RB Breece Hall, NYJ (2 Viewers)

[rockaction]

Gah. Awful news for Hall owners. Did some reading today. Ryan Heath of Fantasy Points was letting go of some free material. I found this information. This is brutal and I urge you all to look at it. Ugly. YPC is a flawed stat but this shows the difference between Breece’s YPC when running a zone concept and when he’s running man/gap concept. It’s mind bottling. Anybody reprinting or restating should cite Ryan Heath. He deserves it. The new play callers are running zone concept. There’s a two-yard difference for Hall, and it ain’t in the good way.

https://x.com/FantasyPtsData/status/1947715716204892339

So often these kinds of advanced analytics are dropped on the FF community like oracles of pure truth and so often they are garbage. I would advise all to be skeptical of any such study unless you fully understand the data and have full trust in its author. My livelihood is in charting complex and chaotic systems and using that work to build predictive models and almost always when I deep dive into these modern NFL analytics they are sloppy and terrible. Accurately charting football plays is super time consuming and requires lots of real football savvy and a highly trained eye and the people who make such studies are often closer to football tourists than true football professionals. When such a stat is produced almost nobody ever scrutinizes it, it just gets passed around like catnip for the lazy. I will openly state that I have not deep dived this Hall breakdown and it could be a careful and accurate study. But based on a lot of history and the basic sniff test I have questions about its quality.

Just for a fan of football, not even a football person, would it make sense that Breece Hall is wildly better at power gap running than on zone concept runs? Is he more of a big physical one cut runner or is he more of a patient, finesse runner who uses vision to set up his blockers? Unless you disregard the consensus of the entire NFL scouting community this result set is counterintuitive. Sometimes data can disprove a subjective human bias and provide a breakthrough in understanding. It’s possible that this has happened here but probably not likely.

Here's just one example of many on how these stats fail: what happens if on two of the power gap runs in the sample a key defender slipped and fell down in an unforced error allowing huge gains and this didn’t happen on any of the zone runs? Most of these models have no way of properly accounting for the true chaos of a football play which quite often leads to false signals and misleading results.

Sorry this got so long. I just see a huge blind spot in the fantasy community that gets passed along as wisdom and I try to comment on it where I can. Moving to more actionable commentary I’d say like others that I see some bad omens for Breece Hall this season in terms of snaps played and passing game usage projections. And the team knows the player better than we do so if they are talking about reducing his workload that should not be completely ignored. With all the bad juju, if folks are down on him or have him on the avoid list I think that’s reasonable. My eye tells me even after the injury Hall is still playing at a pretty high level, I just don’t see a player who is washed. In drafts I don’t mind making a bet on ability and taking Hall where he is sliding. There is reduced effectiveness risk and usage risk but Hall has gotten cheap enough where taking him still feels +EV to me. Even in the nightmare scenario where he’s lost half a step and he’s stuck in a full share with Allen with Davis sprinkled in, Hall is not priced wildly off his floor and he’d have contingent upside in unexpected scenarios like an Allen injury or a trade.

Yeah, I’ve taken that all into account and watched more Breece Hall and read tea leaves probably more than anyone here. I never blindly use analytics. Last time I got a long-winded lecture that everybody loved was when I warned people off of Clyde Edwards-Helaire because of those newfangled analytics and that thing they called speed score. Somebody posted your argument almost verbatim. Oh! How the masses cheered.

Would you like an update on that?

This was the post. Then the anti-analytics deluge came. And oh by the way, this isn’t even really quant stuff we’re talking about. It’s film work. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Post in thread 'RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC'
https://forums.footballguys.com/threads/rb-clyde-edwards-helaire-kc.782192/post-22746944

If you looked at the part about Hall that said “minimum 120 carries” that should have sent alarm bells not just ringing but utterly doing a cacophony thing. It renders your busted play irrelevant. Any complaints you are making are problems with the YPC stat itself. Anyway, this info isn’t just telling you to wake up, it’s announcing it like hearkened angels.

eta* I have Breece in my main league. He was my 2022 1.01 rookie pick I deliberately traded up for even before I knew he would be on my favorite pro team. You don’t think I’ve analyzed this to death and wished for a different result? My dear man . . .

eta2* I also can’t stress enough how seriously I take your objection. I would have intuitively thought the exact thing about zone and man. I don’t know. Fantasy Points has a guy that just won a huge, two or three million dollar best ball tourney. Every guy I follow there on Twitter has an unreal track record (in my head). I’ve kept track of guys on Twitter for years now. They’re clearly one of the best. I’m willing to cede a bit to what they’re saying. I think they’re correct here. The difference is staggering and too great to be explained away by mere statistical noise. It’s either totally wrong or we need to make it a serious data point for consideration.

Also, I write forcefully but would rather you be right about this one. My season hinges on Breece. Finals three years running with a championship. I’d like to make it four and two. Hey Breece, LFG!

