supersecretid
Footballguy
Whether due to free agency, or some other cause, who are current back-ups that you dynasty or keeper owners are targeting as potential starters for next season?
Thomas signed a new deal through 2014 in the off season. I don't see the Saints cutting him and as we all know running backs usually don't hold a ton of trade value. He's been effective when he's gotten the ball (5.0 ypc) . . . what leads you to believe he won't be in New Orleans next year?I believe Pierre Thomas will be gone.
To be honest, I was unaware he resigned a deal. I still believe that Ingram will have an expanded role. Peyton has been suuuuuper complimentary of the kid and I think that he isn't stuck in a McCarthy like mind state of pass first, pass second, pass third. We saw it with Ivory last year, he isn't afraid to run the ball.Thomas signed a new deal through 2014 in the off season. I don't see the Saints cutting him and as we all know running backs usually don't hold a ton of trade value. He's been effective when he's gotten the ball (5.0 ypc) . . . what leads you to believe he won't be in New Orleans next year?I believe Pierre Thomas will be gone.
LOLMcKnight = Jerome Harrison part IIJoe McKnight/Bilal Powell- Better RB than Greene and LT2 is getting old. I like McKnight more talent-wise than Powell.
Ryan Williams suffered a devasting injury, I doubt he will be relevant in 2012My spider senses are really curious about Ryan Williams. Might be a DWill and Jonathan Stewart situation in 2012. Beanie has proven a lot of doubters wrong but needs to finish the season strong.
Traditionally run the ball? this will be the fourth straight year where they'll be near the bottom with less than 400 runs by the RBs. Why will next year be different?Brandon Saine definitely is one that I am keeping an eye on.Grant is done and probably won't be back. After a decent playoff run last year, Starks hasn't shown much this year and didn't exactly seize the opportunity to put Grant in the rear view mirror. Despite the presence of Rodgers, this is a team that traditionally does like to run the ball - perhaps they're not running as much due to the absence of someone that can consistently move the chains. IMO, that opens the door to another guy, whether it be Saine or Green (whose injury puts him a step behind). This is also not a team that traditionally goes out and spends a lot of coin on RBs.
Ryan Grant had 312 carries in 2008 followed by 282 in 2009. The team was in the middle of the pack (pun unintentional) during those years, and that was with a mediocre RB. Since he got hurt in early 2010, they've struggled to run the ball. Of course, having Rodgers doesn't hurt.They may never become a true ball-control offense, but my sense is that McCarthy would like a bit more balance on offense.Traditionally run the ball? this will be the fourth straight year where they'll be near the bottom with less than 400 runs by the RBs. Why will next year be different?Brandon Saine definitely is one that I am keeping an eye on.Grant is done and probably won't be back. After a decent playoff run last year, Starks hasn't shown much this year and didn't exactly seize the opportunity to put Grant in the rear view mirror. Despite the presence of Rodgers, this is a team that traditionally does like to run the ball - perhaps they're not running as much due to the absence of someone that can consistently move the chains. IMO, that opens the door to another guy, whether it be Saine or Green (whose injury puts him a step behind). This is also not a team that traditionally goes out and spends a lot of coin on RBs.
Just a couple tips:1- rookies that come into the league often sign 4-year contracts. So don't expect to find any Hunters or Bilal Powells ready to be a FA just yet. 2- looking at individual player pages on rotoworld often helps, though even then they are not 100% accurate. For example, they still list Marshawn Lynch as being signed for 2012, but this year has been voided due to reaching milestones in 2011 and thus he is a FA.Is there a list of all the big name UFA's I can look at? I want to see which backup RB's will be either free agents themselves, or the RB starting ahead of them is a free agent. Strangely, I'm unable to find it just by Googling.The only ones that come to mind that fit this criteria are Michael Bush and Bernard Scott.
