Ramifications of Saturday games (1 Viewer)

[BGP]

Here's an interesting fact based on my data here:

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...p;hl=efficiency

ind 14.42 O, 14.76 D

nor 15.46 O, 15.27 D

The 2006 Colts have a defensive efficiency of 14.76. That is the worst defensive rating of ANY club to play in an NFC or AFC title game since 1990. The previous low was the 1995 Steelers, who had a DE of 14.78. They won the AFC title game over the Colts that season. Only one other team got this far with a DE under 15: The 2003 Colts, who had a DE of 14.92. They lost to the [Patriots in that game.

The Saints have a DE of 15.27. That now ranks as the fourth-worst defensive rating of all clubs to reach a conference title game since 1990, with only the 06 Colts, 03 Colts, and 95 Steelers being worse.

The worst DE of a champion since 1990? The 98 Broncos, who had a DE of 17.06. (Or one could point to the "championship" of the 05 Steelers. They had a DE of 16.52). There's quite a difference between the DE the 06 Saints and 06 Colts and that of the worst champion.

 

[BGP]

sdg 12.17 O, 15.92 D

sea 15.80 O, 15.50 D

Let's assume the Chargers and Seahawks win this sunday and advance to the conference title round. Should that happen, ALL FOUR remaining clubs would have a DE worse than that of any super bowl champ since 1990.

The only two clubs left standing with a "super" DE are the Patriots and Bears.

nwe 14.44 O, 19.87 D

chi 12.56 O, 18.45 D

Which has been my super bowl pick.

 

[BGP]

The Saints have inverted efficiencies. That means their offensive efficiency is actually higher than their defensive efficiency. That's normally the hallmark of a bad football team.

Only two other clubs made it to the conference title round since 1990 with inverted efficiencies: the 2003 Panthers. They beat the Eagles and lost the Super Bowl to the Patriots that season. The other were the 1996 Jaguars, who lost to the Patirots.

The 06 Seahawks also have inverted efficiencies.

 

[BGP]

I'm looking at the old data before 1990 at DEs.

89 sfo 14.81 O, 19.56 D

88 sfo 16.79 O, 16.57 D

87 was 15.35 O, 1911.D

86 nyg 15.49 O, 21.91 D

85 chi 13.30 O, 23.32 D

84 sfo 13.78 O, 24.40 D

83 rai 13.91 O, 15.48 D

82 was 16.88 O, 22.00 D*

81 sfo 15.99 O, 20.21 D

80 oak 14.95 O, 17.83 D

79 pit 15.58 O, 17.64 D

78 pit 14.77 O, 23.23 D

77 dal 14.66 O, 17.18 D

76 oak 15.66 O, 20.05 D

75 pit 13.88 O, 24.81 D

74 pit 14.99 O, 18.41 D

73 mia 12.23 O, 23.97 D

72 mia 13.49 O, 20.92 D

71 dal 13.02 O, 17.14 D

70 bal 13.78 O, 18.03 D

69 kan 13.53 O, 20.24 D

68 nyj 12.37 O, 13.44 D***

67 gnb 14.06 O, 17.07 D

66 gnb 13.45 O, 24.29 D

*strike-shortened season

**seasons 1977 and prior were 14 games

*** WOW

Only ONE club in the super bowl era has won the title with a DE at least as bad as the 06 Colts or 06 Saints - the 1968 Jets of Super Bowl III. Let's look at that shocker using my data:

+ The Super Bowl III Jets had a DE of just 13.44!!!!

+ The defeated the Colts in that game who had a DE of 26!!!!

68 bal 12.20 O, 26.00 D

+ The 68 Colts had a better DE than ANY club that has ever won the Super Bowl.

There were 10 teams in the AFL and 26 total in the NFL.

+ 4th in the AFL in passing yards allowed.

+ 11th overall in the NFL in passing yards allowed.

+ 1st in the AFL in rushing yards allowed.

+ 2nd overall in the NFL in rushing yards allowed.

+ Allowed 280 points, 4th in the AFL and 11th in the NFL in points allowed.

When I look closely at the 68 Jets numbers, they mostly look in line with a good club except they gave up a ton of points for the yardage allowed. My top suspiscion whenever I see that is that the red-zone defense was atrocious. Perhaps it was but held together or was not a factor in the Super Bowl.

Looking at the Super Bowl III "game summary" on wiki:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Bowl_III

+ Colts got into the Jets' red zone on their first possession, but their kicker missed a 27-yard FG.

+ Colts recovered a fumble at the Jets' 12, but a deflected Colt pass was picked off and the Colts came away with no points once again.