 

[electric Ape]

Gah. Awful news for Hall owners. Did some reading today. Ryan Heath of Fantasy Points was letting go of some free material. I found this information. This is brutal and I urge you all to look at it. Ugly. YPC is a flawed stat but this shows the difference between Breece’s YPC when running a zone concept and when he’s running man/gap concept. It’s mind bottling. Anybody reprinting or restating should cite Ryan Heath. He deserves it. The new play callers are running zone concept. There’s a two-yard difference for Hall, and it ain’t in the good way.

https://x.com/FantasyPtsData/status/1947715716204892339

So often these kinds of advanced analytics are dropped on the FF community like oracles of pure truth and so often they are garbage. I would advise all to be skeptical of any such study unless you fully understand the data and have full trust in its author. My livelihood is in charting complex and chaotic systems and using that work to build predictive models and almost always when I deep dive into these modern NFL analytics they are sloppy and terrible. Accurately charting football plays is super time consuming and requires lots of real football savvy and a highly trained eye and the people who make such studies are often closer to football tourists than true football professionals. When such a stat is produced almost nobody ever scrutinizes it, it just gets passed around like catnip for the lazy. I will openly state that I have not deep dived this Hall breakdown and it could be a careful and accurate study. But based on a lot of history and the basic sniff test I have questions about its quality.

Just for a fan of football, not even a football person, would it make sense that Breece Hall is wildly better at power gap running than on zone concept runs? Is he more of a big physical one cut runner or is he more of a patient, finesse runner who uses vision to set up his blockers? Unless you disregard the consensus of the entire NFL scouting community this result set is counterintuitive. Sometimes data can disprove a subjective human bias and provide a breakthrough in understanding. It’s possible that this has happened here but probably not likely.

Here's just one example of many on how these stats fail: what happens if on two of the power gap runs in the sample a key defender slipped and fell down in an unforced error allowing huge gains and this didn’t happen on any of the zone runs? Most of these models have no way of properly accounting for the true chaos of a football play which quite often leads to false signals and misleading results.

Sorry this got so long. I just see a huge blind spot in the fantasy community that gets passed along as wisdom and I try to comment on it where I can. Moving to more actionable commentary I’d say like others that I see some bad omens for Breece Hall this season in terms of snaps played and passing game usage projections. And the team knows the player better than we do so if they are talking about reducing his workload that should not be completely ignored. With all the bad juju, if folks are down on him or have him on the avoid list I think that’s reasonable. My eye tells me even after the injury Hall is still playing at a pretty high level, I just don’t see a player who is washed. In drafts I don’t mind making a bet on ability and taking Hall where he is sliding. There is reduced effectiveness risk and usage risk but Hall has gotten cheap enough where taking him still feels +EV to me. Even in the nightmare scenario where he’s lost half a step and he’s stuck in a full share with Allen with Davis sprinkled in, Hall is not priced wildly off his floor and he’d have contingent upside in unexpected scenarios like an Allen injury or a trade.

Yeah, I’ve taken that all into account and watched more Breece Hall and read tea leaves probably more than anyone here. I never blindly use analytics. Last time I got a long-winded lecture that everybody loved was when I warned people off of Clyde Edwards-Helaire because of those newfangled analytics and that thing they called speed score. Somebody posted your argument almost verbatim. Oh! How the masses cheered.

Would you like an update on that?

This was the post. Then the anti-analytics deluge came. And oh by the way, this isn’t even really quant stuff we’re talking about. It’s film work. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Post in thread 'RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC'
https://forums.footballguys.com/threads/rb-clyde-edwards-helaire-kc.782192/post-22746944

If you looked at the part about Hall that said “minimum 120 carries” that should have sent alarm bells not just ringing but utterly doing a cacophony thing. It renders your busted play irrelevant. Any complaints you are making are problems with the YPC stat itself. Anyway, this info isn’t just telling you to wake up, it’s announcing it like hearkened angels.

eta* I have Breece in my main league. He was my 2022 1.01 rookie pick I deliberately traded up for even before I knew he would be on my favorite pro team. You don’t think I’ve analyzed this to death and wished for a different result? My dear man . . .

eta2* I also can’t stress enough how seriously I take your objection. I would have intuitively thought the exact thing about zone and man. I don’t know. Fantasy Points has a guy that just won a huge, two or three million dollar best ball tourney. Every guy I follow there on Twitter has an unreal track record (in my head). I’ve kept track of guys on Twitter for years now. They’re clearly one of the best. I’m willing to cede a bit to what they’re saying. I think they’re correct here. The difference is staggering and too great to be explained away by mere statistical noise. It’s either totally wrong or we need to make it a serious data point for consideration.

Also, I write forcefully but would rather you be right about this one. My season hinges on Breece. Finals three years running with a championship. I’d like to make it four and two. Hey Breece, LFG!

You posted some data that looked dubious and all I did was say that the data looked dubious and why. I’m attacking the data but trust me I’m not attacking you. All of us post here to bring each other up and win more money playing fantasy.

To me, a productive and valuable response to move the conversation forward would be to defend the quality of the data if such a defense is possible (which I see you did just do a little bit in your 2nd edit). If that isn’t possible I’d be curious about your film evaluation and what specifically you see on Hall’s tape that is troubling. It sounds like you’ve tracked Hall more closely than I have but I have seen a good bit of him.

In your reply you changed the subject to CEH a little bit so I went back and read the CEH thread. While I think your position on CEH was dead-on and damn near prophetic (at a time when few were taking that position), respectfully I think you are being a little loose in your comparison of that discussion to the Breece Hall discussion. In the CEH thread you made a correct case that CEH was an attribute outlier (size, speed, etc) which added risk to his profile and you accurately labelled him as overrated. Attribute-to-success analysis has been around for a long time and it isn’t particularly controversial, it’s quite proven in creating a risk profile for prospects. Folks are often a little too quick to trust the eye test or draft capital over the attribute risk profile (like they did with CEH) but everything you quoted there was sound science and clearly it led you to the right conclusion.

