Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Abdullah has always looked to me like a good athlete but an average at best football player.
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RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter BigTex
- Start date
RC94
Footballguy
Exactly. If he simply got a better start, without actually running faster overall, he probably would have been considered one of the faster RBs in this draft.
mcintyre1
Footballguy
Eh, no need to derail this thread too much more talking about Ameer, but he did have back to back 1600+ yard rushing seasons at 6ypc (in 13 games) and was really the only reason those Nebraska teams ('13-'14) were any good on offense. Clyde, on the other hand, only has one pretty good season to his name and definitely wasn't "the guy" carrying his team to success (admittedly, he was behind much better talent his FR and SO years than Ameer ever played with).
It's interesting that pre-draft CEH appeared to be firmly as the RB3 in this class, sometimes RB4 or even RB5, on most people's lists. Certainly landing spot plays a significant role and he couldn't have asked for a better one. Now I see him being compared to Barry Sanders ever since Andy reached up and snagged him. Are people really that enamored with his skill set suddenly or is it simply salivating at the thought of what he can do in that offense?
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
I think a combination of the two. Enamored with his skillset more so now because he landed in his optimal situation for the skills he has. I dare say if he had gone anywhere else he is probably falling back down to that 3-5 range. But because of what he does well matches perfectly with what the Chiefs do it has created the perfect storm.
EBF
Footballguy
I still sort of like Abdullah and I think there's some talent there if he ever got the right opportunity, but it feels like such an irrelevant tangent. I really don't see Ameer when I look at CEH. Despite what the listed height/weight might say, the body type is a lot different. Ameer didn't have the same lower body bulk or leg drive. He was the muscular version of a skinny guy, if that makes any sense. Clyde is more of the classic bowling ball RB build, like a shorter version of Ricky Williams or Earl Campbell.
You can look at the 40 time and say "David Montgomery 2.0", but a key difference for me is in the stats. Concerns about Montgomery's explosiveness were reinforced by poor stats in this area. Even in college, he was not breaking big plays. On the other hand, while Clyde may not be a track burner, he broke a lot of long runs last season. This helps ease some of my concerns there. The play style is slightly different, but I think the overall talent level and package is similar to Josh Jacobs last season, except in a much more potent offense. That's pretty compelling.
The only issue I see is that he's already the 1.01 rookie pick and a fringe top 10 PPR dynasty back, so there's not much profit margin if you buy at market price. If you pay a RB10 price to get him and becomes the RB5, how much have you really profited? I'd be happy to have him on my dynasty team and I do think there's still some upside over his current price/ADP, but he's already so pricey that you're not going to get a massive discount even if he hits his absolute ceiling.
You can look at the 40 time and say "David Montgomery 2.0", but a key difference for me is in the stats. Concerns about Montgomery's explosiveness were reinforced by poor stats in this area. Even in college, he was not breaking big plays. On the other hand, while Clyde may not be a track burner, he broke a lot of long runs last season. This helps ease some of my concerns there. The play style is slightly different, but I think the overall talent level and package is similar to Josh Jacobs last season, except in a much more potent offense. That's pretty compelling.
The only issue I see is that he's already the 1.01 rookie pick and a fringe top 10 PPR dynasty back, so there's not much profit margin if you buy at market price. If you pay a RB10 price to get him and becomes the RB5, how much have you really profited? I'd be happy to have him on my dynasty team and I do think there's still some upside over his current price/ADP, but he's already so pricey that you're not going to get a massive discount even if he hits his absolute ceiling.
Two comments:
1) The 40 is the most overrated (and most popular) event of the Combine.
2) When's the last time you saw a WR line up in the blocks on the LOS and take off like a track runner?
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
1) Well, yeah.
2) Never. But it's what they all do at the event.
2) Never. But it's what they all do at the event.
Football Jones
Footballguy
Abdullah's problem was he couldn't overcome being light in the pants relative to his escapability. He just wasn't dynamic enough. One of the more overrated RB prospects in recent memory, IMO.
I don't have too many concerns for CEH. His escapability is a hundred times better than Abdullah's & he runs with a lot more power.
I don't have too many concerns for CEH. His escapability is a hundred times better than Abdullah's & he runs with a lot more power.
