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Ray Rice running sub 4.4 in the 40 in speed camp? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter super sleeper
- Start date
Road Warriors
Footballguy
I've seen Charles listed from 190 to 210. I think he played at about 205 this past year at UT.
Chunky Soup
Footballguy
AP is way bigger than DMac.
Jedimaster21
Footballguy
switz
Footballguy
Chase Stuart said:There is a method to my madness.
That's a really useful set of data."the top 10 rushers of all time have a BMI of 29.7"
Interestingly Addai is very close to ideal (29.3), and Mendenhall and Addai have the exact same BMI.
Jonathon Stewart is a bit on the heavy side it seems.
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
Just to be clear...that's the top 10 rushers among RBs that entered the league since the merger. I don't have it in front of me, but I think the only switch would be Franco Harris for Jim Brown, which is pretty much a wash, anyway.It seems like the ideal BMI for modern RBs is at least 30. Tomlinson's a 31.7, and almost every top RB is in the 30s. ADP is the exception, of course. But he's incredibly fast and shifty, and will probably put on some weight soon, anyway. He's also arguably injury prone.Chase Stuart said:There is a method to my madness.
That's a really useful set of data.
"the top 10 rushers of all time have a BMI of 29.7"
Interestingly Addai is very close to ideal (29.3), and Mendenhall and Addai have the exact same BMI.
Jonathon Stewart is a bit on the heavy side it seems.
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switz
Footballguy
Interesting... on the top-50 list there are only 9 with a BMI of 31+, but EIGHT of them played within the last 5 years. Wow...
EBF
Footballguy
The paradigm is gradually shifting towards shorter, thicker runners.
I've often said function follows form. Think of the Olympics. Is it a coincidence that all of the elite shotputters are huge? Don't think so. The specific demands of the task require that body type.
The same general principle holds true for NFL runners. The position has specific demands that require a specific body type. You have to be quick and fast enough to evade, while being strong enough to break tackles, and durable enough to take 300-400 hits in a season.
A lot of people cite 40 times and act like RB is a speed position. It isn't. The RB is the offensive equivalent of the linebacker. Strength is hugely important, which is why most elite RBs are pretty heavy (215-230 pounds).
This is why I can look at a guy like Norwood and confidently say he'll never be an elite NFL starter. It just ain't gonna happen. It's against the laws of physics.
I've often said function follows form. Think of the Olympics. Is it a coincidence that all of the elite shotputters are huge? Don't think so. The specific demands of the task require that body type.
The same general principle holds true for NFL runners. The position has specific demands that require a specific body type. You have to be quick and fast enough to evade, while being strong enough to break tackles, and durable enough to take 300-400 hits in a season.
A lot of people cite 40 times and act like RB is a speed position. It isn't. The RB is the offensive equivalent of the linebacker. Strength is hugely important, which is why most elite RBs are pretty heavy (215-230 pounds).
This is why I can look at a guy like Norwood and confidently say he'll never be an elite NFL starter. It just ain't gonna happen. It's against the laws of physics.
Donnybrook
Footballguy
How's my math?
ADP = (703 * 217) / (73 * 73) = 28.6
Norwood = (703 *203) / (71 * 71) = 28.3
Eric Dickerson = 27.5
ADP = (703 * 217) / (73 * 73) = 28.6
Norwood = (703 *203) / (71 * 71) = 28.3
Eric Dickerson = 27.5
Great article Chase. Interestingly enough Justin Forsett at 5'8, 196 has a BMI of 29.7, which is right in tune with some of the other successful backs in the NFL. Very interesting.Chase Stuart said:
Bizkiteer
Footballguy
If your calculation is right, you just showed that one of the best RB's in the game had a BMI of 27.5. The problem with averages is that there are other numbers that make it not average. Thus, there is an exception to every rule. Also reading the article is showed that Marcus Allen was a 27, which last I recall...he was one pretty good NFL RB. Thanks for showing that you can't always take something at face value.
EBF
Footballguy
You have to be careful with this kind of thinking though. Anyone who has followed my posts over the years would probably know that I'm a big believer in using the broad jump and vertical jump to evaluate RB prospects. That's because almost every starting RB in the NFL has a vert of at least 35" and a BJ of roughly 9'10"-10'2" or greater (depends on height).Great article Chase. Interestingly enough Justin Forsett at 5'8, 196 has a BMI of 29.7, which is right in tune with some of the other successful backs in the NFL. Very interesting.Chase Stuart said:
I would argue that almost every RB who fails to meet these minimums will fail in the NFL. That's not the same thing as arguing that every RB who meets the minimums will succeed in the NFL. Meeting the minimums merely means the player has a chance to succeed, whereas failing to meet the minimums means he has almost no chance.
That's how I see BMI. A prospect must have a BMI near the ideal range in order to have a chance to succeed. But not every RB in the ideal range will succeed. So while I won't hesitate to downgrade McFadden for his abysmal body type, I wouldn't necessarily be quick to anoint Justin Forsett and Thomas Brown future studs just because they have a good body type.
