Ranking The Top 40 Free Agent Moves (1 Viewer)

[Joe Bryant]

Sigmund Bloom ranks the biggest winners of free agency from 40-1 with updated ceiling/floor projections.

https://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=2021-ranking-the-40-biggest-winners-of-free-agency

Who do you think should be higher or lower and most importantly, why?

 

[Blackbear]

Gerald Everett - TE Seattle - would think he benefits not splitting time and targets with Higbee of his former team the Rams.

Thought he should at least make the list. I didn’t see him. 

 

[Joe Bryant]

Gerald Everett - TE Seattle - would think he benefits not splitting time and targets with Higbee of his former team the Rams.

Thought he should at least make the list. I didn’t see him. 

For another angle, our Jason Wood talked about Everett here https://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=2021-free-agency-round-table-best-fits

 

[Joe Bryant]

Gerald Everett - TE Seattle - would think he benefits not splitting time and targets with Higbee of his former team the Rams.

Thought he should at least make the list. I didn’t see him. 

Thanks. If you wrote a blurb for Everett being a top 40 move, where would you rank him and what would you say? 

 

[Blackbear]

Another guy that probably benefits is Gabriel Davis - WR Buffalo. John Brown left so this probably leads to a lot more snaps and targets. Though this might be debatable since they signed Emanuel Sanders. 

 

[Atomic Punk]

Great article albeit slightly slanted toward the impact Fitzmagic will have on WFT. I agree he will be a huge improvement to the team but not quite as optimistic that his presence will make every player drastically increase in value to that degree.

I was also going to mention Everett and would put him somewhere in the low 20’s. The Seahawks haven’t always been a dream situation for TEs but I suspect they will have him on the field more often than not and he could up career high numbers.

 

[Blackbear]

Thanks. If you wrote a blurb for Everett being a top 40 move, where would you rank him and what would you say? 

What Wood wrote makes sense. Add that Everett will be atop the depth chart so the ceiling can be higher in Seattle. I’d ranke him around 30 where you have some other TE ranked, I guess.

 

[Boston]

Great article albeit slightly slanted toward the impact Fitzmagic will have on WFT. I agree he will be a huge improvement to the team but not quite as optimistic that his presence will make every player drastically increase in value to that degree.

I was also going to mention Everett and would put him somewhere in the low 20’s. The Seahawks haven’t always been a dream situation for TEs but I suspect they will have him on the field more often than not and he could up career high numbers.

Agree about Fitz...good bridge QB while WFT figures out that position but I feel he is becoming over-rated because everyone likes him...will be interesting to see how his gunslinger style meshes with a defense first team.

 

[JohnnyU]

Chris Ballard sure doesn't like free agents.  The Colts had a lot of FA cash and always choose to either stand pat, or occasionally sign one or two lower tiered players and focus more on signing their own players.  I think he does sometimes to a fault and I think he's one of the top 3 GMs in the league.

 

[Apple Juice]

I feel like many people are checked out on Jameis Winston or assume Hill will nullify his value. I think having a year to get his head straight, learn the NO system and come into camp as the favorite will help him greatly. 

If - and it's a big if - he doesn't turn the ball over constantly or at inopportune moments, he has top ten upside in that offense and he's only 27 years old. I'd easily put him above the likes of Newton, Hurts, and Fitzpatrick. 

 

[Snorkelson]

Thanks. If you wrote a blurb for Everett being a top 40 move, where would you rank him and what would you say? 

With many of the same players returning and an upgraded offensive line, along with no one sharing time with him, the only thing holding him back would be scheme. While a lot has been made of the offensive philosophy the second half of last year, I think it’s reasonable to think that the Seahawks find a balance between “cooking” and an effective run game. There’s everything you want for a te- a good qb, a legit guy who takes the top off of defenses, and another short-intermediate threat for defenses to focus on. He may not get enough targets to be a consistent threat, but he will be in the mix enough and secure enough red zone targets to finish in the top 12 this year. (Free agent rank 35ish)

 

[ZWK]

I would:

Add
Brandin Cooks, Jordan Akins - lack of competition for targets in HOU
Gerald Everett - could have a bigger role in SEA
Benny Snell - last year's starter when Conner was out, IMO better than Ballage

Remove
Jonnu Smith - playing alongside Henry is bad for him, worse landing spot than expected
Logan Thomas - benefited a lot last year from WAS having only 1 good WR, bad for him that they added Samuel & Humphries

Move higher
Mike Davis, Myles Gaskin, Chase Edmonds - these guys are all very situation-dependent RBs, borderline starters who (for now) are in line for lots of touches. I'd have them in the top 5 (if we're thinking typical PPR league)

Move lower:
TY Hilton - IND not that great a landing spot relative to alternatives
Mo Alie-Cox - offseason has basically gone as expected for him