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BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
So, I'm going to repeat a few things I've already mentioned in this thread and this is just my own opinion. This is why I love CEH, there's no doubt he'll be on my Dynasty team. The following is just something that has helped me in my evaluation process and is only a piece, a part of the puzzle that helps me make a wiser decision when it comes to drafting rookies. Each position is different and therefore my approach is different so here we go. Outside of watching the games which is another piece of the puzzle, the following has helped me be more successful in evaluating a RB's potential success rate in the NFL but for fantasy football purposes.
1. Performance vs competition: It should be noted that Texas (9), Florida (7), Auburn (9), and Alabama (3) were all ranked inside the top 10 when LSU played against them. Given that Edwards-Helaire showed out against top opponents, I’m optimistic that he can be a solid contributor in the NFL as a rusher and receiver. Most importantly, CEH showcased a three-down skill set against several strong opponents.
2. Backfield Dominator Rating: Backfield Dominator Ratings are scaled in much the same way as the Workhorse Metric. A score above 90 is elite, and somewhat rare. A score above 80 is very good, but anything above 70 is solid. Scores below 60 could indicate a potential timeshare situation. His final season Backfield Dominator Rating of 0.80 is superior to that of several highly projected RB prospects, most notably: J.K. Dobbins (0.68), D’Andre Swift (0.47), Cam Akers (0.74), and Jonathan Taylor (0.62). Note that a higher Backfield Dominator Rating season doesn’t mean that he’s a superior prospect.
3. Breakout age and final season adjusted all-purpose ypg: Research shows that two of the more important indicators for RB success in the NFL are breakout age and final season adjusted all-purpose yards per game. Given CEH’s contributions in all three phases of the game, we can see that he performs quite well in this metric. CEH averaged 139 all-purpose yards per game, easily crossing the threshold for breakout age of 130 adjusted all-purpose yards per game. Further research has also shown that RBs who break out at a younger age go on to find NFL success at a 43.5% hit rate. Additionally, research has shown that the difference in fantasy production between 21-year-old rookie RBs and their 22-year-old counterparts is vast. Almost 40% of the seasons produced by RBs who were 21-year-old rookies were RB2 seasons.
4. Early Breakout age: Breaking out on its own was an important determinant of success. Overall, players who broke out at any age hit 33.6 percent of the time, almost three times more frequently than those who did not break out. The effects of breakout age grow as that number gets lower. Players who break out by their 21st birthday hit roughly twice as often as those who break out at after 21.The value of breakout age was shown not just in hit rate, but also overall PPR production. Players who broke out by their 21st birthday averaged over twice as many PPR points in their best season as players who did not break out at all.
Happy Hunting Boys,
Tex
1. Performance vs competition: It should be noted that Texas (9), Florida (7), Auburn (9), and Alabama (3) were all ranked inside the top 10 when LSU played against them. Given that Edwards-Helaire showed out against top opponents, I’m optimistic that he can be a solid contributor in the NFL as a rusher and receiver. Most importantly, CEH showcased a three-down skill set against several strong opponents.
2. Backfield Dominator Rating: Backfield Dominator Ratings are scaled in much the same way as the Workhorse Metric. A score above 90 is elite, and somewhat rare. A score above 80 is very good, but anything above 70 is solid. Scores below 60 could indicate a potential timeshare situation. His final season Backfield Dominator Rating of 0.80 is superior to that of several highly projected RB prospects, most notably: J.K. Dobbins (0.68), D’Andre Swift (0.47), Cam Akers (0.74), and Jonathan Taylor (0.62). Note that a higher Backfield Dominator Rating season doesn’t mean that he’s a superior prospect.
3. Breakout age and final season adjusted all-purpose ypg: Research shows that two of the more important indicators for RB success in the NFL are breakout age and final season adjusted all-purpose yards per game. Given CEH’s contributions in all three phases of the game, we can see that he performs quite well in this metric. CEH averaged 139 all-purpose yards per game, easily crossing the threshold for breakout age of 130 adjusted all-purpose yards per game. Further research has also shown that RBs who break out at a younger age go on to find NFL success at a 43.5% hit rate. Additionally, research has shown that the difference in fantasy production between 21-year-old rookie RBs and their 22-year-old counterparts is vast. Almost 40% of the seasons produced by RBs who were 21-year-old rookies were RB2 seasons.
