I started thinking about what we should expect from the QB position this year. It seems there could be a lot of factors that could make some of these QBs perform better, and some worse than we might think.
First, a quick list of the top few tiers of QBs: (and i realize you could make valid arguments to add/remove a QB form this list
)
Manning
Palmer
Brady
Brees
McNabb
Bulger
Young
Hasslebeck
Vick
Taking into account all the off season movement, QBs coming off injuries, new coaching staff, I thought I'd try predicting what we might see from the QBs this year.
Manning- I would think little will change with Manning. He's still got weapons all around him, and a mature offense/system that everyone is familiar with. He got the monkey off his back, and I think will be even more relaxed and comfortable this year. #1 QB hands down.
Palmer- I think we can expect improved numbers. He'll be more than a full year removed from that knee injury, and should be even more comfortable with his top 3 WRs (assuming they all stay out of jail). A healthy Chris Perry just gives him another weapon in the passing game.
Brady- A hard one to figure out. I also think we could see improved numbers, but perhaps later in the year. More than half of his receivers are going to be brand new to this offense. Will they pick it up? Can Stallworth stay healthy? Will they miss Graham and Branch?
Brees- Last year was just an amazing year for Drew. Can he repeat it? While history says players don't repeat their career year performances the following season, I think Brees will. Horn is gone, but by year's end, it was clear Colston, Henderson, and Topper were the top 3 WRs, with Bush obviously VERY involved out of the backfield. All 4 of those primary targets are YOUNG. They should only get better. If Eric Johnson can stay healthy, Drew might have as many weapons in the league as any other QB. I think top 3 is a safe bet.
McNabb- Its easy to focus on the "what have you done for me lately" and remember that McNabb killed his owners last year missing almost half the season. But let's not forget how DOMINATE McNabb was until he went on IR. He was averaging OVER 26 pts per game (in a 4 pt per passing league) after 9 games!!! And remember, he had that hernia throughout most of the season! If he ever stays healthy for 16 games, he could easily be a top 2 or 3 scoring QB. Of course, he starts another season where his top WR is gone. Will Brown, Basket, and newly acquired Curtis be enough to keep McNabb in the elite status category? Can LJ Smith step it up? Is there bad blood between him and Reid? There are definitely some risks here, if you own him, you thank god he has Westy. I think he's a great buy low candidate, but definitely has some risk.
Bulger- He seems to be the Rodney Dangerfield of QBs. If not for his injury in 2005, he would have finished in the top 10 the last 4 years. Last year he finished 3rd best QB in my league's scoring. Yet few people mention him when they talk about the top QBs. The good- Holt, Bruce, recently acquired Bennett and McMichael, and uber stud Jackson. The bad- father time is catching up with the Bruce. Curtis and McDonald are gone. I personally think the good outweighs the bad. Teams will HAVE to respect the run after Jackson's strong season, and with the new acquisitions, I think Bulger has even more weapons. As long as the line gives him time, I expect another top 5 finish.
Young- Is Young an uber stud? Just go ask Bloom. smile.gif Still not convinced? Go look at his numbers from week 10 through the end of the season. He averaged just over 20 pts per game, and that was despite one HORRID game during week 15. Plus, he was a rookie, still learning the game, on a really bad team. Like McNabb, I can't say I think his WRs are sexy or exciting. But like McNabb, he'll find a way to get it done, no matter who is on the field. Could you imagine if he had a top 5 WR to throw to? Scary thought. Try to acquire him in your dynasty leagues now. Hope that someone just doesn't realize how good he is yet.
Hasselbeck- Here's a guy that will drive you crazy. Some weeks, he's flat awful, other weeks, he's a stud! Part of his problem is well documented, LOTS of drops from his WRs. I think Branch should be more comfortable in the system, and if D-Jax, Alexander, and Matt can stay healthy, he could quickly jump into the top 5. Another great buy low candidate.
Vick- Wow, another guy that probably drives you crazy. But while he's had an up and down career in Atlanta, last year he was a LOT more consistent. In fact, it wasn't until the FF playoffs that he started to struggle. He finished AHEAD of Palmer in our scoring last year. In comes a new coach and a new system that supposedly "will take whatever the defense gives them." So if teams try to stop the run, SUPPOSEDLY the new Falcons will throw the ball 20 straight times if they need to. Something to consider- Vick had the lowest attempts per game of any QB that started the entire year in the NFL (24 per game). To put in perspective, Farve averaged 38 attempts per game. The ultimate ULCER QB, he'll drive you nuts, you probably hate relying on him as your #1 FF QB, but he is CAPABLE of winning you several games a year. I don't think he'll have another top 5 finish this year.
The next tier of QBs- I'll call them the young guns (minus Young) Leinart, Rivers, Big Ben, Romo, A.Smith, Cutler, and Campell, I all expect to make nice strides this year.
