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RB Bijan Robinson, ATL (2 Viewers)

Over hyped or not, he’s the clear cut prize in this draft. I can understand people that would take the windfall if they have the pick, but I can see people swinging for the fences to get the pick. Landing spot will make things even clearer but the talent is there.
 
Breece’s athleticism was 99%, just as a frame of reference. They called him a select member of the “99 Club.”

Robinson has “good” athleticism for a pro back of his size. Breeze’s rating was “elite”, like the modeling agency.
 
Ilov80s said:
zed2283 said:
For anyone who didn't watch, that 4.46 was after stumbling slightly at the start and drifting from the center line a couple of times.
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4.46 is a good time. Zeke was 4.47. I know he's sluggish now but Zeke was so damn explosive his first few years in the league. I think most people who watched the tape knew that Bijan didn't have 4.3 level speed.
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Yes, the time is not really an issue. It’s far from elite, but it’s surely fast enough that it doesn’t take anything away from him (imo).
 
Ilov80s said:
zed2283 said:
For anyone who didn't watch, that 4.46 was after stumbling slightly at the start and drifting from the center line a couple of times.
Click to expand...
4.46 is a good time. Zeke was 4.47. I know he's sluggish now but Zeke was so damn explosive his first few years in the league. I think most people who watched the tape knew that Bijan didn't have 4.3 level speed.
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Anything under 4.5 combined with Bijan’s other traits is just a massive win.

I would draft him if he ran a 4.7 - he’s that good at everything else.

4.4x is respectable.
 
rockaction said:
I want into that 99 Club, BTW. 99 Problems and a Breece ain’t one
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In some ways I believe Bijan is better than Hall.

Hall is faster. Well, was - hopefully will be again.

Bijan has traits that Hall doesn’t. I’m not sure about all this 99 club stuff, but I’d rather have Robinson. And I love having Hall in one league.
 
zed2283 said:
For anyone who didn't watch, that 4.46 was after stumbling slightly at the start and drifting from the center line a couple of times.
Click to expand...

Saw the replay last night and his second run was much cleaner but clocked 4.47.

Anyway, 4.46 is plenty fast for a player of his status.
 
zed2283 said:
Would you trade the 1.1 for Breece?
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If not for Breece's injury it wouldn't be crazy, but I expect most would not.

Breece is the better athlete and has proven himself at the NFL level - not that I expect that Robinson will not be able to do the same. Also right now, we don't know Bijan's landing spot. While unlikely, what if he goes to a team like Seattle or San Diego, where he'll be competing with solid pros for snaps?
 
Dr. Octopus said:
zed2283 said:
Would you trade the 1.1 for Breece?
Click to expand...
If not for Breece's injury it wouldn't be crazy, but I expect most would not.

Breece is the better athlete and has proven himself at the NFL level - not that I expect that Robinson will not be able to do the same. Also right now, we don't know Bijan's landing spot. While unlikely, what if he goes to a team like Seattle or San Diego, where he'll be competing with solid pros for snaps?
Click to expand...
Seattle would be bad. Mostly for walker but for both.
San Diego would be bad for one year.
I think I go Bijan over Breece no matter the landing spot. Would I before Breeces injury? Maybe
 
Dr. Octopus said:
zed2283 said:
Would you trade the 1.1 for Breece?
Click to expand...
If not for Breece's injury it wouldn't be crazy, but I expect most would not.

Breece is the better athlete and has proven himself at the NFL level - not that I expect that Robinson will not be able to do the same. Also right now, we don't know Bijan's landing spot. While unlikely, what if he goes to a team like Seattle or San Diego, where he'll be competing with solid pros for snaps?
Click to expand...
I think in some cases you might be able to get Breece and 24 1st from some owners for 1.01 (maybe add a small sweetener if needed). And if that owner took Breece at 1.01 in 2022 then there a solid chance that pick in 2024 is early. Something I may explore with my 1.01. Thoughts?
 