4. Early Breakout age: Breaking out on its own was an important determinant of success. Overall, players who broke out at any age hit 33.6 percent of the time, almost three times more frequently than those who did not break out. The effects of breakout age grow as that number gets lower. Players who break out by their 21st birthday hit roughly twice as often as those who break out at after 21.The value of breakout age was shown not just in hit rate, but also overall PPR production. Players who broke out by their 21st birthday averaged over twice as many PPR points in their best season as players who did not break out at all.
Happy Hunting Boys,
Tex
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2) and it is not done in pads. I have always thought the 40 yd should be done in pads at the combine. That is how they play games. Isn't that a better comparison for what really matters?...playing the game.
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I am completely convinced that the Combine was devised by a few shark owners as a way to put one over on the teams who don’t know what they are doing.
rockaction
Footballguy
Just some fun for the truthers. Why CEH is overrated. Football Outsiders.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, LSU
BackCAST Score: -36.1%
RecIndex: 0.18
Similar Historical Prospects: Ahmad Bradshaw, Christine Michael
Edwards-Helaire is the 2020 NFL draft's most overrated running back according to BackCAST. First, Edwards-Helaire has similar workload issues as Swift, except somewhat more severe. Edwards-Helaire was a complete non-factor as a freshman and played clear second fiddle to Nick Brossette, who would become an undrafted free agent, as a sophomore. Edwards-Helaire earned much more action as a junior, but even then LSU chose to give 140 carries to an assortment of freshman running backs. Moreover, when Edwards-Helaire did get the ball, he was only somewhat productive on a per play basis, averaging just under 5.6 yards per carry. To be fair, Edwards-Helaire was productive as a receiver, which could translate to receiving production in the NFL.
However, the real problem with Edwards-Helaire's projection is his size-speed combination, or lack thereof. Edwards-Helaire is only 207 pounds, which makes him one of the ten lightest backs invited to the combine. Despite his relatively small size, however, Edwards-Helaire recorded a slow 4.60-second 40-yard dash. The best drafted running back under 210 pounds that recorded a 40-yard dash of 4.60 seconds or worse is probably Ahmad Bradshaw, who had a couple of nice seasons with the Giants. The rest of the list is far less appealing: Ameer Abdullah, Mark Walton, Travis Stephens, Javon Ringer, Dee Brown, Kevin Taylor, Storm Johnson, and Shyrone Stith. None of those running backs made a sizeable impact in the NFL.
A second round pick -- where Edwards-Helaire is currently rated -- is a high price to pay for a running back, and it is an especially high price to pay for a running back without the historical markers of success, at least as a pure rusher. The question for NFL decision-makers on Edwards-Helaire is whether there is something great enough on his tape to offset the statistical evidence against his success - Football Outsiders, March 2020
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, LSU
BackCAST Score: -36.1%
RecIndex: 0.18
Similar Historical Prospects: Ahmad Bradshaw, Christine Michael
Edwards-Helaire is the 2020 NFL draft's most overrated running back according to BackCAST. First, Edwards-Helaire has similar workload issues as Swift, except somewhat more severe. Edwards-Helaire was a complete non-factor as a freshman and played clear second fiddle to Nick Brossette, who would become an undrafted free agent, as a sophomore. Edwards-Helaire earned much more action as a junior, but even then LSU chose to give 140 carries to an assortment of freshman running backs. Moreover, when Edwards-Helaire did get the ball, he was only somewhat productive on a per play basis, averaging just under 5.6 yards per carry. To be fair, Edwards-Helaire was productive as a receiver, which could translate to receiving production in the NFL.
However, the real problem with Edwards-Helaire's projection is his size-speed combination, or lack thereof. Edwards-Helaire is only 207 pounds, which makes him one of the ten lightest backs invited to the combine. Despite his relatively small size, however, Edwards-Helaire recorded a slow 4.60-second 40-yard dash. The best drafted running back under 210 pounds that recorded a 40-yard dash of 4.60 seconds or worse is probably Ahmad Bradshaw, who had a couple of nice seasons with the Giants. The rest of the list is far less appealing: Ameer Abdullah, Mark Walton, Travis Stephens, Javon Ringer, Dee Brown, Kevin Taylor, Storm Johnson, and Shyrone Stith. None of those running backs made a sizeable impact in the NFL.
