RB Breece Hall, NYJ (7 Viewers)

[rockaction]

Breece, you’re the best. 15+ rushes and less than 1 yard before contact on average, but you averaged 5.6 a carry? That is ludicrous. There were three other backs where those conditions were met, None averaged over 3.1 YPC. LOL.

https://x.com/jagibbs_23/status/1965578151209427024

 

[electric Ape]

Breece, you’re the best. 15+ rushes and less than 1 yard before contact on average, but you averaged 5.6 a carry? That is ludicrous. There were three other backs where those conditions were met, None averaged over 3.1 YPC. LOL.

https://x.com/jagibbs_23/status/1965578151209427024

Before the season started you were warning anyone who would listen not to draft Breece Hall based on some dubious blocking scheme YPC analytics you posted here. The data was worthless to the point of making anyone who read it dumber and you were told in detail exactly why it is was problematic and potentially misleading yet you said it was “awful news for Hall owners” and you never seemed to learn or evolve your position. In fact later you said you were “infuriated” that people would question you and make you spend time defending the misleading and unhelpful info you posted.

Now just a few days later you are willing to completely discard seasons worth of your prior analytics to embrace one game’s worth of your next YPC analysis and suddenly Hall, the very same player, who was supposedly terrible before is now “the best” in your eyes.

Can you see the problem with your approach?

When we disagreed on Hall’s prospects I invited you to discuss Hall’s specific tape. You declined, which I respect and which is your right, but that is a far more useful and productive way to assess a player’s outlook IMO. Hall had some good tape in 2024 (admittedly moreso before he started having some nagging injuries around week 11) and his early game tape in 2025 is excellent also. The 2024 Jets had bad coaching and bad schemes and rampant dysfunction and some of that rubbed off on Hall and impacted performance but a trained football eye needs to be able to separate player performance from football context. When you do that Hall’s tape in 2024 should not have been any kind of red flag, much of it was quite good.

 

[rockaction]

Breece, you’re the best. 15+ rushes and less than 1 yard before contact on average, but you averaged 5.6 a carry? That is ludicrous. There were three other backs where those conditions were met, None averaged over 3.1 YPC. LOL.

https://x.com/jagibbs_23/status/1965578151209427024

Before the season started you were warning anyone who would listen not to draft Breece Hall based on some dubious blocking scheme YPC analytics you posted here. The data was worthless to the point of making anyone who read it dumber and you were told in detail exactly why it is was problematic and potentially misleading yet you said it was “awful news for Hall owners” and you never seemed to learn or evolve your position. In fact later you said you were “infuriated” that people would question you and make you spend time defending the misleading and unhelpful info you posted.

Now just a few days later you are willing to completely discard seasons worth of your prior analytics to embrace one game’s worth of your next YPC analysis and suddenly Hall, the very same player, who was supposedly terrible before is now “the best” in your eyes.

Can you see the problem with your approach?

When we disagreed on Hall’s prospects I invited you to discuss Hall’s specific tape. You declined, which I respect and which is your right, but that is a far more useful and productive way to assess a player’s outlook IMO. Hall had some good tape in 2024 (admittedly moreso before he started having some nagging injuries around week 11) and his early game tape in 2025 is excellent also. The 2024 Jets had bad coaching and bad schemes and rampant dysfunction and some of that rubbed off on Hall and impacted performance but a trained football eye needs to be able to separate player performance from football context. When you do that Hall’s tape in 2024 should not have been any kind of red flag, much of it was quite good.

Yeah, no. You're a foul dude with a grudge. I didn't steer people off of Breece. What exactly is this? My position all along has been that I was holding Breece through all of this and resigned to the fact that he might be hurt or the coach would do him wrong. You still have a problem with the statistics, huh? And now you're going to make **** up?

No. Read what I said. And then see what I did. I was worried about the Jets GM and coach. Or that Breece was hurt, which was plausible. In fact, during camp you can see me in Braelon Allen's thread arguing that Breece was the best back I had ever seen before his ACL injury and that even 90-95 percent of him sufficed as a standout bellcow in the league. I'm posting this and will find the quote.

But I'm almost positive I never told anyone to back off of him. I certainly didn't recommend him. That's true. You do realize his snap share is 58% right now and Nathan Jahnke at PFF has him as a sell-high and so does FantasyPros in their buy, sell, hold column?

Dude, you're just in error. You tend to be that or do that.


How about this? This quote below from when it was at its worst is where I agree that I'm holding Breece and hope for the best. Did I ever once say I was selling Breece or tell people to sell him? Or not to draft him?

I still believe he’s a great buy low in dynasty because (I believe) he is destined to be traded to and/or sign with a new team that wants him to be their unquestioned lead back. He’ll be just 25 years old and he’ll probably get a 3 year deal and there will be a nice window of RB1 production in what is almost certainly to be a better offense (sorry Jets fans).

I can totally get behind this. Let’s see if he has the burst he lacked last year (I think he was hurt or playing through serious pain).

You're wrong again. Here's a metaphorical brick wall. Enjoy talking to it. Peace.

 

[rockaction]

Here, this is what I also said. LOL. You'll have to click on my quotes to read them. I could also quote the one where I call the coach a "moron" if he chooses Allen over Hall.

