Da Franchise
Footballguy
Did he really? Thats sick, hadn’t heard that. Has he made a pick for this year yet?
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RB Bijan Robinson, ATL (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
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Did he really? Thats sick, hadn’t heard that. Has he made a pick for this year yet?
NFL Network’s Peter Schrager Nails Preseason Super Bowl Pick for Fifth Consecutive Season
The NFL Network analyst has been incredibly accurate with his preseason Super Bowl picks over the last five seasons.
I don't think he's done his 2025 prediction yet.
And obviously none of this has anything do with fantasy, just was trying to make the point I don't think he's a doofus. And I'd just add don't listen to any fantasy experts opinion and I'm not really putting any stock on his "opinion" with regards to fantasy. But insider info is not an opinion, and he's very well connected and I think when he is saying stuff like he's saying with Bijan it's based more on info he's being told then anything, and that to me does matter.
Thought I would throw this in here since it's being discussed. I really like all his picks too.
Da Franchise
Footballguy
NFL Network’s Peter Schrager Nails Preseason Super Bowl Pick for Fifth Consecutive Season
The NFL Network analyst has been incredibly accurate with his preseason Super Bowl picks over the last five seasons.www.si.com
I don't think he's done his 2025 prediction yet.
And obviously none of this has anything do with fantasy, just was trying to make the point I don't think he's a doofus. And I'd just add don't listen to any fantasy experts opinion and I'm not really putting any stock on his "opinion" with regards to fantasy. But insider info is not an opinion, and he's very well connected and I think when he is saying stuff like he's saying with Bijan it's based more on info he's being told then anything, and that to me does matter.
I listened to the podcast he did with Zac Robinson awhile back. Concur with your takeaway about Bijan.
BIRDGANG52
Footballguy
You don't need me to tell you that the arrow is pointing straight up with this guy, he could end up being the consensus 1.01 next season.
I think I'd take him over Breece Hall even. But that's like choosing between two super models except one was already divorced (torn ACL).
I think I'd take him over Breece Hall even. But that's like choosing between two super models except one was already divorced (torn ACL).
That's what I'm talking about! He's doing a podcast with the OC. You can't tell me he did not get info from that relationship, or the one he has with Raheem, that makes him extra zesty on Bijan.NFL Network’s Peter Schrager Nails Preseason Super Bowl Pick for Fifth Consecutive Season
The NFL Network analyst has been incredibly accurate with his preseason Super Bowl picks over the last five seasons.
I don't think he's done his 2025 prediction yet.
And obviously none of this has anything do with fantasy, just was trying to make the point I don't think he's a doofus. And I'd just add don't listen to any fantasy experts opinion and I'm not really putting any stock on his "opinion" with regards to fantasy. But insider info is not an opinion, and he's very well connected and I think when he is saying stuff like he's saying with Bijan it's based more on info he's being told then anything, and that to me does matter.
I listened to the podcast he did with Zac Robinson awhile back. Concur with your takeaway about Bijan.
And this matters because we all know how talented Bijan with the major question mark of how liberally do they plan to sprinkle in Allgeier. Camp reports have had me thinking pretty liberally, why I had Breece just the smallest amount over him. I feel like now they might just be wisely wanting to keep Bijan fresh in camp and that Schrager was given into his usage is going to look more like CMC stuff.
I know there was a quote Robinson made last month about “certain points in the season we are going to be leaning on him” while discussing Allgeier that raised some concerns for folks about Bijan’s workload. I wouldn’t sweat that too much.That's what I'm talking about! He's doing a podcast with the OC. You can't tell me he did not get info from that relationship, or the one he has with Raheem, that makes him extra zesty on Bijan.NFL Network’s Peter Schrager Nails Preseason Super Bowl Pick for Fifth Consecutive Season
The NFL Network analyst has been incredibly accurate with his preseason Super Bowl picks over the last five seasons.
I don't think he's done his 2025 prediction yet.
And obviously none of this has anything do with fantasy, just was trying to make the point I don't think he's a doofus. And I'd just add don't listen to any fantasy experts opinion and I'm not really putting any stock on his "opinion" with regards to fantasy. But insider info is not an opinion, and he's very well connected and I think when he is saying stuff like he's saying with Bijan it's based more on info he's being told then anything, and that to me does matter.
I listened to the podcast he did with Zac Robinson awhile back. Concur with your takeaway about Bijan.
And this matters because we all know how talented Bijan with the major question mark of how liberally do they plan to sprinkle in Allgeier. Camp reports have had me thinking pretty liberally, why I had Breece just the smallest amount over him. I feel like now they might just be wisely wanting to keep Bijan fresh in camp and that Schrager was given into his usage is going to look more like CMC stuff.