A second round pick -- where Edwards-Helaire is currently rated -- is a high price to pay for a running back, and it is an especially high price to pay for a running back without the historical markers of success, at least as a pure rusher. The question for NFL decision-makers on Edwards-Helaire is whether there is something great enough on his tape to offset the statistical evidence against his success - Football Outsiders, March 2020
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JohnnyU
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
Will he see third down with Damien there in pass pro?
Roto sees the grade and then opines to the contrary in their rookie RB pass protection report. They say he'll see third downs. Do you really trust Roto, though?
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Pass Blocking Reps: 228th out of 349 FBS RB qualifiers
Pass Blocking Grade: 314th out of 349 FBS RB qualifiers
Chiefs’ RB Pass Blocking Usage: 28th (13% of passes a RB is in pass protection)
In another offense, I’d be more concerned with Edwards-Helaire’s poor pass-blocking data (see above), but the Chiefs simply don’t ask their running backs to sit in pass protection. Kansas City either goes empty or has their running backs run routes. That strategy will only be magnified with Edwards-Helaire, a very strong pass-catching back, on the roster. Given the rookie’s strength as a route runner and check-down option, I’m expecting him to handle most third-down reps in 2020. The Chiefs didn’t spend a first-round pick on Edwards-Helaire to sit on the bench. He’ll be playing over Damien Williams in no time.
Roto sees the grade and then opines to the contrary in their rookie RB pass protection report. They say he'll see third downs. Do you really trust Roto, though?
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Pass Blocking Reps: 228th out of 349 FBS RB qualifiers
Pass Blocking Grade: 314th out of 349 FBS RB qualifiers
Chiefs’ RB Pass Blocking Usage: 28th (13% of passes a RB is in pass protection)
In another offense, I’d be more concerned with Edwards-Helaire’s poor pass-blocking data (see above), but the Chiefs simply don’t ask their running backs to sit in pass protection. Kansas City either goes empty or has their running backs run routes. That strategy will only be magnified with Edwards-Helaire, a very strong pass-catching back, on the roster. Given the rookie’s strength as a route runner and check-down option, I’m expecting him to handle most third-down reps in 2020. The Chiefs didn’t spend a first-round pick on Edwards-Helaire to sit on the bench. He’ll be playing over Damien Williams in no time.
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Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
I gotta say...I've had it up to HERE with these ridiculous statistical "analyses" these sites are foisting on the sporting community.
I wonder if LSU freshman RBs recorded 140 carries because they were stomping the tar out of their opponents. I wonder.
And "only" 207 pounds?
McCaffrey - 205
Aaron Jones - 208
Dalvin Cook - 210
Ekeler - 200
Bro, do you even watch football? Or do you just crunch spreadsheets?
I wonder if LSU freshman RBs recorded 140 carries because they were stomping the tar out of their opponents. I wonder.
And "only" 207 pounds?
McCaffrey - 205
Aaron Jones - 208
Dalvin Cook - 210
Ekeler - 200
Bro, do you even watch football? Or do you just crunch spreadsheets?
EBF
Footballguy
I've been saying this for a few years, but hear me out:
The NFL consistently undervalues very short RBs.
The problem is that when evaluators talk about "size" they tend to focus completely on weight, when in reality it's the height/weight combination that's more telling. For example, Ray Rice was "undersized" if you isolate weight as the single variable because he only weighed 199 pounds at the combine. However, when you factor height into the equation and look at the resulting BMI, he ends up at 30.3, which is right in line with a typical franchise RB. So essentially he had the same proportions as a "big" RB, but just packed onto a slightly smaller frame. Let's look at some other case studies:
Brian Westbrook (Rd 3, 2002) - 5' 8.4", 200 - 30.1 BMI
Darren Sproles (Rd. 4, 2005) - 5' 6.13", 187 - 30.1 BMI
Maurice Jones-Drew (Rd. 2, 2006) - 5' 6.75", 207 - 32.7 BMI
Dion Lewis (Rd. 5, 2011) - 5' 6.63", 193 - 30.6 BMI
Devonta Freeman (Rd 4, 2014) - 5' 8.25", 206 - 31.1 BMI
Branden Oliver (UDFA, 2014) - 5' 8", 208 - 31.6 BMI (NOTE: Oliver did not get a combine invite, so we don't have his "real" height. I suspect it's lower.)