How come Allen is going so late in drafts? From reports it sounds like the staff wants to lean more into Allen this year and at worst case he is a high-end handcuff.

Why isn't there more buzz around Braelon?

I can partially answer that. Everybody saw Breece. Everybody saw Breece's run against nine in Green Bay his first year. They saw the number of explosive runs. They saw this guy gallop through defenses. Then the injury came and everybody waited to see if he'd be okay. And they rushed him but you could still see 90% Breece and that's enough. And they did things like not running him enough or running him like 35 times in a meaningless game at the end of the year to get him statistics that they didn't even do the basic addition on to make sure they knew what they were sacrificing his body for. And for some reason they used two decent rounds of draft capital on these two other backs.

And so the Jets are continuing to Jet. And since your average FF'er knows that the Jets are radioactive, they stay away. It's not like Breece is going in the second and Allen too late. Breece is sinking like a dunked witch in Salem and nobody's touching Braelon because nobody thinks they'll do right by the best back, and even if they did the offense would stink so badly that there's no real juice. It'll make for good banging football, but not for wins and stat counts. It just won't.

So Braelon seemingly goes way too late. And if I had to guess, I'd say the Jets screw up each of the three backs. They'll get it wrong. Because it's a garbage organization headed by a billion dollar nepo baby that lets his kid make personnel decisions from Madden.

I'm so out on all these guys. I feel bad for Breece. I feel bad for Braelon and Isaiah Davis. I'm just ornery writing about it, so please pardon me a bit.

I like Braelon Allen a lot by the way. Dude is huge and fast and he just trucks people but this year he's number 2 in a committe from what I can see. Maybe next year he gets his big chance with Breece Hall going to another team maybe.

I think Allen has a future. I'm also biased because I roster Breece in dynasty but up until he tore his ACL (which was the only time since 2003 that the result of a sporting event has ruined a day and left me sick and nauseated) he was one of the best I'd ever seen. Now, you have to understand that baseball was my main sport from the time I graduated college in 1997 up until 2011 and I followed it like I follow football now, which means I missed the day-to-day in football for a decade and a half and you had A Pete, LaDanian Tomlinson, and a host of others I don't have a frame of reference for. But yeah, it was Breece and he played for my team and he was on my main magic football squad. It was awesome. I was absolutely rapt on draft day when Joe Douglas traded a fifth to move right in front of Houston by one spot to draft him—and I knew as soon as the trade flashed on the screen why the Jets had traded and who they were taking; and I held the dynasty 1.01 that year so I could barely contain myself. I just . . . was stunned in the way like when things are absolutely perfect one sunny day when you're enthralled with your hobby. **** just seemed right.

And now this.

 

[rockaction]

Like, I held him and am holding him. Don't deceptively edit and say I said to sell him. I'm holidng and have held against industry advice and you're asserting that I told people to not draft or to sell him somehoiw?

This is dated Sept. 9th at FantasyPros

Players to Buy Low & Sell High in Week 2 (2025 Fantasy Football)

Get Week 2 fantasy football Buy Low and Sell High trade advice from our Featured Pros. Find out which players to target and which to flip.

www.fantasypros.com

Breece Hall (RB – NYJ)​

“My favorite sell-high candidate is Breece Hall. I was one of his biggest fans coming into this year, and I think he’ll be phenomenal moving forward. With that being said, after his Week 1 performance, he may have an RB1 price tag on him. Getting that for a guy you drafted in the third or fourth round is just too good to pass up in my opinion.”
– Trevor Land (FlurrySports)

“Members of the Breece Hall Fan Club are taking victory laps after Hall had 19-107-0 rushing and 2-38-0 receiving in Week 1, but concerns about Hall’s usage remain. Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis rotated in behind Hall, and it was Allen who scored on an 8-yard TD run when the Jets’ offense got inside the green zone early in the second quarter. If you have adequate RB depth and need WR help, see if you can trade Hall for a receiver with a similar ADP, such as Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Marvin Harrison, Mike Evans or Terry McLaurin.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)

By the way, you saying that what I said about Breece in zone schemes vs, gap is wrong? PFF agrees! Holy smoke, dude.

Oh my God. Dude, find a hole and crawl into it. That's both Ryan Heath of Fantasy Points and Pro Football Focus that both say the same thing! Dude! LOLOOO

Breece Hall | New York Jets HB | NFL and PFF stats

NFL and PFF player stats for New York Jets HB Breece Hall on Pro Football Focus.

www.pff.com

"Hall’s fantasy production decreased from 17.1 PPR points per game to 15.1 PPR points per game, primarily due to a decrease in target rate from 28.8% to 19.5%. That is unlikely to bounce back with Justin Fields as the quarterback.
•
Hall plays notably better on gap runs compared to zone, finishing with 5.6 yards per carry on gap runs and 3.7 on zone. The Jets' new offensive coordinator, Tanner Engstrand, comes from the Detroit Lions, who had the sixth-highest rate of using zone runs last season.
•
Hall was the subject of trade rumors during the draft. New head coach Aaron Glenn said they plan on using all three running backs, and the coaches come from the Lions, who used a committee in the past. This all suggests a decrease in Hall's playing time this season."