My issue with a lot of the modern analytics like the Hall blocking study is that they require subjectivity and a trained eye and rigorousness and often I find they aren’t conducted by serious people or they’re conducted sloppily or with bias. Like are we sure the blocking schemes were accurately graded on every play in that sample? Maybe they were, I can’t say. And then there’s the whole YPC can of worms which, in your defense, you acknowledged from the beginning. There are just a lot of things that can go wrong there. I’d be much more interested in a close assessment of Hall’s recent play by someone who understands football and understands football context, maybe that makes me old fashioned

 

[oswizzle]

I grabbed him in the 4th round from the 9th pick just now … pairing him up with Henry/Brown

 

[rockaction]

@electric Ape

Ah, I see. Very quickly about debate, argument, and what is productive or valuable because I think you're dead wrong about all of it and untoward, so I'll just lead with that.

First of all and quickly, I made the decision not to debate you (and any curious reader can read this and find out why and realize that I'm not writing this for you but for them). Me bringing up CEH isn't for the debate about Hall nor is it to convince you (a presumption that you made that is understandable but completely erroneous). It's there for the reader to show my track record. We are writing in a public forum making an argument. I'm doing that to establish competence in a relevant situation. Not to advance this particular debate or debate you at all because to do so would be impossible and I'll explain below.

I also brought up CEH because I see your sort of questioning tactic used in response to new data all the time and pointing to that thread is the best, most concrete example I have to refute that type of sealioning because refuting every new objection to data that isn't saturating the public well of knowledge is weeks of work for me. And I mean weeks. If I were to respond in-depth to everyone's objection to every new data point that I think is one to consider (for whatever reason) I'd waste days I don't have. And the grief I get for doing so is unrivaled. See the thread I linked to. Nobody reverses course or says, "Gee, you were right." Never. Not once. They simply dig deeper and then when proven wrong they simply move on. So I don't do it anymore. You listen to me or you don't, really. That's sad, but that's the nature of both debate and the internet.

So I'm done with the issue and I'm not ducking a request because I've been challenged. There are two things that pretty definitively slam the door shut on debating this under the terms you seem to be advancing. The first reason is the aforementioned time I'd have to spend. I am not compensated for this and this is social and informative for me. Right now I've spent over three hours on this topic and all it does is tax me. I'm not inclined to spend any more free (operative word) time under any stress. As a matter of fact, I'm definitely not going to. The second reason is that you already are bringing up the impossibility of observing something subjective and putting it into a category to quantify it a little better. So the methodology or how it's done doesn't matter, really. The whole design is flawed, according to you. It's a subjective judgment and the plays are so varied you can't account and . . . so on. So it's moot to begin with. I'm never convincing you of its validity or soundness.

And that leads me to this, and maybe you haven't realized the implications of your own argument. Why criticize both how I've answered you and the methodology if you think the whole thing can't be done properly in the first place? Just say you think the whole thing is bupkis and we can be done with it. But don't present a million objections when it's an absolutist position you hold. Don't send me down every rabbit hole to refute you. And please don't question my debating style or logical progression as if you set the terms of debate and then adjudicate them.

I really ****ing resent that. Dig?

I know what a logical fallacy is and most of the informal fallacies. Don't play upon that when people are looking for a shorthand way to help or a quick read. In fact, I'm always thinking about good arguments and what makes them. And then sometimes I see a tactic like yours and I'm caught debating whether it's that you're just unaware of what you're saying or whether it's bad faith. And I'll let the reader decide that. I think you're sealioning and throwing a bunch of questions out there when you've already got your ironclad position. And that's it for this debate on my end for the most part.

Thread 'Argumentum Ad Personam - An Explanation of the Fallacy and Its Tactical Use'

Aug 3, 2025

If you participate in online communities or public debate, you might have noticed a type of response that occurs often these days. It starts with a phrase like the ones below. Each one is ostensibly an observation that posits that there is some sort of behavioral problem with a speaker or writer who is advancing a particular argument or even just discussing an issue. The speaker is met with something like one of these phrases by a person (let's call them the interlocutor) who says something like:

• “Why do you care?”
• “Y U MAD”
• “You seem upset.”
• “You're only saying that...

• rockaction
• Replies: 55
• Forum: Footballguys Free For All

• 

 

[rockaction]

The more I think about the fact that I've just wasted at least three or so hours advancing this today alone has become infuriating and I want the reader to know that.

 

[greenmountaingoat]

Whoa

 

[greenmountaingoat]

I’m exhausted from skimming that.

Breece Hall. It’s really a round or two early but the upside is there so you got that going for you.

 

[mjb03003]

I still believe he’s a great buy low in dynasty because (I believe) he is destined to be traded to and/or sign with a new team that wants him to be their unquestioned lead back. He’ll be just 25 years old and he’ll probably get a 3 year deal and there will be a nice window of RB1 production in what is almost certainly to be a better offense (sorry Jets fans).

 

[rockaction]

I still believe he’s a great buy low in dynasty because (I believe) he is destined to be traded to and/or sign with a new team that wants him to be their unquestioned lead back. He’ll be just 25 years old and he’ll probably get a 3 year deal and there will be a nice window of RB1 production in what is almost certainly to be a better offense (sorry Jets fans).

