Randy Moss, WR, New England Patriots (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2010 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Randy Moss, WR, New England Patriots

Player Page Link: Randy Moss Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

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In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

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[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[dansav]

86/1307/14tds

With Wes Welker out (I actually think Welker won't play this year) Moss will naturally have more targets this year.

This season could be an interesting one for Moss...... If he wants one more big contract.

I think the sky is the limit for a healthy Moss.

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

Moss's stats the past 3seasons:

2007: 159 targets, 98 catches (61.6%), 1493 yds (15.2 ypc), 23 TDs

2008: 126 targets, 69 catches (54.8%), 1008 yds (14.6 ypc), 11 TDs

2009: 138 targets, 83 catches (60.1%), 1264 yds (15.2 ypc), 13 TDs

Drilling deeper into 2009 stats:

1st 9 games: 94 targets, 58 catches, 891 yds, 7 TDs ---> 10.4 targets per game, 61.7% catch rate, 15.4 ypc

Last 7 games: 44 targets, 25 catches, 373 yds, 6 TDs ---> 6.3 targets per game, 56.8% catch rate, 14.9 ypc

So my question for Patriots fans is this: how much of Moss's late season performance decline can be attributed to his health? Or bad weather? It's tough to tell from game logs.....though if memory serves his back problems appeared more severe later in the season. Or was he simply "dogging it" in the 2nd half of the year?

Given that the Moss of the last 7 games looked statistically more like the Moss of 2008.....this seems important for projecting Moss's 2010 performance.

I have no projections yet - just wanted to get some facts on the table first and hear from Pats' fans.

 

[B. Nugget]

Moss's stats the past 3seasons:2007: 159 targets, 98 catches (61.6%), 1493 yds (15.2 ypc), 23 TDs2008: 126 targets, 69 catches (54.8%), 1008 yds (14.6 ypc), 11 TDs2009: 138 targets, 83 catches (60.1%), 1264 yds (15.2 ypc), 13 TDsDrilling deeper into 2009 stats:1st 9 games: 94 targets, 58 catches, 891 yds, 7 TDs ---> 10.4 targets per game, 61.7% catch rate, 15.4 ypcLast 7 games: 44 targets, 25 catches, 373 yds, 6 TDs ---> 6.3 targets per game, 56.8% catch rate, 14.9 ypcSo my question for Patriots fans is this: how much of Moss's late season performance decline can be attributed to his health? Or bad weather? It's tough to tell from game logs.....though if memory serves his back problems appeared more severe later in the season. Or was he simply "dogging it" in the 2nd half of the year?Given that the Moss of the last 7 games looked statistically more like the Moss of 2008.....this seems important for projecting Moss's 2010 performance.I have no projections yet - just wanted to get some facts on the table first and hear from Pats' fans.

So many are sleeping on Moss or selling low on him because of age that it is almost criminal. Sure he is getting older, but Randy Moss at 85% (of what he once was) is still better than 100% of the guys that he is being traded for in dynasties, good teams are bailing on him and his potential 1-3 remaining top 10 seasons.This guy is going to win some leagues for owners who stuck with him or bought low, In fact, I sold him after his 23 TD season and I'm trying to reacquire him in that same league because the owner wants to unload him. Give me a cheap Moss to pair with a guys like Marshall and Boldin everyday of the week at his current cost.I'm thinking Brady will force feed him if the others don't produce, so I see a similar stats to last year with a chance for much, much more in his contract year. Does anyone think the Pats won't pass a ton again this year?

 

[Todem]

Love Moss this season.

84 receptions 1300 yards 17 TD's.

A huge bump in TD's as Brady is 100% and ready to show everyone that he is the best. I can't tell how many times Brady flat out missed hitting Moss on sure TD's last season.

That will change this year. Buy low!!!!!

 

[Thomsen]

Not sure about Moss this year, AFC East is getting really strong and both Miami and NYJ has very good cornerbacks. But still, without Welker, Moss immediately gets a bump in targets. 150 seems about right and Brady did miss some opportunities last season, so I expect Moss' TD total to be better. Much depends on his motivation, but I don't think this will be a problem, as he still wants a ring bad.

88 rec, 1300, 15 TDs.

 

[Blackjacks]

I am one that sold Moss (I guess what some would say low) due to me not liking him at all going into this year. He feels unwanted in Boston due to them not wanting to extend his contract and unlike some competitors in professional sports when Moss isn't happy he throws in in the towel.

Throw in that I see them starting the year very bad (like 2-5) and I see Moss's attitude going south quickly.

I also don't think Welker plays this season.

60 catches

1050 yards

8 td's

alot better first half of a season than his 2nd half

 

[FavreAndAwayAnIdiot]

I have a feeling Moss finds the wall this season. Now is the time to sell as his perceived value will never be higher.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

If you're not getting better, you're getting worse. I'm not sure the Patriots have been getting better the past couple of seasons and I'm not sure that trend is going to turn around this year. One of these years, whether it's this one or the next the mighty will fall in that division and with it all of these elite stats which help them remain close to the very top.

I am predicting a slight decline in overall numbers for Moss.

75 receptions for 1125 yards and 9td's

 

[Air Stich]

Not sure about Moss this year, AFC East is getting really strong and both Miami and NYJ has very good cornerbacks. 88 rec, 1300, 15 TDs.