 

[electric Ape]

I don’t have a lot of posts in this thread. All I’ve done is tell people the anti-Breece Hall stats you posted were dubious and should be ignored and I told people that I was drafting Hall at ADP and that I recommend others do also. Wouldn’t that be the kind of helpful fantasy info that would prevent people from losing money by taking your bad stats seriously and help them win money by drafting Breece Hall at a value? Here I thought I was being a good friend to the fantasy community by rooting out misinformation and by passing along much better info but according to you I’m a terrible meanie who can only do wrong

 

[rockaction]

Oh my God, I can't believe this. You said you "invited me to watch tape"????

You never asked me to do that! Dude, don't ever bother me again. You're so ridiculous that it's hilarioius.

Go argue with Fantasy Points. Then argue with the guy at the company that sell scouting information to college programs and pro teams! LOL.

 

[rockaction]

I don’t have a lot of posts in this thread. All I’ve done is tell people the anti-Breece Hall stats you posted were dubious and should be ignored and I told people that I was drafting Hall at ADP and that I recommend others do also. Wouldn’t that be the kind of helpful fantasy info that would prevent people from losing money by taking your bad stats seriously and help them win money by drafting Breece Hall at a value? Here I thought I was being a good friend to the fantasy community by rooting out misinformation and by passing along much better info but according to you I’m a terrible meanie who can only do wrong

And guess what? Those stats came from Pro Football Focus and Fantasy Points. See upthread a post or two. It's exactly what I said. Do you know who PFF employs??? Oh my God. People should trust you over PFF, Fantasy Points, and me! That's awesome. Do you have any other tricks or suggestions?

They said the same thing.

You're just dead wrong, and I was completely right, which I told you I was (dead right, that is) and to leave me alone!

So leave me alone!

 

[rockaction]

And I posted the PFF link, which isn't even behind a paywall. Would you like me to find the Fantasy Points author and link? It's Ryan Heath. Nah, **** that.

You've now wasted four or five solid hours of my time just being ****ing wrong and being a ****ing obdurate idiot. You can find it on X/Twitter

Here it is, actually. Below it is the PFF one.

https://x.com/FantasyPtsData/status/1947715716204892339

Breece Hall | New York Jets HB | NFL and PFF stats

NFL and PFF player stats for New York Jets HB Breece Hall on Pro Football Focus.

www.pff.com

Do me a favor in the future. Don't stop by or say hi. And try not to be so sure of yourself, arrogant, and a time suck on others in the future.

 

[rockaction]

lol. You're back. The only internet-appropriate thing to do is to lurk or keep arguing, I guess. Because I think I'm the only idiot that says mea culpa, I'm sorry, I was the jerk, I was the *******. I do and a few otrhers do. But I don't expect that of you, bro. Keep it real in the field. Peace.

 

[electric Ape]

You are having what is known as a meltdown, friend. Pause. Take time to breathe. Fantasy football is only a game based around another game. When you admit that other people’s posts are making you “infuriated” that is a clear sign to step away for a bit and focus on your wellbeing. Almost nothing in the world should ever have the power to penetrate your inner temple and move your emotions to fury and certainly fantasy football never should. I sincerely wish you wellness and inner peace

 

[ConstruxBoy]

sigh

 

[rockaction]

You are having what is known as a meltdown, friend. Pause. Take time to breathe. Fantasy football is only a game based around another game. When you admit that other people’s posts are making you “infuriated” that is a clear sign to step away for a bit and focus on your wellbeing. Almost nothing in the world should ever have the power to penetrate your inner temple and move your emotions to fury and certainly fantasy football never should. I sincerely wish you wellness and inner peace

No, I'm not having a meltdown. You said I was wrong about a very specific issue and you wasted six hours of my time arguing about it. And now you're just wrong. It was over a specific claim about Breece Hall's success in zone schemes vs. man. You're gaslighting me now and pointing to my emotional state. Funny, but you're actually doing this, and gentle reader, this is what this cynical guy is doing. Funny. It's called argumentum ad personam and it's an ad hominem informal logical fallacy.

Thread 'Argumentum Ad Personam - An Explanation of the Fallacy and Its Tactical Use'

Aug 3, 2025

If you participate in online communities or public debate, you might have noticed a type of response that occurs often these days. It starts with a phrase like the ones below. Each one is ostensibly an observation that posits that there is some sort of behavioral problem with a speaker or writer who is advancing a particular argument or even just discussing an issue. The speaker is met with something like one of these phrases by a person (let's call them the interlocutor) who says something like:

• “Why do you care?”
• “Y U MAD”
• “You seem upset.”
• “You're only saying that...

• rockaction
• Replies: 55
• Forum: Footballguys Free For All

• 

 

[rockaction]

sigh

No, wait, ConstruxBoy. This guy started debating a subject and sent me with the burden of proof all over the place to prove my point but he did it condescendingly and arrogantly. It took a total of six hours, but I found the citations and they're two separate places confirming. I'm correct and he's going to try and claim that somehow this is okay to do because I'm mad he wasted six hours of my time and life.

No, it's not okay.

