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RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC (1 Viewer)

Kingpin90 said:
I don't mind at all. If you don't want to draft a guy who is capable of putting up rushing totals with the likes of Derrick Henry, Dalvin Cook, and Aaron Jones be my guest!
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lol.

I've already said too much. You do you, friend. I'll hide this comment if you hide the one above it. Stick around this time, mang.

 
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Kingpin90 said:
It's a pretty ####ty spin and honestly would make me question that person's intelligence since he only accomplished that feat once. It would also imply that Kenyan Drake is better than:

JK Dobbins
Alvin Kamara
Nick Chubb


Makes more sense to write his performance off as an outlier and doing so makes the data make more sense. But if you want to die on the hill that Drake is better than CEH, by proxy you're saying he's better than Dobbins, Kamara, and Chubb as well. Which, you are free to that opinion, I think it was an outlier against a crappy Dallas defense that was historically bad, but you are entitled to interpret as you wish.


What are outliers in data?
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Or we could just look at the rushing yards, receiving yards, receptions and TDs since that is how fantasy is scored. He basically performed exactly like Drake per game last year and nothing like Kamara or Chubb. 

 
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Kingpin90 said:
Run the numbers for me. I spent an half hour gathering data to convey my argument.

If you have data that shows otherwise, present it. I don't have time for inferences, pal. 

Also, unless you think Drake is getting starter carries this season your entire premise is kind of pointless and not worth discussing. Maybe Drake is better? If he's not a starter, does it matter?

Anyway. Looking forward to the data that supports the argument you're trying to make.
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amazing trolling, truly entertaining me 

 
Before we got sidetracked by football, I was writing that the last book that they teach people about to become priests is the Book Of Revelations. In order to have an ordered existence, one must give up reason on reason's grounds.

 
Kingpin90 said:
I want a list of every RB on my list so we can analyze it objectively. Limiting the field is the equivalent of cherry picking.

You understand this?
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This is the list you asked for.. the list he gave you and you challenged.

I do not understand.

 
CEH strikes me as about appropriate for ADP...not a huge ceiling because of redzone challenges, but a great floor because of offense and receptions.

Solid pick in the 3rd if you go WR early.

 
Why should we limit ourselves to highest rushing output in a single, specific game -- shouldn't we look at something that correlates better to predictive performance?

In other words, what have you established about points within specific iterations that allows us to assume it is predictive?

 
Kingpin90 said:
So do you guys think Cee Dee Lamb is a bad pick because of his PPG? Or are you able to distinguish the difference between past performance and upside?
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It depends if individual games are predictive, like I just said. How sticky is the statistic that you're working with? I would imagine it's probably not all that sticky, at least from I've read about fantasy football. YMMV with your own data sets. I haven't heard any argument even remotely advanced by statisticians that two games of performance out of sixteen is sticky at all. Indeed, they'd probably say that your prediction wasn't backed by your own data.

 
Induction, deduction.

Induction is when we take a particular, or a premise, and extrapolate out to make a claim about a logical whole.

Deduction is to take a postulation and infer from it that which must be true about its particulars.

Statistics is induction. We take a particular instance or instances and argue for a conclusion about the whole based upon that set of particulars that we know. The more data we accrue, the more evidence we have for our conclusion, but we never have a whole.

 
His best traits are he plays for the Chiefs and he was a first rounder. He is a good, not great back who will need to more involved in the passing game to increase value as his goal line abilities are very limited.

 
Kingpin90 said:
You don't have to. I used it to point his rushing talent compared to other elite backs. Showing he is on par on the ground.

If you would like to make a list with different metrics to argue why he won't produce. I'd love to see your data.

I also just posted a link showing he is in line for more receptions. So if he's already as good as Jones and Cook on the ground, upside wise, him getting MORE TARGETS should be a huge reason to draft him.

Since that's a deficiency some point out he has based on PPG.
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Mmmhmm

I spit the hook before, then I thought you making a broader point about God and belief. I figured we could take points about induction and the anecdotal and extrapolate something out of which we could laugh about. But you seem determined to prove, when predictive statistics tells you PPG is the more sticky stat, that individual games mean something predictively. But within the context of fantasy football, we know that to be untrue.

So I'm spitting the hook again right. about. now.

 
Kingpin90 said:
He had a 138 rushing yard game and a 161 rushing yard game as a rookie. You know the ceiling is there. If he eclipses 100 yards in any of the 3 games he missed and he's easily a 1,100+ yard rusher with whatever touchdowns and receiving yards comes with that.
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The 161 yard game was a bad weather game against one of the worst rush defenses in the league, more of a fluke than anything that can be expected to happen again or used to predict future performance. 

 
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CEH has one more thing going for him besides being a first rounder and playing for the Chiefs. Andy Reid personally selected him as his running back.

