Ray Rice (1 Viewer)

[meatwad1]

Sorry...but after what he showed against a pretty good (up until now) Denver rushing D, I am finding it tough to believe how this makes any sense.

N.E rush D has been so so....giving up about the league average in points to running backs. Somebody please explain this to me.

 

[JbizzleMan]

Especially after they just said he wasn't going to be pulled at the goal line...

 

[Joe Bryant]

Sure. Couple of things.

Rankings on Tuesday night are honestly pretty ridiculous. We do them because everyone wants them but there are a zillion things that must be factored that aren't known on Tuesday so always take these with a heavy grain of salt. I'd expect Rice to move up some through the week.

The RBs are pretty tight this week. Only a few fantasy points between 10 and 20.

McGahee looks to me like he'll still be a factor, even if not at the goal line.

New England has week off to game plan. Plus they've been very tough on rushing TDs allowed.

New England's pass D has been terrible. Something like 28th. I can see Baltimore flexing some passing game muscle here.

But yeah, I can also see Rice moving up some through the week. The question also becomes how much last week was what we'll see going forward or if we'll get back to the first few weeks.

J

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

The projections that are up right now are far from final.

That said, here's why last week's 133/2 outburst should be viewed skeptically.

Baltimore ran the ball a ridiculous 47 times out of 61 plays last week (not including sacks). That's just over 65% of the time (in a 14-point win). In their previous games this season, they ran the ball 48% (win), 37% (loss), 46% (win), and 42% (win).

Sixty-one total plays is about right. They are three-point dogs to the Patriots. Based on that, as well as the Patriots' relatively weak pass D, I'd expect them to run the ball about 41%–42% of the time. That gives them about 25 runs (and 36 passes).

Rice won't get all 25 of those runs, of course. He got about 57% of his team's runs last week (27 of 47), and he now has just under 55% of the team's runs this season. If he gets 14 of the team's 25 runs this week, that would be 56%, which seems about right as a first approximation.

On about 14 carries and (by similar reasoning) about 4 targets, he could do some damage; but it probably won't be anywhere near what he did with his 31 touches last week.

If the Ravens get ahead of the Patriots 17–0 midway through the second quarter like they did against the Broncos, and hold the lead the rest of the way, Rice could get well over 20 carries again. But I think the more realistic scenario has him getting touches more in line with what he got in weeks 1–4. Willis McGahee and LeRon McClain are still likely to collectively get at least half as many carries as Rice; and that limits Rice's prospects.

But read the bold at the top again. The projections may change throughout the week.

 

[packersfan]

Especially after they just said he wasn't going to be pulled at the goal line...

Harbaugh said Rice would get more chances at the goal line. He didn't say Rice would get them all. Sounds like McGahee will still get his goal-line chances but not as many if Rice continues to deliver when he gets a chance. I'm not sure this is Chris Johnson/LenDale White 2009 revisited if for no other reason than McGahee, in my opinion, is a much more talented RB than White. Plus, Rice has already had an injury issue so it would make sense to keep using McGahee in some fashion to keep from overworking Rice and putting him at risk for either re-injuring his knee or suffering another injury.

 

[meatwad1]

Thanks, those seem like valid explanations. Personally, I am expecting him to do well this week seeing that he has a few of his clunkers out of the way and he seems like he is fully healthy.

 

[thehornet]

I'm a pats guy and even i know rice is gonna gash the NE defense sunday.

 

[Da Guru]

Thanks, those seem like valid explanations. Personally, I am expecting him to do well this week seeing that he has a few of his clunkers out of the way and he seems like he is fully healthy.

Were you going to bench him because of a low ranking?? Or just a little offended because your top pick was ranked so low??

 

[Joe Bryant]

Thanks, those seem like valid explanations. Personally, I am expecting him to do well this week seeing that he has a few of his clunkers out of the way and he seems like he is fully healthy.

Were you going to bench him because of a low ranking?? Or just a little offended because your top pick was ranked so low??

Don't turn it into that.He thinks Rice will do well this week. Better than we do. So he asked. Maurile and I threw out a few things we see. Keep it on that track please.J

 

[Ladsud]

The projections that are up right now are far from final.

Rice won't get all 25 of those runs, of course. He got about 57% of his team's runs last week (27 of 47), and he now has just under 55% of the team's runs this season. If he gets 14 of the team's 25 runs this week, that would be 56%, which seems about right as a first approximation.

Are you taking into account he missed the 4th quarter of week 3 and didnt start week 4 and didnt really play until the 4th quarter. Running plays involving a RB

Week 1: 21 of 31 Rice

Week2: 16 of 20 Rice

Week 3: 15 of 23 to Rice....Injured at start of 4th quarter and didnt return

week 4: 8 of 24 to Rice....Injured and didnt start, didnt really play until 4th quarter

week 5: 27 of 42 to Rice

62% of all hand offs on the year have gone to Rice even though he has essentially missed a complete game to injury.