In a DEVY draft two years ago, I had Robinson and Hall as my top two players. Hall went ahead of Robinson at that time, leaving me Robinson. They were viewed as similarly-ranked players. Both excellent prospects. This was following Bijan’s freshman season.

I get the sense that some Bijan truthers take offense to the two backs being compared, but this is not a knock on Bijan. It is more of an endorsement of Breece Hall’s talent.

Let’s not pretend, however, that RB success is nothing more than workout numbers. Hall is a very talented runner, but, to my eyes, Bijan is the better prospect, and we will see him deservedly drafted higher than Hall.
 
BigAl21 said:
Dr. Octopus said:
zed2283 said:
Would you trade the 1.1 for Breece?
Click to expand...
If not for Breece's injury it wouldn't be crazy, but I expect most would not.

Breece is the better athlete and has proven himself at the NFL level - not that I expect that Robinson will not be able to do the same. Also right now, we don't know Bijan's landing spot. While unlikely, what if he goes to a team like Seattle or San Diego, where he'll be competing with solid pros for snaps?
Click to expand...
I think in some cases you might be able to get Breece and 24 1st from some owners for 1.01 (maybe add a small sweetener if needed). And if that owner took Breece at 1.01 in 2022 then there a solid chance that pick in 2024 is early. Something I may explore with my 1.01. Thoughts?
Click to expand...
I don’t think many Breece hall owners would pay that. I am one, and I certainly would not pay that.
 
socrates said:
In a DEVY draft two years ago, I had Robinson and Hall as my top two players. Hall went ahead of Robinson at that time, leaving me Robinson. They were viewed as similarly-ranked players. Both excellent prospects. This was following Bijan’s freshman season.
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You're bringing back memories. In our dynasty startup (with rookies/devys included) in July 2021 I traded up in the 8th round to get Bijan after the first devy went off the board (Spencer Rattler). I traded in front of a guy that I thought wanted him and I was right and he was pissed. Unfortunately, in the next round I wanted to grab the best 2022 RB next and was really torn between Breece and Spiller and I chose poorly and the guy that I jumped for Bijan got Breece a few picks later instead. :kicksrock:
 
He was super impressive in the Combine drills. Everything he did was so smooth and just different than everyone else on the field, dude is special. Built in a lab kind of player.
 
Let's try and unpack how high Bijan will be drafted. We know two seemingly contrary truths: Robinson is universally considered an elite level talent, in the same tier as Barkley and Zeke. Barkley went 1.02, Zeke went 1.04. Since that time, the consensus opinion is that RBs do not merit that high a selection. With these parameters in mind, here goes:

1.01- Chicago: Be it the Bears pick or a trade is made, it looks like an elite defender or QB. 0% Robinson here.

1.02 - Houston: Most likely QB, but a slight chance of an elite defender. 0% Robinson here.

1.03- Cardinals- While I don't think this is likely, given the myriad needs that the Cardinals have, there is recent precedent (see above) that Robinson lands in Arizona. Far and away, the most likely outcome here is an Edge or a trade in spot looking to get in front of the Colts for a QB. This is the first position that I see a non-zero chance that Bijan gets drafted. The tools are there, Connor is a decent runner but certainly wouldn't foreclose the selection of Robinson in this slot. I'll assign a 15% chance that Robinson goes at 1.03.

1.04- Colts- Feel like the Colts are the most likely team to move in the top 10- either they go up to 1.01 to get their preferred QB, or, if they don't go up and two teams leapfrog them to grab Young/Stroud at 1.01, Houston takes the other QB at 1.02, then get leapfrogged at 1.03 (Feel like Carolina or Atlanta will be a strong player to jump into 1.03 to take a QB). At this point, given that Anthony Richardson crushed the combine, don't be surprised if he becomes the 1.03. Regardless, Bijan won't go here. A trade in possibility is about 5%.

1.05- Seattle- The Seahawks are a tricky forecast. Their boards seem to be different from most other teams and they are not afraid to deviate from consensus. Still, Ken Walker was outstanding as a rookie and this team is thin all over the defensive side of the ball. Don't see Bijan here.