Knowing how successful Reid has been, that one thing is worth at least five other things.

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
CEH has one more thing going for him besides being a first rounder and playing for the Chiefs. Andy Reid personally selected him as his running back.

Knowing how successful Reid has been, that one thing is worth at least five other things.
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Simple, straight forward.

No effort to bemoan how much time and effort it took you to type it out on your keyboard.

Huge fan.

 
Kingpin90 said:
For whoever is interested (looking at you @Ilov80s & @rockaction), I put together a list of HIGHEST rushing yard outputs for RB in a single game for 2020 (since you know that's how our sport is scored):

1.) 253 Yards  (J Taylor)
2.) 250 Yards  (D Henry)
3.) 215 Yards  (D Henry)
4.) 212 Yards  (D Henry)
5.) 206 Yards  (D Cook)
6.) 192 Yards (R Jones)
7.) 183 Yards  (J Wilson)
8.) 181 Yards  (D Cook)
9.) 178 Yards  (D Henry)
10.) 171 Yards  (C Akers)
11.) 168 Yards  (A Jones)
12.) 164 Yards  (K Drake)
13.) 163 Yards  (D Cook)
14.) 161 Yards  (Edwards-Helaire)
15.) 160 Yards  (J Dobbins)
16.) 155 Yards  (A Kamara)
17.) 150 Yards  (J Taylor)
18.) 147 Yards  (D Henry)
19.) 146 Yards  (D Montgomery)
20.) 145 Yards  (A Jones)
21.) 144 Yards  (N Chubb)
22.) 138 Yards  (Edwards-Helaire)
23.) 133 Yards  (D Henry)
24.) 132 Yards  (D Cook)
25.) 131 Yards  (M Gordon)
26.) 130 Yards  (D Cook)
27. ) 130 Yards  (A Jones)
28.) 129 Yards  (J Jacobs)
29.) 128 Yards  (J Robinson)
30.) 128 Yards  (A Gibson)
31.) 126 Yards  (N Chubb)
32.) 124 Yards  (N Chubb)
33.) 121 Yards  (D Harris)
34.) 120 Yards  (D Cook)
35.) 119 Yards  (J Robinson)

Despite being "slow" and "undersized" as people in here are saying, as a rookie he was able to produce the 14th and 22nd HIGHEST rushing outputs of the season. Considering there are 272 games in an NFL season and each team has a starting RB, that's 544 different RBs starts (minus his own 13 starts) that he is competing against.


The only players with a single game yardage output HIGHER yardage output that him were:

Dalvin Cook, Kenyan Drake, Aaron Jones, Derrick Henry, Jeff Wilson, Ronald Jones, Cam Akers, and Jonathan Taylor

Only 6 other players were able to accrue a higher yardage total than him and if you want to eliminate Jeff Wilson, Kenyan Drake, Cam Akers, and Ronald Jones as outliers (since they only made the list once, whereas Edwards-Helaire made it twice, as a rookie no less). That really only gives you 4 guys  in the entire league with more upside than THE ROOKIE.



You can call him injury prone, undersized, underwhelming, whatever non-statistical metric you want to use to justify not drafting him but the facts remain:


Out of 544 RB starts, he produced the 14th and 22nd HIGHEST (non flukish) output only being outclassed by the best RBs in the game (Henry, Cook, Jones, and Taylor). But sure, don't draft the RB in arguably the best offense in the league. He's too small! ;)
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Sorry, I am open-minded towards CEH, but all this list shows me is I should have drafted Henry or Cook.

 
Kingpin90 said:
I feel like the guy using Kenyan Drakes one game outlier to debunk the relevance of single game rushing outputs and the fact that CEH ranks amongst the league's best backs is the troll.
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Drake's one-game sample size is an outlier, but CEH's two games can't be? You just argued yourself into a corner. Sample-size methodology isn't with you at all.

All good tho, I am not arguing against CEH... I've stated already his extreme upside IMO, is the #1 fantasy RB in 2021 (very unlikely in fairness, but a non-zero probability). But I am arguing against your methodology for validating him. Two top rushing games out of 16 is whatevs IMO.

And whoever comp'd him to MJD is smoking the goods. Do you remember how many long TDs MJD broke in his prime? CEH isn't capable of those breakaways. What he is capable of (maybe) is scoring a lot of Chiefs yards and TDs. That shouldn't be dismissed but neither should his (lack of) burst and high-end speed compared to a freak like MJD.