 

[nysportsfan]

.

 

[Liquid Tension]

The projections that are up right now are far from final.

That said, here's why last week's 133/2 outburst should be viewed skeptically.

Baltimore ran the ball a ridiculous 47 times out of 61 plays last week (not including sacks). That's just over 65% of the time (in a 14-point win). In their previous games this season, they ran the ball 48% (win), 37% (loss), 46% (win), and 42% (win).

Sixty-one total plays is about right. They are three-point dogs to the Patriots. Based on that, as well as the Patriots' relatively weak pass D, I'd expect them to run the ball about 41%–42% of the time. That gives them about 25 runs (and 36 passes).

Rice won't get all 25 of those runs, of course. He got about 57% of his team's runs last week (27 of 47), and he now has just under 55% of the team's runs this season. If he gets 14 of the team's 25 runs this week, that would be 56%, which seems about right as a first approximation.

On about 14 carries and (by similar reasoning) about 4 targets, he could do some damage; but it probably won't be anywhere near what he did with his 31 touches last week.

If the Ravens get ahead of the Patriots 17–0 midway through the second quarter like they did against the Broncos, and hold the lead the rest of the way, Rice could get well over 20 carries again. But I think the more realistic scenario has him getting touches more in line with what he got in weeks 1–4. Willis McGahee and LeRon McClain are still likely to collectively get at least half as many carries as Rice; and that limits Rice's prospects.

But read the bold at the top again. The projections may change throughout the week.

I have to challenge the logic string a little. yes, they ran the ball WAY more than normal so a reduction in carries makes sense. But rotation is about a guy getting tired. If they only run 25 times, I would expect Rice to get a larger % of those runs, closer to 20 than 14. And if they are throwing (which is expected), he will be a part of the passing game as well. 18-20 carries and 4-6 receptions is not unreasonable. I would expect around 22-26 touches.

 

[Novice2]

Early rankings don't count!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

Ladsud and Liquid Tension both make good points. I think 17-18 carries is probably a better projection than 14.

 

[Da Guru]

Thanks, those seem like valid explanations. Personally, I am expecting him to do well this week seeing that he has a few of his clunkers out of the way and he seems like he is fully healthy.

Were you going to bench him because of a low ranking?? Or just a little offended because your top pick was ranked so low??

Don't turn it into that.He thinks Rice will do well this week. Better than we do. So he asked. Maurile and I threw out a few things we see. Keep it on that track please.J

Did not mean anything other than I have Rice as well and he is my top RB. If FBGs rank him #1 or # 30 he is my starting RB. Every week when studs are ranked lower than their ADP should justify this comes up. If Rice is ranked 13 would it be better? The people who drafted Rice want him ranked in the top 8 every week because of his ADP.

 

[az_prof]

The projections that are up right now are far from final.

That said, here's why last week's 133/2 outburst should be viewed skeptically.

Baltimore ran the ball a ridiculous 47 times out of 61 plays last week (not including sacks). That's just over 65% of the time (in a 14-point win). In their previous games this season, they ran the ball 48% (win), 37% (loss), 46% (win), and 42% (win).

Sixty-one total plays is about right. They are three-point dogs to the Patriots. Based on that, as well as the Patriots' relatively weak pass D, I'd expect them to run the ball about 41%–42% of the time. That gives them about 25 runs (and 36 passes).

Rice won't get all 25 of those runs, of course. He got about 57% of his team's runs last week (27 of 47), and he now has just under 55% of the team's runs this season. If he gets 14 of the team's 25 runs this week, that would be 56%, which seems about right as a first approximation.

On about 14 carries and (by similar reasoning) about 4 targets, he could do some damage; but it probably won't be anywhere near what he did with his 31 touches last week.

If the Ravens get ahead of the Patriots 17–0 midway through the second quarter like they did against the Broncos, and hold the lead the rest of the way, Rice could get well over 20 carries again. But I think the more realistic scenario has him getting touches more in line with what he got in weeks 1–4. Willis McGahee and LeRon McClain are still likely to collectively get at least half as many carries as Rice; and that limits Rice's prospects.

But read the bold at the top again. The projections may change throughout the week.

Nice to see your reasoning here! This really sounds reasonable.

 

[meatwad1]

Thanks, those seem like valid explanations. Personally, I am expecting him to do well this week seeing that he has a few of his clunkers out of the way and he seems like he is fully healthy.

Were you going to bench him because of a low ranking?? Or just a little offended because your top pick was ranked so low??

No...I wasn't going to bench him. I don't blindly follow the rankings as, like any rankings, they are off sometimes. I was just looking for the line of thought behind the ranking. The arguments they give are valid considerations, but my line of thinking is that Baltimore looks at Rice as a special player and will use him as such. Hopefully I am not wrong...obviously, you never know about these things.

 

[plyka]

The projections that are up right now are far from final.

