion that the poor numbers were due to Mettenberger moreso than Beckham or Landry, who I honestly think made him look like a much better QB than he is.
College only matters some now that there's NFL experience.
He was arguably the best QB in the NFL in preseason. It's preseason, he played against backups but did get in against the 1s too.
His arm proved to be a real real big arm. He proved he can make all the throws. (Not every QB can, at all)
Whisenhunt had an odd way of passing alot then not passing for a long while then passing in the 4th. I don't know how ya take that.
He made many poor reads and fell for some coverage.
He was phenomenal one week for a half, which marked a defensive collapse that was one of the best comeback for an opposing team
He is not a statue that's terrible at getting rid of the ball-this was important. He held onto it too long sometimes but every rookie does. If he threw 100 and five were too long, fine, that's probably normal for rooks. In this giant knock on him pre-draft, people were wrong.
Not everything is good but he's definitely something to work with.
There's gotta be something along the lines of, what can they do with the big arm. Hunter did not play well in 2014 and didn't adjust to Whisenhunt well at all. He should have been able to use his huge size and good speed to benefit from Mett's arm and really open up the offense. Without, Nate went deep and a few times Wright did, but they really didn't get to use his big arm. Adding Douglas just adds more short game, they need hunter to step up or another WR that has a sweet deep game.
He's gotta show he's more cerebral or we're looking at Jeff George II. Specifically, lead some 4th Q drives with no mistakes. Now the Titans were rarely ever in a game in the 4th Q so there's little or nothing to go on here...still, George never ever stopped making mistakes and taking chances. Even Favre did eventually and he became a top QB from an entertaining one.
He was arguably the best QB in the NFL in preseason. It's preseason, he played against backups but did get in against the 1s too.
His arm proved to be a real real big arm. He proved he can make all the throws. (Not every QB can, at all)
Whisenhunt had an odd way of passing alot then not passing for a long while then passing in the 4th. I don't know how ya take that.
He made many poor reads and fell for some coverage.
He was phenomenal one week for a half, which marked a defensive collapse that was one of the best comeback for an opposing team
He is not a statue that's terrible at getting rid of the ball-this was important. He held onto it too long sometimes but every rookie does. If he threw 100 and five were too long, fine, that's probably normal for rooks. In this giant knock on him pre-draft, people were wrong.
Not everything is good but he's definitely something to work with.
There's gotta be something along the lines of, what can they do with the big arm. Hunter did not play well in 2014 and didn't adjust to Whisenhunt well at all. He should have been able to use his huge size and good speed to benefit from Mett's arm and really open up the offense. Without, Nate went deep and a few times Wright did, but they really didn't get to use his big arm. Adding Douglas just adds more short game, they need hunter to step up or another WR that has a sweet deep game.
He's gotta show he's more cerebral or we're looking at Jeff George II. Specifically, lead some 4th Q drives with no mistakes. Now the Titans were rarely ever in a game in the 4th Q so there's little or nothing to go on here...still, George never ever stopped making mistakes and taking chances. Even Favre did eventually and he became a top QB from an entertaining one.
cstu
Footballguy
This is very true, however there are two stats that I look for since most have NFL QB's have achieved them:
>62% completion percentage and TD/INT of 3.0 over their final two seasons.
Mettenberger is had 61.6% and 2.3%. Not reaching 62%/3.0 doesn't mean a QB can't be a success, but with ODB, Landry, and Hill it raises red flags.
I had him in a league (1 QB) and dropped him because I don't view him as a long-term starter in the NFL.
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Donnybrook
Footballguy
Anybody who has listened to Cosell talk about QBs, this is not surprising. The tallest QB with the strongest arm is quite obviously the best. I am surprised he hasn't ranked Chis Bonner as his #1 QB in the 2015 draft class yet.
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The Greg Cosell Quarterbacking School of Thought and Russell Wilson:
http://www.fieldgulls.com/2012/8/26/3269571/greg-cosell-quarterbacking-school-of-thought-russell-wilson
Donnybrook
Footballguy
Funny how he failed to mention him as promising QB prospect before the draft. http://nflfilms.nfl.com/2012/04/18/cosell-talks-the-other-quarterbacks-of-2012-part-3/
Heh good one,
I've noticed many people change their opinion of Mett in the past year. This is far and away the strongest change. Generally it's like they changed him from 6th to 3rd round type QB. No one, other than here, seems to consider him elite.
Zach Mettenberger has never won an NFL game. He has ended the last two seasons with major injury.
I like this player. He's not terrible. But he's also not a reason to pass on a QB.
I like this player. He's not terrible. But he's also not a reason to pass on a QB.
He wanted to play but wasn't allowed. I wouldn't call that major or any other word that induces caution and worry
msommer
Footballguy
Jake Locker and Clipboard Jesus each managed to get one in their 9 starts.Matt Bitonti said:
Locker's was against KC in the openier but Whitehurst squeaked by a very tame JAX (who beat TEN in his second attempt)
Perhaps Mettenberger could have fared equally well or better against JAX had he been given the opportunity.
By the way, have they cut Whitehurst yet or does he have dirty pictures of Whisenhunt?
Van Dyman
Footballguy
LittlePhatty
Footballguy
So really, the Titans should thank Mett for giving them the opportunity to draft Mariota.Matt Bitonti said:
msommer
Footballguy
if he was not under contract they would not have to cut him to get rid of him, now would they...
Donnybrook
Footballguy
BoltBacker
Footballguy
Are you sure? I thought he was considered 2nd/3rd prospect that might slide a little due to the injury. I was hoping SD would draft him after he fell past the 4th. I never thought he would get a start last season but I thought he was one of the better developmental prospect values when he dipped all the way to the sixth. It was a big surprise to me he lasted that long.
yeah last year it's about the same drop as he's risen this year...again I'm just guessing from opinions
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
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cstu
Footballguy