1.06- Detroit- Judging by their actions, snap count utilization, and Swift's injury history, DeAndre projects to be a timeshare back. Williams looks to be an ideal tandem will Swift. Still,
Bijan is a clear step above in talent. The Lions have a superior line and the case can be made that Dan Campbell would love Bijan's skill set as a fit into this offense. Still, Robinson is unlikely here, but not impossible, given Campbell's desire to run the ball. I'll assign a 15% chance at 1.06 as well.

1.07- Raiders- Think JJ comes back. Team has so many other needs, and may deal this pick anyway. McDaniels, prior to this year, was always a committee back practitioner. 5% chance for Bijan here.

1.08- Atlanta- This is my first strong indication of an actual Bijan destination: If the elite QBs are gone and the elite defenders are gone. (My sense is that Stroud, Young, Richardson, Anderson, Carter, Wilson, and Murphy are the top 7)- does Atlanta see Levis in that tier? That's a question that I can't answer, but from a pure talent grade, if Bijan is a top 4 overall player in the class and both the elite QBs and defenders are gone, why NOT go ahead and get value on this pick, especially if Levis is not seen as an ungrade to Ridder. After all, Arthur Smith made his reputation on a Derrick Henry focused offense- why not use Bijan as a means to replicate that success. I'm going with a 40% chance that Bijan goes in this slot.

1.09- Carolina- Another team desperate for a QB. Similar to Indy- they are either going to the very top of the draft to get a Big 3 (Stroud, Young, Richardson) or positioning themselves for Levis. Regardless, don't see a chance of the Panthers drafting a RB. The most likely outcome is that a team is trying to jump in front of Philadelphia, who would just be nuclear with Bijan in the backfield, to take Robinson trades into 1.09. I'll assign a 10% probability of Robinson going here.

1.10- Philadelphia- My view this is the likely floor. Getting a top 4 talent at 1.10 is theft. Eagles can let Sanders walk, add a probowl talented piece to an already dynamic offense and become the Superbowl favorites. 10% possibility.

I just don't see how the 1.04 rated player, even at a devalued position, makes it out of the top 10.

Anyway, those are my thoughts...
 
Dallas is always possible with Jerry at the helm. But would he both put the franchise tag on Pollard and also move up in the draft to get Bijan?
 
Ack88 said:
Let's try and unpack how high Bijan will be drafted. We know two seemingly contrary truths: Robinson is universally considered an elite level talent, in the same tier as Barkley and Zeke. Barkley went 1.02, Zeke went 1.04. Since that time, the consensus opinion is that RBs do not merit that high a selection. With these parameters in mind, here goes:

1.01- Chicago: Be it the Bears pick or a trade is made, it looks like an elite defender or QB. 0% Robinson here.

1.02 - Houston: Most likely QB, but a slight chance of an elite defender. 0% Robinson here.

1.03- Cardinals- While I don't think this is likely, given the myriad needs that the Cardinals have, there is recent precedent (see above) that Robinson lands in Arizona. Far and away, the most likely outcome here is an Edge or a trade in spot looking to get in front of the Colts for a QB. This is the first position that I see a non-zero chance that Bijan gets drafted. The tools are there, Connor is a decent runner but certainly wouldn't foreclose the selection of Robinson in this slot. I'll assign a 15% chance that Robinson goes at 1.03.

1.04- Colts- Feel like the Colts are the most likely team to move in the top 10- either they go up to 1.01 to get their preferred QB, or, if they don't go up and two teams leapfrog them to grab Young/Stroud at 1.01, Houston takes the other QB at 1.02, then get leapfrogged at 1.03 (Feel like Carolina or Atlanta will be a strong player to jump into 1.03 to take a QB). At this point, given that Anthony Richardson crushed the combine, don't be surprised if he becomes the 1.03. Regardless, Bijan won't go here. A trade in possibility is about 5%.