“Certain points in the season” can mean when we’re up 17 with 10:00 to go in the 4th against the Panthers and we’re just running the clock out. No sense in having Bijan out there continuously running up the A-gap. And I’m not knocking Allgeier; that dude can clearly play, he’s already shown it. I made it a priority to ship a late 3rd to the Allgeier owner back in May in my main dynasty where I have Bijan.
But Bijan is truly a generational talent. He will be absolutely unleashed in this offense this year, and I just pray he stays healthy.
I do see where you are coming from.
Bijan was regarded as a generational player and then got plugged in behind one of the best lines in football. I get it. the only thing that kept him back was that there was a 1000 yard rusher on the roster from last year, and the coach insisted on splitting carries.
coach is gone, so the problem is solved right?
well, the RB in question is still sharing carries. so thats one strike. but maybe a minor one as I dont think the new coach will split the carries evenly. I do think Bijan will get a higher % of the snaps.
but the guy you are comparing him to ran on an absolutely terrible team. no legit starting QB once Farve went down. team couldnt really sustain drives with the pass game. and teams stacked the box to keep the run game under wraps. dude still gets 1000 yards while coming back from a major injury. his team now has a legit starting QB. I do think they throw more, but they will get a lot more first downs and the team likely will have games where he gets 4th quarter garbage time carries (which he didnt get before) Lots of upside here too.
I think if Atlanta finishes higher in the standings than the Jets, then Bijan will outperform Breece. but if that doesnt happen, the opposite happens.
make no mistake, I think both are gonna produce well. but its not as clear cut as you make it out to be. there are a lot of variables to consider.
I think the bad QB excuse goes for Bijan every bit as much as Hall, and I think Braelon Allen, could be every bit the threat Tyler Allgeier is.
I think Hall's receptions could drastically go down, like 30 or so fewer. I think Zach Wilson was a checkdown machine, we know that isn't Rodgers.
I don't think I'm making it sound clear cut at all, because it's not. I think they are in the same tier I just prefer Bijan. I think CMC (because of the calf) Bijan, Hall, Henry, Taylor, and maybe even Kyren are all in the same tier.
That's what I'm talking about! He's doing a podcast with the OC. You can't tell me he did not get info from that relationship, or the one he has with Raheem, that makes him extra zesty on Bijan.NFL Network’s Peter Schrager Nails Preseason Super Bowl Pick for Fifth Consecutive Season
The NFL Network analyst has been incredibly accurate with his preseason Super Bowl picks over the last five seasons.
I don't think he's done his 2025 prediction yet.
And obviously none of this has anything do with fantasy, just was trying to make the point I don't think he's a doofus. And I'd just add don't listen to any fantasy experts opinion and I'm not really putting any stock on his "opinion" with regards to fantasy. But insider info is not an opinion, and he's very well connected and I think when he is saying stuff like he's saying with Bijan it's based more on info he's being told then anything, and that to me does matter.
I listened to the podcast he did with Zac Robinson awhile back. Concur with your takeaway about Bijan.
And this matters because we all know how talented Bijan with the major question mark of how liberally do they plan to sprinkle in Allgeier. Camp reports have had me thinking pretty liberally, why I had Breece just the smallest amount over him. I feel like now they might just be wisely wanting to keep Bijan fresh in camp and that Schrager was given into his usage is going to look more like CMC stuff.
I think the guy is a blowhard hype machine who has made a career out of his over-the-top enthusiasm schtick. I think he makes things up, including intimations of being an "insider."
Does he know people? Sure. Does he get some nuggets here and there? Sure. Am I totally wrong about him? Likely so. But that's my impression of the guy.
So he picked the last 5 winners correct. Probably not that hard if you're sticking with the consensus and best story/hype.
1. Chiefs - because why not? And Schrager swings off of Mahomes.
2. Buccaneers - Brady going to Tampa and SB played in Tampa.
3. Rams - Stafford story, Rams all in, etc.
4. Chiefs - because why not? And Schrager swings off of Mahomes.
5. Chiefs - repeat?
I would put my money on him picking the Chiefs again this year. Is there any other interesting story/hype out there this year, other than a three-peat?
Disclaimer: no, I did not pick the last 5 SB winners.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
FWIW CMC is already working on the side, and reportedly the calf is a non-issue and was considered precautionary.
it is easy to pick the favourite and when the favourite wins you look good.That's what I'm talking about! He's doing a podcast with the OC. You can't tell me he did not get info from that relationship, or the one he has with Raheem, that makes him extra zesty on Bijan.NFL Network’s Peter Schrager Nails Preseason Super Bowl Pick for Fifth Consecutive Season
The NFL Network analyst has been incredibly accurate with his preseason Super Bowl picks over the last five seasons.
