RB Austin Ekeler, WAS (4 Viewers)

[Tau837]

He has missed 8 games over the past 2 seasons. Seems more reasonable to project him for 13-14 games than 16-17.

He averaged 6.4 rushing attempts per game last season. Projecting 125 rushing attempts seems high IMO. I'd probably project 90. At 4.5 ypc, that is 405 rushing yards.

He averaged 2.9 receptions per game last season. No reason to expect more. 40 receptions seems reasonable. At 9.0 ypr, that is 360 receving yards.

He had 6 RRTDs in 26 games over the past 2 seasons. I see no reason to project more than 3-5 this season.

Where does 765 YFS and 4 TDs rank? That's about what I would expect.

 

[FarFromHome]

I like math

23 carries a game for 1759 yds
80 receptions for 800 yds
9 tds

Solid rb1 in all formats

****Leaguemates lurking. Trying to increase value to move him. Shhhhhhh*****

 

[steelwind]

I know people are on the train of this player called Bill. Some are on the Rodriquez train. At the end of this season, in a ppr league, I honestly believe Ekeler has the most fantasy football points. Injuries aside obviously. My opinion of course.

Ekeler had 77 carries spread across roughly 12 games, he's not going to be asked to carry the load much but they will need to give him touches or he'll just look like he's out for a pass play

Assuming he can even stay healthy all 17 games
100-120 carries maybe
He'll need a lot of catches

The time to trade Ekeler is now, given his age and 2 concussions in 2024.

100% this. I'd take the under on Ekeler seeing 125 touches, unless a lot of guys got hurt around him. I also don't think the Robinson trade affects him at all.

I'm taking way over 125 touches.
"Touches = carries + receptions" right?
Even if you low end math out 9 carries + 3 receptions per game that's 204 touches overall.

125 carries if he can play 16 games
40-50 receptions if he can play the whole season
175 on the top end? 200 would be a lot

If I math this out.
2024 he averaged 4.8 per carry. I'll use 4.5 to normalize toward his career average.
2024 he averaged 11 yards per catch. I'll use 9 to normalize toward his career average.

So 125 carries + 50 receptions = 1013 total yards and 8 total TDs is a solid RB2.
8 total TDs cause he had 4 rushing and zero catching TDs in 2024 which is unusual so I expect progression there.

So yes I am touting Ekeler here.
But if I play devil's advocate, there is another RB on the Commanders that could right away take the BRob role.
No it's not JCM.
It's C. Rodriguez. He is only a few months older than JCM. Has been in the system. Has tackle breaking metrics. College and pro experience + pedigree.
I'm just not buying the JCM hype. Too much unknown and where is he getting the experience to know what to do at high leverage situations?
Commanders are a SB contender. If they were rebuilding I would be all over JCM.

 

[H8fulHuck]

I know people are on the train of this player called Bill. Some are on the Rodriquez train. At the end of this season, in a ppr league, I honestly believe Ekeler has the most fantasy football points. Injuries aside obviously. My opinion of course.

Ekeler had 77 carries spread across roughly 12 games, he's not going to be asked to carry the load much but they will need to give him touches or he'll just look like he's out for a pass play

Assuming he can even stay healthy all 17 games
100-120 carries maybe
He'll need a lot of catches

The time to trade Ekeler is now, given his age and 2 concussions in 2024.

100% this. I'd take the under on Ekeler seeing 125 touches, unless a lot of guys got hurt around him. I also don't think the Robinson trade affects him at all.

I'm taking way over 125 touches.
"Touches = carries + receptions" right?
Even if you low end math out 9 carries + 3 receptions per game that's 204 touches overall.

125 carries if he can play 16 games
40-50 receptions if he can play the whole season
175 on the top end? 200 would be a lot

If I math this out.
2024 he averaged 4.8 per carry. I'll use 4.5 to normalize toward his career average.
2024 he averaged 11 yards per catch. I'll use 9 to normalize toward his career average.

So 125 carries + 50 receptions = 1013 total yards and 8 total TDs is a solid RB2.
8 total TDs cause he had 4 rushing and zero catching TDs in 2024 which is unusual so I expect progression there.