I can totally get behind this. Let’s see if he has the burst he lacked last year (I think he was hurt or playing through serious pain).

 

[mjb03003]

I still believe he’s a great buy low in dynasty because (I believe) he is destined to be traded to and/or sign with a new team that wants him to be their unquestioned lead back. He’ll be just 25 years old and he’ll probably get a 3 year deal and there will be a nice window of RB1 production in what is almost certainly to be a better offense (sorry Jets fans).

I can totally get behind this. Let’s see if he has the burst he lacked last year (I think he was hurt or playing through serious pain).

I should add that the true low point for Breece Hall’s value may be later in this 2025 season, if he’s getting 10-12 touches a week in a full blown committee. If that does come to pass, he’ll be frustrated and posting cryptic tweets, maybe even demand a trade. You probably want to buy right before the trade demand because once people start dreaming of where he could be playing next his value will recover some.

 

[rockaction]

I still believe he’s a great buy low in dynasty because (I believe) he is destined to be traded to and/or sign with a new team that wants him to be their unquestioned lead back. He’ll be just 25 years old and he’ll probably get a 3 year deal and there will be a nice window of RB1 production in what is almost certainly to be a better offense (sorry Jets fans).

I can totally get behind this. Let’s see if he has the burst he lacked last year (I think he was hurt or playing through serious pain).

I should add that the true low point for Breece Hall’s value may be later in this 2025 season, if he’s getting 10-12 touches a week in a full blown committee. If that does come to pass, he’ll be frustrated and posting cryptic tweets, maybe even demand a trade. You probably want to buy right before the trade demand because once people start dreaming of where he could be playing next his value will recover some.

Unfortunately, you've probably got it right even down to the cryptic tweets. You know this cat. You also, IMO, are reading the tea leaves and seeing how the Jets year is going to go. I wish I had unbridled optimism and I take solace in the fact that things do often break in ways unforeseen. Perhaps he comes out of the gates charging and Glenn has no choice but to start him. Man, that would make my fantasy year. But everything from camp and nearly every beat writer and nearly every fantasy publication has hung a "DND" on this guy at even 4th round ADP. If they're wrong then it's once again an instance where you can't trust coachspeak, the beat writers, the fantasy analysts, your Uncle Joey, etc . . .

I think this organization knows they're not extending or paying him and that he knows that and it's all about the paycheck and the future for both parties. I wish they'd have both cut to the chase and gotten a deal done in some way where he could get them adequate compensation and he could sign, but there are things complicating that. Namely, he did not have a good year last year and the stats and tape both tell the same story. Gotta play his way back into a payday if that's even feasible anymore.

eta* I should also point out that when I have a guy rostered on my main team, I get really antsy and project under what he'll achieve. I'm actually trying to adjust for that. I just haven't heard one thing (not one) positive about Hall's outlook for this season. It's tough to be the 1 in a 100 and I'm smart enough to know that I'm not smart enough swim against the current like Steve Jobs where you're drowning and then find overwhelming success right before you're about to expire. And even Jobs had a miserable ten-year rut.

 

[dipandglide]

With the probably lack of catches along with the talk of more rotation, Hall’s prospects this year do not look good on paper. For dynasty players, it may present a nice buy opportunity if he struggles to produce in the early to mid portion of next year in hopes he flees to FA after the season.

Hall's offseason reminds me of Josh Jacobs a few years ago. Many people sold Jacobs for pennies in dynasty, and he was dirt cheap in redraft before breaking out. I'm not ready to quit yet and not at these prices.

hall seems destined for 13-15 carries a game. goal line could be allen or fields. no way hall gets jacobs’ volume. best bet is to hold and when the jets let him go, maybe he winds up as a 3 down work horse somewhere else.

I'll be surprised if he isn't getting 20+ touches. The Jets have nobody besides Wilson on offense. And you can't rule out a trade to RB-needy teams like Dallas or KC.

 

[mjb03003]

I still believe he’s a great buy low in dynasty because (I believe) he is destined to be traded to and/or sign with a new team that wants him to be their unquestioned lead back. He’ll be just 25 years old and he’ll probably get a 3 year deal and there will be a nice window of RB1 production in what is almost certainly to be a better offense (sorry Jets fans).

I can totally get behind this. Let’s see if he has the burst he lacked last year (I think he was hurt or playing through serious pain).

I should add that the true low point for Breece Hall’s value may be later in this 2025 season, if he’s getting 10-12 touches a week in a full blown committee. If that does come to pass, he’ll be frustrated and posting cryptic tweets, maybe even demand a trade. You probably want to buy right before the trade demand because once people start dreaming of where he could be playing next his value will recover some.

Unfortunately, you've probably got it right even down to the cryptic tweets. You know this cat. You also, IMO, are reading the tea leaves and seeing how the Jets year is going to go. I wish I had unbridled optimism and I take solace in the fact that things do often break in ways unforeseen. Perhaps he comes out of the gates charging and Glenn has no choice but to start him. Man, that would make my fantasy year. But everything from camp and nearly every beat writer and nearly every fantasy publication has hung a "DND" on this guy at even 4th round ADP. If they're wrong then it's once again an instance where you can't trust coachspeak, the beat writers, the fantasy analysts, your Uncle Joey, etc . . .

