What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

Rank the rookie WR so far (1 Viewer)

cobalt_27 said:
I don’t understand this narrative at all.  Olsen is 33 and UFA next year.  Funchess is just another guy and also UFA next year.  McCaffery will get his 100+ targets, sure.  But, Moore is the premium WR1 in that offense, 100+ targets this year alone.  More to come as Olsen slows down (or moves on) and Funchess resumes WR2 duties (or moves on).  The fit for Moore is spectacular for 2019 and beyond.
Click to expand...
It was a compliment to Moore! It's a great talent in a great spot, we agree.  : )

 
barackdhouse said:
Completely agree with your logic on how Moore/Sutton will fall. Moore won't make it to 10. 
Click to expand...
Not sure why someone would take Moore at 1.07 when there will be two RB's available there more worthy of that spot. 

 
cloppbeast said:
I loved St Brown before the draft, but now he's a 6th almost 7th round pick, plus his team already took 2 before him. I'm trying to convince myself to like him. After all, he has about the best upside on the Packers roster, and he'll be playing with Rodgers for 3 or 4 or 5 years. But it just feels wrong to fall in love with such a late round guy. 
Click to expand...
Antonio Brown was a sixth round pick.

Now, St. Brown ain't A Brown, but to dismiss a later round pick just because they are a later round pick isn't necessarily a good idea.

 
Idiot Boxer said:
Antonio Brown was a sixth round pick.

Now, St. Brown ain't A Brown, but to dismiss a later round pick just because they are a later round pick isn't necessarily a good idea.
Click to expand...
Antonio Brown is an isolated stat, or an anecdote. You won't make much money using your 2nd round selections on 6th round picks.

 
cloppbeast said:
Miller's not very fast for a little guy, with short little legs; but he's slick. His short strides help him change direction quickly, plus stop and start on a dime. Already having good route technique, he'll be ready day one, but I don't think he has a ton of upside. 
Click to expand...
I like him a lot. His shiftiness and stop start ability really makes DBs uncomfortable. He's very good at getting into their space and making them awkwardly backpedal. Don't like the age or the landing spot though but I'm guessing I'm higher on him than most. I took him at 12 in a draft last night.

 
Stuart Ullman said:
It was a compliment to Moore! It's a great talent in a great spot, we agree.  : )
Click to expand...
? I misread “ton of targets to go around” as meaning there are “a lot of mouths to feed.”  I get the context now and totally agree.  I really think Steve Smith-like production is not that far out of the question in 2019 and beyond.

 
Cam Newton runs on about 15% of called pass plays. As long as he's QB for them, the Panthers will have bottom half pass attempts. 

 
ConnSKINS26 said:
I'm not a Waldman fanboy but I respect the work he puts in, and that he documents it all, so you don't have to live or die by his exact rankings, you can double check his work. 

One of his hits...
Click to expand...
Does he have any impressive calls at WR?  Everytime someone mentions a Waldman "hit", it's at RB.

 
Heep said:
Anyone concerned with A. Miller due to age?  Ive seen it brought up about Ridley, but not Miller, and Miller is older than Ridley by a couple months. 
Click to expand...
His age does concern me as it suggests he is already at his ceiling plus even if he is good he will have a shorter, productive shelf life. Also concerned by his QB--I like Trubisky, but he is still unproven. And he will be at best WR2 on his team and is not likely to ever be a WR1.

I do like his hands and his RAC, but trying to weigh that against these other negatives.

 
az_prof said:
His age does concern me as it suggests he is already at his ceiling plus even if he is good he will have a shorter, productive shelf life. Also concerned by his QB--I like Trubisky, but he is still unproven. And he will be at best WR2 on his team and is not likely to ever be a WR1.

I do like his hands and his RAC, but trying to weigh that against these other negatives.
Click to expand...
He's a good candidate to flip after his rookie year.

 
az_prof said:
His age does concern me as it suggests he is already at his ceiling plus even if he is good he will have a shorter, productive shelf life. Also concerned by his QB--I like Trubisky, but he is still unproven. And he will be at best WR2 on his team and is not likely to ever be a WR1.