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Jedimaster21
Footballguy
Jamal Charles a BMI of 25.1? That can't be accurate...I know he is slightly undersized, but that is really, really bad. I will be watching his height/weight measurements at the combine.
EBF
Footballguy
I think Chase used an outdated weight for Charles. I think he's at least 205, if not 210-215.
Donnybrook
Footballguy
It seems a lot of modern RBs with BMI above 30 can also be labelled injury prone. Ronnie Brown = (703 * 232) / (72 * 72) = 31.4Kevin Jones = (703 * 228) / (72 * 72) = 30.9 Cadillac Williams = (703 * 217) / (71 * 71) = 30.3Cedric Benson = (703 * 220) / (71 * 71) = 30 .7Deshaun Foster = (703 *222) / (72 * 72) = 30.1 But somehow Adrian Peterson and Jerious Norwood are the skinny guys that you singled out as being more susceptible to injury. I do belive that there is an ideal height/weight ratio for a RB but talent comes in all sizes and I wouldn't write someone off because he doesn't fit the mold.Chase Stuart said:
Focus on 1994-present. That both accounts for developments in training, as well as the impact of FA and the salary cap upon teams' overall performances.
redman
Footballguy
Assuming the best for this analysis, the BMI analysis on RB's doesn't guarantee anything, however a RB whose BMI falls within the preferred/ideal range at least has one less red flag than do other RB's. The lesson of AP may be (it's still very early) that you need to have an exceptional set of skills to overcome lack of body mass in the NFL. In other words, he's the proverbial exception that proves the rule.
JAA
Footballguy
Donovan McNabb might be 6'3
benson_will_lead_the_way
Footballguy
Try 6'1
Cookiemonster
Footballguy
I'm lost...... where is Rice?
JAA
Footballguy
5'8or is it 5'10?
benson_will_lead_the_way
Footballguy
lower....at 5'8 lol
Cookiemonster
Footballguy
benson_will_lead_the_way
Footballguy
I would like the Ray Rice guys to convince me why I should take him in a rookie draft? What makes him so good?
I see a smaller RB....that is going to take a pounding in the NFL....has a lot of carries on those legs already...and gets caught from behind by LB's in College.
I see a smaller RB....that is going to take a pounding in the NFL....has a lot of carries on those legs already...and gets caught from behind by LB's in College.
zadok
Footballguy
Stellar inside runner. Good vision and power. Low center of gravity. Great nose for the endzone. Short but not small - think of a more compact Emmit Smith - same size as Brian Westbrook and MJD. High number of carries is the only thing that concerns me at all.
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Jedimaster21
Footballguy
Ray Rice is a great back, with a very low center of gravity and tremendous instincts. He should be successful at the next level, but he has a few areas of concern. Despite his 4.44 at the combine, he doesn't have much long speed and he won't break any long runs. That will affect his YPC and Tds at the next level. In addition to the speed issue, he is listed at 5'8" and around 200 lbs, which is compact but very small. Will he be able to block effectively at that size and will he develop more as a receiver?
I currently have both Charles and Rice in the same tier, and I am trying to decide which is the better prospect. Rice has better instincts than almost any RB in this year's draft, and has amazing elusiveness. Charles has the "wow" factor with his speed, and is a tough runner despite his low BMI. He definitely has to put on some weight, but I do think his frame will allow him to put on a few pounds. Most likely, however, he will never have an ideal build for a RB. I also worry about Charles being able to understand blocking schemes, along with his tendency to fumble. I see both as solid prospects, and see Rice as the safer choice while Charles has a little more upside. Thoughts?
I currently have both Charles and Rice in the same tier, and I am trying to decide which is the better prospect. Rice has better instincts than almost any RB in this year's draft, and has amazing elusiveness. Charles has the "wow" factor with his speed, and is a tough runner despite his low BMI. He definitely has to put on some weight, but I do think his frame will allow him to put on a few pounds. Most likely, however, he will never have an ideal build for a RB. I also worry about Charles being able to understand blocking schemes, along with his tendency to fumble. I see both as solid prospects, and see Rice as the safer choice while Charles has a little more upside. Thoughts?
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RUSF18
Footballguy
If you watch Rice over a full game, instead of just highlights, you'll see that even on his unspectacular runs (or not even "good" runs) he does an amazing job of getting more than he should. It's not just about finding holes that aren't there, which he does do well, but because of his low center of gravity and excellent balance, he frequently will get an extra couple yards on pretty much all of his runs just due to how he falls to the ground. I can probably count on one hand the number of times he was driven backwards in his 3 years at Rutgers. Now you can definitely debate whether he'll be able to maintain this in the NFL when all the players are stronger, but my personal opinion is that he will. He's got amazing leg drive and I think it will translate to the pros despite his lack of obvious "bulk."
