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Rating the Top WR's in the NFL (1 Viewer)

pghrob

Footballguy
Breaking Down The Wide Receiver Position

Breaking Down The Wide Receiver Position

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Published, 8/4/11

Note: Check out Cosell’s previous articles on the QB and RB position from previous years.

It is now an act of faith that the NFL is a passing league. It is no longer open to discussion. The objective is not to reduce the field with a physical approach, however effective that may be, but rather to expand the field with athletic skill players who can quickly accumulate yards and points. The term “explosive plays” has become the new mantra, the “holy grail” of offensive football. It’s expressed with a passion and a fervor that rivals Sunday morning preachers exhorting the gospel or Republicans blindly reciting “no new taxes.”

We know this focus on the passing game as the search for truth has elevated the quarterback position to the level of deity. Organizations pursue “franchise” quarterbacks with an infatuation and obsession that bring to mind man’s (or college boys’) quest for the perfect “10.” There’s a hope and a yearning that borders on fanaticism. We saw it again in the 2011 NFL Draft, with four quarterbacks (none worthy) selected in the top 12. We’ll save a dialogue on the game’s most important position for another time.

What I find most surprising is that this dual emphasis on the passing game and the quarterback has not meaningfully impacted the perception of the wide receiver position. That would seem to be a philosophical disconnect. I’m familiar with the arguments, two of which are most often presented: Scheme and route combinations (in other words, coaching) can create open receivers, and high level quarterback play, with its timing, anticipation, and accuracy, can raise the level of play of lesser receivers.

Certainly, there is some truth to that. I have always been a strong believer that exceptional offensive coaches can positively manipulate the play of both the quarterback and the passing game overall. Two prime examples are Bill Walsh and Joe Montana with the San Francisco 49ers in the 1980s, and Mike Martz and Kurt Warner with the “Greatest Show on Turf” in St. Louis.

But make no mistake; it is almost impossible to have an outstanding passing game over time without excellent receivers. Think about it this way: Complete wide receivers, those who can stretch defenses vertically and run precise intermediate routes, dictate coverage schemes. And coverage schemes must coordinate with front concepts for the defense to be properly balanced. Therefore, elite wide receivers determine the overall defensive approach. There is no greater impact than that.

In addition, the more the NFL incorporates spread principles, with 3 and 4 wide receivers on the field, the more important the position becomes. One thing I am seeing defensively in response to the evolving spread concepts is more man coverage schemes. It may not be pure man, with no safety help over the top, but it’s still man, with corners asked to match up.

The bottom line then for wide receivers is that they must be able to defeat man coverage. If they can’t, they will have a limited shelf life in the NFL. It’s a litmus test that can’t be cheated. I always come back to what Troy Aikman told me years ago. He said if your passing game is not functioning against man coverage because your receivers are always covered closely, and as a result the quarterback is making throws that appear forced, then you need new receivers, not a new quarterback. That puts it in its proper perspective.

One of the best man route runners in the league over the last decade has been (Carolina’s) Steve Smith. Smith is an explosive combination of lateral quickness, physical strength, competitiveness, and vertical acceleration. He has been hampered by inconsistent (I’m being kind) quarterback play in Carolina the past few years, but Smith is a dynamic man beater with great run-after-the-catch ability.

Another excellent man-to-man route runner is Chad Ochocinco. His game has always been about lateral explosiveness, with the ability to change direction quickly. That attribute is what it takes to defeat man coverage. It will be very interesting to follow Chad in New England. The Patriots pass game concepts differ fairly significantly from the Bengals’. Cincinnati’s base approach, particularly at the intermediate levels, was based on timing and anticipation. More often than not, Carson Palmer delivered the football well before Ochocinco made his break. That put the premium on precise timing. The Patriots, with Tom Brady, are a little different. Their core philosophy relies less on anticipation and more on reading and reacting to coverage on the move. The route concepts primarily attack the shorter areas of the defense, with the receivers working off the leverage of the coverage.

Based on my film study over the last couple of seasons, I believe the top 5 wide receivers in the NFL are Andre Johnson (incredibly special), Calvin Johnson, Greg Jennings, Larry Fitzgerald and Santonio Holmes. Roddy White, with his combination of size and movement, was difficult to leave out. His quickness always seems to surprise me when I watch tape. Numbers and statistics are not the barometer by which to measure receiver play (I know they are for fantasy players but as we know, there are always reasons why some players produce big numbers and others don’t. One could easily argue that C. Johnson, if fortunate enough to play in a pass heavy offense with a top level quarterback, would catch over 100 passes on a yearly basis).

Jennings and Holmes are 2 receivers I love on film. They are both smooth and fluid, with outstanding lateral explosion. They both have excellent ground control (the ability to play fast and balanced at the same time as they run their routes) and body control. They both can change direction with one step and get in-and-out of breaks with precision and quickness. And what really stands out: They do not give away their routes off the line of scrimmage. Their initial steps and vertical stem almost always look the same. This is a decisive attribute that often separates the consistently good receivers from the inconsistent ones, even if the skill levels are similar. It is one of the characteristics of route running that defensive backs always talk about when evaluating receivers. The reason: It makes it very difficult for them to read and to anticipate their routes.

Fitzgerald is a virtuoso tactician at the position. He is not unlike the grand master chess champion who commands the board and is always 3 or 4 moves ahead of the opponent. He understands the subtle nuances of alignment, splits, and route running, against both man and zone, better than any receiver in the NFL. All NFL pass games are predicated on receiver distribution and location. Distribution is the number of receivers to one side of the formation. Location annotates which receivers they are. For instance, in a 3x1 set, with 3 receivers to one side of the formation, those receivers could be 3 wide receivers, 2 wide receivers and a tight end, 1 wide receiver and 1 tight end and 1 back. By the way, receiver distribution and location dictates how defenses match up in terms of coverage.

Within the context of distribution, splits are critical. That refers to the exact spot in which the receivers are aligned. It is not random, and it is based on singular routes and route combinations. Fitzgerald is a maestro at utilizing splits and releases to gain an advantage, and most important, to make certain that he is where he needs to be when he needs to be there. That is perhaps the true essence of route running: All routes coordinate (or sync up) with the drop of the quarterback, whether it be 3 step, 5 step or 7 step. It is the receiver’s responsibility to be where he is supposed to be at the right time. Few, if any, do it better than Fitzgerald.

Two young receivers whom I find particularly intriguing are Hakeem Nicksof the Giants, and the Buccaneers’ Mike Williams. Nicks has surprised me; I did not see the kind of movement when I studied him at North Carolina that he has exhibited in the NFL. Nicks is an ideal case study of how a team’s offensive concepts complement the skill set of a wide receiver. The Giants foundation is the run game, out of base personnel. Nicks is the “x,” or weak side receiver (the same position Plaxico Burress played). Almost all defenses match up by getting a safety (the 8th defender) involved in the run game, more often than not on the strong side. That leaves Nicks, a big and physical receiver, one-on-one on the perimeter. He’s a difficult cover.

I will follow Williams closely in 2011. He’s tall and lanky, a long strider with deceptive vertical speed. He’s not laterally explosive as a change-of-direction route runner. He won’t throttle down and then separate with quickness and burst. He’s more of a speed cut route runner with excellent body control and the ability to cover ground swiftly. What stood out in his rookie season was his competitiveness in attacking the ball in the air. He is clearly the Bucs’ number one receiver, and he has a chance with his skill set to develop into a consistent big-play receiver.

So we’re back to where we started: explosive plays. It’s what drives offensive football in the NFL. It’s the primary reason (but as we’ve seen, not the only reason) the wide receiver position is one of the most important in the league. Its significance cannot be underestimated or undervalued.

WR Comparison Chart

Here are Greg Cosell’s grades for the league’s RBs in a variety of categories discussed in this article. Keep in mind that a high score in certain categories does not necessarily correlate to being a great RB. For instance, a player such as Donald Driver grades out very highly, yet he’s clearly on the downside of his career. These grades are more for reference and do not necessarily present an accurate portrait of the WRs.