I don't think he's done his 2025 prediction yet.
And obviously none of this has anything do with fantasy, just was trying to make the point I don't think he's a doofus. And I'd just add don't listen to any fantasy experts opinion and I'm not really putting any stock on his "opinion" with regards to fantasy. But insider info is not an opinion, and he's very well connected and I think when he is saying stuff like he's saying with Bijan it's based more on info he's being told then anything, and that to me does matter.
I listened to the podcast he did with Zac Robinson awhile back. Concur with your takeaway about Bijan.
And this matters because we all know how talented Bijan with the major question mark of how liberally do they plan to sprinkle in Allgeier. Camp reports have had me thinking pretty liberally, why I had Breece just the smallest amount over him. I feel like now they might just be wisely wanting to keep Bijan fresh in camp and that Schrager was given into his usage is going to look more like CMC stuff.
I think the guy is a blowhard hype machine who has made a career out of his over-the-top enthusiasm schtick. I think he makes things up, including intimations of being an "insider."
Does he know people? Sure. Does he get some nuggets here and there? Sure. Am I totally wrong about him? Likely so. But that's my impression of the guy.
So he picked the last 5 winners correct. Probably not that hard if you're sticking with the consensus and best story/hype.
1. Chiefs - because why not? And Schrager swings off of Mahomes.
2. Buccaneers - Brady going to Tampa and SB played in Tampa.
3. Rams - Stafford story, Rams all in, etc.
4. Chiefs - because why not? And Schrager swings off of Mahomes.
5. Chiefs - repeat?
I would put my money on him picking the Chiefs again this year. Is there any other interesting story/hype out there this year, other than a three-peat?
Disclaimer: no, I did not pick the last 5 SB winners.
I get that but you also have to give him credit for not mucking it up too.
I am not saying hes great but hes good enough to not be sh!tty
Chaka
Footballguy
Nice.
Chaka
Footballguy
The only thing I would suggest as it relates to Breece is that people temper their expectations for receptions.
Over his first 11 seasons Rodgers averaged 42.6 targets to his lead RB.
The three seasons with Nathaniel Hackett as the OC (2019-2021) the average was 57.6
His last season in GB feels a bit like an aberration with Adam Stenavich as the OC, because Alan Lazard was his lead WR with two rookie WRs but Aaron Jones had 72 targets that season.
So 95 targets again to Hall seems far out of reach. Presuming Rodgers doesn't age out and turn into a Captain Checkdown type, which he has never been.
That is fair.
the reason I like him isnt due to receptions (although they are a nice bonus) I think his YPC gets a nice bump because teams can no longer stack the box for fear Rodgers will burn them and he gets more work due to actually being healthy all year long. He will still get some catches and I do predict some regression from last years receiving totals. in the end, he gets a smaller piece of the pie (% wise) but it is also a much, much larger pie as the offense will run a whole lot more plays just by means of being able to sustain drives. he will also get a lot more red zone opportunities.
Thats why I like him
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
unlikely to be 8-man stacked boxes either.
Starting to legit think that Schrager upped his ADP a tad.
I've done two drafts since his comment, both in FFPC. He went 2 in one of them and 3 in the other. Just to put it in perspective I'm 24 drafts into FFPC, going back to January, and these last two drafts are the only two he's cracked the top 3.
Looked at 5 main event draft boards from yesterday. He went 2, 3,4 and 5.
Overall in all FFPC formats his ADP moved up to 4, passed Breece in last few days in two of them.
None of this means he's the right choice in general over Breece or one of the highly attractive WR options. These are tough choices.
I've done two drafts since his comment, both in FFPC. He went 2 in one of them and 3 in the other. Just to put it in perspective I'm 24 drafts into FFPC, going back to January, and these last two drafts are the only two he's cracked the top 3.
Looked at 5 main event draft boards from yesterday. He went 2, 3,4 and 5.
Overall in all FFPC formats his ADP moved up to 4, passed Breece in last few days in two of them.
None of this means he's the right choice in general over Breece or one of the highly attractive WR options. These are tough choices.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I’m seeing a lot more hero RB in big contests. That said, in NFFC, it’s currently 1.04 Hall, 1.05 Bijan.
VikingFrog
Footballguy
I paired Bijan and Barkley on auction and it feels pretty good. I never go hero running back but it seemed to work today…. On paper.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Auction is the best place for this strategy, and I love it if you can pull it off.
Bijan+Barkley is gonna give you an extremely high floor most weeks. Assuming you have a good receiving corps too, you should be a favorite. Nice work.
