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RB Breece Hall, NYJ (2 Viewers)

rockaction said:
Breece, you’re the best. 15+ rushes and less than 1 yard before contact on average, but you averaged 5.6 a carry? That is ludicrous. There were three other backs where those conditions were met, None averaged over 3.1 YPC. LOL.

Click to expand...
Before the season started you were warning anyone who would listen not to draft Breece Hall based on some dubious blocking scheme YPC analytics you posted here. The data was worthless to the point of making anyone who read it dumber and you were told in detail exactly why it is was problematic and potentially misleading yet you said it was “awful news for Hall owners” and you never seemed to learn or evolve your position. In fact later you said you were “infuriated” that people would question you and make you spend time defending the misleading and unhelpful info you posted.

Now just a few days later you are willing to completely discard seasons worth of your prior analytics to embrace one game’s worth of your next YPC analysis and suddenly Hall, the very same player, who was supposedly terrible before is now “the best” in your eyes.

Can you see the problem with your approach?

When we disagreed on Hall’s prospects I invited you to discuss Hall’s specific tape. You declined, which I respect and which is your right, but that is a far more useful and productive way to assess a player’s outlook IMO. Hall had some good tape in 2024 (admittedly moreso before he started having some nagging injuries around week 11) and his early game tape in 2025 is excellent also. The 2024 Jets had bad coaching and bad schemes and rampant dysfunction and some of that rubbed off on Hall and impacted performance but a trained football eye needs to be able to separate player performance from football context. When you do that Hall’s tape in 2024 should not have been any kind of red flag, much of it was quite good.
 
electric Ape said:
rockaction said:
Breece, you’re the best. 15+ rushes and less than 1 yard before contact on average, but you averaged 5.6 a carry? That is ludicrous. There were three other backs where those conditions were met, None averaged over 3.1 YPC. LOL.

Click to expand...
Before the season started you were warning anyone who would listen not to draft Breece Hall based on some dubious blocking scheme YPC analytics you posted here. The data was worthless to the point of making anyone who read it dumber and you were told in detail exactly why it is was problematic and potentially misleading yet you said it was “awful news for Hall owners” and you never seemed to learn or evolve your position. In fact later you said you were “infuriated” that people would question you and make you spend time defending the misleading and unhelpful info you posted.

Now just a few days later you are willing to completely discard seasons worth of your prior analytics to embrace one game’s worth of your next YPC analysis and suddenly Hall, the very same player, who was supposedly terrible before is now “the best” in your eyes.

Can you see the problem with your approach?

When we disagreed on Hall’s prospects I invited you to discuss Hall’s specific tape. You declined, which I respect and which is your right, but that is a far more useful and productive way to assess a player’s outlook IMO. Hall had some good tape in 2024 (admittedly moreso before he started having some nagging injuries around week 11) and his early game tape in 2025 is excellent also. The 2024 Jets had bad coaching and bad schemes and rampant dysfunction and some of that rubbed off on Hall and impacted performance but a trained football eye needs to be able to separate player performance from football context. When you do that Hall’s tape in 2024 should not have been any kind of red flag, much of it was quite good.
Click to expand...

Yeah, no. You're a foul dude with a grudge. I didn't steer people off of Breece. What exactly is this? My position all along has been that I was holding Breece through all of this and resigned to the fact that he might be hurt or the coach would do him wrong. You still have a problem with the statistics, huh? And now you're going to make **** up?

No. Read what I said. And then see what I did. I was worried about the Jets GM and coach. Or that Breece was hurt, which was plausible. In fact, during camp you can see me in Braelon Allen's thread arguing that Breece was the best back I had ever seen before his ACL injury and that even 90-95 percent of him sufficed as a standout bellcow in the league. I'm posting this and will find the quote.

But I'm almost positive I never told anyone to back off of him. I certainly didn't recommend him. That's true. You do realize his snap share is 58% right now and Nathan Jahnke at PFF has him as a sell-high and so does FantasyPros in their buy, sell, hold column?