7/28/2011: Signed a one-year, $1.835 million contract.Scheduled to be a UFA. Could get some kind of tag, or re-signed. (I sure hope not.)What is Tolbert's status? Guy has looked good when he gets a chance to carry the load....chance he takes the Turner route and gets his own team or is he locked in or will be tagged by SD
Based on this info I think tolbert becomes the best chance of getting a full time starting gig - just has to avoid the tag....I can see SD not wanting to lose him for nothing but isnt it time to hand the reigns to Matthews? Perhaps they tag him and deal him for a 2nd or 3rd....what teams are looking for a full time RB in 2012 where he would be a good fit?7/28/2011: Signed a one-year, $1.835 million contract.Scheduled to be a UFA. Could get some kind of tag, or re-signed. (I sure hope not.)What is Tolbert's status? Guy has looked good when he gets a chance to carry the load....chance he takes the Turner route and gets his own team or is he locked in or will be tagged by SD
FanninI'm keeping an eye on Jeremiah Johnson in Denver. It feels like the RB1 job is up in the air this off-season so why not him?
Tolbert seems to be exactly the type of RB that is most valuable to his current team. I would be very very very surprised to see him sign somewhere that made him the lead back, even in a committee. I think if you own Tolbert, you should hope that he stays where he is--based on what value he has even with Matthews, and possible value if/when Matthews misses any games due to injury. I'd absolutely expect Tolbert to be back in SD for a 2.5-3M/year over 3-4 year offer.Based on this info I think tolbert becomes the best chance of getting a full time starting gig - just has to avoid the tag....I can see SD not wanting to lose him for nothing but isnt it time to hand the reigns to Matthews? Perhaps they tag him and deal him for a 2nd or 3rd....what teams are looking for a full time RB in 2012 where he would be a good fit?7/28/2011: Signed a one-year, $1.835 million contract.Scheduled to be a UFA. Could get some kind of tag, or re-signed. (I sure hope not.)What is Tolbert's status? Guy has looked good when he gets a chance to carry the load....chance he takes the Turner route and gets his own team or is he locked in or will be tagged by SD
Agreed - I see him like a Jason Snelling-type.Can certainly carry the load for a stretch if needed, but not dynamic enough that some other another team is going to break the bank for. Much more valuable to their current team in a timeshare/backup role.Tolbert seems to be exactly the type of RB that is most valuable to his current team. I would be very very very surprised to see him sign somewhere that made him the lead back, even in a committee. I think if you own Tolbert, you should hope that he stays where he is--based on what value he has even with Matthews, and possible value if/when Matthews misses any games due to injury. I'd absolutely expect Tolbert to be back in SD for a 2.5-3M/year over 3-4 year offer.Based on this info I think tolbert becomes the best chance of getting a full time starting gig - just has to avoid the tag....I can see SD not wanting to lose him for nothing but isnt it time to hand the reigns to Matthews? Perhaps they tag him and deal him for a 2nd or 3rd....what teams are looking for a full time RB in 2012 where he would be a good fit?7/28/2011: Signed a one-year, $1.835 million contract.Scheduled to be a UFA. Could get some kind of tag, or re-signed. (I sure hope not.)What is Tolbert's status? Guy has looked good when he gets a chance to carry the load....chance he takes the Turner route and gets his own team or is he locked in or will be tagged by SD
Guy has looked like he can carry the load when needed - with such a medicore crop of RBs you dont think he gets a better offer than that and a chance to be a RB1? I just dont see him wanting to share with Matthews who is not going anywhere....Agreed - I see him like a Jason Snelling-type.Can certainly carry the load for a stretch if needed, but not dynamic enough that some other another team is going to break the bank for. Much more valuable to their current team in a timeshare/backup role.Tolbert seems to be exactly the type of RB that is most valuable to his current team. I would be very very very surprised to see him sign somewhere that made him the lead back, even in a committee. I think if you own Tolbert, you should hope that he stays where he is--based on what value he has even with Matthews, and possible value if/when Matthews misses any games due to injury. I'd absolutely expect Tolbert to be back in SD for a 2.5-3M/year over 3-4 year offer.Based on this info I think tolbert becomes the best chance of getting a full time starting gig - just has to avoid the tag....I can see SD not wanting to lose him for nothing but isnt it time to hand the reigns to Matthews? Perhaps they tag him and deal him for a 2nd or 3rd....what teams are looking for a full time RB in 2012 where he would be a good fit?7/28/2011: Signed a one-year, $1.835 million contract.Scheduled to be a UFA. Could get some kind of tag, or re-signed. (I sure hope not.)What is Tolbert's status? Guy has looked good when he gets a chance to carry the load....chance he takes the Turner route and gets his own team or is he locked in or will be tagged by SD