This guy just tried to gaslight me.

 

[rockaction]

Yeah, I thought about this.

This was your contention, in print.

Just for a fan of football, not even a football person, would it make sense that Breece Hall is wildly better at power gap running than on zone concept runs? Is he more of a big physical one cut runner or is he more of a patient, finesse runner who uses vision to set up his blockers? Unless you disregard the consensus of the entire NFL scouting community this result set is counterintuitive. Sometimes data can disprove a subjective human bias and provide a breakthrough in understanding. It’s possible that this has happened here but probably not likely.

And the data says, yes, it would sense. PFF points out that Breece in man gap is two yards per carry better than Breece in zone

per PFF: "Hall plays notably better on gap runs compared to zone, finishing with 5.6 yards per carry on gap runs and 3.7 on zone. The Jets' new offensive coordinator, Tanner Engstrand, comes from the Detroit Lions, who had the sixth-highest rate of using zone runs last season."

Breece Hall | New York Jets HB | NFL and PFF stats

NFL and PFF player stats for New York Jets HB Breece Hall on Pro Football Focus.

www.pff.com

Here's the second source by Ryan Heath, Fantasy Points, This ays that Breece is the best man gap runner in football and the 37th-best zone concept runner.

RB Leaders in YPC on Man/Gap Concept Runs+ 2022-2024, min. 120 such runs,

@FantasyPtsData
1. Breece Hall (5.65)2. JK Dobbins (5.44)3. James Cook (5.25)4. Aaron Jones (5.23)...47. Alexander Mattison (3.29)

RB Leaders in YPC on Zone Concept Runs+ 2022-2024, min. 120 such runs,

@FantasyPtsData
1. Jahmyr Gibbs (6.02)2. Raheem Mostert (5.25)3. Derrick Henry (5.14)4. Christian McCaffrey (4.96)...37. Breece Hall (3.73)

And now I'm done. You put me through all that and said my emotions were the problem?

No, man. You're out of line.

 

[rockaction]

This would normally would have me angry, but as emotional as I can get, I think there's something deeply, deeply wrong with you. Peace.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

But does it matter. Who the heck is HE?
Don't let it bother you. I don't let it bother me when you mock me.

 

[King of the Jungle]

Sometimes the best reaction is no reaction. Learning to walk away before it consumes the thread helps make this a more enjoyable place to hang.

 

[rockaction]

But does it matter. Who the heck is HE?
Don't let it bother you. I don't let it bother me when you mock me.

I get it. Please hear me out. I'm not angry anymore. I tried all along to explain to everyone else why I wasn't engaging, but I also wanted to make clear that I thought I was both right and that I also got the feeling he was arguing in bad faith just to maoe me look bad and to **** on the board. But it wasn't just that. He was a charlatan and if you look at his posts, he's steering people factually wrong and they're both believing a falsehood and thereby undermining themselves, but they're (and I'll admit it) personally rejecting my efforts and then explaining to me why my data and explanation is incorrect. It's weird to have that sort of "you're wrong and mistaken" talk directed at you when you're clearly right.

It's weird. I'll drop it now. That took now seven-plus hours out of my life.

It's over.

 

[rockaction]

And he's gone. I need to handle that better so that I can get my point across without it taking up a full day. I actually do care about this stuff and it matters to me. Maybe I need to not care so much. Peace.

 

[oswizzle]

So after all that … we can agree Breece Hall looked pretty good last week and was legit value for his ADP …. Cliff Notes … sparring anyone else having to go back and read through that ranting

 

[Runkle]

Please don't now clog up this thread with discussion about philosophers that have been dead for 200 years. Again.

 

[FarFromHome]

Analytics are interesting, but I always just use my eyes. My eyes tell me Hall has elite rb skills. The big concern was gonna be his usage with Allen being decent. After a big first week I'm still not convinced Hall is the workhorse rb. Would we be completely surprised if both rbs get the same amount of touches this week?

 

[BespokeJort]

Analytics are interesting, but I always just use my eyes. My eyes tell me Hall has elite rb skills. The big concern was gonna be his usage with Allen being decent. After a big first week I'm still not convinced Hall is the workhorse rb. Would we be completely surprised if both rbs get the same amount of touches this week?

I mean, I would

 

[rockaction]

Analytics are interesting, but I always just use my eyes. My eyes tell me Hall has elite rb skills. The big concern was gonna be his usage with Allen being decent. After a big first week I'm still not convinced Hall is the workhorse rb. Would we be completely surprised if both rbs get the same amount of touches this week?

See, that was the problem with what that guy did. It wasn’t analytics. It was film. It was whether it was a zone blocking concept or a man gap blocking concept. Once they figured out which one it was, then they just did YPC for each blocking scheme. No analytics. At all.

That guy got in everybody’s head about basic stuff. That wasn’t right of him.

 

[rockaction]

And Breece was close to even in snaps last game at 58% so look out.

 

[steelwind]

So Breece gets the Bills run D who is dead last in the NFL…WITH DT Ed Oliver.

But now Oliver, who DNP Wed + today, is in a walking boot and moving around the locker room on a medical scooter. What was already a plus matchup on paper gets even better if Oliver is inactive.
https://x.com/agetzenberg/status/1966192058118631447

 

[the moops]

And Breece was close to even in snaps last game at 58% so look out.