Dude, you're just in error. You tend to be that or do that.


How about this? This quote below from when it was at its worst is where I agree that I'm holding Breece and hope for the best. Did I ever once say I was selling Breece or tell people to sell him? Or not to draft him?

rockaction said:
mjb03003 said:
I still believe he’s a great buy low in dynasty because (I believe) he is destined to be traded to and/or sign with a new team that wants him to be their unquestioned lead back. He’ll be just 25 years old and he’ll probably get a 3 year deal and there will be a nice window of RB1 production in what is almost certainly to be a better offense (sorry Jets fans).
Click to expand...

I can totally get behind this. Let’s see if he has the burst he lacked last year (I think he was hurt or playing through serious pain).
Click to expand...

You're wrong again. Here's a metaphorical brick wall. Enjoy talking to it. Peace.
 
Here, this is what I also said. LOL. You'll have to click on my quotes to read them. I could also quote the one where I call the coach a "moron" if he chooses Allen over Hall.

rockaction said:
RaidersAreOne said:
How come Allen is going so late in drafts? From reports it sounds like the staff wants to lean more into Allen this year and at worst case he is a high-end handcuff.

Why isn't there more buzz around Braelon?
Click to expand...

I can partially answer that. Everybody saw Breece. Everybody saw Breece's run against nine in Green Bay his first year. They saw the number of explosive runs. They saw this guy gallop through defenses. Then the injury came and everybody waited to see if he'd be okay. And they rushed him but you could still see 90% Breece and that's enough. And they did things like not running him enough or running him like 35 times in a meaningless game at the end of the year to get him statistics that they didn't even do the basic addition on to make sure they knew what they were sacrificing his body for. And for some reason they used two decent rounds of draft capital on these two other backs.

And so the Jets are continuing to Jet. And since your average FF'er knows that the Jets are radioactive, they stay away. It's not like Breece is going in the second and Allen too late. Breece is sinking like a dunked witch in Salem and nobody's touching Braelon because nobody thinks they'll do right by the best back, and even if they did the offense would stink so badly that there's no real juice. It'll make for good banging football, but not for wins and stat counts. It just won't.

So Braelon seemingly goes way too late. And if I had to guess, I'd say the Jets screw up each of the three backs. They'll get it wrong. Because it's a garbage organization headed by a billion dollar nepo baby that lets his kid make personnel decisions from Madden.

I'm so out on all these guys. I feel bad for Breece. I feel bad for Braelon and Isaiah Davis. I'm just ornery writing about it, so please pardon me a bit.
Click to expand...

rockaction said:
Harjiran said:
I like Braelon Allen a lot by the way. Dude is huge and fast and he just trucks people but this year he's number 2 in a committe from what I can see. Maybe next year he gets his big chance with Breece Hall going to another team maybe.
Click to expand...

I think Allen has a future. I'm also biased because I roster Breece in dynasty but up until he tore his ACL (which was the only time since 2003 that the result of a sporting event has ruined a day and left me sick and nauseated) he was one of the best I'd ever seen. Now, you have to understand that baseball was my main sport from the time I graduated college in 1997 up until 2011 and I followed it like I follow football now, which means I missed the day-to-day in football for a decade and a half and you had A Pete, LaDanian Tomlinson, and a host of others I don't have a frame of reference for. But yeah, it was Breece and he played for my team and he was on my main magic football squad. It was awesome. I was absolutely rapt on draft day when Joe Douglas traded a fifth to move right in front of Houston by one spot to draft him—and I knew as soon as the trade flashed on the screen why the Jets had traded and who they were taking; and I held the dynasty 1.01 that year so I could barely contain myself. I just . . . was stunned in the way like when things are absolutely perfect one sunny day when you're enthralled with your hobby. **** just seemed right.

And now this.
Click to expand...
 
Like, I held him and am holding him. Don't deceptively edit and say I said to sell him. I'm holidng and have held against industry advice and you're asserting that I told people to not draft or to sell him somehoiw?