I thought the same thing about Snelling last year, and he didn't get much interest. Comes down to how we value RBs in FF more than NFL teams do. Most teams would rather draft youth than spend a ton of money on a free agent RB - unless they are viewed as a supreme talent.Guy has looked like he can carry the load when needed - with such a medicore crop of RBs you dont think he gets a better offer than that and a chance to be a RB1? I just dont see him wanting to share with Matthews who is not going anywhere....Agreed - I see him like a Jason Snelling-type.Can certainly carry the load for a stretch if needed, but not dynamic enough that some other another team is going to break the bank for. Much more valuable to their current team in a timeshare/backup role.Tolbert seems to be exactly the type of RB that is most valuable to his current team. I would be very very very surprised to see him sign somewhere that made him the lead back, even in a committee. I think if you own Tolbert, you should hope that he stays where he is--based on what value he has even with Matthews, and possible value if/when Matthews misses any games due to injury. I'd absolutely expect Tolbert to be back in SD for a 2.5-3M/year over 3-4 year offer.Based on this info I think tolbert becomes the best chance of getting a full time starting gig - just has to avoid the tag....I can see SD not wanting to lose him for nothing but isnt it time to hand the reigns to Matthews? Perhaps they tag him and deal him for a 2nd or 3rd....what teams are looking for a full time RB in 2012 where he would be a good fit?7/28/2011: Signed a one-year, $1.835 million contract.Scheduled to be a UFA. Could get some kind of tag, or re-signed. (I sure hope not.)What is Tolbert's status? Guy has looked good when he gets a chance to carry the load....chance he takes the Turner route and gets his own team or is he locked in or will be tagged by SD
This is a great list, but realistically almost none of these guys have a chance of being relevant week 1 of 2012.Michael Bush is really the only one with a greater than 50% chance of being a starter next year. Personally, I'm hoping he goes to Cincy.Guys I think will have some relevance next year...ordered by most likely to have fantasy relevance.
Kendall Hunter- He's good and Gore gets injured and they need a new young guy. Probably already taken in most dynasty leagues.
Montario Hardesty- Was drafted to be a starter and Hillis is likely gone.
Rashad Jennings- Mojo will have had 330+ touches 3 seasons in a row by the end of the season. If you really think he can last much longer on an offense that doesn't look like it's going up...you're in for a rude awakening. Jennings was also IRed even though he had a small non-season ending injury. Deji Karim, DuJuan Harris, and Montell Owens suck.
Michael Bush- However, I think Raiders work hard to keep him since Run DMC and Taiwan Jones are injury prone.
Mike Tolbert- He won't be in SD any longer. Maybe take the Michael Turner route?
Shane Vereen- Best all-around RB on that roster and the most explosive.
Da'rel Scott- Jacobs likely gone due to his high salary and below average play. Bradshaw keeps getting injured and Ware isn't anything special. Scott seems like the new Bradshaw.
Ben Tate- If he improves his pass-blocking he could spell Foster more. Still don't expect much from him, but top handcuff since the Houston line is beastly. If they re-sign Chris Myers he'll definitely be the top handcuff.
Delone Carter- Indy will have Manning or Luck...either way they have an offense, which would allow Carter to get a lot of goal line touches.
Joe McKnight/Bilal Powell- Better RB than Greene and LT2 is getting old. I like McKnight more talent-wise than Powell.
Jacquizz Rodgers- I know a lot of people bring him up, but personally I don't like him as a full-time guy. At most he'll be a poor man's Sproles. I think Atlanta goes after an RB to complement him...maybe Tolbert?
Saine and Green- Saine is not an NFL starter and he will never be. Green depends on his recovery from injury.
Bernard Scott- I don't like him...but there's a chance.
Johnny White- Spiller sucks, I don't care about last week's game. Fred Jackson needs someone to spell him...however White is sloooooooooooooooow.
Jonathan Dwyer- Worth a look, but I wouldn't expect much.
Look out for Ryan Williams and Mikel LeShoure too.