Literally every guy on this list crushed the draft capital spent to acquire him. Have there been some misses? Yes. Ryan Moats was a bust. Quizz Rodgers did not pan out. Not every short RB is guaranteed to make it in the NFL, but even the very best short RBs of the past decade were underdrafted relative to their true value.
Why is this? Because a lot of evaluators are still locked into a flawed mindset where height = size, when actually it is the relative weight that tells you more about functional strength and power (it is the same at WR with people like Deebo, Steve Smith, Boldin, etc).
So guess what? That "speed score" stuff is pretty worthless, especially with a 5' 8" RB like Clyde. At 5' 8" 205 he is a "small" back, but actually his BMI of 31.2 is near the high end of the scale, creeping towards "big back" territory. One look at this guy tells you he never skips leg day. And just like how a 4.5 40 time isn't the kiss of death for "big" WRs like Fitzgerald, JuJu, and Hopkins, a 4.6 time isn't automatically the end of the world for a power back like Clyde.
The NFL consistently undervalues very short RBs.
The problem is that when evaluators talk about "size" they tend to focus completely on weight, when in reality it's the height/weight combination that's more telling. For example, Ray Rice was "undersized" if you isolate weight as the single variable because he only weighed 199 pounds at the combine. However, when you factor height into the equation and look at the resulting BMI, he ends up at 30.3, which is right in line with a typical franchise RB. So essentially he had the same proportions as a "big" RB, but just packed onto a slightly smaller frame. Let's look at some other case studies:
Brian Westbrook (Rd 3, 2002) - 5' 8.4", 200 - 30.1 BMI
Darren Sproles (Rd. 4, 2005) - 5' 6.13", 187 - 30.1 BMI
Maurice Jones-Drew (Rd. 2, 2006) - 5' 6.75", 207 - 32.7 BMI
Dion Lewis (Rd. 5, 2011) - 5' 6.63", 193 - 30.6 BMI
Devonta Freeman (Rd 4, 2014) - 5' 8.25", 206 - 31.1 BMI
Branden Oliver (UDFA, 2014) - 5' 8", 208 - 31.6 BMI (NOTE: Oliver did not get a combine invite, so we don't have his "real" height. I suspect it's lower.)
Literally every guy on this list crushed the draft capital spent to acquire him. Have there been some misses? Yes. Ryan Moats was a bust. Quizz Rodgers did not pan out. Not every short RB is guaranteed to make it in the NFL, but even the very best short RBs of the past decade were underdrafted relative to their true value.
Why is this? Because a lot of evaluators are still locked into a flawed mindset where height = size, when actually it is the relative weight that tells you more about functional strength and power (it is the same at WR with people like Deebo, Steve Smith, Boldin, etc).
So guess what? That "speed score" stuff is pretty worthless, especially with a 5' 8" RB like Clyde. At 5' 8" 205 he is a "small" back, but actually his BMI of 31.2 is near the high end of the scale, creeping towards "big back" territory. One look at this guy tells you he never skips leg day. And just like how a 4.5 40 time isn't the kiss of death for "big" WRs like Fitzgerald, JuJu, and Hopkins, a 4.6 time isn't automatically the end of the world for a power back like Clyde.
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rockaction
Footballguy
Why? Edwards-Helaire went in the first round. The whole premise is removed from there. The NFL values CEH with the draft capital used, it's whether or not he's any good. We have Ray Rice and Maurice Jones-Drew as the outliers of all running backs in that motley crew of slew thrown at us by the post. That's six successful guys out of how many?
And Helaire is 5'7", so the BMI is totally off.
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fruity pebbles
Footballguy
I honestly don’t know how you could watch him against Alabama last season and think he’ll be anything but awesome in that Chiefs offense.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HkzAkvhvpQU
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HkzAkvhvpQU
rockaction
Footballguy
The only thing Edwars-Helaire has going for him as a prospect is his one year of tape against stiff competition. Otherwise, there's almost no evidence of him being a top flight back.
His dominator rating is low, and late
His speed score stinks
His height is questionable
He played behind undrafted guys for years at LSU
All he's got is saying that he did well against Bama. Well, maybe Bama was worried about taking away Burrow and the deeper passing game that day. What about the film against Bama is so great, and are we really qualified to watch film, or to trust our opinions of highlights?
