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Rate my Team... juiced? (1 Viewer)

Dentist

***Official FBG Dentist***
I just ran the "rate my team" on all 12 teams in my league.

6/12 make the playoffs so the true odds are 50%

11/12 teams were rated at 54% or more WITH AVERAGE INSEASON management

only 1/12 team was rated under 50%

Can we assume they want to offend the least number of people possible?

 
Last edited by a moderator:

Dentist

***Official FBG Dentist***
If you draft by FBG's projections, then they will always say you should make playoffs.
so let's just say every single team used the draft dominator and never deviated from its recommendations except for in situations where it didn't fill your roster out appropriately.

would then every team with AVERAGE in-season management be over 50% to make teh playoffs?

 

Sarnoff

Footballguy
Totally juiced. Dodds wants you to feel good about the performance of Draft Dominator so you buy again.

 

dickey moe

Fingerpicker
Test:

QB: Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees

RB: Adrian Peterson, Doug Martin, Jamaal Charles, Ray Rice, LeSean McCoy, C.J. Spiller
WR: Calvin Johnson, A.J. Green, Dez Bryant, Brandon Marshall, Demaryius Thomas, Julio Jones
TE: Jimmy Graham, Jason Witten
PK: Stephen Gostkowski, Matt Prater
TD: Seattle Seahawks, San Francisco 49ers

Overview:

Congratulations! You seem to have grabbed quality players at every turn of this draft. It's rare indeed to be better than the average team at the three core positions (quarterback, running back and receiver), but we think this team is. Tight end, of course, is also a big plus for this team.

You must be among the favorites in this league and have positioned yourself to grab one of the playoff spots. But before you start engraving the trophy, realize that the draft is not the end of the story. Things can and do go wrong, so you need to remain diligent throughout the year to ensure you remain strong until the playoffs.

Players we particularly like on this team include Aaron Rodgers, Ray Rice, LeSean McCoy, Jason Witten, Jamaal Charles, Demaryius Thomas, and Matt Prater. We have all these guys ranked ahead of where they are typically being drafted.

Bottom line: This team is a virtual lock to go to the playoffs.
lock.gif

In any event, we wish you the best of luck. Here's hoping all your weeks are like week 16 of 2012:

Dez Bryant vs. NO: 224 receiving yards, 2 TD
Jamaal Charles vs. IND: 230 combined yards, 1 TD
Aaron Rodgers vs. TEN: 342 passing yards, 4 TD
Calvin Johnson vs. ATL: 225 receiving yards
Ray Rice vs. NYG: 158 combined yards, 1 TD
Drew Brees vs. DAL: 446 passing yards, 3 TD
C.J. Spiller vs. MIA: 173 combined yards
Demaryius Thomas vs. CLE: 102 receiving yards, 1 TD

QB Summary:

You don't need us to tell you this, but we'll tell you anyway: Aaron Rodgers should ensure that your production at the quarterback position is among the best in the league. We have him as the #1 QB according to your scoring rules, and we figure he gives you about a 1.7 point-per-game advantage over an average starting QB.

We also love Drew Brees as a backup. In fact, we think he's good enough to be someone's starting quarterback in this league. With Rodgers in place as your starter, he's something of a luxury for you. If he plays like we expect, you should be able to get good value for him in a trade after quarterback injuries hit some of your opponents.

Incidentally, Brees has what we project as a neutral matchup (MIA) during Rodgers's bye.

RB Summary:

Nice work here. We like both your starting running backs, as our projections indicate that they give you a combined 7.2 point-per-game advantage over an average opponent in this league. Our projections have Adrian Peterson ranked at #1 and Doug Martin ranked at #2.

Your bench also looks good. Tough to do better than Jamaal Charles at RB3; he's a likely flex starter. Ray Rice is also a very nice RB4. Tough to do better than LeSean McCoy at RB5.

C.J. Spiller is an excellent depth pick, though you may not end up using him much.