Click below to get Comparison Chart

Breaking Down The Wide Receiver Position

 
Player Tm Speed Lateral Agility Quicks Routes Hands Release off line Physicality Red Zone effectiveness Total

Andre Johnson HOU 9 9 8 9 8 9 10 10 72

Calvin Johnson DET 9 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 71

Larry Fitzgerald ARI 6 7 7 10 10 9 9 9 67

Roddy White ATL 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 67

Reggie Wayne IND 7 7 7 10 9 9 9 8 66

Santonio Holmes NYJ 8 10 9 9 9 8 6 7 66

Greg Jennings GB 8 9 9 9 9 8 6 7 65

Steve Smith CAR 9 9 9 7 8 8 9 5 64

Marques Colston NO 6 7 7 9 9 8 9 9 64

Dwayne Bowe KC 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 63

Vincent Jackson SD 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 63

Donald Driver GB 6 8 7 9 9 8 8 7 62

Brandon Marshall MIA 7 8 8 7 6 8 9 9 62

Percy Harvin MIN 9 9 9 6 7 8 8 6 62

Wes Welker NE 5 9 9 9 9 9 5 7 62

Hines Ward PIT 5 6 6 9 9 9 10 8 62

Anquan Boldin BAL 5 6 6 9 9 9 9 8 61

Miles Austin DAL 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 8 61

Hakeem Nicks NYG 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 61

Malcom Floyd SD 8 7 7 7 8 7 9 8 61

A.J. Green CIN 9 9 8 7 7 6 6 8 60

Dez Bryant DAL 8 8 8 6 7 7 8 8 60

Brandon Lloyd DEN 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 6 60

Eddie Royal DEN 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 60

Julio Jones ® ATL 7 7 7 7 7 7 9 8 59

Jordy Nelson GB 7 7 7 8 8 7 8 7 59

Sidney Rice MIN 7 6 7 7 8 7 8 9 59

Steven Smith NYG 6 8 7 9 9 8 6 6 59

Jeremy Maclin PHI 8 7 8 7 7 7 8 7 59

Mike Williams TB 8 7 8 6 8 7 7 8 59

Lee Evans BUF 8 7 8 8 8 7 6 6 58

David Gettis CAR 7 7 7 7 8 7 8 7 58

Pierre Garcon IND 8 7 7 7 6 7 8 8 58

Mike Thomas JAC 7 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 58

Louis Murphy OAK 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 58

DeSean Jackson PHI 10 9 9 6 8 6 5 5 58

Mike Wallace PIT 10 7 8 7 7 7 6 6 58

Michael Crabtree SF 7 7 8 7 8 7 8 6 58

Kenny Britt TEN 7 7 7 6 8 7 8 8 58

Steve Johnson BUF 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 57

Jacoby Jones HOU 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 57

Austin Collie IND 6 8 8 8 9 8 5 5 57

Braylon Edwards NYJ 8 7 7 7 5 7 8 8 57

Danario Alexander STL 7 6 6 7 7 7 9 8 57

Steve Breaston ARI 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 56

Jerome Simpson CIN 9 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 56

Mike Sims-Walker JAC 6 7 7 8 8 7 7 6 56

Davone Bess MIA 6 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 56

Lance Moore NO 6 7 7 8 8 7 6 7 56

Santana Moss WAS 8 8 8 7 7 7 5 6 56

Jordan Shipley CIN 7 8 8 8 8 6 5 5 55

Jonathan Baldwin ® KC 7 6 6 7 8 6 7 8 55

Deion Branch NE 6 7 8 8 8 7 6 5 55

Jacoby Ford OAK 9 8 9 6 7 6 5 5 55

Josh Morgan SF 6 6 6 7 8 7 8 7 55

Danny Amendola STL 6 8 8 8 8 7 5 5 55

Greg Little ® CLE 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 54

Randall Cobb ® GB 8 8 8 6 8 6 5 5 54

Vincent Brown ® SD 7 7 7 8 8 7 5 5 54

Chad Ochocinco CIN 7 8 8 7 7 7 4 5 53

Denarius Moore ® OAK 9 6 6 6 7 6 7 6 53

Robert Meachem NO 9 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 52

Michael Williams SEA 4 5 5 6 8 8 8 8 52

Leonard Hankerson ® WAS 7 6 6 6 7 6 7 7 52

Johnny Knox CHI 9 9 9 6 6 5 3 4 51

James Jones GB 6 6 6 7 5 7 7 7 51

Mario Manningham NYG 8 8 8 6 6 5 5 5 51

Golden Tate SEA 7 5 6 5 6 6 8 6 49

Brandon Tate NE 8 6 6 5 6 5 6 6 48

 
Player Tm Speed Lateral Agility Quicks Routes Hands Release off line Physicality Red Zone effectiveness Total