That said, here's why last week's 133/2 outburst should be viewed skeptically.

Baltimore ran the ball a ridiculous 47 times out of 61 plays last week (not including sacks). That's just over 65% of the time (in a 14-point win). In their previous games this season, they ran the ball 48% (win), 37% (loss), 46% (win), and 42% (win).

Sixty-one total plays is about right. They are three-point dogs to the Patriots. Based on that, as well as the Patriots' relatively weak pass D, I'd expect them to run the ball about 41%–42% of the time. That gives them about 25 runs (and 36 passes).

Rice won't get all 25 of those runs, of course. He got about 57% of his team's runs last week (27 of 47), and he now has just under 55% of the team's runs this season. If he gets 14 of the team's 25 runs this week, that would be 56%, which seems about right as a first approximation.

On about 14 carries and (by similar reasoning) about 4 targets, he could do some damage; but it probably won't be anywhere near what he did with his 31 touches last week.

If the Ravens get ahead of the Patriots 17–0 midway through the second quarter like they did against the Broncos, and hold the lead the rest of the way, Rice could get well over 20 carries again. But I think the more realistic scenario has him getting touches more in line with what he got in weeks 1–4. Willis McGahee and LeRon McClain are still likely to collectively get at least half as many carries as Rice; and that limits Rice's prospects.

But read the bold at the top again. The projections may change throughout the week.

I have to challenge the logic string a little. yes, they ran the ball WAY more than normal so a reduction in carries makes sense. But rotation is about a guy getting tired. If they only run 25 times, I would expect Rice to get a larger % of those runs, closer to 20 than 14. And if they are throwing (which is expected), he will be a part of the passing game as well. 18-20 carries and 4-6 receptions is not unreasonable. I would expect around 22-26 touches.

Also to assume that they will run less / pass more and yet have the same # of overall plays is a bit ridiculous. Teams run when they are ahead in order to run out the clock and shorten the game. If they pass more then the clock stops more often and the total number of plays should increase --on average of course.

 

[Tanner9919]

Thanks, those seem like valid explanations. Personally, I am expecting him to do well this week seeing that he has a few of his clunkers out of the way and he seems like he is fully healthy.

Were you going to bench him because of a low ranking?? Or just a little offended because your top pick was ranked so low??

Don't turn it into that.He thinks Rice will do well this week. Better than we do. So he asked. Maurile and I threw out a few things we see. Keep it on that track please.

J

Joetwo things stand out as the game approaches:

1. in 2009's regular season matchup between the two teams (week 4) Rice burned NE, rushing only 11 times but for 103, and added another 5 recs for 49 yards..

2. in the Wildcard playoff game against NE, Baltimore gashed the Patriots , rushing 52 times for 234 yards and 4 TDs..Rice had 22/159/2TD, while McGahee had 20/62/1td.McClain scored the 4th TD..

I think anyway you slice it, the signs point to a H-U-G-E game for Ray Rice..

Ne is ranked 20th in rush defense, allowing 25.5 att/gm, 449 yards allowed so far for an avg of 4.4 per carry, and they're giving up an avg of 112.2 rush yards/gm..they rank 26th in ppg allowed (24) - just slightly less ppg than the Raiders (26.8)..

the week off might be a good thing, but Ne isn't going to change overnight, they're dreadful defensively. The Vegas line is Pats -2.5,less than the usual 3pt home-field advantage..the over is 44.5..so Vegas oddsmakers think the game is a high scoring affair, but with the Raven's stout defense, I would imagine the Ravens will be doing much of the scoring while containing Brady and the Moss-less Pats..

they couldn't gameplan to stop Rice last season, and that was without Boldin at WR..

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

Also to assume that they will run less / pass more and yet have the same # of overall plays is a bit ridiculous. Teams run when they are ahead in order to run out the clock and shorten the game. If they pass more then the clock stops more often and the total number of plays should increase --on average of course.

Number of offensive plays actually isn't correlated very strongly at all with run-pass ratio (r^2 = 0.0084 in 2009). It's actually not correlated all that strongly with anything that I've found, other than unpredictable independent variables like kickoff/punt return TDs scored or allowed. But it is correlated more strongly with offensive points than with run-pass ratio (probably because both rely on an ability to sustain drives), and based on the spread & over/under, the Ravens are not expected to score an above-average number of points this week.

 

[The_Man]

The projections that are up right now are far from final.

That said, here's why last week's 133/2 outburst should be viewed skeptically.

Baltimore ran the ball a ridiculous 47 times out of 61 plays last week (not including sacks). That's just over 65% of the time (in a 14-point win). In their previous games this season, they ran the ball 48% (win), 37% (loss), 46% (win), and 42% (win).

Last January at NE, the Ravens ran the ball a ridiculous 52 times out of 62 plays.

 

[The Comedian]

whaddup

 

[SuperGreen]

here's to hoping mcgahee gets traded tomorrow!