Anyway, like I said in the other thread. I'm done here. I'll let everyone else circle around and proclaim greatness. I don't see the evidence but for one thing.
BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
Not true and he played behind Guice. You're throwing up things to see what sticks.
Tex
BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
You clearly overlooked this, I'll post it again.
1. Performance vs competition: It should be noted that Texas (9), Florida (7), Auburn (9), and Alabama (3) were all ranked inside the top 10 when LSU played against them. Given that Edwards-Helaire showed out against top opponents, I’m optimistic that he can be a solid contributor in the NFL as a rusher and receiver. Most importantly, CEH showcased a three-down skill set against several strong opponents.
2. Backfield Dominator Rating: Backfield Dominator Ratings are scaled in much the same way as the Workhorse Metric. A score above 90 is elite, and somewhat rare. A score above 80 is very good, but anything above 70 is solid. Scores below 60 could indicate a potential timeshare situation. His final season Backfield Dominator Rating of 0.80 is superior to that of several highly projected RB prospects, most notably: J.K. Dobbins (0.68), D’Andre Swift (0.47), Cam Akers (0.74), and Jonathan Taylor (0.62). Note that a higher Backfield Dominator Rating season doesn’t mean that he’s a superior prospect.
3. Breakout age and final season adjusted all-purpose ypg: Research shows that two of the more important indicators for RB success in the NFL are breakout age and final season adjusted all-purpose yards per game. Given CEH’s contributions in all three phases of the game, we can see that he performs quite well in this metric. CEH averaged 139 all-purpose yards per game, easily crossing the threshold for breakout age of 130 adjusted all-purpose yards per game. Further research has also shown that RBs who break out at a younger age go on to find NFL success at a 43.5% hit rate. Additionally, research has shown that the difference in fantasy production between 21-year-old rookie RBs and their 22-year-old counterparts is vast. Almost 40% of the seasons produced by RBs who were 21-year-old rookies were RB2 seasons.
4. Early Breakout age: Breaking out on its own was an important determinant of success. Overall, players who broke out at any age hit 33.6 percent of the time, almost three times more frequently than those who did not break out. The effects of breakout age grow as that number gets lower. Players who break out by their 21st birthday hit roughly twice as often as those who break out at after 21.The value of breakout age was shown not just in hit rate, but also overall PPR production. Players who broke out by their 21st birthday averaged over twice as many PPR points in their best season as players who did not break out at all.
Happy Hunting Boys,
Tex
1. Performance vs competition: It should be noted that Texas (9), Florida (7), Auburn (9), and Alabama (3) were all ranked inside the top 10 when LSU played against them. Given that Edwards-Helaire showed out against top opponents, I’m optimistic that he can be a solid contributor in the NFL as a rusher and receiver. Most importantly, CEH showcased a three-down skill set against several strong opponents.
2. Backfield Dominator Rating: Backfield Dominator Ratings are scaled in much the same way as the Workhorse Metric. A score above 90 is elite, and somewhat rare. A score above 80 is very good, but anything above 70 is solid. Scores below 60 could indicate a potential timeshare situation. His final season Backfield Dominator Rating of 0.80 is superior to that of several highly projected RB prospects, most notably: J.K. Dobbins (0.68), D’Andre Swift (0.47), Cam Akers (0.74), and Jonathan Taylor (0.62). Note that a higher Backfield Dominator Rating season doesn’t mean that he’s a superior prospect.
3. Breakout age and final season adjusted all-purpose ypg: Research shows that two of the more important indicators for RB success in the NFL are breakout age and final season adjusted all-purpose yards per game. Given CEH’s contributions in all three phases of the game, we can see that he performs quite well in this metric. CEH averaged 139 all-purpose yards per game, easily crossing the threshold for breakout age of 130 adjusted all-purpose yards per game. Further research has also shown that RBs who break out at a younger age go on to find NFL success at a 43.5% hit rate. Additionally, research has shown that the difference in fantasy production between 21-year-old rookie RBs and their 22-year-old counterparts is vast. Almost 40% of the seasons produced by RBs who were 21-year-old rookies were RB2 seasons.