In 2023 when Breece Hall was the #2 fantasy back, he had a 61% snap rate

 

[rockaction]

So Breece gets the Bills run D who is dead last in the NFL…WITH DT Ed Oliver.

But now Oliver, who DNP Wed + today, is in a walking boot and moving around the locker room on a medical scooter. What was already a plus matchup on paper gets even better if Oliver is inactive.
https://x.com/agetzenberg/status/1966192058118631447

IDP doesn’t mean you’re doing well necessarily but sometimes it does. Oliver scored like thirty points against the Ravens. He was Buffalo’s playmaker that night. Maybe the Jets catch a break.

 

[rockaction]

And Breece was close to even in snaps last game at 58% so look out.

In 2023 when Breece Hall was the #2 fantasy back, he had a 61% snap rate

I did not know that. Thanks. Breece had a veritable plethora of explosive plays that year. Like a whole lot. That probably accounts for the seeming discrepancy.

 

[steelwind]

So Breece gets the Bills run D who is dead last in the NFL…WITH DT Ed Oliver.

But now Oliver, who DNP Wed + today, is in a walking boot and moving around the locker room on a medical scooter. What was already a plus matchup on paper gets even better if Oliver is inactive.
https://x.com/agetzenberg/status/1966192058118631447

IDP doesn’t mean you’re doing well necessarily but sometimes it does. Oliver scored like thirty points against the Ravens. He was Buffalo’s playmaker that night. Maybe the Jets catch a break.

Huh?

 

[rockaction]

So Breece gets the Bills run D who is dead last in the NFL…WITH DT Ed Oliver.

But now Oliver, who DNP Wed + today, is in a walking boot and moving around the locker room on a medical scooter. What was already a plus matchup on paper gets even better if Oliver is inactive.
https://x.com/agetzenberg/status/1966192058118631447

IDP doesn’t mean you’re doing well necessarily but sometimes it does. Oliver scored like thirty points against the Ravens. He was Buffalo’s playmaker that night. Maybe the Jets catch a break.

Huh?

IDP is a type of fantasy roster. It stands for "independent defensive players" and those individual defensive players (that you pick) score points just like your offensive guys do. We play with nine offensive and nine defensive players. There are three guys on the defensive line, at least one DT and one DE. Ed Oliver is a DT and he scored a ****-ton of points in IDP last week. He had 6 tackles, 3 tackles for losses, a forced fumble, and a sack. My league is defensive tackle premium so he got thirty points for that outstanding defensive performance.

3 DLs, 3 LBs, 3 DBs

 

[steelwind]

So Breece gets the Bills run D who is dead last in the NFL…WITH DT Ed Oliver.

But now Oliver, who DNP Wed + today, is in a walking boot and moving around the locker room on a medical scooter. What was already a plus matchup on paper gets even better if Oliver is inactive.
https://x.com/agetzenberg/status/1966192058118631447

IDP doesn’t mean you’re doing well necessarily but sometimes it does. Oliver scored like thirty points against the Ravens. He was Buffalo’s playmaker that night. Maybe the Jets catch a break.

Huh?

IDP is independent defensive players in fantasy. It's when you have defensive guys in your scoring. Ed Oliver had a ****-ton of points in IDP last week. He had 6 tackles, 3 tackles for losses, a forced fumble, and a sack. My league is defensive tackle premium so he got thirty points for that outstanding defensive performance.

I know what IDP is. What does that have to do with Breece’s matchup?

 

[rockaction]

So Breece gets the Bills run D who is dead last in the NFL…WITH DT Ed Oliver.

But now Oliver, who DNP Wed + today, is in a walking boot and moving around the locker room on a medical scooter. What was already a plus matchup on paper gets even better if Oliver is inactive.
https://x.com/agetzenberg/status/1966192058118631447

IDP doesn’t mean you’re doing well necessarily but sometimes it does. Oliver scored like thirty points against the Ravens. He was Buffalo’s playmaker that night. Maybe the Jets catch a break.

Huh?

IDP is independent defensive players in fantasy. It's when you have defensive guys in your scoring. Ed Oliver had a ****-ton of points in IDP last week. He had 6 tackles, 3 tackles for losses, a forced fumble, and a sack. My league is defensive tackle premium so he got thirty points for that outstanding defensive performance.

I know what IDP is. What does that have to do with Breece’s matchup?

That the DT that just had the monstrous thirty-point fantasy game because he was all over the place and destoying the Baltimore line won't be destroying the Jets' line if he's hurt.

That seems like a quick inference to make. Maybe not. Does that make sense?

 

[Faust]

Jacob Gibbs
Breece Hall in the first half:

+ 75% snap rate
+ 7 of 8 RB rush attempts

Hall had a 58% snap rate in Week 1

https://x.com/jagibbs_23/status/1967294868914655560?s=61

 

[rockaction]

This is a really good look at Breece before the season.

One thing that Jahnke makes a big deal out of here is exactly what eletric Ape and I had our kerfuffle about.