So yes I am touting Ekeler here.
But if I play devil's advocate, there is another RB on the Commanders that could right away take the BRob role.
No it's not JCM.
It's C. Rodriguez. He is only a few months older than JCM. Has been in the system. Has tackle breaking metrics. College and pro experience + pedigree.
I'm just not buying the JCM hype. Too much unknown and where is he getting the experience to know what to do at high leverage situations?
Commanders are a SB contender. If they were rebuilding I would be all over JCM.

nice call. he's on my waiver wire watch list.

ol' bill is all the buzz right now and probably going way too high in drafts
rodriguez is more likely to get goal line carries
i do like ekeler to maintain if not slightly increase his workload vs last season
deebo is the mystery man in this abacus calculation game... don't be surprised to see him get multiple RB touches each game on top of WR 2 targets. won't know until we see it, but i've been packing those bags

 

[massraider]

At the price, worth seeing if he has one more year.

I doubt they are dying to run two kids out there every series. He may get a lot of work, especially early in season

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

At the price, worth seeing if he has one more year.

I doubt they are dying to run two kids out there every series. He may get a lot of work, especially early in season

Without TMc someone needs to catch the ball.

 

[ffmail4me]

At the price, worth seeing if he has one more year.

I doubt they are dying to run two kids out there every series. He may get a lot of work, especially early in season

Without TMc someone needs to catch the ball.

We know Terry is going to sign soon. Just a formality at this point

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

We know Terry is going to sign soon. Just a formality at this point

“We”’is doing some heavy lifting in that sentence.

 

[Pots]

I know everyone has rookie fever, but Austin looked good last year. Knows the system. On a good team. Great pass catching and blocking. Seems like he could have a great year especially if the rookie struggles early.

 

[FarFromHome]

Top of the depth chart on a high powered offense that loves the hurry up offense. Giddy up.

 

[ffmail4me]

Top of the depth chart on a high powered offense that loves the hurry up offense. Giddy up.

They are just gonna make Bill earn it. And he will after Sunday's game

 

[fatness]

Drafted Ekeler late on both my teams. I think he'll score more fantasy points than the other guys. But who knows?
I just want it to be Sunday.

 

[JoeSteeler]

Anyone rolling with him today? I am thinking about it oven Kupp and Odunze. Full PPR

 

[Deamon]

Damn that's his Achilles isn't it.

 

[The Kerminator]

Damn that's his Achilles isn't it.

Fraid so

 

[Deamon]

Becomes a UFA next spring. He's done in Washington for sure, wouldn't be surprised if he retires. Brutal for him.

 

[steelwind]

A true warrior who proved doubters wrong when he was a three down workhorse.
He wasn’t offering much in our FF landscape today. But this is a HUGE loss for the Commanders.

 

[ponchsox]

Becomes a UFA next spring. He's done in Washington for sure, wouldn't be surprised if he retires. Brutal for him.

Yeah, this may be his last game.

 

[Faust]

Ian Rapoport
#Commanders starting RB Austin Ekeler, who was carted to the locker room with a non-contact injury, was ruled out with an Achilles injury. A potentially significant injury.

https://x.com/rapsheet/status/1966340727496901099?s=61

 

[Terpman22]

Torn Achilles confirmed via all sources

 

[Smack Tripper]

Farewell to one of the fantasy greats

Is it fair to wonder why he was even out there down 3 scores with under 5 to go?

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

ESPN’s Adam Schefter reports that the Commanders believe Austin Ekeler tore his Achilles during Thursday’s Week 2 loss to the Commanders.
Ekeler will undergo imaging Friday to confirm whether there’s structural damage. The 30-year-old looked visibly upset after walking off following the injury, and it would be a surprise if his 2025 campaign isn’t over. Jacorey Croskey-Merritt will almost assuredly be the starting running back going forward, with Jeremy McNichols operating as his backup. This could also lead to more touches in the backfield from Deebo Samuel, as well, and it’s possible the Commanders will look at the trade market for a potential replacement.