I'm seeing more and more of this. A lot of people are downplaying Moss this year, but then post amazing stats for him. I'd snag Moss with the #1 overall pick without hesitation if I knew I was getting 1,300 and 15 TDs. The crazy thing is that no one will be surprised if he gets them. He wants to be the best WR ever and that means breaking Jerry Rices record of 197 receiving TDs. Moss is 48 TDs away and I can see him being highly productive for 3 more seasons. He's only 33 this year and has a Jerry Rice-like training regime.He's one of the greatest WR talents, catching passes from one of the best QBs, playing for a great coach. I'd take AJ and Fitz first, but I have a tough time taking any other WR ahead of him.Projections:80 receptions, 1,300 yards, 11 TDs.

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

Drilling deeper into 2009 stats:1st 9 games: 94 targets, 58 catches, 891 yds, 7 TDs ---> 10.4 targets per game, 61.7% catch rate, 15.4 ypcLast 7 games: 44 targets, 25 catches, 373 yds, 6 TDs ---> 6.3 targets per game, 56.8% catch rate, 14.9 ypcSo my question for Patriots fans is this: how much of Moss's late season performance decline can be attributed to his health? Or bad weather? It's tough to tell from game logs.....though if memory serves his back problems appeared more severe later in the season. Or was he simply "dogging it" in the 2nd half of the year?Given that the Moss of the last 7 games looked statistically more like the Moss of 2008.....this seems important for projecting Moss's 2010 performance.I have no projections yet - just wanted to get some facts on the table first and hear from Pats' fans.

Nothing on this?

 

[karmarooster]

Drilling deeper into 2009 stats:

1st 9 games: 94 targets, 58 catches, 891 yds, 7 TDs ---> 10.4 targets per game, 61.7% catch rate, 15.4 ypc

Last 7 games: 44 targets, 25 catches, 373 yds, 6 TDs ---> 6.3 targets per game, 56.8% catch rate, 14.9 ypc

So my question for Patriots fans is this: how much of Moss's late season performance decline can be attributed to his health? Or bad weather? It's tough to tell from game logs.....though if memory serves his back problems appeared more severe later in the season. Or was he simply "dogging it" in the 2nd half of the year?

Given that the Moss of the last 7 games looked statistically more like the Moss of 2008.....this seems important for projecting Moss's 2010 performance.

I have no projections yet - just wanted to get some facts on the table first and hear from Pats' fans.

Nothing on this?

It's sort of a chicken/egg thing - he started dogging it because he wasn't getting as many targets as he likes, so he got fewer targets, so he dogged it more... some excerpts from the FBGs game summaries:

Week 12 - This was another forgettable night for Moss with dropped balls, half-effort routes, and very little effect on the outcome of the game. Moss did have one long catch on a gain that Brady created by moving around to extend the play, but Moss seemed disinterested on a Brady interception to no one in particular (although Moss was the closest Patriot). He got open deep in the first quarter, but Brady didn't see him. Moss is still in line for some big games against easiest competition down the stretch, but it is unsettling to see his effort waver like it did back in Oakland.

Week 14 - This was a forgettable game for Moss with his most memorable play being a fumble that was recovered by Carolina. Moss had only one catch for 16 yards and fumbled at the end of the play. He did see a few opportunities but couldn't connect with QB Tom Brady on the few chances he had. One of his targets sailed over his hands as he found the soft spot in the defense, sat patiently, but was unable to out-leap and snag the overthrown ball. The other missed opportunity came in the end zone where Brady overthrew a leaping Moss once again, but a holding penalty was called giving the Patriots the ball at the Carolina 2 yard line. Moss wasn't running his routes with much urgency and made some mistakes that could have cost the Patriots this game as two of the Patriots three turnovers were a result of his apathetic play.

That he went 80/1250/13 with numerous problems is remarkable. 1. Brady was out of sync all season

2. Welker was targeted over 160 times

3. Moss gave no effort during some games

....and he still finished as a top 3 WR. I've recently bought Moss in dynasty fully aware that he's probably only got 1 year, but he's an incredible WR2. However, in re-draft his value is about where it should be around WR2/3. After AJ, he's basically tied with Fitz IMO.

85 catches, 1,300 yards, 14 TDs

 

[David Yudkin]

Drilling deeper into 2009 stats:1st 9 games: 94 targets, 58 catches, 891 yds, 7 TDs ---> 10.4 targets per game, 61.7% catch rate, 15.4 ypcLast 7 games: 44 targets, 25 catches, 373 yds, 6 TDs ---> 6.3 targets per game, 56.8% catch rate, 14.9 ypcSo my question for Patriots fans is this: how much of Moss's late season performance decline can be attributed to his health? Or bad weather? It's tough to tell from game logs.....though if memory serves his back problems appeared more severe later in the season. Or was he simply "dogging it" in the 2nd half of the year?Given that the Moss of the last 7 games looked statistically more like the Moss of 2008.....this seems important for projecting Moss's 2010 performance.I have no projections yet - just wanted to get some facts on the table first and hear from Pats' fans.

Nothing on this?