Andre Johnson HOU 9 9 8 9 8 9 10 10 72

Calvin Johnson DET 9 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 71

Larry Fitzgerald ARI 6 7 7 10 10 9 9 9 67

Roddy White ATL 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 67

Reggie Wayne IND 7 7 7 10 9 9 9 8 66

Santonio Holmes NYJ 8 10 9 9 9 8 6 7 66

Greg Jennings GB 8 9 9 9 9 8 6 7 65

Steve Smith CAR 9 9 9 7 8 8 9 5 64

Marques Colston NO 6 7 7 9 9 8 9 9 64

Dwayne Bowe KC 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 63

Vincent Jackson SD 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 63

Donald Driver GB 6 8 7 9 9 8 8 7 62

Brandon Marshall MIA 7 8 8 7 6 8 9 9 62

Percy Harvin MIN 9 9 9 6 7 8 8 6 62

Wes Welker NE 5 9 9 9 9 9 5 7 62

Hines Ward PIT 5 6 6 9 9 9 10 8 62

Anquan Boldin BAL 5 6 6 9 9 9 9 8 61

Miles Austin DAL 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 8 61

Hakeem Nicks NYG 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 61

Malcom Floyd SD 8 7 7 7 8 7 9 8 61

A.J. Green CIN 9 9 8 7 7 6 6 8 60

Dez Bryant DAL 8 8 8 6 7 7 8 8 60

Brandon Lloyd DEN 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 6 60

Eddie Royal DEN 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 60

Julio Jones ® ATL 7 7 7 7 7 7 9 8 59

Jordy Nelson GB 7 7 7 8 8 7 8 7 59

Sidney Rice MIN 7 6 7 7 8 7 8 9 59

Steven Smith NYG 6 8 7 9 9 8 6 6 59

Jeremy Maclin PHI 8 7 8 7 7 7 8 7 59

Mike Williams TB 8 7 8 6 8 7 7 8 59

Lee Evans BUF 8 7 8 8 8 7 6 6 58

David Gettis CAR 7 7 7 7 8 7 8 7 58

Pierre Garcon IND 8 7 7 7 6 7 8 8 58

Mike Thomas JAC 7 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 58

Louis Murphy OAK 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 58

DeSean Jackson PHI 10 9 9 6 8 6 5 5 58

Mike Wallace PIT 10 7 8 7 7 7 6 6 58

Michael Crabtree SF 7 7 8 7 8 7 8 6 58

Kenny Britt TEN 7 7 7 6 8 7 8 8 58

Steve Johnson BUF 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 57

Jacoby Jones HOU 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 57

Austin Collie IND 6 8 8 8 9 8 5 5 57

Braylon Edwards NYJ 8 7 7 7 5 7 8 8 57

Danario Alexander STL 7 6 6 7 7 7 9 8 57

Steve Breaston ARI 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 56

Jerome Simpson CIN 9 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 56

Mike Sims-Walker JAC 6 7 7 8 8 7 7 6 56

Davone Bess MIA 6 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 56

Lance Moore NO 6 7 7 8 8 7 6 7 56

Santana Moss WAS 8 8 8 7 7 7 5 6 56

Jordan Shipley CIN 7 8 8 8 8 6 5 5 55

Jonathan Baldwin ® KC 7 6 6 7 8 6 7 8 55

Deion Branch NE 6 7 8 8 8 7 6 5 55

Jacoby Ford OAK 9 8 9 6 7 6 5 5 55

Josh Morgan SF 6 6 6 7 8 7 8 7 55

Danny Amendola STL 6 8 8 8 8 7 5 5 55

Greg Little ® CLE 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 54

Randall Cobb ® GB 8 8 8 6 8 6 5 5 54

Vincent Brown ® SD 7 7 7 8 8 7 5 5 54

Chad Ochocinco CIN 7 8 8 7 7 7 4 5 53

Denarius Moore ® OAK 9 6 6 6 7 6 7 6 53

Robert Meachem NO 9 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 52

Michael Williams SEA 4 5 5 6 8 8 8 8 52

Leonard Hankerson ® WAS 7 6 6 6 7 6 7 7 52

Johnny Knox CHI 9 9 9 6 6 5 3 4 51

James Jones GB 6 6 6 7 5 7 7 7 51

Mario Manningham NYG 8 8 8 6 6 5 5 5 51

Golden Tate SEA 7 5 6 5 6 6 8 6 49

Brandon Tate NE 8 6 6 5 6 5 6 6 48

 
The methodology is flawed in my view. Each measure is accorded equal weight which is ridiculous. "toughness" is valued the same as speed, hands or route running?

I don't think so.

 
The methodology is flawed in my view. Each measure is accorded equal weight which is ridiculous. "toughness" is valued the same as speed, hands or route running? I don't think so.
:goodposting: Others have defended Cosell on this board in the past, I think the guy knows a lot about football, but isn't good at analysis.
 
Based on my film study over the last couple of seasons, I believe the top 5 wide receivers in the NFL are Andre Johnson (incredibly special), Calvin Johnson, Greg Jennings, Larry Fitzgerald and Santonio Holmes.
obviously he feels his own WR grading chart is uselessI feel his chart is missing a durability category
 
Last edited by a moderator:
The methodology is flawed in my view. Each measure is accorded equal weight which is ridiculous. "toughness" is valued the same as speed, hands or route running? I don't think so.
:goodposting: Others have defended Cosell on this board in the past, I think the guy knows a lot about football, but isn't good at analysis.
I'm a Lhucks fan but, remember last month when you thought Cossel was some Fantasy Blogger that you were willing to put your resume up against. :lol: And if that was shtick, it's just horrible.That said, if you go back to that thread and compare it to this one, he did push Jennings down on his list a bit - Maybe he reads YOU ;)Overall, this list is not about Fantasy Football but, a ranking of talent regardless of QB, Team or system.I like it.
 
These grades are more for reference and do not necessarily present an accurate portrait of the WRs.
:lmao: Really? You spend all this time making a list and checking it twice with a preamble fit for a congressional act, then tell us that it's pretty much worthless? Waste of time. The preamble is pretty interesting though.
 
The methodology is flawed in my view. Each measure is accorded equal weight which is ridiculous. "toughness" is valued the same as speed, hands or route running?

I don't think so.
It's more than that, though. I think, by and large, talent evaluation is an unconscious process. There are so many variables at work that the conscious mind has a hard time honestly evaluating even a single play, let alone evaluating an entire body of work and then comparing that body of work to someone else's body of work. Instead, the brain handles all of those intricate calculations and comparisons and evaluations behind the curtain of our subconscious, and then prints out a result which our conscious mind then reads off. There's nothing wrong with this- many studies have demonstrated how much better the subconscious is than the conscious mind at making difficult evaluations. That's true from Joe Smith the plumber all the way up to the most elite NFL scouts and even the players themselves. For instance, ask Larry Fitzgerald after a play sometime why he juked one way instead of the other, and you'll likely get an answer like "it felt right", or "it seemed like the thing to do". His unconscious mind is an unbelievable machine, processing hundreds of data points and making complex (and correct!) calculations and blazing speed.The problem is that we humans have developed a distrust for our subconscious and pre-conscious mind. Maybe it stems back to all those math teachers who marked our answers wrong if we didn't show our work, because we now have a driving societal need to show our work. When arguing that Larry Fitzgerald is better than Andre Johnson (or vice versa), we can't just say "he just is". We have to provide concrete, conscious reasons. As a result, we give a long list of reasons why we think Fitz is better than AJ (or vice versa). Only that's not how our brain works- we don't come up with a list of reasons and then weigh those reasons and decide, we come up with a decision and then search for a list of reasons to confirm our decision. Not only are those reasons frequently incorrect (and highly susceptible to every cognitive bias known to man, beginning and ending with the grandaddy of them all: confirmation bias), but the mere act of looking for rational and quantifiable reasons REDUCES THE EFFECTIVENESS of our incredibly efficient pre-conscious decision-making process.

Again, there are numerous scientific studies demonstrating this. For one example, scientists had jelly experts rate 30 different brands of grape jelly. They then selected the best, the worst, the median, and the 1st and 3rd quartile jellies (call them 100%, 75%, 50%, 25%, and 0%). They gave these 5 jellies to the public and had them do a taste test and then rate the 5 jellies. The general public was pretty good at rating the jellies in this test- the best jelly always finished in the top 3, the worst jelly always finished in the bottom 3, etc. Scientists then repeated the experiment, but they asked the public to rationalize their choices before rating- to consider categories such as flavor, mouth-feel, aftertaste, etc. By asking the public to consider possible reasons, scientists destroyed their ability to evaluate the jellies. Suddenly people were rating the worst one as the best, and the best one as the worst, and the public ratings no longer correlated with the expert ratings. This is why it's exactly the wrong idea to try to come up with different categories, and then score the receivers in those categories, and then total the scores, and then present that total score as if it's in any way meaningful.

Even more than that, the tendency for the conscious mind to try to justify unconscious or pre-conscious beliefs means that the conscious mind frequently has to make things up. This is easily observed when talking to lay-people about their favorite WRs. There's this common belief that the best receivers are awesome at everything. For instance, back in the early 2000s, if you asked people to rate Terrell Owens in a series of categories, they'd be doing crazy things like giving him a 9 or 10 in "hands" and a 9 or 10 in "deep threat". Or they'd be giving Marvin Harrison a 10 in straight line speed and a 10 in after-the-catch skills. Obviously that is nonsense- we know that Owens has garbage hands and Harrison stepped out of bounds the second anyone came within 5 yards of him. That doesn't mean these guys weren't two of the three best receivers in the entire league- Owens' after-the-catch skills were surreal, and the two things Harrison was good at (getting open and catching the football) were actually kind of important skills for a wide receiver.

Looking at the chart, it seems clear that Cosell is blatantly guilty of that same fallacy. He's giving players ratings in skills based on how good he thinks that player is overall, not how good that player actually is in that particular skill. For the strong majority of players, there's no more than a 3-point spread between their best and their worst skill, and if you eliminate their high and low score there's only a 1-2 point spread between all their other scores. There were only three "10s" awarded outside of the top 6, and all of them were cases of hype vs. reality (Hines Ward got a 10 in "physicality" based on the overrated "Hines Ward is the best blocking WR of all time" myth, while Desean and Wallace got 10s in speed based on getting a lot of catches over 20 yards). Look, Desean and Wallace are both scary-fast (Desean ran a 4.35, Wallace ran a 4.33). Neither is faster than Jacoby Ford (4.28), though. Ford, though, got rated a 9- the same score as A.J. Green, who ran a freaking 4.48. Ford saw his rating downgraded a point because he's not subjectively viewed as an "elite" receiver. Likewise, Green got his ranking kicked up at least a notch (and likely 2 or more) because he's viewed as an "elite" prospect. Meanwhile, Fitzgerald ran a nearly identical 40 time (4.53), and yet Fitz got rated a 6 in speed- he's not getting the general "elite receiver" bump because he's developed his reputation as a possession guy. And the whole idea that Andre Johnson is a better red zone threat than Fitz despite 15 fewer TDs on 60 more catches *AND* being a superior deep threat is questionable.

