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RB Bijan Robinson, ATL (1 Viewer)

From Hot Sauce Guy (because I cannot figure out the quoting):

Well guys, it's happening. Just saw a hot take YouTube video telling people why they *shouldn't* take Bijan with 1.01 in any format.

It was bound to happen.

It's not as bad as it sounds - they made good points about rebuilding teams maybe needing more than a generational talent RB, and that it's a big gamble that the asset would appreciate due to the volatility of the position.

I agree with this in part. But I also recognize that it's a blanket statement, 1-size fits all. Not every rebuild is in the same position. Personally I am going to rebuild around Bijan. Having an elite RB isn't a bad thing to build around if you have many picks, and a few good players already.


I do not agree with the bolded section in this case because I figure Bijan drops to late in the first round to a team that is NOT rebuilding. If he goes to the Bills or Eagles or even the Lions (with their excellent O-line) or something like that, he would be amazing.
He was talking about a rebuilding team in fantasy, not an actual NFL team.

As in, a team that legitimately earned the 1.01 is likely bad and maybe adding a single running back wouldn’t be as beneficial as trading the pick for multiple assets given the shelf life of the position.
 
I do not agree with the bolded section in this case because I figure Bijan drops too late in the first round to a team that is NOT rebuilding. If he goes to the Bills or Eagles or even the Lions (with their excellent O-line) or something like that, he would be amazing.
I’m with you there, and have said as much in this very topic.

That said, their point is valid. A rebuilding FF team with multiple needs, especially in superflex, might just cash that lottery ticket if they get say, 3x 1st round value picks/players for that 1.01

I’m in a more unique position - while I’ve only got 7 “cornerstone” type assets in hand, I also have 6 1st round picks plus 2.01 (13th overall) so I’m likely to take Bijan and build around him, hoping to hit a FF relevant QB in either Young or Stroud, and take the RB2 (likely Gibbs) while maybe dealing ETN + 1.08 or 1.10 + 2.01 for a stud WR or QB.

That’s what I meant by 1 size not fitting all. For me, it kinda makes sense to take Bijan. But if I have 1.01 and 2.01 only and a boatload if needs? Yeah - imma consider moving that pick - especially after the combine & draft. If he has a great combine & lands in KC, BUF or PHI, man - his value will be otherworldly.

Even as is, I’m gonna consider putting that pick on the block and seeing what offers come in. Never know if someone will make a godfather offer. Seems silly to not at least listen to what folks throw at me. :shrug:
 
He was talking about a rebuilding team in fantasy, not an actual NFL team.

As in, a team that legitimately earned the 1.01 is likely bad and maybe adding a single running back wouldn’t be as beneficial as trading the pick for multiple assets given the shelf life of the position.
That is correct. :hifive:
 
The 1.01 is worth 40 in 1QB. Breece Hall is 40. Hindery says they should be ranked similarly.

I can see why a lot of people would agree because some have a hard time taking that leap of faith of putting a player who has never played yet at the top of the list for his position, especially when we are missing a lot of key info right now like the team they are playing, testing, size, etc,etc. Even if all that checks there is also an element of risk even with a "can't miss players"

It's for sure not a stretch that Hall might end up being the better player but I can't gloss over the ACL. I'm also youth obsessed with RB's because I view 27 as basically the new 30(with allowances made for wear/tear) so as minor as it seems getting that 1.5 year age reduction in Bijan actually means something tangible to me.
 
He was talking about a rebuilding team in fantasy, not an actual NFL team
In almost every league I'm in we have a draft playoffs that involves all the teams that did not make the playoffs and some teams that are actually fairly good will end up picking him at 1.1

I really never saw fantasy parity the same as NFL parity. Yes there are some god awful fantasy teams going around but a few lost studs to injury can tank teams. Plus you got teams that stockpile future 1's so they might suck right now but everyone can see they are a sleeping giant once they start adding all those players.
 
but I can't gloss over the ACL

Neither can I, which is why I was wondering aloud if Bijan (even before the combine and draft) is the RB1 from a pure market value perspective. All the guys at the top have flaws. I personally viewed Breece as the #2 or #3 back after his combine and before the draft, so there's certainly a case to be made for Bijan (even if my feelings about Breece were erroneous back then) being the RB1.
 
I can’t imagine why he’s behind a dude who blew his knee out.