Since you asked . . .Moss played banged up the entire second half of the season with shoulder, knee, and back injuries. If people view that as a chronic or age-related issue, than lower your expectations.Brady also missed Moss on 6-8 easy touchdowns had the ball been catchable. Brady clearly did not have his accuracy back on track and at times he was off his game. Had Moss reeled in some of those catches, Moss could easily have been the #1 fantaasy receiver again last year.Moss is driven to win a Super Bowl (and this has been reported on recently). I don't see him phoning it in, as he wants to win and he wants a new contract. New England traditionally lets contracts run their course and then negotiate based on how a player looks heading forward. I would not rule out Moss returning to the Pats after the year if he still is healthy and productive.

 

[kremenull]

The next time someone says that Dez Bryant, or any other WR is as good as Moss coming out of college......Just look at this please......And bow down!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EU5AJj2HeoM

Bounce-back monster year for "The Freak", most likely his finale in Beantown

91 rec

1275 yds

13 TDs

 

[Blackjacks]

Drilling deeper into 2009 stats:1st 9 games: 94 targets, 58 catches, 891 yds, 7 TDs ---> 10.4 targets per game, 61.7% catch rate, 15.4 ypcLast 7 games: 44 targets, 25 catches, 373 yds, 6 TDs ---> 6.3 targets per game, 56.8% catch rate, 14.9 ypcSo my question for Patriots fans is this: how much of Moss's late season performance decline can be attributed to his health? Or bad weather? It's tough to tell from game logs.....though if memory serves his back problems appeared more severe later in the season. Or was he simply "dogging it" in the 2nd half of the year?Given that the Moss of the last 7 games looked statistically more like the Moss of 2008.....this seems important for projecting Moss's 2010 performance.I have no projections yet - just wanted to get some facts on the table first and hear from Pats' fans.

Nothing on this?

Since you asked . . .Moss played banged up the entire second half of the season with shoulder, knee, and back injuries. If people view that as a chronic or age-related issue, than lower your expectations.Brady also missed Moss on 6-8 easy touchdowns had the ball been catchable. Brady clearly did not have his accuracy back on track and at times he was off his game. Had Moss reeled in some of those catches, Moss could easily have been the #1 fantaasy receiver again last year.Moss is driven to win a Super Bowl (and this has been reported on recently). I don't see him phoning it in, as he wants to win and he wants a new contract. New England traditionally lets contracts run their course and then negotiate based on how a player looks heading forward. I would not rule out Moss returning to the Pats after the year if he still is healthy and productive.

Davis, answer me this. If Moss is very driven to win a superbowl (which I believe you that he is) and the Pats start off 2-5. do you see him throwing in the towel?Let's look at this schedule1 Sun, Sep 12 Cincinnati 1:00 PM 2 Sun, Sep 19 at NY Jets 4:15 PM 3 Sun, Sep 26 Buffalo 1:00 PM they will win4 Mon, Oct 4 at Miami 8:30 PM 6 Sun, Oct 17 Baltimore 1:00 PM 7 Sun, Oct 24 at San Diego 4:15 PM 8 Sun, Oct 31 Minnesota 4:15 PM 9 Sun, Nov 7 at Cleveland 1:00 PM they should win10 Sun, Nov 14 at Pittsburgh 8:20 PM 11 Sun, Nov 21 Indianapolis 4:15 PM 8 out of their first 10 games are very difficult. Let's say they are 4-6 (very realistic). Do you see Moss playing out the year as a top flight wr?

 

[fightingillini]

Moss will be difficult to figure out this year. If Welker isn't ready to start the season (likely), you can figure Moss for many double teams. Brady for the most part didn't have that great of a year, and missed Moss on many occasions last year. Depends on which Moss shows up. Still think he will have a solid season. High risk high reward player this year.

80 rec, 1250 yds, 13 TD

 

[Creed Bratton]

I think moss is in line for a pretty good season this year. The patriots are going to continue to be a pass heavy offense and moss is good enough to produce despite the double teams with brady throwing him the ball. As far as motivation, i believe moss has stated he doesn't want to retire so i think he's in a contract season. With brady being fully healthy i think he's one of the less riskier wide receivers out there who certainly has as much upside as anyone else in the league.

95 receptions for 1350 yards and 13 touchdowns.

 

[B. Nugget]

I am one that sold Moss (I guess what some would say low) due to me not liking him at all going into this year. He feels unwanted in Boston due to them not wanting to extend his contract and unlike some competitors in professional sports when Moss isn't happy he throws in in the towel. Throw in that I see them starting the year very bad (like 2-5) and I see Moss's attitude going south quickly.I also don't think Welker plays this season.60 catches 1050 yards8 td'salot better first half of a season than his 2nd half

So in a PPR, projecting 200+ pts is you not liking him this year?

 

[Lake Titicaca]

Davis, answer me this. If Moss is very driven to win a superbowl (which I believe you that he is) and the Pats start off 2-5. do you see him throwing in the towel?

Let's look at this schedule

1 Sun, Sep 12 Cincinnati 1:00 PM

2 Sun, Sep 19 at NY Jets 4:15 PM

3 Sun, Sep 26 Buffalo 1:00 PM they will win

4 Mon, Oct 4 at Miami 8:30 PM

6 Sun, Oct 17 Baltimore 1:00 PM

7 Sun, Oct 24 at San Diego 4:15 PM

8 Sun, Oct 31 Minnesota 4:15 PM

9 Sun, Nov 7 at Cleveland 1:00 PM they should win

10 Sun, Nov 14 at Pittsburgh 8:20 PM

11 Sun, Nov 21 Indianapolis 4:15 PM

8 out of their first 10 games are very difficult. Let's say they are 4-6 (very realistic). Do you see Moss playing out the year as a top flight wr?