This is dated Sept. 9th at FantasyPros

www.fantasypros.com

Players to Buy Low & Sell High in Week 2 (2025 Fantasy Football)

Get Week 2 fantasy football Buy Low and Sell High trade advice from our Featured Pros. Find out which players to target and which to flip.
www.fantasypros.com www.fantasypros.com

Breece Hall (RB – NYJ)​

“My favorite sell-high candidate is Breece Hall. I was one of his biggest fans coming into this year, and I think he’ll be phenomenal moving forward. With that being said, after his Week 1 performance, he may have an RB1 price tag on him. Getting that for a guy you drafted in the third or fourth round is just too good to pass up in my opinion.”
– Trevor Land (FlurrySports)

“Members of the Breece Hall Fan Club are taking victory laps after Hall had 19-107-0 rushing and 2-38-0 receiving in Week 1, but concerns about Hall’s usage remain. Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis rotated in behind Hall, and it was Allen who scored on an 8-yard TD run when the Jets’ offense got inside the green zone early in the second quarter. If you have adequate RB depth and need WR help, see if you can trade Hall for a receiver with a similar ADP, such as Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Marvin Harrison, Mike Evans or Terry McLaurin.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)

By the way, you saying that what I said about Breece in zone schemes vs, gap is wrong? PFF agrees! Holy smoke, dude.

Oh my God. Dude, find a hole and crawl into it. That's both Ryan Heath of Fantasy Points and Pro Football Focus that both say the same thing! Dude! LOLOOO

Breece Hall | New York Jets HB | NFL and PFF stats

NFL and PFF player stats for New York Jets HB Breece Hall on Pro Football Focus.
www.pff.com www.pff.com

"Hall’s fantasy production decreased from 17.1 PPR points per game to 15.1 PPR points per game, primarily due to a decrease in target rate from 28.8% to 19.5%. That is unlikely to bounce back with Justin Fields as the quarterback.
•
Hall plays notably better on gap runs compared to zone, finishing with 5.6 yards per carry on gap runs and 3.7 on zone. The Jets' new offensive coordinator, Tanner Engstrand, comes from the Detroit Lions, who had the sixth-highest rate of using zone runs last season.
•
Hall was the subject of trade rumors during the draft. New head coach Aaron Glenn said they plan on using all three running backs, and the coaches come from the Lions, who used a committee in the past. This all suggests a decrease in Hall's playing time this season."
 
I don’t have a lot of posts in this thread. All I’ve done is tell people the anti-Breece Hall stats you posted were dubious and should be ignored and I told people that I was drafting Hall at ADP and that I recommend others do also. Wouldn’t that be the kind of helpful fantasy info that would prevent people from losing money by taking your bad stats seriously and help them win money by drafting Breece Hall at a value? Here I thought I was being a good friend to the fantasy community by rooting out misinformation and by passing along much better info but according to you I’m a terrible meanie who can only do wrong :-)
 
Oh my God, I can't believe this. You said you "invited me to watch tape"????

You never asked me to do that! Dude, don't ever bother me again. You're so ridiculous that it's hilarioius.

Go argue with Fantasy Points. Then argue with the guy at the company that sell scouting information to college programs and pro teams! LOL.
 
electric Ape said:
I don’t have a lot of posts in this thread. All I’ve done is tell people the anti-Breece Hall stats you posted were dubious and should be ignored and I told people that I was drafting Hall at ADP and that I recommend others do also. Wouldn’t that be the kind of helpful fantasy info that would prevent people from losing money by taking your bad stats seriously and help them win money by drafting Breece Hall at a value? Here I thought I was being a good friend to the fantasy community by rooting out misinformation and by passing along much better info but according to you I’m a terrible meanie who can only do wrong :-)
Click to expand...

And guess what? Those stats came from Pro Football Focus and Fantasy Points. See upthread a post or two. It's exactly what I said. Do you know who PFF employs??? Oh my God. People should trust you over PFF, Fantasy Points, and me! That's awesome. Do you have any other tricks or suggestions?

They said the same thing.