And yet, for the most part (right now) he is. That's market value, though. That is subject to wild swings and changes. I think a good showing at the combine will propel him along, should he have a good performance (which I don't doubt other than total top end speed).
 
which is why I was wondering aloud if Bijan (even before the combine and draft) is the RB1 from a pure market value perspective
Bijan would be my RB1 and player 3 overall in standard PPR leagues. The RB1 part of that is the easier call. The talent, health and age vs Taylor and Breece are what makes him so easily my RB1 and I don't see another candidate.

And fwiw I own Breece on two teams and don't have a 1.1.
 
I can’t imagine why he’s behind a dude who blew his knee out.

And yet, for the most part (right now) he is. That's market value, though. That is subject to wild swings and changes. I think a good showing at the combine will propel him along, should he have a good performance (which I don't doubt other than total top end speed).
Yeah - the Hall owner in my league offered him to me for 1.01 & 1.08 & I was very puzzled - he said “that’s what he’s worth”

And I was like, “Not to me.”’

But I looked at all the calcs and sure enough, they have Hall > Bijan, torn ACL and all.

I’d be a little surprised to see anyone take that deal in RL, but paper value seems to confirm it.

He was impressive with the Jets - and that was with a carousel of QB mediocrity. I guess the assumption is he’s gonna come back 💯 and to a team with a better QB situation.

Still…I’ve waited a while to rebuild - I’d rather have the dude with 2 healthy knees. But that’s just me.
 
He would be my RB1 and player 3 overall in standard PPR leagues.

Yeah, I think that's good reasoning, especially if he is 1 1/2 years younger than Hall and/or Taylor. Just makes sense. We can see Bijan. We haven't seen Breece come back yet, nor what the mess in Indy winds up being (though I place a lot less stock in that than ACLs and age).
Yeah, I have them both over JT.

That OL turned to meh in a hurry, and Jeff Saturday was invited back for a 2nd interview, so…yeah.

I’m not anti JT, I just have him behind a few other players right now.
 
Still…I’ve waited a while to rebuild - I’d rather have the dude with 2 healthy knees. But that’s just me.

That's not really a good offer, and not what the 1.01 is worth, HSG. Your assets are worth more than that. Look at a trade value chart. The 1.01 and 1.08 for Breece is a bad offer and is somebody looking at a bad chart somewhere.

Honestly, If you offered me the 1.01 alone for Breece, I'd take it, and considering I just bumped the Breece thread with musings about his ability before the injury, you know that's saying something. I just...ACLs can take two years because of cascading injuries, and that's a lot of time missed.

But yeah, the 1.01 and 1.08 for Breece is a steep price to pay this year, and one you shouldn't (and I assume won't, of course).
 
I do not agree with the bolded section in this case because I figure Bijan drops too late in the first round to a team that is NOT rebuilding. If he goes to the Bills or Eagles or even the Lions (with their excellent O-line) or something like that, he would be amazing.
I’m with you there, and have said as much in this very topic.

That said, their point is valid. A rebuilding FF team with multiple needs, especially in superflex, might just cash that lottery ticket if they get say, 3x 1st round value picks/players for that 1.01

I’m in a more unique position - while I’ve only got 7 “cornerstone” type assets in hand, I also have 6 1st round picks plus 2.01 (13th overall) so I’m likely to take Bijan and build around him, hoping to hit a FF relevant QB in either Young or Stroud,
and take the RB2 (likely Gibbs) while maybe dealing ETN + 1.08 or 1.10 + 2.01 for a stud WR or QB.

That’s what I meant by 1 size not fitting all. For me, it kinda makes sense to take Bijan. But if I have 1.01 and 2.01 only and a boatload if needs? Yeah - imma consider moving that pick - especially after the combine & draft. If he has a great combine & lands in KC, BUF or PHI, man - his value will be otherworldly.

Even as is, I’m gonna consider putting that pick on the block and seeing what offers come in. Never know if someone will make a godfather offer. Seems silly to not at least listen to what folks throw at me. :shrug:
@Hot Sauce Guy - from your bolded above.... I would have to seriously consider 3 x 1st for the 1.01 but I also have multiple picks this year (8 of top 20 picks) so it is not like it offers me something I don't already have. But with no real "cornerstone" players to build around, simply holding A Pierce, C Ridley, J Love as "potential" value, offering a STUD WR/QB combo with a good pick opens the window for consideration. The 2023 & 2024 Drafts are key to my fantasy success but the goal to remain young to start has to be balanced.
For those with multiple "needs", I can see the 1.01 being a valuable asset to move. But for those already with multiple 1st Round Picks, trading it for picks alone is just gambling. The Hit/Miss ratio of talent is too high. Getting a few key Talented/Proven Players has to be part of the equation for a team to gain value in moving the 1.01 (IMO)

I just cannot see anybody in my league to come up with a worthy package to warrant the 1.01 being moved. The only things I have seen so far are WAG/Low Ball spam.
 