RaidersAreOne
Footballguy
I'm entering year #2 in my first ever keeper league and have JT/Achane as my keepers. This being my first time doing this format and chatting with other owners last night, I sure quickly realized how slim the RB market is going to be. We can't keep players drafted in rounds 1 or two from last year, so CMC and Bijan are available, but the likes of Breece, JT, Kyren, Pacheco, etc are.
I have pick #6, am I crazy moving up to #3 and selecting Bijan there? I would be 100% set at RB and can spam WR like crazy when everyone else is fighting over the remiaining meh RBs. Or should I stick pat and select an elite WR at #6?
I have pick #6, am I crazy moving up to #3 and selecting Bijan there? I would be 100% set at RB and can spam WR like crazy when everyone else is fighting over the remiaining meh RBs. Or should I stick pat and select an elite WR at #6?
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
RaidersAreOne
Footballguy
I simply do not see that happening lol.
He was clearly just using the 16/14 numbers as an example, not a mathematical calculation extrapolated over an entire season. I sense some Bijan owners are starting to get worried.
Yeah, super terrified
Sounds like Allegeir is going to get almost the same, and can be drafted 10 rounds later.
Chaka
Footballguy
250 is Allegeir's absolute ceiling.
eighsse2
Footballguy
It literally said that the beat reporter is predicting 16 carries per game, and 14 carries per game. It's possible he intended for that to just be the proportion, but that would be a very weird way to state it.
My prediction? You’re not going to look as smart as you think you do three weeks into the season.
Same things were said last year. D'oh!
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I mean, those are the ones I listen to the most.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Exactly.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I’d take Hall over Bijan regardless.
Yes, and even being as under-utilized and mismanaged as he was, he still finished as the RB9. D’oh!
Your league mates thank you
EBF
Footballguy
He came into the league with generational "next Peteterson" type of hype and then absolutely did not justify it last year with just good numbers. 4.6 YPC is very solid, but a long run of 38 yards on 214 carries does not reflect the special ability he was alleged to possess. I felt in the scouting process that he was much closer to Zeke or Taylor than Peterson or Tomlinson, which is still really good. It's just not the "wow" type of guy he was advertised to be.
Now we go into year 2 and he's somehow ranked as RB3 in redraft formats. It's not quite failing upwards because his rookie year was more good than bad, but I can hardly remember a back being valued so highly for achieving so little. With all that being said, I think I follow the rationale. His efficiency numbers were strong last year and the Falcons should be much improved. I don't think Bijan is special, but I think he's very good. There's strong breakout potential here.
I like his chances to have a top 5-10 RB season. On the other hand, there's minimal upside when he's being drafted near his ceiling. I would've been happy to take him in the 2nd round of my redraft league. He went in the top 5. You really NEED a breakout season if you take him at ADP because anything less than that will result in a negative return on what you spent to get him.
cantstop1999
Footballguy
Offensive coordinator Zac Robinson said Tuesday that Allgeier "certainly is going to have a big role" again, Josh Kendall of The Athletic reports.
It's not what Bijan Robinson drafters want to hear, following a rookie season in which the 2023 eighth overall pick got only 28 more carries (214 to 186) than his backfield mate. Allgeier wasn't as efficient as he had been during his own rookie season the year prior, dropping from 4.9 yards per carry in 2022 to 3.7 YPC in 2023, but it sounds like the new coaching staff in Atlanta nonetheless views him as a big part of their plan on offense. While the workload figures to shift more in Robinson's favor this year, it might not be quite to the extent people are hoping for when they use a first-round fantasy pick on the 22-year-old.
Thoughts ?
It's not what Bijan Robinson drafters want to hear, following a rookie season in which the 2023 eighth overall pick got only 28 more carries (214 to 186) than his backfield mate. Allgeier wasn't as efficient as he had been during his own rookie season the year prior, dropping from 4.9 yards per carry in 2022 to 3.7 YPC in 2023, but it sounds like the new coaching staff in Atlanta nonetheless views him as a big part of their plan on offense. While the workload figures to shift more in Robinson's favor this year, it might not be quite to the extent people are hoping for when they use a first-round fantasy pick on the 22-year-old.
Thoughts ?
eighsse2
Footballguy
Hopeful thought: Coachspeak. 5 touches per game is a big role in coachspeak.
I think Taylor is in the conversation with Hall and Bijan.
EBF
Footballguy
I had a mid 1st. My short list was Bijan, Taylor, and Barkley. Would've been happy to take any of them with a mid 2nd. Mid 1st felt too high, so I went WR. If the value isn't there at RB early then you can always come back to it later. Ended up with Jacobs, Walker, and Swift later in the draft.
Those are names I like this year a little deeper in the draft.
The value at RB this year looks to be in the lower tiers and with some of the comatose sleepers.