You're just dead wrong, and I was completely right, which I told you I was (dead right, that is) and to leave me alone!

So leave me alone!
 
And I posted the PFF link, which isn't even behind a paywall. Would you like me to find the Fantasy Points author and link? It's Ryan Heath. Nah, **** that.

You've now wasted four or five solid hours of my time just being ****ing wrong and being a ****ing obdurate idiot. You can find it on X/Twitter

Here it is, actually. Below it is the PFF one.


Breece Hall | New York Jets HB | NFL and PFF stats

NFL and PFF player stats for New York Jets HB Breece Hall on Pro Football Focus.
www.pff.com www.pff.com

Do me a favor in the future. Don't stop by or say hi. And try not to be so sure of yourself, arrogant, and a time suck on others in the future.
 
lol. You're back. The only internet-appropriate thing to do is to lurk or keep arguing, I guess. Because I think I'm the only idiot that says mea culpa, I'm sorry, I was the jerk, I was the *******. I do and a few otrhers do. But I don't expect that of you, bro. Keep it real in the field. Peace.
 
You are having what is known as a meltdown, friend. Pause. Take time to breathe. Fantasy football is only a game based around another game. When you admit that other people’s posts are making you “infuriated” that is a clear sign to step away for a bit and focus on your wellbeing. Almost nothing in the world should ever have the power to penetrate your inner temple and move your emotions to fury and certainly fantasy football never should. I sincerely wish you wellness and inner peace
 
electric Ape said:
You are having what is known as a meltdown, friend. Pause. Take time to breathe. Fantasy football is only a game based around another game. When you admit that other people’s posts are making you “infuriated” that is a clear sign to step away for a bit and focus on your wellbeing. Almost nothing in the world should ever have the power to penetrate your inner temple and move your emotions to fury and certainly fantasy football never should. I sincerely wish you wellness and inner peace
Click to expand...

No, I'm not having a meltdown. You said I was wrong about a very specific issue and you wasted six hours of my time arguing about it. And now you're just wrong. It was over a specific claim about Breece Hall's success in zone schemes vs. man. You're gaslighting me now and pointing to my emotional state. Funny, but you're actually doing this, and gentle reader, this is what this cynical guy is doing. Funny. It's called argumentum ad personam and it's an ad hominem informal logical fallacy.


rockaction

Thread 'Argumentum Ad Personam - An Explanation of the Fallacy and Its Tactical Use'

If you participate in online communities or public debate, you might have noticed a type of response that occurs often these days. It starts with a phrase like the ones below. Each one is ostensibly an observation that posits that there is some sort of behavioral problem with a speaker or writer who is advancing a particular argument or even just discussing an issue. The speaker is met with something like one of these phrases by a person (let's call them the interlocutor) who says something like:
  • “Why do you care?”
  • “Y U MAD”
  • “You seem upset.”
  • “You're only saying that...
  • Like
 
ConstruxBoy said:
sigh
Click to expand...

No, wait, ConstruxBoy. This guy started debating a subject and sent me with the burden of proof all over the place to prove my point but he did it condescendingly and arrogantly. It took a total of six hours, but I found the citations and they're two separate places confirming. I'm correct and he's going to try and claim that somehow this is okay to do because I'm mad he wasted six hours of my time and life.

No, it's not okay.

This guy just tried to gaslight me.
 
Last edited:
Yeah, I thought about this.

This was your contention, in print.

electric Ape said:
Just for a fan of football, not even a football person, would it make sense that Breece Hall is wildly better at power gap running than on zone concept runs? Is he more of a big physical one cut runner or is he more of a patient, finesse runner who uses vision to set up his blockers? Unless you disregard the consensus of the entire NFL scouting community this result set is counterintuitive. Sometimes data can disprove a subjective human bias and provide a breakthrough in understanding. It’s possible that this has happened here but probably not likely.
Click to expand...