I think this organization knows they're not extending or paying him and that he knows that and it's all about the paycheck and the future for both parties. I wish they'd have both cut to the chase and gotten a deal done in some way where he could get them adequate compensation and he could sign, but there are things complicating that. Namely, he did not have a good year last year and the stats and tape both tell the same story. Gotta play his way back into a payday if that's even feasible anymore.

eta* I should also point out that when I have a guy rostered on my main team, I get really antsy and project under what he'll achieve. I'm actually trying to adjust for that. I just haven't heard one thing (not one) positive about Hall's outlook for this season. It's tough to be the 1 in a 100 and I'm smart enough to know that I'm not smart enough swim against the current like Steve Jobs where you're drowning and then find overwhelming success right before you're about to expire. And even Jobs had a miserable ten-year rut.

I’d love to be wrong. Really I would. I have a lot of Breece but like you I have a hard time seeing how he overcomes the situation. I have mentally prepared for him to be no more than my RB3/flex, but I hope he surprises me.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

I still believe he’s a great buy low in dynasty because (I believe) he is destined to be traded to and/or sign with a new team that wants him to be their unquestioned lead back. He’ll be just 25 years old and he’ll probably get a 3 year deal and there will be a nice window of RB1 production in what is almost certainly to be a better offense (sorry Jets fans).

I can totally get behind this. Let’s see if he has the burst he lacked last year (I think he was hurt or playing through serious pain).

I should add that the true low point for Breece Hall’s value may be later in this 2025 season, if he’s getting 10-12 touches a week in a full blown committee. If that does come to pass, he’ll be frustrated and posting cryptic tweets, maybe even demand a trade. You probably want to buy right before the trade demand because once people start dreaming of where he could be playing next his value will recover some.

Unfortunately, you've probably got it right even down to the cryptic tweets. You know this cat. You also, IMO, are reading the tea leaves and seeing how the Jets year is going to go. I wish I had unbridled optimism and I take solace in the fact that things do often break in ways unforeseen. Perhaps he comes out of the gates charging and Glenn has no choice but to start him. Man, that would make my fantasy year. But everything from camp and nearly every beat writer and nearly every fantasy publication has hung a "DND" on this guy at even 4th round ADP. If they're wrong then it's once again an instance where you can't trust coachspeak, the beat writers, the fantasy analysts, your Uncle Joey, etc . . .

I think this organization knows they're not extending or paying him and that he knows that and it's all about the paycheck and the future for both parties. I wish they'd have both cut to the chase and gotten a deal done in some way where he could get them adequate compensation and he could sign, but there are things complicating that. Namely, he did not have a good year last year and the stats and tape both tell the same story. Gotta play his way back into a payday if that's even feasible anymore.

eta* I should also point out that when I have a guy rostered on my main team, I get really antsy and project under what he'll achieve. I'm actually trying to adjust for that. I just haven't heard one thing (not one) positive about Hall's outlook for this season. It's tough to be the 1 in a 100 and I'm smart enough to know that I'm not smart enough swim against the current like Steve Jobs where you're drowning and then find overwhelming success right before you're about to expire. And even Jobs had a miserable ten-year rut.

I’d love to be wrong. Really I would. I have a lot of Breece but like you I have a hard time seeing how he overcomes the situation. I have mentally prepared for him to be no more than my RB3/flex, but I hope he surprises me.

I mean, legit if that’s how they plan to use him in a contract year then they are morons if they don’t trade him

 

[rockaction]

I still believe he’s a great buy low in dynasty because (I believe) he is destined to be traded to and/or sign with a new team that wants him to be their unquestioned lead back. He’ll be just 25 years old and he’ll probably get a 3 year deal and there will be a nice window of RB1 production in what is almost certainly to be a better offense (sorry Jets fans).

I can totally get behind this. Let’s see if he has the burst he lacked last year (I think he was hurt or playing through serious pain).

I should add that the true low point for Breece Hall’s value may be later in this 2025 season, if he’s getting 10-12 touches a week in a full blown committee. If that does come to pass, he’ll be frustrated and posting cryptic tweets, maybe even demand a trade. You probably want to buy right before the trade demand because once people start dreaming of where he could be playing next his value will recover some.

Unfortunately, you've probably got it right even down to the cryptic tweets. You know this cat. You also, IMO, are reading the tea leaves and seeing how the Jets year is going to go. I wish I had unbridled optimism and I take solace in the fact that things do often break in ways unforeseen. Perhaps he comes out of the gates charging and Glenn has no choice but to start him. Man, that would make my fantasy year. But everything from camp and nearly every beat writer and nearly every fantasy publication has hung a "DND" on this guy at even 4th round ADP. If they're wrong then it's once again an instance where you can't trust coachspeak, the beat writers, the fantasy analysts, your Uncle Joey, etc . . .

I think this organization knows they're not extending or paying him and that he knows that and it's all about the paycheck and the future for both parties. I wish they'd have both cut to the chase and gotten a deal done in some way where he could get them adequate compensation and he could sign, but there are things complicating that. Namely, he did not have a good year last year and the stats and tape both tell the same story. Gotta play his way back into a payday if that's even feasible anymore.

eta* I should also point out that when I have a guy rostered on my main team, I get really antsy and project under what he'll achieve. I'm actually trying to adjust for that. I just haven't heard one thing (not one) positive about Hall's outlook for this season. It's tough to be the 1 in a 100 and I'm smart enough to know that I'm not smart enough swim against the current like Steve Jobs where you're drowning and then find overwhelming success right before you're about to expire. And even Jobs had a miserable ten-year rut.