Leinart probably has the best weapons of this group, so I think we all expect him to continue with his progress.
Rivers has ALL the tools, but I think needs to get some better WRs. Little doubt the Chargers go WR in the first few rounds of the draft.
Big Ben could really surprise this year. We all remember how well he played as a rookie, and won the SB. Yes, it was a conservative offense, but the kid is one MONSTER sized QB, tough, and plays well under pressure. Last year he was pretty bad, but seeing how he almost died, TWICE, i'm willing to give him a pass. Ward is getting long in the tooth, and I'm not sure how good Holmes will be, so I'm hoping they draft a nice WR early. A good buy low candidate.
Romo should also improve, assuming that botched hold doesn't haunt him psychologically. Hard to know for sure what to expect with the new coaching staff, but it SEEMS that TO likes him, so that's always a good start.
A.Smith REALLY impressed me last year. After a HORRIBLE rookie season, he went from #### to the shizzle in 1 year. (okay shizzle is an exaggeration but what a difference) Losing Bryant may be addition by subtraction. A healthy V.Davis, a confident Gore, and hopefully a new WR in the draft could do wonders for this kid. GREAT buy low candidate IMO.
Cutler- I didn't watch a lot of his games to be honest, but I know he has some VERY nice weapons. Walker should be even better this year 2 seasons removed from his knee injury, and like Bloom, i'm a BIG Marshall fan. If Rod Smith isn't in a wheelchair by the start of the season, all the better (but i don't expect much from him now) Throw in 2 solid TEs and you only have to wonder what type of running game they will have. Me thinks they miss Portis. yes.gif I could see him having an Alex Smith sophomore type year. Definitely better, but don't think he'll sniff the top 10 or 15.
Campbell- Okay, I'll admit it right now, I'm a Skins homer. But i REALLY like his potential. His 10 TDs to 6 INTs, with that WR core, wasn't bad at all for a rookie (and yes, he was basically a rookie last year, as he never took a single snap in a game before) For the first time in, well forever, he'll have the same offensive coordinator and system in place for 2 consecutive years. A healthy Portis, Santana Moss, Cooley, Randle El, and hopefully Calvin Johnson (okay, i know it won't happen, but i'm dreaming) could give him some nice weapons and solid numbers. Fact is, he'll be DIRT CHEAP in your leagues, so a great buy low candidate.
What do you guys think?
First, a quick list of the top few tiers of QBs: (and i realize you could make valid arguments to add/remove a QB form this list
)Manning
Palmer
Brady
Brees
McNabb
Bulger
Young
Hasslebeck
Vick
Taking into account all the off season movement, QBs coming off injuries, new coaching staff, I thought I'd try predicting what we might see from the QBs this year.
Manning- I would think little will change with Manning. He's still got weapons all around him, and a mature offense/system that everyone is familiar with. He got the monkey off his back, and I think will be even more relaxed and comfortable this year. #1 QB hands down.
Palmer- I think we can expect improved numbers. He'll be more than a full year removed from that knee injury, and should be even more comfortable with his top 3 WRs (assuming they all stay out of jail). A healthy Chris Perry just gives him another weapon in the passing game.
Brady- A hard one to figure out. I also think we could see improved numbers, but perhaps later in the year. More than half of his receivers are going to be brand new to this offense. Will they pick it up? Can Stallworth stay healthy? Will they miss Graham and Branch?
Brees- Last year was just an amazing year for Drew. Can he repeat it? While history says players don't repeat their career year performances the following season, I think Brees will. Horn is gone, but by year's end, it was clear Colston, Henderson, and Topper were the top 3 WRs, with Bush obviously VERY involved out of the backfield. All 4 of those primary targets are YOUNG. They should only get better. If Eric Johnson can stay healthy, Drew might have as many weapons in the league as any other QB. I think top 3 is a safe bet.
McNabb- Its easy to focus on the "what have you done for me lately" and remember that McNabb killed his owners last year missing almost half the season. But let's not forget how DOMINATE McNabb was until he went on IR. He was averaging OVER 26 pts per game (in a 4 pt per passing league) after 9 games!!! And remember, he had that hernia throughout most of the season! If he ever stays healthy for 16 games, he could easily be a top 2 or 3 scoring QB. Of course, he starts another season where his top WR is gone. Will Brown, Basket, and newly acquired Curtis be enough to keep McNabb in the elite status category? Can LJ Smith step it up? Is there bad blood between him and Reid? There are definitely some risks here, if you own him, you thank god he has Westy. I think he's a great buy low candidate, but definitely has some risk.