I agree with this, but keep in mind that the head coach and the GM are likely gone this year. It is very possible that the new regime just has their eyes on another guy that they think will fit their new system better than Tolbert. I dunno. Just sayin'.Tolbert seems to be exactly the type of RB that is most valuable to his current team. I would be very very very surprised to see him sign somewhere that made him the lead back, even in a committee. I think if you own Tolbert, you should hope that he stays where he is--based on what value he has even with Matthews, and possible value if/when Matthews misses any games due to injury. I'd absolutely expect Tolbert to be back in SD for a 2.5-3M/year over 3-4 year offer.
I think tolbert is much better than Snelling - 2010 Tolbert had just under 1,000 yds and 11 TDs - right now he has 750 yds combined and 7 TDS so will likely finish close to 2010 - thats pretty good in P/T work. In his prime at 26 - not a ton of mileage on him - Probably wont take a ton of cash to get him - I would think he gets a chance somewhere.I thought the same thing about Snelling last year, and he didn't get much interest. Comes down to how we value RBs in FF more than NFL teams do. Most teams would rather draft youth than spend a ton of money on a free agent RB - unless they are viewed as a supreme talent.Guy has looked like he can carry the load when needed - with such a medicore crop of RBs you dont think he gets a better offer than that and a chance to be a RB1? I just dont see him wanting to share with Matthews who is not going anywhere....Agreed - I see him like a Jason Snelling-type.Can certainly carry the load for a stretch if needed, but not dynamic enough that some other another team is going to break the bank for. Much more valuable to their current team in a timeshare/backup role.Tolbert seems to be exactly the type of RB that is most valuable to his current team. I would be very very very surprised to see him sign somewhere that made him the lead back, even in a committee. I think if you own Tolbert, you should hope that he stays where he is--based on what value he has even with Matthews, and possible value if/when Matthews misses any games due to injury. I'd absolutely expect Tolbert to be back in SD for a 2.5-3M/year over 3-4 year offer.Based on this info I think tolbert becomes the best chance of getting a full time starting gig - just has to avoid the tag....I can see SD not wanting to lose him for nothing but isnt it time to hand the reigns to Matthews? Perhaps they tag him and deal him for a 2nd or 3rd....what teams are looking for a full time RB in 2012 where he would be a good fit?7/28/2011: Signed a one-year, $1.835 million contract.Scheduled to be a UFA. Could get some kind of tag, or re-signed. (I sure hope not.)What is Tolbert's status? Guy has looked good when he gets a chance to carry the load....chance he takes the Turner route and gets his own team or is he locked in or will be tagged by SD
Alfonso Smith ARI RFAStephens-Howling ARI RFAChester Taylor ARI UFAAntone Smith ATL RFAJason Snelling ATL UFAMatt Lawrence BAL RFARay Rice BAL UFATashard Choice BUF UFAKahlil Bell CHI RFAMatt Forte CHI UFACedric Benson CIN UFACedric Peerman CIN RFAChriss Pressley CIN RFAPeyton Hillis CLE UFALance Ball DEN ERFASpencer Larsen DEN UFAMaurice Morris DET UFAKevin Smith DET UFARyan Grant GBP UFAArian Foster HOU RFABrock Bolen JAX RFAThomas Jones KCC UFALe'Ron McClain KCC UFALex Hilliard MIA RFASteve Slaton MIA UFALorenzo Booker MIN UFAKevin Faulk NEP UFAB Green Ellis NEP UFAL Tomlinson NYJ UFAMichael Bush OAK UFARock Cartwright OAK UFAMarcell Reese OAK RFARonnie Brown PHI UFAOwen Schmitt PHI UFAMewelde Moore PIT UFAIsaac Redman PIT ERFAJacob Hester SDC UFAMike Tolbert SDC UFAJustin Forsett SEA UFAMarshawn Lynch SEA UFAMoran Norris SFO UFABrit Miller STL UFAJerious Norwood STL UFAC Williams STL UFAL Blount TBB ERFAKregg Lumpkin TBB RFAAhmad Hall TEN UFATim Hightower WAS UFA
i see Ivory as the most likely RB to have shot starting. it's just not going to be with the Saints. as much as i like the idea of pierre starting for another team, he's a great complement to ingram/sproles in that offense. ivory is limited - can't catch apparently - but could be a good role of the dice for another team.'Lavachebeadsman said:To be honest, I was unaware he resigned a deal. I still believe that Ingram will have an expanded role. Peyton has been suuuuuper complimentary of the kid and I think that he isn't stuck in a McCarthy like mind state of pass first, pass second, pass third. We saw it with Ivory last year, he isn't afraid to run the ball.'David Yudkin said:Thomas signed a new deal through 2014 in the off season. I don't see the Saints cutting him and as we all know running backs usually don't hold a ton of trade value. He's been effective when he's gotten the ball (5.0 ypc) . . . what leads you to believe he won't be in New Orleans next year?'Lavachebeadsman said:I believe Pierre Thomas will be gone.