ESPN's Mel Kiper projected Texas RB Bijan Robinson to the Cowboys in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft.​

Kiper rightly points out that Jerry Jones "loves star running backs," trying repeatedly over the past 30 years to replicate the success of the Jimmy Johnson Cowboys, with Emmitt Smith running wild behind a dominant offensive line. Robinson, the first back off the board in Kiper's recent mock draft, was a standout at Texas, rushing for 1,580 yards and 18 touchdowns in his final collegiate season. He had 29 rushing scores over his final 22 games at Texas. Ezekiel Elliott will turn 28 this summer and has lost a step over the past few seasons, to put it mildly. Meanwhile, Tony Pollard suffered a broken leg in the Cowboys' Divisional Round loss to the Niners and will rehab the injury throughout the offseason. Robinson would instantly be a top-10 fantasy running back if he were to serve as Dallas' lead back in 2023.
RELATED:
SOURCE: ESPN.com
Jan 25, 2023, 5:08 PM ET
 
Doug Farrar @NFL_DougFarrar
Draft-related stat I just can't get over: In 2022, Bijan Robinson forced 104 MISSED TACKLES ON JUST 257 CARRIES.

That, folks, is not normal.
Just saw your post in the Roschon Johnson thread that he has 45 missed tackles on 94 attempts. Understand both RB's are talented but when I'm seeing this with both of them, and Johnsons ratio of missed tackles to carries is even higher then Bijan's, it does start to make me wonder if quality of opponent is at play?
 
I just cannot see anybody in my league to come up with a worthy package to warrant the 1.01 being moved.
This is what it comes down to for me as well. It has to truly be a godfather offer, and I'd much rather have players than picks - because 1.01 this year is expected to be a premier player. Otherwise you're trading a potential generational talent for a handful of wishes.
 

ESPN's Mel Kiper projected Texas RB Bijan Robinson to the Cowboys in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft.​

Kiper rightly points out that Jerry Jones "loves star running backs," trying repeatedly over the past 30 years to replicate the success of the Jimmy Johnson Cowboys, with Emmitt Smith running wild behind a dominant offensive line. Robinson, the first back off the board in Kiper's recent mock draft, was a standout at Texas, rushing for 1,580 yards and 18 touchdowns in his final collegiate season. He had 29 rushing scores over his final 22 games at Texas. Ezekiel Elliott will turn 28 this summer and has lost a step over the past few seasons, to put it mildly. Meanwhile, Tony Pollard suffered a broken leg in the Cowboys' Divisional Round loss to the Niners and will rehab the injury throughout the offseason. Robinson would instantly be a top-10 fantasy running back if he were to serve as Dallas' lead back in 2023.
RELATED:
SOURCE: ESPN.com
Jan 25, 2023, 5:08 PM ET
If they don't franchise Pollard and phase out Zeke, this would be one of the better landing spots for sure.

If they do franchise Pollard and Zeke hangs around for another 2 years, it would be a hot mess.
 

ESPN's Mel Kiper projected Texas RB Bijan Robinson to the Cowboys in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft.​

Kiper rightly points out that Jerry Jones "loves star running backs," trying repeatedly over the past 30 years to replicate the success of the Jimmy Johnson Cowboys, with Emmitt Smith running wild behind a dominant offensive line. Robinson, the first back off the board in Kiper's recent mock draft, was a standout at Texas, rushing for 1,580 yards and 18 touchdowns in his final collegiate season. He had 29 rushing scores over his final 22 games at Texas. Ezekiel Elliott will turn 28 this summer and has lost a step over the past few seasons, to put it mildly. Meanwhile, Tony Pollard suffered a broken leg in the Cowboys' Divisional Round loss to the Niners and will rehab the injury throughout the offseason. Robinson would instantly be a top-10 fantasy running back if he were to serve as Dallas' lead back in 2023.
RELATED:
SOURCE: ESPN.com
Jan 25, 2023, 5:08 PM ET
If they don't franchise Pollard and phase out Zeke, this would be one of the better landing spots for sure.