It's clear that these numbers are just conjured from thin air to try to provide some sort of conscious, quantifiable support to impressions that are neither conscious nor quantifiable. The mere act of trying to reduce elegant unconscious calculations to clumsy conscious charts not only lessens their applicability, it also lessens their accuracy. I understand that in this era of informational overload, people can't just say "this is just what I think, and that will have to be good enough", because consumers demand some sort of "proof of expertise" before they'll listen to what you're saying. I just think it's ironic (and slightly tragic) that in our scramble to provide that "proof of expertise", we're frequently compromising the very expertise we're trying to prove. It might not be a satisfactory answer, but sometimes "that's just how I feel" is still the right answer.

 
The methodology is flawed in my view. Each measure is accorded equal weight which is ridiculous. "toughness" is valued the same as speed, hands or route running?

I don't think so.
It's more than that, though. I think, by and large, talent evaluation is an unconscious process. There are so many variables at work that the conscious mind has a hard time honestly evaluating even a single play, let alone evaluating an entire body of work and then comparing that body of work to someone else's body of work. Instead, the brain handles all of those intricate calculations and comparisons and evaluations behind the curtain of our subconscious, and then prints out a result which our conscious mind then reads off. There's nothing wrong with this- many studies have demonstrated how much better the subconscious is than the conscious mind at making difficult evaluations. That's true from Joe Smith the plumber all the way up to the most elite NFL scouts and even the players themselves. For instance, ask Larry Fitzgerald after a play sometime why he juked one way instead of the other, and you'll likely get an answer like "it felt right", or "it seemed like the thing to do". His unconscious mind is an unbelievable machine, processing hundreds of data points and making complex (and correct!) calculations and blazing speed.The problem is that we humans have developed a distrust for our subconscious and pre-conscious mind. Maybe it stems back to all those math teachers who marked our answers wrong if we didn't show our work, because we now have a driving societal need to show our work. When arguing that Larry Fitzgerald is better than Andre Johnson (or vice versa), we can't just say "he just is". We have to provide concrete, conscious reasons. As a result, we give a long list of reasons why we think Fitz is better than AJ (or vice versa). Only that's not how our brain works- we don't come up with a list of reasons and then weigh those reasons and decide, we come up with a decision and then search for a list of reasons to confirm our decision. Not only are those reasons frequently incorrect (and highly susceptible to every cognitive bias known to man, beginning and ending with the grandaddy of them all: confirmation bias), but the mere act of looking for rational and quantifiable reasons REDUCES THE EFFECTIVENESS of our incredibly efficient pre-conscious decision-making process.

Again, there are numerous scientific studies demonstrating this. For one example, scientists had jelly experts rate 30 different brands of grape jelly. They then selected the best, the worst, the median, and the 1st and 3rd quartile jellies (call them 100%, 75%, 50%, 25%, and 0%). They gave these 5 jellies to the public and had them do a taste test and then rate the 5 jellies. The general public was pretty good at rating the jellies in this test- the best jelly always finished in the top 3, the worst jelly always finished in the bottom 3, etc. Scientists then repeated the experiment, but they asked the public to rationalize their choices before rating- to consider categories such as flavor, mouth-feel, aftertaste, etc. By asking the public to consider possible reasons, scientists destroyed their ability to evaluate the jellies. Suddenly people were rating the worst one as the best, and the best one as the worst, and the public ratings no longer correlated with the expert ratings. This is why it's exactly the wrong idea to try to come up with different categories, and then score the receivers in those categories, and then total the scores, and then present that total score as if it's in any way meaningful.

Even more than that, the tendency for the conscious mind to try to justify unconscious or pre-conscious beliefs means that the conscious mind frequently has to make things up. This is easily observed when talking to lay-people about their favorite WRs. There's this common belief that the best receivers are awesome at everything. For instance, back in the early 2000s, if you asked people to rate Terrell Owens in a series of categories, they'd be doing crazy things like giving him a 9 or 10 in "hands" and a 9 or 10 in "deep threat". Or they'd be giving Marvin Harrison a 10 in straight line speed and a 10 in after-the-catch skills. Obviously that is nonsense- we know that Owens has garbage hands and Harrison stepped out of bounds the second anyone came within 5 yards of him. That doesn't mean these guys weren't two of the three best receivers in the entire league- Owens' after-the-catch skills were surreal, and the two things Harrison was good at (getting open and catching the football) were actually kind of important skills for a wide receiver.

Looking at the chart, it seems clear that Cosell is blatantly guilty of that same fallacy. He's giving players ratings in skills based on how good he thinks that player is overall, not how good that player actually is in that particular skill. For the strong majority of players, there's no more than a 3-point spread between their best and their worst skill, and if you eliminate their high and low score there's only a 1-2 point spread between all their other scores. There were only three "10s" awarded outside of the top 6, and all of them were cases of hype vs. reality (Hines Ward got a 10 in "physicality" based on the overrated "Hines Ward is the best blocking WR of all time" myth, while Desean and Wallace got 10s in speed based on getting a lot of catches over 20 yards). Look, Desean and Wallace are both scary-fast (Desean ran a 4.35, Wallace ran a 4.33). Neither is faster than Jacoby Ford (4.28), though. Ford, though, got rated a 9- the same score as A.J. Green, who ran a freaking 4.48. Ford saw his rating downgraded a point because he's not subjectively viewed as an "elite" receiver. Likewise, Green got his ranking kicked up at least a notch (and likely 2 or more) because he's viewed as an "elite" prospect. Meanwhile, Fitzgerald ran a nearly identical 40 time (4.53), and yet Fitz got rated a 6 in speed- he's not getting the general "elite receiver" bump because he's developed his reputation as a possession guy. And the whole idea that Andre Johnson is a better red zone threat than Fitz despite 15 fewer TDs on 60 more catches *AND* being a superior deep threat is questionable.

It's clear that these numbers are just conjured from thin air to try to provide some sort of conscious, quantifiable support to impressions that are neither conscious nor quantifiable. The mere act of trying to reduce elegant unconscious calculations to clumsy conscious charts not only lessens their applicability, it also lessens their accuracy. I understand that in this era of informational overload, people can't just say "this is just what I think, and that will have to be good enough", because consumers demand some sort of "proof of expertise" before they'll listen to what you're saying. I just think it's ironic (and slightly tragic) that in our scramble to provide that "proof of expertise", we're frequently compromising the very expertise we're trying to prove. It might not be a satisfactory answer, but sometimes "that's just how I feel" is still the right answer.
Great post SSOG- one thing to love about profootballfocus is that their scoring system works well with these observations. Basially a play is graded from -2 to 2 so they are basically taking that unconscious calculation and putting it on a scale. Ie did i like what I saw out of that player or not that play, without having to sum up the total of the components of that play.

 
The methodology is flawed in my view. Each measure is accorded equal weight which is ridiculous. "toughness" is valued the same as speed, hands or route running?

