Quinn Vs Russell (1 Viewer)

[Alwazefun]

I just typed this all out from a magazine article as a response to another thread. I hate to waste all that typing for nothing so I decided to make a new post with the info.

I am still unsure who I think will be the better QB, but I found the numbers in this article very interesting. Forgive any typos I couldnt find a link so I typed it from the magazine.

Quoted From: "How Do you Seperate the Peyton Mannings from the Ryan Leafs"

ESPN NFL DRAFT GUIDE 2007

................ Peyton proponets argued that he was more mature and accomplished. Leaf Backers argued he had the stronger arm and more growh potential. But all the Colts really needed to know was four numbers: Manning started 45 college games, completing 63% of his passes; Leaf started 24 games, completing 54% of his passes. The future couldnt be more clear.

It's true: college satatistics really can prdict NFL performance. For our 2006 Pro Football prospectus, we studied 10 years' worth of drafts and discovered that the single greatest indicator of NFL success for QBs taken in the first 2 rounds is the number of college games they started. Phillip Rivers, for one, started 51 games at NC State. Mcnabb started 49 games and Carson Palmer started 45. On the flip side, bust-to-be Joey harrington (28), Jim Druckenmiller (24), and Akili Smith (19) had relatively little starting experience.

The other inportant predictor is completion percentage. Ben Roethlisberger completed more then 65% of his college passes. Rivers completed 64%. Both Manning brothers had completion percentages above 60%, as did Drew Brees, Matt Leinert, and Vince Young. Leaf and Druckenmiller, on the other hand couldnt complete 55% of their passes. Harrington, Smith and Cade McNown barely did. Kyle Boller didnt even complete half of his college passes.

What about the QBs who will go early in the 2007 draft? Brady Quinn started 45 games and completed 58% of his passes, almost identical to McNabb and halfway between Palmer and Jay Cutler. JaMarcus Russell completed 62% of his passes but had just 29 starts. Those numbers are similar to Kellen Clemens' and Rex Grossman's. .........................

 

[Andy Dufresne]

This has been my feeling all along. Good find.

 

[Kit Fisto]

This has been my feeling all along. Good find.

Fisto makes two.

 

[chris1969]

http://www.foxnews.com/video/0,4861,10,00.html#

click on the picture of Brady Quinn

 

[Jiggyonthehut]

Is someone implying that Kevin Kolb (48 total games) is going to have a comparable NFL career to McNabb and Carson Palmer while Vince Young (mid 20's total games) is going to have a comparable NFL career to Akili Smith and Druckenmiller?

Dream on.

While college experience is a crucial factor in evaluating a prospect, it by no means should be a barometer for predicted NFL success. Take for example Kolb who was ushered into a similar style offense that he used in high school. In effect, he's been running the system for about 8 years now but does that make him a good NFL prospect. Absolutely not. System must be taken into account, especially in this scenario where his skillset may not translate well to an NFL career.

Also you have to expect that QB's from major programs- who stockpile elite talent- will eventually have to sit and wait their turn to start. Simply put, in programs like Michigan and USC, a future HOF may be buried on the depth chart somewhere. It's highly unrealistic to expect a freshman to blow away the competition in a school with a major program- hence necessitating that game film is the only real way to get a feel for prospects' skills.

However, problems are revealed by extensive playing time but in sticking to that philosophy, teams get a player they feel is a safe pick but may be losing out on the Tom Bradys and Vince Youngs of the world. So it presents an almost cliched debate- upside vs. college experience. Is this prospect Peyton Manning or Ryan Leaf? In this case, we are right back to where we started.

 

[cstu]

http://www.foxnews.com/video/0,4861,10,00.html#

click on the picture of Brady Quinn

 

[Chase Stuart]

JaMarcus Russell completed 62% of his passes but had just 29 starts. Those numbers are similar to Kellen Clemens' and Rex Grossman's. .........................

I'm not sure where that gets us.

 

[Chase Stuart]

For our 2006 Pro Football prospectus, we studied 10 years' worth of drafts and discovered that the single greatest indicator of NFL success for QBs taken in the first 2 rounds is the number of college games they started.

I don't think this can be true over a large enough sample, or they're not being specific enough. But the greatest indicator for NFL success for QBs taken in the first two rounds, I'm sure, is what pick they were drafted with.

 

[jurb26]

JaMarcus Russell completed 62% of his passes but had just 29 starts. Those numbers are similar to Kellen Clemens' and Rex Grossman's. .........................

I'm not sure where that gets us.

So both will be HoF material according to this article. As I say at work, cyoa in true application.

 

[chris1969]

http://www.foxnews.com/video/0,4861,10,00.html#

click on the picture of Brady Quinn

My thoughts Exactly! He made it look easy too!

 

[Colin Dowling]

Starting makes a ton of difference, but it's not any better of an indicator then anything else on its own...

Tom Brady -25 starts

Kyle Boller - 31 / 53%

Ryan Leaf - 24

Cade McNown - 42 / 55%

Joey Harrington - 26 / 55%

Mike Vick - 21 - 56%

JP Losman - 29 / 57%

Jay Cutler -43 / 57%

Akili SMith - 11 / 58%

Carson Palmer - 45 / 59%

There are 5 guys listed still starting in the NFL. Three had fewer then 30 starts. The best of the bunch had a mere 25, the third best (Vick) had 21 and the 4th best (Losman) had 29.

See a pattern? Neither do I

 

[Christo]

Is someone implying that Kevin Kolb (48 total games) is going to have a comparable NFL career to McNabb and Carson Palmer while Vince Young (mid 20's total games) is going to have a comparable NFL career to Akili Smith and Druckenmiller?

 

[S.K.A.]

http://www.foxnews.com/video/0,4861,10,00.html#

click on the picture of Brady Quinn

I was impressed.

 

[switz]

http://www.foxnews.com/video/0,4861,10,00.html#

click on the picture of Brady Quinn

My thoughts Exactly! He made it look easy too!

Quinn is going to be so much more successful than Russell.

 

[chris1969]

For those of you that haven't looked at the link yet, Quinn threw about a 55 yard pass standing flat footed to a reporter in the bed of a truck and hit him in the bread basket. It looked like a rocket laser arm to me! Also, his upper body looked a lot bigger to me than in the combine. He's definately been working out hard.

 

[massraider]

I just typed this all out from a magazine article as a response to another thread.

Bummer. You could have just cut/pasted it from the other 7 or 8 times the original link (Football Outsiders) was cited.

 

[RavensUNFL]

I think Quinn could run our offense just fine, he can atleast move, unlike the dan marino/bernie kosar looking walter. Yes i know our offensive line and play calling sucked, but damn, walter just couldn't get out of his own way, it was just sad. If we are running a west coast style offense, the qb will need to be able to move his feet and throw, something i have a hard time believing walter will ever be good at.

At the same time... how can you pass up CJ?

I have liked Quinn better all along as he just "seems" like he really wants to prove to everyone he really is good and russell seems more easy going willing to accept whatever happens, + him being overweight tells me he didn't want it as much as Quinn, who worked his butt off to be ready.

I just really want the first 2 picks then I will be happy.

 

[Faust]

 

[S.K.A.]

I'd still prefer the Raiders to draft Russell.