 

[Blackbear]

A point this podfather on YouTube made is that since Brown joining raiders and Agholor leaving the Raiders, Bryan Edwards is going to benefit. Evidently the thought is Brown might eat into Ruggs targets and not Edwards. As such he is saying good time to buy on Edwards. I have only one share of Edwards and will likely hold and not sell. I would like to see if he steps it up this year. Agholor had a peak year and kept Edwards off the field I guess. https://youtu.be/eZd913VAHoA

 

[Tau837]

Move lower:
TY Hilton - IND not that great a landing spot relative to alternatives
Mo Alie-Cox - offseason has basically gone as expected for him

Agree, especially on MAC. @Sigmund Bloom wrote as part of his writeup that "he is the best receiving tight end in an offense that features the position with a new quarterback who loves to target the position" ... but the Colts had a QB (Rivers) who loved to target the TE position last season, and they have retained at least their top 4 WRs and their other top TE (Doyle), along with their top 4 RBs. They did have Burton last season, and he is currently unsigned... he had 28/250/3 last season. Meanwhile, the team seems set to get weaker at LT this season, which could require the TEs to block more, and MAC is a great blocker. Doesn't seem to warrant ranking MAC #9. He strikes me as the kind of player who is a much better NFL player than fantasy player.

 

[Tau837]

Thanks. If you wrote a blurb for Everett being a top 40 move, where would you rank him and what would you say? 

With many of the same players returning and an upgraded offensive line, along with no one sharing time with him, the only thing holding him back would be scheme. While a lot has been made of the offensive philosophy the second half of last year, I think it’s reasonable to think that the Seahawks find a balance between “cooking” and an effective run game. There’s everything you want for a te- a good qb, a legit guy who takes the top off of defenses, and another short-intermediate threat for defenses to focus on. He may not get enough targets to be a consistent threat, but he will be in the mix enough and secure enough red zone targets to finish in the top 12 this year. (Free agent rank 35ish)

I like Everett, but I have to disagree on top 12. The stars would really need to align.

Last season, Wilson attempted 558 passes, a regular season career high. It doesn't seem likely that pass attempts will go up; it seems more likely they could go down.

The team had 4 TEs who were targeted:

• Olsen - 24/239/1 on 37 targets in 11 games
  
• Dissly - 24/251/2 on 29 targets in 16 games
  
• Hollister - 25/209/3 on 40 targets in 16 games
  
• Parkinson - 2/16/0 on 2 targets in 6 games
  

Olsen and Hollister are gone, the other two remain. So 49/448/4 TE production on 77 targets was vacated. In PPR, that production would have ranked around TE20 last season.

Dissly has 8 TDs and has averaged 12.2 ypr  and 9.6 yards per target on 70 career targets. For reference, 9.6 YPT is the same as Metcalf's career number and above Lockett's (9.4). So I doubt Dissly will lose targets, especially since he had fewer than 2 targets per game. It seems more likely Dissly could gain targets.

Seattle did lose its #3 WR, David Moore, who last season had 35/417/6 on 47 targets. Everett would have to get a lot of those targets and/or benefit from injuries to other skill players to have a shot at a top 12 finish.

The most positive sign is that the team has a new OC, and he came from the Rams and was signed before the team signed Everett, and presumably had input. But he was the Rams passing game coordinator 2018-2020... during that span, Everett 111/1145/6 on 172 targets in 45 games, which scales to 39/407/2 over 16 games. McVay called the plays for the Rams, not Waldron, so who knows, maybe Waldron will use Everett in a way he was not used in LA.

 

[FBG Moderator]

@Blackbear did you mean to post the laughing emoji on ZWK post? If so, don't do that. 

Instead describe exactly what you disagree with and have a real discussion. Thanks. 
 

 

[Snorkelson]

I like Everett, but I have to disagree on top 12. The stars would really need to align.

Last season, Wilson attempted 558 passes, a regular season career high. It doesn't seem likely that pass attempts will go up; it seems more likely they could go down.

The team had 4 TEs who were targeted:

• Olsen - 24/239/1 on 37 targets in 11 games
  
• Dissly - 24/251/2 on 29 targets in 16 games
  
• Hollister - 25/209/3 on 40 targets in 16 games
  
• Parkinson - 2/16/0 on 2 targets in 6 games
  

Olsen and Hollister are gone, the other two remain. So 49/448/4 TE production on 77 targets was vacated. In PPR, that production would have ranked around TE20 last season.

Dissly has 8 TDs and has averaged 12.2 ypr  and 9.6 yards per target on 70 career targets. For reference, 9.6 YPT is the same as Metcalf's career number and above Lockett's (9.4). So I doubt Dissly will lose targets, especially since he had fewer than 2 targets per game. It seems more likely Dissly could gain targets.