I don't think so.
It's more than that, though. I think, by and large, talent evaluation is an unconscious process. There are so many variables at work that the conscious mind has a hard time honestly evaluating even a single play, let alone evaluating an entire body of work and then comparing that body of work to someone else's body of work. Instead, the brain handles all of those intricate calculations and comparisons and evaluations behind the curtain of our subconscious, and then prints out a result which our conscious mind then reads off. There's nothing wrong with this- many studies have demonstrated how much better the subconscious is than the conscious mind at making difficult evaluations. That's true from Joe Smith the plumber all the way up to the most elite NFL scouts and even the players themselves. For instance, ask Larry Fitzgerald after a play sometime why he juked one way instead of the other, and you'll likely get an answer like "it felt right", or "it seemed like the thing to do". His unconscious mind is an unbelievable machine, processing hundreds of data points and making complex (and correct!) calculations and blazing speed.The problem is that we humans have developed a distrust for our subconscious and pre-conscious mind. Maybe it stems back to all those math teachers who marked our answers wrong if we didn't show our work, because we now have a driving societal need to show our work. When arguing that Larry Fitzgerald is better than Andre Johnson (or vice versa), we can't just say "he just is". We have to provide concrete, conscious reasons. As a result, we give a long list of reasons why we think Fitz is better than AJ (or vice versa). Only that's not how our brain works- we don't come up with a list of reasons and then weigh those reasons and decide, we come up with a decision and then search for a list of reasons to confirm our decision. Not only are those reasons frequently incorrect (and highly susceptible to every cognitive bias known to man, beginning and ending with the grandaddy of them all: confirmation bias), but the mere act of looking for rational and quantifiable reasons REDUCES THE EFFECTIVENESS of our incredibly efficient pre-conscious decision-making process.

Again, there are numerous scientific studies demonstrating this. For one example, scientists had jelly experts rate 30 different brands of grape jelly. They then selected the best, the worst, the median, and the 1st and 3rd quartile jellies (call them 100%, 75%, 50%, 25%, and 0%). They gave these 5 jellies to the public and had them do a taste test and then rate the 5 jellies. The general public was pretty good at rating the jellies in this test- the best jelly always finished in the top 3, the worst jelly always finished in the bottom 3, etc. Scientists then repeated the experiment, but they asked the public to rationalize their choices before rating- to consider categories such as flavor, mouth-feel, aftertaste, etc. By asking the public to consider possible reasons, scientists destroyed their ability to evaluate the jellies. Suddenly people were rating the worst one as the best, and the best one as the worst, and the public ratings no longer correlated with the expert ratings. This is why it's exactly the wrong idea to try to come up with different categories, and then score the receivers in those categories, and then total the scores, and then present that total score as if it's in any way meaningful.

Even more than that, the tendency for the conscious mind to try to justify unconscious or pre-conscious beliefs means that the conscious mind frequently has to make things up. This is easily observed when talking to lay-people about their favorite WRs. There's this common belief that the best receivers are awesome at everything. For instance, back in the early 2000s, if you asked people to rate Terrell Owens in a series of categories, they'd be doing crazy things like giving him a 9 or 10 in "hands" and a 9 or 10 in "deep threat". Or they'd be giving Marvin Harrison a 10 in straight line speed and a 10 in after-the-catch skills. Obviously that is nonsense- we know that Owens has garbage hands and Harrison stepped out of bounds the second anyone came within 5 yards of him. That doesn't mean these guys weren't two of the three best receivers in the entire league- Owens' after-the-catch skills were surreal, and the two things Harrison was good at (getting open and catching the football) were actually kind of important skills for a wide receiver.

Looking at the chart, it seems clear that Cosell is blatantly guilty of that same fallacy. He's giving players ratings in skills based on how good he thinks that player is overall, not how good that player actually is in that particular skill. For the strong majority of players, there's no more than a 3-point spread between their best and their worst skill, and if you eliminate their high and low score there's only a 1-2 point spread between all their other scores. There were only three "10s" awarded outside of the top 6, and all of them were cases of hype vs. reality (Hines Ward got a 10 in "physicality" based on the overrated "Hines Ward is the best blocking WR of all time" myth, while Desean and Wallace got 10s in speed based on getting a lot of catches over 20 yards). Look, Desean and Wallace are both scary-fast (Desean ran a 4.35, Wallace ran a 4.33). Neither is faster than Jacoby Ford (4.28), though. Ford, though, got rated a 9- the same score as A.J. Green, who ran a freaking 4.48. Ford saw his rating downgraded a point because he's not subjectively viewed as an "elite" receiver. Likewise, Green got his ranking kicked up at least a notch (and likely 2 or more) because he's viewed as an "elite" prospect. Meanwhile, Fitzgerald ran a nearly identical 40 time (4.53), and yet Fitz got rated a 6 in speed- he's not getting the general "elite receiver" bump because he's developed his reputation as a possession guy. And the whole idea that Andre Johnson is a better red zone threat than Fitz despite 15 fewer TDs on 60 more catches *AND* being a superior deep threat is questionable.

It's clear that these numbers are just conjured from thin air to try to provide some sort of conscious, quantifiable support to impressions that are neither conscious nor quantifiable. The mere act of trying to reduce elegant unconscious calculations to clumsy conscious charts not only lessens their applicability, it also lessens their accuracy. I understand that in this era of informational overload, people can't just say "this is just what I think, and that will have to be good enough", because consumers demand some sort of "proof of expertise" before they'll listen to what you're saying. I just think it's ironic (and slightly tragic) that in our scramble to provide that "proof of expertise", we're frequently compromising the very expertise we're trying to prove. It might not be a satisfactory answer, but sometimes "that's just how I feel" is still the right answer.
Great post. I haven't seen you around much lately, but always love reading your thoughts.I also generally agree. I browsed the list but didn't put much stock into it. I did like his article though and put more weight into his actual top 5 that he feels are the best in the game. Not a surprise that AJ, Calvin and Fitz are on it. A bit surprising that Jennings and Holmes were on it and it caused me to look at those 2 guys in a slightly different light.

In fact, I follow Cosell on twitter and he had a long string of tweets a month or so ago lauding Holmes' ability. I was already looking to trade for a solid #2 WR in my dynasty league and that solidified my belief in Holmes and made me feel a bit more comfortable about overpaying for him a bit (overpaying if he's WR20, underpaying if he can become WR10). It just made me feel more secure that he isn't an overly situational dependent guy that could disappear if he ended up in the wrong offense, but that he's a legit talent at the position who should put up solid numbers no matter the team, QB, etc.

 
Great post SSOG- one thing to love about profootballfocus is that their scoring system works well with these observations. Basially a play is graded from -2 to 2 so they are basically taking that unconscious calculation and putting it on a scale. Ie did i like what I saw out of that player or not that play, without having to sum up the total of the components of that play.
It's a better method than Cosell's, to be sure, but I'm not sold on it as the answer, either. I think the whole "place a conscious, quantifiable value on your unconscious, unquantifiable reaction" idea is still weak (although it's much stronger than trying to break your pre-conscious reaction into its component parts). Mostly, though, I don't like the idea of a set scale. To use a golf analogy... imagine someone hits his first shot into the woods, his second shot into a bunker, and then sinks his third shot for a birdie. Now, imagine someone else goes with a more traditional Fairway -> Green -> Hole progression for birdie. The first guy's shots would be scored -1 (or -2), -1 (or -2), and 2, for a total ranging from 0 to -2. The second guy's shots would be scored 0 or 1, 0 or 1, and 0 or 1, for a total ranging from 0 to 3. The problem? Both sequences resulted in a birdie. By placing artificial caps on the values, you wind up with situations where brilliance isn't being scored proportionately.Really, I think this whole "objective scouting" fad is counterproductive. I think trying to quantify and verbalize pre-conscious and pre-verbal evaluations does nothing except weaken the accuracy and applicability of those evaluations. I'm not saying we shouldn't try to figure out why we feel the way we feel, I'm saying we should recognize that human beings are actually really bad at figuring out why they actually believe what they believe, why they actually think what they think. I'm advocating a movement to strip all words of certainty, pseudo-certainty, and faux certainty from our attempts to explain instinctual reactions. It's one thing for a scout to say "I don't like Darren McFadden as a prospect- something seems off about him. Maybe it's his top-heavy build." and another thing for the scout to say "Darren McFadden is too top-heavy to play in the NFL".