+ Colts got into the red zone again, but the Colts pass was intercepted at the Jets 2 yard line.

+ Colts got into the red zone in the fourth quarter and finally socred a TD.

Had the 1968 Colts won Super Bowl III, I think they'd be considered the best Super Bowl champ of all time.

Talk about everything going wrong. Ouch.

 

[BGP]

One final addition I think before I go:

Only ONE Super Bowl champion has had inverted efficiencies like the 06 Saints and 06 Seahawks have - the 1988 49ers.

edit: SAINTS not Colts...

 

[Chase Stuart]

Had the 1968 Colts won Super Bowl III, I think they'd be considered the best Super Bowl champ of all time.

Yes.The '68 Colts were one of the truly great teams of all-time, and probably the best team ever that no one remembers. Everyone knows the Ravens allowed 165 points in 2000, the best in the modern era. But that Ravens team doesn't even hold the record for fewest PPG allowed by a Baltimore team. The '68 Colts allowed 10.29 PPG. In their first sixteen games (fourteen regular season games and the two NFL playoff games), the Colts allowed just 158 points, under 10PPG.And they averaged 28.8 PPG in their first sixteen games. That's an absolutely incredible margin. They beat every team they faced that year, and after going 13-1 in the regular season, they avenged their only loss by shutting out the Browns on the road, 34-0.Uninformed observers like to say that Shula messed up by not putting in Unitas and letting a guy like Morrall stay in the game. Well, since 1960, Morrall's 9.2 yards per attempt in 1968 is the tenth best. To put that in perspective, the eleventh best year was by Peyton Manning in 2004. So when Manning set seemingly every record in the book in 2004, he didn't even finish with one of the two highest YPA averages in Baltimore history (Unitas' 1964 season ranks fifth).They had just one loss in 1967, and were even better in '68. They might have had the best defense of all time, and they had five pro bowlers on offense.

 

[pizzatyme]

Had the 1968 Colts won Super Bowl III, I think they'd be considered the best Super Bowl champ of all time.

Yes.The '68 Colts were one of the truly great teams of all-time, and probably the best team ever that no one remembers. Everyone knows the Ravens allowed 165 points in 2000, the best in the modern era. But that Ravens team doesn't even hold the record for fewest PPG allowed by a Baltimore team. The '68 Colts allowed 10.29 PPG. In their first sixteen games (fourteen regular season games and the two NFL playoff games), the Colts allowed just 158 points, under 10PPG.

And they averaged 28.8 PPG in their first sixteen games. That's an absolutely incredible margin. They beat every team they faced that year, and after going 13-1 in the regular season, they avenged their only loss by shutting out the Browns on the road, 34-0.

Uninformed observers like to say that Shula messed up by not putting in Unitas and letting a guy like Morrall stay in the game. Well, since 1960, Morrall's 9.2 yards per attempt in 1968 is the tenth best. To put that in perspective, the eleventh best year was by Peyton Manning in 2004. So when Manning set seemingly every record in the book in 2004, he didn't even finish with one of the two highest YPA averages in Baltimore Colts history (Unitas' 1964 season ranks fifth).

They had just one loss in 1967, and were even better in '68. They might have had the best defense of all time, and they had five pro bowlers on offense.

Fixed.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Had the 1968 Colts won Super Bowl III, I think they'd be considered the best Super Bowl champ of all time.

Yes.The '68 Colts were one of the truly great teams of all-time, and probably the best team ever that no one remembers. Everyone knows the Ravens allowed 165 points in 2000, the best in the modern era. But that Ravens team doesn't even hold the record for fewest PPG allowed by a Baltimore team. The '68 Colts allowed 10.29 PPG. In their first sixteen games (fourteen regular season games and the two NFL playoff games), the Colts allowed just 158 points, under 10PPG.

And they averaged 28.8 PPG in their first sixteen games. That's an absolutely incredible margin. They beat every team they faced that year, and after going 13-1 in the regular season, they avenged their only loss by shutting out the Browns on the road, 34-0.

Uninformed observers like to say that Shula messed up by not putting in Unitas and letting a guy like Morrall stay in the game. Well, since 1960, Morrall's 9.2 yards per attempt in 1968 is the tenth best. To put that in perspective, the eleventh best year was by Peyton Manning in 2004. So when Manning set seemingly every record in the book in 2004, he didn't even finish with one of the two highest YPA averages in Baltimore Colts history (Unitas' 1964 season ranks fifth).

They had just one loss in 1967, and were even better in '68. They might have had the best defense of all time, and they had five pro bowlers on offense.

Fixed.

Oops.