WR Summary:

Nice work here. We like all your starting receivers, as our projections indicate that they give you a combined 13.4 point-per-game advantage over an average opponent in this league. Calvin Johnson is our #1 ranked receiver, A.J. Green is #2, and we have Dez Bryant third.

Your bench also looks good. We love Brandon Marshall as a fourth receiver. Demaryius Thomas will also be among the best WR5s in the league. Tough to do better than Julio Jones at WR6.

TE Summary:

As you are well aware, Jimmy Graham is an elite tight end. We have him ranked first overall at the position. He's about 4.7 points per game better than an average starting TE in this league. We also think Jason Witten is a starting quality tight end in this league. He's a luxury.

Kicker Summary:

With Stephen Gostkowski and Matt Prater, you should be above average at the position.

Defense Summary:

Between the Seahawks and the 49ers, you should get above average production here.
 

ponchsox

Footballguy
Test:

QB: Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees

RB: Adrian Peterson, Doug Martin, Jamaal Charles, Ray Rice, LeSean McCoy, C.J. Spiller

WR: Calvin Johnson, A.J. Green, Dez Bryant, Brandon Marshall, Demaryius Thomas, Julio Jones

TE: Jimmy Graham, Jason Witten

PK: Stephen Gostkowski, Matt Prater

TD: Seattle Seahawks, San Francisco 49ers

Overview:

Congratulations! You seem to have grabbed quality players at every turn of this draft. It's rare indeed to be better than the average team at the three core positions (quarterback, running back and receiver), but we think this team is. Tight end, of course, is also a big plus for this team.

You must be among the favorites in this league and have positioned yourself to grab one of the playoff spots. But before you start engraving the trophy, realize that the draft is not the end of the story. Things can and do go wrong, so you need to remain diligent throughout the year to ensure you remain strong until the playoffs.

Players we particularly like on this team include Aaron Rodgers, Ray Rice, LeSean McCoy, Jason Witten, Jamaal Charles, Demaryius Thomas, and Matt Prater. We have all these guys ranked ahead of where they are typically being drafted.

Bottom line: This team is a virtual lock to go to the playoffs.
lock.gif

In any event, we wish you the best of luck. Here's hoping all your weeks are like week 16 of 2012:

Dez Bryant vs. NO: 224 receiving yards, 2 TDJamaal Charles vs. IND: 230 combined yards, 1 TD

Aaron Rodgers vs. TEN: 342 passing yards, 4 TD

Calvin Johnson vs. ATL: 225 receiving yards

Ray Rice vs. NYG: 158 combined yards, 1 TD

Drew Brees vs. DAL: 446 passing yards, 3 TD

C.J. Spiller vs. MIA: 173 combined yards

Demaryius Thomas vs. CLE: 102 receiving yards, 1 TD

QB Summary:

You don't need us to tell you this, but we'll tell you anyway: Aaron Rodgers should ensure that your production at the quarterback position is among the best in the league. We have him as the #1 QB according to your scoring rules, and we figure he gives you about a 1.7 point-per-game advantage over an average starting QB.

We also love Drew Brees as a backup. In fact, we think he's good enough to be someone's starting quarterback in this league. With Rodgers in place as your starter, he's something of a luxury for you. If he plays like we expect, you should be able to get good value for him in a trade after quarterback injuries hit some of your opponents.

Incidentally, Brees has what we project as a neutral matchup (MIA) during Rodgers's bye.

RB Summary:

Nice work here. We like both your starting running backs, as our projections indicate that they give you a combined 7.2 point-per-game advantage over an average opponent in this league. Our projections have Adrian Peterson ranked at #1 and Doug Martin ranked at #2.

Your bench also looks good. Tough to do better than Jamaal Charles at RB3; he's a likely flex starter. Ray Rice is also a very nice RB4. Tough to do better than LeSean McCoy at RB5.

C.J. Spiller is an excellent depth pick, though you may not end up using him much.

WR Summary:

Nice work here. We like all your starting receivers, as our projections indicate that they give you a combined 13.4 point-per-game advantage over an average opponent in this league. Calvin Johnson is our #1 ranked receiver, A.J. Green is #2, and we have Dez Bryant third.