Seattle did lose its #3 WR, David Moore, who last season had 35/417/6 on 47 targets. Everett would have to get a lot of those targets and/or benefit from injuries to other skill players to have a shot at a top 12 finish.

The most positive sign is that the team has a new OC, and he came from the Rams and was signed before the team signed Everett, and presumably had input. But he was the Rams passing game coordinator 2018-2020... during that span, Everett 111/1145/6 on 172 targets in 45 games, which scales to 39/407/2 over 16 games. McVay called the plays for the Rams, not Waldron, so who knows, maybe Waldron will use Everett in a way he was not used in LA.

That’s a fair analysis. I think Everett is a better receiving option over Dissly. His $6 million, 1 year contract tells he isn’t a depth signing. As you point out, there are 124 targets up for grabs in that offense, although perhaps not quite that many due to a decrease in passing volume for the offense. I think the targets are there for him, but like pretty much any TE outside of a few, his overall fantasy production will come down to how many TDs he catches. Looking at Evan Engrams 109 targets, 1 td season shows that targets aren’t the best indicator at the position.
The Seahawks have been looking for TE production the last few years, bringing in Graham and Olsen. It didn’t pan out. They take another swing here with a younger prospect that has the physical tools, has shown flashes in a timeshare, and has shown improvement in the deficient areas of his game. 
He could have something like jonnu smith numbers to sneak into the top 12. They have an efficient offense that should provide those red zone opportunities.

 

[-OZ-]

I would:

Add
Brandin Cooks, Jordan Akins - lack of competition for targets in HOU
 

Mostly agree with the rest, but I wouldn't upgrade any Texans right now. 

 

[BoltBacker]

Remove
Jonnu Smith - playing alongside Henry is bad for him, worse landing spot than expected

Yeah, there seems to be a hard take that Smith>>Henry and I don't understand that at all. Supposedly it's backed up with, "Smith was the higher priority target, he’s the better receiver, and he’ll get more targets than he ever got in Tennessee."

Smith 4yr/$50mil/$31 guaranteed

Henry 3yr/$37.5mil/$25mil guaranteed

Maybe I'm missing something but it seems to me they signed similar contracts except Henry will be back at the negotiating table sooner presumably in a non-salary-cap depressed year at the ripe old age of 29yo. Slightly less security but I'd take the Henry contract in a heartbeat.

In any case I'm just making the point that the contracts are awfully close and if I'm in a fantasy league I'll be leaning toward Henry with 5.2 targets/3.6 receptions/42.3yards per game over the course of his career. Especially if people are this convinced that Smith with 2.9 targets/2.0 receptions/22.4 yards per game will be the "#1 TE" in NE and I get a discount for Henry. 

 

[Blackbear]

@Blackbear did you mean to post the laughing emoji on ZWK post? If so, don't do that. 

Instead describe exactly what you disagree with and have a real discussion. Thanks. 
 

Yeah it was supposed to be a smile not laughing at. 

 

[BoltBacker]

Yeah it was supposed to be a smile not laughing at. 

I read it as a smirk.

Warned.

 

[Boston]

Yeah, there seems to be a hard take that Smith>>Henry and I don't understand that at all. Supposedly it's backed up with, "Smith was the higher priority target, he’s the better receiver, and he’ll get more targets than he ever got in Tennessee."

Smith 4yr/$50mil/$31 guaranteed

Henry 3yr/$37.5mil/$25mil guaranteed

Maybe I'm missing something but it seems to me they signed similar contracts except Henry will be back at the negotiating table sooner presumably in a non-salary-cap depressed year at the ripe old age of 29yo. Slightly less security but I'd take the Henry contract in a heartbeat.

In any case I'm just making the point that the contracts are awfully close and if I'm in a fantasy league I'll be leaning toward Henry with 5.2 targets/3.6 receptions/42.3yards per game over the course of his career. Especially if people are this convinced that Smith with 2.9 targets/2.0 receptions/22.4 yards per game will be the "#1 TE" in NE and I get a discount for Henry. 

My take is people think Jonnu is more untapped potential (i.e. has a higher upside) but since he played in the Tennessee system he has been held down...while I understand that take if Cam is the QB it won't matter for either of them.

 

[BoltBacker]

My take is people think Jonnu is more untapped potential (i.e. has a higher upside) but since he played in the Tennessee system he has been held down...while I understand that take if Cam is the QB it won't matter for either of them.

That's a fair point although Olsen made a few pro-bowls with Cam. Olsen didn't have as much competition for reps though.

 

[Boston]

That's a fair point although Olsen made a few pro-bowls with Cam. Olsen didn't have as much competition for reps though.

More than that is the fact that Olsen's Cam and Henry/Smith's Cam are two totally different QBs.