Yeah, I went for the deep guys...seems like the best NEW fantasy RBs next year will be rookies.The problem with Michael Bush is I don't see him leaving the Raiders and therefore sharing time with Run DMC. The Raiders don't have any draft picks this year until the 5th or 6th round I believe so they won't be drafting a RB. And everyone and their mother knows that Run DMC will not last a full season and Taiwan Jones has shown nothing.'FF Ninja said:This is a great list, but realistically almost none of these guys have a chance of being relevant week 1 of 2012.
Michael Bush is really the only one with a greater than 50% chance of being a starter next year. Personally, I'm hoping he goes to Cincy.
Shane Vereen is next on the list, but he's got Ridley to contend with even if they don't bring back BJGE. I like his upside and his price will likely be right.
Hardesty, with Hillis likely gone, just might get a chance but he has sucked AND can't stay healthy, so I expect them to bring in a FA and/or draft a rookie.
Powell is a longshot, but just maybe he wins over some favor late this year or in training camp next year, but Greene has done just enough to hold onto the job this year. Would take some impressive play to unseat him.
The rest of those guys are all almost certainly destined for a best case scenario of RBBC, most likely on the lesser end. There are going to be quite a few decent free agents flying around as well as some impact rookies. Hillis and Bush will be the most interesting to see. Benson, Grant, and Tolbert will likely just hurt someone else's value by eating up time in a RBBC. Lynch is already in the process of signing with Seattle long term. Forte will get the fanchise tag.
2012 RB FAs
Not saying you're wrong, but NFL history is littered with late-blooming studs that "sucked" and couldn't stay healthy early in their career. Truth is, not being able to stay healthy has a very strong correlation to sucking and often a guy's inability to stay healthy was just random bad luck.'FF Ninja said:Hardesty, with Hillis likely gone, just might get a chance but he has sucked AND can't stay healthy, so I expect them to bring in a FA and/or draft a rookie.
If I recall correctly, Snelling was a free agent last season and could not find another suitor and wound up back with the Falcons.As far as RBs coming back from ACL injuries, Priest Holmes had ACL surgery on both his knees and Frank Gore blew his out twice and both of them seemed to do pretty well afterwards.I've been targetting Snelling, Bush, and Ryan Williams.Snelling is similar to Michael Turner I believe in that he is a big, bruising back that can catch.M. Bush has been displaying his talents for several years now. He needs to head for greener pastures and a bigger pay check.R. Williams is the anti-Beanie. Beanie seems to always be dinged and does decent when healthy. But his knee is always a concern and he doesn't have any shake. Williams, assuming his knee is able to hold up, can add some speed and agility.As far as Leshoure...I don't think he ever makes it back as more than a plodder in a committee. RB's that rely on their explosion don't tend to come back from an achilles tear. I'd rather have an RB coming off of a horrible knee injury than an achilles.
Leshoure had a torn Achilles and Ryan Williams had a ruptured patellar tendon.I've been targetting Snelling, Bush, and Ryan Williams.Snelling is similar to Michael Turner I believe in that he is a big, bruising back that can catch.M. Bush has been displaying his talents for several years now. He needs to head for greener pastures and a bigger pay check.R. Williams is the anti-Beanie. Beanie seems to always be dinged and does decent when healthy. But his knee is always a concern and he doesn't have any shake. Williams, assuming his knee is able to hold up, can add some speed and agility.As far as Leshoure...I don't think he ever makes it back as more than a plodder in a committee. RB's that rely on their explosion don't tend to come back from an achilles tear. I'd rather have an RB coming off of a horrible knee injury than an achilles.