 

[travdogg]

A true warrior who proved doubters wrong when he was a three down workhorse.
He wasn’t offering much in our FF landscape today. But this is a HUGE loss for the Commanders.

Hate to see it happen for him, but he'll offer a lot to the FF landscape as an analyst, because that job is absolutely waiting for him if he chooses to retire. NBC or ESPN will snap him up quick. Not to sound morbid, and I've long been a fan of Ekeler's, but if he was gonna get hurt bad like this, I'm glad it was Achilles and not concussion after last year.

To your latter point, I do wonder if Washington makes a play for a RB? Team with Super Bowl aspirations, down to just a journeyman, a 7th round rookie, and a practice squad guy, and they just cleared a bunch of cap space (over 10 million) by renegotiating Tunsil's deal this week. Breece Hall and Kenneth Walker are in contract years, also possible the Saints would be open to dealing Kamara? Or maybe something smaller like a Jerome Ford type?

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

A true warrior who proved doubters wrong when he was a three down workhorse.
He wasn’t offering much in our FF landscape today. But this is a HUGE loss for the Commanders.

Hate to see it happen for him, but he'll offer a lot to the FF landscape as an analyst, because that job is absolutely waiting for him if he chooses to retire. NBC or ESPN will snap him up quick. Not to sound morbid, and I've long been a fan of Ekeler's, but if he was gonna get hurt bad like this, I'm glad it was Achilles and not concussion after last year.

To your latter point, I do wonder if Washington makes a play for a RB? Team with Super Bowl aspirations, down to just a journeyman, a 7th round rookie, and a practice squad guy, and they just cleared a bunch of cap space (over 10 million) by renegotiating Tunsil's deal this week. Breece Hall and Kenneth Walker are in contract years, also possible the Saints would be open to dealing Kamara? Or maybe something smaller like a Jerome Ford type?

They have to get someone. There’s no way they move forward with only Bill, McNichols, & Rodriguez.

They should call SF & see if BRob is available. He knows the system.

 

[Deamon]

A true warrior who proved doubters wrong when he was a three down workhorse.
He wasn’t offering much in our FF landscape today. But this is a HUGE loss for the Commanders.

Hate to see it happen for him, but he'll offer a lot to the FF landscape as an analyst, because that job is absolutely waiting for him if he chooses to retire. NBC or ESPN will snap him up quick. Not to sound morbid, and I've long been a fan of Ekeler's, but if he was gonna get hurt bad like this, I'm glad it was Achilles and not concussion after last year.

To your latter point, I do wonder if Washington makes a play for a RB? Team with Super Bowl aspirations, down to just a journeyman, a 7th round rookie, and a practice squad guy, and they just cleared a bunch of cap space (over 10 million) by renegotiating Tunsil's deal this week. Breece Hall and Kenneth Walker are in contract years, also possible the Saints would be open to dealing Kamara? Or maybe something smaller like a Jerome Ford type?

Feels like there's a lot of potential RBs for them You brought up some good names.... Breece, Walker, and Kamara make the most sense. What about Kaleb Johnson if the Steelers aren't even wanting to play him? Tank would have been perfect but Philly obviously just got him. Conner and A. Jones are intriguing but I think both those teams want to keep both of their backs.

 

[Payne]

Honestly think Washington is going to regret trading Robinson.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

<sigh>

Fought for everything he had in the NFL. Much respect.

 

[karl.Racki]

Can this be a career ender??

 

[Banger]

Honestly think Washington is going to regret trading Robinson.

I'm sure they already do.

 

[travdogg]

Honestly think Washington is going to regret trading Robinson.

Honestly didn't really get it at the time even.

 

[Brunell4MVP]

Honestly think Washington is going to regret trading Robinson.

Honestly didn't really get it at the time even.

He wanted a new contract. He wasn't a fit for the system. Peters likes speed. So there were plenty of reasons. I can't imagine planning a RBBC with the hope Ekeler held up all year. He's been hurt like 3 straight seasons. That being said, I think they need to find another offensive weapon. Debo, Ertz, and McLaurin are not enough against better teams

 

[ffmail4me]

Can this be a career ender??

