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Rashard Mendenhall (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter theredoz
- Start date
Mortimer Ichabod
Footballguy
Willie Parker should still be the featured RB at least for next year. If mendenhall gets the goal line, I could see a scenario where for 2008 he gets 350 yds and 8 TDs (With another 1200-6 for FWP).For 2009/2010 it really depends on the development of the offensive line. Big Ben was running for his life a lot last year and they haven't really addressed that issue yet. I see Mendenhall having a Rudi Johnson type career. He won't really wow you, but he will get you solid production from the RB position. Mendenhall's performance will be dictated by the team he has around him.
Chachi
Footballguy
You must own him in your dynasty league.
A
awesomeness
Guest
All aboard the Mendenhall bandwagon
Craig_MiamiFL
Footballguy
Pretty good estimates. The yardage may not be stellar, but I would not be surprised if he cracked double digit TD this year.I view him as a Joseph Addai that may have to wait a little longer to see the load. I view him as the #1 rookie dynasty RB. I think by mid/late 2009, you'll see Parker in a COP role.
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A
awesomeness
Guest
Mendenhall has the ability to WOW, his running style isn't like Rudi's at all. Mendenhall reminds me a bit of Portis, good speed, can break tackles well, stocky frame. Johnathon Stewart, on the other hand, runs a lot similar to Rudi's style than Mendenhall.
LarryAllen'sJockstrap
Footballguy
This is a really tough situation to try and predict. I know people will make the comparison of ADP and Taylor, or Alexander and Ricky Watters, but Mendenhall has a really good RB in front of him who is still in his prime.
Parker:
- 27 (11/11/1980)
- 3 straight 1,200 yard seasons.
- Career avg. of 4.4 YPC.
- 1 missed game in his career.
A lot of what I read on Mendenhall compares his game to that of Travis Henry; and that is not a bad thing. Powerful, fast, a good inside runner, but not an overly elusive or explosive runner.
I think Mendenhall and Parker and perfect compliments, and with the way the NFL is heading these days (2-back systems), I think you could end up seeing a 50/50 split for the foreseeable future.
Now, if Mendenhall turns out to be a world-beater ala Peterson, sure he'll get the majority of the work, but chances are he ends up more like a Travis Henry or Marion Barber, than a Peterson or LT.
Parker:
- 27 (11/11/1980)
- 3 straight 1,200 yard seasons.
- Career avg. of 4.4 YPC.
- 1 missed game in his career.
A lot of what I read on Mendenhall compares his game to that of Travis Henry; and that is not a bad thing. Powerful, fast, a good inside runner, but not an overly elusive or explosive runner.
I think Mendenhall and Parker and perfect compliments, and with the way the NFL is heading these days (2-back systems), I think you could end up seeing a 50/50 split for the foreseeable future.
Now, if Mendenhall turns out to be a world-beater ala Peterson, sure he'll get the majority of the work, but chances are he ends up more like a Travis Henry or Marion Barber, than a Peterson or LT.
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LarryAllen'sJockstrap
Footballguy
Mendenhall is not the burner you think he is. I also don't think he's Rudi Johnson, but he's nowhere near as agile or elusive as Portis.As for the Stewart comment, I also don't think Rudi is a good comparison. Stewart has elite speed to go with his size. Think Jamal Lewis.