Your bench also looks good. We love Brandon Marshall as a fourth receiver. Demaryius Thomas will also be among the best WR5s in the league. Tough to do better than Julio Jones at WR6.

TE Summary:

As you are well aware, Jimmy Graham is an elite tight end. We have him ranked first overall at the position. He's about 4.7 points per game better than an average starting TE in this league. We also think Jason Witten is a starting quality tight end in this league. He's a luxury.

Kicker Summary:

With Stephen Gostkowski and Matt Prater, you should be above average at the position.

Defense Summary:

Between the Seahawks and the 49ers, you should get above average production here.
C.J. Spiller is an excellent depth pick, though you may not end up using him much. :lol:

 

Raider Nation

Devil's Advocate
Your bench also looks good. We love Brandon Marshall as a fourth receiver. Demaryius Thomas will also be among the best WR5s in the league. Tough to do better than Julio Jones at WR6.
LOL

 

DoubleG

Footballguy
Test:

QB: Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees

RB: Adrian Peterson, Doug Martin, Jamaal Charles, Ray Rice, LeSean McCoy, C.J. Spiller

WR: Calvin Johnson, A.J. Green, Dez Bryant, Brandon Marshall, Demaryius Thomas, Julio Jones

TE: Jimmy Graham, Jason Witten

PK: Stephen Gostkowski, Matt Prater

TD: Seattle Seahawks, San Francisco 49ers

Overview:

Congratulations! You seem to have grabbed quality players at every turn of this draft. It's rare indeed to be better than the average team at the three core positions (quarterback, running back and receiver), but we think this team is. Tight end, of course, is also a big plus for this team.

You must be among the favorites in this league and have positioned yourself to grab one of the playoff spots. But before you start engraving the trophy, realize that the draft is not the end of the story. Things can and do go wrong, so you need to remain diligent throughout the year to ensure you remain strong until the playoffs.

Players we particularly like on this team include Aaron Rodgers, Ray Rice, LeSean McCoy, Jason Witten, Jamaal Charles, Demaryius Thomas, and Matt Prater. We have all these guys ranked ahead of where they are typically being drafted.

Bottom line: This team is a virtual lock to go to the playoffs.
lock.gif

In any event, we wish you the best of luck. Here's hoping all your weeks are like week 16 of 2012:

Dez Bryant vs. NO: 224 receiving yards, 2 TDJamaal Charles vs. IND: 230 combined yards, 1 TD

Aaron Rodgers vs. TEN: 342 passing yards, 4 TD

Calvin Johnson vs. ATL: 225 receiving yards

Ray Rice vs. NYG: 158 combined yards, 1 TD

Drew Brees vs. DAL: 446 passing yards, 3 TD

C.J. Spiller vs. MIA: 173 combined yards

Demaryius Thomas vs. CLE: 102 receiving yards, 1 TD

QB Summary:

You don't need us to tell you this, but we'll tell you anyway: Aaron Rodgers should ensure that your production at the quarterback position is among the best in the league. We have him as the #1 QB according to your scoring rules, and we figure he gives you about a 1.7 point-per-game advantage over an average starting QB.

We also love Drew Brees as a backup. In fact, we think he's good enough to be someone's starting quarterback in this league. With Rodgers in place as your starter, he's something of a luxury for you. If he plays like we expect, you should be able to get good value for him in a trade after quarterback injuries hit some of your opponents.

Incidentally, Brees has what we project as a neutral matchup (MIA) during Rodgers's bye.

RB Summary:

Nice work here. We like both your starting running backs, as our projections indicate that they give you a combined 7.2 point-per-game advantage over an average opponent in this league. Our projections have Adrian Peterson ranked at #1 and Doug Martin ranked at #2.

Your bench also looks good. Tough to do better than Jamaal Charles at RB3; he's a likely flex starter. Ray Rice is also a very nice RB4. Tough to do better than LeSean McCoy at RB5.

C.J. Spiller is an excellent depth pick, though you may not end up using him much.