I fear it is. He's way up there, with lots of mileage on those tires too...and that's a very serious injury for a RB.

 

[Snotbubbles]

Honestly think Washington is going to regret trading Robinson.

Honestly didn't really get it at the time even.

He wanted a new contract. He wasn't a fit for the system. Peters likes speed. So there were plenty of reasons. I can't imagine planning a RBBC with the hope Ekeler held up all year. He's been hurt like 3 straight seasons. That being said, I think they need to find another offensive weapon. Debo, Ertz, and McLaurin are not enough against better teams

You got bigger fish to fry than that. The rookie RT is going to get Daniels killed.

 

[travdogg]

Honestly think Washington is going to regret trading Robinson.

Honestly didn't really get it at the time even.

He wanted a new contract. He wasn't a fit for the system. Peters likes speed. So there were plenty of reasons. I can't imagine planning a RBBC with the hope Ekeler held up all year. He's been hurt like 3 straight seasons. That being said, I think they need to find another offensive weapon. Debo, Ertz, and McLaurin are not enough against better teams

You got bigger fish to fry than that. The rookie RT is going to get Daniels killed.

Don't know about that, not too many Micah Parsons level guys on the schedule

 

[Catbird]

With receiving skills being the thing we (okay I) know least about Bill, That seems the RB receiving is the skill most critical in finding a replacement. No one (certainly no one cheap) is going to replace Ekeler for those skills. Someone like Montgomery with his receiving chops and all around excellence living in a secondary role and with some age on him might be an excellent fit at a less than astronomical cost? Unless Bill can manage the receiving role himself (a lot to ask as he learns the game and speed of play among other new kid skills) I think the receiving role is the huge piece of this offense where losing Ekeler means a whole strategic avenue of the offense and challenge to opposing defenses is lost.

 

[menobrown]

I feel like they got to get another RB and one who can play a passing down role. Was thinking about it last night and Peters has a little MO where he seems to like players who were on the 49'ers during his time with them and as well as older vets.

That got me thinking he might be interested in acquiring someone like Mostert cheap. Maybe Elijah Mitchell if he thinks he has anything left?

Those are bottom of the barrel players who are just above players you can find on the streets. Thinking of street level FA's someone like Blake Watson, who they could poach off Denver's practice squad, would interest them.

Maybe if he wants to shoot just a little higher he can pry away a Rachaad White or Sean Tucker from Tampa? Maybe if they can hold down the fort for a few weeks someone like Jerome Ford would make sense on notion Cleveland would likely be interested when Judkins likely suspension is over. Antonio Gibson returning to Washington maybe?

Not expecting anything major, like say a Ken Walker and the Jets are not trying to trade a RB so I'd like to just move past the Breece Hall convo.

 

[fatness]

To your latter point, I do wonder if Washington makes a play for a RB? Team with Super Bowl aspirations, down to just a journeyman, a 7th round rookie, and a practice squad guy, and they just cleared a bunch of cap space (over 10 million) by renegotiating Tunsil's deal this week. Breece Hall and Kenneth Walker are in contract years, also possible the Saints would be open to dealing Kamara? Or maybe something smaller like a Jerome Ford type?

They might do that (sign an RB) but they need offensive line help more than they need another RB.

 

[Todem]

Honestly think Washington is going to regret trading Robinson.

Did not understand the motivation for that trade at a position that has a high rate of injury.

 

[Todem]

Can this be a career ender??

I fear it is. He's way up there, with lots of mileage on those tires too...and that's a very serious injury for a RB.

Yeah might be a career.

He was a baller.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I feel like they got to get another RB and one who can play a passing down role. Was thinking about it last night and Peters has a little MO where he seems to like players who were on the 49'ers during his time with them and as well as older vets.

That got me thinking he might be interested in acquiring someone like Mostert cheap. Maybe Elijah Mitchell if he thinks he has anything left?

Those are bottom of the barrel players who are just above players you can find on the streets. Thinking of street level FA's someone like Blake Watson, who they could poach off Denver's practice squad, would interest them.