Franknbeans
Footballguy
2008- 500 yards, 6 Td's
heh...not yet, but I shall work on itThis is how I look at it1) His YPC have noticeably dropped each year he has been the RB. 2) The Steelers brought in Dookie Davenport, a throwaway from GB when Simkon Gadko was "their guy". He is as fast as a 245-lber and runs like a 205-lber, yet he still had 2x as many TDs as FWP3) He couldn't block to save his life, and he's not particularly adept at catching out of the backfield4) They brought in Mewelde Moore for 3rd down duties in the offseasonNow, contrast that with Mendenhall's situation1) He is a solid blocking RB and solid at pass catching. In fact, the Steelers' coaching staff was excited about him and described him as the most "NFL-ready RB" in the draft due to his abilities with catching and blocking. That sounds like a 3rd down back to me2) 5'10, 220ish lbs. Low pad level. Who wants to bet that Mendenhall takes the goal line carries from Dookie who "won" that job from FWP based more on FWP's weakness between the tackles versus Dookie's abilities?3) #1 draft choice (vs. FWP being undrafted). Mendy is a consensus top-3 RB from this draft. There's no reason to bring in a RB in the first round if you don't plan on using him.I see the shift occuring as someone mentioned, a la MBIII. FWP will get the bulk of the carries between the 20s on 1st and 2nd down, Mendy comes in on 3rd down, and gets everything in the red zone. He also gets the bulk of the carries in the 4th quarter to help preserve the lead.Next season, FWP becomes the change of pace back and ends up with maybe 80-100 carries with Mendy getting 200+ carries plus pass catching duties.Remember, Willie is a small dude and has been used as a workhorse for 2 years now. He's also going to turn 28 during this season, so he's not quite as young as people seem to think. He's a full year older than Portis who many people think is old.Chachi said:
A
awesomeness
Guest
I never said Mendenhall is a burner, but that he has good speed a la Portis. I do think that Mendenhall has a lot more agility than you do, so we disagree there.I dont understand how you can say Mendenhall isn't a burner, but JStew has elite speed when Mendenhall is faster than JStew, albeit only slightly. I dont think Rudi is as good as JStew, as Stewart is both faster and more agile. What worries me about JStew is his burst. Instead of coming out of the backfield flying, at times he seems to run slow until he gets in the open field.LarryAllen said:
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Alluro
Footballguy
Stewart played most of last season with a toe that required surgery. In fact, he ran the combine with that toe and then had the surgery immediately afterward. I would venture to say that if healthy, he's probably faster than mendenhall. Check out this youtube clip of a healthy stewart:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PLS6C0HKrMc...feature=related
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Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
I agree that Mendenhall has more agility than Larry Allen's jockstrap.
jaybebo
Footballguy
I passed on Mendenhall in one league and took Forte, but it was more of a pick based on prior investment. I would have taken Mendenhall instead if the need did not exist. As stated, Willie Parker is not going to just lie down due to a rookie showing up in Pittsburgh. I can see this being the way it was with Bettis...goal line carries...games like 1 yard rushing and three touchdowns. Will Parker be kept past his final year in Pittsburgh? That is not likely with him being 30, but he may leave before then...just never know in the NFL.
skillz
Footballguy
What is Parker's contract like? Is it a cap friendly deal if he gets cut either at the end of the 2008 season, or 2009 season? As with his age, I think his contract status plays a huge role in helping predict how long he may be in Pitt.
Godsbrother
Footballguy
1) The line was very erratic last season. FWP was getting hit a lot behind the LOS. He was leading the NFL in rushing last season before he got hurt and was running hard.2) Davenport was brought in to perform a role similar to the Bus/Verron Haynes. Parker's drop in TDs was as much a result of Ben throwing a lot more TDs in the redzone than the year before. Only 9 of the Steelers 43 offensive TDs were runs last season compared to 16/39 in 2006.3) Not sure where you got this from. Parker is not a bad blocker and he has good hands -- his biggest problem as a receiver is that Ben doesn't throw a whole lot of screens. Also last season the pass protection was not very good so all Steeler RBs (and TEs) were kept in to block.4) Mewelde Moore was brought in more for his play of special teams than as a 3rd down back. He may ultimately be the 3rd down back but I think it is unlikely with Mendenhall and Davenport there.
I agree that Mendenhall is likely to be the 3rd down back but didn't you just say Moore was brought in for that?
I already covered why Parker's TD numbers went down. Parker had 13 rushing TDs in 2007 and has proven he can be effective as a goal line back given a decent o-line.
Mendenhall is going to get some goalline opportunities but it is going to come down to effectiveness. Where he was drafted won't mean a thing once the season starts.
Maybe. Way too early to know how this plays out.
Willie is heavier than Portis and built like a horse. He was rarely used in college and should have lots of carries left, especially with Mendenhall to carry some of the load. The Steelers want a 2-back system. They aren't trying to phase Parker out at all.
treat88
Footballguy
Disclosure notice: Parker ownerI agree 100%I see the situation currently as more of a Fred Taylor/MJD situation in MJD's rookie year. Mendenhall is going to have to perform to earn his carries. Early in the season he'll likely be a straight CoP back. If he performs well his role will expand. If he performs like Drew he will likely put up similar numbers.Everything about Godsbrother's post is spot on.
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EBF
Footballguy
Willie Parker is 5'10" 207 per NFL.com. They list Portis as 5'11" 223. IMO, Parker has always been an overrated talent whose success has primarily been due to his supporting cast. If Mendenhall is as good as billed then I think he will eventually get the lion's share of the carries and push Parker to a 3rd down/change of pace type role. I don't expect that to happen until 2009 though. This season I would expect a Parker to get somewhere between 40-70% of the carries. I see a lot of parallels between the Joseph Addai/Dominic Rhodes situation in Indy except Parker is somewhat better than Rhodes.