 
LawFitz said:
And whoever comp'd him to MJD is smoking the goods. Do you remember how many long TDs MJD broke in his prime? CEH isn't capable of those breakaways. What he is capable of (maybe) is scoring a lot of Chiefs yards and TDs. That shouldn't be dismissed but neither should his (lack of) burst and high-end speed compared to a freak like MJD.
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Man I remember my buddies and I used to make comments about how often MJD and CJ2K touchdowns looked like kick-off / punt returns. They were both so electric.

 
hamsterdam said:
Man I remember my buddies and I used to make comments about how often MJD and CJ2K touchdowns looked like kick-off / punt returns. They were both so electric.
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Yup and Jamaal Chuck too. There is only one RB in the entire league right now that is in their class and he's going #1 overall despite missing most of last year due to injuries. And even CMC doesn't have the 7th gear that the aforementioned three did. They had were ludicrous speed.

 
I overbought the hype last year and took CEH at 1.7. Blech. This year he fell to me in the 3rd after I went Adams/Chubb in 1/2. I'm more than happy to have him as a 2nd RB. Is he someone I would want as my RB1? Absolutely not. But he's likely going to settle right into that zone where he should have a pretty decent floor most weeks with some potential big plays mixed in. He's no Kamara or Cook, but he's also no Davantae Booker or Jamaal Williams. 

 
hamsterdam said:
Man I remember my buddies and I used to make comments about how often MJD and CJ2K touchdowns looked like kick-off / punt returns. They were both so electric.
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I just loved that in the early days of FF when a lot of NFL players crapped all over FF, MJD loved it, and actually played fantasy football. And every year he was in the league, MJD took himself with his 1st pick. 

That’s gold right there. 

 
Cyclones said:
I overbought the hype last year and took CEH at 1.7. Blech. This year he fell to me in the 3rd after I went Adams/Chubb in 1/2. I'm more than happy to have him as a 2nd RB. Is he someone I would want as my RB1? Absolutely not. But he's likely going to settle right into that zone where he should have a pretty decent floor most weeks with some potential big plays mixed in. He's no Kamara or Cook, but he's also no Davantae Booker or Jamaal Williams. 
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CEH in Reid’s offense could be a league winner as a RB2. 

reportedly worked on his receiving all off-season & Mahomes has recently been complimenting his receiving skills, saying they installed more packages for CEH in space. 

Which is what Reid did with Westbrook, to much success. 

I’m excited to see it. 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
CEH in Reid’s offense could be a league winner as a RB2. 

reportedly worked on his receiving all off-season & Mahomes has recently been complimenting his receiving skills, saying they installed more packages for CEH in space. 

Which is what Reid did with Westbrook, to much success. 

I’m excited to see it. 
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 Brian Westbrook was a man amongst boys back then.   Always very heavily used, plenty of TDs, carries and catches and the best part of all was he was continuously underdrafted in fantasy.

 Possibly my favorite FF player ever.  Well, he and David Johnson in his heyday.

 TZM

 
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TZMarkie said:
 Michael Westbrook was a man amongst boys back then.   Always very heavily used, plenty of TDs, carries and catches and the best part of all was he was continuously underdrafted in fantasy.

 Possibly my favorite FF player ever.  Well, he and David Johnson in his heyday.

 TZM
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I had him (Brian) a few of those seasons as well (and Johnson in his rookie year) - Westbrook never let me down. 

 
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Tanner9919 said:
he looks pretty ordinary to me, like another Josh Jacobs type guy.  I think the value play here is McKinnon. 
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Josh Jacobs is an outstanding NFL running back. If you’re saying Josh Jacobs is “ordinary“ then you haven’t watched enough Josh Jacobs.

I agree with Harris football, and it would be worth your while to watch his film breakdown of Jacobs. Every game Jacobs has at least one or two “wow“ runs.

I don’t think he’s a good comp for CEH regardless. 

 
Narrator's update: CEH was still small, slow, and overweight. Not a good combination no matter where you drafted him nor who selected him.

 
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Chiefs coach Andy Reid said RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire (ankle) is expected to play in Week 1 against the Browns.

“It looked like they’re moving around pretty good,” Reid said of Darrel Williams (concussion) and Edwards-Helaire. “I think we’ll be okay there.” It was trending this way for both the moment Kansas City moved on from Darwin Thompson as the team's insurance amid final cuts. Managers should consider CEH a fringe RB1 for the season opener with massive upside if he's allotted third-down reps out the gates.

SOURCE: Adam Schefter on Twitter

Sep 6, 2021, 4:07 PM ET
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Clyde Edwards-Helaire rushed 14 times for 43 yards, hauling in all three of his targets for 29 yards in Kansas City's Week 1 win over the Browns.

Edwards-Helaire's raw box score is rather disappointing, but he did encouragingly handle 14-of-15 backfield carries and see 100% of the team's running back targets, only being relieved for Darrel Williams (1/4) following a 14-yard catch-and-run down the sideline. He was even in on 3rd downs in place of Williams, which was not the case last year. Fantasy managers should keep the faith in CEH as a low-end RB1 given this usage, especially for next week's salivating shootout against the Ravens.
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