WR Summary:

Nice work here. We like all your starting receivers, as our projections indicate that they give you a combined 13.4 point-per-game advantage over an average opponent in this league. Calvin Johnson is our #1 ranked receiver, A.J. Green is #2, and we have Dez Bryant third.

Your bench also looks good. We love Brandon Marshall as a fourth receiver. Demaryius Thomas will also be among the best WR5s in the league. Tough to do better than Julio Jones at WR6.

TE Summary:

As you are well aware, Jimmy Graham is an elite tight end. We have him ranked first overall at the position. He's about 4.7 points per game better than an average starting TE in this league. We also think Jason Witten is a starting quality tight end in this league. He's a luxury.

Kicker Summary:

With Stephen Gostkowski and Matt Prater, you should be above average at the position.

Defense Summary:

Between the Seahawks and the 49ers, you should get above average production here.
C.J. Spiller is an excellent depth pick, though you may not end up using him much. :lol:
At the end it says "Are you playing with a bunch of 6 year oldZ?!?!?!?"

 

Thursday

Footballguy
Loser team test:

QB: Terrelle Pryor, Mark Sanchez
RB: Montee Ball, LaRod Stephens-Howling, Chris Polk, Ronnie Brown
WR: Markus Wheaton, Dexter McCluster, Brandon Gibson, Nick Toon, Mario Manningham
TE: Rob Housler
PK: Josh Scobee
TD: Oakland Raiders, Jacksonville Jaguars

Overview:

Wait. Are you serious?

You did your research. You put your years of experience to work. And this --- THIS --- is the team you ended up with? How is that even possible? Did you think this was a points-per-suck league?

To call this the

Worst.

Team.

Ever.

would forever cheapen those three words.

You know, normally I like this job. I get to sit here and assess people's fantasy teams. It's fun. I try to help them out. I learn from them and hopefully they learn a little from me. But then someone like you comes along and ruins it. WHY ARE YOU WASTING MY TIME WITH THIS TEAM??! I could be using these electrons and milliseconds to rate the team of someone who cares. Someone with a chance. But that ain't you, buddy, that's for sure.

QB Summary:

We have Terrelle Pryor rated #32 among quarterbacks, so we're not even sold on him as a fantasy starter in your league. And we're not sure that Mark Sanchez (our #33-rated QB) is likely to provide much help.

Incidentally, these two have a terrific combined schedule and a decent playoff schedule too. If you simply played the one with the better matchup each week, this is the schedule you'd face:TB | NE | BUF | TEN | SD | KC | NE | CIN | NO | NYG | BUF | TEN | MIA | OAK | KC | CLE

Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:

Some members of our staff have Mark Sanchez ranked as high as 29th, which would make him a fine second quarterback. Heath Cummings defends his high ranking as follows: "Please don't mistake the fact that I'm higher on Mark Sanchez than most as evidence that I think he's worth consideration in 2013. It's more of an indictment of those I have ranked below him. I'm also not convinced that he won't be the starting quarterback when the season opens."

RB Summary:

We see both your starters at running back as below average. Our projections have Montee Ball ranked at #31 and LaRod Stephens-Howling ranked 67th.

Chris Polk is a very weak third running back. Ronnie Brown also looks somewhat weak as a fourth RB.

A quick note about the same-team Stephens-Howling/Markus Wheaton duo you've got here. Though the effect is probably negligible, this kind of pairing is likely to make your team more (not less) consistent than a comparable-scoring different-team pair. See this article (which was written before the 2008 season) for more discussion.

Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:

Montee Ball is ranked #21 by some of our writers. Adam Harstad reasons, "Willis McGahee is the second oldest RB in the league (behind Fred Jackson), and doesn't have much left in the tank. Knowshon Moreno was inherited by the current coaching staff, and they clearly are not believers of his; they've drafted two RBs in the first three rounds, and had Moreno as a game-day inactive in half of their games last season. Denver's brass has discussed their belief that Hillman is more of a change-of-pace back. Into this void steps Montee Ball, a hyper-productive college back whose stock slipped a little as some questioned his athleticism. Despite a slow 40 time, Ball is a perfect schematic fit for Denver's offense, which is loaded with talent at every position and figures to remain elite for years to come."