Isn't this were the contract year come in as extra insurance against that?

 

[kremenull]

Moss will be difficult to figure out this year. If Welker isn't ready to start the season (likely), you can figure Moss for many double teams. Brady for the most part didn't have that great of a year, and missed Moss on many occasions last year. Depends on which Moss shows up. Still think he will have a solid season. High risk high reward player this year.80 rec, 1250 yds, 13 TD

The projection is fine, but I think you have it backwards in some of your commentary. Moss is the one who opens things up for Welker, not vice-versa. Welker is never doubled, Moss is doubled on a regular basis or at least the safety and/or LB shades over to his side underneath and/or over the top, essentially still a double (bracket coverage). Not much will change with regards to coverage with or without Welker. Welker simply capitalizes on the single-coverage that he receives, he's not a difference-maker who teams have to change their scheme for like Moss.

 

[KGB]

Moss will be difficult to figure out this year. If Welker isn't ready to start the season (likely), you can figure Moss for many double teams. Brady for the most part didn't have that great of a year, and missed Moss on many occasions last year. Depends on which Moss shows up. Still think he will have a solid season. High risk high reward player this year.80 rec, 1250 yds, 13 TD

The projection is fine, but I think you have it backwards in some of your commentary. Moss is the one who opens things up for Welker, not vice-versa. Welker is never doubled, Moss is doubled on a regular basis or at least the safety and/or LB shades over to his side underneath and/or over the top, essentially still a double (bracket coverage). Not much will change with regards to coverage with or without Welker. Welker simply capitalizes on the single-coverage that he receives, he's not a difference-maker who teams have to change their scheme for like Moss.

 

[David Yudkin]

Drilling deeper into 2009 stats:1st 9 games: 94 targets, 58 catches, 891 yds, 7 TDs ---> 10.4 targets per game, 61.7% catch rate, 15.4 ypcLast 7 games: 44 targets, 25 catches, 373 yds, 6 TDs ---> 6.3 targets per game, 56.8% catch rate, 14.9 ypcSo my question for Patriots fans is this: how much of Moss's late season performance decline can be attributed to his health? Or bad weather? It's tough to tell from game logs.....though if memory serves his back problems appeared more severe later in the season. Or was he simply "dogging it" in the 2nd half of the year?Given that the Moss of the last 7 games looked statistically more like the Moss of 2008.....this seems important for projecting Moss's 2010 performance.I have no projections yet - just wanted to get some facts on the table first and hear from Pats' fans.

Nothing on this?

Since you asked . . .Moss played banged up the entire second half of the season with shoulder, knee, and back injuries. If people view that as a chronic or age-related issue, than lower your expectations.Brady also missed Moss on 6-8 easy touchdowns had the ball been catchable. Brady clearly did not have his accuracy back on track and at times he was off his game. Had Moss reeled in some of those catches, Moss could easily have been the #1 fantaasy receiver again last year.Moss is driven to win a Super Bowl (and this has been reported on recently). I don't see him phoning it in, as he wants to win and he wants a new contract. New England traditionally lets contracts run their course and then negotiate based on how a player looks heading forward. I would not rule out Moss returning to the Pats after the year if he still is healthy and productive.

Davis, answer me this. If Moss is very driven to win a superbowl (which I believe you that he is) and the Pats start off 2-5. do you see him throwing in the towel?Let's look at this schedule1 Sun, Sep 12 Cincinnati 1:00 PM 2 Sun, Sep 19 at NY Jets 4:15 PM 3 Sun, Sep 26 Buffalo 1:00 PM they will win4 Mon, Oct 4 at Miami 8:30 PM 6 Sun, Oct 17 Baltimore 1:00 PM 7 Sun, Oct 24 at San Diego 4:15 PM 8 Sun, Oct 31 Minnesota 4:15 PM 9 Sun, Nov 7 at Cleveland 1:00 PM they should win10 Sun, Nov 14 at Pittsburgh 8:20 PM 11 Sun, Nov 21 Indianapolis 4:15 PM 8 out of their first 10 games are very difficult. Let's say they are 4-6 (very realistic). Do you see Moss playing out the year as a top flight wr?

I happen to think that the supposed demise of the Patriots has been greatly exaggerated, so I don't see them at 4-6 after 10 games.I believe Moss will have a decent year . . . not approaching 2007 but similar to 2009.

 

[Blackjacks]

Drilling deeper into 2009 stats:1st 9 games: 94 targets, 58 catches, 891 yds, 7 TDs ---> 10.4 targets per game, 61.7% catch rate, 15.4 ypcLast 7 games: 44 targets, 25 catches, 373 yds, 6 TDs ---> 6.3 targets per game, 56.8% catch rate, 14.9 ypcSo my question for Patriots fans is this: how much of Moss's late season performance decline can be attributed to his health? Or bad weather? It's tough to tell from game logs.....though if memory serves his back problems appeared more severe later in the season. Or was he simply "dogging it" in the 2nd half of the year?Given that the Moss of the last 7 games looked statistically more like the Moss of 2008.....this seems important for projecting Moss's 2010 performance.I have no projections yet - just wanted to get some facts on the table first and hear from Pats' fans.