Fantasy Football 2025: RB Breece Hall player profile

Nathan Jahnke breaks down New York Jets running back Breece Hall's 2025 fantasy football player profile.

www.pff.com

"Despite some up-and-down play, at times, his career 3.4 yards after contact per attempt are the best among running backs over the last three seasons. He has one of the more extreme splits in how well he plays during perfectly blocked runs compared to not, going from 8.6 yards per attempt to 3.0. The problem is that he’s seen fewer perfectly blocked runs than most backs. He also has a very extreme split, playing better on gap runs than zone, but he’s run more zone plays"

PFF notes he averages 5.6 YPC in a gap scheme but 3.7 in a zone scheme. The zone scheme is what he's run 56% of the time while he's run gap scheme 43.8% of the time.

In the bullet points that summarize Breece's fantasy situation before the meat of the article, PFF says this:

• Breece Hall’s ceiling is a top-five fantasy running back: Hall’s combination of rushing in the right situations and receiving gives him a high ceiling, which he reached in 2023.
• A lot is working against him with the New York Jets: From the new offensive coordinator to the new quarterback to the backups and offensive line, a lot of Hall’s situation isn’t ideal for him to be successful in fantasy leagues if he stays in New York.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

This is a really good look at Breece before the season.

One thing that Jahnke makes a big deal out of here is exactly what eletric Ape and I had our kerfuffle about.

Fantasy Football 2025: RB Breece Hall player profile

Nathan Jahnke breaks down New York Jets running back Breece Hall's 2025 fantasy football player profile.

www.pff.com

"Despite some up-and-down play, at times, his career 3.4 yards after contact per attempt are the best among running backs over the last three seasons. He has one of the more extreme splits in how well he plays during perfectly blocked runs compared to not, going from 8.6 yards per attempt to 3.0. The problem is that he’s seen fewer perfectly blocked runs than most backs. He also has a very extreme split, playing better on gap runs than zone, but he’s run more zone plays"

PFF notes he averages 5.6 YPC in a gap scheme but 3.7 in a zone scheme. The zone scheme is what he's run 56% of the time while he's run gap scheme 43.8% of the time.

In the bullet points that summarize Breece's fantasy situation before the meat of the article, PFF says this:

• Breece Hall’s ceiling is a top-five fantasy running back: Hall’s combination of rushing in the right situations and receiving gives him a high ceiling, which he reached in 2023.
• A lot is working against him with the New York Jets: From the new offensive coordinator to the new quarterback to the backups and offensive line, a lot of Hall’s situation isn’t ideal for him to be successful in fantasy leagues if he stays in New York.

Really good stuff. Sounds like Breece will massively benefit from a change of scenery IF he finds the right new home.

 

[rockaction]

This is a really good look at Breece before the season.

One thing that Jahnke makes a big deal out of here is exactly what eletric Ape and I had our kerfuffle about.

Fantasy Football 2025: RB Breece Hall player profile

Nathan Jahnke breaks down New York Jets running back Breece Hall's 2025 fantasy football player profile.

www.pff.com

"Despite some up-and-down play, at times, his career 3.4 yards after contact per attempt are the best among running backs over the last three seasons. He has one of the more extreme splits in how well he plays during perfectly blocked runs compared to not, going from 8.6 yards per attempt to 3.0. The problem is that he’s seen fewer perfectly blocked runs than most backs. He also has a very extreme split, playing better on gap runs than zone, but he’s run more zone plays"

PFF notes he averages 5.6 YPC in a gap scheme but 3.7 in a zone scheme. The zone scheme is what he's run 56% of the time while he's run gap scheme 43.8% of the time.

In the bullet points that summarize Breece's fantasy situation before the meat of the article, PFF says this:

• Breece Hall’s ceiling is a top-five fantasy running back: Hall’s combination of rushing in the right situations and receiving gives him a high ceiling, which he reached in 2023.
• A lot is working against him with the New York Jets: From the new offensive coordinator to the new quarterback to the backups and offensive line, a lot of Hall’s situation isn’t ideal for him to be successful in fantasy leagues if he stays in New York.

Really good stuff. Sounds like Breece will massively benefit from a change of scenery IF he finds the right new home.

He could, but I'd be awfully wary. The best that I can tell is that Breece is one tough cookie, but he is banged up a lot and he loses his burst when it happens. Problem is, you generally won't know it. I don't honestly know how much is in his tank. I generally throw cold water on the guys I roster or love, so also take me with a grain of salt. My pessimism bleeds and spreads its crimson tide all over the place.

I do not see the Breece that I saw in '22, and it's a bummer. But he's still pretty damn awesome. He leads the league in percentage of runs that are "Explosive Runs," where explosive is defined as:

Explosive %: Percent of rushing plays that were in the top 10 percentile of yards gained

Of guys with 25 attempts, Breece is still tops with 15.38% of runs counting as explosive. Then it's Dobbins with 14.04%, Henry with 12.24%, Gainwell with 11.43% and you get the picture.

If you make it 50 attempts, it goes Breece at 15.38%, Dobbins with 14.04%, Walker with 10.34% and Jeanty with 10.29% and then it goes under ten. It's pretty remarkable.