Some members of our staff have Chris Polk ranked as high as 46th, which would make him a fine third running back. Matt Waldman defends his high ranking as follows: "Polk was a terrific college player with excellent receiving skills. He broke more legit tackles at Washington than any 2012 prospect I studied. He's also in much better shape than he was this time last year and earning a shot to unseat Bryce Brown for the No.2 job. Don't be surprised if this happens in name, but in role I think Brown will still see enough looks to keep this backup job a committee that renders both a little less useful than desired. "

WR Summary:

We see both your starters at receiver as below average. Markus Wheaton is our 61st ranked WR, and we have Dexter McCluster at #72.

Brandon Gibson is a very weak third receiver. Nick Toon also looks somewhat weak as a fourth WR.

Because you're not particularly strong overall at the position, adding some depth here was a good idea. But we're not convinced Mario Manningham is the right player for the job. Check the end of the report for some alternative suggestions.

Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:

Markus Wheaton is ranked #53 by some of our writers. Andy Hicks reasons, "It won't take much for Markus Wheaton to win the number 3 role for the Steelers. Should he do that, then he stands an excellent shot at strong contributions in 2013. Following the departure of Mike Wallace, Antonio Brown and Emmanuel Sanders need help in a big way and Wheaton should be that help. It's not inconceivable for Wheaton to beat out Sanders by the end of the year either. The Steelers have a knack for getting immediate production out of wide receivers drafted in the 3rd round onwards (Brown, Sanders, Wallace etc). His progress must be monitored throughout the preseason however as he will not see playing time if he isn't ready. "

Some of our staffers have Dexter McCluster as high as #57. Heath Cummings's take: "McCluster will get one more chance to succeed under his third head coach. There's no doubt about his speed and quickness but to this point no one has figured out how to get the diminutive receiver involved in the offense. "

TE Summary:

With only Rob Housler, who we don't think is starter-quality in this league, this position is likely to be a trouble spot for you all season.

Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:

Rob Housler is ranked #18 by some of our writers. Bob Henry reasons, "When doing projections for Housler and the Cardinals, I considered a few different angles: 1) Carson Palmer's tendency to check down to Brandon Myers last year as a Raider, 2) Housler's athleticism and 16.2 YPC from his last two seasons at FAU and 3) Bruce Arian's vertically oriented offensive system that led to the Colts TEs producing 74 catches, 825 yards and 5 TDs last year. Housler's 9.3 YPC last year was more due to the Cardinals inept quarterbacking than it was indicative of his ability. While Arian will install a passing attack aimed at stretching the field, Palmer will probably need to check down frequently which means plenty of targets for Housler. Don't be surprised if he catches 60-to-70 passes for 700+ yards and 4-5 TDs this year - making him an excellent bargain on draft with low TE1 potential. He'd have higher dynasty value if Palmer were younger or if the Cardinals had a viable long-term solution."

Kicker Summary:

We don't think Josh Scobee is starter quality in this league. Keep a sharp eye on the waiver wire.

Defense Summary:

When you don't have an elite defense, one option is a committee approach. That is, try to get two cheap defenses whose schedules fit well together. Here are a few teams who we think may be available and whose schedules fit best with the Raiders', along with the combined schedule that each would create:

Raiders + Chargers = IND | JAX | TEN | DAL | SD | IND | JAX | PIT | PHI | NYG | MIA | TEN | CIN | NYJ | KC | SD
Raiders + Browns = MIA | JAX | MIN | CIN | SD | DET | GB | PIT | PHI | NYG | CIN | TEN | JAX | NYJ | CHI | NYJ
Raiders + Buccaneers = NYJ | JAX | DEN | ARI | SD | PHI | ATL | PIT | PHI | MIA | ATL | TEN | DAL | NYJ | KC | SD
 