Of course, this does leave us with the problem that the pseudo-certainty cropped up to address in the first place- how do we separate genuine experts from random dudes off the street? Personally, I don't think this would be as much of a problem as it first seems. Without pseudo-experts appearing on the major media outlets and lending an aura of unassailability to their claims, I think most people would start thinking more for themselves instead of parroting whoever comes across as more authoritative. You'll have a lot more "wisdom of crowds" (which gets drowned out when the majority of the crowds is simply aping the expert du jour). Just be on the lookout for obvious signs of bias (homers of a particular team or fantasy players engaging in wishful thinking), and give more credence to the fact that opposing viewpoints are not without merit of their own.

Also, none of this is to say that objectivity is bad, undesirable, or something we shouldn't be striving towards. As many know, I've developed a reputation as a stat geek and, (ironically enough, given the argument I'm making), someone who doesn't actually watch the games. I think statistics are an incredibly valuable tool, not as a proxy to unconscious judgment, but as a supplement to it. I don't know about everyone else, but there are limiting factors playing on what I can do with fantasy football. Between family, employment, finances, and other interests, I don't have an unlimited amount of resources (or motivation) to hole up like Ron Jaworski watching film all day. Statistics (especially GOOD statistics) are no substitute for actual human judgment, but they are a great way to aggregate a lot of data that I wouldn't have time to sort through by hand, giving me a chance to make somewhat educated decisions where I'd otherwise be forced to rely on absolute shots in the dark. I'm also not saying we shouldn't try to add an objective quality to our scouting. With the Grape Jelly experiment I mentioned earlier, obviously the jelly experts had the language, training, and familiarity to accurately rate those jellies categorically and come up with a composite value. In the same way, professional-to-semi-professional scouts surely have a large enough toolbelt to apply objective descriptions to subjective evaluations, although they should be wary of overstating their case (like Cosell has clearly done).

I guess, in the end, what I'd really like is for us to find a place for uncertainty in all of our evaluations again. Or, more accurately, for us to acknowledge the place that uncertainty has always held in our evaluations. We shouldn't be making a move towards superficial (but false) certainty, we should be making a move to honest uncertainty.

 
SSOG, not to get the discussion too far off topic, but I noticed the link to dynasty rankings in your signature.

Since we're talking about WR rankings, I'm curious to try to understand some of your own rankings of WRs. Crabtree over Greg Jennings?

Demaryius Thomas over Mike Wallace, Santonio Holmes, Jeremy Maclin, etc?

Just curious how involved you are with those rankings and how you explain a few of them. Thanks.

 
It was an entertaining read, and that's about it. I especially liked this....

WR Comparison Chart

Here are Greg Cosell’s grades for the league’s RBs in a variety of categories discussed in this article. Keep in mind that a high score in certain categories does not necessarily correlate to being a great RB. For instance, a player such as Donald Driver grades out very highly, yet he’s clearly on the downside of his career. These grades are more for reference and do not necessarily present an accurate portrait of the WRs.
I'm doubting this guy did film study on all receivers listed and came to his number conclusions based on those logged hours. I'm guessing he fudged some or most. Not surprising he gives James Jones a 5 for "hands" even though he his catches per target numbers are really no worse than most WR's, including his teammate Greg Jennings who gets a 9 for "hands". As a Packer fan I've seen Jennings drop quite a few catchable balls in the past.

 
SSOG, not to get the discussion too far off topic, but I noticed the link to dynasty rankings in your signature. Since we're talking about WR rankings, I'm curious to try to understand some of your own rankings of WRs. Crabtree over Greg Jennings?Demaryius Thomas over Mike Wallace, Santonio Holmes, Jeremy Maclin, etc?Just curious how involved you are with those rankings and how you explain a few of them. Thanks.
I'm involved as can be- I make the rankings and submit them with no editorial oversight. With that said, take the rankings with a tablespoon of salt based on the "last updated" date. I'll have new ones out in the next week, although I'm always going to have some rankings that seem off. For instance, Crabtree is going to get a bit of a "knucklehead drop", but I'll still probably have him higher than 90% of other rankers. Demaryius will get hurt by his newest injury, but I'll still have him higher than most, too. I'm also significantly lower on Maclin and Jennings than most (though Jennings has grown on me). I think the Santonio criticism is a little funny, since most of last year I had to defend against people who were telling me I had him too high (a lot of people really revised their opinions of his talent level once he became a free agent).Why did I have the rankings that way in the first place? Well, it probably won't be a very satisfactory answer, but... "that's just how I feel". I like Crabtree's game. I like Demaryius's potential. Maclin has never impressed me. Neither has Jennings, although I'm coming around to him as a "sneaky good" rather than "freaky good" player. I could create up a bunch of manufactured reasons about stiff hips and lanky strides and "my ball mentality" and a bunch of other vague descriptions often conjured up when someone tries to verbalize support for a pre-verbal opinion... but that'd be awfully hypocritical of me, wouldn't it? ;)Edit: Also, going against the grain certainly has its disadvantages. I wrote an article last offseason explaining why I had Ocho ranked above Nicks. That was a pretty epic bust. I thought Hester was going to make a strong play for WR1 in Chicago, and it seems clear by now that he's not going to get anywhere close. I spent all season reminding everyone how Kenny Britt had not done anything... until Kenny Britt went for 200 yards. On the other hand, I also lectured everyone on the importance of upside in backup QBs and called Michael Vick the "ideal dynasty QB stash", declared halfway through 2009 that Darren McFadden was a "buy at all costs", and took a lot of flak for being "reactionary" and having Foster higher than most early in the season (though not nearly as high as F&L had him). That's just my methodology- I'd rather hit for power than for average.
 
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I guess, in the end, what I'd really like is for us to find a place for uncertainty in all of our evaluations again. Or, more accurately, for us to acknowledge the place that uncertainty has always held in our evaluations. We shouldn't be making a move towards superficial (but false) certainty, we should be making a move to honest uncertainty.
I agree wholeheartedly that having a level of honest uncertainty in one's system of ranking players would be all to the good. It's why I tend to tier guys in buckets and also have a separate category of "intangible risks" on my spreadsheets that I simply fill in with *, **, *** etc. For example, Vincent Jackson has *** dings on him (drinking problem, two DUI arrests (so possible suspension in near future), issues with authority) in my view. When I get to *** or more dings on a player, I "price in" the intangible risks by dropping them down my board by 5-10 spots. How do I determine the distance I drop? By the way I 'feel' or 'perceive' the severity of that particular player's problems. Donte Stallworth, for example, has the same number of dings, but as he's shown remorse/changed his ways, I don't drop him nearly as much as I do Jackson. Conversely, Michael Vick still hangs with his gangster crew and goes to parties arranged by his brother Marcus, so I DO price in his ***** to my rankings of Vick fairly substantially.

BTW, I do realize that *** could be construed as a quantitative rather than a qualitative tool, but it's really a mnemonic device to help me recall how many off-field worries any particular player brings to the table - but when I look at ***** Michael Vick it really translates to "criminally sadistic animal abuser, convicted felon on parole, known gambler, elevated injury risk, repeatedly rumored to use marijuana" when I glance past it on my QB ranking board.

 
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The methodology is flawed in my view. Each measure is accorded equal weight which is ridiculous. "toughness" is valued the same as speed, hands or route running?