4. Early Breakout age: Breaking out on its own was an important determinant of success. Overall, players who broke out at any age hit 33.6 percent of the time, almost three times more frequently than those who did not break out. The effects of breakout age grow as that number gets lower. Players who break out by their 21st birthday hit roughly twice as often as those who break out at after 21.The value of breakout age was shown not just in hit rate, but also overall PPR production. Players who broke out by their 21st birthday averaged over twice as many PPR points in their best season as players who did not break out at all.
Happy Hunting Boys,
Tex
rockaction
Footballguy
He played behind Guice in high school, and only part of the time against LSU. Indeed, many people have pointed out his spotty track record w/r/t to never starting on a football field. And he's 5'7" surely on the low side of backs.
You're throwing out inaccuracies.
rockaction
EBF
Footballguy
If he's only 5'7" and his weight is the same then his BMI is even higher, which would be a good thing.
You seem unnecessarily hostile and argumentative about this player.
Personally, I don't even have any top 2 rookie picks this year, but I wish I did. I'd be really happy to draft Clyde. I liked what I saw as soon as I jumped into the film analysis after the draft and I think there are more positives than what you're suggesting. 4.60 isn't that slow for a squatty, shifty type of back. One of the comps that comes to mind when I watch Clyde is Mark Ingram and he was a 4.62 guy in his own right. He's now entering the 10th season in a successful pro career.
There are also some encouraging things in Clyde's statistical production. Last season he ranked 31st among NCAA players in carries, but 7th in runs of 20+ yards. So even if his stopwatch speed wasn't explosive, he was able to break a lot of long runs. This is part of why I like him a lot more than I liked David Montgomery last year, who had some similarities. Both guys are compact and powerful with "meh" 40 times, but Montgomery had the inverse type of situation where he ranked 9th in carries in his final NCAA season, yet was still behind 37 other players in long runs. When the 40 time and the production both say "plodder" you have cause for concern, but with Clyde the statistics suggest he is explosive.
His highlights show some plays where a decent second gear is evident.
What I like most about him is the effortless cutting ability and lateral quickness.
Some good examples of that:
#1
#2
He runs on a swivel. Very loose feet and hips, reminiscent of people like Lynch, Miles Sanders, Ray Rice, and Mixon.
When I look at the overall package I would actually go against your narrative and say he's a very safe pick. I don't know if the superstar ceiling is there, but he's probably Benson/Ingram at a minimum, and potentially something more. To me, he's actually pretty close to a sure thing prospect barring injuries and off-field stuff. If we look back on this thread in a few years and he doesn't have a couple top 10-15 FF RB seasons under his belt, I'll be surprised.
EBF
Footballguy
Look at some of these reps. This guy does some insane stuff:
https://youtu.be/j8a5gpY4zjc?t=197
https://youtu.be/j8a5gpY4zjc?t=461
https://youtu.be/j8a5gpY4zjc?t=310
https://youtu.be/j8a5gpY4zjc?t=360
This guy does special, special things with his balance and cuts. Add in the dream landing spot and I would say don't overthink this one.
https://youtu.be/j8a5gpY4zjc?t=197
https://youtu.be/j8a5gpY4zjc?t=461
https://youtu.be/j8a5gpY4zjc?t=310
https://youtu.be/j8a5gpY4zjc?t=360
This guy does special, special things with his balance and cuts. Add in the dream landing spot and I would say don't overthink this one.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
I’m not seeing slow with this guy. I don’t know what happened at the combine but the dudes not slow. Third run into this.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j8a5gpY4zjc&feature=youtu.be&t=461
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j8a5gpY4zjc&feature=youtu.be&t=461
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Hankmoody
Footballguy
Sorry man but this sounds like a guy that's trying to reassure himself that trading out of 1.01 to take Henry Ruggs wasn't a mistake. We're picking on HEIGHT now? HEIGHT? We're talkin' 'bout HEIGHT?
My Iverson may suck, sorry.
rockaction
Footballguy
I'M CONVINCED!
rockaction
Footballguy
Yes, I awoke this morning thinking about my evil plot to bring down Clyde Edwards-Helaire in chat rooms everywhere and I have now started to succeed in my nefarious plot. Or, I just don't think he's that good, make an innocuous yet fairly succinct comment in another thread and got waylaid by those in deep with the Kool Aid.