EBF
Footballguy
That's an opinion, not necessarily a fact. The reality is that we don't know what Pittsburgh thinks of Parker. Maybe they view him as a franchise back. Maybe they've been looking to replace him for a while. There was strong talk that they would've drafted LenDale White at 32 in 2006 if Santonio Holmes hadn't slipped into their range, so there's been some rumblings in the past indicating possible discontent with FWP as their starter. I know Tomlin will come out praising Parker and saying what a great back he is, but if he really believe that then would the team have used its first round pick on a RB? Here are the last handful of RB's to be drafted in the first round behind a solid veteran starter:
Adrian Peterson -- Chester Taylor
Reggie Bush -- Deuce McAllister
Laurence Maroney -- Corey Dillon
DeAngelo Williams -- Deshaun Foster
Steven Jackson -- Marshall Faulk
Chris Perry -- Rudi Johnson
Willis McGahee -- Travis Henry
Larry Johnson -- Priest Holmes
Deuce McAllister -- Ricky Williams
About the only guys on this list who didn't experience an immediate downswing in production and/or team change are Rudi Johnson and Priest Holmes. You could argue that the only reason Perry didn't cut into Rudi's numbers is because he couldn't stay healthy.
I'm of the opinion that if a team is truly satisfied with its RB situation, it won't go out and use a first round pick on a franchise back. So while the Pittsburgh coaches will bombard the media with coach speak about how great it is to have "two great backs," in the end its their actions that will tell the story. The action of drafting Mendenhall makes an ugly first chapter for FWP owners.
FUBAR
Footballguy
IMO, this is where Mendenhall ends up losing more time. If it was simply about running, I think Mendenhall could be better than Parker even early this year. But with the need for the RB to block, Tomlin won't let his star QB get hurt while a rookie RB misses a blocking assignment. Long term, I think Mendenhall could easily be the best back in this class, 2nd only to Peterson out of the last few years, but not this year - unless he's more adept at picking up assignments than I think he'll be (or most rookie RBs for that matter).
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
I disagree with this to a certain extent. NFL teams aren't concerned with stats, but rather with wins. Particularly in the last quarter of the season and into the playoffs.The simple fact is that players are bigger and faster than ever before and that means that the running back position, more than any other, shoulders a heavier portion of the physical side of the game. How many times have we seen a back start out the season great guns, but tail off toward the end? Teams see this too and thus the advent of the two back system favored by more and more teams.
It doesn't necessarily point to the (dis)satisfaction they have with thier primary ball carrier, but rather to the desire to be productive in the latter part of the year, and further for their careers. The inclusion of another quality back increases the effectiveness and longevity of both.
Kit Fisto
Footballguy
You can't think Jonathan Stewart is going to be the primary ballcarrier in Carolina and NOT think Mendenhall was drafted to do the same in Pittsburgh.
I've also thought that FWP is waaay overrated. While he's a good fantasy back, he's not a franchise NFL back. And I think Pittsburgh has realized that.
I've also thought that FWP is waaay overrated. While he's a good fantasy back, he's not a franchise NFL back. And I think Pittsburgh has realized that.
Help me out here. Which one of these situations was a young(ish) guy coming off 1200+ seasons 3 years running? And which are the situations where a very highly rated RB dropped much lower than they should have?The reality here is that every situation is different. There's no analog to FWP/Pit/Mendy scenario. The closest of the above is Chris Perry and Rudi, imo. Deuce/R. Bush...sorta. And really, Deuce had a pretty decent first year, and then blew his knee out last season. So, not really much of an example. We'll have to wait and see how things go, but I guess I'm much more prone to believe that this is a situation of Tomlin/Pit recognizing that FWP can NOT lead the league in carries and only have Dookie to fall on.
Kit Fisto
Footballguy
I gotta disagree with you on this one. We say the same thing every year, yet every year rookie RBs take the league by storm."But with the need for the RB to block, Childress won't let his QB get hurt while a rookie RB misses a blocking assignment."
"But with the need for the RB to block, Jauron won't let his QB get hurt while a rookie RB misses a blocking assignment."
"But with the need for the RB to block, Dungy won't let his star QB get hurt while a rookie RB misses a blocking assignment."
Just sayin'...
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Not sure about the other two, but that statement is true. AP was rarely on the field on third downs. Scary, isn't it?