If they do franchise Pollard and Zeke hangs around for another 2 years, it would be a hot mess.
Zeke will not be s threat
 
Considered" asking for NOS C Olave with the 1.02 & 2024 1st, but did not want to get into a drawn out negotiation.
Why? You too busy to send/receive a couple offers??? Weird
I could have been more clear ...Myself I am not too busy, but most of my league mates take Jan thru Mid-April off and don't reply or respond to any trade offers until closer to NFL April Draft or our Draft 1st week of May. I have had numerous offers expire without any feedback as they never check into the league site.
I respect their time "away" but for me ... I never stop looking/building/scheming! LOL
 
Where Texas RB Bijan Robinson lands in latest NFL mock draft

Texas running back Bijan Robinson is widely considered one of the top NFL draft prospects this year. He’s commonly listed as the No. 1 running back in this class and Matt Miller of ESPN rates Robinson as his No. 5 overall player.

Robinson’s latest projections have him being taken off of the board in the middle of the first round of many NFL mock drafts. Luke Easterling of the Draft Wire released his latest mock draft shortly after the Super Bowl ended and has the former Longhorn being selected by the Detroit Lions with the No. 18 overall pick.

The Lions are emerging as a popular destination for Robinson. The Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens are two other NFL organizations that have been commonly tied to Robinson in mock drafts.
 
I know BR is a special talent, but did anyone notice what draft capital the 2 Super Bowl teams were rolling out there? Somehow it didn't stop them from getting that far.
 
I know BR is a special talent, but did anyone notice what draft capital the 2 Super Bowl teams were rolling out there? Somehow it didn't stop them from getting that far.
It's hard to make a case that you need a big time RB to reach the top. But if you wanted to point to how they benefit a team you could look at a team like SF and what CMC meant to them. You can look at a team like the Bills whose one dimensional approach might be putting to much on Josh Allen's plate. And even the Chargers, and realizing Ekekler was big for fantasy, but he's not really a foundation type runner and if they had that kind of RB they might have been able to hold onto that lead they blew vs the Jags.

But to your point that's the reason most top 50/100 lists have Bijan as a top 5 or top 10 player in the draft but most mocks are putting him in the 20's.
 
Agree Dallas would ding his value. You like Buffalo, but I think that would also be a less than landing spot with Allen being the goalline back, not to mention a couple not completely crap guys as backups.

My preferences would be CIN, LVR, ARI, LAR, maybe a few others.
 
Agree Dallas would ding his value. You like Buffalo, but I think that would also be a less than landing spot with Allen being the goalline back, not to mention a couple not completely crap guys as backups.

My preferences would be CIN, LVR, ARI, LAR, maybe a few others.
E-A-G-L-E-S Eagles!

#1 best possible landing spot. Sure, Hurts vultures a score here and there, but that OL is so good, and they run a ton of plays, and throw to the RB at a good clip.
 
Agree Dallas would ding his value. You like Buffalo, but I think that would also be a less than landing spot with Allen being the goalline back, not to mention a couple not completely crap guys as backups.

My preferences would be CIN, LVR, ARI, LAR, maybe a few others.
E-A-G-L-E-S Eagles!

#1 best possible landing spot. Sure, Hurts vultures a score here and there, but that OL is so good, and they run a ton of plays, and throw to the RB at a good clip.
I 'm not trying to be a contrarian but I seriously don't like Philly at all for Bijan or Gibbs, both of whom I keep seeing mocked to Philly. I'd hate it more for Gibbs but not a fan of the spot for either of them.

Mainly because I don't see eye to eye with two of your premises, with us being in agreement on the OL.

To me Hurts does not vulture a TD here and there so much as he's a goal line ball hog. Even with Hurts missing a few games the Eagles almost doubled up QB runs inside the 5 from the second highest team(s), which was a tie between Chicago and Buffalo. Eagles had 20 QB runs inside the 5, those two had 11. And the Eagles Qb's did double up QB rushing TD's from inside the 5 yard line with 10,with next highest team having 5. If you move this analysis back to 10 yard's it's essentially the same thing except the QB rushing TD gap between the Eagles and the next team actually widens a bit.

They are also dead last in the league in targets to RB's. To put in perspective the Chargers were two targets to RB's away from tripling how many times the Eagles threw to RB's and 9 different teams threw to their Rb's at least twice as much as Philly.

