Question for Chase and Jeff about the..... (1 Viewer)

[Stinkin Ref]

What are the odds that the first team you mention will be around late enough to really employ this strategy and reap the most benefit......I don't think it is a secret to anyone who even takes a quick look at the schedule that that particular team has a cake walk of a schedule.....before this article even came out, I had that team ranked higher than even some of the top defenses, just because that schedule is so cake....

with this approach you really want to be able to grab two defenses pretty late to mamimize the value, but my fear is that by the time drafts really start rolling, the first defense you mention may go much sooner than we think as even some guppy owners will look at that schedule and jump on it, probably taking that DST off the board earlier than when we would want to pull the trigger to implement this strategy.........

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

What are the odds that the first team you mention will be around late enough to really employ this strategy and reap the most benefit......I don't think it is a secret to anyone who even takes a quick look at the schedule that that particular team has a cake walk of a schedule.....before this article even came out, I had that team ranked higher than even some of the top defenses, just because that schedule is so cake....

with this approach you really want to be able to grab two defenses pretty late to mamimize the value, but my fear is that by the time drafts really start rolling, the first defense you mention may go much sooner than we think as even some guppy owners will look at that schedule and jump on it, probably taking that DST off the board earlier than when we would want to pull the trigger to implement this strategy.........

This really depends on your league, but in most leagues the ADP for team defenses has been reasonably consistent at the top. Most team defenses don't break the Top 100 in most drafts (typically the Jets), so that's Round 9-10 at the earliest.

We do recommend drafting them a tad earlier than their ADP to make sure you get them, but if you are concerned about getting sniped going 2-3 rounds ahead of ADP isn't a terrible idea.

Here's MFL's version of defensive ADP. You can see what I mean:

MFL ADP

 

[Stinkin Ref]

What are the odds that the first team you mention will be around late enough to really employ this strategy and reap the most benefit......I don't think it is a secret to anyone who even takes a quick look at the schedule that that particular team has a cake walk of a schedule.....before this article even came out, I had that team ranked higher than even some of the top defenses, just because that schedule is so cake....

with this approach you really want to be able to grab two defenses pretty late to mamimize the value, but my fear is that by the time drafts really start rolling, the first defense you mention may go much sooner than we think as even some guppy owners will look at that schedule and jump on it, probably taking that DST off the board earlier than when we would want to pull the trigger to implement this strategy.........

This really depends on your league, but in most leagues the ADP for team defenses has been reasonably consistent at the top. Most team defenses don't break the Top 100 in most drafts (typically the Jets), so that's Round 9-10 at the earliest.

We do recommend drafting them a tad earlier than their ADP to make sure you get them, but if you are concerned about getting sniped going 2-3 rounds ahead of ADP isn't a terrible idea.

Here's MFL's version of defensive ADP. You can see what I mean:

MFL ADP

their ADP right now is around DST 10.....starter worthy.....meaning you have to get them pretty early and if you say go 2-3 rounds even earlier to make sure you get them this combo loses a ton of value.....IMO the DSTBC article should have focused on one of the other combos you have listed as I don't see the featured combo as a realistic option....I may be wrong, but I thought this article usually featured/combined two teams that you could get pretty late after the top (starter) defenses were off the board......thanks for the other combos as one of them may be more realistic when trying to implement this strategy......

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

Article also recommends using the crappier of the two defenses 9 of the 16 weeks including eight of the first 12 weeks. That doesn't seem like a very good strategy to me.

 

[da_budman]

Article also recommends using the crappier of the two defenses 9 of the 16 weeks including eight of the first 12 weeks. That doesn't seem like a very good strategy to me.

I noticed that as well And of you are now saying draft the best defense 2-3 rounds BEFORE the adp doesn't that defeat the purpose of going defense by committee in the first place? Not a big fan of that either. Almost seems like your manufacturing a reason to go tdbc instead of using it to your advantage. If those are truly the best 2 teams to use the best strategy would be to write an article that says, guess what guys, we dont advocate a defensive committee this year.

 

[Lehigh98]

I agree, think there should really be a plan B and maybe even plan C listed if D #1 goes early.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Was this a similar criticism of last year's article?

Last year's DTBC:

Green Bay - ADP of D/ST12

Arizona - ADP of D/ST18

Recommended usage:

GB 9

AZ 7

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2009/09stuart_dtbc.php

 

[Stinkin Ref]

Was this a similar criticism of last year's article?

Last year's DTBC:

Green Bay - ADP of D/ST12

Arizona - ADP of D/ST18

Recommended usage:

GB 9

AZ 7

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2009/09stuart_dtbc.php

I wasn't really criticizing, so please don't take it that way.....thats a good pairing if you can get them....I guess when I always thought of this article, it was more of pulling a couple of diamonds from the rough (late teens to late 20's ranked DST's) and matching them up to get starter (top 12) type production.....I must not have paid much attention to the article last year because you have used teams again of similiar rank....I just think most would agree that using this strategy with the first team is going to be very difficult if you want to maximize value...

the benefit to me of a DSTBC approach in a say a 20 round draft.... would be a couple of teams that I could get with my picks from say round 15+.....to get that first team I would be willing to bet you have to pull the trigger way before that.....one of the nice things about the DSTBC approach is that you could usually sit back and relax knowing you could implement the strategy late.....that would not be the case here as you would be playing with fire each time you passed on that first team....

 

[Stinkin Ref]

using the first team mentioned is really a no brainer with as easy as their schedule is.....in fact if you took them you are probably better off flying solo with them and using your other DST pick to add depth at another position....especially since that team has a late bye week and their schedule up to that point only has a couple of matchups that some would think are "tough" right now.....

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Sorry to keep editing this thread but I'm trying to both facilitate discussions and also not give away the 1-2 teams we're talking about.

It's a delicate balance.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Was this a similar criticism of last year's article?

Last year's DTBC:

Green Bay - ADP of D/ST12

Arizona - ADP of D/ST18

Recommended usage:

GB 9

AZ 7

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2009/09stuart_dtbc.php

I wasn't really criticizing, so please don't take it that way.....thats a good pairing if you can get them....I guess when I always thought of this article, it was more of pulling a couple of diamonds from the rough (late teens to late 20's ranked DST's) and matching them up to get starter (top 12) type production.....I must not have paid much attention to the article last year because you have used teams again of similiar rank....I just think most would agree that using this strategy with the first team is going to be very difficult if you want to maximize value...

the benefit to me of a DSTBC approach in a say a 20 round draft.... would be a couple of teams that I could get with my picks from say round 15+.....to get that first team I would be willing to bet you have to pull the trigger way before that.....one of the nice things about the DSTBC approach is that you could usually sit back and relax knowing you could implement the strategy late.....that would not be the case here as you would be playing with fire each time you passed on that first team....

I agree with your general statement but there's a pretty good chance that "TEAM 1" will be there in Round 15.Drafting said team in Rd 14 to be certain you get them isn't really asking too much IMHO - and depends on your league tendencies and who has what at that point.