Schrager mentions the Eli Manning trade, and says no one complained about the results. It sounds reasonable, until you look that trade up, and realize they gave up a 1st, a 3rd, and a 5th. Three picks is a lot, but really isn't on the same level as this deal. The Chargers were also dealing from a position of weakness on that deal, as Eli said he wasn't going there. Bringing up the 2004 draft, however, is valid, as there are three top QBs in this draft, and three in that one. Giants made out on that deal, they won two Super Bowls. They also could have stayed put and taken Ben Roethlisberger, and gotten the best player.
The Rams are going to save money at the QB position for the next 4 years. But they have 5 other roster holes (minimum) that cannot be young studs that they will realize saving on. They traded 20 cheap contract years to the Titans.
And the Rams might wish they had those cheap contract years.
2017 free agents:
Trumaine Johnson
Tavon Austin
Michael Brockers
Alec Ogletree
TJ McDonald
2018 free agents:
Greg Robinson
LaMarcus Joyner
EJ Gaines
Aaron Donald
How many of these players will be around for Goff's prime? They are going to need to put young cheap talent around him to replenish the roster.
I think the Rams had to get a QB, they have had a good amount of talent with no QB, and have started to see some of it leave. But there has to be a price that is TOO high.
How much would they save in the next four years relative to HOU?
$72 million (?) - $22 million = $50 million. About $12.5 per year.
I'm also not sure if we are accounting for the fact that the cap will be going up in 2017, 2018, 2019 - not sure about estimates, but it will approach $200 million in a few years (which other teams will have, too in a competitive environment, and internal free agent contracts will accelerate apace, so maybe a wash?).
Not every starter (22 + ST) needs to be an All-Pro. The key is QB (and I realize there isn't just one way to win, you have aging vets such as BAL with Dilfer and TB with Brad Johnson, but looking at recent Super Bowl trends, and playing the percentages, you need a QB - BTW, do I wish we had drafted Bortles or Carr in 2014, sure
). They got their C off the street. McLeod, too, who they developed into the highest paid S in this free agent cycle (?), they seem to have a knack for developing DBs. Gaines was maybe their most reliable CB in 2014, and he was a sixth rounder. Britt and Quick are cheap (I would like to upgrade, but perhaps they have upside with a QB upgrade, Quick was slow to rehab from residual effects of a lingering shoulder injury?). DE Hayes was re-signed for $7 million per year, he outplayed the oft-injured Long since 2014. Doubt Brockers gets a massive contract, though LA wants to reach an agreement. They manufactured former #7 overall pick Barron with a fourth and sixth round pick in the 2015 draft, and over 2/3 of the season he was pacing for top 3, 100 solo tackle numbers. SLB Ayers relatively cheap. Same with rotational, depth DE Coples, who was a Quinn teammate at North Carolina and may have been miscast as a 3-4 OLB with the Jets. UFA depth CB Roberson was thought to be a potential day two pick until running a disappointing 40 and falling all the way out of the 2014 draft.
I don't see this like a Herschel Walker type trade that blows up three straight drafts. This year hurts, but if Snead-Fish manufacture a franchise QB, which you generally can't beg, borrow or steal to get one (Warner, Brady, Romo, Carr, Dalton, Brees, Wilson the exceptions, how many failures are there on a percentage basis compared to them, drafting a #1 overall QB since the merger has a favorable hit percentage, a QB like Wentz wouldn't fail for laziness like Jamarcbust, imo, and some that may be viewed as borderline, such as Stafford, might look better and be more highly thought of behind a top quarter defense if LA can get to that level), that makes a lot of other things better. Next year, they lose the first (also a third, but likely a comp pick backstopping the Rams will be the pick changing hands, also may get a fourth round comp for McLeod going to DET). In other words, they COULD have a second, third and two fourths. Its not like there is going to be this yawning abyss that will interrupt their draft history for many years. Basically a one year hiccup.
The Rams have a lot of cap money, by design, they didn't splurge in free agency (like successful organizations such as GB, BAL, typically NE excepting Revis - who, incidentally all have franchise QBs
), instead opting to hold it back to have room to sign their own. That is what they are saving it for. I think BAL has more comp picks than any team in the last decade. By drafting well, Rams not only added and developed Jenkins, but his replacement Gaines, so they weren't held hostage and forced to overpay borderline Revis money, and can reap the dividends with comp picks. The RG3 trade will still pay dividends in 2017, a half decade after the original pick. External signings impact the comp pick award formula, but they have just added Coples and TEN CB Sensabaugh, both modest contracts. What they didn't have was a QB.
Most of those guys on your looming free agent list are 25 or younger. So they could play until 30 (some less, some more, some about that):
2016 (25), 2017 (26), 2018 (27), 2019 (28), 2020 (29) & 2021 (30) gets most of that group not over 30 (or less). If Wentz or Goff is rolling in a few years, that could be a half decade they are together, maybe more in some cases? Again, after the 2016 draft hiccup, that is a half decade's worth of future drafts falling within this projected window/timeline.
The Rams haven't been to the playoffs in a decade plus. A lot of that is the legacy of bungled, heinous drafts and free agent decisions by Martz, Linehan, Spagnuolo, GMs Zygmunt/Shaw and Devaney, I don't think Fisher and Snead should be responsible for the "sins of the fathers visited upon the children", the reset button started clocking in 2012, but the reality is, it has been a long, long, long time since they had a high level of success (GSOT). From my perspective, absolutely, the opportunity to compete for the playoffs (and if in, anything can happen) is an appealing one, even if at the cost of effectively the 2016 draft.
I do fault Fisher and Snead for not doing more earlier. But sometimes you have to take the bad with the good. They also drafted Donald and Gurley. If Wentz or Goff were to be ROY (not an outstanding skill position class, though the RB looks like he could be special), that would be three straight years. Has that ever happened? So if so, good drafting.
IMO, a big disconnect is on the value of the QBs. The consensus may be that they aren't special, or as good as others in recent years. But Mayock has come around and stated he thinks Wentz and Goff could both have better careers than their 2015 QB peers and counterparts that went 1-2. He and Cosell have likened Wentz's physical and athletic upside to Luck (they acknowledge the level of competition difference - but McNair, Flacco, Romo, Warner, Roethlisberger all played for some form of lower level competition, no doubt many others). Nobody thinks in a vacuum. We all think WITH thoughts. Most don't personally scout the prospects, and rely on pundits and the like. Because of the consensus, the deal is typically looked askance at. If more viewed it from the perspective of Mayock and Cosell, and thinking with THOSE thoughts, some may come to different conclusions. Certainly if the QB plays at a high level, they will change over time, regardless.