NFL Running Back Stats | SumerSports

Compare RBs by EPA, success rate, yards after contact, explosive run %, and more. Go beyond basic rushing yards.

sumersports.com

 

[Faust]

Connor Hughes
#Jets RB Breece Hall posts on Instagram to “Free 20.”

Hall is a hot name on the NFL’s trade circuit.

Talked to a half dozen front office sources late last week for @SNYtv pregame. Their consensus on his value: Fifth round pick, potential for fourth if two teams compete for him.

One GM when I asked about a third: “Way, way too rich.”

An AGM on why his value isn’t higher: Durability concerns, not consistent tough yardage, “rent a player.” Hall is on final year of deal. Acquiring team then needs to pay him = drops value.

https://x.com/connor_j_hughes/status/1977891855527211277?s=61

 

[Dizzy]

Connor Hughes
#Jets RB Breece Hall posts on Instagram to “Free 20.”

Hall is a hot name on the NFL’s trade circuit.

Talked to a half dozen front office sources late last week for @SNYtv pregame. Their consensus on his value: Fifth round pick, potential for fourth if two teams compete for him.

One GM when I asked about a third: “Way, way too rich.”

An AGM on why his value isn’t higher: Durability concerns, not consistent tough yardage, “rent a player.” Hall is on final year of deal. Acquiring team then needs to pay him = drops value.

https://x.com/connor_j_hughes/status/1977891855527211277?s=61

Breece would look good in a Chargers uni.

 

[FarFromHome]

First off, I think Hall has the ability to be a top tier elite rb. Has all the tools. Stud. Having said that I agree with the above tweet. Why would a team give up anything for a rb with durabilty issues on the final year of contract? Just bad math. I get my sports mixed up. Can a team sign him then trade for him? My opinion is that if they do move him, it would simply be to be rid of him and lose games for #1 pick.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

First off I think Hall has the ability to a top tier elite rb. Has all the tools. Stud. Having said that I agree with the above tweet. Why would a team give up anything for a rb with durabilty issues on the final year of contract? Just bad math. I get my sports mixed up. Can a team sign him then trade for him? My opinion is that if they do move him, it would simply be to be rid of him and lose games for #1 pick.

A team can — if the Jets agree — negotiate an extension with him and then trade for him. If that is what you were asking.

 

[dipandglide]

Tough matchup this week. He's been solid so far without scoring TDs. Imagine if he ends up on a quality offense and is semi-featured. He's a decent buy-low in both dynasty and redraft.

 

[Dizzy]

First off I think Hall has the ability to a top tier elite rb. Has all the tools. Stud. Having said that I agree with the above tweet. Why would a team give up anything for a rb with durabilty issues on the final year of contract? Just bad math. I get my sports mixed up. Can a team sign him then trade for him? My opinion is that if they do move him, it would simply be to be rid of him and lose games for #1 pick.

A "win now" play-off team that suddenly lost all options at RB might do it.

 

[menobrown]

Why would a team give up anything for a rb with durabilty issues on the final year of contract? Just bad math.

Honestly I think you are asking the wrong question.

If you read that tweet from Connor Hughes it says he asked about his trade value around the league and a GM told him a third was way to much, would need two teams to bid against one another to make it a 4th, if not it's a 5th.

Considering he's likely going to net them a comp pick back if they let him leave, Braelon Allen is months away from returning and the team would be down to Isaiah Davis and they can't pass. What's the point for the Jets? Keeping in mind just because you are not in the playoff race does not mean you don't have to try to put a product out there, build a foundation, not lose the lockeroom and/or your job.

On the other hand if they made him available a 4-5th round pick for a contending team that would then have the option to resign him or pick up the likely comp pick 27 makes all kinds of sense.

Other then that I don't see how you are labeling him as having durablity issues? One missed game since his ACL injury does not seem to fit to me.

I don't think they'd have a lack of suitors of they made him available, just not sure anyone would give up enough to make it worth it for the Jets.

 

[FBG Moderator]

Please never ever make jokes about bombing headquarters here.

 

[FGITLOTR]

At

Why would a team give up anything for a rb with durabilty issues on the final year of contract? Just bad math.

Honestly I think you are asking the wrong question.

If you read that tweet from Connor Hughes it says he asked about his trade value around the league and a GM told him a third was way to much, would need two teams to bid against one another to make it a 4th, if not it's a 5th.

Considering he's likely going to net them a comp pick back if they let him leave, Braelon Allen is months away from returning and the team would be down to Isaiah Davis and they can't pass. What's the point for the Jets? Keeping in mind just because you are not in the playoff race does not mean you don't have to try to put a product out there, build a foundation, not lose the lockeroom and/or your job.

On the other hand if they made him available a 4-5th round pick for a contending team that would then have the option to resign him or pick up the likely comp pick 27 makes all kinds of sense.

Other then that I don't see how you are labeling him as having durablity issues? One missed game since his ACL injury does not seem to fit to me.

I don't think they'd have a lack of suitors of they made him available, just not sure anyone would give up enough to make it worth it for the Jets.

great post! I laugh at people that say he has durability issues--he will play lights out on a decent team and needs a change of scenery--I don't know if he's elite, but is certainly close.