I’d love to be wrong. Really I would. I have a lot of Breece but like you I have a hard time seeing how he overcomes the situation. I have mentally prepared for him to be no more than my RB3/flex, but I hope he surprises me.

I mean, legit if that’s how they plan to use him in a contract year then they are morons if they don’t trade him

I don't think the Jets are going to get anything for the "privilege" of being able to negotiate an extension with a guy whose health is a major question and is coming off a statistically and visually lousy year. It's not worth it to get a fifth or a sixth only to watch him go off somewhere else. And I think they'd take a fourth at this point. Maybe. I think letting him play at the beginning (if they're optimistic at all) allows him to pump his trade value and as soon as he gets there and they start losing they dump him.

Or he overwhelms everybody and they sign him, but I think hearing these guys, knowing the scheme, and that they have cost control over Allen and Davis for two more years plus this one . . . you get the idea.

 

[jvdesigns2002]

I’ve said this several times in other threads—but here is my Breece hypothesis. I was never on his hype train when the fantasy community was going nuts for him. He burned a lot of people last season—but let’s look at things objectively. Last season—the Jets were nothing short of a dumpster fire. They had a diva qb that didn’t want to be there that was a shell of himself. They had a coaching staff that was so horrid that one can describe their ineptitude as sabotaging the organization. Even in that dumpster fire of a mess—Breece finished the year as the RB16-17 based on if you are looking at 0.5 ppr or full point ppr. Thats a mid to high RB2 with potential upside. He finished at that only averaging 13 rushing attempts and 4.5 targets per game. This season, they have a better coaching staff, they have a younger quarterback that loves dumping passes off to running backs (which is what Breece excels at), and the only real weapon they have on the receiving core is Garret Wilson as they lost Devante Adams. They are clearly going to be more of a running team this season—so even if they give Braelon more plays, and if Fields does some designed runs—-there is a very high likelihood that Breece gets the same number of touches or even more touches than he got last year. There is also the possibility that he gets traded—and one of the biggest rumors is the Cowboys. If he goes to the cowboys—he could catapult from being a RB2 to being a bonafide RB1. I’ve seen him fall to 4th and 5th rounds in recent drafts. I personally think thats a solid value for his potential upside, and I don’t see his floor being as catastrophic as some of the fantasy community is making it out to be.

 

[FGITLOTR]

I’ve said this several times in other threads—but here is my Breece hypothesis. I was never on his hype train when the fantasy community was going nuts for him. He burned a lot of people last season—but let’s look at things objectively. Last season—the Jets were nothing short of a dumpster fire. They had a diva qb that didn’t want to be there that was a shell of himself. They had a coaching staff that was so horrid that one can describe their ineptitude as sabotaging the organization. Even in that dumpster fire of a mess—Breece finished the year as the RB16-17 based on if you are looking at 0.5 ppr or full point ppr. Thats a mid to high RB2 with potential upside. He finished at that only averaging 13 rushing attempts and 4.5 targets per game. This season, they have a better coaching staff, they have a younger quarterback that loves dumping passes off to running backs (which is what Breece excels at), and the only real weapon they have on the receiving core is Garret Wilson as they lost Devante Adams. They are clearly going to be more of a running team this season—so even if they give Braelon more plays, and if Fields does some designed runs—-there is a very high likelihood that Breece gets the same number of touches or even more touches than he got last year. There is also the possibility that he gets traded—and one of the biggest rumors is the Cowboys. If he goes to the cowboys—he could catapult from being a RB2 to being a bonafide RB1. I’ve seen him fall to 4th and 5th rounds in recent drafts. I personally think thats a solid value for his potential upside, and I don’t see his floor being as catastrophic as some of the fantasy community is making it out to be.Unless the Jets surprise and are in playoff contention, I’d be shocked to see him not dealt to a contender by the deadline. I concur with your overall synopsis and think he’s an excellent value this year. I was able to get a bargain on him in my big dynasty draft. He’s only 24 years old and is without a doubt one of the most talented RB’s in football

 

[the moops]

I’ve said this several times in other threads—but here is my Breece hypothesis. I was never on his hype train when the fantasy community was going nuts for him. He burned a lot of people last season—but let’s look at things objectively. Last season—the Jets were nothing short of a dumpster fire. They had a diva qb that didn’t want to be there that was a shell of himself. They had a coaching staff that was so horrid that one can describe their ineptitude as sabotaging the organization. Even in that dumpster fire of a mess—Breece finished the year as the RB16-17 based on if you are looking at 0.5 ppr or full point ppr. Thats a mid to high RB2 with potential upside. He finished at that only averaging 13 rushing attempts and 4.5 targets per game. This season, they have a better coaching staff, they have a younger quarterback that loves dumping passes off to running backs (which is what Breece excels at), and the only real weapon they have on the receiving core is Garret Wilson as they lost Devante Adams. They are clearly going to be more of a running team this season—so even if they give Braelon more plays, and if Fields does some designed runs—-there is a very high likelihood that Breece gets the same number of touches or even more touches than he got last year. There is also the possibility that he gets traded—and one of the biggest rumors is the Cowboys. If he goes to the cowboys—he could catapult from being a RB2 to being a bonafide RB1. I’ve seen him fall to 4th and 5th rounds in recent drafts. I personally think thats a solid value for his potential upside, and I don’t see his floor being as catastrophic as some of the fantasy community is making it out to be.