I've seen people say this, but if Johnson were to show anything yet this season he'd have opportunity to be in a good role next season. Stranger things have happened.'Hoosier16 said:Fannin'soothsayer said:I'm keeping an eye on Jeremiah Johnson in Denver. It feels like the RB1 job is up in the air this off-season so why not him?
I think Benson signs another 1 year deal with Cincy'thriftyrocker said:I think the best place for high rookie picks or FA signings are CLE, NYJ, CIN, and TB.NE - BJGE is gone so Vereen/Ridley are main RBsNYJ - Greene is mediocre but so is everyone else they have, LT is goneBUF - same as this yearMIA - same as this yearCLE - Hillis is gone, Hardesty is always hurt, chance for a rookieCIN - Benson is gone, Scott is not seen as a starter, chance for a rookiePIT - same as this yearBAL - same as this yearDEN - McGahee stays, Moreno is gone, chance for Fannin/Johnson to be main backup on run heavy teamSD - chance for Brinkley to take part of Tolbert's role if Tolbert leavesKC - TJones is gone, Battle goes back to special teams, chance for thunder role (Chris Polk would be a good pick)OAK - MBush starts somewhere else, chance for Big Cel or Jones to have more of a roleJAX - Karim is cut, Jennings/Harris fill main backup roleIND - Brown day 1 starter, Addai is cut only if Peyton is traded, Carter 3rd stringHOU - same as this yearTEN - same as this yearPHI - Ronnie Brown not resigned, Lewis takes main backup roleNYG - Jacobs is gone, chance for Scott or rookie to take main backup roleWAS - Helu main starter, Torain is gone, Hightower back if healthy, some UDFA starts week 4DAL - same as this yearDET - mash unit, Best starts but in heavy committee with either Smith, Leshoure, or someone elseCHI - same as this year, Forte resigned, rookie RB pushes Barber for main backupMIN - same as this yearGB - Grant is gone, committee of Starks, Green, Saine, and probably others, could copy what NO did and take someone just because they canARI - same as this year, Williams comes back slowlySF - same as this year, Hunter takes more of a role but Gore still startsSEA - same as this year, rookie is main backupSTL - same as this year, rookie is main backupATL - same as this yearNO - same as this yearTB - all around back brought in to push BlountCAR - same as this year
No one will trade for Ivory.I wonder if NO will go into next year with the same four guys at RB, or if one of Ivory/Thomas is traded for a low round pick.
I don't see anything other than a RBBC in NE as long as BB is the head coach. So count me in the camp that is less enamored with Vereen or Ridley.I also think people are making a huge assumption that BJGE is not going to be on the Patriots next year. I don't see that as being a foregone conclusion by any stretch. It could easily be Green-Ellis, Ridley, Vereen, and Woodhead all over again . . . and we've seen how that's played out this year.I gotta say, it says a lot about Vareen's skill set that so many people are high on him despite the potential of a huge RBBC. I've been going back and forth between keeping him or Da'Rel Scott, and I think Im convinced that Vareen is worth at least a hold until the preseason to see what shakes out. Only my Big Blue colored glasses makes it difficult to cut Scott. Great list so far, keep it up.
So you'd hold onto Scott over Vareen?I don't see anything other than a RBBC in NE as long as BB is the head coach. So count me in the camp that is less enamored with Vereen or Ridley.I also think people are making a huge assumption that BJGE is not going to be on the Patriots next year. I don't see that as being a foregone conclusion by any stretch. It could easily be Green-Ellis, Ridley, Vereen, and Woodhead all over again . . . and we've seen how that's played out this year.I gotta say, it says a lot about Vareen's skill set that so many people are high on him despite the potential of a huge RBBC. I've been going back and forth between keeping him or Da'Rel Scott, and I think Im convinced that Vareen is worth at least a hold until the preseason to see what shakes out. Only my Big Blue colored glasses makes it difficult to cut Scott. Great list so far, keep it up.
I don't really love the situation that either one of them is in.So you'd hold onto Scott over Vareen?