I do like his hands and his RAC, but trying to weigh that against these other negatives.
Click to expand...
I'd be far more concerned about one's age if he were a RB than if he's a WR as many of those guys seem to be able to find roles well into their thirties while backs tend to have a lot shorter shelf life.  Considering it takes many WR's 2-3 seasons in the NFL to "Break Out" I'm not sure why his age by itself is indicative of reaching his ceiling or that his shelf life will be shortened.  One could make an argument that he has a limited ceiling because he wasn't a highly regarded recruit out of high school and doesn't have a big school pedigree or have had opportunity to face that level of competition coming out of college but to say it because of his age is just downright silly.  His age should not be listed as a negative, he's 23 for goodness sake and a few years away from his physical peak.  There are so many variables out there that can effect how long a WR's career or how long he's an effective fantasy producer that it is silly to base it on age.  He could be two years younger, come out like gangbusters for two or three years only to have a coaching or QB change and never put up the same type of numbers again or he could be his current age, not do too much for 2-3 years then land in the right situation and flourish for a decade.   

 
massraider said:
Here's what's happening with St. Brown.

The draftnik community collectively overrated him, and now need to project him as a steal, instead of just saying, 'OK, clearly every single team thought less of him than we did, we need to reevaluate.'

The team that drafted him took two WRs and a PUNTER before this guy. Every other team was happy for him to remain undrafted.  

We know, for sure, that no team thought much of him, including the team that drafted him. That data is much more important than fantasy people talking about upside.
Click to expand...


This always happens with guys who have spent years on the devy radar. Not only are people already familiar with their names, but there's years of hype, too. Oh, and lots of people already literally invested in their success, as they've been rostered already. That leads to some serious bias. I don't mean purposeful, malicious agenda-pushing (though I do see that on twitter from some invested devy writers/owners). I mostly mean people subconsiously looking for excuses, finding the most palatable narrative without even realizing what they're doing. This happened with guys like Seastrunk and D'haquille Williams too. Da'Rick Rodgers. To a lesser degree, DGB. 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Worked out alright with JuJu and Jeffery, but yea that is a real phenomenon. Even now Guice/Chubb are going ahead of Michel/Penny in my drafts even though they were picked later. I happen to believe they're actually the better talents, but still there's definitely a "name brand" premium for guys who have been on the radar for years.

 
I was watching a PFF show the other day where they were talking about the NFC North teams drafts.

Being curious to learn more about these other Packers WR from the draft besides St. Brown I listened intently.

J'Mon Moore did have a sickly good 3 cone time at the combine so they mentioned that, his shuttle times and the jumps were good too. They just passed over the fledgling law firm that is Marquez Valdes-Scantling and moved on to express their excitement about St. Brown.

MVS had some really good numbers at the combine and pro day but his college production not at all impressive over 5 years and two teams. How old is this guy now? Seems like another Jeff Janis just with this little bit of information.

Moore seems like a more promising player as at least he put up good numbers in college for two seasons to match the combine metrics.

Still don't know much about these guys and the PFF guys seemed to like St. Brown more than the other two as well. They spent most of the Packers part of their show talking about the cornerbacks they drafted though.

 
EBF said:
Worked out alright with JuJu and Jeffery, but yea that is a real phenomenon. Even now Guice/Chubb are going ahead of Michel/Penny in my drafts even though they were picked later. I happen to believe they're actually the better talents, but still there's definitely a "name brand" premium for guys who have been on the radar for years.
Click to expand...
Juju and Alshon still went with premium picks.

A good example to me, is Tre McBride.  Draftnik darling.  Talked up as a sleeper.  Went in the 7th round.  Drafted over Stefon Diggs, Jamison Crowder, Ty Montgomery, and JJ Nelson.  All drafted in front of him.  

It's one thing if you say, nah, I like the guy drafted a round behind this one guy.  Like Guice over Penny.  You can make that argument.  Once you start taking guys in the 2nd round that are 6th and 7th round picks, it's time to think about why they lasted, and you have to assume the NFL knows something Draft Twitter doesn't know.   Work ethic, whatever.  

I don't even mean to slam St. Brown.  I'll take him if he's at a reasonable spot.  But, The Pack drafted him after their punter.  He was not part of their master draft plan, they were willing to lose him.  

 
massraider said:
Juju and Alshon still went with premium picks.

A good example to me, is Tre McBride.  Draftnik darling.  Talked up as a sleeper.  Went in the 7th round.  Drafted over Stefon Diggs, Jamison Crowder, Ty Montgomery, and JJ Nelson.  All drafted in front of him.  