Nothing on this?

Since you asked . . .Moss played banged up the entire second half of the season with shoulder, knee, and back injuries. If people view that as a chronic or age-related issue, than lower your expectations.Brady also missed Moss on 6-8 easy touchdowns had the ball been catchable. Brady clearly did not have his accuracy back on track and at times he was off his game. Had Moss reeled in some of those catches, Moss could easily have been the #1 fantaasy receiver again last year.Moss is driven to win a Super Bowl (and this has been reported on recently). I don't see him phoning it in, as he wants to win and he wants a new contract. New England traditionally lets contracts run their course and then negotiate based on how a player looks heading forward. I would not rule out Moss returning to the Pats after the year if he still is healthy and productive.

Davis, answer me this. If Moss is very driven to win a superbowl (which I believe you that he is) and the Pats start off 2-5. do you see him throwing in the towel?Let's look at this schedule1 Sun, Sep 12 Cincinnati 1:00 PM 2 Sun, Sep 19 at NY Jets 4:15 PM 3 Sun, Sep 26 Buffalo 1:00 PM they will win4 Mon, Oct 4 at Miami 8:30 PM 6 Sun, Oct 17 Baltimore 1:00 PM 7 Sun, Oct 24 at San Diego 4:15 PM 8 Sun, Oct 31 Minnesota 4:15 PM 9 Sun, Nov 7 at Cleveland 1:00 PM they should win10 Sun, Nov 14 at Pittsburgh 8:20 PM 11 Sun, Nov 21 Indianapolis 4:15 PM 8 out of their first 10 games are very difficult. Let's say they are 4-6 (very realistic). Do you see Moss playing out the year as a top flight wr?

I happen to think that the supposed demise of the Patriots has been greatly exaggerated, so I don't see them at 4-6 after 10 games.I believe Moss will have a decent year . . . not approaching 2007 but similar to 2009.

I see them losing at the Jets, SD, Pitt and at home against Balt, Minn and Indy (and that still leaves beating Cinncy at NE and Miami at Miami, no give me's)

 

[Grahamburn]

What are some of the best fantasy seasons for a 33 year old WR?

Randy Moss should be capable of something similar or better with Brady another year removed from his inury.

 

[David Yudkin]

What are some of the best fantasy seasons for a 33 year old WR?

Randy Moss should be capable of something similar or better with Brady another year removed from his inury.

I'm guessing Moss won't match Rice's 122-1848-15 at age 33.

 

[Creed Bratton]

What are some of the best fantasy seasons for a 33 year old WR?

Randy Moss should be capable of something similar or better with Brady another year removed from his inury.

I'm guessing Moss won't match Rice's 122-1848-15 at age 33.

It's not probable, but it could be possible.

 

[Banger]

What are some of the best fantasy seasons for a 33 year old WR?

Randy Moss should be capable of something similar or better with Brady another year removed from his inury.

I'm guessing Moss won't match Rice's 122-1848-15 at age 33.

It's not probable, but it could be possible.

he's never had that many catches, never had that many yards but he has had 15+ Tds a few times so if he matches anything it may be the TDs.

 

[Grahamburn]

What are some of the best fantasy seasons for a 33 year old WR?

Randy Moss should be capable of something similar or better with Brady another year removed from his inury.

I'm guessing Moss won't match Rice's 122-1848-15 at age 33.

I've been playing around with the Historical Data Dominator. WRs at age 33 out of 100. I don't see him replicating Jerry Rice's 1995 epic season either, but Randy might be the only WR that could.Jerry Rice: 122-1848-15

Terrell Owens: 85-1180-13

Marvin Harrison: 82-1146-12

Cris Carter: 78-1011-12

Tim Brown: 90-1344-6

Keenan McCardell: 84-1174-8

Jimmy Smith: 80-1027-7

Tony Martin: 66-1181-6

Those first four are pretty much the only seasons worthy of Randy Moss' ADP. The other four are the next best thing since Jerry's monster 1995. It's very telling. Obviously Randy is a better WR than every one of these players other than Rice. I'd expect Randy to be in the double digit TD area and around the 1,200 yard mark, but the lack of big seasons at age 33 would make anyone picking Randy in the late 1st/early 2nd a little nervous.

ETA: For purposes there are more big seasons for 34 year old WRs than there were for 33 year olds.

 

[David Yudkin]

What are some of the best fantasy seasons for a 33 year old WR?

Randy Moss should be capable of something similar or better with Brady another year removed from his inury.

I'm guessing Moss won't match Rice's 122-1848-15 at age 33.

I've been playing around with the Historical Data Dominator. WRs at age 33 out of 100. I don't see him replicating Jerry Rice's 1995 epic season either, but Randy might be the only WR that could.Jerry Rice: 122-1848-15

Terrell Owens: 85-1180-13

Marvin Harrison: 82-1146-12

Cris Carter: 78-1011-12

Tim Brown: 90-1344-6

Keenan McCardell: 84-1174-8

Jimmy Smith: 80-1027-7

Tony Martin: 66-1181-6

Those first four are pretty much the only seasons worthy of Randy Moss' ADP. The other four are the next best thing since Jerry's monster 1995. It's very telling. Obviously Randy is a better WR than every one of these players other than Rice. I'd expect Randy to be in the double digit TD area and around the 1,200 yard mark, but the lack of big seasons at age 33 would make anyone picking Randy in the late 1st/early 2nd a little nervous.

