Englishteacher
Footballguy
The 20%, 16%, 12.8%.................. etc. comes from the Pareto Principle.Englishteacher thanks for the explanation.
Seems simple enough. Use PFF end of year grades that are compiled from from their weekly grades. Then apply the deprecation by age as a percentage, starting with age 23 at 100% and diminishing from that point forward. For ages 20 to 23 there is no depreciation. This suggests that the players value begins to decline at 24 years old simply because they have one less year remaining in their entire career moreso than a decline because of age. The discount should become more dramatic than just one less year at age 29 for a RB.
What I am not clear on is how you did this calculation. Because in your Bell example you are talking about multiplying by 16% (or .16).
In the original post you say:
So I am not sure where this 20% number I see you using as a possible baseline or something?
In any case wouldn't Bells value for 2016 be 98.8% of his age 23 value? So wouldn't this be 92.872 when you multiply the percentage with the PFF grade? Why are you multiplying by 16%?
If you take the rule, or Principle, 80% of our good, or production, comes from 20% of our effort. I applied this to the ranking system, giving weight to the younger years of a player's career and the most immediate time for production, the 2016 season.
If the first year of a player's career is his rookie year in 2016, it receives the highest weight because it is the least depreciated (in overall dynasty worth) and it is the first fantasy season we play (2016, or, when we want to win, now).
Further, on the 20%, the second year of a rookie player's career would be 2017 if we started now. Assuming depreciation and that it's two years from now, it is devalued slightly. I approximated, according to the Pareto Principle, or 80/20 rule, that if the first year of a player's career had a weight of 20%, I'd multiply by 80% of 20% to come up with a value for the second year, or 2017.
The Math = 20% X 80% = 16 %.
This is where Leveon Bell's 16% came from. Even though he's had a couple year's in the league, if you look at his age, he's still very young and fit into my age demographic for the coming 2016 season as being multiplied by 16%, or his second year in the league.
(A tricky part of this system was the age factor, not all player's come into the league at the same age. Todd Gurley benefited greatly from this because he cameinto the league so young in my rankings. Despite receiving a grade of about 78% by PFF for 2015, he accumulated some extra points because he was the youngest player in my sample so far.)