QBBC (1 Viewer)

[tytyty]

Calling on Chase. I always enjoy your QBBC articles. I have used a few times. Some years I get a jones for the stud 1-3 QB preseason and just have to get him at my draft.

Have you looked back to your predictions to see how they paid off? It's hard to judge because you can come up with the end of year FP if you started them as you say but really dont have much to compare it to because it is apples to oranges. What if you took the EOY Qb's that were top 5 for last 5 years and list their FP. Then take your top 5 combos preseason you suggested and line them up. See what the differential each year is for FP. EX (bad one because Brady was sick last year) say Brady 350 FP, QB X and QB Y that you predictied preseason = 310 FP.

Not to ridicule or judge in any way. But to maybe prove or dismiss the theory. I like this year because you said having QB25 getting QB 10 points is not the way to go. Anyway just like to see the data. This year with the lack of RB talent I might have that top 3 or 4 QB itch and it would be interesting to see how your stuff turned out.

Better yet maybe dont use your specific predictions. Take what you are saying you did this year and put it to the last 5 Years. Take Qb 8- 12 maybe for the past and see what their best games were total and see how they compare to the FP for the QB 1-3 or 1-5. Just a suggestion and something to look at. Thanks!

 

[vamphyri]

Chase,

I have a question about QBBC also, so I figured I'd post it here. I have used a similar strategy for years, but without as much analysis. I basically take a group of mid-level QBs I expect to be decent, and then play matchups as the season wears on. I've been looking at both the duos and trios that you have recommended, and will probably end up with some combination of the players in that group. My main question concerns the disparity between the SOS that you give for QBs and the one that Clayton Gray has posted on the subscriber page. There are some significant differences, and I have found that some of the guys I've been looking at as having favorable schedules by your list are actually below average by the other. Could you explain the disparity between your approaches? Thanks a lot!

 

[Chase Stuart]

Chase,

I have a question about QBBC also, so I figured I'd post it here. I have used a similar strategy for years, but without as much analysis. I basically take a group of mid-level QBs I expect to be decent, and then play matchups as the season wears on. I've been looking at both the duos and trios that you have recommended, and will probably end up with some combination of the players in that group. My main question concerns the disparity between the SOS that you give for QBs and the one that Clayton Gray has posted on the subscriber page. There are some significant differences, and I have found that some of the guys I've been looking at as having favorable schedules by your list are actually below average by the other. Could you explain the disparity between your approaches? Thanks a lot!

Here's how I come up with my defensive rankings.1) Get the true FP/G allowed to opposing QBs for each team. This involves several iterations of adjusting the QB's for SOS for the defenses, then the defenses SOS for the QB's, then the QB's SOS for the defenses, then the defense's SOS for the QBs.... until eventually the numbers stop changing. At this point, you've got what I call actual values in terms of FP/G for the QBs (that's what my Rearview QB article is all about.

2) Do the same thing for adjusted yards per attempt allowed to opposing QBs. That's what this post was all about. The reason I use both AY/A allowed and FP/G allowed is because FP/G can be deceiving. If a defense allows a ton of pass attempts, or a lot of rushing TDs to QBs, that can seriously impact the FP/G but is less to happen again the next year than stuff like passing yards per attempt. That's why I average these two.

3) I make changes based on off-season moves. Draft picks, free agent signings, trades. Jason Taylor to the Redskins? Bump down the Dolphins' D, bump up the Washington D.

4) Make a home/road adjustment for every game.

I'm not exactly sure how Clayton comes up with his rankings, but mine are pretty detailed. As such, you would expect a good bit of variation among any set of rankings.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Calling on Chase. I always enjoy your QBBC articles. I have used a few times. Some years I get a jones for the stud 1-3 QB preseason and just have to get him at my draft.

Have you looked back to your predictions to see how they paid off? It's hard to judge because you can come up with the end of year FP if you started them as you say but really dont have much to compare it to because it is apples to oranges. What if you took the EOY Qb's that were top 5 for last 5 years and list their FP. Then take your top 5 combos preseason you suggested and line them up. See what the differential each year is for FP. EX (bad one because Brady was sick last year) say Brady 350 FP, QB X and QB Y that you predictied preseason = 310 FP.

Not to ridicule or judge in any way. But to maybe prove or dismiss the theory. I like this year because you said having QB25 getting QB 10 points is not the way to go. Anyway just like to see the data. This year with the lack of RB talent I might have that top 3 or 4 QB itch and it would be interesting to see how your stuff turned out.

Better yet maybe dont use your specific predictions. Take what you are saying you did this year and put it to the last 5 Years. Take Qb 8- 12 maybe for the past and see what their best games were total and see how they compare to the FP for the QB 1-3 or 1-5. Just a suggestion and something to look at. Thanks!

Despite common perception, I don't think there's a lot to prove or disprove with QBBC. Here are some important things which are IMO, closed issues:1) The ability of defenses can be predictable. They aren't perfectly predictable, but neither are the abilities to predict QBs or RBs. I'm confident that Tom Brady will outscore Brett Favre, that Peyton Manning will outscore David Garrard, that Drew Brees will outscore Jay Cutler, that Tony Romo will outscore Derek Anderson, that Ben Roethlisberger will outscore Jeff Garcia, that Donovan McNabb will outscore Matt Schaub, and that Matt Hasselbeck will outscore Tarvaris Jackson. That said, I'm also confident that one of those predictions will be wrong.

Similarly, I'm confident that Tampa, Indy, San Diego, Buffalo and Philly will be tougher fantasy defenses for QBs than Detroit, New Orleans, Cleveland, Atlanta and San Francisco. But odds are, one of those great Ds will be worse than one of those terrible Ds. But I'm still going to be right more often than I'm wrong.

2) QBs score fewer FPs against defenses that don't allow many FPs to opposing QBs than they do against defenses that allow lots of FPs to opposing QBs.

3) Therefore, you can use SOS to your advantage. The better your ranking of the defenses, the more valuable your QBBC will be.

I examine the results of QBBC every year. What happened last year was the three terrible QBs ended up outperforming their ADP, at least until injury. That's what you would predict, assuming you can predict which defenses will be bad. What also happened, though, was that they didn't outperform their ADP enough. So that's why this year I decided to grab two more talented QBs with weak schedules, and shifting the focus a little bit.

 

[Resident A]

I attempted to draft a pure QBBC team last year for the first time ever, and it bit me in the ###.

I ended up with Rivers, Schaub, & Campbell- none of which were any good. I played the matchups each week, and most weeks the best matchup was not the highest scoring QB. My season was cursed by this & I was a QB away from a title.

If I'd taken Hasselbeck or Favre over Rivers, I'd be much happier about trying QBBC again.