I don't think so.
It's more than that, though. I think, by and large, talent evaluation is an unconscious process. There are so many variables at work that the conscious mind has a hard time honestly evaluating even a single play, let alone evaluating an entire body of work and then comparing that body of work to someone else's body of work. Instead, the brain handles all of those intricate calculations and comparisons and evaluations behind the curtain of our subconscious, and then prints out a result which our conscious mind then reads off. There's nothing wrong with this- many studies have demonstrated how much better the subconscious is than the conscious mind at making difficult evaluations. That's true from Joe Smith the plumber all the way up to the most elite NFL scouts and even the players themselves. For instance, ask Larry Fitzgerald after a play sometime why he juked one way instead of the other, and you'll likely get an answer like "it felt right", or "it seemed like the thing to do". His unconscious mind is an unbelievable machine, processing hundreds of data points and making complex (and correct!) calculations and blazing speed.The problem is that we humans have developed a distrust for our subconscious and pre-conscious mind. Maybe it stems back to all those math teachers who marked our answers wrong if we didn't show our work, because we now have a driving societal need to show our work. When arguing that Larry Fitzgerald is better than Andre Johnson (or vice versa), we can't just say "he just is". We have to provide concrete, conscious reasons. As a result, we give a long list of reasons why we think Fitz is better than AJ (or vice versa). Only that's not how our brain works- we don't come up with a list of reasons and then weigh those reasons and decide, we come up with a decision and then search for a list of reasons to confirm our decision. Not only are those reasons frequently incorrect (and highly susceptible to every cognitive bias known to man, beginning and ending with the grandaddy of them all: confirmation bias), but the mere act of looking for rational and quantifiable reasons REDUCES THE EFFECTIVENESS of our incredibly efficient pre-conscious decision-making process.

Again, there are numerous scientific studies demonstrating this. For one example, scientists had jelly experts rate 30 different brands of grape jelly. They then selected the best, the worst, the median, and the 1st and 3rd quartile jellies (call them 100%, 75%, 50%, 25%, and 0%). They gave these 5 jellies to the public and had them do a taste test and then rate the 5 jellies. The general public was pretty good at rating the jellies in this test- the best jelly always finished in the top 3, the worst jelly always finished in the bottom 3, etc. Scientists then repeated the experiment, but they asked the public to rationalize their choices before rating- to consider categories such as flavor, mouth-feel, aftertaste, etc. By asking the public to consider possible reasons, scientists destroyed their ability to evaluate the jellies. Suddenly people were rating the worst one as the best, and the best one as the worst, and the public ratings no longer correlated with the expert ratings. This is why it's exactly the wrong idea to try to come up with different categories, and then score the receivers in those categories, and then total the scores, and then present that total score as if it's in any way meaningful.

Even more than that, the tendency for the conscious mind to try to justify unconscious or pre-conscious beliefs means that the conscious mind frequently has to make things up. This is easily observed when talking to lay-people about their favorite WRs. There's this common belief that the best receivers are awesome at everything. For instance, back in the early 2000s, if you asked people to rate Terrell Owens in a series of categories, they'd be doing crazy things like giving him a 9 or 10 in "hands" and a 9 or 10 in "deep threat". Or they'd be giving Marvin Harrison a 10 in straight line speed and a 10 in after-the-catch skills. Obviously that is nonsense- we know that Owens has garbage hands and Harrison stepped out of bounds the second anyone came within 5 yards of him. That doesn't mean these guys weren't two of the three best receivers in the entire league- Owens' after-the-catch skills were surreal, and the two things Harrison was good at (getting open and catching the football) were actually kind of important skills for a wide receiver.

Looking at the chart, it seems clear that Cosell is blatantly guilty of that same fallacy. He's giving players ratings in skills based on how good he thinks that player is overall, not how good that player actually is in that particular skill. For the strong majority of players, there's no more than a 3-point spread between their best and their worst skill, and if you eliminate their high and low score there's only a 1-2 point spread between all their other scores. There were only three "10s" awarded outside of the top 6, and all of them were cases of hype vs. reality (Hines Ward got a 10 in "physicality" based on the overrated "Hines Ward is the best blocking WR of all time" myth, while Desean and Wallace got 10s in speed based on getting a lot of catches over 20 yards). Look, Desean and Wallace are both scary-fast (Desean ran a 4.35, Wallace ran a 4.33). Neither is faster than Jacoby Ford (4.28), though. Ford, though, got rated a 9- the same score as A.J. Green, who ran a freaking 4.48. Ford saw his rating downgraded a point because he's not subjectively viewed as an "elite" receiver. Likewise, Green got his ranking kicked up at least a notch (and likely 2 or more) because he's viewed as an "elite" prospect. Meanwhile, Fitzgerald ran a nearly identical 40 time (4.53), and yet Fitz got rated a 6 in speed- he's not getting the general "elite receiver" bump because he's developed his reputation as a possession guy. And the whole idea that Andre Johnson is a better red zone threat than Fitz despite 15 fewer TDs on 60 more catches *AND* being a superior deep threat is questionable.

It's clear that these numbers are just conjured from thin air to try to provide some sort of conscious, quantifiable support to impressions that are neither conscious nor quantifiable. The mere act of trying to reduce elegant unconscious calculations to clumsy conscious charts not only lessens their applicability, it also lessens their accuracy. I understand that in this era of informational overload, people can't just say "this is just what I think, and that will have to be good enough", because consumers demand some sort of "proof of expertise" before they'll listen to what you're saying. I just think it's ironic (and slightly tragic) that in our scramble to provide that "proof of expertise", we're frequently compromising the very expertise we're trying to prove. It might not be a satisfactory answer, but sometimes "that's just how I feel" is still the right answer.
Great write up SSOG. You pretty much laid out in logical analysis what I knew intuitively when I looked at those rankings. ;) Glad to see the elephant around--haven't seen you posting in a while.
 
Looking at the chart, it seems clear that Cosell is blatantly guilty of that same fallacy. He's giving players ratings in skills based on how good he thinks that player is overall, not how good that player actually is in that particular skill. For the strong majority of players, there's no more than a 3-point spread between their best and their worst skill, and if you eliminate their high and low score there's only a 1-2 point spread between all their other scores. There were only three "10s" awarded outside of the top 6, and all of them were cases of hype vs. reality (Hines Ward got a 10 in "physicality" based on the overrated "Hines Ward is the best blocking WR of all time" myth, while Desean and Wallace got 10s in speed based on getting a lot of catches over 20 yards). Look, Desean and Wallace are both scary-fast (Desean ran a 4.35, Wallace ran a 4.33). Neither is faster than Jacoby Ford (4.28), though. Ford, though, got rated a 9- the same score as A.J. Green, who ran a freaking 4.48. Ford saw his rating downgraded a point because he's not subjectively viewed as an "elite" receiver. Likewise, Green got his ranking kicked up at least a notch (and likely 2 or more) because he's viewed as an "elite" prospect. Meanwhile, Fitzgerald ran a nearly identical 40 time (4.53), and yet Fitz got rated a 6 in speed- he's not getting the general "elite receiver" bump because he's developed his reputation as a possession guy. And the whole idea that Andre Johnson is a better red zone threat than Fitz despite 15 fewer TDs on 60 more catches *AND* being a superior deep threat is questionable.It's clear that these numbers are just conjured from thin air to try to provide some sort of conscious, quantifiable support to impressions that are neither conscious nor quantifiable. The mere act of trying to reduce elegant unconscious calculations to clumsy conscious charts not only lessens their applicability, it also lessens their accuracy. I understand that in this era of informational overload, people can't just say "this is just what I think, and that will have to be good enough", because consumers demand some sort of "proof of expertise" before they'll listen to what you're saying. I just think it's ironic (and slightly tragic) that in our scramble to provide that "proof of expertise", we're frequently compromising the very expertise we're trying to prove. It might not be a satisfactory answer, but sometimes "that's just how I feel" is still the right answer.
You leave out the point that Cosell has access to something none of us do, coaches tape, and his job is to break it down all year long. So he has a much better feel of how teams go about defending particular WR, and how coaches use particular WR. I rate him as extremely, perhaps even uniquely insightful into different skillsets. But to each their own.
 
one juicy tidbit I found in the rankings is that AJ Green is listed ahead of Dez Bryant, and only two spots below Hakeem Nicks .If that rating holds up, he's going to be a very productive WR...

 
These kinds of lists are interesting, but I often wonder why these guys don't go back and retest their methodology.