The season by Owens looks about right . . .

 

[Grahamburn]

1- Cincinnati Bengals

2- at New York Jets

3- Buffalo Bills

4- at Miami Dolphins

6- Baltimore Ravens

7- at San Diego Chargers

8- Minnesota Vikings

9- at Cleveland Browns

10- at Pittsburgh Steelers

11- Indianapolis Colts

12- at Detroit Lions

13- New York Jets

14- at Chicago Bears

15- Green Bay Packers

16- at Buffalo Bills



That playoff schedule looks really gross for the passing game. I know he's shredded the Bills lately, and had a huge game in a snowstorm last season, but those could all be windy, snowy, bitterly cold games.

Two games during the regular season against Revis, as well as the Bengals and Ravens who were both pretty good defending the pass last season. It's not shaping up to be a huge year for Randy. With the age, schedule, and attitude concerns he's looking like a risky pick early in the draft.

Compared with a player of similar ADP, Larry Fitzgerald, and it's almost a no brainer. I realize he comes with his own set of risks, but the schedule looks like cake for a player of his caliber.

1- at St. Louis Rams

2- at Atlanta Falcons

3- Oakland Raiders

4- at San Diego Chargers

5- New Orleans Saints

7- at Seattle Seahawks

8- Tampa Bay Buccaneers

9- at Minnesota Vikings

10- Seattle Seahawks

11- at Kansas City Chiefs

12- San Francisco 49ers

13- St. Louis Rams

14- Denver Broncos

15- at Carolina Panthers

16- Dallas Cowboys

 

[Grahamburn]

With reports of Moss abusing people in training camp, Welker apparently approaching 100%, and NE's D likely to struggle at stopping offenses, should Moss be creeping up draft boards?

These guys have got to be hungry for one more shot at a championship, they're going to need to throw the ball a ton to win games, and Brady should improve on his timing and accuracy this year being another year removed from his injury. It's been said, but he flat out missed Randy for 6+ TDs last year.

Moss might be lethal again in 2010. I'm really starting to warm up to his chances at finishing #1 overall.

 

[jurb26]

With reports of Moss abusing people in training camp, Welker apparently approaching 100%, and NE's D likely to struggle at stopping offenses, should Moss be creeping up draft boards?

These guys have got to be hungry for one more shot at a championship, they're going to need to throw the ball a ton to win games, and Brady should improve on his timing and accuracy this year being another year removed from his injury. It's been said, but he flat out missed Randy for 6+ TDs last year.

Moss might be lethal again in 2010. I'm really starting to warm up to his chances at finishing #1 overall.

Is this really surprising to anyone?I am fully expecting Moss to be lethal again this year. I think 1200+ yds and 14+ TDs for sure. Anything beyond that will be gravy. A. Johnson is getting all the hype as the top WR and he has earned that. I still think Moss is going to be the #1 WR though. The guy played injured all season and his QB missed him pretty often on big plays yet he still managed 1260/13.

 

[Grahamburn]

With reports of Moss abusing people in training camp, Welker apparently approaching 100%, and NE's D likely to struggle at stopping offenses, should Moss be creeping up draft boards?

These guys have got to be hungry for one more shot at a championship, they're going to need to throw the ball a ton to win games, and Brady should improve on his timing and accuracy this year being another year removed from his injury. It's been said, but he flat out missed Randy for 6+ TDs last year.

Moss might be lethal again in 2010. I'm really starting to warm up to his chances at finishing #1 overall.

Is this really surprising to anyone?I am fully expecting Moss to be lethal again this year. I think 1200+ yds and 14+ TDs for sure. Anything beyond that will be gravy. A. Johnson is getting all the hype as the top WR and he has earned that. I still think Moss is going to be the #1 WR though. The guy played injured all season and his QB missed him pretty often on big plays yet he still managed 1260/13.

I guess not. Stuff like this:

• Although Patriots first-round CB Devin McCourty has been whipped a few times in practice by WR Randy Moss (who has looked outstanding thus far), the team still seems very pleased with the rookie's progress. He is being penciled into a top-three CB role and should be a big performer on special teams.

If you're waivering on a RB late in the first round, like I am, it might be wise to just pencil Randy Moss in there expecting 1,200 and 12 and hope he has another monster season in him. We all know he's capable of it.

 

[SanDawg]

Having Moss in a 4 man keeper league I was a bit concerned with his age coming into this year as well as talk of him not being focused. The age part is still a bit of a concern, being a keeper league, but the focus I feel will be top notch. The guy is playing for one more contract, he has extreme talent. Some people are forgetting about Brady and Moss and talking about Rodgers/Brees and the Romo's of FF. At WR, AJ, Fitz, CJ and crew take a lot of praise, but let's not forget about these two ole boys playing for contracts. Wanted money = great motivation. I expect Moss to easily get in the 1300 yd and 15 TD range again. One last shot at glory and money could put both of these guys #1 at their positions.

Disclaimer.....I own them both currently in 4 man keeper.