Slapdash

Footballguy
If you draft by FBG's projections, then they will always say you should make playoffs.
so let's just say every single team used the draft dominator and never deviated from its recommendations except for in situations where it didn't fill your roster out appropriately.

would then every team with AVERAGE in-season management be over 50% to make teh playoffs?
You mean I don't have a 94% chance of making the playoffs with average in season? :confused:

 

mike11162

Footballguy
I don't really find it that useful any more. Mostly check it out for entertainment value. I ran it on one of my leagues recently and there was a team that had either Rodgers or Brees as its starting QB and a backup like Cutler, and they called the team weak at QB. If you don't have one of their five favorite WRs you will always be classified as weak at the position, no matter how deep you might be at the position. Another draft I was in there was a team that basically had no starting RBs and they rated it the best team in the league. It's hard to take it seriously.

 

MattFancy

Footballguy
I use it for all my teams, but I don't always agree with everything.

Like someone mentioned above, if you don't have guys ranked in the top 5 of their position, it'll say you're weak at that spot. They have RG3 ranked #8 among QBs, but then whenever I draft him, I'm always weak at QB. Which is funny because Dodds' strategy is to wait on QBs.

 

habsfan

Footballguy
If you draft by FBG's projections, then they will always say you should make playoffs.
This is the essence of what will be "wrong" with any of these complimentary predictive tools.

Yahoo this year is not only grading your draft but also projected season W/L record. We had two teams with C+ grades yet one was projected to 9-4 while the other was 4-9 yet schedule is apparently not factored in....

 

FlapJacks

Footballguy
I use it for all my teams, but I don't always agree with everything.

Like someone mentioned above, if you don't have guys ranked in the top 5 of their position, it'll say you're weak at that spot. They have RG3 ranked #8 among QBs, but then whenever I draft him, I'm always weak at QB. Which is funny because Dodds' strategy is to wait on QBs.
8th at QB in an 8, 10 or 12 team league is weak.

 

MattFancy

Footballguy
I use it for all my teams, but I don't always agree with everything.

Like someone mentioned above, if you don't have guys ranked in the top 5 of their position, it'll say you're weak at that spot. They have RG3 ranked #8 among QBs, but then whenever I draft him, I'm always weak at QB. Which is funny because Dodds' strategy is to wait on QBs.
8th at QB in an 8, 10 or 12 team league is weak.
In a 10-team sure. In a 12-team, not really. Still would have a better QB than a 1/4 of the league and about the same as 1/2 the league. Figure 5-8 are about average and close in point totals.

And like I said, I think it's funny because Dodds always says wait for a QB. So you follow his strategy and then he says QB is weak and you should've taken one earlier. Just doesn't make sense.

 

habsfan

Footballguy
People really waste their time with this feature?
In a hobby with so much reliance on numbers, projections and stats, I don't think some mild curiosity regarding the inner workings of something like this is too weird. To start talking about "wasting time" in fantasy football, you embark on a bit of a slippery slope...

 

Dentist

***Official FBG Dentist***
You would prefer an ap that didnt approve of its own projections? How exactly is that supposed to work?
wait, it's an app?

I thought when i submitted it that Dodds looked over everyone's teams and the intricacies on my league personally and then wrote all that stuff up

 

Maurile Tremblay

Administrator
Staff member
I use it for all my teams, but I don't always agree with everything.

Like someone mentioned above, if you don't have guys ranked in the top 5 of their position, it'll say you're weak at that spot. They have RG3 ranked #8 among QBs, but then whenever I draft him, I'm always weak at QB. Which is funny because Dodds' strategy is to wait on QBs.
8th at QB in an 8, 10 or 12 team league is weak.
In a 10-team sure. In a 12-team, not really. Still would have a better QB than a 1/4 of the league and about the same as 1/2 the league. Figure 5-8 are about average and close in point totals.

And like I said, I think it's funny because Dodds always says wait for a QB. So you follow his strategy and then he says QB is weak and you should've taken one earlier. Just doesn't make sense.
Being weak at QB doesn't mean you should have taken one earlier. Sometimes the correct strategy is to be weak at QB.

 

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