It's one thing if you say, nah, I like the guy drafted a round behind this one guy.  Like Guice over Penny.  You can make that argument.  Once you start taking guys in the 2nd round that are 6th and 7th round picks, it's time to think about why they lasted, and you have to assume the NFL knows something Draft Twitter doesn't know.   Work ethic, whatever.  

I don't even mean to slam St. Brown.  I'll take him if he's at a reasonable spot.  But, The Pack drafted him after their punter.  He was not part of their master draft plan, they were willing to lose him.  
Click to expand...
I like J'mon Moore. Get a little Greg Jennings feeling from him. I can see him getting on the field at some point.

 
Stuart Ullman said:
I like J'mon Moore. Get a little Greg Jennings feeling from him. I can see him getting on the field at some point.
Click to expand...
I like the value, going 20 picks later than people drafted after him.  Physically, he looks great aside from a 4.6 at combine.  He also ran a 4.49 at his pro day, which the Pack thought made more sense:

GREEN BAY – It’s the job interview of a lifetime, the starting line of the NFL combine’s 40-yard dash, and J’Mon Moore doesn’t feel right. His alignment is off. His sprinter’s stance is wobbly.

Moore gets a bad jump. His first few steps are slow, and he never catches up. When he throttles down 40 yards later, the stopwatch shows two numbers he’s never seen together side by side: 4.6.

As in a 4.6 seconds.

“I had never ran 4.6 in my life,” he said.

In the time it takes for a punt to land, weeks of preparation felt wasted. Never mind his back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons at Missouri. Moore knew that 4.6 had the power to stain his draft stock. For a receiver hoping to be drafted, 4.6 is a scarlet letter.

But if Moore showed nothing else in college, it’s that he can handle adversity. “I’m a player,” Moore explained, “who definitely knows how to respond when I’m being tested.” Did it early in his career when he arrived on campus expecting to catch passes, only to be handed a redshirt. Did it after temporarily losing his starting job as a junior.

This is his career pattern: When J’Mon Moore’s path goes sideways, he finds a way to course correct.

“When I ran that at the combine,” Moore said, “I actually was glad that I did because not only did it put a fire underneath me that I needed, but it just made me go that much harder at the combine for the rest of the day. So I ran 4.6, I know I don’t run 4.6. I come out and play fast. I know I can run. So me running 4.6, that’s fine. I had to bite that bullet, and I had to move on.”

The Green Bay Packers drafted Moore with their first pick Saturday, No. 133 overall in the fourth round, in part because of how he moved on from what could have been a disastrous job interview.

They drafted him because when he toed the 40-yard dash start line at his pro day, Moore was ready. He ran a 4.49-second 40 that day, a time Packers college scouting director Jon-Eric Sullivan confirmed Saturday. It was the athleticism Moore showed at other phases during the combine — his 38-inch vertical leap ranked fourth among receivers — and also the speed he flashed on film.

“Because he plays fast on tape,” Sullivan said. “Forty times are great, and obviously we all covet speed. But when you watch him play the game on film, there’s never a time when you say, ‘Well, this guy looks like he can’t run.’ It’s actually quite the opposite.

“I was surprised that he only ran 4.49.”
Click to expand...

 
EBF said:
I'm down on this WR class. It's the worst I've seen in a long time. Usually I like some of the round 2-3 guys, but this year I'm down on most of them. Moore looks pretty good. I think Sutton is a boom-or-bust guy, but has Colston potential. I think Ridley and Kirk are probably role players. Coutee looks like a good flyer. I wouldn't roster any of the rest unless I got them at a crazy discount.
Click to expand...
Any thoughts on a guy like Callaway? I haven't heard much talk about him, maybe it's due to his off the field problems. 

 
dipandglide said:
Any thoughts on a guy like Callaway? I haven't heard much talk about him, maybe it's due to his off the field problems. 
Click to expand...
Definitely has some potential as a vertical threat. His skill set reminds me of people like Donte Stallworth and Greg Jennings (shorter WRs with good vertical speed), but I think his talent is a bit overstated and then you have the character stuff to boot. You have to wonder if he can even stay on the field. He had problems at Florida and then the rumors of a failed drug test at the combine. Seems like it's Charles Rogers/Justin Blackmon/Josh Gordon all over again, but with a lot less talent.