 

[eoMMan]

Drilling deeper into 2009 stats:1st 9 games: 94 targets, 58 catches, 891 yds, 7 TDs ---> 10.4 targets per game, 61.7% catch rate, 15.4 ypcLast 7 games: 44 targets, 25 catches, 373 yds, 6 TDs ---> 6.3 targets per game, 56.8% catch rate, 14.9 ypcSo my question for Patriots fans is this: how much of Moss's late season performance decline can be attributed to his health? Or bad weather? It's tough to tell from game logs.....though if memory serves his back problems appeared more severe later in the season. Or was he simply "dogging it" in the 2nd half of the year?Given that the Moss of the last 7 games looked statistically more like the Moss of 2008.....this seems important for projecting Moss's 2010 performance.I have no projections yet - just wanted to get some facts on the table first and hear from Pats' fans.

Nothing on this?

At first I was wondering why you split his season up as 9 games and then 7 games, but I then looked to see what he did in that week 9:9 recp, 179 yards and 2 TD's

 

[Gopher State]

Moss 1400 and 16 TD's playing for the $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

 

[metal]

Straight Cash Homey

I don't read into this kind of stuff unless its something I know I can count on, and Randy Moss on a contract year is something I can count on.

 

[Fantaholic]

Personally, I think Moss is done here at the end of this year regardless of what happens. I know that seems obvious, but I think even if the Pats did decide to ante up and pay him, he still leaves. Having said that, I believe he and Brady are out to prove that they can still light it up, and I think Moss has enough left in the tank to do it. Anything that I have heard or read to this point says that he is a model citizen in camp so far. Practicing and working hard, even made the Saints corners look silly on a few plays in practice. I do believe his motivation for a great season is to land one more big pay day somewhere and show the Pats organization (who wont pay him) what he's still capable of. Just my opinion for what its worth.

 

[David Yudkin]

Personally, I think Moss is done here at the end of this year regardless of what happens. I know that seems obvious, but I think even if the Pats did decide to ante up and pay him, he still leaves. Having said that, I believe he and Brady are out to prove that they can still light it up, and I think Moss has enough left in the tank to do it. Anything that I have heard or read to this point says that he is a model citizen in camp so far. Practicing and working hard, even made the Saints corners look silly on a few plays in practice. I do believe his motivation for a great season is to land one more big pay day somewhere and show the Pats organization (who wont pay him) what he's still capable of. Just my opinion for what its worth.

IMO, if Moss does well to very well, the Pats will try to keep and pay him fair market value. If he struggles, is only moderately productive, or has a record setting year again, he's gone. The rationale being that if he isn't the same production wise they won't want to pay him and if he really blows up in a good way they won't be able to afford what others would offer him. NE, however, could still frnachise him (if there still is such a thing next year).

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Drilling deeper into 2009 stats:1st 9 games: 94 targets, 58 catches, 891 yds, 7 TDs ---> 10.4 targets per game, 61.7% catch rate, 15.4 ypcLast 7 games: 44 targets, 25 catches, 373 yds, 6 TDs ---> 6.3 targets per game, 56.8% catch rate, 14.9 ypcSo my question for Patriots fans is this: how much of Moss's late season performance decline can be attributed to his health? Or bad weather? It's tough to tell from game logs.....though if memory serves his back problems appeared more severe later in the season. Or was he simply "dogging it" in the 2nd half of the year?Given that the Moss of the last 7 games looked statistically more like the Moss of 2008.....this seems important for projecting Moss's 2010 performance.I have no projections yet - just wanted to get some facts on the table first and hear from Pats' fans.

Nothing on this?

At first I was wondering why you split his season up as 9 games and then 7 games, but I then looked to see what he did in that week 9:9 recp, 179 yards and 2 TD's

I think you're reading some bizarre malice into my post. Since you are being snarky and obnoxious (rather than constructive), I'll split the season into perfect halves.1st 8 games: 78 targets, 49 catches, 712 yds, 5 TDs ---> 10 targets per game, 89 ypg, 63% catch rateLast 8 games: 60 targets, 34 catches, 552 yds, 8 TDs ---> 7.5 targets per game, 69 ypg, 57% catch rateThat's still a significant difference in both usage and production, and still worthy of discussion. Not sure why you felt the need to be a ####.

 

[David Yudkin]

I think you're reading some bizarre malice into my post. Since you are being snarky and obnoxious (rather than constructive), I'll split the season into perfect halves.1st 8 games: 78 targets, 49 catches, 712 yds, 5 TDs ---> 10 targets per game, 89 ypg, 63% catch rateLast 8 games: 60 targets, 34 catches, 552 yds, 8 TDs ---> 7.5 targets per game, 69 ypg, 57% catch rateThat's still a significant difference in both usage and production, and still worthy of discussion. Not sure why you felt the need to be a ####.

For starters, Moss was banged up over the latter part of the season. But more importantly, BRADY was banged up the latter part of the season.1st 8 games: 204-310-2364, 16 TD, 5 INT, 197 FP2nd 8 games: 167-255-2034, 12 TD, 8 INT, 146 FP

 

[Das Boot]

This thread has me considering Moss a little more...

So 2 questions:

1. Anyone have any concerns about the back problems? As many of us know first hand, back problems are a killer.

2. Any concerns about Brady's accuracy this year?... if he missed that many TDs to Moss last year, are those problems definitely solved?

