Ray Rice, RB, Baltimore Ravens (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2012 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Ray Rice, RB, Baltimore Ravens

Player Page Link: Ray Rice Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[mphtrilogy]

don't think they will replace him on the goal yet..

1500 yards on the ground

500 in the air

15 tds on the ground

4 in the air

45 rec

 

[Jason Wood]

The Rice hold out is a concern, and I'm really beginning to question what the Ravens are up to. Ozzie Smith is a consummate pro obviously, but to leave both his QB and his RB hanging this offseason could bode ill for a team that already lost its best defender to a major injury and is in a division with two other teams more than capable of winning the division.

 

[xrayveggin]

I predict - Rice gets a deal similar to Marshawn Lynch, 4/31/16 guaranteed...

Limitations on Rice's performance last year:

1) Limited downfield threat at the WR position - Smith will come into his own and demand more over the top safety help.

2) Vonta Leach was new to the team in a short offseason, expect better FB play this year

3) Bryant McKinnie was new to the team, Rice and McKinnie should work better together this season

4) Rookie TEs were not a significant threat as blockers or receivers and were working on shortened offseason as well. Their blocking should improve, and their threat as receivers should pull defenders out of the box.

I think Rice sees the box open up on play action and draw plays. I expect Pierce to spell him a little less than Williams.

240 carries, 1350 yards, 10 TDs and 80 receptions, 720 yards, 6 tds.

 

[mquinnjr]

don't think they will replace him on the goal yet..1500 yards on the ground500 in the air15 tds on the ground4 in the air45 rec

Holy bejesus, 19 TD's? I know Rice is solid, and I've loved owning him and watching him week in and out the past few years. But that's a bit much, we're not talking LT in his prime here. He's the bellcow in this offense, and I think we need to see how the contract talk works out by next week, at that point if he's unsigned we need to see if he holds out or signs the franchise tender for a potential projection modification. I think if that's a factor it's huge for any projections for RR. I think signed/tendered on the FT with no holdout, I'd go 1270-10 on the ground, 66-620-3 in the air. Ray's in his prime and with a contract in order should be able to hit those numbers, validating a top 3 pick and getting you consistent week in-week out top tier RB production, especially in PPR. Ceiling is to exceed, be confident getting him in the top 3 in 2012 if the Ravens get the contract sorted out soon.

 

[Monsters of the Midway]

Durable, consistent, PPR monster, etc. The only question is will he continue to get the goalline carries. Seems he will, so another 1900-esque total yards and double digit TDs are a near certainty, making him a no brainer at the top of the draft.

I think Foster is a better play but even if true you could argue Rice is a better pick because you don't have early handcuff worries a la Ben Tate.

 

[Super King]

I predict - Rice gets a deal similar to Marshawn Lynch, 4/31/16 guaranteed...Limitations on Rice's performance last year:1) Limited downfield threat at the WR position - Smith will come into his own and demand more over the top safety help. 2) Vonta Leach was new to the team in a short offseason, expect better FB play this year3) Bryant McKinnie was new to the team, Rice and McKinnie should work better together this season4) Rookie TEs were not a significant threat as blockers or receivers and were working on shortened offseason as well. Their blocking should improve, and their threat as receivers should pull defenders out of the box.I think Rice sees the box open up on play action and draw plays. I expect Pierce to spell him a little less than Williams.240 carries, 1350 yards, 10 TDs and 80 receptions, 720 yards, 6 tds.

Only 240 carries? At 5.6 ypc?

 

[fightingillini]

What makes Rice a viable option at the #1 pick overall is his consistency. Last year, in a typical PPR league with some small bonuses for 100+ rushing or long TDs, Rice scored 19+ points in 14 of 16 games. Think about that for a second. With Rice, you can almost guarantee 19+ points on your RB1 line. That's a huge advantage over your competition, which will have their RB1 produce a few games with 12 or fewer points. Essentially you have at least a 5 point advantage over others RB1 unless their RB1 is Foster or McCoy. With the WR field deep after Calvin, and the QB field deep after Rodgers, Brady and Brees, having Rice on your team could easily lead you to a fantasy title. It's going to be hard for your opponents to make up the value that they give up by not having Rice.

You know Rice is going to carry the ball 270+ times and have 65+ receptions, and have at least 13 overall TDs. And he's durable. It's money in the bank. Rice along with Foster and McCoy give you a big advantage over your competition. And he's a delight to watch. If you get lucky enough to draft him, sit back, smile, and enjoy the ride!

280 car, 1285 yds, 12TD

70 rec, 620 yds, 3TD

 

[JPeso]

275, 1280, 10

70, 600, 2

 

[The Man With No Name]

300-1350-10 rushing

73-659-2 receiving

 

[Tchula]

For what it is worth: The Ravens have come to signing terms with Ray Rice. Did we expect anything else? Fantasy owners can now dance in circles and feel safe grabbing Rice of the boards in the top 3 spots. Read more at www.nfl.com

 

[Plorfu]

Ozzie Smith is a consummate pro

He must be doing backflips over this deal.

 

[Bigboy10182000]

Ozzie Smith is a consummate pro

He must be doing backflips over this deal.

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

No worries about workload the last few years and at rutgers?

Is Rice still an easy top 3 pick in a 2qb league or over calvin in a start 4wr league? I tend to think yes. I think the rb position drops off a cliff after foster, rice, shady, mathews, cj, mcfadden. Im trying to get two of these guys late 1st/early 2nd while others take qbs, gronk/graham, and calvin in the 1st and early 2nd.

 

[seabronc]

No worries about workload the last few years and at rutgers?Is Rice still an easy top 3 pick in a 2qb league or over calvin in a start 4wr league? I tend to think yes. I think the rb position drops off a cliff after foster, rice, shady, mathews, cj, mcfadden. Im trying to get two of these guys late 1st/early 2nd while others take qbs, gronk/graham, and calvin in the 1st and early 2nd.

I am surprised not to hear the workload concerns more present for Rice. With playoffs, 400+ touches three years running.