I grabbed a lot of Tyreek Hill shares in 2016, so I'm not necessarily against character risk, but Hill was more dynamic than Callaway and much cheaper to acquire. He was typically a UDFA or late pick in my leagues. On the other hand, Callaway has been going in the late 2nd of my drafts. I don't think I like him enough to take him that high. There are other good players available there, so I don't feel like I need to gamble.

I'm working on my top 24 list and it looks like there are only going to be 5-6 WRs on it. It's inevitable that some of the WRs from this class will succeed, but looking at it today, it's just not a group that I'm excited about.

 
EBF said:
Definitely has some potential as a vertical threat. His skill set reminds me of people like Donte Stallworth and Greg Jennings (shorter WRs with good vertical speed), but I think his talent is a bit overstated and then you have the character stuff to boot. You have to wonder if he can even stay on the field. He had problems at Florida and then the rumors of a failed drug test at the combine. Seems like it's Charles Rogers/Justin Blackmon/Josh Gordon all over again, but with a lot less talent.

I grabbed a lot of Tyreek Hill shares in 2016, so I'm not necessarily against character risk, but Hill was more dynamic than Callaway and much cheaper to acquire. He was typically a UDFA or late pick in my leagues. On the other hand, Callaway has been going in the late 2nd of my drafts. I don't think I like him enough to take him that high. There are other good players available there, so I don't feel like I need to gamble.

I'm working on my top 24 list and it looks like there are only going to be 5-6 WRs on it. It's inevitable that some of the WRs from this class will succeed, but looking at it today, it's just not a group that I'm excited about.
Click to expand...
You turned me onto Hill and JuJu early. You need to get that top 24 list out! Thanks in advance. 

 
EBF said:
Definitely has some potential as a vertical threat. His skill set reminds me of people like Donte Stallworth and Greg Jennings (shorter WRs with good vertical speed), but I think his talent is a bit overstated and then you have the character stuff to boot. You have to wonder if he can even stay on the field. He had problems at Florida and then the rumors of a failed drug test at the combine. Seems like it's Charles Rogers/Justin Blackmon/Josh Gordon all over again, but with a lot less talent.
Click to expand...
Totally agree.  Looking around on Callaway, you see some anonymous ''If he was clean, he'd be the top WR in this class''.

I think that's nonsense.  No draftnik picked apart his game, because he wasn't considered a Day 1 or 2 guy this spring.  

Having said that, if he's being drafted after St. Brown, Coutee, and Chark, I think I like him.  I might like him as much as Pettis.  

Gordon is a FA after this year, and their big money spent on WR is a slow slot guy.  There's a path to relevance there, especially if you think CLE going in right direction.  

 
Would rather have Lasley in the 3rd than Calloway in the 2nd. If you want a guy underrated by character concerns. Similar talent level, same upside, easier path this year, cheaper.

 
thriftyrocker said:
Would rather have Lasley in the 3rd than Calloway in the 2nd. If you want a guy underrated by character concerns. Similar talent level, same upside, easier path this year, cheaper.
Click to expand...


Except for the horrendous drop rate.  That will get a QB not throwing in a WR’s direction as much as anything, if the QB doesn’t trust that he’ll catch the football.  It doesn’t matter how open the guy can get.  Ask Limas Sweed how a similar problem worked out for him.

 
Bronco Billy said:
Except for the horrendous drop rate.  That will get a QB not throwing in a WR’s direction as much as anything, if the QB doesn’t trust that he’ll catch the football.  It doesn’t matter how open the guy can get.  Ask Limas Sweed how a similar problem worked out for him.
Click to expand...
Yeah, he is definitely a body catcher. But is still a good bet based on the depth chart in Baltimore. 

 
thriftyrocker said:
Yeah, he is definitely a body catcher. But is still a good bet based on the depth chart in Baltimore. 
Click to expand...


He’s not just a body catcher.  He’s also a dropper.  He’s worth a risk late given his athleticism for sure, but he has a very real risk of dropping his way or misbehaving his way (or both) right out of the league.  Callaway is a much better receiver with pretty much the same discipline issues.