And the data says, yes, it would sense. PFF points out that Breece in man gap is two yards per carry better than Breece in zone

per PFF: "Hall plays notably better on gap runs compared to zone, finishing with 5.6 yards per carry on gap runs and 3.7 on zone. The Jets' new offensive coordinator, Tanner Engstrand, comes from the Detroit Lions, who had the sixth-highest rate of using zone runs last season."

Breece Hall | New York Jets HB | NFL and PFF stats

NFL and PFF player stats for New York Jets HB Breece Hall on Pro Football Focus.
www.pff.com www.pff.com

Here's the second source by Ryan Heath, Fantasy Points, This ays that Breece is the best man gap runner in football and the 37th-best zone concept runner.

RB Leaders in YPC on Man/Gap Concept Runs+ 2022-2024, min. 120 such runs,

@FantasyPtsData
1. Breece Hall (5.65)2. JK Dobbins (5.44)3. James Cook (5.25)4. Aaron Jones (5.23)...47. Alexander Mattison (3.29)

RB Leaders in YPC on Zone Concept Runs+ 2022-2024, min. 120 such runs,

@FantasyPtsData
1. Jahmyr Gibbs (6.02)2. Raheem Mostert (5.25)3. Derrick Henry (5.14)4. Christian McCaffrey (4.96)...37. Breece Hall (3.73)

And now I'm done. You put me through all that and said my emotions were the problem?

No, man. You're out of line.
 
ConstruxBoy said:
But does it matter. Who the heck is HE?
Don't let it bother you. I don't let it bother me when you mock me.
:hifive:
Click to expand...

I get it. Please hear me out. I'm not angry anymore. I tried all along to explain to everyone else why I wasn't engaging, but I also wanted to make clear that I thought I was both right and that I also got the feeling he was arguing in bad faith just to maoe me look bad and to **** on the board. But it wasn't just that. He was a charlatan and if you look at his posts, he's steering people factually wrong and they're both believing a falsehood and thereby undermining themselves, but they're (and I'll admit it) personally rejecting my efforts and then explaining to me why my data and explanation is incorrect. It's weird to have that sort of "you're wrong and mistaken" talk directed at you when you're clearly right.

It's weird. I'll drop it now. That took now seven-plus hours out of my life.

It's over.
 
And he's gone. I need to handle that better so that I can get my point across without it taking up a full day. I actually do care about this stuff and it matters to me. Maybe I need to not care so much. Peace.
 
So after all that … we can agree Breece Hall looked pretty good last week and was legit value for his ADP …. Cliff Notes … sparring anyone else having to go back and read through that ranting 😎
 
Analytics are interesting, but I always just use my eyes. My eyes tell me Hall has elite rb skills. The big concern was gonna be his usage with Allen being decent. After a big first week I'm still not convinced Hall is the workhorse rb. Would we be completely surprised if both rbs get the same amount of touches this week?
 
FarFromHome said:
Analytics are interesting, but I always just use my eyes. My eyes tell me Hall has elite rb skills. The big concern was gonna be his usage with Allen being decent. After a big first week I'm still not convinced Hall is the workhorse rb. Would we be completely surprised if both rbs get the same amount of touches this week?
Click to expand...

See, that was the problem with what that guy did. It wasn’t analytics. It was film. It was whether it was a zone blocking concept or a man gap blocking concept. Once they figured out which one it was, then they just did YPC for each blocking scheme. No analytics. At all.

That guy got in everybody’s head about basic stuff. That wasn’t right of him.
 
steelwind said:
So Breece gets the Bills run D who is dead last in the NFL…WITH DT Ed Oliver.

But now Oliver, who DNP Wed + today, is in a walking boot and moving around the locker room on a medical scooter. What was already a plus matchup on paper gets even better if Oliver is inactive.
https://x.com/agetzenberg/status/1966192058118631447
Click to expand...

IDP doesn’t mean you’re doing well necessarily but sometimes it does. Oliver scored like thirty points against the Ravens. He was Buffalo’s playmaker that night. Maybe the Jets catch a break.
 
rockaction said:
steelwind said:
So Breece gets the Bills run D who is dead last in the NFL…WITH DT Ed Oliver.