 

[Uncle Leo]

Yeah, anything less than a 3rd round pick is robbery. This is not Devin Singletary we are talking about. This is a young dynamic running back.

 

[FarFromHome]

At

Why would a team give up anything for a rb with durabilty issues on the final year of contract? Just bad math.

Honestly I think you are asking the wrong question.

If you read that tweet from Connor Hughes it says he asked about his trade value around the league and a GM told him a third was way to much, would need two teams to bid against one another to make it a 4th, if not it's a 5th.

Considering he's likely going to net them a comp pick back if they let him leave, Braelon Allen is months away from returning and the team would be down to Isaiah Davis and they can't pass. What's the point for the Jets? Keeping in mind just because you are not in the playoff race does not mean you don't have to try to put a product out there, build a foundation, not lose the lockeroom and/or your job.

On the other hand if they made him available a 4-5th round pick for a contending team that would then have the option to resign him or pick up the likely comp pick 27 makes all kinds of sense.

Other then that I don't see how you are labeling him as having durablity issues? One missed game since his ACL injury does not seem to fit to me.

I don't think they'd have a lack of suitors of they made him available, just not sure anyone would give up enough to make it worth it for the Jets.

great post! I laugh at people that say he has durability issues--he will play lights out on a decent team and needs a change of scenery--I don't know if he's elite, but is certainly close.

I think the durabilty thing comes from him personally saying he played through 2024 with a "serious" knee injury. Add in his ACL injury his rookie year and I guess I can personally understand the label. It's his own words

 

[rockaction]

Why would a team give up anything for a rb with durabilty issues on the final year of contract? Just bad math.

Honestly I think you are asking the wrong question.

If you read that tweet from Connor Hughes it says he asked about his trade value around the league and a GM told him a third was way to much, would need two teams to bid against one another to make it a 4th, if not it's a 5th.

Considering he's likely going to net them a comp pick back if they let him leave, Braelon Allen is months away from returning and the team would be down to Isaiah Davis and they can't pass. What's the point for the Jets? Keeping in mind just because you are not in the playoff race does not mean you don't have to try to put a product out there, build a foundation, not lose the lockeroom and/or your job.

On the other hand if they made him available a 4-5th round pick for a contending team that would then have the option to resign him or pick up the likely comp pick 27 makes all kinds of sense.

Other then that I don't see how you are labeling him as having durablity issues? One missed game since his ACL injury does not seem to fit to me.

I don't think they'd have a lack of suitors of they made him available, just not sure anyone would give up enough to make it worth it for the Jets.

Connor Hughes said the GM said he had “durability concerns,” which might be what Far From Home is repeating.

That comp pick if they let him walk. First, a value is determined for Breece if he signs a new deal at the end of the 2025 season (he signs for and plays 2026). It is his new salary’s inverse rank order compared to all other salaries in 2026 + snap count percentage as two-digit number + any All-Pro or PFW awards (all-Pro is 20 points and the PFW award is 5 points added). That gives you a number that will be used to determine the round of the pick. But that doesn’t mean you get the pick just because he leaves. If the Jets sign as many free agents of comparable value as free agents who have left and gotten them picks they are owed, there is no pick coming to them. It nets out. If they sign seven fifth-round value free agents, and seven have walked that would have gotten them fifth-round picks, they don’t get any picks. If they don’t sign as many free agents of value as walk from their team, then the remaining picks of unequal value are the ones left standing. There are only a total of 32 comp picks awarded each year and those are awarded to the teams with the players of the highest value, and no more than four to a team.

Hall is likely to be, at best, a fifth-round value. James Cook and Kyren Williams are fifth-round value. The only two RBs that are fourth-round value this year would be Saquon and McCaffrey. But you have to compare his new contract to the 2026 salary distribution.

This is from Reddit.

"Free agency moves running backs on from their initial team to a team with cap space to spend. Mechanically, that’s how the flow works - from teams that don’t want to re-sign a running back for whatever reason or can’t afford to re-sign to a new team that has the cap space to sign the FA running back.

Let’s look at a decade of comp picks for RBs.

(2015 FA) 2016 Draft picks- Shane Vereen - 6th round comp pick.

(2016 FA) 2017 Draft picks - Lamar Miller - 5th round comp pick.

(2017 FA) 2018 Draft picks - Adrian Peterson - 6th round comp pick,l. Latavius Murray - 6th round draft pick. Eddie Lacey - 6th round draft pick.

(2018 FA) 2019 Draft picks - Dion Lewis - 6th round comp pick

(2019 FA) 2020 Draft picks - no rb comp picks

(2020 FA) 2021 Draft picks - no rb comp picks

(2021 FA) 2022 Draft picks - Kenyan Drake - 6th round comp pick. Jamaal Williams - 7th round comp pick.

(2022 FA) 2023 Draft picks - Chase Edmonds - 6th round comp pick.

(2023 FA) 2024 Draft picks - no rb comp picks

(2024 FA) 2025 Draft picks - Tony Pollard - 6th round comp pick.

That’s it. 10 years. 10 comp picks. 1 5th round comp pick. 8 6th round comp picks. 1 7th round comp pick.” - some dude on Reddit