I respect that he sought out to set up a framework, that's great. But it was an arbitrary framework (as most of these things are). So AFTER he did his analysis, why not take a look at the results and see if it matches reality? What I mean is, when you see DeSean Jackson many spots below David Gettis, why not scratch your head and say, "Hmmmm, something got lost in translation here, what criteria am I overrating or underrating that's skewing these results?"

It happens all the time. I've been guilty of it myself (from a fantasy perspective).

 
It was an entertaining read, and that's about it. I especially liked this....

WR Comparison Chart

Here are Greg Cosell's grades for the league's RBs in a variety of categories discussed in this article. Keep in mind that a high score in certain categories does not necessarily correlate to being a great RB. For instance, a player such as Donald Driver grades out very highly, yet he's clearly on the downside of his career. These grades are more for reference and do not necessarily present an accurate portrait of the WRs.
I'm doubting this guy did film study on all receivers listed and came to his number conclusions based on those logged hours. I'm guessing he fudged some or most. Not surprising he gives James Jones a 5 for "hands" even though he his catches per target numbers are really no worse than most WR's, including his teammate Greg Jennings who gets a 9 for "hands". As a Packer fan I've seen Jennings drop quite a few catchable balls in the past.
lol. Perhaps you might want to goggle G.C. and learn something before you post that

 
Looking at the chart, it seems clear that Cosell is blatantly guilty of that same fallacy. He's giving players ratings in skills based on how good he thinks that player is overall, not how good that player actually is in that particular skill. For the strong majority of players, there's no more than a 3-point spread between their best and their worst skill, and if you eliminate their high and low score there's only a 1-2 point spread between all their other scores. There were only three "10s" awarded outside of the top 6, and all of them were cases of hype vs. reality (Hines Ward got a 10 in "physicality" based on the overrated "Hines Ward is the best blocking WR of all time" myth, while Desean and Wallace got 10s in speed based on getting a lot of catches over 20 yards). Look, Desean and Wallace are both scary-fast (Desean ran a 4.35, Wallace ran a 4.33). Neither is faster than Jacoby Ford (4.28), though. Ford, though, got rated a 9- the same score as A.J. Green, who ran a freaking 4.48. Ford saw his rating downgraded a point because he's not subjectively viewed as an "elite" receiver. Likewise, Green got his ranking kicked up at least a notch (and likely 2 or more) because he's viewed as an "elite" prospect. Meanwhile, Fitzgerald ran a nearly identical 40 time (4.53), and yet Fitz got rated a 6 in speed- he's not getting the general "elite receiver" bump because he's developed his reputation as a possession guy. And the whole idea that Andre Johnson is a better red zone threat than Fitz despite 15 fewer TDs on 60 more catches *AND* being a superior deep threat is questionable.It's clear that these numbers are just conjured from thin air to try to provide some sort of conscious, quantifiable support to impressions that are neither conscious nor quantifiable. The mere act of trying to reduce elegant unconscious calculations to clumsy conscious charts not only lessens their applicability, it also lessens their accuracy. I understand that in this era of informational overload, people can't just say "this is just what I think, and that will have to be good enough", because consumers demand some sort of "proof of expertise" before they'll listen to what you're saying. I just think it's ironic (and slightly tragic) that in our scramble to provide that "proof of expertise", we're frequently compromising the very expertise we're trying to prove. It might not be a satisfactory answer, but sometimes "that's just how I feel" is still the right answer.
You leave out the point that Cosell has access to something none of us do, coaches tape, and his job is to break it down all year long. So he has a much better feel of how teams go about defending particular WR, and how coaches use particular WR. I rate him as extremely, perhaps even uniquely insightful into different skillsets. But to each their own.
I'm not questioning Cosell's credentials in the slightest. Guy watches a lot of film. Guy knows a lot more about scouting than I do. I'm not going to get into a pissing match with him on the subject of talent evaluation. If he believes that Santonio is an elite receiver and I believe Santonio is not, the odds are overwhelmingly in favor of Cosell being right.I'm simply talking about psychology, reasoning, and cognition- something I would argue I know a lot more about than Greg Cosell. Trying to give conscious reasons behind unconscious evaluations lowers the accuracy of those unconscious evaluations. When someone attempts to explain his conscious reasons for his unconscious beliefs, he almost certainly has the causal arrow backwards, as scientific studies have repeatedly demonstrated that reasons given to explain beliefs are overwhelmingly post hoc justifications. I can provide numerous scientific studies to back up either claim. Any claim that Jacoby Ford is slower than Desean Jackson and the same speed as A.J. Green, (who is, in turn, substantially faster than Larry Fitzgerald), runs contrary to objective, observable fact and therefore is almost certainly the result of motivated cognition. These are just the facts on the ground.This is not meant as a criticism of Greg Cosell, his credentials, or his abilities. This is strictly a methodological criticism; this is an attempt to evaluate the role that the scientifically verifiable facts concerning human psychology and cognitive bias play in our evaluation of football players. The ultimate goal is to cause a re-evaluation of our evaluation processes, an abandonment of the inefficient, and a movement towards greater efficiency and accuracy going forward.
 
It's a better method than Cosell's, to be sure, but I'm not sold on it as the answer, either. I think the whole "place a conscious, quantifiable value on your unconscious, unquantifiable reaction" idea is still weak (although it's much stronger than trying to break your pre-conscious reaction into its component parts). Mostly, though, I don't like the idea of a set scale. To use a golf analogy... imagine someone hits his first shot into the woods, his second shot into a bunker, and then sinks his third shot for a birdie. Now, imagine someone else goes with a more traditional Fairway -> Green -> Hole progression for birdie. The first guy's shots would be scored -1 (or -2), -1 (or -2), and 2, for a total ranging from 0 to -2. The second guy's shots would be scored 0 or 1, 0 or 1, and 0 or 1, for a total ranging from 0 to 3. The problem? Both sequences resulted in a birdie. By placing artificial caps on the values, you wind up with situations where brilliance isn't being scored proportionately.
Its a problem, but one that can be minimized. PFF's method has 9 options to score a play which means you can go -1,0,+2 for the birdie verses 0, .5,.5 for the birdie and you can get similar final scores for the pathway. The importance of an objective attempt at a standard though is obvious when 1 person can't watch all the plays of all the games and report them in a timely enough manner that allows you to act on the information. With 5-10 people grading independently you then have to evaluate the evaluators which is cumbersome. With a standard all you need to do is figure if the grader is competent and then can use their judgements in a reasonable manner.
 
Toughness is extremely important for an NFL WR. One of the biggest reasons so many promising fast rookies bust is they get to the NFL and struggle to get off the line. Every WR in the NFL is fast but speed isnt enough at this level. Even after a receiver releases from the line, DBs will still push and grab them. Then you have to hold onto the ball after getting drilled really hard. If you are still standing after your catch, toughness is what breaks tackles and gets those extra yards or sends a WR off to the races. Owens is one NFL's greatest WRs of all time and toughness was his greatest attribute. He didnt get all those TDs by having great hands or running great routes. Guys like Steve Smith and Rhoddy White also excel because of their toughness. David Boston was once an elite fantasy receiver. I wont even get into the importance of blocking. The importance of toughness is why I usually prefer the bigger prospects over the smaller ones. Steve Smith was so small I ignored him until he started punching bigger teammates and I noticed him constantly winning those important battles with the DBs at the line. You could tell he had that ferocity in him.

 
Player Tm Speed Lateral Agility Quicks Routes Hands Release off line Physicality Red Zone effectiveness Total Andre Johnson HOU 9 9 8 9 8 9 10 10 72 Calvin Johnson DET 9 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 71 Larry Fitzgerald ARI 6 7 7 10 10 9 9 9 67 Roddy White ATL 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 67 Reggie Wayne IND 7 7 7 10 9 9 9 8 66 Santonio Holmes NYJ 8 10 9 9 9 8 6 7 66 Greg Jennings GB 8 9 9 9 9 8 6 7 65
I like Jennings to have a breakout year even with Finley back.
 

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