But now Oliver, who DNP Wed + today, is in a walking boot and moving around the locker room on a medical scooter. What was already a plus matchup on paper gets even better if Oliver is inactive.
https://x.com/agetzenberg/status/1966192058118631447
Click to expand...

IDP doesn’t mean you’re doing well necessarily but sometimes it does. Oliver scored like thirty points against the Ravens. He was Buffalo’s playmaker that night. Maybe the Jets catch a break.
Click to expand...

Huh?
 
steelwind said:
rockaction said:
steelwind said:
So Breece gets the Bills run D who is dead last in the NFL…WITH DT Ed Oliver.

But now Oliver, who DNP Wed + today, is in a walking boot and moving around the locker room on a medical scooter. What was already a plus matchup on paper gets even better if Oliver is inactive.
https://x.com/agetzenberg/status/1966192058118631447
Click to expand...

IDP doesn’t mean you’re doing well necessarily but sometimes it does. Oliver scored like thirty points against the Ravens. He was Buffalo’s playmaker that night. Maybe the Jets catch a break.
Click to expand...

Huh?
Click to expand...

IDP is a type of fantasy roster. It stands for "independent defensive players" and those individual defensive players (that you pick) score points just like your offensive guys do. We play with nine offensive and nine defensive players. There are three guys on the defensive line, at least one DT and one DE. Ed Oliver is a DT and he scored a ****-ton of points in IDP last week. He had 6 tackles, 3 tackles for losses, a forced fumble, and a sack. My league is defensive tackle premium so he got thirty points for that outstanding defensive performance.

3 DLs, 3 LBs, 3 DBs
 
rockaction said:
steelwind said:
rockaction said:
steelwind said:
So Breece gets the Bills run D who is dead last in the NFL…WITH DT Ed Oliver.

But now Oliver, who DNP Wed + today, is in a walking boot and moving around the locker room on a medical scooter. What was already a plus matchup on paper gets even better if Oliver is inactive.
https://x.com/agetzenberg/status/1966192058118631447
Click to expand...

IDP doesn’t mean you’re doing well necessarily but sometimes it does. Oliver scored like thirty points against the Ravens. He was Buffalo’s playmaker that night. Maybe the Jets catch a break.
Click to expand...

Huh?
Click to expand...

IDP is independent defensive players in fantasy. It's when you have defensive guys in your scoring. Ed Oliver had a ****-ton of points in IDP last week. He had 6 tackles, 3 tackles for losses, a forced fumble, and a sack. My league is defensive tackle premium so he got thirty points for that outstanding defensive performance.
Click to expand...
I know what IDP is. What does that have to do with Breece’s matchup?
 
steelwind said:
rockaction said:
steelwind said:
rockaction said:
steelwind said:
So Breece gets the Bills run D who is dead last in the NFL…WITH DT Ed Oliver.

But now Oliver, who DNP Wed + today, is in a walking boot and moving around the locker room on a medical scooter. What was already a plus matchup on paper gets even better if Oliver is inactive.
https://x.com/agetzenberg/status/1966192058118631447
Click to expand...

IDP doesn’t mean you’re doing well necessarily but sometimes it does. Oliver scored like thirty points against the Ravens. He was Buffalo’s playmaker that night. Maybe the Jets catch a break.
Click to expand...

Huh?
Click to expand...

IDP is independent defensive players in fantasy. It's when you have defensive guys in your scoring. Ed Oliver had a ****-ton of points in IDP last week. He had 6 tackles, 3 tackles for losses, a forced fumble, and a sack. My league is defensive tackle premium so he got thirty points for that outstanding defensive performance.
Click to expand...
I know what IDP is. What does that have to do with Breece’s matchup?
Click to expand...

That the DT that just had the monstrous thirty-point fantasy game because he was all over the place and destoying the Baltimore line won't be destroying the Jets' line if he's hurt.

That seems like a quick inference to make. Maybe not. Does that make sense?
 
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