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wgoldsph
Footballguy
I have pick 1.11 in my upcoming rookie draft. I hope there are 10 owners in front of me that think the same as you. Before the NFL draft I had CEH as my target at that point. I liked him the best of all RB's in the draft. Then my hopes and dreams were crushed when KC took him in the first round but reading these kind of takes gives me hope. Hopefully I have 10 of you in my league.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
jm192
Footballguy
I think dynasty wise, he's unquestionably a stud. I'd bend over backwards to get him if I thought my leaguemates would be willing to let him go.
Redraft wise, I think Williams is enough of a thorn in your side that his draft spot in redraft is hard to justify.
If we get to training camp and it's clear that Williams is on the bench it changes. But I think Williams has had enough success that they'll let him steal touches.
Redraft wise, I think Williams is enough of a thorn in your side that his draft spot in redraft is hard to justify.
If we get to training camp and it's clear that Williams is on the bench it changes. But I think Williams has had enough success that they'll let him steal touches.
Pretty much how I see it as well. I'm through the roof on CEH but it's hard to envision Williams not being a factor but one area I diverge from you is I still think his redraft cost is justifiable and I say that with respect to the other RB's that are going in the range he goes and the upside of his payoff. Might be best to not draft a RB at all where he goes but if you are in the RB market he's going off as a late second, RB14. He may not even be someone you want to put in your lineup to start the season, and that's rough on a guy you are using a second round pick on, but I think he's got a chance to easily hit top 14 with league winning type upside. That's why I think it's justifiable, not saying it's the move to make only that in that range it makes sense to me, especially so in high stakes type leagues were you are searching for that max season ending upside.
Saying all that I listened to a podcast a few days ago where they discussed a weighted poll of 10 high stakes players most overrated list and CEH came out on top.
jm192
Footballguy
Great point. Nothing.
I suspect as time goes on, they'll give him more of the workload. I could be wrong.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
EVERY team has more than one running back. Most running backs don't take 100% of the load. If Damien Williams is what is scaring you about CEH then you really must not be a believer in the rookie's talent. Which is perfectly fine, but my suggestion is to not let Williams be the reason for passing on CEH.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
The Chiefs saw something special enough in CEH to draft him in the first round. Could he turn out to be a massive bust? Sure, that is possible. But I don't think they drafted him with the thought that they were going to give him 3-4 carries a game and let him run 2-3 passing routes.
I think it's just a natural progression of things. Team has vet RB they trust, they invest premium pick in young RB, don't want to turn reigns over to the rookie in week one because they have a capable back to help carry the load. If things go well grow the rookie's role that year or he plays well enough the team has confidence with him taking on a bigger role the next year. If the existing vet continues to play well he'll probably price himself out since team would be in market for simply a low cost backup via FA or draft and if Williams plays awful maybe KC won't want him back. All of this provided the rookie RB looks good with his chances and come out of the year looking healthy for the next season, if he falters or looks awful then this whole thing changes.
This is the same thing to me most rookie RB's are facing this year and I'd give you the same answer for them as well so this is not some pro-CEH opinion. You could have asked that same exact question and just flipped KC and Williams with Indy and Mack. Dobbins and Swift are arguably worse since they got RB's already signed up for 2 years that might put a drain on them, of course Ingram is not an extension candidate if he makes it that far. Akers situation is a little unique depending on if Henderson's role grows but all of the other top RB's got an existing vet signed for a year or two that is not a some kind of garbage RB that figures to be a bit of a drain especially early in year one if everyone is healthy.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
And also I'm not sure why people don't get that these top schools (Bama, LSU. OSU, etc.) get the absolute best prospects - and multiple top players at multiple positions - and have to get the all playing time so the next batch of top players don't say "I'm not going to commit to Bama just to sit on the bench for 2 seasons".
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I honestly don't understand this thought process as it relates to CEH and Williams. Yes CEH is a good receiver but he also just ran for over 1400 yards and excelled against elite competition. Damien Williams career high in NFL is 498 rushing yards in a the no defense Big 12 he ran for 946 as his best and that was way back in 2012. He's also not shown an ability to be durable despite carrying a meager load most of his career and even post-Hunt has not even averaged 10 carries a game for KC. I don't know what about any of that would make someone think CE's role is nothing but a pass catching specialist.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
You're not really addressing what he said. Those teams surely did not draft those RBs in the first round not to feature them. A first round draft price doesn't preclude a player from busting but it obviously indicates that a team wants him to be heavily involved in the offense.