I got him at 5.01 last night in my 12 team PPR league. I wasn't stoked about it, but you may have just given me some hope good buddy. So thanks for this post

 

[King of the Jungle]

I’ve said this several times in other threads—but here is my Breece hypothesis. I was never on his hype train when the fantasy community was going nuts for him. He burned a lot of people last season—but let’s look at things objectively. Last season—the Jets were nothing short of a dumpster fire. They had a diva qb that didn’t want to be there that was a shell of himself. They had a coaching staff that was so horrid that one can describe their ineptitude as sabotaging the organization. Even in that dumpster fire of a mess—Breece finished the year as the RB16-17 based on if you are looking at 0.5 ppr or full point ppr. Thats a mid to high RB2 with potential upside. He finished at that only averaging 13 rushing attempts and 4.5 targets per game. This season, they have a better coaching staff, they have a younger quarterback that loves dumping passes off to running backs (which is what Breece excels at), and the only real weapon they have on the receiving core is Garret Wilson as they lost Devante Adams. They are clearly going to be more of a running team this season—so even if they give Braelon more plays, and if Fields does some designed runs—-there is a very high likelihood that Breece gets the same number of touches or even more touches than he got last year. There is also the possibility that he gets traded—and one of the biggest rumors is the Cowboys. If he goes to the cowboys—he could catapult from being a RB2 to being a bonafide RB1. I’ve seen him fall to 4th and 5th rounds in recent drafts. I personally think thats a solid value for his potential upside, and I don’t see his floor being as catastrophic as some of the fantasy community is making it out to be.

I think he is an absolute stud when healthy, but he did not look healthy last year. Great buy low in dynasty, but too many variables in redraft unless he falls to the 4-5 round range as you suggested. I do think his floor is low with the oline injury and possibility of a rotation with the new staff. This offense has an uphill climb to be successful this season.

 

[jvdesigns2002]

I’ve said this several times in other threads—but here is my Breece hypothesis. I was never on his hype train when the fantasy community was going nuts for him. He burned a lot of people last season—but let’s look at things objectively. Last season—the Jets were nothing short of a dumpster fire. They had a diva qb that didn’t want to be there that was a shell of himself. They had a coaching staff that was so horrid that one can describe their ineptitude as sabotaging the organization. Even in that dumpster fire of a mess—Breece finished the year as the RB16-17 based on if you are looking at 0.5 ppr or full point ppr. Thats a mid to high RB2 with potential upside. He finished at that only averaging 13 rushing attempts and 4.5 targets per game. This season, they have a better coaching staff, they have a younger quarterback that loves dumping passes off to running backs (which is what Breece excels at), and the only real weapon they have on the receiving core is Garret Wilson as they lost Devante Adams. They are clearly going to be more of a running team this season—so even if they give Braelon more plays, and if Fields does some designed runs—-there is a very high likelihood that Breece gets the same number of touches or even more touches than he got last year. There is also the possibility that he gets traded—and one of the biggest rumors is the Cowboys. If he goes to the cowboys—he could catapult from being a RB2 to being a bonafide RB1. I’ve seen him fall to 4th and 5th rounds in recent drafts. I personally think thats a solid value for his potential upside, and I don’t see his floor being as catastrophic as some of the fantasy community is making it out to be.

I got him at 5.01 last night in my 12 team PPR league. I wasn't stoked about it, but you may have just given me some hope good buddy. So thanks for this post

I think you did well to get him there. I think he’ll be a fine rb2 with upside this season—but I do worry about him week 1. The Steelers do have a tough defense and apparently the weather might be rough that game. With that said, Aaron Glenn was with the lions in a system where they successfully implemented two solid running backs to produce. At first it was Jamal Williams/Deandre Swift, then it was David Montgomery/Gibbs. I could absolutely see Glenn even having both of the guys on the field at the same time every now and then—and line Breece up almost as a WR. I expect the Jets to run and complete short/dump off passes a lot this year—and I think that bodes well for both Breece and Braelon.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

He looks a helluva lot better than B Allen so far today

 

[WaltonGoggins]

Got Hall late in a number of leagues and yes it's early but he's running like a much younger, rejuvenated back. Very pleased.

 

[WaltonGoggins]

Got Hall late in a number of leagues and yes it's early but he's running like a much younger, rejuvenated back. Very pleased.

What a strong long run, Hall looks lighter and much quicker.

 

[Ray_T]

Got Hall late in a number of leagues and yes it's early but he's running like a much younger, rejuvenated back. Very pleased.

his problem last year was the line was not holding up their end of the bargain. I thought he still played well enough given the sub par blocking in front of him.

so far today the line has looked better than most all of last year. obviously its a very small sample size, but bodes well for him and his production this season.

 

[unckeyherb]

Gotta love his usage so far.

 

[Dez]

Got to hate Allen getting the TD though

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Got Hall late in a number of leagues and yes it's early but he's running like a much younger, rejuvenated back. Very pleased.

What a strong long run, Hall looks lighter and much quicker.

Agreed. I was not high on him this year but he looks good. Couple years off the acl getting that burst back.

 

[Deamon]

avoided him hard and regretting it.