1.05- Seattle- The Seahawks are a tricky forecast. Their boards seem to be different from most other teams and they are not afraid to deviate from consensus. Still, Ken Walker was outstanding as a rookie and this team is thin all over the defensive side of the ball. Don't see Bijan here.

1.06- Detroit- Judging by their actions, snap count utilization, and Swift's injury history, DeAndre projects to be a timeshare back. Williams looks to be an ideal tandem will Swift. Still,
Bijan is a clear step above in talent. The Lions have a superior line and the case can be made that Dan Campbell would love Bijan's skill set as a fit into this offense. Still, Robinson is unlikely here, but not impossible, given Campbell's desire to run the ball. I'll assign a 15% chance at 1.06 as well.

1.07- Raiders- Think JJ comes back. Team has so many other needs, and may deal this pick anyway. McDaniels, prior to this year, was always a committee back practitioner. 5% chance for Bijan here.

1.08- Atlanta- This is my first strong indication of an actual Bijan destination: If the elite QBs are gone and the elite defenders are gone. (My sense is that Stroud, Young, Richardson, Anderson, Carter, Wilson, and Murphy are the top 7)- does Atlanta see Levis in that tier? That's a question that I can't answer, but from a pure talent grade, if Bijan is a top 4 overall player in the class and both the elite QBs and defenders are gone, why NOT go ahead and get value on this pick, especially if Levis is not seen as an ungrade to Ridder. After all, Arthur Smith made his reputation on a Derrick Henry focused offense- why not use Bijan as a means to replicate that success. I'm going with a 40% chance that Bijan goes in this slot.

1.09- Carolina- Another team desperate for a QB. Similar to Indy- they are either going to the very top of the draft to get a Big 3 (Stroud, Young, Richardson) or positioning themselves for Levis. Regardless, don't see a chance of the Panthers drafting a RB. The most likely outcome is that a team is trying to jump in front of Philadelphia, who would just be nuclear with Bijan in the backfield, to take Robinson trades into 1.09. I'll assign a 10% probability of Robinson going here.

1.10- Philadelphia- My view this is the likely floor. Getting a top 4 talent at 1.10 is theft. Eagles can let Sanders walk, add a probowl talented piece to an already dynamic offense and become the Superbowl favorites. 10% possibility.

I just don't see how the 1.04 rated player, even at a devalued position, makes it out of the top 10.

Anyway, those are my thoughts...
Click to expand...
100% that he goes in the top 10? I'd say 10% he goes in top 10.
 
My book actually has a "team to draft Bijan" prop and Detroit are the favourites, then a bit of a gap to Philly, Washington then Cincy
 
titusbramble said:
My book actually has a "team to draft Bijan" prop and Detroit are the favourites, then a bit of a gap to Philly, Washington then Cincy
Click to expand...
I know people are liking Detroit, but 🤮 Maybe just because I'm a Swift owner and believer? But even if Swift can only go 10 touches a game max, why would Swift not steal the bulk of the receiving work? He's so good.
 
eighsse2 said:
titusbramble said:
My book actually has a "team to draft Bijan" prop and Detroit are the favourites, then a bit of a gap to Philly, Washington then Cincy
Click to expand...
I know people are liking Detroit, but 🤮 Maybe just because I'm a Swift owner and believer? But even if Swift can only go 10 touches a game max, why would Swift not steal the bulk of the receiving work? He's so good.
Click to expand...
If they draft Robinson, you can probably stop believing in swift. 🥹
 
Last edited:
Hot Sauce Guy said:
eighsse2 said:
titusbramble said:
My book actually has a "team to draft Bijan" prop and Detroit are the favourites, then a bit of a gap to Philly, Washington then Cincy
Click to expand...
I know people are liking Detroit, but 🤮 Maybe just because I'm a Swift owner and believer? But even if Swift can only go 10 touches a game max, why would Swift not steal the bulk of the receiving work? He's so good.
Click to expand...
If they draft Robinson, you can probably stop believing in swift. 🥹
Click to expand...
Too talented, I'd hope they'd at least trade him.
 
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