As a team they tend to like to rotate RB's a little so the pie is split up but due to Hurts heavy goal line usage and lack of throwing to Rb's the overall fantasy points from the team RB position was in in the mid 20's range, lower third of the league. ETA-in PPR leagues
 
Agree Dallas would ding his value. You like Buffalo, but I think that would also be a less than landing spot with Allen being the goalline back, not to mention a couple not completely crap guys as backups.

My preferences would be CIN, LVR, ARI, LAR, maybe a few others.
E-A-G-L-E-S Eagles!

#1 best possible landing spot. Sure, Hurts vultures a score here and there, but that OL is so good, and they run a ton of plays, and throw to the RB at a good clip.
I 'm not trying to be a contrarian but I seriously don't like Philly at all for Bijan or Gibbs, both of whom I keep seeing mocked to Philly. I'd hate it more for Gibbs but not a fan of the spot for either of them.

Mainly because I don't see eye to eye with two of your premises, with us being in agreement on the OL.

To me Hurts does not vulture a TD here and there so much as he's a goal line ball hog. Even with Hurts missing a few games the Eagles almost doubled up QB runs inside the 5 from the second highest team(s), which was a tie between Chicago and Buffalo. Eagles had 20 QB runs inside the 5, those two had 11. And the Eagles Qb's did double up QB rushing TD's from inside the 5 yard line with 10,with next highest team having 5. If you move this analysis back to 10 yard's it's essentially the same thing except the QB rushing TD gap between the Eagles and the next team actually widens a bit.

They are also dead last in the league in targets to RB's. To put in perspective the Chargers were two targets to RB's away from tripling how many times the Eagles threw to RB's and 9 different teams threw to their Rb's at least twice as much as Philly.

As a team they tend to like to rotate RB's a little so the pie is split up but due to Hurts heavy goal line usage and lack of throwing to Rb's the overall fantasy points from the team RB position was in in the mid 20's range, lower third of the league. ETA-in PPR leagues
I don’t mind the contrarian opinions - it keeps the debate lively.

I agree with much of what you’ve said - I do believe the increased volume of a quality offense would help to off-set some of the concerns about rotation & Hurts being the GL option.

I also have to wonder about the “chicken & the egg” possibility. E.g. it’s possible that they rotate backs because they lack a workhorse RB who can carry the load. They tried with Sanders in the past and it led to injury.

For another, related note, it’s possible they use Hurts so much at the stripe for lack of better scoring options. Again, the presence of a Bijan could well change offensive philosophy a bit - and maybe it would be smart for the Eagles to protect their franchise QB by doing so.

All speculation. It’s speculation SZN, after all. But I definitely appreciate your insight. It’s all valuable in the exercise of “who we want to go where”.

Personally, I just love the Philly OL, and want a good RB to run behind a good OL. But there are definitely caveats to both BUF & PHI.

KC is another interesting spot. I feel Gibbs would be the better back for that system, but I also feel like any system that adds a Bijan would necessarily adapt to feeding the RB more between the tackles. It sure looked like KC wanted to do that with Pacheco, who’s a fraction of the player Bijan is.
 
Regarding Hurts being the main goal line option I'm sure that would decrease with Bijan. Also the possible rule change with that Rugby play Philly likes to run so much could lessen the role of Hurts at the goal line but I was just making the point he's basically doubling up RB runs inside the 10 from the second QB so he could decline a lot and still be a nuisance.

The lack of passing to RB's is a bigger concern to me and why I had mentioned I would hate Philly more for Gibbs then Bijan.

I think it's some of the same issues we've seen in Baltimore and Buffalo as examples. So much goes through the QB, it limits the upside of the RB's. All those cases have an element of "chicken vs the egg" argument regarding health and talent of the RB's but the overall RB fantasy production has been light.
 
Almost all the top 10 or more scoring RBs this year did NOT have a QB who does much fantasy scoring as a runner. Just saying. When you got guys like Allen, Hurts, Lamar.......I think there is something to it that limits the RB scoring upside.
Also, things change fast I'm the NFL, meaning situations change fast, sometimes within that first year.
 
Yeah, allow me to chime in as a Sanders GM and just say that it seemed like Hurts completely dominated inside the five as far as carries go. Or so it seemed. Boston Scott also got in there quite a few times, so maybe it's Sanders, but it seemed like Hurts was the go-to guy down inside the five.
 

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