EBF
Footballguy
You make some good points about the value of a good second back, but you can grab a competent RB in the middle rounds if you're satisfied with your starter. That's what teams like Philadelphia, San Diego, St. Louis, and Seattle have done. Cases of a team that's 100% satisfied with its starter drafting a backup in the first round are quite rare. I think Pittsburgh saw a chance to upgrade a starting position and they jumped at that chance. If Mendenhall develops into the player they expect him to be then I wouldn't be surprised to see FWP on a different team by 2010.
EBF
Footballguy
I think the best comparison is Travis Henry/Willis McGahee. Henry was a youngish RB coming off a big season, but his actual value was probably less than his stats indicated. The team saw a chance to add what they thought was a superior talent and within a year Henry had been pushed aside. Chester Taylor/Adrian Peterson is also a pretty good comparison. Taylor was another mediocre starter whose stats had inflated his perceived value in the FF community. The more talented youngster quickly pushed him aside. Mendenhall isn't as talented as Peterson, but I do think he's probably a substantial upgrade over FWP as a featured back.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
And all of those franchises have had a back break down at the end of the year and/or earlier in their career than necessary - Westbrook, Tomlinson, Jackson, and Alexander have all had issues because of the load they've had to carry.I don't think it's any different than a case like where the Giants picked Justin Tuck even though they already had Strahan and Osi on the roster.
It works the same with the RB position. Sure they could draft a complimentary back in a later round, but the talent level is going to be (normally) obviously inferior to the starter. I'm sure opposing defenses scheme differently when Kolby Smith is in the backfield instead of Larry Johnson, for example.
Now I do think that Parker is more suited for the complimentary role and that Mendenhall should be the eventual starter. But I think the Steelers will be more than happy to have them share the backfield together for as long as they can.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
EBF
Footballguy
Look at all of the elite RB's in the league right now and ask yourself how many of their teams have drafted a first round RB:LaDainian Tomlinson - noClinton Portis - noBrian Westbrook - noWillis McGahee - noLarry Johnson - noJamal Lewis - noFred Taylor - noAhman Green - no Frank Gore - no Shaun Alexander - no Teams with elite starters don't draft a backup in the first round. If they want a change of pace or an insurance policy, they generally get it in the middle rounds (Michael Turner, Jacob Hester, Tony Hunt, Ryan Moats, Ray Rice, Jamaal Charles, MJD, Musa Smith, Maurice Morris). When there are exceptions to this rule, they're usually easy to understand. The Chiefs took LJ because Priest had the hip injury. The Saints took Bush because he was widely considered a rare prospect and the best overall player in the draft. But by and large, you just don't see teams with top shelf RB's go out and use their first round pick on a back. So I think you can infer that when a team drafts a franchise type RB in the first round, that team has concerns about its starter.
Tuck was only a third round pick.
Most of the successful RBBC type situations feature at least one RB who wasn't a first round pick:NYG - Jacobs (4th), Bradshaw (7th)MIN - Taylor (6th)DAL - Barber (4th)JAX - MJD (2nd)ATL - Norwood (3rd)It's not that hard to find a useful back in the 2nd-4th round range. If all the Steelers wanted was a complimentary back, they could've waited.
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Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
All right. I get what you're saying.
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
I was able to trade up from five to three in a rookie draft. I figure to land either Mendenhall or Stewart and I'll be happy to get either one. I honestly don't know which back will turn out the best but I think they both are great prospects. I feel that Stewart is going to go in and start from the get-go with DeAngelo used as the complimentary back but the opposite in Pittsburgh where Parker will be the feature back and Mendenhall wll come in. I think Rashard will get the goal line and short down role and since the Steelers didn't get any top ranked offensive linemen that they will use him in as a blocker as well.
http://www.theclevelandfan.com/article_detail.php?blgId=3200
http://www.theclevelandfan.com/article_detail.php?blgId=3200
But Tomlin makes it clear, Mendenhall will be backing up Parker.
I was sold on Mendenhall but then began seriously kicking the tires on Stewart. I was concerned about the turf toe but I saw this on a Panther blog:
Their surgeon did the surgery on Stewart so they had inside information on his status. He's still recovering and unable to particpate in OTAs but I like that their surgeon did the surgery and that they turned around and took an OT in the first round after taking Stewart. I think they have big plans for him. So I'm glad that I traded for the third pick because I'm torn between Mendenhall and Stewart. I think they both will be great backs but probably Stewart will cash in sooner because I think the Steelers will continue to start Parker. Haven't seen anything yet to sway me from thinking that but he should nudge his way into the feature role next year.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Fair point, but did any of those teams have an RB comparable to Parker, an elite QB (or at least one with elite potential), and a weaker OL?With Dungy, IIRC Addai didn't play the vast majority of the plays, he had little more than half the carries.