 

[The Jerk]

This thread has me considering Moss a little more...So 2 questions:1. Anyone have any concerns about the back problems? As many of us know first hand, back problems are a killer.2. Any concerns about Brady's accuracy this year?... if he missed that many TDs to Moss last year, are those problems definitely solved?

Brady figures to have improved accuracy and produce better numbers based on the history of players having ACL reconstruction needing a full 18 months to fully recover following an injury. And it stands to reason that more repetition, more ability to just play and not have the injury in the back of his mind would help any player, and in particular a QB.As to the back, while that's more problematic and Moss has a history of struggling with it... I believe you cannot predict that it will be a major hindrance or force Moss out of action. I'm with the "you can't predict injury" crowd on most players, and especially on Moss in a contract year. If he didn't work out as hard prior to last year and if he did take some plays off last year, that figures to change in a contract year.I was one of the people touting the lower end of the prediction range for Brady and Moss last year, despite the die-hard fans touting how Moss and Welker and Brady were finding a new level. My biggest emphasis on being cool on the Patriots offense in 2009 -- other than the obvious Brady injury/recovery -- was that the AFC East defenses and Miami and the Jets as whole franchises were all improving relative to their extremely weak 2007 showing. The continued rise of the Jets and Dolphins are a bigger concern to me than the health of Brady and Moss. However, as much as I don't like to speak highly of Belichick, I have to admit to respecting his tactical adjustment acumen. And I would be surprised if the Patriots don't adapt to what the league and specifically the Jets have done to rein in NE on offense. Football is a game of adjustments. The Patriots offensive pyrotechnics forced a rapid adjustment by defenses playing them -- which could be seen already in late 2007. The pendulum swung further against the Patriots both in scheme and due to injuries to Brady and Welker. However, I see the pendulum swinging back just a little in 2010. I expect Brady to tick up to 30-32 TDs and that should bump Moss up to 14-15 TDs or so.Finally, I'm sure nothing motivates the Patriots -- or in many ways makes them more dangerous -- than the obnoxious hype surrounding the Jets this season. It's interesting to see the huge hype surrounding the Jets and the Ravens while the Patriots and Steelers (who have combined to win four of the past seven Super Bowls) are left largely in the rearview mirror. I understand the Steelers lying low given Ben's suspension, but the Patriots are still the team to beat in the East. People seem to forget that as strong as the Jets finished last season, they were basically a 7-7 team who were gift-wrapped their final two games to make it into the playoffs on tie-breakers. And frankly, anyone who watched the 17-14 win over SD knows that was 90% Chargers lose/10% Jets win. I want to see what happens when the Jets need to play as the hunted, not the hunters.

 

[Largie]

I was one of the people touting the lower end of the prediction range for Brady and Moss last year, despite the die-hard fans touting how Moss and Welker and Brady were finding a new level. My biggest emphasis on being cool on the Patriots offense in 2009 -- other than the obvious Brady injury/recovery -- was that the AFC East defenses and Miami and the Jets as whole franchises were all improving relative to their extremely weak 2007 showing. The continued rise of the Jets and Dolphins are a bigger concern to me than the health of Brady and Moss. However, as much as I don't like to speak highly of Belichick, I have to admit to respecting his tactical adjustment acumen. And I would be surprised if the Patriots don't adapt to what the league and specifically the Jets have done to rein in NE on offense. Football is a game of adjustments. The Patriots offensive pyrotechnics forced a rapid adjustment by defenses playing them -- which could be seen already in late 2007. The pendulum swung further against the Patriots both in scheme and due to injuries to Brady and Welker. However, I see the pendulum swinging back just a little in 2010. I expect Brady to tick up to 30-32 TDs and that should bump Moss up to 14-15 TDs or so.Finally, I'm sure nothing motivates the Patriots -- or in many ways makes them more dangerous -- than the obnoxious hype surrounding the Jets this season. It's interesting to see the huge hype surrounding the Jets and the Ravens while the Patriots and Steelers (who have combined to win four of the past seven Super Bowls) are left largely in the rearview mirror. I understand the Steelers lying low given Ben's suspension, but the Patriots are still the team to beat in the East. People seem to forget that as strong as the Jets finished last season, they were basically a 7-7 team who were gift-wrapped their final two games to make it into the playoffs on tie-breakers. And frankly, anyone who watched the 17-14 win over SD knows that was 90% Chargers lose/10% Jets win. I want to see what happens when the Jets need to play as the hunted, not the hunters.

enjoyed Tom's comment about hating the Jets too....

 

[Grahamburn]

This thread has me considering Moss a little more...So 2 questions:1. Anyone have any concerns about the back problems? As many of us know first hand, back problems are a killer.2. Any concerns about Brady's accuracy this year?... if he missed that many TDs to Moss last year, are those problems definitely solved?

I haven't heard anything about his back being an issue at all this offseason. Brady underthrew him a little bit in the Atlanta game on a deep ball where Moss beat double coverage. It probably should have been pass interference.Brady to Moss on short/intermediate passes looks pretty much unstoppable so far in the preseason, and Welker being healthy should make it difficult for defenses to blanket Randy with coverage.Another 1,200+ yards and 12 TDs type of season should be expected with upside for way more if they can get in synch on the deep stuff.