Bulger- He seems to be the Rodney Dangerfield of QBs. If not for his injury in 2005, he would have finished in the top 10 the last 4 years. Last year he finished 3rd best QB in my league's scoring. Yet few people mention him when they talk about the top QBs. The good- Holt, Bruce, recently acquired Bennett and McMichael, and uber stud Jackson. The bad- father time is catching up with the Bruce. Curtis and McDonald are gone. I personally think the good outweighs the bad. Teams will HAVE to respect the run after Jackson's strong season, and with the new acquisitions, I think Bulger has even more weapons. As long as the line gives him time, I expect another top 5 finish.
Young- Is Young an uber stud? Just go ask Bloom. smile.gif Still not convinced? Go look at his numbers from week 10 through the end of the season. He averaged just over 20 pts per game, and that was despite one HORRID game during week 15. Plus, he was a rookie, still learning the game, on a really bad team. Like McNabb, I can't say I think his WRs are sexy or exciting. But like McNabb, he'll find a way to get it done, no matter who is on the field. Could you imagine if he had a top 5 WR to throw to? Scary thought. Try to acquire him in your dynasty leagues now. Hope that someone just doesn't realize how good he is yet.
Hasselbeck- Here's a guy that will drive you crazy. Some weeks, he's flat awful, other weeks, he's a stud! Part of his problem is well documented, LOTS of drops from his WRs. I think Branch should be more comfortable in the system, and if D-Jax, Alexander, and Matt can stay healthy, he could quickly jump into the top 5. Another great buy low candidate.
Vick- Wow, another guy that probably drives you crazy. But while he's had an up and down career in Atlanta, last year he was a LOT more consistent. In fact, it wasn't until the FF playoffs that he started to struggle. He finished AHEAD of Palmer in our scoring last year. In comes a new coach and a new system that supposedly "will take whatever the defense gives them." So if teams try to stop the run, SUPPOSEDLY the new Falcons will throw the ball 20 straight times if they need to. Something to consider- Vick had the lowest attempts per game of any QB that started the entire year in the NFL (24 per game). To put in perspective, Farve averaged 38 attempts per game. The ultimate ULCER QB, he'll drive you nuts, you probably hate relying on him as your #1 FF QB, but he is CAPABLE of winning you several games a year. I don't think he'll have another top 5 finish this year.
The next tier of QBs- I'll call them the young guns (minus Young) Leinart, Rivers, Big Ben, Romo, A.Smith, Cutler, and Campell, I all expect to make nice strides this year.
Leinart probably has the best weapons of this group, so I think we all expect him to continue with his progress.
Rivers has ALL the tools, but I think needs to get some better WRs. Little doubt the Chargers go WR in the first few rounds of the draft.
Big Ben could really surprise this year. We all remember how well he played as a rookie, and won the SB. Yes, it was a conservative offense, but the kid is one MONSTER sized QB, tough, and plays well under pressure. Last year he was pretty bad, but seeing how he almost died, TWICE, i'm willing to give him a pass. Ward is getting long in the tooth, and I'm not sure how good Holmes will be, so I'm hoping they draft a nice WR early. A good buy low candidate.
Romo should also improve, assuming that botched hold doesn't haunt him psychologically. Hard to know for sure what to expect with the new coaching staff, but it SEEMS that TO likes him, so that's always a good start.
A.Smith REALLY impressed me last year. After a HORRIBLE rookie season, he went from #### to the shizzle in 1 year. (okay shizzle is an exaggeration but what a difference) Losing Bryant may be addition by subtraction. A healthy V.Davis, a confident Gore, and hopefully a new WR in the draft could do wonders for this kid. GREAT buy low candidate IMO.
Cutler- I didn't watch a lot of his games to be honest, but I know he has some VERY nice weapons. Walker should be even better this year 2 seasons removed from his knee injury, and like Bloom, i'm a BIG Marshall fan. If Rod Smith isn't in a wheelchair by the start of the season, all the better (but i don't expect much from him now) Throw in 2 solid TEs and you only have to wonder what type of running game they will have. Me thinks they miss Portis. yes.gif I could see him having an Alex Smith sophomore type year. Definitely better, but don't think he'll sniff the top 10 or 15.
Campbell- Okay, I'll admit it right now, I'm a Skins homer. But i REALLY like his potential. His 10 TDs to 6 INTs, with that WR core, wasn't bad at all for a rookie (and yes, he was basically a rookie last year, as he never took a single snap in a game before) For the first time in, well forever, he'll have the same offensive coordinator and system in place for 2 consecutive years. A healthy Portis, Santana Moss, Cooley, Randle El, and hopefully Calvin Johnson (okay, i know it won't happen, but i'm dreaming) could give him some nice weapons and solid numbers. Fact is, he'll be DIRT CHEAP in your leagues, so a great buy low candidate.
What do you guys think?
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