 
Bronco Billy said:
He’s not just a body catcher.  He’s also a dropper.  He’s worth a risk late given his athleticism for sure, but he has a very real risk of dropping his way or misbehaving his way (or both) right out of the league.  Callaway is a much better receiver with pretty much the same discipline issues.
Click to expand...
Even with the hands issue, I don't necessarily agree Callaway is better. I think Lasley is a gamer. His 2017 stats are great, and he played well vs. good teams. He delivered with both Rosen and the backup. Consider his dominator ranking was 41.4% where Calloway's was below average. Calloway has positives, he is a plus athlete as opposed to just good and the team clearly took a chance on him, but he's also shorter, in a more crowded situation, and wasn't as good in college. I know some of those are JMO though.

 
thriftyrocker said:
Even with the hands issue, I don't necessarily agree Callaway is better. I think Lasley is a gamer. His 2017 stats are great, and he played well vs. good teams. He delivered with both Rosen and the backup. Consider his dominator ranking was 41.4% where Calloway's was below average. Calloway has positives, he is a plus athlete as opposed to just good and the team clearly took a chance on him, but he's also shorter, in a more crowded situation, and wasn't as good in college. I know some of those are JMO though.
Click to expand...
I wouldn’t say Callaway wasn’t as good in college, given the circumstances. Awful QB play and offensive performance in general, pro-style offense, facing the best defenses in the nation... That’s going to impact the dom rnk of a deep threat. 

 
Concept Coop said:
I wouldn’t say Callaway wasn’t as good in college, given the circumstances. Awful QB play and offensive performance in general, pro-style offense, facing the best defenses in the nation... That’s going to impact the dom rnk of a deep threat. 
Click to expand...
IMO bad QB shouldn't affect dominator %. If you're saying his main role in college was a deep threat, like he is Phillip Dorsett, that would be a huge negative for me as far as NFL upside, but I don't think you're saying that (and certainly his low YPR in college doesn't indicate this). J'Mon Moore has a higher dominator rating, just to pick a similar pedigree WR in the same conference. He has a lower dominator % than DJ Chark who people are ignoring his draft spot because he is so one dimensional (as well as Keke Coutee). I don't want to downplay your comments on the Florida offense, but I don't think it answers much why his dominator rating is so low - I would stand by my original comment Lasley's a better value pick.

 
thriftyrocker said:
IMO bad QB shouldn't affect dominator %. If you're saying his main role in college was a deep threat, like he is Phillip Dorsett, that would be a huge negative for me as far as NFL upside, but I don't think you're saying that (and certainly his low YPR in college doesn't indicate this). J'Mon Moore has a higher dominator rating, just to pick a similar pedigree WR in the same conference. He has a lower dominator % than DJ Chark who people are ignoring his draft spot because he is so one dimensional (as well as Keke Coutee). I don't want to downplay your comments on the Florida offense, but I don't think it answers much why his dominator rating is so low - I would stand by my original comment Lasley's a better value pick.
Click to expand...
Bad QBs dictate what kind of offense you can run. Callaway missed a game and still caught nearly 40 balls more than the WR2. The offense was dink and dunk to RBs and TEs. They needed the threat of Callaway deep to move the ball doing that, even.

I have no issue with your call on him relative to Lasley; but dom% doesn’t tell Callaway’s story.

 
https://twitter.com/evansilva/status/999265484175495168

Evan Silva‏Verified account @evansilva

FollowFollow @evansilva

#Bears have 2nd-round pick Anthony Miller "earmarked" to play slot receiver. Allen Robinson will play X and Taylor Gabriel will be the deep-threat Z receiver:

5:27 AM - 23 May 2018

------------------------------------------------------

Can rookie Anthony Miller be next Alshon Jeffery for Bears?

...Miller is earmarked to be a slot receiver in head coach Matt Nagy’s offense and therefore is expected to contribute immediately.

... the Bears traded back into the second round for Miller 

...Nagy put it, that Miller has “the desire to be great.”

Miller began his collegiate career as a walk-on before eventually becoming Memphis’ all-time leader in receptions, yards and receiving touchdowns.

Miller calls his attitude "the Memphis grind," a mentality he's determined to bring with him to Chicago.

...Nagy: “He’s self-motivated. He’s a self-starter. 
Click to expand...

 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Bojang0301
Bojang's Pre-draft Tiers
2
Replies
56
Views
3K
Bojang0301
Bojang0301
Bojang0301
Bojang's Post Draft Tiers
Replies
24
Views
3K
steelers1080
steelers1080
socrates
Crazy Early Dynasty Rookie PPR Draft Board (2023 Updated Rankings Page 5)
3 4 5
Replies
213
Views
24K
socrates
socrates

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 1 (members: 0, guests: 1)
Back
Top