Maybe if he wants to shoot just a little higher he can pry away a Rachaad White or Sean Tucker from Tampa? Maybe if they can hold down the fort for a few weeks someone like Jerome Ford would make sense on notion Cleveland would likely be interested when Judkins likely suspension is over. Antonio Gibson returning to Washington maybe?

Not expecting anything major, like say a Ken Walker and the Jets are not trying to trade a RB so I'd like to just move past the Breece Hall convo.

It's a tricky spot because most of the guys that might make sense (Gainwell, Justice Hill, Rachaad White) happen to be on teams that see themselves as contenders and are less likely to give them up.

Maybe they look at bringing Antonio Gibson back.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Honestly think Washington is going to regret trading Robinson.

Honestly didn't really get it at the time even.

He wanted a new contract. He wasn't a fit for the system. Peters likes speed. So there were plenty of reasons. I can't imagine planning a RBBC with the hope Ekeler held up all year. He's been hurt like 3 straight seasons. That being said, I think they need to find another offensive weapon. Debo, Ertz, and McLaurin are not enough against better teams

You got bigger fish to fry than that. The rookie RT is going to get Daniels killed.

Him & the dude wearing #67

On that Ekeler carry that got blowed up behind the line, 67 was blocking air. Completely missed his assignment. He looked ridiculous on that play. Had Jo idea who his assignment was, and the defender had an open lane.

 

[Snotbubbles]

Honestly think Washington is going to regret trading Robinson.

Honestly didn't really get it at the time even.

He wanted a new contract. He wasn't a fit for the system. Peters likes speed. So there were plenty of reasons. I can't imagine planning a RBBC with the hope Ekeler held up all year. He's been hurt like 3 straight seasons. That being said, I think they need to find another offensive weapon. Debo, Ertz, and McLaurin are not enough against better teams

You got bigger fish to fry than that. The rookie RT is going to get Daniels killed.

Don't know about that, not too many Micah Parsons level guys on the schedule

Did you see his performance in the week 1 game against the Giants? He was bad in that game as well.

ETA: Next week he'll get Maxx Crosby. He'll get Khalil Mack. Montez Sweat. Chris Jones and Karlaftis. Aiden Hutchinson. Nick Bonnito. Jonathan Greenard. Nolan Smith Jr. Teams are going be hunting this guy.

 

[BespokeJort]

I feel like they got to get another RB and one who can play a passing down role. Was thinking about it last night and Peters has a little MO where he seems to like players who were on the 49'ers during his time with them and as well as older vets.

That got me thinking he might be interested in acquiring someone like Mostert cheap. Maybe Elijah Mitchell if he thinks he has anything left?

Those are bottom of the barrel players who are just above players you can find on the streets. Thinking of street level FA's someone like Blake Watson, who they could poach off Denver's practice squad, would interest them.

Maybe if he wants to shoot just a little higher he can pry away a Rachaad White or Sean Tucker from Tampa? Maybe if they can hold down the fort for a few weeks someone like Jerome Ford would make sense on notion Cleveland would likely be interested when Judkins likely suspension is over. Antonio Gibson returning to Washington maybe?

Not expecting anything major, like say a Ken Walker and the Jets are not trying to trade a RB so I'd like to just move past the Breece Hall convo.

It's a tricky spot because most of the guys that might make sense (Gainwell, Justice Hill, Rachaad White) happen to be on teams that see themselves as contenders and are less likely to give them up.

Maybe they look at bringing Antonio Gibson back.

Wishful Keaton Mitchell owner thinking probably, but justice hill could make a lot of sense if the ravens see the delta between the two as relatively small

 

[fatness]

Him & the dude wearing #67

On that Ekeler carry that got blowed up behind the line, 67 was blocking air. Completely missed his assignment. He looked ridiculous on that play. Had Jo idea who his assignment was, and the defender had an open lane.

Nick Allegretti, G.
He's not good.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

He's not good.

Midway through the play he’s standing straight up doing a looking behind him at Eke crumpled in a pile.