With Lynch, he was simply that much better than the others.
Yes, it's not horrible. Except, Taylor had put together ONE year, not 3 consecutive. Also, I'm strongly of the opinion that FWP is a much better back than Chester. Add to that the fack that ADP is a whole other level of talent than Mendenhall. Did ADP have to split carries or get smattering of looks up until his senior year...at Illinois, mind you. FWP might not have had all the tools/skill in college, but I think learning under the wing of the Bus really made him into a back of more substance/ability than 90% of the FBG seem to want to acknowledge. I guess put me in the camp that is a "prove it to me" on Mendy. I think the physical skills are there, but he's got some learning to do. Can he learn and be an anchor of an NFL team? I'd say best bet is to figure the Stillers won't turn to him (away from FWP) until late 2009.Henry is the one I was drawn to as well, BUT Henry had obvious off the field issues. Generally, I think they guy isn't playing with a full deck, and Buffalo probably knew that. /shrug, maybe I'm remembering that wrong. I would say that Henry at that time is about the same level as FWP./shrug. Time will tell. I'll be pretty shocked is FWP has as steep of a dropoff as all the doom-and-gloom folks around here expect.
Moore was brought in before the draft. They didn't expect Mendenhall to fall to them.
*blinks repeatedly* uh, Willie is about 205-210. Portis is between 220-225. 5'10 205 is not really "horselike" unless you're talking about a shetland pony.
I would agree
wait, so FWP is a better blocker? Dookie? Who is it that is going to be better than Mendy? Seriuos question here, not trying to be combative or argumentative.
well, as mentioned before, Tomlin was happy about Mendy not just beacuse of his running ability but because of his blocking ability and his skill at picking up assignments. He declared Mendy the most "NFL-ready" back in the draft because of this.
Franknbeans
Footballguy
Their main focus in bringing in Davenport and now drafting Mendenhall was to take some of the load off of Willie's shoulders. They want to extend his career and not wear down. It really is that simple. I would be very surprised if Mendenhall unseats Willie as the starting running back even in 2009.
silentmark
Footballguy
Godsbrother
Footballguy
I was going by Pro-Football Reference -- my apologies if it is incorrect
Willie Parker is no shetland pony. He is pretty solid:FWP
I honestly don't know who the better blocker is. I was just responding to your original statement that Parker wasn't a goos blocker. He is a good blocker and was kept back for extra pass protection quite a bit last season.
-OZ-
Footballguy
NFL.com lists him at Personally I think Mendenhall is the RB of 08 that busts! He had one reat season in college , the year before couldn't beat out P. Thomas. Factor in W. Parker in 06 was elite back and last year before a broken leg was leading the NFL in rushing ( granted only 2 TD's though ) . Just don't think Mendy will be anything like most people think.
Mortimer Ichabod
Footballguy
I found this amusing: Player comparisons on NFL.COMDarren McFadden
Compares To: MARSHALL FAULK
http://www.nfl.com/draft/profiles/darren-mcfadden?id=284
Jonathan Stewart
Compares To: LADAINIAN TOMLINSON
http://www.nfl.com/draft/profiles/jonathan-stewart?id=949
Rashard Mendenhall
Compares To: CEDRIC BENSON
http://www.nfl.com/draft/profiles/rashard-mendenhall?id=939
I find this particularly funny since it's on the official website of the NFL. I hope for Steeler fans everywhere that he turns out a little better than Ced, lol.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Willie Parker never started in college. I don't get why people think it's a negative that RM only had one productive year. These are still college kids we're talking about here. Who knows, maybe Mendenhall just needed to grow up a bit and now that he has, he's a terrific prospect. I'd rather roll the dice on a guy that had one productive season than none at all.
EBF
Footballguy
Agreed. And it's not like he came out of nowhere. He was a 4 star prospect on Rivals.com and a 5 star prospect on scout.com. There are legitimate reasons why Mendenhall might disappoint, but the fact that he only started for one season isn't one of them.
Alluro
Footballguy
When Cedric Benson was coming out of college he was an elite prospect. I'm not sure what happened to him once he got to the NFL but the talent was definitely there. I don't think being compared to Cedric Benson is necessarily a bad thing, although i admit it's a questionable choice for NFL.COM to make.