 

[Dez]

Every time I did a draft with a teammate of mine the last 2 weeks when Hall fell I kept telling my story how in 2023 everyone was fading Hall because Dalvin Cook signed and how I got him in the 6th round of my cutline and how I won $75,000 and a championship but that couldn't sway my teammates to want to take him in round 5 this year.
My last solo draft of the year last night I grabbed me some Hall in round 5.

 

[rockaction]

I'd trust nothing that came from that previous Jets regime. The whole thing was a dumpster fire that included one of the weirdest coaching staffs where I know I read the head coach bragging that he left a brokerage firm by lying to his boss about his brother dying so he could go to a football interview and an even weirder quarterback. Breece Hall, when healthy, like I said in another thread, is actually the most dynamic running back I've ever seen. I did not see LT2 play that much, so that era is kind of lost on me.

I speculated a lot about what this guy says here. He didn't look right last year and I kept asking why and felt confused. I thought he was injured but didn't know about the mysterious June injury at the link.

https://x.com/RyanJ_Heath/status/1964769327560953925

Ryan Heath
@RyanJ_Heath
·
5m

I had a conspiracy theory about Breece Hall being hurt all of last season. No idea how the goal line split with Braelon Allen will go rest of season, or if he'll ultimately end up being a strong pick.But based on how explosive Hall looks today, that part was probably right.

 

[TampaMike19]

Avoided this guy way too much and this is hard to accept!

 

[Ilov80s]

I'd trust nothing that came from that previous Jets regime. The whole thing was a dumpster fire that included one of the weirdest coaching staffs where I know I read the head coach bragging that he left a brokerage firm by lying to his boss about his brother dying so he could go to a football interview and an even weirder quarterback. Breece Hall, when healthy, like I said in another thread, is actually the most dynamic running back I've ever seen. I did not see LT2 play that much, so that era is kind of lost on me.

I speculated a lot about what this guy says here. He didn't look right last year and I kept asking why and felt confused. I thought he was injured but didn't know about the mysterious June injury at the link.

https://x.com/RyanJ_Heath/status/1964769327560953925

Ryan Heath
@RyanJ_Heath
·
5m

I had a conspiracy theory about Breece Hall being hurt all of last season. No idea how the goal line split with Braelon Allen will go rest of season, or if he'll ultimately end up being a strong pick.But based on how explosive Hall looks today, that part was probably right.

Yeah I can't comment on health or usage but everyone knows I've said Breece Hall coming into the league was a better player than Bijan. His peak outcome is a Saquon like season.

 

[Ilov80s]

And no idea if the new Jets staff can turn this ship around but I believe in Aaron Glenn as a leader of men. Not sure tactically he's a genius DC or anything but he's a leader.

 

[dipandglide]

Encouraging start for Mr. Hall

 

[jvdesigns2002]

Avoided this guy way too much and this is hard to accept!

You can’t really blame yourself too hard. I luckily went against the grain and went all in on Breece at what felt like really discounted levels—but I also have heavy market share in Xavier worthy and Jauan Jennings. Nobody bats a thousand. I think that a decent portion of the fantasy expert community doesn’t like to get “burned” by the same player twice. Touting Breece as a top 5-8 pick in fantasy drafts not long ago blew up in their faces. The recency bias of getting burned by a player can be real. The same people that were saying he was a beast previously, somehow changed their tune into him being a must avoid player as if he was a fantasy cancer at a 3.5-4.5 round discount. He certainly might not have games like yesterdays every week—but yesterday did flash that he still has it and that he has upside. I got poked fun at in one of my leagues where I took him over Kenneth walker (it was buddies—so it was all in good fun)—but their take was that I was taking a guy where the backup was clearly better than the starter. I told them that I thought that Charbonnet is closer to Walker than Braelon is to Breece. Keep in mind—I’m not saying that Braelon is bad by any means—I’m just saying that I think the gap between charbs and walker is closer than the Jets Rb’s.

 

[Wigglytuff's Gruff]

I’m not saying that Braelon is bad by any means

Not really any evidence to the contrary right now though is there.

 

[zeeshan2]

well he was one of my avoids and it appears I was wrong so far; same on Garrett Wilson

 

[Zow]

Avoided this guy way too much and this is hard to accept!

I loved his value this year. RB2 cost at most with the potential to be a league winner.

I was actually more worried about taking him last year as he was going early first.

 

[Buckna]

Somewhat glad that other teams didn't take me up on my offers to trade him this offseason although I did manage to package him for Gibbs in one league. Still think it will be better if he gets traded, seemed like the Jets checked in Allen nearly every time they got inside the redzone and definitely in short yardage.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Somewhat glad that other teams didn't take me up on my offers to trade him this offseason although I did manage to package him for Gibbs in one league. Still think it will be better if he gets traded, seemed like the Jets checked in Allen nearly every time they got inside the redzone and definitely in short yardage.

Yep. Even though Breece looked amazing and Braelon looked like he was running in quicksand

 

[Deamon]

Somewhat glad that other teams didn't take me up on my offers to trade him this offseason although I did manage to package him for Gibbs in one league. Still think it will be better if he gets traded, seemed like the Jets checked in Allen nearly every time they got inside the redzone and definitely in short yardage.

Very high likelihood that they start the year 0-3 with the Bills and @Tampa coming up. Maybe they do trade him if that's the case.

Bears feel like a good destination.